Daily Outlook: Happy September everyone! EUR/USD took the “alternate path” from yesterday’s signal, failing to close below 1.2630 and forming a triangle consolidation wedge on the charts (see chart below). The higher probability outcome of a consolidation pattern at this point is to the downside given the strong 800 pip drop we saw in August.
I took a few short term shorts off the resistance line yesterday, nothing major but enough to keep me interested. I’ll be more cautious today as the tail end of the consolidation pattern is always the most volatile. Today I am bullish above 1.2750 and bearish below 2750 (e.g. looking for shorting opps).
As always CP users can check multiple pairs/timeframes for intraday candlestick signals and you should watch out for news events on the forex calendar.
Trading Idea: Looking for shorting opportunities on confirmation below 2750.
Primary trade will be a short from 1.2730 with candlestick confirmation, short targets at 1.2705, 1.2675, 1.2645 and 1.2615 for 115 pips profit.
Aggressive short would be on a sustained break of 1.2630 to the downside and an aggressive long is a sustained break above 2750 (though be weary of a false breakout short squeeze here).
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September 1, 2010 at 16:56
@johnny how did tday go at ur end, hope your bully raekd in pips into your wallet. are still bullish optimistic or considering shorting now?
September 1, 2010 at 17:09
Hi there Kayus. I was running here and there today with all kind of docuemnts, but still managed to get some pips on today’s train north. (via my pocketpc).
Personally I remain short term bullish (As I was yesterday), we may see a small pullback but 2775/80 support will probably bring another upmove.(If not already going up before!)
As I mentioned earlier, 1,29 soon will be insight.
Take care my friend
September 1, 2010 at 17:11
the dollar is going up (let s see in 20 mn where it will closed dollar index 82.489 now
September 1, 2010 at 17:14
Hi there Sahara, nice to see you. I just came home and gonna make me some food first. But will be watching in here in between. GL
September 1, 2010 at 17:20
eat well my friend !!!hve a gd aptate
September 1, 2010 at 17:36
candles (bof bof ) notthing !!! even it s bullish !!if goes up 82.7 82.8 why not
September 1, 2010 at 17:12
30 mn candle and two 15 mn
September 1, 2010 at 17:14
hllo @johnny i was nt in the market today!!!
September 1, 2010 at 17:38
wao! a great north flight we had today but some of us are still rooting for the bear notwithstanding.
September 1, 2010 at 17:48
Yeah..and because of that mixed mentality… I’m still not sure where it’s heading. I don’t want to be caught in stop-hunts from tomorrow’s news…so I will wait until all the news for this week is over.
September 1, 2010 at 17:49
i have not take it !!!no problem i was out all the day but there s a question for me if i trad with “news” all are nice for $ then we buy dollar and sell mb euro and G !!!!! i think like that the trend is still going down but as we hve seen today (yday i said with johnny we can see 2880 or in the other side) yesterday i was short nothing show m in the end of afternoon (yday 31.08) to go long…..we hve change today (even Mark signal in the same analysis) …..the trend is bearish i m waiting the nice opportinuty to catch it
September 1, 2010 at 17:59
and plse hve an eye on daily candle for $ index(for me close in 4h and 30 mn!!! net dania station)
September 1, 2010 at 17:28
@johnny the comments of yday was nice hve been long with this up from 27!!!!
September 1, 2010 at 17:34
Im happy for you my friend. Remember I told you yesterday that we would go up today :-)
September 1, 2010 at 17:47
so what do u forecast for tmr and why?
September 1, 2010 at 17:55
I forecast a large spike in both ways because nobody knows the outcome of EUR and US news.
Next week after labor day, we will resume a good trend, after considering this weeks news.
My bias is that US economy is showing sings of slowing this quarter. And that is normal. So, just have to patient on whatever happens.
EUR is awfully quiet nowadays. EUR debt problem focus will give us the nice bearish trends. Like I said before, when the investors focus on US economy, EURUSD doesn’t really play well.
September 1, 2010 at 18:01
no sorry johnny it was have y been long?
September 1, 2010 at 17:33
thanks alot for your ok signals.today we have a butterfly pattern on eur/usd h1 time frame.and i forcast that chart will return and will have a bearish movement from 1.2850.and there is a resistance of 38% fibo ratracement (from 1.3300 /1.2588 in h4) .this show us that chart will have downtrend nowadays.this is my opinion.best regards …..hooman majidi
September 1, 2010 at 17:38
@JOHNR – FYI
Ford Motor August Sales Down 10.7%
September 1, 2010 at 17:46
Yeah..was just looking at Yahoo news on that.
Nothing has shaken the Forex market yet. We might as well close up shop for today.
September 1, 2010 at 17:48
NY Big Guys are still having their lunch break. They will be back on the Floor in 1/2 hour or so. Lets see what happens by then :-)
September 1, 2010 at 17:59
(RTTNews) – Stocks continue to post strong gains in mid-afternoon trading on Wednesday after showing a substantial move to the upside earlier in the session. The major averages are hovering firmly in positive territory, as traders react positively to some upbeat manufacturing data.
Considerable strength remains visible in a variety of sectors, with healthcare provider, steel, oil service, and computer hardware stocks posting particularly strong gains. Meanwhile, gold stocks remain among the few groups that are bucking the uptrend.
The major averages have been more or less rangebound in afternoon trading, holding onto strong gains. The Dow is up 248.54 points or 2.5 percent at 10,263.26, the Nasdaq is up 59.58 points or 2.8 percent at 2,173.61 and the S&P 500 is up 29.99 points or 2.9 percent at 1,079.32.
September 1, 2010 at 18:02
IMF: EU-IMF AID MEANS GREECE DOESN’T NEED TO RETURN TO MARKETS
IMF: SOVEREIGN DEFAULT RISK IS `SIGNIFICANTLY OVERESTIMATED’
IMF SAYS AVERAGE MARKET INTEREST RATES `REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW’
September 1, 2010 at 18:07
@KAYUS I just think that it could be nice, shorting from around 1,29 to 1,27 :-) Lets see
September 1, 2010 at 18:17
I won’t trade this…but if I were on a demo account…
Long EURUSD at 1.2795
Exit Long and short EURSD at 1.2880
Exit Short at 1.2750
Wishful thinking. Curious if this would turn out tomorrow. If it does, I will write a future Almanac and sell it.
September 1, 2010 at 18:23
Looks good to me John :-) Nice pips too :-) I wont be surprised at all that this could be the levels for tomorrow. I would say….Start writing, I’ll buy your 1st copy :-)
September 1, 2010 at 18:48
Tnx u friend, lest i forget, how was ur bed yesterday. hope the reunion was fantastic. it is sure good to be home and great making pips at will without distractions. I was on the wrong side of the board when todays action was on and changes my plan to reversing my trade is 1.28 was breached with a H4 candle closing above it. I swoped to plan B, Hold tight and fight like the … (The Scorpion King army)
September 1, 2010 at 18:15
@ALL Mark used to show up around these hours sometimes.
Doesnt he come in here anymore ? Wss always nice to get an update from him at the end of the day.
Well, he maybe to busy with something else :-)
September 1, 2010 at 18:18
CP may be out again soon. I hope I can still try for the $69 deal. I’ve been with piphut for a long time, and missed out because of high demand.
September 1, 2010 at 18:19
I will send Mark a pending order for CP at $69 from Paypal. Hope it bites.
LOL
September 1, 2010 at 18:22
not alone wth johnny plse and others
September 1, 2010 at 19:49
when u get it hope we shall still av u peeping in. i can only join the pro chat and CP when Mark provide paypal altermative payment
September 1, 2010 at 18:55
(RTTNews) – The dollar dropped versus the euro and tested a fresh 15-year low versus the yen on Wednesday as economic data signaled worries of a global double-dip may have been overstated.
Strong manufacturing data from the US and China fueled increased risk appetite, driving stocks higher and the safe haven dollar sharply lower.
Adding to the positive sentiment after a dreary August, the Australian economy grew at its fastest pace in three years in the second quarter.
The dollar slumped to Y83.65 versus the yen before finding its footing. A move below Y83.63 would have taken the buck to its lowest since 1995.
Against the euro, the dollar fell to a two-week low of $1.2845, a full ten cents from June’s 4-year high near $1.18.
The buck dropped more than a penny from its 6-week high versus the sterling, easing to $1.5485.
Manufacturing activity in the month of August unexpectedly expanded at a faster pace, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday, with the data easing some of the recent concerns about the outlook for the manufacturing sector.
The ISM said its index of activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 56.3 in August from 55.5 in July, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the sector. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to fall to a reading of 52.9.
However, a key prelude to Friday’s jobs official jobs report confirmed doubts that the employment situation has improved.
Payroll processor Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) said that private sector employment unexpectedly showed a modest decrease in the month of August.
The report showed that private sector employment fell by 10,000 jobs in August following a downwardly revised increase of 37,000 jobs in July. Economists had expected employment to increase by 13,000 jobs compared to the addition of 42,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
September 1, 2010 at 19:00
The Dollar Index was rejected at the daily ichimoku cloud base today which is around 83.37/38
September 1, 2010 at 19:37
Hi Johnny du u trade fundamental? i dot mind if u give me helpful link on basics of trading fundemental. I once tried google it but the result became a problem. I am thunking of blending my technical stance with the fundamental. Looking forward.
September 1, 2010 at 21:22
PM me and I ‘ll give u all the details you need on fundamental trading
September 1, 2010 at 19:53
c u all tmr
September 1, 2010 at 19:59
See you Kayus and goodnight. (I was away from PC, fixing coffee :-))
Tomorrow we’ll have our eyes on the jobless claims, the factory orders and the pending home sales.
Lets see, take care
September 1, 2010 at 20:45
Tnx, waiting for your response on my request posted above. What is the take for tmr, bull continuation or reversal?
September 1, 2010 at 20:56
Strong opens are expected tomorrow for the New Zealand and Australia stock markets. Not all times but mostly if stocks go up, like today, the Euro goes up as well.
For the moment (that means for tomorrow) I remain bullish. I think we will see today’s highs the least, or above with 2900 insight.
But remember, its just my view
Take care, Im off to bed too :-)
September 2, 2010 at 02:46
Get your bully on!
September 2, 2010 at 05:36
guys where can i get pivot point readings, daily
September 2, 2010 at 06:11
Try these:
http://www.actionforex.com/markets/pivot-points/standard-pivot-points-2010040848154/
Their close time is 21:00 GMT.
September 2, 2010 at 06:23
@fenrir thank you frnd
September 2, 2010 at 07:22
*Deleted by admin*
September 2, 2010 at 14:08
Hi Mark,
Yesterday I wrote sell at 2730 WITH CONFIRMATION. There was no confirmation. No bearish candlesticks, no false breakouts, nothing. If you are not able to spot confirmation then you definitely should not be trading with real money.
As far as me posting when to enter and when not to – PipHut is a free service and I have limited time. Even if I could I wouldn’t do it as the goal of PipHut is to show you how I trade – not trade for you as you seem to want.
Mark
September 2, 2010 at 16:57
THANKS FOR YOUR VERY GOOD ANSWER TO OUR BAD FRIEND MARK OFTEN.BE CAREFULL FOR NFP NEWS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.YOU CAN USE BILL WILLIAMS STRATEGY ONLY 3/5 MINUTE NEAR NEWS.BECAUSE THE BROKER OFF THEIR SERVERS ON NEWS PUBLISHING AND TRADER CAN ONLY USE BUY STOP AND SELL STOP 3/5 MINUTS BEFORE NFP NEWS. IN EUR/USD ONLY 30/35 PIP UP/LOW OF PTICE NEAR NEWS.WITH 60/80 PIP PROFIT.THANKS …HOOMAN
September 2, 2010 at 16:59
Hi Hooman, please don’t use all CAPS. It makes it seem like you are shouting.
September 2, 2010 at 19:52
thanks for ur suggestion.