Daily Outlook: Happy September everyone! EUR/USD took the “alternate path” from yesterday’s signal, failing to close below 1.2630 and forming a triangle consolidation wedge on the charts (see chart below). The higher probability outcome of a consolidation pattern at this point is to the downside given the strong 800 pip drop we saw in August.
I took a few short term shorts off the resistance line yesterday, nothing major but enough to keep me interested. I’ll be more cautious today as the tail end of the consolidation pattern is always the most volatile. Today I am bullish above 1.2750 and bearish below 2750 (e.g. looking for shorting opps).
As always CP users can check multiple pairs/timeframes for intraday candlestick signals and you should watch out for news events on the forex calendar.
Trading Idea: Looking for shorting opportunities on confirmation below 2750.
Primary trade will be a short from 1.2730 with candlestick confirmation, short targets at 1.2705, 1.2675, 1.2645 and 1.2615 for 115 pips profit.
Aggressive short would be on a sustained break of 1.2630 to the downside and an aggressive long is a sustained break above 2750 (though be weary of a false breakout short squeeze here).
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September 1, 2010 at 06:18
Thanx for the signals Mark
September 1, 2010 at 06:22
You’re welcome Neil, have a great day and lets make this the best September ever!
September 1, 2010 at 06:48
Tnx for ur signal and hoping to be having lively room like yesterday with the return of our own very dearest JOHNNY and others. GL to all, Happy new month and have a great pipping day
September 1, 2010 at 06:53
Kayus,
Gud moring to u
September 1, 2010 at 07:00
are you online?
September 1, 2010 at 10:23
Sorry just came back, i poped in at home and then left. Now i am back at least for now. How are u doing?
September 1, 2010 at 06:25
Hi Mark,
@piphut
Thanks for the signal!
God bless.
September 1, 2010 at 06:27
@piphut
Thanks, Mark. The next two days should be very interesting.
September 1, 2010 at 06:28
Thank you Mark, great work as always
September 1, 2010 at 06:30
Good morning piphut. Mark, assume that red line on your daily charts is the daily simple 10 day Moving Average? Is that the only MA you use? It is just that most tend to use a combination. Seems to work fine for you with just one! I assume therefore you are not using it to measure trend and just as an indication of how far price has moved from the 10day SMA? Have a pippy day.
September 1, 2010 at 06:53
Mark, the daily chart you post for the free signal – is that a 4hr?
September 1, 2010 at 08:14
Im not mark but I hope it is ok if I answer – yep it is H4 :)
September 1, 2010 at 10:52
Hi Friend, which party are u joining today, the ruling BULL party or the BEAR party in waiting?
September 1, 2010 at 11:57
tks matey
September 1, 2010 at 08:29
yes it s 4H chart it s better when y are trading in intraday with 30 and 1H charts!!! but have a look for daily to see the trnd direction
September 1, 2010 at 11:56
thanks guys. I don’t have 4hr charts on my system, just daily and then down to 1hr. 4hr seems a nice compromise before zooming into shorter time frames to see whats going on.
@saharaview: I am not able to trade intraday due to commitments, primarily looking at setups on daily candles and as you say these are good for establishing an overall trend (Intraweek?). 4hr chart may be of use as it would time nicely with early morning, lunchtime and after work!
September 1, 2010 at 07:05
Is that a doji on 39m and 1hr chart?
September 1, 2010 at 07:06
I meant 30 m and 1 hr chart?
September 1, 2010 at 08:12
gm ga ge whenever are you people :)happy pips to your pockets
thanx mark
September 1, 2010 at 08:49
Is this the “short squeeeeeze” Mark?
September 1, 2010 at 08:51
freight train to the north :)
September 1, 2010 at 09:30
do you think it is walid the short signal after that rocket ?
September 1, 2010 at 10:25
yes for the scalper but i didnt see the steem hold on for too long. Daily chart still favours south journey except we are experienceing another drastic reversal
September 1, 2010 at 09:34
….Today I am bullish above 1.2750 and bearish below 2750 (e.g. looking for shorting opps).
September 1, 2010 at 10:32
Good strategy Friend, yesterday when we reach 1.24 we didnt know it will b the day high, may b we have already had today high too, I am rally bear bias, the trend will lead, follow
September 1, 2010 at 09:42
I am curious how cppro did on this rally anyone here use it and can tell about todays use of it
September 1, 2010 at 10:22
what just happened look to me as the squeeze MArk warned against. Untill 1.28 is broken i think it is a bull trap.
September 1, 2010 at 10:28
@KAYUS Hello my friend. Could be a ‘bull trap’ but, since we have breach resistance at 2780/85 according to me the EuroBulls are back in power. It sure as something to do with Bulls but I dont believe its a trap :-)
Lets see is it can break 2830/35 ?
Remember what I posted yesterday?
Catch you later and good luck to you.
September 1, 2010 at 10:41
Tnx for the advice, if 1.28 is breached with a close above on H4 then i will reverse my short position at 1.277
September 1, 2010 at 16:20
I also think Mark was on the button once again with the short squeeze warning. All those stop getting taken out must have pushed up E/U and could trap a few on the way down again.
September 1, 2010 at 10:49
M30 and H1 continue to show spike indicating bull steam proberbly reducing or rallying for stronger thrust. is USD weakening? if yes then the bull may capitalize on that else, the bear shall reign once more.
September 1, 2010 at 11:11
wht position ar u now?
September 1, 2010 at 11:31
hey man, i went short at 1.277, i am presently negative but will hold till i am sure i am against the trend. !.28 was my plotted resistance but i placed order for short at 1.277 fearing we may not hit 1.28 BUT we are spiked paast that alrady today. It is safer to go short on USd/CHF for now though i have an hunch that ther may sooon be a straong reversal on that pair. My eralier trade already stoped out with my trailing stop. No loss thoough just that i would have netted alomost 50pips on that trade now but 5 pips is better than loss,. I will not enter another position for now till the coast is clear for me.
September 1, 2010 at 10:54
Bearish doji 15m, not sure 30 m, 1 hour could be heading there
I have shorted 1.28.
Although I think it will exceed this level today.
At this point in time this market deserves a correction.
TP 1.2750 else increase short at 1.2850
September 1, 2010 at 11:09
You are right man, there goes a doji M30, the decision may however be for the bull BUT i am still bear bias. U may use trailing profit if u have a long that is way into profit if u are hopeful of continues climb. GL
September 1, 2010 at 11:10
Hello kayus
how do u manage to trade forex in nigeria im a nigerian but live in Austria i enjoy reading every comments u pple make here hoping to here from u
September 1, 2010 at 11:26
Hello Stella, we trade just like others, all u need to trade is a relaible platform and a PC with internet conncetivity. That is awailbale here too and we are also begining to wake uo to the opportunity that abound in FX trading though lots of us here are learning the “hows” of trading the hard -at the risk of out margin, i ahve had my accounts wiped out more than thrice when i just started BUT i see all those so called loss as TUITION of learning FX, Hahah. We are geting along and you?
September 1, 2010 at 11:46
@ stella hi dia,fx is not made easier in nigeria,especially now that we have broker like Alpari opening offices in Abuja and Lagos with good leverage too.
hp you r cool
September 1, 2010 at 11:48
@stella i mean FX made easy in naija…
September 1, 2010 at 12:01
Hi Freez, pls dont mind my intrusion just bn inquisitive, what informed of your avatar and the 666 in your name? Cheers
September 1, 2010 at 12:18
@kayus i am assuming that key of yours open the way the the pips,lol.
Anyway to answer your question,hmmm…its complicated but maybe i will be able to give you a proper answer someday
cheers man
September 1, 2010 at 16:58
kayus i am assuming that key of yours open the way the the pips,lol. Yes man, one opne the for the BEARS and the other open for the BULL.
September 1, 2010 at 11:42
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Figures out in half an hour. EURUSD to drop?
September 1, 2010 at 11:54
Till then Friend BUT i think so. (Dont trade based on “think” only trade based on what you “see” the chart saying.
September 1, 2010 at 12:23
Yeah and don’t trade on “hunches”…leave that for the blackjack tables.
September 1, 2010 at 12:40
Thanks guys. Nonfarm actual worse than expected and market reacted correctly to it. Sorry, still learning.
September 1, 2010 at 11:50
I think the current bias on 4h chart is highly bullish so i think 1.28000 may not be a good point to enter although 30m chart shows a doji formed.
September 1, 2010 at 11:51
or is 1.2800 a good point to enter short?
September 1, 2010 at 12:04
in my opinion, i think any one looking for opportunity to go short, it is about time. We are presently in a resistance lvel that is proving reliable for today. If we break here further up THEN it is bull day else, the bear should take over the afternoon shift shortly. US session may have a differecnt idea in about an hour though.
September 1, 2010 at 12:23
Quite agree, so far this week the US have been bears.
Also technically there needs to be correction.
however things might change, as we are approaching the US non farm and long week end.
Personally I think there could be upsight , generally the market is increasing in risk appetite , as who knows how the market will diggest the news tonight, 1st news looks as if wanting to reduce risk. watch out 14hr ISM results to definetely triger upmove what ever the results after a correction lower I hope to the region of 1.2750 at least.
September 1, 2010 at 12:38
Hello freez where have u been
u mean alpari have an office right now in abuja that is great but forex is more difficult this days .
September 1, 2010 at 12:42
@stella difficult yes but if u stick with mark and the other piphutters,couple with a lot of patience from your part,then-maybe just then…
its really good to make u n Kayus.there use to be plenty more naijas in here but…
September 1, 2010 at 12:39
Hello @ kayus u ppl are really tring how long have u traded forex
September 1, 2010 at 12:54
@freez666 how long have u traded forex
September 1, 2010 at 13:08
@stella well not as long as i would have wanted.Aleays find myself wondering wehre da hell have i been all this while but i guess better late…Also i guessed the absence of FXbrokers in Nigeria kind of made me skeptic back then.
So,how is Austria?
September 1, 2010 at 14:11
two years on live trade now
September 1, 2010 at 12:55
Hi Mark
I have n’t posted for a while, but now Sep is here, I will prob be mre active. Just wonder if this break up is the start of a more permanant rally. I am seeing a strong chart comparison between recent price action on short-term chart and the mch bigger timeframe chart from 2005/2006. I have highlighted that on my blog http://www.hometraderuk.blogpsot.com —
The pivot will probably be mid 129s.and expect this area to likely offer some resistance .
Regards
Gooner70
September 1, 2010 at 12:55
@freez666 do women also trade it in Naija
September 1, 2010 at 13:12
@stella it use to be a supprise seeing ladies in FX back then but now you will be taken aback on the numerical size- even compare to guys and doing well too.
You just upped the number you knw
September 1, 2010 at 12:55
any cppro people can tell us what you have pls
September 1, 2010 at 13:11
I’m kinda surprised – what happened to “friends” tab? Or was there no such option and I’m confused ;)
September 1, 2010 at 13:16
@johnny
Looks like you need to take your little bully back out!
September 1, 2010 at 13:18
@stell look up and click on the memembers tab-group then niaja in my sihght(i think).there you will get to meet other and more seasoned naija players.
dont mention
September 1, 2010 at 13:31
in FX anything does happen, such was the surge of today. USD?CHF seems to be heading for PARITY, WHEN THAT HITS, WHAT NEXT? Will USD give up on being the superior curency, maybe that is Armageddon PArt 1. Hahaha!
September 1, 2010 at 13:55
Yeah baby. I have a pending long at 1.00 USDCHF. IT won’t break without a fight.
That is mind boggling isn’t it? USD = CHF. No point holding USD cash, you might as well hold CHF cash.
BUt we all know that swissy gov intervenes…and they will. JUst like BOJ for JPY…. strong currency hurts exports.
September 1, 2010 at 13:33
Well good morning all looks like every one came back to work from vacation and decided to buy the Euro. I would like to get in on the down side but do not know where it get in and Idea guys. have a good day all. Mark thanks for the signal.
September 1, 2010 at 14:23
Why would anybody want to park their cash in EUR ? hehahaha
Sorry, you get it if you do.
September 1, 2010 at 13:52
how is all of piphutters!
September 1, 2010 at 15:03
All of extreme pippage on USD/CAD!!! Noticing that E/U is drifting off to sleep…
September 1, 2010 at 15:12
i trad cad two days it ws fantastic today i was nt in the area!!!
September 1, 2010 at 15:15
At least a E/U short @ about 2850 has got a leg down, but I’m afraid of the 2780 pivot I may dump out and cut my losses near there…and lock in the loonie gains.
If the E/U trend is going to change over to bullish, I absolutely hate playing counter-trend trades. Hard to say for now.
September 1, 2010 at 13:58
Hello all, Like Mark posted yesterday that if 1.2630 is not broken, we may be in for a wedge pattern. We have a double bottom on the 1h and 4h charts. plot the double bottom on the 4h chart with a trend line and then the june rising trendline at 1.1876 is expected to turn the pair around. This is more of an expanding wedge pattern. You can also draw a fibonacci from 1.3332 to 1.2587 to support this just in case we get an overlap(that is where a fib level and june rising trend line will meet). This is just my view, i stand corrected. Good luck
September 1, 2010 at 14:07
Great analysis but i rally cant see the double bottom. what timeframe did u use.
September 1, 2010 at 14:01
yes yesterday (see comments last day) with johnny w hve discuss about it me i have next level -38_ near 2880 (FIB RETR)
September 1, 2010 at 14:02
on daily chart
September 1, 2010 at 14:02
Shooting Star EURUSD 30m 2010.09.01 13:00 1.28350 bearish
I tried a short at 1.2750, but failed. Never mind… small SL anyway.
Let’s hope 1.2850 to 1.2900 will limit our upside for today. We cannot spoil the train for Friday.
September 1, 2010 at 14:09
Slurped a quick 20 pips off of a short of 1.2840.
Reasoning: 1.2850 is a 4H resistance, and would be an ideal pitstop for the bulls.
Now…wait and see where it settles after the barrage of news today.
September 1, 2010 at 14:03
I don’t believe it…US stocks are rallying today. That’s strange considering we just cut 10,000 jobs. I think the monkeys are out on Wall Street. I will sell of my stocks tomorrow after a healthy gain today.
September 1, 2010 at 15:05
Oil’s up, and so is USD/CAD. it is very “loonie” (pun fully intended)…
September 1, 2010 at 14:03
news are good for $
September 1, 2010 at 14:05
no trad for me just watching this big “machine”
September 1, 2010 at 14:14
Tough day today. Quite common for the beginning of September, isn’t it?
September 1, 2010 at 14:19
Thanks Mark for your help :)
September 1, 2010 at 14:31
@freez666 thank u for all the information
September 1, 2010 at 14:41
I’m going to try a short for USDCHF at 1.0180. It’s bearish, and the pullback we’re seeing now helps to get there.
I also agree with this analysis:
http://www.actionforex.com/trading-signals/candlesticks-and-ichimoku-intraday/trade-idea-update:-usd%10chf-%E2%80%93-sell-at-1.0180-20100901121407/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ActionForexall+%28Action+Forex+%28ALL%29%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
September 1, 2010 at 15:24
Got 10 pips out from that short from 1.0180. I’m not holding out very long now because of the next few days. It’s like walking in a minefield now.
September 1, 2010 at 15:58
I’ll stay on this and ride it out (with S/L protection of course :) running in the 101.40s now so what the heck…
September 1, 2010 at 15:53
He changed his analysis to “stand aside”, but I still like this short here too… There’s some overnight news risk tonight on CHF, but with some elbow room it’s good enough to plow through and see what happens.
September 1, 2010 at 16:03
Yup. I wished I had held on longer…but nevermind.
One bird in hand is still worth 2 in the bushes.
September 1, 2010 at 16:15
USDCHF getting up to 1.0170s again. Here are my thoughts:
1.0219 is 4H Resistance. This is the most ideal place to short USDCHF or hide your SL behind.
1.0180 as indicated by the Ichi studies is a riskier, but more likely place to short. Hide SL above 1.0219.
EURUSD is finally moving inversely with swissy. So, Long at EURUSD 1.2780 is not a bad idea. But be careful because of news tomorrow. This pair is much more volatile than USDCHF, and I would either stay out, or just scalp a few pips from there.
September 1, 2010 at 16:41
i just placed a long order on 1.01, i believe the bar term is up, the bull must take over as a matter of national pride
September 1, 2010 at 16:43
wow…good for you. I was waiting for parity to be safe.
September 1, 2010 at 14:48
I what you mean about buying the EURO but some thing is driving it up. LOL But I need to get out of some positions that I am in so this will help. Thanks for the comment and thanks to all of you guys and gals for being on this form I learn a lot. Have a good week every one.
September 1, 2010 at 15:12
hmm…how about a long at 1.2780 ?
September 1, 2010 at 15:15
why !! no candle show me this mb a littel five mn!!!
September 1, 2010 at 15:20
huh? mb?
September 1, 2010 at 15:17
or if we will hve a new S (round number!!!)
September 1, 2010 at 15:23
first i wll see where closing (2 3 4 H)
September 1, 2010 at 15:26
So, what are the scenarios?
If … ?
September 1, 2010 at 15:31
for me the pair is still bearish (weekly monthly) and consolidation in daily i wll work wth bears when they want to do it!!!
September 1, 2010 at 15:44
Cool. Thanks.
September 1, 2010 at 16:49
i held on to my short at 1.277 and placed sl zt 1.29, now i think the recovery is progressing fine. just 28 negative now. Let c how is plays out
September 1, 2010 at 15:23
Some very heavyweight news tomorrow on EUR and USD. Market will start pricing in what is going to happen on Friday(NFP).
Be careful out there.
September 1, 2010 at 16:01
No doubt. Welcome to September!
September 1, 2010 at 16:02
@johnr thanks for the heads up man
September 1, 2010 at 16:07
@freez666 You’re welcome.
I’m not putting out any pending orders for tonight/tomorrow. I will only try a breakout trade between 0800 and 0900 high and lows.
After the the bunch of news are over, I will jump in on the direction…wherever it’s going.
In my opinion, I cannot tell what the short term trend is yet. We will probably only see that after all our news are over for this week.
Until then, trade on 4H S/Rs, and in favor of the trend bias(best of your own analysis).
September 1, 2010 at 16:44
*yawn*
I think today’s action is over.
Get some good rest everyone, and be on your toes for Thurs and Fri action.
September 1, 2010 at 16:52
HAve arestful night.
September 1, 2010 at 16:54
Hi there JohnR. You may miss the best part of the day :-) Anyway, have a good rest.
September 1, 2010 at 17:09
oh..it’s not night time for me…MST. I’ll be up for the next 12 hours….LOL
Are you referring to the car sales report due out soon.
What are your thoughts on that?