Forex Signals – EURUSD Intraday Update
Intraday Update! – with markets still reacting to the Greek elections and, to a lesser extent, the French elections (which all but rule out tough austerity measures in France), we did an intraday update today to let the markets work out their kinks a bit. Enjoy!
Recap: The news out of the weekend is, of course, Greek elections which did elect the pro-eurozone parties however it remains to be seen if those parties can form a coalition government. Already doubts are beginning to crop up as the the austerity measures attached to the bailout are a sticking point for a quick coalition. The worse case scenario for the short-term would be if a coalition government is not reached the Greeks will go back to the polls for a THIRD election this year. The longer term threat of course is a Greek exit from the eurozone altogether.
Markets have predictably bought the rumor and sold the news. You can make any fundamental explanation you want (e.g. doubts of a coalition government, austerity measures, Spain worries, etc.) but, as always these explanations are just telling us what we’ve already seen and are therefore not useful for us day traders. We prefer to stick to our technical systems (swing trading) which give us forecasts of future moves (based on past moves) and entries/exits for those moves.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jun 18 |
05:00 | JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report | ||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: After opening on a bullish gap the EU has taken a nose dive, quickly closing that gap and dropping more than 200 pips in the process. We are bearish on the pair after it has smashed through support levels but will take a technical long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips. We will tighten our SL quickly and looking to close and get short on a support break if one occurs.
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Maria
June 18, 2012 at 15:20Thank you @PipHut
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 15:25Agree on all counts, John.
No 20 pips isn’t so bad, specially after the 200 pips profit in the morning, but I’m so frustrated with not understanding the market at the moment.
Just having a bad day, ignore me. No more trading for me in the next couple of hours, I’m too emotional.
I’ll come back with a clear head and a plan. GL
Comment left on:
June 18, 2012 at 15:15
johnr says:
Well…looks like we both have opposite (complementary) skills.
20 pips loss ain’t so bad
2550/70 is 200 MA and should be strong support for today if you like a small long opportunity.
FYI, I stayed away since yesterday. SO, it looks like the bear trend is here to stay. However, FOMC this Wednesday may give a Bullish shock. Just saying.
John R
June 18, 2012 at 15:45I meant 30 pips. Brain was saying 30 pips, but the and typed 20 pips.
But anyway…. life is good! I had a great sleep, not worrying about monday trades. I certainly avoided another major slip last last Monday, where the indicators pointed Long, but the market went south.
You can’t catch me the second time! hahaha.
Gap closing theory – I was once an ardent believer. But May’s unfulfilled gaps apostatized me!
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 15:52Yes, maybe that’s my reason for the clouded mind, still jet lagged and slept about 3h.
Gaps closing, over-closing and not closing are all good valid signals but I don’t traditionally trade them unless I have open trades over WE, I normally just use them for a weekly bias support.
The first unclosed gap in May was a massively bearish indication as well as the gap over-closing today. Not that it couldn’t be reversed through the week by other event risk, but at least it tells you where it’s got it’s mind set to at the moment.
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 15:37i saw this earlier i took a short near 2650 !! (when 2634 hit and a up after) my profit was 2590 Comment left on:
June 18, 2012 at 13:29
saharaview says:
clear chart :: s in 2634 area is brroken (next s 2543 AREA° NOW WE HAVE 2580 AREA below we can see 2554 and 2530 !!!! tell us when y macd change
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 15:40Very nice Sahara
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 15:49it was a answer after @doc chart !!!!……………. this is mt 2H http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/4/65162728.png/
gybankster
June 18, 2012 at 15:50shorting the rallies,has made pips in the tin yet again.long may it go on the trend is your friend
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 18, 2012 at 16:00Day trading while going out and doing other (important) things aint that easy….
My Long runned into my stop….Grrrrrr quite some pippies lost :-(
Anyway, went Long again just now @2565 and looking for @2600 as first tp….Have to get some om them pippies back…
Should have lissened to myself….Wasnt planning on trading today (or even not tomorrow) and just let the market ease a bit after the elections news…..Had a nice collection in the bag this morning….But I just cant follow it up closely when I discussing business matters with other people….Foolish of me to have opened a trade this morning….but to late now….
Gonna get my pippies on the last trade back, and thats a fact :-)
TC
BeMoreWild
June 18, 2012 at 20:12Hey Johny boy wish u a very best of luck and no wonder its a wild child;) u got a nice long over there a good catch i must say:) bulls r hard to be tammmed:)
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 16:04Back in my temple on my trown….Where I can oversee things just a little bit better then on the road on my pocketpc….Grrrrr. Its handy but a screen in front of you is just a little bit more pleasant.
Go baby, get that thief and bring my pippies back….
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 16:0782 88 95 the p d.
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 16:52Adjusted my tp to 2625 insted of 2600 for now (may go little above there?) Lets see?
John R
June 18, 2012 at 17:008 pips delivered for my supper of the day
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 17:10Still Long John (LongJohn? Thats my winter piyamas :-)) and keeping it until 2625. Once it has touched there I may turn Short again from same level…May even go a bit more higher there.But I feel we need to see 2625 first before seeing 2515. :-)
John R
June 18, 2012 at 17:17Long for 8 pips only. Nothing LOONger than that.
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 17:12What you getting on the table for the 8 pips @John? Just qurious :-)
John R
June 18, 2012 at 17:17$100
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 17:22Nah, I dont wanna know figures …..:-) Just wanted to know what will be served for the 8 pips….
(But now youve mentioned it, could have a very good meal and a bottle of wine with coffee and cognac there after :-)) Cheers…
I am out for sometime…..All set and done…
GL
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 17:46am thirsty!!
John R
June 18, 2012 at 21:09No wine for me. I like cash on the table.
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 17:46my 15 now http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/407/2555f.png/
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 19:37have a good night all
Dean
June 18, 2012 at 21:38Still keep my shorts from 1.2740,target open))
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 02:46Sorry @Dean but I went Long @2565 for a good reason. (Nice pattern on my chart).
We’ve slided y/day (Monday), a lot actually. But as I said, monday wasnt a good day to trade (Wish I stayed out) after the Big Weekend News (Which wasnt that big to me).
Now today the market is back to ‘normality’ (it never is a normal market to me but lets just say its back as usual :-) ) TYhey have let the news flow into it all now.
Today all the Big Dogs are today back in full…And we will be back on track again.
My Long @2565 (After that y/day patttern) will do nicely just wait and see! I am leaving it running because I feel we are going to see the early Highs again (Back to @2730 again).
We havent gone below 2500 and to me thats a good sign and the Bull is def. still around!
But, simplicity does it, so I ll do it step by step…..Lets see 3640/50 what happens there?
But as said, I am looking to see 2730 and above back again after I just now gone through my little FX Puzzle….
GL to you Dean
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 02:48Btw I am early this morning cause I have to go some place again (on the road) but will be back soon.
And remember, above somment is just my view! It up up and away to the top….Bull aint def. not defeated yet cause I wanna see 1,28 – 1,30 still…..But, do as you please!
GL
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 03:47Still home, got a call trip cancelled…How nice, woke up early for nothing…Cant sleep no more now so with a little headache peeking in here as an early bird. :-)
I may close my Long around 2630 and go Short for little while to around 2560/70….From there it will be back up again (Long) to higher levels…. Still looking to see 2730 and above back….Lets see?
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 04:07Translation…
BRICS promise IMF extra money
LOS CABOS – the emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa set more money available for the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
That left the countries, which manifest themselves as a group under the abbreviation BRICS, know following a meeting Monday in the framework of the G20 Summit.The new economic powers not on how much money the IMF gave can count. They are attached to the new resources in addition to the condition that all the promised reforms that emerging countries must give more power within the IMF be implemented.The IMF is looking for 430 billion dollars in new resources to countries in distress can help. This is all about 340 billion dollars promised.
Chip
June 19, 2012 at 04:08Good morning Johnny, I woke up early too (my son woke me up).
It looks to me that today is gonna be another “short the rallies” kinda day.
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 04:13(RTTNews) – The Group of Twenty nations urged more efforts by Europe to contain the debt crisis during Monday’s meeting at Los Cabos in Mexico, while the BRICS nations vowed to step up their contribution to the International Monetary Fund in order to support Europe to fight the turmoil.
Eurozone members should “take all necessary policy measures” to safeguard the stability of the single currency bloc, reports said citing the G20 draft communique, to be released at the end of the G20 meeting on Tuesday.
According to the communique, G20 leaders have prepared a coordinated global action plan to deal with the Eurozone crisis and slowing global growth. The plan reportedly aims to boost economic growth and job creation.
The BRICS, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, acknowledged the need to provide more resources for international financial organizations, particularly the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Russia and India have already pledged $10 billion each.
Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Monday met German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The two leaders cited the importance of resisting the adoption of protectionist measures and of promoting trade liberalization as an effective means to strengthen economic growth and employment.
Now is the time “to make sure that all of us join to do what’s necessary to stabilize the world financial system, to avoid protectionism, to ensure that we are working hand-in-hand to both grow the economy and create jobs while taking a responsible approach long term and medium term towards our fiscal structures,” US President Barack Obama said in a press statement after his meeting with Calderon.
Ahead of the G20 summit, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said he expects the G20 leaders to support and to express their confidence in the steps already taken by Europe. “We are taking immediate steps to boost growth through targeted investment and we are pursuing important structural reforms.”
He noted that the European Union is working to build a banking union and deepen fiscal integration, while enhancing euro governance. The Commission will be ready this autumn to make proposals for more effective and integrated banking supervision, a common deposit guarantee system and an integrated banking resolution scheme.
“As G20 leaders, we all need to make ambitious and responsible contributions to remove obstacles to growth and tackle the unacceptable high levels of unemployment,” he added. Barroso also urged the G20 to consider a Financial Transaction Tax at global level.
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 04:21Hi there @Chip…My work made me wake up early but…in vain (Schedule cancelled) :-(
Could well be to sell the rallies again….But if I have to believe my fx puzzle I think we’re moving back up again (May go short a bit as I just mentioned few comments here above, but then its back up again if I am not mistaken)
Good support we can find around 2525/30 (trendline from the 6/1 low)
A break above 2680/85 and the Bullies will really start rocking the boat again and we ll see the early made highs back.
My stop below 2500 and my aiming TP @2730…But as said, it will not be a direct A to B train :-)
GL
Chip
June 19, 2012 at 04:48If we get a little help from our Greek brothers (announcing today that they finally managed to form a government) we may well go up to 1.28 in the next few days.
I’m worried though about the spanish 10 year at 7.158% that caused the yesterday fall despite the relative good news from Greece (Spain is much bigger).
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 04:27@Chip – In other words and to say it plain simple….I guess the Guys in here that really looking forward and wanna Short this baby to 1,20 or even partity (@Doc & @Dean @Dick and @Down :-)) will just have to wait for a while longer :-) Dont think we gonna see another slide of 200 pips down soon again :-)
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 04:54As already mentioned above. May take close long and turn short around 2630…Back down to 2560/70 and from where I may long again. Lets see?
Out for a while…
Maria
June 19, 2012 at 05:26Good morning,
New mid-term plan: re-building a short set from current levels up to 12 positions finishing at 1.2850 at the moment. As always higher bigger size.
First short objective around 1.24, second the previous low around 1.229, third 1.20. Sustained break over 1.3 invalidates and opens the possibility to 1.35, therefore over 1.3 I would take a loss and/or rescue partially depending on the action.
Wish you all a great day!
Disclaimer: this is only my personal view, this is not a day trade and the set can last for couple of weeks – I do not pay attention to time for mid-long term sets. I have been more often wrong than right.
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 19, 2012 at 05:52The Keys today (according to me)….The Door that opens the road Up @2650, and the Door that opens the road to Down @2550
Lets see?
Harry
June 19, 2012 at 06:31Hi everyone
Up today I think – 1.2700 or more
sahara
June 19, 2012 at 06:34gm @all
sahara
June 19, 2012 at 06:365678 area sell gu
sahara
June 19, 2012 at 06:38not in !! (will follow where 15 will close
sahara
June 19, 2012 at 07:002615/20 area will tell us if we can sell ??
Kobe
June 19, 2012 at 07:06still in my long 2632 tp 2720, resistance almost broken so our master will step in long. to 27 or so.. lets see if we get to the 1.28
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 19, 2012 at 07:08@Sahara I may sell from 2630 :-) Lets see? GM
Kobe
June 19, 2012 at 08:07i closed my long with some loss.. that’s okay (small lot). it is lacking power to the upside, we might slide back to 1.25 or lower.. just my view so itook a short from 1.26 tp 1.253
sahara
June 19, 2012 at 08:28quick pips!!
Chip
June 19, 2012 at 08:45There’s a little battle for the 1.2580 level we’ll see who wins it.
My money’s on the bears.
Chip
June 19, 2012 at 08:52I lost the bet … oups
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 08:55Still having one lot Long, sl below 2500 and tp @2730 and leaving that one running.
Other Long, may close around 2630 to take a little short with that one once it has touched tp 2630.
My money is on the Bullies @Chip :-)
Comment left on:
June 19, 2012 at 02:46
johnny says:
Sorry @Dean but I went Long @2565 for a good reason. (Nice pattern on my chart).
We’ve slided y/day (Monday), a lot actually. But as I said, monday wasnt a good day to trade (Wish I stayed out) after the Big Weekend News (Which wasnt that big to me).
Now today the market is back to ‘normality’ (it never is a normal market to me but lets just say its back as usual :-) ) TYhey have let the news flow into it all now.
Today all the Big Dogs are today back in full…And we will be back on track again.
My Long @2565 (After that y/day patttern) will do nicely just wait and see! I am leaving it running because I feel we are going to see the early Highs again (Back to @2730 again).
We havent gone below 2500 and to me thats a good sign and the Bull is def. still around!
But, simplicity does it, so I ll do it step by step…..Lets see 3640/50 what happens there?
But as said, I am looking to see 2730 and above back again after I just now gone through my little FX Puzzle….
GL to you Dean
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 10:22Shifted Gears just here @2615…Lets see ?
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 10:22Sorry error, I mean 2625 !!
Johnny
June 19, 2012 at 10:25Aiming tp 2575/80 and once touched probably going Up (Long) again. Lets see?
Kobe
June 19, 2012 at 11:00new signal out!
shayed ahmed
June 20, 2012 at 02:35fast time EUR-USD market is up after 2 hours market going to sell