Forex Signals – EURUSD Slow Gains
Recap: We remained flat (no new positions) yesterday, as promised, and good thing we did! We were leaning bearish but without good S/R lines to work with our system ultimately decided to stay on the sidelines which avoided a loss as bulls continued to push the pair higher.
Overall another profitable day for PRO pairs as we came out ahead 33 pips on top of the 200 pips netted yesterday.
1.2670 is short term key resistance for EU as the June high.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Jun 15 |
02:52 | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (JUN 15) | 0.10% | |
| 08:30 | GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (APR) | -£8500 | -£8564 | |
| 13:55 | USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUN P) | 77.5 | 79.3 | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: With the weekend looming in front of us we will not open up any new positions but we are tracking a nice rising support on EU and, if we were in the markets today, we would look to get short on a support break targeting 85 pips. PRO users will still get email alerts for support breaks if you wish to trade.
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Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 15, 2012 at 16:28Picked from the net:
The second Greek election, coming Sunday the 17th of June, has been portrayed as a referendum on the Greek membership in the euro. The election results will remain unknown until after the polls close on Sunday, and even polls of the anticipated results are now illegal. The parties who were signatories to the bail out memorandum, the New Democracy and the Pasok Parties have been under attack from the Syriza Party. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the Syriza party, though he slams the bail out, now vows to stay in the euro.
With the many different parties, there is bound to be confusion, as the groups attempt to patch together a governing coalition. About 80% of what Greece consumes is imported. Confronted with the potential chaotic world where payment for everything would be made with a cheaper currency is a frightening alternative. It looks like Greece will opt to remain in the euro.
This assumes the EU wants Greece to remain, but it appears unlikely there is any leader or group of leaders, who are decisive enough to expel the Greeks. Besides the EU leaders have major problems with the Spanish and Italian debt issues, and do not wish to have a messy exit by the Greeks.
John R
June 15, 2012 at 16:44Hmm…2nd election.
WHy not 3rd and more in future?
John R
June 15, 2012 at 16:44I vote for Greece to stay, but FIRE every single minister and start all over.
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 15, 2012 at 16:45@Doc – from my friends, just partly though :-)
Nonetheless, the economic data here in the US didn’t do anything to dismiss additional action from the Fed, but instead it just gave them more opportunity to loosen the belt a couple notches. While the weekly jobless numbers usually behave as the opening act, this week they were thrown up on the main stage. These numbers can be volatile, but the trend has been moving in the wrong direction, so this was the last measure of employment before the Fed makes their decision on Wednesday. Since the labor market has become such an influential piece, the disappointing rise for initial jobless claims to 386k and the past few monthly jobs reports would certainly be the fall guy for those wanting more Fed action.
While the jobs figures may have fueled the fire, the inflation reports this week have given the scope to take action. According to these reports, we have no rise in inflation. Let me take that back, the reports say that inflation is actually falling. I saw a headline on Bloomberg that said the cost of living in the US fell in May by the most in more than three years. Maybe I’m doing something wrong, but there’s no way that my basic cost of living has gone down, not to mention by the biggest margin in three years. I’ll bite on the whole it costs less to fill up the gas tank thing, but that’s as far as I go.
The Greek election took another ride in the back seat as speculation of further Fed action gathers steam. The increase in jobless claims and the decrease in CPI just fueled the fire since jobs and inflation are at the top of the Fed’s list. The current account deficit widened to the biggest in three years, but that didn’t seem to bother anyone. Unless Greece drops the ball, the markets look to focus squarely on the Fed meeting next week. All of the major currencies finished in positive territory, but Brazil threw investors a bone by repealing a tax on foreign lending.
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 16:46just to inform CAUTION: Greek Elections Could Spur Immense Volatility, Euro Outlook Unclear
By Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 16:47CAUTION: Uncertain Landscape ahead due to Greek Elections Warrants Reduced Leverage
Greece is headed back to the polls this weekend following the inconclusive results of the May 6 parliamentary elections. Unlike the first elections, the June 17 elections have significant consequences tied to it that will likely result in exceptional market volatility. With the significant event risk expected to occur during hours FXCM’s trading platform is offline (17:00 EDT / 21:00 GMT on Friday to 17:00 EDT / 21:00 GMT on Sunday), Sunday’s open poses the threat of not only a significant gap, but spreads wider than usual as well. Accordingly, we believe that this is not the trading landscape to speculate, and we suggest reducing position sizes given the significant amount of uncertainty forthcoming.
To help traders make the best informed decision headed into the weekend’s critical event, please find below a concise summary of the likely outcomes of the Greek parliamentary elections, and for those interested, a fact sheet on each of the main parties competing in the Greek elections.
THE TAKEAWAY: June 17 Greek Parliamentary Elections > Outcome Could Determine Greece’s Fate in Euro-zone
There are two main parties vying for control of Greece’s government this weekend, the pro-bailout New Democracy party and the anti-bailout Syriza party. In a sense, and especially given the rhetoric deployed by non-Greek European leaders, these elections will determine the fate of Greece’s inclusion in the Euro-zone. It boils down to this: a vote for New Democracy is considered pro-Euro; and a vote for Syriza is considered anti-Euro.
We believe there are four likely outcomes to these elections, with the highest probability of a Euro-negative outcome this weekend. They are:
• SCENARIO #1: New Democracy wins elections and has parliamentary majority (> 151 votes) – EUR BULLISH – 10%
• SCENARIO #2: New Democracy wins elections but does not have majority – EUR BEARISH (least bearish outcome) – 45%
• SCENARIO #3: Syriza wins elections but does not have majority – EUR BEARISH (increasingly bearish outcome) – 40%
• SCENARIO #4: Syriza wins elections and has parliamentary majority – EUR BEARISH (most bearish outcome) – 5%
In light of these expected outcomes, we find it most likely that the elections will not yield the most bullish outcome (scenario #1), but instead, falling somewhere between the least bearish and moderately bearish outcomes (scenario #2, #3). We have derived these probabilities from recent poll figures as well as commentaries from citizens and reporters in Greece.
from fxcm
Kay
June 15, 2012 at 16:54going by these revealing info, it may b safer to leave short position open but to me that is still preempting and i am not good at that
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 16:57better to stay away !! pips are here all the year !! but if you can loose a few why not but better to do not
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 16:52but as you know , for states and obama (fed too and our friend timothy (!!) a lower $ is “in this we trust”
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 15, 2012 at 17:03@Sahara – Maybe the market will STOP on sunday evening…because of heavy rain/pips fall???
Just like now the match France – Ukraine ha ha
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 15, 2012 at 17:07Hit my first TP…Thank you now 2665 next :-)
Kobe
June 15, 2012 at 17:14good one @johnny!
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 15, 2012 at 17:092595 – 2650 = 3 – 0 for france….
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 17:10nice friends !! and do not forget to drink a cup !!! tchin tchin!!
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 17:14grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr offside!!
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 17:09@kobe congrats friend
Kobe
June 15, 2012 at 17:13thanks sahara! indeed tp hit 250 pips in the bag and flat for the weekend! great!
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 17:15doing very well friend !! i like you way to trade !!
DCKHDR
June 15, 2012 at 17:31Can I just say before I retire for the evening. Because I can not resist myself. That when you play Deutschland you can play all day and all ze night. But then you loose. Thats all. Goodnight.
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 18:06goooooooooooooooooooooooaaaaaaal
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 18:09re gooooooooooooooooooooooooaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal
DCKHDR
June 15, 2012 at 18:10ok. ok. Now i am really going to retire. Lay down with a big fat cigar in my mouth.
Kay
June 15, 2012 at 18:17:) in my country, Ministry of Health publicly displays that Smokers are liable to die young
John R
June 15, 2012 at 18:28Not to forget the amount of house fires caused by smoking in bed. haha
Kay
June 15, 2012 at 18:23Talk to you guys next week. I shall b gone for the week. take care and pls secure your earned pips for the week
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 18:27good week end friend !! still in area till the end of the soccer match
sahara
June 15, 2012 at 18:47have a good week end all !! a cup for france !!(2-0) congrats !!
Kobe
June 15, 2012 at 19:55i’m back home, going to close everything for the whole week-end, i will see how it opens on monday. I have friends inhere with longs and other friends with shorts,since i’m flat i do not really care how the market reacts, euro won’t blow up because of this election.
I’m not sure the big bang will happen this weekend, maybe a 20/50 pip gap, all the fundamentals were in the market, a nearly 1000 pip fall in may, and a nice 300 rise (twice) in the last two weeks, we have had the volatility already. i think next week two days of rise to 1.28 or so, and then fall again to 1.24 by the end of the week. Just my view of course, and only time will tell!
But for now i know for sure that i will have a great week-end starting now by preparing a nice gin & tonic!
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 16, 2012 at 02:47@Kobe – Gin & Tonic? Thats one of my favorites on a hot day :-)
Grrrrrrr Was just 1 pip away from my 2TP (2665) Grrrrrr
‘t amusement…
Art
June 16, 2012 at 18:41Russia should beat Greece,Poland get out Euro.
Art
June 16, 2012 at 20:54Well,greeks won,we can see again them euro champions))
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 07:56Good morning, I closed half of my shorts for about 150 pips loss on Friday close for safety, I still have the other half open with no stops nor targets making around 0,5% of the account.
If we do open with a gap up then depending on the election outcome I will probably be looking to add shorts higher (up to 1.3). Over 1.3 I will take a loss on the open shorts and either ride a long wave to 1.35 or wait until 1.35 and short there, which has been my mid-long term strategy for some months now.
The time to mark in the calendar prior to market open is 16:00 GMT for poll stations close, exit polls will follow shortly after that.
The best of luck, friends
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 17, 2012 at 10:37Its hurts closing trades with a loss (Know abt it) But, Its all in the game @Mary. Assuming you’re back, welcome to the old continent again (And what a culture, folklore and history we are having here hey? :-)) If we really move up (like I think we will) then you will easily be able to recover the loss sleigh sliding down once we’ve reached the top of the mountain.
I guess @Doc and some other guys didnt quite got me. Of course I know that, if you would keep a trade open in situations like we are facing this weekend (with very likely a possible gap at opening) it could blow your tp a/o sl apart. But I didnt actually mean setting a sl or tp. I just hope for the best and having a trail on it….As said, been there and done that. If you have an honest broker (which are hard to find) and we do open with a gap (Of course moved into the same direction that you have pulled your trade), then once market opens your trail shoots that direction too at that moment. Hope I am clear….? I just wait and see….And, no I wont blow up my account since I didnt bet heavily :-) Simplicity does it, step by step….Gap by Gap…:-)
Lets see what comes out of it? There are some important Euro 2012 matches going onm tonight and now that the Greeks know they are staying in for the next round and have kicked Russia out, this could just bring some joy among the friendly folks of Greece…
Because….How can you become winner of the Euro Championship, equal rights equal chances, if you wouldnt (want to) be a part of the europe any more????? :-)
Enjoy the rest of your weekend at GL at the opening to all of us….
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 11:16Thanks Johnny, appreciate it, yes I’m back and after sleeping for about 13h in my own bed starting to slowly feel like a real person again.
No, this loss didn’t hurt that much since the lost amount is such a small percentage of this month’s overall P/L, but I have only one week at home now until travelling again so it’s time to ramp up the analysis on Monday and really hit the market until coming Friday.
Enjoy what’s left of the WE!
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 11:32Here we go – Hand grenade thrown outside Greek TV station: http://aje.me/MyYnmh
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 16:02First exit poll by Star Channel: ND 27-30, SYRIZA 26-29, PASOK 10-12, Ind Greeks 6-8, Golden Dawn 6-8, Dem Left 6-7, KKE 5-6
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 16:04First exit poll by Mega TV: ND 27.5-30.5, SYRIZA 27-30, PASOK 10-12, Ind Gr 6-7.5, Golden Dawn 6-7.5, Dem Left 5.5-6.5, KKE 5-6
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 16:07SKAI opinion poll (11-14 June): SYRIZA 28%, ND 27.5%, PASOK 13%, Ind Greeks & Dem Left 7.5%, Communist Party & Golden Dawn 5.5%
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 16:14Too close to call, 2nd wave exit polls should be around 20:00 local time I believe.
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 16:222nd exit poll 6pm BST, 1st official results at 9:30pm Athens time/ 7:30pm UK time, then another release at 11pm Athens/ 9pm UK time
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 16:20Real-time official Greek vote tracker http://bit.ly/Mi9hLh
sahara
June 17, 2012 at 17:00hi
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 17:13Good evening Sahara :)
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 17:38full sample exit poll New Democracy 28.6-30% Syriza 27.5-28.4% Pasok 11-12.4% Ind % DemLeft 5.8-6.6% Golden Dawn 6.5-7.1%
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 17, 2012 at 19:36Got to 2733 so far ,now back to 2705…..
GL
PipHut Team
June 17, 2012 at 19:40Looks like we’ll have a eurozone for at least a big longer :)
Maria
June 17, 2012 at 20:25Sure @PipHut let’s give ND and Pasok a respectable 6 months to prove that their gov doesn’t work and call a 3rd election to re-analyze that strategy.
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 17, 2012 at 19:46A bit I guess is what you meant Mark…..Yeahm lets see if they will finally be able to form a cabinet together that last for a bit longer too :-)
I kinda blame the media in this whole thing,and how they bring out some articles which are way blown up…
Back to the match, see you tomorrow. Good day ahead.
Kobe
June 17, 2012 at 20:54good evening everyone! @johnny, good call to leave the longs open. I closed them on friday.
Euro is saved for now, there will be new problems arising soon, but first a couple of days to go to 1.30, but then back south i think.
Trade save this week!
(btw the market predicted the good news last two weeks.. funnny thing)
Almost holidays so the range could narrow.
Art
June 17, 2012 at 21:20Don’t forget about France:Hollande’s socialists won between 296 and 321 seats according to projections. Either way, it is enough for a majority in in the National Assembly.
Art
June 17, 2012 at 21:23Reverse very close,it may return from 1.2750-1.2820
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 18, 2012 at 05:49GM All – Quiet in here? And the Storm wasnt even a big one. In fact I havent noticed an explosion or a pip rain or a move of 200/300 or even 500 pips upward/downward (Like some professors in FX in the media were predicting…They were warning, they were telling (even our sweet Brokers) dont let your trade open during this weekend because its The End Of The World IS NEARING!!!!
Bla Bla and all B.shit….Because of all that talk…All that Media Hype and making their prints and letters even bigger and fatter…..scaring you to dead! Arrrghhhh thos Media sick people…They just love to sell their News and if its not attractive enough for the customer they will make it attractive so it will be bought! Again like now with the Greek election….As Mark use to say often….It very well was already Baked In….As we haven t seen a real Boost….O yes, we had a Gap (And I am happy with that Gap :-)) But they whole thing was made so heavy that everyone was holding his/her butt tide…Crazy really…..Now let it pass a day or maybe two and we will know where we are heading…
Meantime I just kept my trade (Long) open on Friday as I had a very good feeling it all was just a storm in a glass of water…
Happy for the Greeks they are still in the game (Both EURO 2012 and EUROZONE) and lets get back to normality and simplicity again.
TPs 1 – 2 and 3 reached….Almost there to see my last 4 TP….Lets see?
Comment left on:
June 15, 2012 at 13:24
johnny says:
Its really all abacadabra to me….Cant even make bread or chocolate from it……Just keep laughing about it , cause thats the best.
Anyway I am off to do other stuff…. GL
Here is my view (may be my last, who knows? Beginning to annoy me a bit this way)
Still Long from @2595 1tp @3650 2tp @2665 3tp @2710 4tp @2730
PS check M15 , what you see?
GL I m out…
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 18, 2012 at 05:53O and btw….The Weekly Bull we had last week (Which was kinda my guardian angel :-) never underestimate a WK Bull :-) is gone now of course….!!! New week…
But insted we now have a SS on the Daily !!! So watch your steps!!!
GL
Chip
June 18, 2012 at 05:59Good morning !
Johnny you had a good feeling, and the greeks helped you by 2,77% (this election was close indeed and I didn’t want to take that chance, instead I watched the market open for a few minutes and as I didn’t see any action I went to sleep (it was 1AM my local time). And in the morning I saw the chart but nothing spectacular as you said Johnny so we’ll wait and see if the greeks are able to form a government (they have 3 days at max. but they should do it today), and of course the G20 meeting in Mexic.
Have a great day everyone!
Johnny (from PocketPc)
June 18, 2012 at 06:03GM @Chip – Good to see you…Lets seee what Mark is coming up with?
I hope to reach my last TP 2730 in a few minutes from now and might close out then for a while to see what London Open will do and Mark s signal.?
GL to you
fxtrader
June 18, 2012 at 07:16Hey guys!
I am short on GU from 1.5720. Stops above 1.5750 area and I believe we are going to 1.56-1.555 area. Closed my longs on EU on Friday already, didnt want to risk them over the weekend but I guess I should;-) Anyway better safe than sorry.
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 07:41Good morning,
congrats @Johnny :)
Nothing major has changed for my mid-term setup but I want to play it a bit safer.
I still think that a move to 1.30 is possible/probable and I would like to see a rejection at that level to sell.
I do not see any reason for euro to print new lows without any big and NEW bad news coming out of Greece, Spain, Italy or Portugal.
So I’ll start the week by playing close to gap closing to get out of the current shorts in small profit and re-calibrate after that.
Have a great start to the week everyone!
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 08:11Ive gone Long again from @2655 back up to 2750. Lets see?
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 08:16Acccording to me no more sand needed, gap filled…
Up up and away
Zeeshan Anjum
June 18, 2012 at 08:42Grrrrrrrrrrrrr……. stopped out @ 622
went long again with SL 590
lets cccc
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 08:45Put your stop just below 585 @Xeee …My view :-)
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 08:47If possible…always try to hide your stops just below/above s/r…. 590 is sup level, so if your stop is just below you may have a free trampoline without even touching your stop :-)
Zeeshan Anjum
June 18, 2012 at 08:59@johnny
Ohhh yes sure my friend, i appreciate ur suggestion u huv always been helpful.
God Bless u
I moved the stop to 85
my long seems good now :)
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 09:02As long as staying above 2600 is nice. 2590 was an important level, breaching below there and we may shift gears :-)
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 08:51And of course now you may pull your stop up to dry land :-) Do as you pls…
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 09:02Gap closed with gravy – short setup with 5 trades on minimum positioning closed for combined 200 pips.
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 09:03Greek election official results: New Democracy 29.7%, 129 seats, Syriza 26.8%, 71 seats (50 bonus seats to the party with most votes)
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 09:04There will be a day coming soon that we all will be happy @Mary :-) Congrats to you too
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 09:12Let us make it today.
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 09:11Taking a small long, stop on sustain under 26, 1st target 2679
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 09:14You see that guy in the train with his cheeks all red and looking very uncomfortable ? @Mary
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 09:18Nah, I don’t take trains, I fly :P
But have you noticed that 90% of the time when we are calibrated we end up being wrong on short term setups?
When we are going in opposite directions at least one of us has a good day.
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 09:19O yeah we’re in the plane, thats right….Well anyway…That guy is me…Cant help…I always have that why I travel along with a beautiful companion the same direction and she is seated near to me….What to do abt that hey? :-)
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 09:25why=when !
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 09:21Yeah you re probably right, so let me get off then….
I feel the Big Dogs are not in play today….???? They re just in waiting mode it seems?
Have to go out for a while….see ya later..
GL
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 09:24Haah, that’s so unfair you traitor, you.
Have a good one Johnny :)
Johnny
June 18, 2012 at 09:27traitor maybe? But I would never desert you, now way ! Be seeing ya , and keep it up pls…
yasser
June 18, 2012 at 09:42GM all
@Johnny well done dear, i went long again for hope to see above 127 by today
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 10:22Full short term (day trading) long’s objectives: a)1.2679 b)1.270 c)1.273
Stop to BE when target A reached and IF sustained (if not then closing for profit near that level), stop to target A when B reached and sustained etc.
Kobe
June 18, 2012 at 10:53i took a small long here @2632 tp 2720 lets see if we bounce of this rising support.
Kobe
June 18, 2012 at 11:01http://www.imageupload.org/en/file/230125/18062012.jpg.html
2h chart nice rising support, bounced of it already once, i jumped in on pullback, lets see if it holds
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 11:03GM all
:D Closed my EU Ultra Long ETF @ the break of 2700 .
Staying short……
Mark my words…. Now that the Greek elections are pretty well sewn up with the Central Banks breathing easier all those hinted at concessions will be forgotten.
Monday, June 18, 2012 ⌚05:09 AM
Bundesbank: concessions on austerity should be kept small.
Monday, June 18, 2012 ⌚05:47 AM
German finance ministry says it rejects Euro bills proposal.
Monday, June 18, 2012 ⌚04:53 AM
German government says foreign minister’s comments on giving Greece more time is not the official position of the German government
Crisis, Response, Disappointment, Crisis……
What will they do about Spain and Portugal?
@ Johnny… Parity :D
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 11:14Simple…. print more money ergo inflation ergo devaluation of the euro… the future is pretty well written in stone even if those lunkheads called politicians don’t want to admit it
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 11:20I disagree Doc, I don’t think there is much of interesting news to wait from europe at the moment and we are more or less at a fair value, but I think we might see a door opening to a version of op twist this week from across the pond.
I would like to see at least a test of 1.28-1.285 prior to the bigger downtrend resumption.
Either way I personally will trade what I see on the charts not by what’s on the news as always.
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 11:25I agree maria…. short term I think we may rally but as always my goals are long term
gl
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 11:28I have no doubt the FEDS will eventually print more money…. the difference is the EU is now in the same boat and the battle will intensify.
Fundamental and technical is how I trade and I want both pushing in the same direction….
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 11:34Ah ok, must have misinterpreted your previous post. Then we agree as always :)
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 11:23Poor Greece… sold her soul to the bankers….. she’s pretty well bought and paid for now…
The problem with the EU is it’s a ome sided affair with Germany controlling the total export market and with a common currency countries like..Greece..Spain and Portugal can not protect themselves from one sided trade as they no longer control their own currency.
Albeit the drachma was no deal and Greece’s history is full of government destroying the wealth of their people but at least they had a choice.
Short term…. anybody’s guess
gl to all and Happy Father’s Day :D
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 13:03they are not alone !! the big problem is everywhere in this side of the sea and in the other way ::!!!! banks goverment (the way changing!!
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 11:43This has to make investors nervous…..
Monday, June 18, 2012 ⌚04:06 AM
Spanish 10-year bond yield rises to 7%.
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 11:50Gaps closed and EU has retreated below pre-gap price…. guess we’ll have to wait for the NY open to get the real picture
http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/305/eu6182012.jpg
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 13:29clear chart :: s in 2634 area is brroken (next s 2543 AREA° NOW WE HAVE 2580 AREA below we can see 2554 and 2530 !!!! tell us when y macd change
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 12:21lol…just a little humor
His name was Bubba, he was from Mississippi … And he needed a loan, So… He walked into a bank in New York City and asked for the loan Officer. He told the loan officer that he was going to Paris for an International redneck festival for two weeks and needed to borrow $5,000, and that he was not a depositor of the bank. The bank officer told him that the bank would need some form of security for the loan, so the Redneck handed over the keys to a new Ferrari. The car was parked on the street in front of the bank. The Redneck produced the title and everything checked out. The loan officer agreed to hold the car as collateral for the loan and apologized for having to charge 12% interest.
Later, the bank’s president and its officers all enjoyed a good laugh at the Redneck from the south for using a $250,000 Ferrari as collateral for a $5,000 loan. An employee of the bank then drove the Ferrari Into the bank’s private underground garage and parked it.
Two weeks later, the Redneck returned, repaid the $5,000 and the interest of 23.07. The loan officer said, “Sir, we are very happy to have had your business, and this transaction has worked out very nicely, but we are a little puzzled. While you were away, we checked you out on Dunn & Bradstreet and found that you are a distinguished alumni from Ole Miss University, a highly sophisticated investor and multi-millionaire with real estate and financial interests all over the world. Your investments include a large number of wind turbines around Sweetwater,
Texas. What puzzles us is, why would you bother to borrow $5,000?”
The good ‘ole boy replied, “Where else in New York City can I park my car for two weeks for only $23.07 and expect it to be there when I return?”
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 12:58hahahahahaha!!!!
Chip
June 18, 2012 at 12:56Good one doc1, bankers are not as smart as people think they are … I should know, because I worked in a bank for 6 years :-)
sahara
June 18, 2012 at 13:32playing ej(yen ) too have an eye if in 9930 area !!
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 14:21Monday, June 18, 2012 ⌚10:18 AM
FITCH: Greece’s liquidity position “fast deteriorating”.
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 14:23Looking to add to my short at pre-gap price of 2633 or a sustained break of 2580
fwiw
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 14:36Interesting read per Weiss Money Markets
——————————————————-
Long but revealing… Makes one wonder how long the ECB can withstand all the pressure from so many fronts…. eventually it’s print or die IMHO
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Martin and Larry here, with an urgent report on the next, explosive stage of the European crisis now unfolding before your eyes …
Yesterday’s election in Greece is just one chapter in this saga.
Regardless of its consequences, the European Union, the largest economy in the world, is now suffering under the weight of TWO traumatic crises striking simultaneously:
Trauma #1. Europe’s governments are in big trouble — debts out of control, tax revenues plunging, interest costs surging.
Trauma #2. Europe’s banks are under siege — drowning in massive losses, swamped with withdrawals, and lining up for bailout money that no government can afford.
Find it hard to believe that the largest economy and banking system in the world is collapsing even as you read these words? Then, read on for the evidence …
Trauma #1. Governments in Big Trouble
Debts out of Control
Tax Revenues Plunging
Interest Costs Surging
Some people seem to think the European Union’s sovereign debt problems are limited to just a few countries that have been in the news.
Others seem to assume that the debts are relatively static and unchanging.
But the hard data shows that, in reality …
Europe’s debt troubles are widespread, making almost every country vulnerable to the contagion now spreading across the continent.
Of course you already know about the countries in the headlines:
Greece with gross government debt of $315.8 billion … Spain with more than double that amount ($839.9 billion) … and Italy with debts that are SIX times larger than Greece’s (nearly $2 trillion)!
But what about the countries that have so far been viewed as “stronger”? Are they debt free?
Absolutely not!
France’s debts are almost as large as Italy’s — $1.8 trillion. And Germany’s debts are actually larger than Italy’s — nearly $2.1 trillion.
Plus, don’t forget others in the European Union, including Austria ($230.1 billion), Belgium ($374.3 billion), Finland ($101.1 billion), Ireland ($180.3 billion), the Netherlands ($427.6 billion), Portugal ($188.5 billion) and more!
Needless to say, not all countries are equal. Relatively speaking, some are stronger and others are weaker.
But here’s the key: They all belong to the same economic entity (the EU) and they’re all entangled in the same financial mess (the sovereign debt crisis).
That’s why it’s so important to note that TOTAL government debts owed by EU countries are now $8.6 trillion dollars — all based on the data from official sources compiled by Weiss Ratings.
Worse, despite all the sworn promises of austerity and all the solemn pacts to control deficits, the hard evidence also demonstrates that these debts are growing by leaps and bounds.
Official data shows that EU countries have added nearly $1 trillion in new debts just since the sovereign debt crisis began! And that doesn’t even include the massive new obligations of the EU institutions providing bailout funds!
And what’s most shocking is that nearly every effort to cut deficits has resulted in even larger deficits.
The main reason: Government cutbacks have slammed the economy. They have strangled the finances of the people. And they have bankrupted their businesses. So when all that happens, the end result is inevitable — they can’t pay their taxes!
Spain is a classic example. In fact, right now, the collapse in Spanish tax revenues is replicating the pattern in Greece, where fiscal revenues have fallen 4.8% in the past 12 months and Value Added Tax (VAT) revenues have plunged 14.6%.
The Daily Telegraph of London says “Spain is in the gravest danger since the end of the Franco dictatorship.”
Spain’s former premier Felipe Gonzales calls it “a total emergency, the worst crisis we have ever lived through.”
And just remember: Spain is NOT alone!
Surging Borrowing Costs
Spain’s borrowing costs have soared to 7%, widely considered the dividing line between stability and chaos.
Italy’s short-term borrowing costs have jumped wildly, as much as 164 basis points in a single day!
Other European interest rates are on a similar path.
This means that …
On top of collecting a lot less in revenues, they now have to pay a lot more for the money they desperately need to borrow.
But sinking government finances and financing is just one of the traumas striking Europe today. Also consider …
Trauma #2. Banks Under Siege
Drowning in Massive Losses
Swamped with Withdrawals
Lining up for Bailout Money
In addition to America’s banks and thrifts, Weiss Ratings now issues Financial Strength Ratings on all of Europe’s large banks.
And among the largest EU banks (with $200 billion or more in assets), there are now SIXTEEN institutions receiving a Weiss Rating of D+ or lower:
What does our rating of D+ mean?
According to a landmark study by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), it’s the equivalent to “speculative grade” (junk) on the rating scales of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch.
And also according to the GAO, Weiss was the only one that consistently warned ahead of time of future financial failures.
Indeed, if track record is any guide, our tougher grades — based strictly on the facts without any conflicts of interests — are consistently the most accurate.
Like Moody’s, S&P or Fitch, we look at each bank’s capital, earnings, bad loans, liquidity, and other factors.
But unlike the other rating agencies, we have never accepted — and WILL never accept — any compensation from the banks for their ratings.
Nor do we give big banks special credit based on the “too-big-to-fail” theory. We’ve said all along that, when push comes to shove, governments will have to save their own necks first and let failing banks fail.
Or, alternatively, they will have to print money and devalue the banks’ liabilities (YOUR deposits) in order to keep the banks alive.
Either way, depositors are at risk!
In Spain, we first gave Bankia its E+ rating (meaning “very weak”) three months ago — well before its massive losses were revealed, setting off the latest phase of Europe’s debt crisis.
But despite its $396.3 billion in assets, it’s not the largest Spanish bank in jeopardy:
Banco Santander is FOUR times larger with over $1.6 trillion in assets and merits a rating of D-, also deep into junk territory; while Spain’s BBVA bank, with nearly $775 billion in assets, gets a D.
And based on our metrics, Spain’s Caixabank (a $350 billion bank) is just as weak as Bankia with a rating of E+.
In Italy, Unicredit SpA gets an E+, despite its $1.2 trillion in assets; Intesa Sanpaolo merits a D-, and Banca Monte Dei gets an E.
What most people don’t seem to realize, though, is that most of the largest weak banks in the EU — and in the world — are headquartered in …
France! Crédit Agricole (with a massive $2.2 trillion in assets) is a candidate for failure with a rating of E and Societé Générale is not far behind with a D-. Plus, there are two other large French banks in jeopardy — Natixis and CIC.
But here’s the biggest — and most important — surprise of all:
Germany is NOT the safe haven most people think it is, especially when it comes to banking: In fact, the largest weak bank in the world is Deutsche Bank with $2.8 trillion in assets and meriting a D.
Commerzbank, with $857.6 billion in assets, is even weaker, getting an E rating.
All based on the same kind of objective, conflict-free analysis that helped us name nearly all the major failures of the last debt crisis well ahead of time! (See “The Only Ones Who Warned Ahead of Time.”)
Bottom line:
The total assets of just these 16 banks alone is $15 trillion, or about $1 trillion more than the total assets of ALL commercial and savings banks in the United States!
Who Saves Whom?
Late last year, the bonds of major European governments were sinking fast and Europe seemed on the brink of a meltdown.
So the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to come to the rescue with the aid of the largest banks.
The plan was simple:
The ECB hands the money over to the banks via special loans.
The banks hand the money over to sovereign governments by buying their bonds.
And everyone’s happy, right?
Wrong!
The plan has backfired: The government bonds have sunk anyhow. And the banks are stuck with even greater losses.
Now, a “new” old plan is hatching. Instead of banks helping to bail out their governments by buying their bonds … the idea is for governments to bail out their banks with money borrowed from the stronger governments of the European Union.
So one day they talk about banks saving the sovereigns. Next day, it’s the sovereigns savings the banks. They can’t seem to make up their minds as to who will save whom.
But …
Now the Public Is Beginning
To See Through This Charade!
They remember how many times the authorities have vowed that “the crisis is over.”
They know, first hand, how unemployment has gone through the roof.
They see the crisis feeding on itself.
So they are beginning to ask the real question of the day: Who sinks whom?
Will the sovereign debts sink the banks?
Will the banking crisis tear down the sovereign governments?
Or will they both go down in a spiraling cycle of bond market collapses and bank failures?
Our Suggestions …
1. Keep most of your liquid funds in cash, ready to be deployed on a moment’s notice, but as safe as can be right now. The best way: A short-term Treasury-only fund in the U.S., or equivalent.
2. Hold on to all long-term gold holdings. You do not want to let go of those. We feel gold could be headed to $5,000 an ounce over the next few years.
In the short term, however, we would not be surprised to see gold — and silver — move lower.
3. Consider prudent speculative positions to grow your wealth.
But no matter what you invest in — stocks, bonds or commodities — always be open to playing both the declines and the rises.
Even gold, silver and oil, despite major long-term bull markets, are bound to suffer further declines before turning higher.
And never forget this critical fact: As we’ve demonstrated here repeatedly, the U.S. government and U.S. financial institutions have made many of the same mistakes and are vulnerable to most of the same dangers.
gl to all
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 15:03If we’re going up it will be now…. if EU can’t regain support above 2580 then down we go..
IMO this is an attack on the Spanish bond markets and the Central banks are buoying the markets…. remains to be seen if they can keep propping it up
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 15:13Got stopped out of my long ideas for -30pips. Looking for the next setup, probably re-building shorts for mid-term. I’m still unbelievably bad with short term setups, better keep my fingers off of those.
John R
June 18, 2012 at 15:15Well…looks like we both have opposite (complementary) skills.
20 pips loss ain’t so bad
2550/70 is 200 MA and should be strong support for today if you like a small long opportunity.
FYI, I stayed away since yesterday. SO, it looks like the bear trend is here to stay. However, FOMC this Wednesday may give a Bullish shock. Just saying.
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 15:22oops…. thought you were johnny….. still in agreement though :D cheers
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 15:18@johnny….. for once we agree :D
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 15:20I’m thinking 2538/40 before we correct…. m/m’s love to suck in the shorts on breaks just below the 50 mark…… I’ve fallen for this so many time in the past I could buy a Ferrari with the losses lol
John R
June 18, 2012 at 15:24The lower the better if you want to Long.
John R
June 18, 2012 at 15:27I am stalking a Long for my quick 8 pippers at the end of this hour.
So, dip all you want, as I will enter automatically. A bounce off of 100MA was great for 8 pips…althought I didn’t take it.
200 MA at 2550s will be almost 100% guaranteed for 8 pips.
2538/40 great for Stops or reenter Longs there?
I doubt Fibre is going to to range more than 200 pips in any day.
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 15:25lol… back to the old Merkel….
Monday, June 18, 2012 ⌚11:13 AM
GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL: No leeway on Greece commitments.
I think Churchill once said ” The Germans are either at your feet or at your throat>
No disrespect meant towards Germans…. blame Churchill, he’s the one who said it :D
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 15:26With Spanish bond yields now at 7.14% the euro is going to have a tough time convincing investors to take on risk
John R
June 18, 2012 at 15:28You’re right. Greece was great news…..but Spanish Bonds are the ones causing this fall today.
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 15:29Guys, new thread is open, please switch.
And Doc do I look like Johnny to you?
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 15:32Not in the least Maria :D
How do I switch to new thread?
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 15:36Umm, go to the main page and open the last article that PipHut just posted.
Maria
June 18, 2012 at 15:37Doc are you having a blond afternoon? It’s ok, I understand ;)
Jim
June 18, 2012 at 15:31Greece voting on pro-bailout is akin to someone owing you tons of money and agreeing to remain in debt as long as you’ll lend them more…
The old saying goes ” If you owe someone $5000 you have the problem,,,if you owe someone $5,000,000 they have a problem”