Archive For "November, 2010"

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that job creation was the most important issue facing the country. “Getting new jobs, getting unemployment down is of incredible importance,” Bernanke said during a panel discussion at The Ohio State University. The pace of growth has not been fast enough to bring down the high unemployment rate, he said. Bernanke said he was especially worried by the fact that more than 40% of those who are currently unemployed have been out of work for six months or more.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices and the dollar held onto the bulk of their gains on Tuesday after an index showed U.S. consumer confidence rose to 54.1 this month, a little stronger than some analysts had anticipated. Separately, the Chicago purchasing managers index rose more than expected, to 62.5 in November from 60.6 in October. Yields on 10-year notes, , which move inversely to prices, fell 5 basis points to 2.79%. The euro traded at $1.3012, after slipping under $1.30 earlier but still down from $1.3121 in late North American trade Monday. The dollar index , a measure of the U.S. unit against a basket of major rivals, rose to 81.229 from 80.797 on Monday.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The WikiLeaks disclosures that China may have been involved in hacking Google’s and other U.S. computer systems and the lack of support from China on Iran may help the prospects of a China currency bill getting a vote this year in the Senate, according to Brian Gardner, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. “Despite the 2010 election results, investors should understand that the U.S. political environment is still decidedly populist, and the China currency legislation is a tempting target for policy makers,” he said in a note to clients. The bill, which the House has already passed, would make it easier for the government to impose sanctions on Chinese exporters. Gardner nonetheless says the chances of the bill getting a vote are less than 50%.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The prices of single-family homes in 20 major cities fell a non-seasonally adjusted 0.7% in September, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s. Prices have moved up 0.6% in the past year, down from 1.7% in August. This is the fourth consecutive month where annual growth rates moderated from the prior month’s pace, confirming a “clear deceleration in home price returns,” S&P said. Home prices decreased in 18 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Shiller in September compared with August.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The S&P/Case -Shiller home price index for September is due for release at 9 a.m. Eastern. Economists expect a modest decline. A moderation in demand following the expiration of a government tax credit and typically slower activity in the late summer and fall should push prices lower, analysts said.

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Consumer price inflation in the 16-nation euro zone rose at an annual rate of 1.9% in November, unchanged from the rate seen in October, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported Tuesday. The figure was in line with expectations.

LONDON (MarketWatch) — The yield on 10-year Spanish government bonds jumped to 5.63% in early trade Tuesday, up from around 5.43% on Monday and pushing the yield premium over 10-year German bunds to more than three full percentage points, strategists said. Yields move in the opposite direction of prices. Other peripheral euro-zone government bond yields also jumped, with the yield on 10-year Portuguese bonds rising to around 7.07% from near 7.02% in early action Tuesday. The Irish 10-year yield was seen at 9.25%, while the Italian 10-year yield rose to 4.77% from around 4.64%. “Ireland’s bailout did nothing to ease the euro-zone debt crisis: it might have even made it worse,” said Steven Barrow, strategist at Standard Bank. The euro extended its slide to trade at $1.3016 versus the dollar, a decline of 0.7%.

LONDON (MarketWatch) — The seasonally-adjusted number of jobless workers in Germany fell by 9,000 in November, the nation’s federal labor office reported Tuesday. Economists had forecast a decline of 20,000 after a fall of 3,000 in October. The adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.5%, matching expectations.

Daily Outlook: Good job to everyone who everyone who got in on the secondary trade yesterday (short on a break of 1.32 with targets down to 1.31) – it proved good for a quick 100 pips. I personally missed it because I do actually sleep some days :).

The recent downtrend has been nothing short of spectacular recently – we have had 7 straight bearish days for a drop of over 700 pips! I feel bad for any traders who have been trying to long it – it is like trying to stand in front of a run-away train. Today’s technical picture is a bit less clear. I’m all for a good trend but with every good trend there is give and take – retracements. Retracements are a regular and healthy part of trends to make sure that the rubber band does not break, like stretching before a run to make sure you don’t injure your muscles. If no retracement occurs it can mean we are seeing an extinction burst and that a reversal is near.

To compensate for the lack of a retracement I am tweaking my trading ideas for the day to allow for further downside, while cautiously acknowledging that a retracment is more likely today than it was yesterday.

As always CandlePro users can check multiple pairs/timeframes for intraday candlestick signals and you should watch out for news events on the forex calendar.

Trading Idea: Primary trade will be to short on a sustained break of 3075 on 1h charts – keep your stops tight! This is an aggressive trade meant to capture any further downside. Short targets at 1.3060, 3035, 3005 and 2985 for 90 pips profit.

Secondary trade is also aggressive – if we see another stab down and some good candlePRO signals around 1.30 then a reversal long is in order for a retracment into the 1.31, 1.32 resistance zones.

Finally the most conservative and long-term trade is to stay flat until we see either a better opportunity to short around 1.3400 or for better daily signals to match up.

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LONDON (MarketWatch) — The Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent budget-review panel established by the British government, on Monday lowered its forecast for 2011 gross domestic product growth to 2.1% from a June forecast of 2.3% and projected 2012 growth of 2.6% versus a previous estimate of 2.8%. The OBR raised its 2010 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 1.3%, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth in the second and third quarters. The OBR made no major changes to its forecasts for government borrowing. It estimates borrowing needs in 2010-11 of 148.5 billion pounds ($231.7 billion), little changed from a June forecast of 149 billion pounds. Borrowing for 2011-12 was raised to 117 billion pounds from 115 billion, while 2012-13 borrowing is seen at 91 billion pounds versus 89 billion pounds. The OBR said the government’s decision in its October spending review to reduce planned cuts in public-services spending in favor of deeper cuts in welfare spending will reduce public-sector job losses to around 330,000 over the next four years versus a June projection of 490,000.