Daily Outlook: Good morning/evening, PipHutters! I stayed on the sidelines of yesterday’s signal as the pair charged through the resistance zone (1.2750) with so much as blinking on the 30m, 1h or 4h charts. With no confirmation there was no reason to enter short and it is a good thing: the pair eventually got as high as 1.2850! In hindsight I should have given more caution given CandlePro’s buy signal it gave on the daily charts.
Bulls Struggle to Maintain
Outlook is a bit muddied at the moment as it always is when we have strong retracements in the middle of trends. The question is always “is this part of a larger move to the upside or will we see the resumption of the downtrend soon”. The only answer is “the charts will tell us”, and to that end I see 1.2765 as the key daily support level: above this level I will stay bullish and look for longs, below this level and I will look for shorts on the day.
As always CP users can check multiple pairs/timeframes for intraday candlestick signals and you should watch out for news events on the forex calendar.
Trading Idea: Looking for longs above 1.2765 and shorts below. Trend is a bit muddy right now so standing aside is a good option for this pair, but my primary active trade will be a long with confirmation near 1.2765 with long targets at 1.2790, 1.2820, 1.2850 and 1.2880 for 115 pips profit.
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September 2, 2010 at 12:49
@johnny are u ready, US session will open up the expected height for the bull. GL
September 2, 2010 at 12:58
Indecision at the moment, a doji with xtra long wick forming on H1 meaning winer for the fight so far is DRAW. Scalper should have made some piping snatching pips btw the ranges.
September 2, 2010 at 13:05
Futures Pointing To Modestly Higher Open For Stocks
September 2, 2010 at 13:08
Fed Chairman Bernanke is testifying in Washington to the Financial Crisis Panel
September 2, 2010 at 13:56
what crisis?
September 2, 2010 at 13:12
Hi all, thanks for the signal Mark.
Does anyone have the view that Hurricane Earl will / could impact the USD?
Happy pippin’ to all :-)
September 2, 2010 at 13:15
Market talk of offers in EUR/USD 1.2815/20
September 2, 2010 at 13:21
I am note sure if its my pc.
But rates are not moving I see on —–
is this how attentively this market is following Mr Trichet’s words.
September 2, 2010 at 13:23
EUR/USD’s 21-day sma so far has held as resistance on the most recent test. The 21-day sma comes in around 1.2845/50
September 2, 2010 at 13:25
target this area johnny we need higher!!
September 2, 2010 at 13:28
Patient my dear friend, the best is yet to come :-)
September 2, 2010 at 13:27
TRICHET: IT’S UP TO IRISH GOVT TO DEAL WITH THEIR BANKS, IRELAND SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE DECISIONS
September 2, 2010 at 13:33
my chart tell me that today projected resistance is 1.285 i will consider quick short at that point. my view only
September 2, 2010 at 13:56
How did you long yesterday on USDCHF go? Yo probably at least locked in 60 pips..didn’t you?
September 2, 2010 at 19:42
i cancled it but reenter at 1.015 with a short position which did well. i have a pending long order at 1.0100 because i doubt if we shall attain parity though it was just 88 pips away yesterday.
September 2, 2010 at 13:36
if we test again 2840 we will see 2880 i think like that mb
September 2, 2010 at 13:42
Well thats Trichet over with. I’m sick of this uncertain range in the eur. Been scalping all afternoon. Scalping ugly too, as I call it. Could be some good news coming for the $ so watch yourselves if you are long.
September 2, 2010 at 13:49
Due out is U.S. pending home sales and factory orders for July. The market is looking for -1.0% from -2.6% for pending home sales and for +0.2% from prior -1.2% for factory orders
September 2, 2010 at 13:50
SO, everybody is bullish on EUR/USD ?
September 2, 2010 at 19:44
I bear bias, today ppresent a range market to favours bull and bear on scalping basis only.
September 2, 2010 at 13:50
hmmm…. last US news coming up in 10 mins.
I think market will move after that. US news is so far mixed.
Good productivity, but unemployment is still overall bad for the week.
September 2, 2010 at 14:02
Home sales were very positive
September 2, 2010 at 13:57
Got to go out soon, need to see my Lawyer. We might see a pullback to around 2760/65 where then Marks primary could come into play. I remain Bullish and that we will get 2900 in sight.
See you’ll later (hopefully).
September 2, 2010 at 14:01
Nice. That’s the layout I wished for yesterday in my Almanac.
September 2, 2010 at 14:02
Remember, the first copy is mine :-)
September 2, 2010 at 14:03
US Pending Home Sales (Jul) M/M 5.2% vs. Exo. -1.0% (Prev. -2.6, Rev. to -2.8)
September 2, 2010 at 14:08
not much movement yet. Maybe market is waiting the last of the last US news coming in 20 mins.
September 2, 2010 at 14:09
USD is strengthening as observed in USDCHF. That’s good news for us waiting to long EURUSD at 1.2770s.
September 2, 2010 at 20:29
How do u mean? if USD strenghtens then we are to go short not long.
September 2, 2010 at 14:13
Yep, very unclear direction now. Lets seen if the Chain Store Sales will make put some weight.
September 2, 2010 at 14:13
Please no chains anymore ok! Thanks :-)
September 2, 2010 at 14:15
yeah. WEll… looks like market is waiting for GAS report in 15 mins.
September 2, 2010 at 14:09
Come down a bit baby, to around 2760/70 where Joe Di Maggio awaits you!
September 2, 2010 at 14:13
hahahahah that’s a good one
September 2, 2010 at 14:17
Got to go now.
Dont forget to grab them where you can (Those Pips I mean).
TC & GL
September 2, 2010 at 14:25
If we miss the long at 1.2770s, we can try for the short at 1.2850 or 1.2880.
Whatever it is…don’t hold overnight cuz tomorrow is a BIG day (NFP)….you don’t want to caught with your pants down.
September 2, 2010 at 14:28
Depends who stands in front of you :-)
September 2, 2010 at 14:28
Jack in the Box (JACK) climbed at the open Thursday and has taken out the highs of the morning in the last few minutes. Shares are currently higher by 1.19 at $22.28.
Jack in the Box has broken out to a 3-month high Thursday morning and has also re-crossed its 200-day moving average.
Next comes Jack the Ripper’s news…..(No, that aint me!)
September 2, 2010 at 14:32
Just when I hold the handle of the door in my hand to go out it seems the fireworks starting?
The RSI is turning up…Keep pushing Guys…
September 2, 2010 at 14:47
Haha…Forex, I’m lovin it :-)
September 2, 2010 at 14:54
with! avatar plse!
September 2, 2010 at 14:58
cant my friend, Iam inmy car onwya to my lawyer. see you later. still early in us sess. give it time butkeep closely watcing!
September 2, 2010 at 14:57
johnny how do y work with RSI
September 2, 2010 at 15:04
Fireworks were a DUD this morning. If you have scalped…good for you. US news were mixed, and EU speeches were unclear.
NFP tomorrow baby!
September 2, 2010 at 17:56
trichets speech was quite clear in it message
September 2, 2010 at 15:38
What a quiet day. Its obvious tomorrow’s NFP is going to be very volatile. Trade very cautiously
September 2, 2010 at 16:13
Yup. Today is now over. Everyone’s waiting for the big day.
September 2, 2010 at 15:58
Nice new window in the top left corner that say “Hi Mike. Welcome back”. Good job Mark ;)
September 2, 2010 at 16:02
You should get a prize for the first person to notice/say anything about it :)
September 2, 2010 at 16:59
sorry MARK ,y are right thank you again for all
September 2, 2010 at 17:26
Your good spirit was listened to, my orthopedic cast was removed today ;)
September 2, 2010 at 17:34
ah nice my friend good news; health first
September 2, 2010 at 19:23
Apology for not mentioning, i thought it was my pc that is behavng funny just like the other one kept the log in button at the bottom of the page. Good job, keep it flying.
September 2, 2010 at 20:06
I recommend three months free access to CP
September 2, 2010 at 16:01
Yesterday was extremely slow in the US afternoon and I fear a repeat today.
The stakes are fairly high tomorrow as an employment report that exceeds expectations will further buttress hopes that the US will be able to avoid a double-dip recession. If the data is better than expectations, look for safe-havens like USD, JPY and CHF to bear the brunt of the price action. Commodities currencies are the likely winners with majors like EUR and GBP next in line.
IF the data is appreciable worse than expected, turn the above forecast upside-down…
Reflation plays like AUD and CAD would suffer and the USD, JPY and CHF would be the likely winners.
September 2, 2010 at 17:04
the “triangle” in all times ………… like this >
September 2, 2010 at 17:05
near 2820
September 2, 2010 at 17:16
That’s the breakout signal right? So, the price is all ready to do just that tomorrow, either direction.
September 2, 2010 at 17:52
tomorrow is friday and is also a NFP before a holiday on Monday in the USA
what this tells us along with the price action today is that the smart money will be back next week and this is an illiquid market that has no volume, no direction and no bias right now.
What we have seen in the past few NFP’s are that it sets in motion the bias for the next few session of trading.
I do not and will not trade NFP, have been in the business too long to gamble my money. I have made fortunes and lost same on this report and learned my lesson long long ago, if you are a true trader then you also will not trade tomorrow, a true trader follows the professional money and they do not trade NFP
it is well over 90% of the retail traders that make up those that do and as we all know 95% of those lose money, what does that tell you??? its a DUH no brainer take the day off moment!!
take a long weekend unless the NEED to trade is too strong and then i will wish you luck.
September 3, 2010 at 05:58
this link may help you http://www.henryliuforex.com/2481/us-nfp-nonfarm-payroll-employment-analysis-trade-plan-091310/
September 3, 2010 at 06:38
i do not need any help, i dont trade fridays nor NFP, its for newbies and gamblers
September 3, 2010 at 11:24
sorry I thought we are here to watch each others back. Ok got your message no probs. ‘m sure it will help someone.
September 3, 2010 at 11:31
hhanks ovyeh nice paper even i m out of the market i ve no problem to read others analysis !!!
September 3, 2010 at 14:03
dont get me wrong, i dont trade NFP so i dont need help with any analysis for it is what I meant
I also get his updates via twitter so know all bout him but just dint trade NFP
sorry for any misunderstanding
September 3, 2010 at 14:05
the analysis i posted hours before nfp was spot on but i still do not trade nfp, it has been a very good start to sept and no need to trade anymore as well as it being nfp
September 2, 2010 at 18:27
has candle pro email gone out?
September 2, 2010 at 20:42
read Mark post for today, if u have already signup you will get the mail.
September 2, 2010 at 21:12
Hi there, just got back home. Tired of reading several documents and talking certain things over and over with my lawyer. Will be going to bed soon.
It wasnt what we had hoped for today, but we have stayed well above 2775 and that says enough to me!
@Ttom, Yes you’re very right by not trading on a Friday and especially not because the NFP our due.(I agree with you)
But…stubborn as I am…:-)
All techs/funds, news, indicators and whatsoever suits me well and points towards the north and I think its alright :-)
Just my view and I like to keep it that way (No need to follow!)
Lets see whats on tomorrow (Will be out by the time NFP is coming out, thats a promise! :-))
Good night all.
September 2, 2010 at 21:22
Good night friend, are u having rehaerasal with your lawyer, planning for cross exermination? Take care and have a great night, i love your spirit, i think bull already have their day yesterday, today is neutral, tomorrow is for the bears. Hahaha
September 2, 2010 at 21:29
Hi there my friend Kayus. Good night to you too, and better you rest real good tonight as for tomorrow it will be a hard day for those Bears trying to stop them Bulls on their way to the top. :-) Take care and see you soon again.
September 3, 2010 at 00:39
be careful and have a look at $index
September 2, 2010 at 21:20
Just to be more specific:
EURUSD: Likely to remain range-bound ahead of tomorrow’s NFP announcement – Support: 1.2775/85 & Resistance: 1.2845/55.
September 3, 2010 at 06:31
yes @johnny but i think as y said eur will travel bween 1.27618 and 1.28711 ;;;but tested 2820 my times (ask it to tested 2840 wth all bulls y hve give them JW)
September 2, 2010 at 22:36
I have the daily candle for today touching the very upper edge of a falling channel. Price seems to be afraid of breaching, as a bearish doji appeared bang on the line I have drawn for the upper edge on the hourly and half hourly charts (at 1.2825). Could signal a bearish day tomorrow/overnight which would prove that the recent bullish mood was fake? I am guessing a significant sustained breach to the upside (1.2825+) will help confirm that a more significant bullish longer term trend is actually developing.
Good night all
September 3, 2010 at 02:28
Anyway to get the super trend indicator posted in the forums under journals?
September 3, 2010 at 06:23
GM all
September 3, 2010 at 06:26
GM Friend, i guess u recoommed we use last chat page as continuation for today . Cheers
September 3, 2010 at 06:26
a lot of “persons” are waiting “good news” for the stataes this after noon…; bce said yday that europeen banks need to be helped again….
September 3, 2010 at 06:37
does that suggest south journey? or north continues?
September 3, 2010 at 06:39
FYI Friday’s signal is out:
http://piphut.com/2010/09/forex-signals-eurusd-hinges-on-nfp/