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Daily Outlook: No trading idea today as it is Friday and the NFP is due out. Big money stayed out of the markets yesterday in anticipation of the NFP today and left us with some pretty boring price action.
NFP Report Driving Price
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are the most closely watched indicator of US employment situation, as it is the most comprehensive gauge of job creation (excluding the farming sector). Last month there was a -131k drop in the NFP and analysts expect -105k this month. Fundamentals 101 would tell us that a report better than -105k indicates an improving US economy, which would strengthen the USD in anticipation of future rate hikes. Recently however the themes of risk have been a much better gauge of how the markets will receive news. In these risk averse times we generally see the opposite happen of what you’d think for basic fundamentals: bad US news drives the USD up as traders seek the relative safety of the US dollar compared to what they judge to be riskier economies (and being the reserve currency doesn’t hurt either). Tagging along with NFP report is the unemployment rate which is expected to increased slightly this month.
Does that mean for sure that the E$ will go up if the NFP is good? Of course not. For all we know big money priced in an NFP drop earlier two weeks ago :).
Have a safe Friday and a good early weekend (or good luck trading to those who feel the need). Happy pipping!
P.S. CandlePro email went out a few hours. If you haven’t already read it there is a CandlePro enrollment session this Sunday at 2p GMT. Read all about it here.
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September 3, 2010 at 06:34
Looks like I am first here today so good morning piphut and wishing you all success today.
September 3, 2010 at 06:37
Morning @greggybaby
September 3, 2010 at 06:48
I think saharaa came in first or rather posted first, he used yesterday post page as continuation pending when Mark opened todays post page.
GM Friend
September 3, 2010 at 06:36
Good morning MARK is it still with paypall or hve find another way for piphutters (without paypall)
September 3, 2010 at 06:37
Still paypal. I just sent an email to Kayus explaining that the software that powers the memberships features of PipHut only can work with PayPal at the moment. If I could switch I would but I am at their mercy for now.
September 3, 2010 at 06:41
Wao! Good Mornig MArk, painfull as the news is to us that cant access paypal BUT life must go on. Weldone and have a great day.
September 3, 2010 at 06:45
on a second thought, cant u give us the option of wire transfer, RESERVE aspot for us and when the payment is credited you then crate an access password for us. Some services provider that i use there in US that doesnt accpt card from Nigeria at least accept wire transfer. That way we may be paying for a quarter or there about rather than the monthly drop.
September 3, 2010 at 06:43
Morning/Evening to all.
Most European Stocks Seem up before Payrolls Report, lets see what this new day brings us. GL
September 3, 2010 at 06:45
Morning @johnny, it is good to see you around here again :)
September 3, 2010 at 06:53
My not showing in here for a while had a reason Mark. But I’ll try to visit Piphut from now on again as much as possible. Although there will be days that I ‘busy’ with other matters :-)
To bad you did not bring out a Trade Idea for today (I know its Friday and NFP etc. but…). Can’t you just give your view to us (Those Stubborn Ones!) in here today?
Thanks and have good night ahead and a relaxed long weekend.
September 3, 2010 at 06:46
GM Johnny, are u active today? and which party are joining; The BUlls or the Bears?
September 3, 2010 at 07:06
Hi there Kayus, hope you’re fine.
I am even more Bullish then yesterday. We have been hoovering above/around 2800 in Asian session and that again tells me enough. (All points but one way, which is North :-))
There’s some Euronews that comes out before this afternoons NFP and Unemployment. Lets see what that will do?
There may be a possibility of a very small pullback (Not necessarily tho!!!) under 2780, and if so from there it goes up again.
But in case this baby could breach its recently made Highs and sustainly break trough 2850 the, believe me, the Goose is really Loose!!!
I wont be surrised at all seeing 2900 and above soon, even today or next week.
E/U Long term Bearish, Short term Bullish. But Medium term (What is still Bearish now) could eventually soon change into Medium term Bullish too! If we reach 2900 and above.
But, I’ll be def. out of trading during the NFP News this afteroon. Thats for sure :-)
Good luck to you.
September 3, 2010 at 07:14
Well said Friend, the chart has the final answer it is only painfull that chart only tell us WHAT has happened for sure not what shall happen for sure.
September 3, 2010 at 09:59
Here’s to the Bulls eating bears for breakfast ;)
September 3, 2010 at 06:48
usd cad i think it will be nice to trad it today!!!
September 3, 2010 at 06:51
what is the setup?
September 3, 2010 at 06:53
it was rejected twice near 1.05 (fib retra) the first and second of september
September 3, 2010 at 06:58
rsi is near neutral
September 3, 2010 at 12:46
a m long usd cad
September 3, 2010 at 06:51
Thank you for your insights Mark.
September 3, 2010 at 06:52
You’re welcome Neil, and good work with your CandlePro journal:
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=238
September 3, 2010 at 07:17
Thank you Mark.
September 3, 2010 at 07:01
Here’s a portfolio that would spell doom for the USD if unwound too quickly:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE68202T20100903
September 3, 2010 at 07:20
TNK U FOR THE HINT Mark, will that have effect on the buck over the board?
September 3, 2010 at 13:11
Definitely, the timeframe is the only question. The Chinese talk about strengthening the yuan, and they can’t devalue the dollar to rapidly or that will kill their own investments.
September 3, 2010 at 07:08
Like that china hve all the “keys” they can play with all of $ they hve but heard that bank central big boss is outside china bcse of loosing a few billion(40 or 43) dollar with Fmac and otherbanks;where is the “captinan”
September 3, 2010 at 07:15
RUSSIA’S C.BANK WILL BE READY TO INVEST IN CANADIAN DOLLARS IN SEVERAL WEEKS TIME-A newspaper reports
September 3, 2010 at 07:20
not bad for their gold then there a paper (W post i think) expecting gold near 1500 $ next year!!!
September 3, 2010 at 07:26
@johnny, the bears are still on the field, will their rule gain momentum or willthe bull kick them off? Just watching friend
September 3, 2010 at 07:30
EU Draghi is talking funny now.
In about half an hour we have some Euronews coming out, lets see :-)
September 3, 2010 at 07:47
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-weakens-ahead-of-us-jobs-data-2010-09-03
September 3, 2010 at 07:51
Bear are pushing, Bulls are resisting. Breakout to any direction imminent but when it happens it will be massive i guess. technical trading would av placed both orders at expected breakout but the fundamentalist will ruin any show so, I am standing down
September 3, 2010 at 08:04
first important short term resistance is 1.2835 so local banks is selling from that points… if can break that resistance we can see 1.2865. I think market is bullish short term idea ı bought @ 1.2807 and ı put an order @ 1.2835 shrt term band…1.2805 – 1.2835 could play..
September 3, 2010 at 08:04
*Eurozone August Composite PMI Falls To 56.2 From 56.7 In July, Consensus 56.1 – Markit
September 3, 2010 at 08:07
we hve the same news???
September 3, 2010 at 08:09
55.90 !!
September 3, 2010 at 08:12
(RTTNews) – Eurozone service sector activity rose to a three-month high in August, led by strong growth in Germany and France, new survey data showed on Friday.
Markit Economics said the services purchasing managers’ index rose to a seasonally adjusted 55.9 from 55.8 in July, and also higher than the preliminary reading of 55.6.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion while one below suggests contraction. Economists had forecast the preliminary score to be confirmed.
New work received by eurozone service providers rose solidly in August, at a rate that was the fastest in four months. Stronger activity translated to higher employment in the service sector, with the rate of job creation quickening to the fastest since April 2008.
Service sector growth continued to be driven by the big two of Germany and France, while Italy and the Republic of Ireland also contributed. Services activity fell slightly in Spain.
Meanwhile, the composite PMI, which is a weighted average of the manufacturing and services PMIs, came in at 56.2 in August, down from 56.7 in July, but up from the preliminary estimate of 56.1.
September 3, 2010 at 08:23
Here’s the plan: If we get a significantly lower release on the NFP (-170K or worse) and Unemployment Rate (9.6% or worse), I’d be looking to BUY JPY (SELL USDJPY, SELL AUDJPY) on a retracement. There might be a chance to go LONG on GBP/USD or EUR/USD as “delayed trades” because the immediate reaction to another disappointing NFP release would prompt traders to SELL USD against JPY. But after the initial spike focused on strong JPY is over, traders will turn towards LONG on EUR and GBP while selling USD.
On the other hand, if we get a positive NFP release (-30K or better) and the Unemployment Rate remains at 9.6% or better, JPY should weaken immediately as USD/JPY may recover and move above 87 throughout the trading session, and the long-term trend would eventually head back on to 90 in the next few weeks…
September 3, 2010 at 08:26
rumours are in the second part of y comment!!!!
September 3, 2010 at 08:38
combined manu ans non-manuf pmi back to 105.6, lowest since Sep re-aligning with GDP figs,and propelling GBP/CHF thru 1.55 barring a miracle.
September 3, 2010 at 08:50
first pips of the day!!
September 3, 2010 at 09:10
out of pips today brethren. the non farm payroll wasn’t volatile. can’t even risk trading anyother currency pair today. but if you wish brethren GBP/CHF is bullish. GBP/USD is also following thesame bullish trend.may remain bullish for the rest of the day. as CHF/USD are weak. would rather advise you stay out of trade as market is in a gobbledygook.
September 3, 2010 at 09:38
Good morning fellow piphutters…It’s the day of the mighty non farm payroll and i won’t miss the action for anything….PROUDLY NIGERIAN
September 3, 2010 at 09:53
Which is the best parameters to use in indicators like stochastic?
September 3, 2010 at 10:00
me i use cci and rsi
September 3, 2010 at 10:10
@johnny wiil y sign CP
September 3, 2010 at 10:20
@SAHARA, I dont even know what’s it all about ? :-) Still have to study this CP stuff, no time yet. But I see you need to pay for it? And I dont much like paying, I like more collecting :-)
I’ll be out for a little while, catch you later my friend.
September 3, 2010 at 10:31
it s very” helping” thing this cp y have all candles from 15 till daily (back more then 10) second it show y the power and direction and the % of it (up or down) and where y can put y SL and TP….. how i think it s very nice work with one eye y can see what y hve to do if y hve y trading plan… y hve to see it to understand the power of CP
September 3, 2010 at 10:28
Shall I book a room for you too at Hotel 1,30 next week Shahara? :-)
September 3, 2010 at 10:30
Eur/usd broke 1.2850…1.2880 is the next key resistance, lets see :-)
September 3, 2010 at 10:33
dt forget camels they need a field!!! with” pleasure” my friend!!!!
September 3, 2010 at 11:33
HI …100 of fibo must be put on start spot and 0 must be put on end spot.if the wave no;2 rebund on 23 till 68 fibo ,the wave no;3 will go up till 162 fibo (in up trend) or will go down till 162 fibo (in down trend).if the wave 2 rebund on 79 fibo,it wiil go till 127 fibo.if it rebund on 100 fibo,it will go till o fibo. you must consider that break of trend line must occured accurately…please exam this in demo and response me by e.mail ….this method use and gurantee by proffisional traders in the world….thanks ..hooman majidi
September 3, 2010 at 11:37
near 2850 it will make plooooof North or south(both!)the end of >(triangle)
September 3, 2010 at 11:55
p.s use bill williams strategy 3/5 minute near NFP news.you can use buy stop and sell stop near nfp news.in eur/usd by 30 pip up and low /put your pending and profit 60/80 pip higher or lower.and in other pairs you put your pending order by 50/60 pip upper and lower.and TP just like euro/usd….be success …hooman be carefull that SL donot required …
September 3, 2010 at 12:14
first is SL how much y can loose!!!
September 3, 2010 at 12:21
There are a lot of animals in here but Forex too me is still not a kind of circus :-) I am out of any trade for a little while, when the smoke is gone I’ll be back. Will be watching the show tho :-)
Another less then 10 minutes if I am correct ?
September 3, 2010 at 13:52
I just miss a bonus 30 pips. i set a buy limit order at 1.2861 tp at 1.2871. when i want to leave for a while,i came in now and found out that i already deleted the order, when? i dont know. what a miss!!!
September 3, 2010 at 12:24
IMF Offers $450 Mln Emergency Aid To Pakistan
To bad Zubair aint here, wonder how he’s doing there?
September 3, 2010 at 12:26
yes but i think about ramadan i hope!!!
September 3, 2010 at 12:27
When is end of Ramadan again?
September 3, 2010 at 12:42
five or six days!!
September 3, 2010 at 12:26
@SAHARA I’ll invite you for a cup ofTea at Station 1,29
Lets say in about an hour from now, are you joining me :-)
September 3, 2010 at 12:42
tp nice but south later
September 3, 2010 at 12:28
(RTTNews) – Looking ahead, the U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to release its monthly non-farm payroll report at 8:30 am ET. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy lost 118,000 jobs in August and expect the unemployment rate to edge up to 9.6%. Ahead of the release, the greenback traded steady against major opponents in early New York trading on Friday.
At present, the greenback is trading near 1.2834 against the euro, 1.5008 versus the British pound, 84.46 against the yen and 1.0466 versus the Swiss franc.
The ISM is scheduled to release the results of its non-manufacturing survey at 10 am ET. The non-manufacturing index is likely to show a reading of 53.2 for August.
September 3, 2010 at 12:33
*Non-Farm Payroll Employment Falls 54,000 In August
September 3, 2010 at 12:34
*Unemployment Rate At 9.6% In August
September 3, 2010 at 12:36
Nice to see you johnny, how are you? I hope everything is fine.
September 3, 2010 at 12:48
Nice to see you too Mubeen. Everything is ok for the time being :-) Take care and GL
September 3, 2010 at 12:37
NFP is green enough.
September 3, 2010 at 12:38
got kicked out of the euro, but riding the Canadian train,hows everyone doing?
September 3, 2010 at 12:42
NFP positive for the USD???
So are everyone shorting ???
Please help me?
September 3, 2010 at 12:46
UBS G10 FX Strategy:
If private payrolls surprise to the upside, CAD could be the $-Bloc currency that is most positively affected and JPY and CHF would weaken as markets become less risk averse. Conversely, a negative surprise would benefit JPY and
CHF vs. USD
September 3, 2010 at 12:50
Thank you!
Still not understanding 100%??
So is this good for the usd?
Will you short eur/usd and gbp/usd??
Thank you
September 3, 2010 at 12:43
usdcad moving south, while the usdjpy moving north..go figure!!
September 3, 2010 at 12:43
Need some pull back here.
September 3, 2010 at 12:44
Can someone explain to me the NFP? must we now short the eur/usd and gbp/usd??
September 3, 2010 at 12:50
DOn’t do anything yet. FOr NFP look for a small consolidation candle on GBP15 first. After it breaks high ir low, then enter.
You usually wait for 15 to 45 mins after NFP to decide.
However, there have been months where the price just goes the other way withint he same day. So, trade at your risk. I’d say 30 pips SL on GBP as a guide.
September 3, 2010 at 12:55
Thank you very much!
Will keep a very close eye on eur and gbp
Please let me know if you jump in
:)
September 3, 2010 at 13:50
I’m not jumping in yet. Just wait 10 more minutes. Observe that there are also a few 15M baby candles. Whichever 15 candle breaks, than you’ll know the short term rally.
September 3, 2010 at 13:51
I’m talking about GBPUSD.
September 3, 2010 at 12:49
(RTTNews) – Following the release of the U.S. unemployment and non-farm payroll reports, the US dollar plunged sharply against major opponents in early New York trading on Friday. Employment in the month of August fell by much less than economists had been expecting, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday, with the report also showing a much smaller than previously reported drop in employment in July.
The report showed that non-farm payroll employment fell by 54,000 jobs in August, matching the revised decrease in jobs seen in July. Economists had expected employment to fall by about 120,000 jobs compared to the loss of 131,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
While employment fell by less than expected, the unemployment rate still edged up to 9.6 percent in August from 9.5 percent in July. The modest increase came in line with economist estimates.
At present, the greenback is trading near new multi-week lows of 1.2875 against the euro, 1.0443 versus the Canadian dollar, 0.9162 versus the Aussei and 0.7216 versus the kiwi.
September 3, 2010 at 12:50
@mike i saw your message thanks u too…how r doing…hope u follow the wave on GBP/JPY and make up to 100…pip
September 3, 2010 at 12:55
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-sheds-54000-nonfarm-jobs-in-aug-2010-09-03?dist=beforebell
September 3, 2010 at 12:56
2780 is good support ,above this level we can see some bulls.
September 3, 2010 at 13:00
Now the hour of truth is nearing :-)
September 3, 2010 at 13:02
You are going to push it easily to 29??
September 3, 2010 at 13:04
And above…
September 3, 2010 at 13:05
But maybe not today :-) Looking forward to next week tho.
September 3, 2010 at 13:07
Thank you Dost!!
September 3, 2010 at 13:06
wow!!!great!
September 3, 2010 at 13:03
What is the best parameters to use in stochastic. Thanks
September 3, 2010 at 13:13
http://piphut.com/2010/05/slow-stochastics/
September 3, 2010 at 13:16
Morning Mark. Fully awaken? Had breakfast yet?
September 3, 2010 at 13:23
I haven’t been “fully awaken” in years ;)
September 3, 2010 at 13:08
Gees its an indecisive market, I doubt we shall be able to break 1.2925 today.
But I believe it will reach at leasty the 1.29 area.
I will not be long as yet, I am putting a sell order at 1.29 tp 1.2850 on the rebound
Made some decent gains by short 1.2850 earlier on.
September 3, 2010 at 13:09
yes!!!
September 3, 2010 at 13:10
Very wise decision.
September 3, 2010 at 13:12
Come on , break it…
September 3, 2010 at 13:13
German Stocks Surge On U.S. Jobs Data
September 3, 2010 at 13:14
wow it have come and gone…what is the speculation again…?
September 3, 2010 at 13:16
<<< i will not trade but look for rallies in GU EU AU… cad might drop to support first and the yens, well they too should get weaker — ttom, Yesterday 22:01[02:48] ttom:
<<< Look to short eurusd @ 1.2880/1.2900 area onconfirmation. Targets: 1.2845, 1.2775— ttom, Today 02:48
ISM still to come
The important part of the release was the the private sector figure. Here, a gain of 67,00 was published, also significantly better than 40,000 that was predicted. And there was more good news:
A revision of July’s figure showed that Non-Farm Payrolls fell by only 54K instead of 131K initially reported. Also the private sector’s number was revised in July from 71K to 107K. All the numbers are significantly better than expected.
September 3, 2010 at 13:27
Agree, market is waiting for final news. One more news guys, than we’ll see the train.