Forex Signals – EURUSD Eyes on Bernanke
Recap: We did not open any new EU trades yesterday as we started off with the intraday update and then there were no S/R breaks to trigger our trades.
Lots of big news today but the biggest of them all is Bernanke’s semi-annual Senate hearing where he will deliver Fed monetary policy and drop hints about QE3 and the state of the US economy. Traders will be especially interested about QE3 as any positive news about it (meaning it is likely to happen) should drive risk appetite (EU bullish) while news that he is not keen on QE3 should smother risk-appetite (EU bearish, USD bullish).
We expect Bernanke to be dovish on QE3, meaning we expect a bearish result by the end of the week (short term news events are notoriously difficult to time right as positions get “whipped” out). We will continue to let the charts guide our entries, however, and will look to get short on a support break today.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 17 |
01:30 | AUD Reserve Bank Board July Minutes | ||
| 08:30 | GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| 08:30 | GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) | 2.5% | 2.2% | |
| 09:00 | EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL) | -20 | -16.9 | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) | 1.6% | 1.7% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN) | 2.2% | 2.3% | |
| 14:00 | USD Fed’s Bernanke Delivers Monetary Policy Report to Senate | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: As we mentioned above we are only looking to get short on a support break today with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips.
There is a long to be had on a resistance break however we find that horizontal S/R lines are lower probability so we will pass on that trade (aggressive traders only).
* * * PipHut PRO* * *
Get alert when daily signal comes out
READ ME: How to trade PipHut’s Daily Signal
Read more about swing trading
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 06:43closed my long for better entry
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 06:43as you said @yasser a big “machine ” this piphut !!!
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 06:46yah ,,, how is our Baby !!!! it seems that he is weak , but still i love long and short with him
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 06:50our Gold Sahara or you he is not your baby any more hhhhh
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 06:52waiting 1586 to take decision
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 06:55mmmmmmm but i think we will stay in same range. its good for 5$ trading with good position hhhh
Jim
July 18, 2012 at 06:44Hi Yassar…
Thanks… I just try and add my 2 cents and appreciate all the insights from my fellow traders….
GL with trading
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 06:49Thanks Doc….
good luck to all of us and i hope always helping each other to have healthy trading with fun, as i say always (life short..make money and have fun) hhhhhh…
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 06:58from my Broker
after Bernanke induced volatility yesterday, London walks in this morning to a slightly bid Dollar and in-the-red
after BernankFollowing the Bernanke induced volatility yesterday, London walks in this morning to a slightly bid Dollar and in-the-red Asia equities NKY -0.32, HK -1.34, China +0.15%
EUR EURUSD hit 1.2305 highs and AUDUSD threaten the July highs (printing 1.0236 vs. 1.0229 highs seen on the 5th, last 1.03) amid a light data calendar overnight.
News wise, markets will rehasting Bernakes statements, Europe dominates with the UK announcing the latest in a series of infrastructure boosting measures (this time a guarantee scheme to underpin £50bn of big infrastructure projects
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 07:00long again
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 07:00three again closed 20 pips
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 07:10we have to go above 23 now
Johnny
July 18, 2012 at 07:05@Appie No changes whatsoever, still looking to Short from above 2400 back down to 2150.
However will closely watch around there since won’t surprise me to get 2500 insight with this Bullish Butterffly on the Daily. Lets see?
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 07:07god bless all butterf !!gm friend
Johnny
July 18, 2012 at 07:09GM @Sahara
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 07:09Johnny how are my dear , good to see you
Johnny
July 18, 2012 at 07:11Its ok Yasser, I am keeping low…better! Glad to learn you’re in good health now…
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 07:19Johnny…. you are the first one who i know here since years , before i have told you some thing and again i will say ,i always like your comments when you look to the big picture..
keep your comments active we need it and we need every one like you , in my opinion every one here has different strategy and when we are reading the comments from every one here,
we or I learning a lot and helpful to make healthy trading
keep going Johnny we like you.
good lcuk to our Piphut family..
John R
July 18, 2012 at 07:34So, johnny leant your lesson to stay low on accusing others. Guess you change your mind again to come back when you said you won’t.
This is a free forum for all, but be courteous and say only what you know to be true.
BeMoreWild
July 18, 2012 at 07:52we should always welcome johny…n never ever think of leaving the piphut family(well said by yasser)……
Appie P
July 18, 2012 at 07:21@Johnny Two scenarios today: short >2400 and long 2130-2150. Also listen to my scalping signals :-)
Grace
July 18, 2012 at 07:05good morning every one here! where is doc1 mt assistant manager, are we up or down? thanks
John R
July 18, 2012 at 07:38Hard to pick the direction today when a day like yesterday happens. 1DSMA is barely bearish, but could break out anywhere.
I’m still long swissy, which means bearish fibre. But I will be ready to cut loss quickly.
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 07:13trying a short 2290 !! a s s in my 10 mn
Johnny
July 18, 2012 at 07:15@Sahara Bull Eng. M15 and PL on H1 !!!
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 07:19yes but i had a hm in 30 k=not paid yet !!
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 07:24http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/14/59742543.png/
Johnny
July 18, 2012 at 07:17push down 2296 !
Johnny
July 18, 2012 at 07:55@JohnR I had absolutely no intention in showing up again. Just for no other reason then giving my view/advise to some close and old friends of mine in here I placed my comment yesterday/today. Certainly didnt came back for you!
But Im actually glad to see your reaction (your comment just here above…)
Gives me, once again, even more reason to stay away from here.
BeMoreWild
July 18, 2012 at 08:14im slightly bearish for the pair coz of daily graph…what do u sujjest?as Bernake didnt honored Dollar yesterday which he may do today…..
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 08:02a dble bearish doji eu and gu !!
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 08:13pls !! why you did not try to travel together and accept any “critics” as friendly one but in the same time try to be correct every time when you comment a “way of trading of another” piphutter !! perhaps am write in my trad today and you are wrong and tomorrow will be another way ….the only way here is to understand and to trad with @Mark in eu or others pair in pro ..if we respect entry and exit points we can be in a nice profit …but us we trad all the day and we want to be in all mvement that s why we have sometimes a few problem in our comments ..but pls there are a lot of followers here in piphut who s never send a comment think for them too …..we are a nice team here we can be BETTER !!!
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 08:33@ Sahara
i agree with you 100%, no one has idea how many person follow, reading, learning every day !!! you want to know???please ask Mark and you will be surprise from the big numbers coming to read to learn from this website , its not normal website its family home and all of you good people in the way you are talking and providing ideas , so please my words to every one here please please dont become to stage by leaving your place in our family and for what ????!!!!
here we are making money and have fun please never forget that….
every one of you can become billioner and this is fact and true and i believe it as i believe in my God ….
we are not here to challenge each other and not to heat each other we are here to work together and have nice team work where we can become more close to each other…
i am very sorry if some get angry from my words but all what I want to say… i love this family and i will never and ever leave this family its part of my life…
Regards,
Yasser
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 08:15closed a few short
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 08:21possible tp from 2292 http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/513/poss.png/
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 08:37last short out !!
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 08:40still long looking above 23
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 08:41was short from 2292 area all closed green !!
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 08:42R is there !! 2305 area:!!
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 08:44we have to go above 2296 first
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 08:45GB: Labour Market Report Claimant Count-Chg
Actual: 6,100
Previous: 8,100
Consenus: 6,000
Claimant Count
Actual: 4.9%
Previous: 4.9%
Consenus: 4.9%
ILO Unemployment
Actual: 8.1%
Previous: 8.2%
Consenus: 8.2%
Av. Earnings-Y/Y
Actual: 1.5%
Previous: 1.4%
Consenus: 1.4%
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 08:46from my broker
EUR from major US bank…. subdued price action this morning, models the main players buying Risk (ZAR, Skandies, AUD mainly) but all come back flat to smalls weaker. AUD the biggest flows so far but still light on relative basis
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 08:55from my broker
GBP BoE MPC voted 7-2 to raise QE total by GBP50 bn vs consensus 9-0; GBP75 bn also discussed. Voted 9-0 for unch rates.
GBP BoE states it may examine possible rate cut after assessing the new measure
GBP more on the BoE minutes….2 members very clearly more on the hawkish side. Of 7 that voted for QE it was an even split between 50 and 75bln. Market will respond to Dale and Broadbrent voting for no change..
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 08:58trying a new short eu gu for 15 pips
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 09:04glosed for a few pips grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr a new candle 999.99 grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Maria
July 18, 2012 at 08:59Thank you Yasser for the previous comment on my trading ideas, appreciate it.
yasser
July 18, 2012 at 09:08you welcome Maria , i will start make plan for short positions above 23 up to 25 ..
what do you think ? we are going to see 25??
Maria
July 18, 2012 at 10:18I don’t predict price Yasser, I just choose a mid-term bias and trade whatever comes. At the moment it is just too risky for me to go long since we can fall sharp any time based on the bigger picture down trend (which also stays intact even if we were to go to 1.28).
sahara
July 18, 2012 at 09:05i need you help @Mark for this !!
Inverted Hammer
Timeframe: 15m
Close Price: 1.56240
Candle Open: 2012.07.18 08:45
Profit Factor high: 999.99
bullish
Patrick
July 18, 2012 at 09:29THIS BEARS WONT LAST .TWO DAILY PIN BARS IS ENOUGH TO LONG THIS PAIR
BeMoreWild
July 18, 2012 at 10:16Spain is scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding for its bank bailout plan at the end of this week and with some details still unknown, there could be some euro induced volatility for currencies towards the end of this week.
Now what does this means?any comments plz
Jim
July 18, 2012 at 10:3235 pips on 5 lots…. I like it :)
Jim
July 18, 2012 at 10:24Ahhhh… just came back and found my short from 2280 hit my tp @ 2245… nice way to wake up [|B?D
Jim
July 18, 2012 at 10:38Right on support…… just waiting to see if it becomes resistance
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/31/eu718a.jpg/