Forex Signals – Bulls in a Bear’s World

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Recap: No trade taken yesterday to report on as the support break that would have triggered our short never occurred. Instead support held and actually “trampolined” the price to challenge the 1.22 area.

This is great news for any “bounce” traders as the pair did kick out a proximity alert just 10 minutes after our signal yesterday at 1.2063 – a 100 pip bounce!

Today’s Important News Events:

Date Time (UTC) Event Forecast Previous
Thu
Jul 26
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (JUN) 0.3% 1.3%
*To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar.

Trading Idea: We will look to get long on a resistance break (price is flirting with resistance right now) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips.

We are bearish on the pair but, there is no support for us to trade off of at the moment.

 


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  1. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 07:31 Reply

    Good Morning All. Thank you for your Recap/ Idea Mark. Today Trading range 2084 (S1) – 2234 (R3) ??

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 07:37 Reply

      Correction R3=2243 S1=2081

  2. Avatar of David Chitembo
    David Chitembo
    July 26, 2012 at 08:29 Reply

    iam long at 1.2125 and iam targeting 40 pips

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 08:34 Reply

      Ok Davidchitembo. Pivot Level = 2126

  3. Avatar of sahara
    sahara
    July 26, 2012 at 08:46 Reply

    gm @all

  4. Avatar of roggy
    roggy
    July 26, 2012 at 08:55 Reply

    Mark, tnx for the analysis and GM to all

    Price is unable to mike a higher high and breaking yesterday’s high ATM ..

    @appie: i have support @1.2113 then there is a monthly S2 at 50% retrace of yesterday’s rally @1.2106 and a weekly S1 near 61.8 retrace @1.2090

    currently short from 2142 and SL to BE+1 ..

    here’s the chart: http://clip2net.com/clip/m81565/1343292912-clip-48kb.png

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 09:44 Reply

      Ok thxs roggy. Looking to go long before us session.

    • Avatar of roggy
      roggy
      July 26, 2012 at 09:51 Reply

      I have my key resistance level @1.2165 .. but expecting a hit on 2113 before some rally .. let’s see ..

      @all: I’ll give you an interesting weekly chart on UsdChf .. http://clip2net.com/clip/m81565/1343242671-clip-43kb.png .. if this happen we can see some Eur bulls ..

      • Avatar of Appie P
        Appie P
        July 26, 2012 at 10:01 Reply

        I agree roggy and set long @2115 :-)

  5. Avatar of Tuan
    Tuan
    July 26, 2012 at 10:17 Reply

    My PO long@1.2126 has been triggered. EURUSD has been bounce up fast again… I thought Bulls can stand of Bears anymore :D.

  6. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 10:21 Reply

    close long @2150 TP2170 :-)

  7. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 10:23 Reply

    GM Tuan. Yes bounce up now ;-)

  8. Avatar of Tuan
    Tuan
    July 26, 2012 at 10:32 Reply

    TP1 1.2200 has been taken… Wow too fast moving.

  9. Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 10:34 Reply

    Outsider…. Hè hè hè…. Ha ha ha. My 1TP HIT @95 hè hè! Now up to 2240 and adobe hè hè, back to work…GL ALL AND THANKS MARK.

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 10:43 Reply

      Bullish Crab effect Johnny :-)

  10. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 10:35 Reply

    Yes Tuan iron shield :-)

  11. Avatar of David Chitembo
    David Chitembo
    July 26, 2012 at 10:35 Reply

    i am looking to take profit from long at about 1.2215

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 10:42 Reply

      You toke your profit?

  12. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 10:36 Reply

    Bullish Crab effect !!

  13. Avatar of Kobe
    Kobe
    July 26, 2012 at 10:38 Reply

    closed my long @2194 from 2104 a nice 90 pips in the pocket!

  14. Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 10:42 Reply

    100 pips in just an jours time…. Only at Piphut you get this haha … Boss is coming Quickly back to work now

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 10:50 Reply

      Yes Johnny the BIG Money you earn on piput ;-)

  15. Avatar of David Chitembo
    David Chitembo
    July 26, 2012 at 10:44 Reply

    closed my long with about 90 pips profit

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 10:47 Reply

      Congratulation Davidchitembo !! 90 pips profit in 2 Hours is a good one :-)

  16. Avatar of Tuan
    Tuan
    July 26, 2012 at 10:49 Reply

    Today is shinning on my pocket haha :D Cheers Up Guys!

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 10:53 Reply

      Hahaha Bulls are the winners these days Tuan :-)

      • Avatar of Tuan
        Tuan
        July 26, 2012 at 10:58 Reply

        Yes, now we just waiting for Bears come back to the Battle. We still in Bearish Trend.

  17. Avatar of sahara
    sahara
    July 26, 2012 at 10:55 Reply

    golden camels !!

  18. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 10:57 Reply

    Just step back home…..@Piphut – Thanks Mark for the great signal again…What we do without you!!!

  19. fxtrader
    July 26, 2012 at 10:57 Reply

    I missed out on EU but got mine on AU. Nice 80 pips and counting;-)

    • Avatar of sahara
      sahara
      July 26, 2012 at 10:58 Reply

      nice weldone @fx just rejected in S !! in like you

      • Avatar of sahara
        sahara
        July 26, 2012 at 11:00 Reply

        pips give it to market yesterday are back !!

  20. Avatar of Patrick
    Patrick
    July 26, 2012 at 10:57 Reply

    was quite busy. missed the north train pips congrat guys

  21. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:00 Reply

    2170 is now good support and if we breach 2240 then I will aim at 2280/85….But my final tp still aiming 2320 (as said before) :-) Lets see?

  22. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:02 Reply

    Few pips away from my 2TP (2240)….How long can the bulls go on ??? he he…

  23. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:05 Reply

    2240 alreaady HIT ! he he…this is going to fast for an ole man like me :-(

    Now 2280/85 and I think we may still see my final TP 2320 (As Ive mentioned days ago :-)

    Lets see

  24. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:08 Reply

    I need a Doctor !!! :-)

  25. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:10 Reply

    Its very hot today…not only the weather :-)

  26. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:10 Reply

    All at the sidelines ????

  27. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:11 Reply

    And 3TP HIT !!!! ha ha ,,…..Now lets see ?

    • Avatar of Johnny
      Johnny
      July 26, 2012 at 11:12 Reply

      22880/85 was my 3rd tp…..

  28. Avatar of Maria
    Maria
    July 26, 2012 at 11:13 Reply

    EURUSD stopping myself manually out of the short set, flat and back to observation mode.

    • Avatar of Maria
      Maria
      July 26, 2012 at 11:22 Reply

      Combined loss across positions around 300 pips.

      • Avatar of Johnny
        Johnny
        July 26, 2012 at 11:30 Reply

        @Maria – What can I say…Feel with you…..and know how it feels too (been there)
        Just open a bottle tonight and have a good drink…I do that :-)

        Together, (in here at piphut) we gonna make that 300 minus into 300 plus, be assured ! TC

  29. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:15 Reply

    Even gets more hot all of a sudden….Dont know why….? :-)

  30. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 11:15 Reply

    no johnny no sideline close long @2250 TP=2270

  31. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:16 Reply

    @Appie – Remember ??? 2320 !!!!! he he..If thats would fall, then 4210 is the end…

    ut think 2320 would be a good level to go Short ? Lets see

    I am aiming my final tp 2320 now…But….Risky !!!

    • Avatar of Johnny
      Johnny
      July 26, 2012 at 11:17 Reply

      error = 2410 insted of 4210 !!

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 11:18 Reply

      2320 will be fine to go short :-)

  32. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 11:23 Reply

    170 pips in about one hour is a large movement.

  33. doc1
    July 26, 2012 at 11:35 Reply

    Gm all

    Alot of $$$ gets lost in trying to short or long these sudden moves……

    Best to wait and see whether it’s a continuation or exhaustion….. my bet is exhaustion with more pushes into maybe a short term short squeeze…

    If EU can hold 2265 then break above 2285 we’ll see more upside

    One things for sure… the bulls are rallying so it’s gonna be a battle

    Crises (then the solution) Response ( from investors)…Disappointment ( the EU problem is far from solved) then back to Crises

    JMO

  34. doc1
    July 26, 2012 at 11:37 Reply

    I find it hard to believe that Draghi’s pep talk will push EU into a reversal

  35. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 11:41 Reply

    There s an End to everything @Doc……Whatever, you name it…..Lets see :-)

    @All I just as well may close out as there s enough now for an icecream and a cold beer….its very hot here at the moment…..But my feeling is we may see 2320 before the drop will start?
    Lets see….just giving it a few more minutes. @60 is now support…

    Goodday to you All….

    • Avatar of Jim
      Jim
      July 26, 2012 at 12:01 Reply

      lol… sure …. do you seriously think a pep talk from Draghi has even the slightest chance to push the euro into a reversal?

      Hope that feeling doesn’t turn into a stomach ache for ya ..
      GL

  36. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 11:43 Reply

    @doc1 markets are politic driven :-)

  37. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 11:45 Reply

    Never underestimate a bullish crab.

  38. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 11:49 Reply

    Comment left on:
    July 24, 2012 at 22:04
    doc1 says:

    Looking @ the monthly chart and it just smells like a correction is overdue…..

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/841/eumonth724.jpg/

    Even though the trend is still clearly down on the historic chart it is clear that EU is finding support on the MA’s which are hinting at a bottom….

    With the bets on that the FEDS will ease before September ( old news does not move markets rumours do) I am becoming more and more biased to a stronger correction before we head down to 118 or lower…..

    I am watching for the big exhaustion move before closing all my open positions and begin to build a long position

    FWIW

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 11:51 Reply

      doc1 you are right that we will go down. Only what is the political decision? After Olympics?

      • Avatar of Jim
        Jim
        July 26, 2012 at 11:55 Reply

        @appie….

        Trying to figure out politics is like trying to bag smoke….

        Real fundamentals are based on truth …undeniable truths…..

        Our trading opportunities lie in not trying to catch these sporadic movements but in waiting for the truths to become evident again and only then jump on board

        jmo

  39. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 11:50 Reply

    Glad I followed my own advice :)

  40. Avatar of Grace
    Grace
    July 26, 2012 at 11:52 Reply

    wow! Johnny needs to call for a party. really miss out. just getting in for few pips.

  41. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 12:05 Reply

    Long @ 2265 sl open

  42. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 12:14 Reply

    hi sahara… hope your day’s going well… trading and otherwise :)

    • Avatar of sahara
      sahara
      July 26, 2012 at 12:20 Reply

      only golding (was long with aud from S closed

      • Avatar of sahara
        sahara
        July 26, 2012 at 12:20 Reply

        trying to bke 1620 !!

  43. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 12:17 Reply

    Thursday, July 26, 2012 ⌚08:08 AM
    Spanish 10-year yield drops below 7% for first time since June 19 after Draghi pledges action.

  44. Chip
    July 26, 2012 at 12:22 Reply

    Hi @all!
    I was out playing tennis for 3 hours and I missed the big rally, and at this level (1.2260) I prefer to watch and learn.
    Congrats to all of you who made nice profits today!

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 12:33 Reply

      Thxs Chip. Glad to see you here.

  45. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 12:28 Reply

    about two minutes: US Unemployment Claims

  46. Chip
    July 26, 2012 at 12:32 Reply

    353K – better than expected

  47. buzzbart
    July 26, 2012 at 12:32 Reply

    Hello
    Would somebody knows where it goes?
    @ 2410 UP and DOWN?? (@ 2145)? …

    Thank you

    Google Traduction

  48. Avatar of Maria
    Maria
    July 26, 2012 at 12:34 Reply

    Nah don’t worry Johnny, still a green month, just annoyed that I didn’t follow my own advise on a bigger pullback at 1.2050 which is what I have the feeling is developing (might obviously be wrong again though).
    Either way felt safer to pull out before the full set activates rather than going into rescue on a max set later on for this set.

  49. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 12:49 Reply

    short @2310 let see.

  50. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 12:51 Reply

    Good to see that @Maria….I know you’re tough enough :-)

    Anyway, was away from my PC…..And I see my final TP is nearing…..2320!

    The push down comes in at 2326….And I already saw an ugly bear pattern around the corner on my chart….SO, I think I may go Short from the same level???? Lets see?

    Soon gotta go outside….
    Wishing all a pleasant day ahead…

  51. Chip
    July 26, 2012 at 12:52 Reply

    You’re a brave man @appie, and I think you’re right … but I don’t have the balls to follow you on this one just yet. If this hour closes below 1.2300 I’m with you.

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 13:09 Reply

      close @2292 (18 pips) Go long @2243 (R3)

  52. Avatar of sahara
    sahara
    July 26, 2012 at 12:56 Reply

    a few $ coming in gold (a new long 612!! if 614 broken wll broke 1620

  53. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 12:58 Reply

    still long from 2265…..

    • Chip
      July 26, 2012 at 13:02 Reply

      I had a long @1.2261 and I set the sl too tight @1.2254 and it just touched my sl before going up, so I’m on the sidelines for now (my mistake).

  54. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:02 Reply

    way too much strength to even consider a short position today… with bets on that the FEDS will ease before Sept and good news out of the EU coupled with extremely oversold conditions the squeeze is just beginning imo

    however… I don’t trade my feelings only what I see …so I will exit my long accordingly… for now @b/e

  55. Chip
    July 26, 2012 at 13:09 Reply

    My feeling is that this tiny red hourly candle may be a bear trap … just saying.

  56. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 13:10 Reply

    @Appie, I think you may have made the right move Appie :-) We touched 2315 so far…

    The Crab upswing I mentioned days ago in here could well be mistaken by a few pips :-) I am still waiting 2320 anyway for now….lets see?

    • Avatar of Jim
      Jim
      July 26, 2012 at 13:18 Reply

      [|B?D

      based on what??

  57. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 13:13 Reply

    For your info: we made a 200+ UP movement last hours.

    • Chip
      July 26, 2012 at 13:22 Reply

      Nice round number … and the EU is stronger for 2 reasons:
      - ECB officials declarations (Novotny and Draghi)
      - UK GDP drop – most of UK’s trade is with the EU so if the GDP is weaker the Euro is stronger.
      Anyway, I don’t think this artificial strenght of the Euro will last for long, because the main issues haven’t been solved and I don’t think there is a solution to the sovereign debt problem (I hate the word crisis), so for those of you who trade mid to long term I think now would be a good time to short the EU.
      @appie – I like your trading style :-)

  58. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 13:14 Reply

    Only a sustain breach of 2320 may bring 2410 insight @Appie (Remember? :-))

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 13:19 Reply

      yes that was the reason that I closed @2292 :-)

  59. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 13:18 Reply

    Busy outside for some time…see ya later…

  60. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:22 Reply

    This consolidation pattern hints at more upside
    We had a big move up with very little retrace…..
    more than likely we will drift up and down until the profit taking is over or news comes out…good or bad that will push up or down….

    The market is just absorbing right now..

    As of right now the market is rallying…… fight it or go with the flow

    still long
    fwiw

    • Avatar of sahara
      sahara
      July 26, 2012 at 13:27 Reply

      2H candle said yes @Doc but 4H behind not yet (with daily is more clear for a technical

  61. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:28 Reply

    It’s a strange phenomenon with traders…. most people will gravitate to positions opposite what they see….

    The reason for this is…

    In a down market 90% of retail traders are contrarian and fight the trend all the way to the bottom… after sustaining losses they eventually turn their bias in the direction they have been fighting but…. it’s generally right at the bottom…..so…..
    now they fight it all the way to the top and the cycle goes on and on….

    Commercial and Institutional traders know this and capitalize on the fears…..

    Trade what ya see not what ya think…..

    fwiw :)

    • Avatar of sahara
      sahara
      July 26, 2012 at 13:37 Reply

      Yes @doc !! we are trading without “guns” !! banks know all orders .. brokers working against us ..traders like us “travelling” “eyes closed”… but how to do in this big field !! since am here i usually said when am green and when am red but sometimes or always i trad to trad and that s why i loose what i win in a lot of trads ..take care all

  62. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:30 Reply

    Basically if the horse is running in a known direction then bet on that direction… the odds are much better…. just keep sl’s tighter in the early stages

  63. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:31 Reply

    If the rally is strong enough pullbacks will be minimal

  64. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:33 Reply

    for example… we rallied to 2317… 200 pips with less than a 30 pip pullback…. not hard to figure where the odds are

  65. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:35 Reply

    In other words…. going short now is like juggling knives… why would the market turn and run back down now? For what fundamental reason or even technical for that matter?

    JMHO and FWIW

  66. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:36 Reply

    This is the response phase to the crises… to short we need to see disappointment not good news

    • Avatar of sahara
      sahara
      July 26, 2012 at 13:43 Reply

      yes @doc for me i beleive in all of this but i do “different way” perhaps the day i will do as i understand ;my way in trading will change !! the second problem is the psy ; now i accept when i loose and i know if i have to cut a position (red or green) or not but i need much time to be ” a usual way”

  67. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:40 Reply

    As a final note to this rant…..

    The pullbacks now are on short term profit taking and nervous nellies….

    I was short minded all the way from 3250 and closed all my positions almost at the bottom based on

    1. extremely oversold conditions
    2. Fundamental changes..

    I’ll re-short when the disappointment sets in as I am still holding that the euro will go to parity with the $

    Watching for rumours building on another ECB rate cut and QE3 changes

  68. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 13:41 Reply

    EOS and have a great day trading….

  69. Avatar of John R
    John R
    July 26, 2012 at 14:10 Reply

    Hello everyone. Yes I saw the bulls….but was waiting for USA’s (re)action.

    Looks like great places to SHORT at these mighty heights. Layering shorts from 2350 to 2450. But I will be p[lacing longs on USDCHF instead as they are 30% cheaper and gives positive swap for me.

    This healthy retracement now can give the BEAR BOMB to 1.1800 another reason.

    My reasoning is that today’s EURophia is just about Draghi’s comments. Greece and Italy are still going drop the bomb day after day, year after year.

    • Avatar of John R
      John R
      July 26, 2012 at 14:26 Reply

      “EUR/USD plucks some low-hanging fruit
      from ForexLive by Jamie Coleman
      EUR/USD has triggered stops above 1.2325, reaching 1.2330 thus far. Another batch lie above the 1.2335 level.

      More resistance is seen around 1.2365 where the 50% retracement of the 1.2693/1.2040 decline comes into play as well as chart resistance dating back to July 5.”

      In view of this, I think I will start placing my swissy longs when EURUSD hits 2365.

  70. Avatar of sahara
    sahara
    July 26, 2012 at 14:12 Reply

    1620 golden camel !!!!Comment left on:
    July 26, 2012 at 12:20
    saharaview says:

    only golding (was long with aud from S closed
    Flag

    Reply
    #
    Comment left on:
    July 26, 2012 at 12:20
    saharaview says:

    trying to bke 1620 !!

  71. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 14:14 Reply

    short @2325

  72. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 14:23 Reply

    5TP HIT! 2320…Thank you very much!!! And Shorting from same level…..(@Appie Nice small Bearish Crab showed up just below 2330 . Dont know if strong enough but I stick to my plan :-))
    GL

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 14:29 Reply

      Really Well Done !!! Johnny. Ha Ha Ha Market is driven by Johnny :-)

    • Avatar of Kobe
      Kobe
      July 26, 2012 at 15:04 Reply

      BRAVO!!

  73. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 14:27 Reply

    03 – 96 and 87 the push ups….

    I have to go out again, just came in for short while….See ya later…

  74. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 14:30 Reply

    @Appie – And if a recall myself (my memory let me down sometimes :-)) I did mention that I would go Short @2320 with final TP @ 2150 :-) Am I right ?

    Now out….

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 14:34 Reply

      @Johnny I understood.

  75. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 16:01 Reply

    EURUSD H1 Bearish Engulfing Pattern

  76. Avatar of Jim
    Jim
    July 26, 2012 at 16:34 Reply

    I get the feeling most of you are short term traders only…

    • Avatar of Maria
      Maria
      July 26, 2012 at 16:37 Reply

      Yes, I’m getting the same feeling.

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 16:45 Reply

      The ideas of Mark are usefull for daytraders :-)

    • Avatar of John R
      John R
      July 26, 2012 at 18:07 Reply

      haha. I once was, but I am now SAVED! haha

      I’m waiting to join the big boys to short at higher levels. Intra-day is just noise.

  77. Avatar of yasser
    yasser
    July 26, 2012 at 16:52 Reply

    hi All

    i hope all our family doing well, it seems that some have green day and some red day, however this as all know FX market.

    i have closed all my long positions and start for long term short positions from 2330 till 24 area

    below my broker report since morning but i didn’t get chance to login

    EURUSD was able to recover marginally to 1.2171on ECB Nowotny comments. The emboldened bulls were able to fill in of the gap from Mondays open (taking out our short term cap at 1.2140) . In spite of yesterdays bullish correction, we still feel that the downside is vulnerable due to the gloomy news emulating from Europe and solid downtrend resistance at 1.2184 capping demand. Our target of 1.2000 remains undamaged.

    Should bullish momentum continue to fade, the first levels of support can be found at 1.2046 (25th July low), 1.2000 (psychological support) then 1.18670 (7th June low), and 1.1772 (30th Dec 05’ low).

    The break of 1.2184 ( downtrend channel), would trigger a move to1.2336 (10th & 19th July highs),. The not much supply till 1.2439 (multiple support and resistance in June), 1.2685 (June 19th high & June 20th low), 1.2754 (June 20thhigh), 1.2826 (22ndMay high), 1.2906 (support turned resistance), 1.3066 (8th May high), 1.3081 (gap high), 1.3122 (2nd May low), then 1.3179 (7th May pivot high).

    Regards,

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 17:09 Reply

      Yasser thxs for sharing.

      • Avatar of yasser
        yasser
        July 26, 2012 at 17:18 Reply

        Hi Apple how are you doing you welcome at any time

        • Avatar of Appie P
          Appie P
          July 26, 2012 at 17:26 Reply

          Thxs Yasser. Doing well today. Profitable trades.

  78. Avatar of yasser
    yasser
    July 26, 2012 at 16:55 Reply

    @ Sahara & Johnny well done it was good day

    @Maria good luck to you with new entry as i will be with you this time with shorting EU

  79. Avatar of yasser
    yasser
    July 26, 2012 at 16:57 Reply

    @ Doc thank you very much for you analyses, comments , it was helpful as usual
    good luck to you dear

  80. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 17:17 Reply

    Bloomberg TV: short the euro on strength

  81. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 18:02 Reply

    Just back home, preparing some food…

    @Doc – Is something wrong Doc? In between your lines today it looks to me you’re having a bitter taste about something (Might be wrong?)

    As @Appie already said, ,ost in here are Day traders (Thats why Mark brings out a new signal every day).
    But as for me…I had this trade plan already in my mind from the moment the Bullish Crab pattern showed up (Last Friday). So I dont think you can call that day-trading really (Perhaps Week-Trading :-))
    I dont wanna grab all my postings back from the past few days, but below you can find a few of them.
    I do remember that, when I called (from the lows we have made so far) we were heading back up, many were then still in their Shorts looking for 1,20 and below.
    With this posting I certainly do not have any meaning whatsoever and least of all putting my collars up (On the contrary!) But I think I dont have to tell you that FX is just not a one way stream. And about the News…well to be frank, most of it I just take with a little bit of salt (As we say overhere), The Media are mostly calling evil over it all. Trust me….Europe will survive as long as Germany exist! I am however not to sure about the future of the US :-)
    GL to you and again, no special meaning here….!

    Comment left on:
    July 19, 2012 at 18:26
    johnny says:

    @Piphut – Thanks for the intraday update Mark.
    I certainly dont wanna ignore your bearish view and know better (That you’re mostly right :-)) But for the time being I keep my Long in (If you dont mind) and wait for the re-test of the earlier made highs and will see what happens there?
    Recently we have made higher lows and it could be that there is a nice Bullish correction going on and further coming up.
    Germany approved the Spanish bailouts and keeping my one eye on the Gold chart and the S&P 500 and have a feeling we soon will touch 2300 again. (May regret it all later on? :-))
    Have a good night ahead.

    Comment left on:
    July 19, 2012 at 19:35
    johnny says:

    I will soon be going off to sleep.
    I have a Push Down @ 2320 which I will set as 1TP for now on my running Long. This may be touched during asian hours? SL is @2210 (for now).
    Then I will place a Buy order @2340 with 1TP2360, 2TP2390 and 3TP2410.
    And we will see it all by tomorrow
    GN All

    Comment left on:
    July 19, 2012 at 20:02
    johnny says:

    Ok guys, gonna leave you (Shall I also place a Sell order around 2320/30??? Just cant ignore our master can I??? Let me see…..????)
    Have a good night and maybe seeing you tomorrow early for a little while….But dont think I have time to be trading whole day tomorrow. Very busy Grrrrrr :-(
    TC & GL

  82. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 18:38 Reply

    Yes Johnny mostly trading on the contrary makes the pips (feeling much adrenaline). Indeed wrong/fake information in the media is the big enemy for investors. It puts investors on the wrong foot.

    • Avatar of Johnny
      Johnny
      July 26, 2012 at 18:42 Reply

      Hi there @Appie. Lets see if it willing to come down a but. As I mentioned here above Im short from 2320 and aiming 2150 as final tp.
      But I would be careful around 2220 though! (If we will get there?) cause I am expecting a bounce up from there back to 2300/20 (And maybe higher?) from there! So I have just set my 1st TP at 2220 :-) Lets see.

      Having dinner…see ya later…

  83. Avatar of Johnny
    Johnny
    July 26, 2012 at 18:43 Reply

    Error = A but = A bit !

  84. Avatar of Maria
    Maria
    July 26, 2012 at 18:44 Reply

    Well either way in swing trading, whatever timeframe you trade, you will at some point be caught on the wrong side when the wind turns.

    I personally find it’s just important in the end of the day to make more money than what you lost, so if the swing has provided couple thousand good points then taking couple hundred on a turn does not kill anyone.

    I’m still unsure about if we have actually turned or if we will need one more lower test before, but a test of higher range downtrend 1.255-1.285 will be required at some point before further decline in my eyes. I’ll observe until I see some further confirmation/have more time for the market before re-entering either side.

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 19:07 Reply

      Maria 1.255-1.285 coming weeks (summer flows)?

  85. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 18:52 Reply

    Bon appetit Johnny. Have my short @2325 TP=2253. Will see to change TP.

  86. BeMoreWild
    July 26, 2012 at 19:34 Reply

    Strongly agree with Maria…as Olympics have just started GBP will be a bit strong against dollar for coming weeks we can see miracles….as safe trading is wished n advised:)

    JoooOooooHny good to c u:) now atleast u cant say that u dont get praise:) this is right time for mid term shorts till 2160…

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 19:54 Reply

      History repeat as in 2008 Olympics?

  87. Avatar of Maria
    Maria
    July 26, 2012 at 20:24 Reply

    Guys, I don’t predict the price, I just trade whatever comes and as said I need confirmation that this turn is starting, we don’t have that yet. I also don’t predict in what timeframe things are moving, just take whatever comes.

    • Avatar of Appie P
      Appie P
      July 26, 2012 at 20:31 Reply

      Ok Maria you have no plan now.

  88. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 26, 2012 at 21:09 Reply

    Tomorrow BIG party (birthday) no full trading. Wish everyone Good Dreams. TC GN GL

    • Chip
      July 26, 2012 at 21:11 Reply

      Happy birthday @appie, enjoy your party!

      • Avatar of Appie P
        Appie P
        July 26, 2012 at 21:16 Reply

        Thank you @Chip, will really enjoy.

  89. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 27, 2012 at 06:42 Reply

    GM All. I expect higher prices for Gold / Silver in August. Supporting E/U?

  90. Avatar of Appie P
    Appie P
    July 27, 2012 at 07:03 Reply

    Thank you @Sahara. Funny HaHaHa Enjoy it :-)

  91. Chip
    July 27, 2012 at 07:21 Reply

    Good morning @all!
    A technical analysis I have watched today said it would be a good idea to place a buy limit @1.2340 with target @1.2400 area, the logic behind this being that if we reach 1.2340 it means 1.2320 resistance is broken and we should go further North.
    It’s just an idea and honestly I took it with a grain of salt, because at 14:30 CET we’ll have the US GDP release and if we go below 1.5% estimate I think the market will build more hopes about QE3 but if we have a reading above 2% (unlikely but still possible) QE3 hopes will vanish and the big downtrend may resume …
    I wish you all a great friday!

  92. Avatar of maher17
    maher17
    July 27, 2012 at 07:49 Reply

    8:30am (NY Time) US Prelim GDP q/q
    Forecast 1.5% Previous 1.9% (Final Q1 GDP)
    DEVIATION: 0.2% (BUY USD/JPY 1.7% / buy NZD/ USD 1.3%)

    The Trade Plan
    We are looking for a deviation between 0.2% ~ 0.3% from the forecasted figure of 1.5%. Therefore if we get a 1.7% on the second quarter (Q2) 2012 GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD. However, if we get a 1.3% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.

    I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pair above as it is based on my strength meter by pairing up the best currencies in the event of a better/worse news… or you can just use the default pairs for this news: USDJPY or EURUSD

    We’ll be trading this release using an after-news retracement method.

    • Chip
      July 27, 2012 at 08:04 Reply

      Thanks for your insight @maher17!

  93. Avatar of maher17
    maher17
    July 27, 2012 at 07:52 Reply

    you welcome all




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