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Daily Outlook: All targets hit on yesterday’s short from 3295 for +100 pips as the pair took a big fall after the main support break:
We are long on the resistance break at current price (3191 – where the email alert went out) but we have a short leash on the trade (SL just 35 pips down at the moment) as we are still very bearish on the pair after the major support break early this week. The pair is oversold though and stalling under the extremely sharp falling trend resistance so with this support break we will look to capture a few pips on the swing upward before looking to get short again.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is long from 3191 after the resistance break targeting 20/20/25/25 pips for 90 pips potential. As mentioned above we have a short leash on this trade as we are primarily bearish on this pair. We can’t detail out a secondary trade at the moment because we will wait for a new support line to form and break before getting short – we will update the S/R lines in PRO as it develops through the day.
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December 13, 2011 at 14:45
hey there @ all longies =). is 3260 a realistic tp level?
December 13, 2011 at 14:48
I would love to see a swing above 3225 @Simon. But step by step maybe 1st 3220 and then 3250, then 3260 after and who knows what comes next when we are nearing the Big Event later today ? :-)
December 13, 2011 at 14:49
hehe good to hear that from you johnny! let’s give that baby some redbull and it might get wings and fligh high =)
December 13, 2011 at 14:50
Some food for thought :-)
(RTTNews) – The proceeds from a sale of Spanish debt on Tuesday exceeded the maximum target as demand for the one-year paper improved and borrowing costs declined.
The Treasury successfully placed EUR 4.94 billion of 12-month and 18-month bills versus the EUR 4.25 billion maximum target set for the sale.
The agency placed EUR 3.4 billion of 12-month bills at an average yield of 4.050 percent, down from 5.022 percent in the previous auction held on November 15. Demand was 3.14 times the amount on offer, up from 2.1 in the previous sale. The auction attracted bids for EUR 10.824 billion.
The yield on the 18-month paper fell to 4.226 percent from 5.159 percent in the November auction. The Treasury sold EUR 1.498 billion of the bills versus the bid amount of EUR 7.452 billion. The bid-to-cover ratio was 4.97, down from 5.96 in the previous sale.
The news of some respite for Spain came as the country’s Parliament held its first session today following the November 20 landslide victory of the People’s Party led by Mariano Rajoy.
Yesterday, Italy successfully placed EUR 7 billion of 12-month treasury bills in an auction at lower cost after the government approved an extensive budget plan last week.
Meanwhile, Greece had to pay a higher rate for its short-term debt. The debt-laden country, which tapped markets after Spain, raised EUR 1.625 billion from a sale of its 6-month treasury bills. The yield rose to 4.95 percent from 4.89 percent in a November 8 auction. The bid-to-cover ratio, however, improved to 2.93 from 2.91.
A mission of the troika, which consists of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, started a visit to Athens yesterday. Troika officials are holding talks with Greek authorities regarding the second bailout deal.
The Greek Finance Ministry reported today that the country’s budget deficit widened 5 percent in the January to November period to EUR 20.5 billion. The 2012 budget plan, approved last week, aims to cut the budget deficit to 9 percent this year.
Elsewhere today, Belgium raised short-term funds at lower cost. The debt agency sold EUR 1.101 from the sale of two types of treasury certificates. It was the final sale of the year.
The yield on the 3-month Belgian treasury certificates plunged to 0.78 percent in the latest sale from 2.185 percent in a auction held on November 29. The agency sold 12-month debt at a yield of 2.167 percent, which was less than 3.396 percent in a November 15 sale.
Demand was strong for the 3-month Belgian debt at 8.59 times, up from 5.61 in the previous auction. The cover ratio for the one-year debt was 2.21 percent, up from 1.64 percent.
Last week, a new coalition government led by socialist Elio Di Rupo was sworn into office, ending a long political crisis that had left the country without an elected administration for 540 days. The country’s major political parties reached a deal on November 26 to agree the austerity budget, after rating agency Standard & Poor’s cut the country’s credit rating citing the political impasse.
Also today, the Eurozone bailout fund held its first bill auction as part of its short-term funding programme. An auction of short-term bills by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) saw strong demand and the facility raised more than EUR 6.2 billion. Over EUR 2 billion bids were non-competitive. The bid-to-cover ratio was 3.2.
The EFSF sold three-month bills of EUR 1.971 billion at a yield of 0.2222 percent. The maturity date is March 15, 2012. The auction was carried out by the German Finance Agency using the Bundesbank’s EFSF bidding system.
Last Friday, the European Union agreed to establish a new “fiscal compact” to move towards a stronger economic union and budget discipline. But, the deal was rejected by the U.K., which was demanding protection for its financial sector.
The Friday EU summit also decided to boost the International Monetary Fund resources by EUR 200 billion to deal with the debt crisis. They also laid out a plan to accelerate the entry into force of the EUR 500 billion-European Stability Mechanism by July 2012.
Despite a series of summits, analysts say EU leaders are yet to find a concrete solution to the sovereign debt crisis. Today, Moody’s Investors Service said that it intends to review the ratings of all EU sovereigns during the first quarter of 2012, citing a continued absence of decisive policy measures.
Ahead of the crucial EU summit last Friday, rating agency Standard and Poor’s placed the ratings of 15 Eurozone nations, including Germany and France, under ‘CreditWatch Negative’. Two days later, S&P placed the debt rating of the European Union under the ‘CreditWatch’ with negative.
December 13, 2011 at 14:51
man, i had to take profit here…it hurts, but at the same time…it’S already good money for a poor student like me
December 13, 2011 at 14:52
The headache levels on our way up (for the moment as I see them!)
3233 – 3253 and 3278
Lets see?
December 13, 2011 at 14:52
but as someone said once in this forum…never regret taking profit =). letz see, i might hop on/off again GL
December 13, 2011 at 14:54
Nice those hop on hop off buses in the big city’s….specially when you’re on the upper open deck in London when it rains (or the bridge is a bit too low) :-) @Simon :-)
December 13, 2011 at 15:00
The Big Event of today…Bernanke’s QE ???
December 13, 2011 at 15:05
When is it?
Closing trade beforehand
December 13, 2011 at 15:10
adblue.com usually shows all the major and important events coming up…but the website is down at the moment…anyone’s got an idea when the event will take place?
thx
December 13, 2011 at 15:03
Is Mark gonna trow in an update @Piphut ??? Just noticed him in the right corner :-)
December 13, 2011 at 15:12
Sharp eyes you’ve got there :). Still bearish but still long from this morning. Tracking new rising support I will look to get short on a break of (to view the updated chart in pro click “S/R Charts and Notifications”)
December 13, 2011 at 15:21
Thank @Piphut :-)
December 13, 2011 at 15:07
i though that our long was heading in the right way until we were stopped by 3236 . Lets hope we break it this time and get up to 3270 .
December 13, 2011 at 15:09
If we do climb, im playing safe and closing at 30…will get back on a short
December 13, 2011 at 15:11
Looking around, possible bearish flag @ 4 tf -
December 13, 2011 at 15:22
gartley @ 5 min timeframe?
December 13, 2011 at 15:22
Risk looks to be rallying somewhat on talk that Bernanke/FOMC may hint at QE3 in today’s statement…We are expecting a more status quo statement that won’t mention QE3 given the recent pick-up in US data, so the rally may fizzle after the 2:15 ET statement.
December 13, 2011 at 15:23
Oil is sharply higher on reports that the Iranians have closed the Straits of Hormuz…This, too, is an old story, where yesterday Iranian military sources indicated they would hold exercises practicing closing the Strait. Think selling strength in the 101.50/90 area, below trendline resistance from recent highs, may be worth considering.
December 13, 2011 at 15:27
johnny, whats your SL? drop sucked me 30 pips down so far
December 13, 2011 at 15:31
2011/12/13 15:30:00 Euro unwinding here as it takes out yesterday’s lows…October low around 1.3145/50 remains and there are a rumored large amount of stops below
@Ran, including my Stop…
December 13, 2011 at 15:37
stopped out @ 50 pips loss, love you forex sincerely, ran
December 13, 2011 at 15:38
wow these bears won just give up
December 13, 2011 at 15:41
need a cig, some break, be back later to play catch up>
December 13, 2011 at 15:43
EUR lower on word that Merkel opposes raising the upper limits on bailout funds
December 13, 2011 at 15:44
daaaaaaaaaamn, the gain from before lost again…simply because i could not stop!! but now let’s rebound!!
December 13, 2011 at 15:45
it shouldn’t break 1.3100….
December 13, 2011 at 15:59
Problem by sending the comments :
Hello everyone, hope all our friends got good profit again from Euro game these days, personally I am not trading these days as the end of the year and many many surprises but thought now is the time to give some comment here, @Simon, in fact that 3108 is the key and if I want to go long then this level very good one, but if we will break 3108 @ 3077 to 3053 then next level will be 3044 our break out low daily where we will have another drop waiting or by any chance bounce up again from that level.
But back to 3108 if from here we will back up then my view 3282 and then 3300 this time,
December 13, 2011 at 16:04
thx @ luxma….am in deep deep trouble here…hoping really really that it goes up soon!
December 13, 2011 at 16:10
@Simon, sorry for that news but you have to see the trend at the moment if 3044 as break out down daily goes lower then 3026 and 3017 next levels we have at the moment H&S playing but the chance is good for more upside if able to break 3077 @3108 , I wish you all GL
December 13, 2011 at 16:00
why and what s that sell off???
December 13, 2011 at 16:14
weekly fibo is at 1.3000 – 1.3060 this is why
December 13, 2011 at 16:16
61.80%
December 13, 2011 at 16:13
Yep, Thanks Frau Merkel :-(
Approaching psycho level 1,30 – but 3055 seems to hold and we may see 3145 back?
Had told myself y/day to leave it for what it is for the rest of this year, still took jumped in today…. Grrrrrr….
December 13, 2011 at 16:19
@johnny, its really hard to stay and watch….I just took a heavy hit today…been trading bigger lots, so its not very pretty. but thats forex.
I am long now(very big trade) no SL, for a good correction up > Good luck everyone !
December 13, 2011 at 16:21
guys, letz put all our money together and push this thing up!! =)
December 13, 2011 at 16:22
Long closed (-30) and short entered on the support break (PRO email alert sent at 3163) already hit +100.
December 13, 2011 at 16:24
FYI the long trade did hit +40 but we did not take any profit as we were going for 90 pips on the trade. 10 more pips and we would have moved to break even :p
December 13, 2011 at 16:25
Whats your take now? Open long positions or hold?
December 13, 2011 at 16:26
Flat. We will wait for a resistance line to form and break before getting long. No need to try and call a bottom now.
December 13, 2011 at 16:25
@ piphut…any consoling words for those stuck in longs right now? thx =)
December 13, 2011 at 16:27
Nope – what’s the evidence for going long at the moment?
December 13, 2011 at 16:36
Let me qualify that – we use an S/R and candlestick based trading system, and we don’t see any evidence to go long yet within those parameters. Might the pair go up? Of course, but we use pretty strict and well defined trading triggers to keep ourselves from making emotional trades outside of OUR system. There are undoubtedly many other trading criteria out there that do call for a long (probably based on the pair being “oversold”)
December 13, 2011 at 17:14
thx for that detailed response! as i am facing a little conundrum here…i have to go with long…BUT that is exactly why (if i can get out of this trade without killing my account) i will be trading with candle pro very soon =)
December 13, 2011 at 16:33
Some talk the selling is related to the 1600GMT London fixing, but no sign of any let up in the slide post fixing.
December 13, 2011 at 17:15
man I keep missing these major moves, hopefully we get a little bounce I can short from soon….anybody see a floor at 1.3? Daily stoch looking bearish this week, new lows for 2011?
December 13, 2011 at 17:17
what do you guys think of this…u think this could cause a little bounce up? (this is taken from forex live…jamie coleman)
“There has been talk of a discount rate cut in the wake of the Fed’s move to lower the rates on Fed currency swaps with foreign central banks.
The discount rate is no longer the Fed’s policy rate, but it is a penalty rate set well above the market for emergency funding. It stands at 0.75% today. That’s quite a penalty with the Fed funds rate near zero.
The Fed could lower that rate, but it would merely be symbolic. If the dollar is sold on the announcement, feel free to take advantage and buy the dip. It won’t last long.”
December 13, 2011 at 17:21
EUR/USD sees the 61.8% retracement of the move higher since June 2010 around 1.3045/50
December 13, 2011 at 17:52
@johnny do you think this fibo will bounce up? And if so short again?
December 13, 2011 at 18:10
@Culture –
Comment left on:
December 13, 2011 at 16:13
johnny says:
Yep, Thanks Frau Merkel :-(
Approaching psycho level 1,30 – but 3055 seems to hold and we may see 3145 back?
Had told myself y/day to leave it for what it is for the rest of this year, still took jumped in today…. Grrrrrr….
I went Long there (3060) and may be the biggest fool of them all !!! (No need following thats for sure!!!)
I wanna see 3145/3165/3200 and eventual 3235 back (Step by step)
Although we’re very much in a down trend and its Bearish alright…The fall we’ve seen was mainly due to Frau Merkel opened her mouth…..Let now Mr Ben open his too!!!
As Jamie (FXLive) mentioned very well, it maybe short lived…but I expect a little bounce before we will be getting 1,28 insight…
(And we may even be seeing 1,28 before we will 1,31 !!!)
But…This is just my view, and do as you pls! (Its not approved for sure by Mark :-))
TC
December 13, 2011 at 18:24
@johnny thanks for your view, I think we will see a bit of a jump, I would like to go short from a better level, but I think we may see further down over the coming days, seems we are reliving those last weeks of 2010! maybe we will see those lows again….is this a H&S on weekly?
December 13, 2011 at 18:34
@Culture – Btw. My friend informed me today that our mutual friend (Mgdrd) took a Long last night….Thats against the trend too according to me? :-) So its not only Mark’s idea today :-)
December 13, 2011 at 18:54
3155…maybe 3180 (longer term though!) …It depends also a bit on Bernanke….Will it just be a Non-Event??? Or has Ben still got a little surprise???
Still Long from 3060 with a fairly tight SL behing it … :-(
December 13, 2011 at 18:54
Going for a coffee…See ya…
December 13, 2011 at 19:02
@johnny yes megadroid went long at 3174 with tp 3230, I took profit way before then because I thought it might drop, but the target was hit. Right now I am playing the waiting game, though would like to see a good setup show itself soon
December 13, 2011 at 19:21
@Culture – Had a tight SL and so stopped out. It surely was a Non-Event Bernanke Show :-(
December 13, 2011 at 19:22
johnny…sorry to hear that!! do u think there is any hope to see 31 today still?
December 13, 2011 at 19:25
@Simon – I would def not ruled out to see 3150/3200 back. But I rather sell the rallies now insted of going Long at this point :-)
December 13, 2011 at 19:27
yeah i understand that…would do the same…but u know, i am stuck with a long with a BIG lot and so i need to see 1.3100….then it is good…but the day is almost over….=(
December 13, 2011 at 19:29
@Simon – Got ya. And I went (again) back in Long here @3060 (As before).
December 13, 2011 at 19:31
We’ve got a PL on the Hourly. It somehow (How Bearish it may look) should recover the least a tiny bit :-)
A break in 3045 would not be nice though :-(
December 13, 2011 at 19:33
Bull hammer 4 on M15 and Bear Engulf on M30…
December 13, 2011 at 19:34
3047 in EUR/USD is the 61.8% retracement of the big move from 1.1877-1.4940 and marks the low for now
December 13, 2011 at 19:41
@Simon , now we are @-61.8% Low 3026 as said before and next S2 ,3017 if not hold next level break of 3017 will be first 1.2945 and then S3 , 1.2874, as long as the pair is not able to go over 3108 all long orders in danger
December 13, 2011 at 19:55
hi there, thx for the info! am still in the battle and need to see 3080 back to be happy…what do ur technicals say to that? thx
December 13, 2011 at 19:58
@Simon – It shows 3135 on my chart for now…That is…If it picks up further more???
But we might touch 1,30 just as well before?
It seems to have found some bottom @ 3025 as it loks like (Dont know if its foundation is properly done though?)
December 13, 2011 at 20:01
thx johnny…i do hope ur chart’s right…wow, if we can get 3080 in the next 2 hours i am one happy austrian =)
December 13, 2011 at 19:48
G/U already in a fight with its Psycho level (5500)…
December 13, 2011 at 19:59
didn’t really expect a 70 pip drop so soon, was considering a brief long, but not anymore, will short when 5 mon stoch reaches overbought again, I think we will break 1.3 today, then maybe see 1.28 before the week is up
December 13, 2011 at 20:04
1.3044 (breakout low) to 1.3053 then 3077 as -38.2% Low and then S1 3090, if it will go over 3053 now then @Simon you can be happy but right now no more power and maybe we will see more by Asian, wish yo GL and have good night,
December 13, 2011 at 20:08
@Simon – Looks like we are in range bound zone now. as said before, we could get back above 3100. Lets see what US close will bring us?
December 13, 2011 at 20:18
Off to bed, had enough of it for today….