Daily Outlook: Good morning/evening PipHutters! There was no signal yesterday so no trades to review, but the EURUSD was very, very bearish on the day. The pair dropped about 90 pips – a lot but we’ve seen larger drops. The more impressive thing was how it dropped – like clockwork we’ve had our past 10 consecutive 4h candles be bearish. That is 40 hours of straight drops on the 4h charts!
Technically we remain pointed in the downward direction here and, in general, I continue to look for bearish signals to short. The biggest threat to the trade that I see is the possibility of a triangle consolidation wedge forming on the daily charts – if we see a bounce off of 1.2630 then it could signal the pair is going to range for the day.
1.2700 is the key pivot I am watching – above this level I am short-term bullish, below I am bearish.
As always check the candlestick alerts for intraday trading opps and watch out for news events on the forex calendar.
Trading Idea: Primary trade will be to look for opportunities to short below 1.2700 with targets at 1.2675, 1.2645, 1.2615 and 1.2585 for 115 pips profit.
In general I am looking for shorts below 1.2700 and I’m short-term bullish above 2700. A threat to the trade is a possible wedge consolidation pattern that could form if 1.2630 is not broken to the downside.
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August 31, 2010 at 14:04
Anyone who knows,
With the consumer confidence being green, does this typically means up or down for EUR/USD?
August 31, 2010 at 14:04
south street!!!
August 31, 2010 at 14:05
look at candles before plse but really it s gd news fr dollar
August 31, 2010 at 14:05
channel doown forming on M15, projected direction is down. Maybe yes maybe no.
August 31, 2010 at 14:08
As long as we dont dive below 2700 I remain Bullish for now. (As also per Mark’s todays signal!). I think we’ll see an upmove soon. Lets see and GL
August 31, 2010 at 14:09
there is a big “mounten: himalaya” near 2733 i think !!!
August 31, 2010 at 14:15
u are right friend, we are meant to trade what we c and not what we think, what i see now is that we are trying to present level that is becoming resistance however, i am out on all trade. No loss and maginal profit as net result. I I will go short if 1.280 is hit or if we drop/close below 1.270
August 31, 2010 at 14:17
Kayus… how’s your plan for USDCAD. It looks bullish to me.
August 31, 2010 at 14:26
Friend, i am not monitoring thatpair now, i am focusing on w/u and u/c.
August 31, 2010 at 14:27
That’s what I meant…isn’t “u/c” USDCAD ?
August 31, 2010 at 14:31
Dont mind my typo error, i think i am a prof in typo error, Haha!! I mean eur/usd and usd/chf not u/cad
August 31, 2010 at 14:37
hahaha! Doesn’t matter, the currencies are all gone crazy the last few days anyways. Typos can also lead to PIPs!
August 31, 2010 at 14:19
Cool…looks like we’ve got the same idea to short around 1.2770s.
If it breaks and stays above 1.2800, than I’m convinced that it is bullish. Otherwise, I’d rather stay on the bear side for this one.
August 31, 2010 at 14:13
Shooting Star EURUSD 1h 2010.08.31 13:00 1.27190 bearish
What do you all say? Short?
August 31, 2010 at 14:15
It’s still climbing., so short at either R1(1.2778) or R2(1.2821)
1.2778 is probably better since the currency has already moved more than 100 hundreds for today.
August 31, 2010 at 14:22
yes john
August 31, 2010 at 14:33
we should wait if its breaks 2780.cos it becomes bullish,rare.
August 31, 2010 at 14:24
yes but lets wait for the train to take off, for now it is ranging. Fundamental plus technical signal is sating SHORT
August 31, 2010 at 14:26
Yup…true. We have all been waiting for the train that hasn’t taken off yet. The last week and a half, it’s been between 1.2770 and 1.2630.
That’s why I remain neutral and try bounces between S/R. Of course, at the rate of the range, it’s wiser to short at a high for today.
August 31, 2010 at 14:29
it may not proceed up again today but it is better to miss out than lose money. I have set order to short at 1.275 with sl at 1.281, Hope the bait is bitten
August 31, 2010 at 14:36
@kayus we always hav better setup brothr.
August 31, 2010 at 14:39
yup… no trades for me yet for today.
August 31, 2010 at 14:41
u are right and i may decided to go short if the candle close with a reasonable drop.
August 31, 2010 at 14:44
Shooting Star EURUSD 1h 2010.08.31 13:00 1.27190 bearish
Darn it! GOod for 15 pips already..hehaha.
August 31, 2010 at 15:06
Good! friend, i will wait till pullback to 1.272 or stay out . See u guys later, my laptop battery is runing out. less than 10 mins to go
August 31, 2010 at 14:29
dt forget himalaya let see wre next candles wll close
August 31, 2010 at 14:43
ok..please post on what your interpretations on the next 1H candle is.
THanks
August 31, 2010 at 14:47
Two 1H bearish candles in a row would be awesome confirmation!
August 31, 2010 at 14:34
going short on usd/chf these past days is almost risk free, when will the buck recover from the swissy?
August 31, 2010 at 14:35
Swissy is getting closer to parity (1.0), I’ll definitely have a long waiting there…hahaha.
August 31, 2010 at 14:43
ok friend, just dont speculatte BUT when the usd will resume recovery oit will b rapid. The eur/usd drop will also be rapid when it is established too.
August 31, 2010 at 14:46
Sure. All I meant is that 1.00 is a psychological level, and won’t break without a fight. Regardless of trend, expect a strong bounce there before it goes wherever.
August 31, 2010 at 14:46
i asked the last time if u use autochartist? it is another tool that take the stress off you in locating emerging and completed patterns in almost 27 currencies and multi timeframes M15,30,60,240 and daily charts.
August 31, 2010 at 14:48
No I havent. Is it an MT4 program or an online service?
August 31, 2010 at 14:50
Nevermind…I googled it. IBFX has a free subscription to this service!
I’ll take a look at it.
Thanks.
Let me know how you use it.
August 31, 2010 at 14:56
Alpari also offer free service on it and some other broker. When u subscribe they will send u some video tutorial but i alrady got along nefore the tutorial. It is actually simple. send me a private message with email and i will foreward the tutorail info for you.
August 31, 2010 at 14:53
@Kayus,
How do you use this program? Specifically, do you use the emerging patterns or the completed patterns to get into a trade? Also, I noticed with the program that it seem as though it gives you target areas opposite of the direction of the chart pattern. Could you give me any information of how you use the target ranges given?
August 31, 2010 at 14:58
Hi Lisa, it is just a tool that help u locate patterns. Ur decesion is yours. When u observe a pattern, after pattern is complete wait for confirmation of validity before trading the pattern.
August 31, 2010 at 14:43
Hearing of decent EURUSD supply into 1.2725/30 for the fix
August 31, 2010 at 14:47
How do u mean Friend?
August 31, 2010 at 14:57
Month end flows suggesting USD demand into the fix
August 31, 2010 at 14:59
meaning field day for the bears?
August 31, 2010 at 14:51
Another doji forming on H1, if completer it means indecision still on, trafic to go either way BUT the bear may prevail. Any input from CP users
August 31, 2010 at 14:53
Hanging man forming on M30, all pointing to the south, i guess the umpire is about to blow the start whistle or is it a start shoot? Hahaha
August 31, 2010 at 15:05
How does the Hanging man look like now?
The candlestick alert doesn’t show any 30M or 1H formation at this time.
August 31, 2010 at 15:09
not well formed .
August 31, 2010 at 14:53
mb we can see again the high of the day i closed my short from highest level i wait for another short!!
August 31, 2010 at 15:02
Nice, i think and SEE that the bear seems to be for real. I will go short at 1.272 SL 1.281
August 31, 2010 at 15:07
cool. 1.2720 is indeed R1 on 4H charts.
But I’m like, OH man…not again. Another day of 1.2700 to 1.2600…hehaha
August 31, 2010 at 15:11
Well..it’s peeking below 1.2700 now. If it stays there, we can short a few pips anywhere below as the day goes by. We could try Mark’s signal of shorting around 1.2700 and watch it drift lower.
August 31, 2010 at 15:08
That was a good strategy sahara. Did you just short at yesterday’s high?
August 31, 2010 at 15:13
today we hve seen 2740
August 31, 2010 at 15:16
Yeah…but how did you know 1.2740 was the high at that moment?
August 31, 2010 at 18:58
unever know until it has happended. My short order didnt hit less than 2pips. Tmr is another day.
August 31, 2010 at 15:10
europe wll close in 20 mn and low volume can push it higher that ‘s why i m waiting another opprtinity to go short if i missed it it s not a problem!!! i think like that
August 31, 2010 at 15:11
Good thinking. Thanks for the tip.
August 31, 2010 at 15:15
Nice. It did bump up a little. I will keep that in my brain now…1530GMT is London session close, and expect to see a jolt.
August 31, 2010 at 15:18
I think the E/U has found some good support here around 2700 so far. Thats why I will change my view in thinking Short not diving below 2700 any longer but only below 2680. Of course with the right confirmation.
August 31, 2010 at 15:14
How sweet can these Pairs (sometimes) be to you, I almost beginning to fall in love with the E/G today :-)
August 31, 2010 at 15:15
@saharaview….how sure are u over it…and which indicator do u used in analyzing it…pls….
August 31, 2010 at 15:24
only S R with CCI and RSI (pivot daily) with candles and news if confirming my plan!!
August 31, 2010 at 15:25
i m not sure but all the i said wt i think
August 31, 2010 at 15:44
and y have to know the direction of the trend if it s bearish i only short when it s uptrend i go only long sur i choice my entry point;;; now when it s in a range in consolidation i make different but the first wt i do in my chart (daily) wt is it north south or east and with my answer i know where i go
August 31, 2010 at 15:20
FOMC in abt 2,5 hours !
August 31, 2010 at 15:28
Good point. Event risk everybody!
August 31, 2010 at 15:34
bullish doji EURUSD 30m 2010.08.31 15:00 1.27110 bullish
Shooting Star EURUSD 1h 2010.08.31 13:00 1.27190 bearish
Alright. I will wait until after FOMC minutes.
August 31, 2010 at 15:38
Fly baby fly, as high as a kyte (E/G) :)
August 31, 2010 at 16:07
I think you have a Long riding this one … am I right?
August 31, 2010 at 17:00
Yes, I am. And do not regret it so far :)
August 31, 2010 at 15:39
Long / one horse with four hooves, Short / one camel with with eight toes. Dust is starting to blow here in Oklahoma on the Little Sahara State Park. Might close out and head to the tent. Hay! Hey!
August 31, 2010 at 15:41
I haven’t had a good laugh in this joint here for weeks, but you did manage to get me crying from laughing man. :)
August 31, 2010 at 16:16
USDCHF – it will be ideal to short at 1.0219, on a pullback.
EURUSD – wait and see. Still sticking to the pivot area of 1.2700 for now.
So many days of consolidation only leads to a huge train sailing off one of these days. Maybe NFP will kick that off for us? We’ll see. Don’t forget Labor Day weekend will dampen the steam on the train.
August 31, 2010 at 16:22
My personal opinion on where EurUSD and the other USD currencies “should” go. US economy is showing of bad 2Q results. The US dollar “should” in theory strengthen, since people are pulling their equity out from stocks.
That should support bullish USDCHF(swiss intervention, oversold), bullish USDJPY(BOJ hates strong JPY, oversold), and our lovely bearish EURUSD(we all know this one is waiting to happen).
So, technically and fundamentally, watch out for the “big break”. Hope you get in. Good luck.
August 31, 2010 at 20:02
by the time u c 1.021,it is most liekly that the reverssal has begun. I hav a short order at 1.018
August 31, 2010 at 16:58
In EUR/USD there is a confluence of several fibonacci levels around 1.2680/85. It looks like this may be near term support
August 31, 2010 at 17:01
Cool. So, we are hovering at a crucial ‘pivot’ point now.
Well, no signs of which direction yet. I’m thinking of sitting out until next week…LOL
August 31, 2010 at 17:55
yes johnny we are near fib daily 0.236 (near 2690)
August 31, 2010 at 17:39
20 mins to Ben’s speech i expecting high volatility.
August 31, 2010 at 17:54
Fasten your seat belts and mind your steps :)
August 31, 2010 at 17:56
nice to see this avatar my friend
August 31, 2010 at 17:59
Its a too long story my dear Sahara. But I am, (just arrrived), back home (again).
Hope to be seeing you a lot in here.
Good luck my friend.
August 31, 2010 at 18:01
big news i m vry hpy for you!!!
August 31, 2010 at 18:05
Welcome back Johnny!
Lot’s of good discussions today, lovely to see that.
August 31, 2010 at 18:10
Thanks Mike. Its good to see you too again. Hope to be joining you as much as possible from now on again.
I saw a posting today. Whats that about you injury/leg. Nothing seruious I hope? Take care my friend
August 31, 2010 at 18:22
Well it’s due to recent hot days, an infection found it’s place in my knee and theres not much that can be done, we just wait for it to clear itself. The bad part is, that it reached the ligament causing some necrosis or so. Therefore my leg is in a cast and the wound is wiiiideeee open to clear. Glad it’s vacation time not university time. Take care too.
August 31, 2010 at 18:51
@MIKE Treat it seriously Mike, and keep seeing the Doctor or go for 2nd opinion at some other Doctor. Dont stay walking around with it for to long ok? It may not be a big thing (As you pretend to put it) but legs and knees are important limbs!~Just keep a close eye to it and find good medical help ! Wish you all the best.
August 31, 2010 at 19:13
Congratulations
August 31, 2010 at 19:48
Nice avatar lol… looks like the Bull has You by the horn!
August 31, 2010 at 17:58
@johnny. Hope you have come to stay
August 31, 2010 at 18:01
Thanks for the compliment Ovyeh, I’ll try to join you as much as possible. But still there’s a lot to do for me. GL to you
August 31, 2010 at 18:04
FOMC minutes anytime now. Let’s see how everybody interpretes it.
August 31, 2010 at 18:05
FED OFFICIALS SAID INFLATION LIKELY TO REMAIN `SUBDUED’
FOMC ANTICIPATED ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL PICK UP NEXT YEAR
FED SAYS REINVESTING IN MBS MIGHT BE `DESIRABLE’ IN FUTURE
SOME FOMC MEMBERS: WANING FISCAL STIMULUS MAY IMPEDE RECOVERY
August 31, 2010 at 18:06
FOMC MEMBERS `VIEWED THE RISK OF DEFLATION AS QUITE SMALL’
MANY POLICY MAKERS SAID DOWNTURN IN HOUSING PRICES MAY BE OVER
FOMC MEMBERS SAW LABOR MARKET WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED
August 31, 2010 at 18:07
FED OFFICIALS SAW RISK AUGUST DECISION WOULD SEND WRONG SIGNAL
August 31, 2010 at 18:18
hahaha…Beuracratic way of saying .. “We don’t really know what’s gonna happen. Let’s just hope the banks lend money and employers hire..alright? Now, go back and play. toodaloo!”.
Now let’s see what the traders think.
August 31, 2010 at 18:21
Quite right John. Its all in the game :) But they don’t fool us do they?
Watching G/J at the moment. Might be worth a Short according to me :)
August 31, 2010 at 18:24
Yeah… that’s the greatest about Forex. You can trade whichever way, whatever the economy is.
GBPJPY..hmm..haven’t seen that for a long time. Looks like it has been bearing for a while now. Good luck.
As for EUR and CHF, I have no clue. Probably wait until Friday.
More exciting news… I’m picking up my first HD DVR from comcast later today. They also gave me free HBO for 6 months!
That means, “Stay Aside” , and bring out the popcorn!
August 31, 2010 at 18:27
Popcorn?….I have had that for weeks….Do you drink something with htat or just chew and swallow?
August 31, 2010 at 18:35
Chew and swallow. Frankly I hate popcorn. Kids love it though.
hmm..making me hungry. Let me reach into my drawer and chew on some soft choc chip cookies for now.
August 31, 2010 at 18:22
The post-Fed reaction is somewhat muted as markets continue to drift sideways. It appears investors are more focused on the labor data that will be released later in the week
August 31, 2010 at 18:32
Yup… bad US news is in the air again. Obama is under fire again.
I hope bad EUR news comes back into play. US news is so mixed. EUR bombs better than US.
I’m sure we all loved the earlier months of this year when EUR bombs made us a lot of pips on the South Train.
August 31, 2010 at 18:37
Yeah…Not even Mark had to figure it out back then. Just informing us to ‘keep shorting’… Nice way of trading for days :)
August 31, 2010 at 18:25
Some dissent evident here but majority of policy makers seem agreed in additional stimulus measures if needed. The ‘weaker labor market’ and ‘downside risks to recovery were larger’ commentary seem to imply more easing to come on further data deterioration although many policy makers saw an end to the housing downturn. The dissent within Fed officials seems more-so focused on the potential effects of additional stimulus as some voiced concerns of significant slowing in growth without while others stated the effects would be small. Slightly lower equities but overall muted reaction from the markets as the Minutes did not reveal any extraordinary market moving insights.
August 31, 2010 at 18:27
U.S. Treasury yields soften and the S&P dips into negative territory as it seems the downside risks to recovery are larger given the FOMC minutes
August 31, 2010 at 18:28
with all th candle in (daily weekly monthly) mb if up we will “play” bwin 2690 and 2880
August 31, 2010 at 18:31
Hi my friend. I think at first I would like to keep the max. to 2780 if you dont mind (Around this level is strong reistance. If we could manage to break then the way to 2900 is open according to me:))
August 31, 2010 at 18:35
or mb in the other side the question wher will closed!
August 31, 2010 at 18:37
Yeah, I was hoping to see it today.
August 31, 2010 at 18:40
Well, its nice to see you in here Lisa, thats for sure :)
August 31, 2010 at 19:03
No, Johnny
It is nice, nice to see you here.
August 31, 2010 at 18:35
Jái beaucoup de soif :)
August 31, 2010 at 18:36
in chat room w have beer coffe but JW net yet
August 31, 2010 at 18:39
I knew it, I knew it…Mark doesnt drink! So no booze in the Pro Chat Room he? Well better stay in here then :)
August 31, 2010 at 18:42
really CP is a” big thing”
August 31, 2010 at 19:33
welcome back johnny :-)
August 31, 2010 at 18:42
I have to pay attention now, E/U diving below 2680. Soon have to (still) considering a Short (Dont hope so tho!)
August 31, 2010 at 18:49
I dont know. It’s getting late in the day. It will probably go to yesterday’s low of about 1.2630s maybe..that’s all. This is NOT the real BEAR train. Just a drifter.
August 31, 2010 at 18:58
NY is red!!
August 31, 2010 at 18:59
yup. DOW is below 10000 .
It’s the two anniversary of the Great Recession.
August 31, 2010 at 19:11
Well, better have my coffee+ first and come back little later to watch which direction this goes.
Take care all
August 31, 2010 at 19:14
Havnet had coffee+ for ages :) Just some hot brownish brew, but sure wasnt coffee. (Gonna spoil my self tonight…(No, not inviting no-one, be assured!)
August 31, 2010 at 19:16
Btw G/J is moving…And so am I :)
August 31, 2010 at 19:34
y can take my second camel!!!
August 31, 2010 at 19:35
some good moves around – enjoy :-)
August 31, 2010 at 19:38
this one 30mil/h
August 31, 2010 at 19:40
Ive got birds, dogs, ducks, horses and a goar. So why not a Camel (Space enough). Sent her/him FOB to my doorstep please :)
Btw, is that the animal with one or two…(How do you call these things again?)…Balloons???
August 31, 2010 at 19:43
Omg…Is this Sabina? I remember each time I saw that avatar I chivered and shook..and got hot and cold together.
Are you still going to the Dance Festivals? Not lost your one shoe yet?
@Sahara…Goar=Goat.
August 31, 2010 at 19:46
today I was out playing golf. dance yes, the five rhythms, perhaps on thursday this week… will tell you about the shoe, when time is ripe *LOL*
August 31, 2010 at 19:40
oh those are race camels :-))
August 31, 2010 at 19:42
where is y spannish bull
August 31, 2010 at 19:43
not allowed any more in catalonia. can only let him out in madrid arena ;-)
August 31, 2010 at 19:47
My little Bully is in a love affaire these days. Cant blame him. So, dont depend on him these days, his head’s spinning and he’s got butterfly’s in his tommy.
But, I think we’ve a E/U rebound in the making here? Lets see
August 31, 2010 at 19:49
triple bullies bullish engulfing EU GU AU :-)
August 31, 2010 at 19:40
only one!!!
August 31, 2010 at 19:42
maroc or algerie camels? or tunisie?
August 31, 2010 at 19:43
tunisian one
August 31, 2010 at 19:44
it’s a very fine one then :-O
August 31, 2010 at 19:47
week end one
August 31, 2010 at 19:49
I see you’ve changed the avatar? Now we see the Master AND his Benz :)
August 31, 2010 at 19:50
i went to go short!!!
August 31, 2010 at 19:51
Dollar pares losses as equities looking for direction into the final 15 minutes of trading…
August 31, 2010 at 19:51
The S&P 500 and DJIA look to end the month with a greater than -4% monthly decline.
August 31, 2010 at 19:54
i ll see where next candle wll closed
August 31, 2010 at 19:56
&PIPHUT Mark, over 245 postings today…Bet you havent seen that number for a long time? Well, I’m happy so many Ole Pippers were around today and that made me feel good.
Thanks to all of them.
August 31, 2010 at 20:22
Iguess ur return caused it. Thye all eloped with CP but nice to hear from all today.
August 31, 2010 at 20:01
@PIPHUT Mark, over 245 postings today…Bet you havent seen that number for a long time? Well, I’m happy so many Ole Pippers were around today and that made me feel good.
Thanks to all of them.
(Error in At sign :))
August 31, 2010 at 20:02
gby all see y tomorrow
August 31, 2010 at 20:08
Goodbye my good friend. And dont forget to feed the animals affore you’re off to open the bottle of JW :)
Btw. Have you seen Zubair of Tuan lately???
August 31, 2010 at 20:05
see you :-)
August 31, 2010 at 20:07
@tr41nwr3ck
Seems to me you’ve just only recently joined Piphut?
This avatar of mine was given to me by my mother when I was born :) (Here in Piphut my friends dont remember me by name, just by my avatars. Which can be my Little Bully, or, when I am bearish I sometimes use my J.Walker avatar.
Good luck to you.