Daily Outlook: Good morning/evening, PipHutters! I stayed on the sidelines of yesterday’s signal as the pair charged through the resistance zone (1.2750) with so much as blinking on the 30m, 1h or 4h charts. With no confirmation there was no reason to enter short and it is a good thing: the pair eventually got as high as 1.2850! In hindsight I should have given more caution given CandlePro’s buy signal it gave on the daily charts.
Bulls Struggle to Maintain
Outlook is a bit muddied at the moment as it always is when we have strong retracements in the middle of trends. The question is always “is this part of a larger move to the upside or will we see the resumption of the downtrend soon”. The only answer is “the charts will tell us”, and to that end I see 1.2765 as the key daily support level: above this level I will stay bullish and look for longs, below this level and I will look for shorts on the day.
As always CP users can check multiple pairs/timeframes for intraday candlestick signals and you should watch out for news events on the forex calendar.
Trading Idea: Looking for longs above 1.2765 and shorts below. Trend is a bit muddy right now so standing aside is a good option for this pair, but my primary active trade will be a long with confirmation near 1.2765 with long targets at 1.2790, 1.2820, 1.2850 and 1.2880 for 115 pips profit.
*** For those of you on the CandlePro waiting list check your emails later today, there is an important announcement going out :) ***
Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Free Candlestick Alerts
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums
September 2, 2010 at 06:29
morning Mark
September 2, 2010 at 06:29
Morning stranger! Glad to see you back
September 2, 2010 at 06:33
Morning/Evening Gentlemen.
@PIPHUT Mark, I am not very familiar with this particular pattern. But on H4 ? Does it appears to be a Bull Flag one or I am totally wrong ? Thanks and have a good night
September 2, 2010 at 06:42
Hi there @johnny, which pattern are you talking about?
September 2, 2010 at 06:49
@PIPHUT I meant the Bullish Flag Pattern Mark. Looks like one on H4 but I probably be mistaken since I am not to familiar with this one.
September 2, 2010 at 06:52
Oh yes, that definitely looks like a bullish flag pattern
September 2, 2010 at 06:54
Thanks Mark. I wasnt quite sure but I am now :-)
September 2, 2010 at 06:38
Morning GUYS, I have just came back from extreme badly accident :)
September 2, 2010 at 06:40
Hi there my good friend Tuan. Good to see you after such a long time. What happened, not injured I hope?
September 2, 2010 at 06:50
Hi my dear, Johnn. Glad to back here and see you again. I have to stay in hospital for almost 2 month but I’m fine now :)
September 2, 2010 at 06:53
Well, at least good to hear you’re ok now. GL and stay well Tuan.
September 2, 2010 at 08:38
hey tuan and johnny realy nice to you see you both back here :)
September 2, 2010 at 08:43
@tuan so sorry to hear that,but here you are back and making some pips.Thank God for that.take care now
September 2, 2010 at 06:40
Sorry about that BUT OCngratulations for still being around here, “earth”, you could have gone to the great beyond. Welcome and best of luck
September 2, 2010 at 06:51
Thanks Kayus :D
September 2, 2010 at 06:43
Is everyone OK?
September 2, 2010 at 06:50
Still here with you. Thank you Mark :)
September 2, 2010 at 07:45
hllo tuan nice to see y again
September 2, 2010 at 06:38
GM all, @piphut tnx for ur guide as usual. I think the signal for today is SPELT, STAND DOWN.
September 2, 2010 at 06:41
:-) So you mean to say you dont want to make Pips anymore Kayus? :-)
September 2, 2010 at 06:51
No man, just for the moment, i will rather retreat to the trench and allow the armored unit to handle the advance friend, I am bearish bias though but expect bull to have today too, “when not sure, then donts” is one of my watch words.
September 2, 2010 at 06:51
Johnny: Got your bull out??? :))
September 2, 2010 at 06:41
@ttom we missed you later i hope every thing is ok…GM to all.
September 2, 2010 at 06:45
missed your ramblings tom
September 2, 2010 at 06:53
@ttom it is better to have u rambling than here you silence! welcome back, the forum have missed you guys over the past weeks, thank God live is returning to the family now.
September 2, 2010 at 06:57
Market trying to bust out today after several falsie attempts
September 2, 2010 at 06:57
When London session open we may understand the actual direction but already the chart is telling us we have a support level for a bull market. we shall know today resistance level later in the day. GL to all, i am off for now and will be back in 3 hours or thereabout.
September 2, 2010 at 06:57
* On Friday, Bernanke opines in boring tones, market spikes and bulls celebrate
* Monday comes, market fades, bears line up their shorts
* Funky month-end close-out spike yesterday, bears cry foul!
* Positive ISM report today, market has best runup in a while, bulls gloat, bears run for cover
September 2, 2010 at 12:08
that is a great commentary on the market over the past days you gave. GREAT analysis.
September 2, 2010 at 07:00
@tr41nwr3ck
Dont worry my friend (Your name is to complicated to repeat :-)) My Bully is ready to go and so is the Cavalry!
I am close to Marks today’s signal.
If we would dive well beloww 2750 I may start frowning my eyebrows :-)
If we see a sustained break down of 2700/2690 only then I’ll turn Bearish too :-)
September 2, 2010 at 07:02
SPAIN AUG NET UNEMPLOYMENT M/M: +61.1K V +50.0
September 2, 2010 at 07:03
@piphut. Thanks,Mark, for the signal and the constant improvments
September 2, 2010 at 14:37
:)
September 2, 2010 at 07:07
gm all !!
September 2, 2010 at 07:09
Hi Sahara. Finished counting sheeps..ah…Camels I mean :-) Good luck to you today.
September 2, 2010 at 07:44
nice johnny my first short this day was nice from 2820!!(JW for camels in the week it s just for today !!!)
September 2, 2010 at 07:17
If swissy and the fibre perform in their standards pattern today, the bull may take over in u/c while the bear will rule in th e/u, just a thought, lets c how it plays out.
September 2, 2010 at 08:25
is like bull is gain now in eu now
September 2, 2010 at 11:45
Hi All, I expect Bull to have tear down the roof but it appears the continuation flag pattern continues to form BUT the Bear can cause it to fail. No real action yet.
September 2, 2010 at 07:24
“”"Although the single currency retreated after yesterday’s rally to 1.2856, pullback should be limited to 1.2776-82 (current level of the Kijun-Sen, previous resistance as well as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2661 to 1.2856) and previous minor resistance at 1.2744 should hold, bring another upmove. Above said resistance would extend rise from temporary low of 1.2588 for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.2903 and possibly 1.2923, however, break of latter level is needed to retain upside bias for retracement of recent decline to 1.2990/00 later.”"”
September 2, 2010 at 07:38
2778 LOLOL
September 2, 2010 at 07:39
Well I am right there with you to Mark.. I love when that happens:)
September 2, 2010 at 14:39
Strength in numbers :)
September 2, 2010 at 07:44
From Deutsche –
The market surged higher on Wednesday, hitting 1.2856 ahead of the latest stalling. Daily momentum is just turned positive, highlighting the overall shift in risk to the upside. The expectations in coming sessions is for 1.2933 (August 12 high), above which will accelerate much higher up. We are looking to buy dips at 1.2745.
September 2, 2010 at 07:46
Last weeks High is a butt to get through..
September 2, 2010 at 07:54
MacGyver himself could not have threaded that needle any better: touched 2776 just like the note said.
September 2, 2010 at 08:05
What I mentioned earlier this morning (See posting) and
what Mark confirmed…. I like what I see developing on H4 ! (A Bullish Flag Pattern)
A Flag (Bullish) is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue.
Lets see and GL :-)
September 2, 2010 at 08:11
Get your Bully ready!
September 2, 2010 at 08:11
Im feeling cautiously bullish EUR/USD. MAs suggest longer term bearish trend could be about to reverse with medium and shorter term already bullish. MACD could be about to do a bullish cross over as well. Would be good to see if CandlePro kicks out any strong bullish signals on the daily charts. I am toally with Mark though, this could just be some choppy water giving false signals and taking out stops as it goes. I personally will wait for a trend to reassert properly, As Mark said there was definately some short squeezing going yesterday pushing the price up, but as I said, the MAs also suggest a bullish trend could be about to start.
September 2, 2010 at 08:23
See Johnny’s note on the H4 bullish flag; I had to adjust my cotton-picking chart properly to see it ;) BUT, it’s definitely there. EUR was remarkably resilient in face of more negativity today and Moody’s Irish downgrade-a-la-jour.
September 2, 2010 at 08:34
Yes, definately a bullish mood developing. But, as Mark wisely says the charts will tell us, not our hopes. I will wait for MA confirmation before accepting this is the start of a new trend rather than just a stop sucker.
September 2, 2010 at 08:14
yes johnny we will see more then 29 i think
September 2, 2010 at 08:20
I am sure about that Sahara. If this keeps Bullish then 1,30 comes in sight. Lets wait the news today and if thats positive this baby will rocket and fireworks all over :-)
September 2, 2010 at 08:30
three long from 2780 tp near 29 (first FL is 100 pips IN 4H then 100 +100) (1.2725 12825 12925 …)
September 2, 2010 at 08:44
You’re an animal! Great trades!!! Nice how you dropped an excellent short then threaded the needle @ 2780.
September 2, 2010 at 08:19
Eurozone GDP in abt half an hour!
September 2, 2010 at 08:24
Oh Goodie :)
September 2, 2010 at 08:56
Hi Johnny! Nice to see you back here. Even brought your avatar with you. Everything alright in the Johnny house?
September 2, 2010 at 09:06
Thanks for asking Simon. Lets put it this way, it wasnt a holiday thats for sure :-) Glad Im out of that place, it stinked :-) Now trying to stay out and solving. Good luck to you.
September 2, 2010 at 09:16
Good luck to you too, and stay safe.
September 2, 2010 at 09:03
Euro-zone GDP comes in as expected QoQ +1.0%, and slightly better YoY at +1.9%
September 2, 2010 at 09:05
Hi johnny where did you go? after very long seeing here??
September 2, 2010 at 09:11
Hi there Raja. Sometimes one comes sometimes one goes :-)
September 2, 2010 at 09:06
Not much movement so-far
September 2, 2010 at 09:10
In less about 2,5 hours from now we’ve the ECB rate decision. I think the Tie Guys are just waiting for that as well. Give the Ole German Lady (Fat Bertha) some more time, onces she starts rolling aint nobody gonna stop her :-)
September 2, 2010 at 09:12
Note that Trichet spews a bit later…
Then Benny follows with more spewage :)
September 2, 2010 at 09:12
*Eurozone July PPI Up 4% On Year Vs. 3% In June
September 2, 2010 at 09:18
i hve been north ;south i put in my gps : take me to belland the answer was ha ha y are not invited!!!
September 2, 2010 at 09:34
Sure you are welcome. I’ll have a word with the prime minister :-)
September 2, 2010 at 09:40
i never “discuss” with minister ;all the btw presidents or kings sir
September 2, 2010 at 09:56
any idea on EURJPY?
September 2, 2010 at 10:00
i never trad this pair bcse a lot mvts!!! but with fib it s not bad to trad it (better RS near FIB)
September 2, 2010 at 09:18
Until further confirmations , I will be playing shorts.
Took some profit on yesterdays shorts 1.2850 and 1.28 this morning
shorting tagets 1.2855 and 1.29 if reached tp at 1.2830 and 1.28
Friday, if ECB is not bearish we could see and attempt to break 1.29 / 1.2930
So Friday could be a day to stand out and watch.
September 2, 2010 at 09:22
@ johnny, nice to see you back. i thought you ve already subscribe wit cp, leaving us behind. hope we all will make it to cp, depends wen mark decides. gud to see u.
September 2, 2010 at 09:28
You too my friend. Take care….O, and…Fasten your seatbelt…We’re about ready to take off :-)
September 2, 2010 at 09:38
why this “bridg” in 2940 go johnny!!!
September 2, 2010 at 09:41
2840
September 2, 2010 at 09:41
The euro declined against the yen on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will maintain emergency measures to prevent the region from slipping back into a recession as the global economy slows.
September 2, 2010 at 09:36
@johnny sorry my namesake…i hope that u r well now…, this a new month full os successful promises, may it come to u….welcome once more…so which direction do u think that the EU is taking..?
September 2, 2010 at 09:40
Coffee break. Catch you later…And, keep pushing Guys :-)
September 2, 2010 at 09:48
EURUSD testing the highs in the 1.2830′s. Yesterdays high of 1.2853 should provide some resistance for the pair if we jump up another 20 pips or so.
September 2, 2010 at 11:52
which direction is good to follow now?
September 2, 2010 at 10:33
thanks everyone for your great comments, for what it is worth I expect yen and Swiss strength to continue, dollar weakness is driving the EU/US higher so I suggest a close watch on the dollar index to give some insight into just when this rally will stall and the bears get back to their picnic!!
September 2, 2010 at 10:40
@dedo76 nice comment on that cp…but when actually do u think it will be opened again….
September 2, 2010 at 10:58
candle pro email already go out?
September 2, 2010 at 11:08
For RATE (1% for euro) no change i think ! but trichet wll speack!!!
September 2, 2010 at 11:32
SL behind the low of the day(+ few pips)
September 2, 2010 at 11:32
The ECB will announce interest rates in abt 15 minutes. Expectations are for the bank to hold steady at 1.00%
September 2, 2010 at 11:46
The ECB keeps rates steady at 1.00% as expected
September 2, 2010 at 11:47
@bobby, mark said that he will notify us today by email about the cp. let keep waiting wit patient.
September 2, 2010 at 11:48
nice to have a new long near 28!!
September 2, 2010 at 11:52
Only just one Long my friend :-)
September 2, 2010 at 12:50
a few and tp 2840
September 2, 2010 at 11:48
ECB President Trichet’s press conference in less then an hour is likely to see more of a reaction. Will be looking for ECB President Trichet to address the bank’s decision on lending facilities as well as provide an updated economic forecast.
September 2, 2010 at 11:49
i think eu will go till 1.34 before falling towards 1.15 or lower. my view only. in a different angle
September 2, 2010 at 11:52
we are behind where euro go we are following :euro is nice bcse the way is show !!
September 2, 2010 at 12:03
what is informed your expectations?
September 2, 2010 at 12:05
sorry i mean, what informed your decision (deleter IS) cheers
September 2, 2010 at 12:05
the way of the north are opened i think my friend! my idea
September 2, 2010 at 12:44
i didnt doubt the 1.34 but the 1.15!! till then, no comment.
September 2, 2010 at 12:01
Yea I am back, what is going on so far, is this a wrestling or what, i prefer kick boxing, The bull should win KICKING competing but the bear can play fowl with their ferocious teeth. I am good on my usd/chf short from 1.015 and lock my yesterday e/u short at 1.277 with a contra long and let the battle continue. I dont expect bull to go beyond 1.29 then retreat to 1.27 region.
September 2, 2010 at 12:06
falling wedge emerging on usd/chf, projection direction: SOUTH.
September 2, 2010 at 12:46
thanks bulls!!