Forex Signals – EURUSD Exciting Week!
Site Update: We rolled out a number of behind-the-scene updates this weekend to lay the groundwork for the exciting features we’ll be rolling out this week. Most of the feature enhancements focus along some drastic improvements of CandlePRO, including the ability to see performance charts for any candlestick pattern along with easy to understand TP / SL / Entry information to make trading candlesticks easier than ever:
“New Performance Charts and layout for CandlePRO backtesting makes it drop dead simple to follow your own candlestick strategy.”
There are quite a few new features that will make trading easier than ever for PRO members, some of which can be read about here. We will be releasing the beta version to PRO members Wednesday, along with some training materials and a video tutorial toward the end of the week. Stay tuned!
Recap: No trades taken last Friday to report on.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: The pair is in a very bearish trend at the moment, with lower lows and lower highs for the past several weeks. There is a fairly solid falling trend resistance at the moment, however, where we will look to get long off of a resistance break with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips.
The trade is on the aggressive side due to the bearish trend but given the oversold nature of the hourlies and the bearish gap we believe the long will provide enough of a *pop* for the trade. We will look to move our SL early and often.
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sahara
July 23, 2012 at 08:23Gm @Mark thank you for this new signal and this ‘big gift in Pro”
BeMoreWild
July 23, 2012 at 09:00GM all and Thank You Mark….
Prince Adewunmi
July 23, 2012 at 09:04holla, to all pip hut family, i had place my pending order around 1.2140, let see what will happen for that weekend gap.
Kobe
July 23, 2012 at 09:24Hi all, i’m back from a very nice holiday in Corsica! ready to get some pips again. Thanks Mark for the news, i’m exited!
Good trading day everyone, i took a long on eu @ 1.2104 tp 1.2170 to close the gap. i follow mark on the bullish pop today.
good trading to all!
Appie P
July 23, 2012 at 09:30Good Morning all, @kobe glad to hear that your holiday was good. Wish you a strong start :-) my start today long e/u @2096 sl2080.
Teddy
July 23, 2012 at 09:32Hi all and thanks Mark for the signal.
GL every one.
sahara
July 23, 2012 at 09:35welcomeback@kobe hope your holiday in corsica was nice !!! a nice area !!
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 10:41Gm all
With Spanish bond yields now at 7.4% coupled with Spain’s reporting that tax receipts show the deficit target to be at risk is going to make it tough for the euro to make any significant corrections IMO
Spanish GDP is also lower by .4% and Italian bonds are nearing the 7% mark….
Also hearing rumours that the IMF is refusing to participate in any more Greece bailouts…. just rumours though
You’ll need a quick finger and nerves of steel to catch any longs and again this is JMHO and fwiw
Still long term short and waiting to perhaps 2150 to take a short term short position. I’ll also take a short term position on a sustained break below 2100
GL
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 10:47We are at important levels right now as shown by the monthly chart…. if EU can not find support above the 2120 line then 1800 is in the sights…
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/259/eumonth723.jpg/
sahara
July 23, 2012 at 10:49yes @doc and gm !! have an eye in weekly (daily and 8 h !!!
smile
July 23, 2012 at 10:49Hi again at all. Thanks Mark
Chip
July 23, 2012 at 11:57Hello everyone,
I’m flat for now. I’m waiting to see 4 consecutive hours below 1.2100 to go short with target at 1.1800.
I will pass the long “opportunity” because I don’t believe in it as the gap hasn’t been filled yet.
I wish you all a profitable week!
David Chitembo
July 23, 2012 at 12:01am short at 1.2115
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 12:31This is where patience plays a big part of trading…. it’s hard to sit on one’s hands and watch the trade go in the direction you suspected …. but……in the end patience pays off….IMO..it is not advisable to go short the euro until the 2100 level has been broken for at least a 1 hr candle….. I will trade off the 2120 level for short term profit or below the 2100 level where I will take a short term and a long term position fwiw… until then I am sitting on my hands
[|B?D
David Chitembo
July 23, 2012 at 12:45it is a high probability scalp.
Iam ready to take take loss if the situation turns against me.
a pip here , a pip there , and very soon i will be talking real pips.
Lol
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 12:39As I see it fwiw
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/860/eumon2.jpg/
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 12:45Taking a short on this bounce…… sl open
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 12:49the 1 m is cycling up so patiently waiting… if anyone is interested I’ll post when I go short fwiw
David Chitembo
July 23, 2012 at 12:51iam interested
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 12:58Here’s what I’m watching and once again fwiw….
I have already taken a long term position but I am waiting for a short term opportunity on the 1 m…..
IMO EU has broken an important line and is heading south but I want to maximize my profits by fine tuning my entry as best I can
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/705/eu1m723.jpg/
David Chitembo
July 23, 2012 at 13:05Thank you for the chart
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 13:08Friday you did not take any trades, but your total for the month was 150 and today was 230. What Trades di dyou enter?
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 13:10short @83 fwiw
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 13:53Monday, July 23, 2012 ⌚09:50 AM
Greek 2023 bonds extend drop; price falls to 16.34% of face value while yield climbs 185 bps to 27.44%.
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 13:54How would you like to be holding these ughhh
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 13:55For every dollar invested you get back 16 cents……
The bottom will drop out when the members of the boys club signal all clear
Appie P
July 23, 2012 at 13:59Long E/U @2076 SL2047 TP2126 (today close longs E/U @ 2128 (31 pips) and 2138 (18 pips).
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 14:02GL
Appie P
July 23, 2012 at 14:08Thxs @doc1 you also successful trades
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 14:01EUR consumer confidence -22 vs -20 expected… low impact news …but…. one more straw
John R
July 23, 2012 at 14:16Alright. Well…the bears jumped the gun again, and failed to give a healthy rally to fade.
There was even a gap that was partially (not perfectly) filled.
1.2066 is the low for today. I think the congestion area of 1.2050 may or may not be fulfilled already. Watch out for short coverings as the bear party may be exhausted for now.
I’m just saying because of these reasons:
1) No proper retracement for weeks will build up a violent pullback
2) Olympic balm?
3) Such terrible news over the weekend and still no test of 1.2000?
Appie P
July 23, 2012 at 15:07Close Long E/U @2076 SL2047 TP2126 … 50 pips profit :-)
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 15:13Nice call and nice trade @ appie
Scalping seems to be working the best in this environment… have to be quick to take profits and losses….
Traded very small today and still had good results… done though…
Here’s my days results
11916882 6444010147 EUR/USD 100 B 1.21215 1.21247 3.2 32.00 0.00 7/23/2012 11:03 7/23/2012 11:06
11916709 6444010147 EUR/USD 100 S 1.21158 1.21143 1.5 15.00 0.00 7/23/2012 10:51 7/23/2012 10:52
11915674 6444010147 EUR/USD 100 S 1.20878 1.20855 2.3 23.00 0.00 7/23/2012 09:32 7/23/2012 09:35
11915364 6444010147 EUR/USD 100 S 1.20821 1.20790 3.1 31.00 0.00 7/23/2012 09:09 7/23/2012 09:14
11914325 6444010147 EUR/USD 100 S 1.21002 1.20734 26.8 268.00 0.00 7/23/2012 08:21 7/23/2012 08:44
11913908 6444010147 EUR/USD 50 S 1.21162 1.21072 9 45.00 0.00 7/23/2012 07:50 7/23/2012 08:10
11910615 6444010147 EUR/USD 100 S 1.21129 1.21134 -0.5 -5.00 0.00 7/22/2012 22:59 7/22/2012 23:40
11910616 6444010147 EUR/JPY 50 S 94.695 94.680 1.5 9.60 0.00 7/22/2012 22:59 7/22/2012 23:40
11910162 6444010147 EUR/USD 100 S 1.21287 1.21255 3.2 32.00 0.00 7/22/2012 22:04 7/22/2012 22:16
11910165 6444010147 EUR/JPY 50 S 94.974 94.921 5.3 33.85 0.00 7/22/2012 22:04 7/22/2012 22:16
Total 55.4 $484.45
fwiw and until next time
TC and GL trading all…
John R
July 23, 2012 at 17:55Good job @doc1 and @appie
I wish I had time to scalp, but since I can’t…will have to wait out for the longer term setups.
I’m also kinda leary on scalping Mondays due to bad experiences in the past. But tomorrow, I await to start scalping while waiting for longer term setups.
Jim
July 23, 2012 at 15:17@johnr
I agree…. EU his forming it’s favorite corrective ratchet formation so we may see a deeper correction……
hard to tell right now but if it looks like it is solidifying I will close 50% of my long term short positions
Appie P
July 23, 2012 at 15:18@doc1 green pip raining :-)
Well done !!
BeMoreWild
July 23, 2012 at 15:19JohnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYyyyyy………………
Tuan
July 23, 2012 at 16:10Hi guys, better waiting for higher to place a short.
Maria
July 23, 2012 at 17:08EURUSD short set: nothing triggered today, no changes, flat.
Comment left on:
July 22, 2012 at 19:51
maria says:
Good evening all, I did make it to my hotel for early market open – only to see that I should have left my short set in action.
Anyway, new week – new plan.
New short set will be activated after full market open: 1st entry at gap close 1.2155, 2nd 1.2200. Full mid-term positioning 30 trades up to 1.2450, over 1.25 invalidates the plan. All trades variable size, higher bigger, as always.
Objective open to start with.
Caution: I do not recommend this trading plan to newer traders since it is not that straightforward to follow and I will be taking partial profit at S/R lines because we are at risky levels.
Have a great week everyone and warm greetings from Poland.
Tuan
July 23, 2012 at 18:47I think 1.2200 is better for place a new short but good plan Maria
Appie P
July 23, 2012 at 19:38Maria what is the criteria for your new short entries? Gaps closes, Pivot (2193), round prices and S/R’s? Have a good stay in Poland.
Maria
July 23, 2012 at 23:19Hi Appie, it’s always roughly S/R lines, trying to get as close as possible to them, but also keeping max 50 pips between them to be able to keep as small as possible of a distance to the breakeven point. Additionally controlling this with the variable position size with the trade 2 being twice as big in size as trade 1.
And thanks for the wishes :)
Appie P
July 24, 2012 at 06:01Thxs for explaining. I made a spreadsheet for your settings plan with rounded prices. If you like I send it to you.
Shorts Levels Size Break even
2250 2250 1 2250
2300 2300 2 2283
2350 2350 4 2307
2400 2400 8 2363
2450 2450 16 2419
isa
July 24, 2012 at 03:07maybe Today euro will go up
Teddy
July 24, 2012 at 08:29Gm everyone,
looks like the market doesn’t know where to go… i will be careful today.
GL all.
Appie P
July 24, 2012 at 08:58GM @ted Yes also in Spanish / Italian bonds
Tuan
July 24, 2012 at 09:03Good Morning Guys and Girls
sahara
July 24, 2012 at 09:11gm all was away all the day yesterday !! will be in area for a few hours !! (!!
sahara
July 24, 2012 at 09:33long here 2090 for 45 pips with tight sl 27
sahara
July 24, 2012 at 10:07@Doc ?? are you in area or surfing ?? (08:45 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks ???) any QE ??
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 11:37Gm all
@Sahara
Hard to say…. I would be surprised if more QE was implemented.. IMO we will not see any QE until after the elections……
As you can see on the chart we are definitely into oversold territory and any ray of hope will send the euro into a correction not a reversal unless it’s some super good news
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/euweekly724.jpg/
The 2100 barrier has been broken though but IMO it’s best to wait until we see what Bernanke has to say…
Until then I’ll just scalp opportunities for quick profit or quick loss on the 1 and 5m tf
GL
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 11:43Off subject but interesting study done on Societal risk…
Check out this graph….
http://www.anh-europe.org/sites/default/files/UK_Bubbles_Graph_2012_9_July_Fin.pdf
Note how a stay in a UK hospital is equivalent to the same risk as a soldier on an Iraqi battlefield…
In the US the FDA wants to make supplementals and herbal medicine under their control i.e. prescription yet look at the risk of alternative medicines compared to pharmaceuticals
Anyhow..sorry for being off subject but may be of interest
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 11:58Per DailyFx…. sometimes these guys tend to release news that’s not quite correct so I am always suspect but here it is…fwiw
———————————————————————————————-
Worries about the Spanish and Greek debt crisis continue to pressure the markets for a second day. IMF and ECB representatives arrive in Athens today to discuss the next disbursement to Greece, however the tone has already turned negative, as PM Samaras said the economy’s recession could surpass 7% this year. While Samaras reiterated Greece’s respect for the bailout terms, he said they will have to make some changes to the conditions for the terms to be met. On the positive side, Samaras forecasted a drop from the current 24% unemployment to 10% within 4 years.
In more positive new, despite a rise in borrowing costs, Spain sold 3.05 billion euros of bills, beating its 3 billion maximum target. 3-month and 6-month bill yields rose the most in eight years from June’s sale to today, and Spain’s benchmark 10-year bond yield rose 9 basis points in the secondary market to 7.48%. So, despite a successful sale, the Spanish borrowing costs are still higher that acceptable.
The other story that affected Euro trading today, was the release of Euro-zone manufacturing and services PMI estimates. Although, the composite PMI was unchanged and expected at 47.6, lower than expected German PMI’s sent EURUSD briefly underneath 1.2100.
The Euro bounced back above the psychological resistance/support line at 1.2100 after the PMI release, before falling again as the Greek PM forecasted worse recession numbers. Yesterday’s 2-year low at 1.2066 should provide light support, beyond that little support will come in ahead of the 1.2000 line.
In other news, German and Luxembourg ministers refuted Moody’s outlook change to negative for the safer Euro governments. Also, UK mortgage approvals during June unexpectedly dropped to 26,269; this had little effect on Sterling trading. French business confidence dropped 2 points to 90 in July.
Looking ahead, the Spanish debt costs and Greek bailout package stories will continue to influence risk sentiment. Also, Canadian retail sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released in the North American session.
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 11:59Anyone here?
sahara
July 24, 2012 at 12:08hi @doc !! playing gold today
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 12:16Hi Sahara
Hope your making $$ :)
sahara
July 24, 2012 at 12:17not bad !!ysterday till 1580 !! am in from low !!
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 12:25Are you trading options?
sahara
July 24, 2012 at 12:39no @doc
Johnny
July 24, 2012 at 12:40Hi All.
Will go Long @2072 push up…and aiming 2410 (not today! but in the next days coming/end of the week) sl below 2030. Will take partially take some cream off on the way up. My view!
Very busy these days… Wishing all GL in here, back to duties…
sahara
July 24, 2012 at 12:50hi @johnny
sahara
July 24, 2012 at 12:57with daily hammer we can see 2180 area !! (but need a big sl
Johnny
July 24, 2012 at 12:58Yes and dont forget Bully Crab again H4 appeared before @2066, so dont think 2050 will breach soon to get lower :-)
Johnny
July 24, 2012 at 12:57Hi @Sahara – Awfully busy lately (even weekend :-( ) and its so hot today Grrrrrr…
Johnny
July 24, 2012 at 13:01Take a small Short here @ 2096 to first touch my 2072 and will Long from there as per above.
maher17
July 24, 2012 at 13:02Bernanke speaks grrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Johnny
July 24, 2012 at 13:05Thats very good that he speaks…..Imagine if he stands there and doesnt say a word ? :-)
Bernanke is gonna help me getting my (longer term/next days to come) aiming taget (2410), will already thank him in advance for that :-)
Appie P
July 24, 2012 at 13:06@johnny glad to see you, Bully Crab is our mascote :-)
Johnny
July 24, 2012 at 13:09Sure is @Appie…As said, like to see if bully crab 2066 will be strong enough to hold frther sliding? Lets see?
Chip
July 24, 2012 at 14:17Hi @all!
Today was scalpers’ day, so I left my wife scalping and went out to play with my son.
I didn’t get my 4 consecutive red candles under 1.2100 so I didn’t go short yet and the way things are going I think I’ll wait for better levels to short.
Stand-by mode for now, pending short orders @1.2250 – 0.1 lot, 1.2300 – 0.2 lot, 1.2350 – 0.4 lot and 1.2400 – 0.8 lot sl @1.2550, tp @1.1800.
A big thanks @Maria for sharing this trading strategy with us, so far it was worked just fine.
I wish you all a great day!
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 15:11Basically you’re averaging in…. just b/c as when it hurts it hurts bad….. :)
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 15:16You really need to be able to stomach increasing losses with doubling down strategies…
I trade just the opposite…..
I average in but only on winning trades….I lower my sl as the trade progresses
and set my sl per position entry fwiw
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 15:20I was cured of averaging in on losing trades when it cost 100k +
[|B?D
There was no reason for the stock to have run up and I kept doubling down on the trade…. it went from $7.5 to $25 a share b4 I accepted the loss and then within a month it had dropped back to under $2 a share…..
for this reason I am a balder man today lol
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 15:14IMO… beter than expected US data and rising Spanish and Italian bond yields are going to weigh heavy on the euro,,,,
I’m watching for a break of 2072 to add to my short positions
Chip
July 24, 2012 at 17:42I was again out walking and playing with my son and I missed the break, anyway my pending orders won’t be triggered with the market going south and I will delete them if I see a good reason for the EU to change direction which isn’t the case for now.
Thanks @doc1 for the good advice
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 15:29According to Der Spiegel…..
Berlin, IMF To Refuse Fresh Aid for Greece
Greece has fallen behind with its budget cuts and is asking lenders for more time to meet the conditions of the 130 billion euro aid package. But that would require fresh help of up to 50 billion euros, SPIEGEL has learned. Neither Berlin nor the IMF are prepared to make that money available.
Info
Germany and other important international creditors are not prepared to extend further loans to Greece beyond what has already been agreed, German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on Monday. In addition, SPIEGEL has learned that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) too has signalled it won’t take part in any additional financing for Greece.
The Süddeutsche Zeitung cited an unnamed German government source as saying it was “inconceivable that Chancellor Angela Merkel would again ask German parliament for approval for a third Greece bailout package.”
Merkel has had difficulty uniting her center-right coalition behind recent bailout decisions in parliamentary votes and would be unwilling to risk a rebellion in a another rescue for Greece, the newspaper reported.
Meanwhile, German Economy Minister Philipp Rösler said on Sunday he was “more than skeptical” that Greece’s reform efforts will succeed. “If Greece no longer meets its requirements there can be no further payments,” he said in an interview with German public broadcaster ARD. “For me, a Greek exit has long since lost its horrors.”
Athens wants to soften the terms of a €130 billion ($157 billion) bailout, the second rescue package for Greece, agreed to last March with the European Union and the IMF, to lessen their impact on an economy going through its worst recession since World War II.
Greece Going Through ‘Great Depression’
Athens must reduce its budget deficit below 3 percent of GDP by the end of 2014, from 9.3 percent of GDP in 2011 — requiring almost another €12 billion in cuts and higher taxes on top of the €17 billion successive governments have cut from the budget shortfall.
The left-right coalition of conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is under intense public pressure to ease the burden on Greeks. Samaras said on Sunday that Greece was in a “Great Depression” similar to the one in the US in the 1930s.
Athens has conceded it had slipped “in some respects” in implementing the cuts and reforms required by its creditors. Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras made the admission following a meeting with senior officials from the so-called “troika,” made up of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, which has been checking the country’s accounts this month.
Greece argues that its reform efforts were slowed by the two national elections in May and June and wants its lenders to give it two more years to achieve the budget goals to avoid an even deeper economic slump. But its lenders have opposed the idea because it would require even more financial aid.
‘Greece Must Catch Up’
SPIEGEL has learned that the troika expects that granting Greece more time would require additional aid of between €10 billion and €50 billion. The troika’s report on Greece’s reform progress could determine whether the country gets its next instalment of €31.5 billion in aid under the second aid package. If it doesn’t get the instalment, Greece risks running out of cash within weeks.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble made guarded comments about Greece on Monday. Asked if the country would have to leave the euro if the troika inspectors filed a negative report on its reform progress, Schäuble told German newspaper Bild: “I won’t pre-empt the troika. If there have been delays, Greece must catch up. When the troika submits its report, the Euro Group (of euro-zone finance ministers) will discuss it.”
But even if the next tranche of aid weren’t paid out and the Greek government were forced to declare bankruptcy this autumn, it is unclear what would happen. EU treaties don’t give the bloc the power to evict a country from the single currency union.
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 15:49Tuesday, July 24, 2012 ⌚11:39 AM
RT @CVecchioFX: GREECE SEEN MISSING EU/IMF DEBT REDUCTION TARGETS, FURTHER DEBT RESTRUCTURING NECESSARY – unnamed EU officials.
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 15:55guess nobody is trading today…. short @ 2172 sl 2175… tight stop because it’s either going to fall or not….. if it regains the 2172 support then I’ll just wait
John R
July 24, 2012 at 16:21Yeah…hard to find a trade where there is little rallying to short. hahaha.
I’m just going to wait it out and let 1.2050 pop (if at all). I’m just afraid that 1.2000 psych level may be even tougher to break without a decent retracement first.
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 16:18EU is dropping below the 30 line on the RSI ….
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 16:26Yeah… I’m just shorting the support breaks ….. adding also to my long term shorts at each support break…
GL
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 16:28closed my short term position from 2172 @ 2146 as these seem to always get a slight pop…. I’ll reshort at 2170 or below 2140 now
Jim
July 24, 2012 at 22:04Looking @ the monthly chart and it just smells like a correction is overdue…..
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/841/eumonth724.jpg/
Even though the trend is still clearly down on the historic chart it is clear that EU is finding support on the MA’s which are hinting at a bottom….
With the bets on that the FEDS will ease before September ( old news does not move markets rumours do) I am becoming more and more biased to a stronger correction before we head down to 118 or lower…..
I am watching for the big exhaustion move before closing all my open positions and begin to build a long position
FWIW