Forex Signals – Happy 4th of July!
Happy Independence Day! Though July 4th is a US holiday the basic tenants of any independence day, regardless of what country you are from – the natural rights of mankind to freedom, independence and the pursuit of happiness – are something we feel that everyone can support. So happy July 4th, PipHut Community! Thanks to everyone (especially all you regulars! for making PipHut the best forex community on the web!
Recap: Our long from 1.2600 yesterday nearly got stopped out as the pair dipped to 1.2558 in afternoon trading, and then jumped up to 25 pips in the profit. 1.2550 support held firm. We are going to stay in the trade with our SL still down at 1.2550. The pair appears to be consolidating once more for another stab upward (bullish flag pattern).
Today is a US holiday, with all US banks closed, which may give the Euro a bit of an edge throughout the day.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Jul 4 |
09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) | -1.0% | -3.4% |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: As mentioned above our long from 1.26 is still alive and well with our 50 pip SL and targets at 80 pips. Normally we would look to close and get short on a support break but with the US Banks closed we will pass on that setup today.
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Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 09:42Magnitude 5.4 Quake Hits Mindanao, Philippines
80 miles ESE of Sarangani , depth 38.3 miles
According to the USGS
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 09:45One little truth about the markets……
Fundamentals are really only a tool to get the markets moving…… institutions do not care which direction order flow comes in at because their job is to be contrary to retail order flow.. in other words if an institution ( the banks that provides liquidity to our brokers) sees lots of orders for longs they want to drive the price down to take your money…. the battle is not a battle of real fundamentals but simply a battle of contrary perceptions… one instiutution may have a heavy long order flow and another may have just the opposite hence we get the tug of war :)
sahara
July 5, 2012 at 09:50that s why we need a tamtam to be in the wave!!
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 09:47When we see a strong rally it is simply because the markets are in general agreement on direction… not fundamental reality i.e. this should cause that ….fwiw and JMHO
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 09:48As it already was in my schooldays @Doc….I got the beating all the time because the other guy was so mean ugly and…so strong :-)
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 09:50lol… right on johnny :D
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 09:49Notice how whenever we get a sluggish market the fundamental wheels start turning stronger until we get a response
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 09:50Pavlov’s Dogs… ring the bell until they salivate :DD
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 09:50If it doesnt move real soon I might close out Long and may go back Shorting??? Its taking to long for the lift off :-) No damage done so far :-) Lets see? Give it a few more mins…
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 09:52Their either creating a bull or bear trap… no way to know… hence the old adage ” never trade a dull market” :)
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 09:56We ve got a stronghold (sup) around 2490/95…Lets see if it holds and willing to bounce….Still Long :-)
sahara
July 5, 2012 at 09:59yes a strong !! i need a strong drink to stay in market !! red yes i am !! but a red cambel too in hand (left one !! so early i know !!
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 09:58Mark probably still cleaning his BBQ by now??? @Piphut we are all waiting Mark !
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 10:00EU Factory orders coming up in a minute or so??? Lets see :-)
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 10:00German factory orders that is :-)
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 10:02They should help your long a bit …
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 10:02@Sahara If we lift up from my Long @2500 we gonna see 2550 and 2575 back eventually … from around there I may short back again to 2520/30 or lower….. Lets see?
sahara
July 5, 2012 at 10:03am a “golden camel ” today need to bke 1618
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 10:03Hi there @Chip ….We are doing all the work in here and you are going off sunbathing? Not fair, not at all…. :-) GL and good to see ya
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 10:10Thanks @Johnny, I know life is not fair, but we all have an advantage over the “working class”, for example yesterday while sunbathing I left my short from 1.2604 open and closed it at 1.2515 with a glass of cold beer in my left hand (I always take my laptop and internet stick with me).
For now I am flat, I want to see market reaction on ECB’s decision (I think they will kick the can down the road, and Mario Draghi will tell us the devil is not as black as we think – I may be wrong though)
Good to see you too @Johnny!
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 10:04*Germany May Factory Orders Rise 0.6% On Month: Reports
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 10:05Bull Hammer 2 on H1 :-)
test
July 5, 2012 at 10:11Testing
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 10:12Have a meeting in a short moment…..Leaving this Long @2500 running, 1tp 2550 and aiming 2tp 2575 , omce reached 2575 I will probably Short from that level back down to 1tp2535 and 2tp lower but open…. Just my plan!!!
sl just below 2490 now.
See ya later. GL
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 10:17@Chip —- YEah! That 2604 nbr I remember well and is still ringing a bell inside my head…:-)
Now off….tc
Harry
July 5, 2012 at 10:19good time IMHO to long aussie and Kiwi against USD and JPY
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 11:01S&P 500 looks to be readying for a selloff
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/26/sp50075.jpg/
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 11:03Short EU @ 2525 ..quick scalp
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 11:04lol… well that happened quick…out @2511…14 pips…
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 11:05haha, my assumed breakout long on swissy turn to be bounce ir is it trying to shake off fake long:)
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 11:06PRO Alert
***************
Pair: AUDUSD
Type: Resistance Proximity Alert
S/R Level: 1.03
Alert Price: 1.029
Alert Time: 2012-07-05 10:59:56
To view S/R charts or change your notification
settings log into your PRO account at PipHut
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 11:08wow! my bulls seems to be back on action on swissy so i guess bears are also back on fiber, i am not watching the fiber chart haha
Zeeshan Anjum
July 5, 2012 at 11:09StopLoss Hunting…. :p
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 11:10now it is a real tug! let c who wins but i am voting for bears on fiber
sahara
July 5, 2012 at 11:29was golding !!!! a few $ for “golden camels”
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 11:36PRO Alert
***************
Pair: AUDUSD
Type: Support Proximity Alert
S/R Level: 1.0282
Alert Price: 1.0292
Alert Time: 2012-07-05 11:07:04
To view S/R charts or change your notification
settings log into your PRO account at PipHut
sahara
July 5, 2012 at 11:40nice kays!!!
sahara
July 5, 2012 at 11:415604/12 gu if broken????
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 11:50WOW! i deserve a slap! i had a long open on swissy since morning and juts now i set it to BE fearing bn traped here and suddenly if bombed up
Zeeshan Anjum
July 5, 2012 at 11:53long @ 455
Small lot…
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 11:53Just a quick look here, still meeting…
See was stopped out on my Long (Had a tl behind it) on the spike of BOE decision. Trails are nice….sometimes :-) lucky me…
Just took a Long, following my Old Plan…, here from 2455 and aiming 2750+ … Not today !!! (Had this plan already for days….Should have left my y/days Short from 2604 to final tp 2460/65 after all Grrrr |:-(
Now back up it is….My view !!!! GL
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 11:56Number of times I told myself….leave this trade in (2604 tp 2460/65) But….I just had to spoil it myself :-(
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 12:26me too but thank God i got out without lossing even my swimmer of one week got out with bonus but i jumped ship to lose free 50pips
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 12:00Not the reaction I thought on the rate cut…. staying out for now and waiting for a retrace before taking a short….. euro looks heavy and 2270 looks like it’s in the future…. when in doubt stay out :)
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 12:01free fall … no comment, I was wrong about the ECB’s decision, but I sure was right about the SELL signal.
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 12:08It seems like the cut in the deposit rate to 0% from 0.25% is what “shocked” the market and pushed it lower.
US ADP jobless claims coming up. The market expects 100k, after 133k last
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 12:09Guys in here asking me what am I doing with my pocketpc in my hand all the time…..Better stack it away :-) Will be done in abt 30 mins….catch ya later…GL
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 12:13ok.. long EU 2426….. see what happens…. sl is very tight but manual
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 12:14yeah the deposit rate cut was a shocker
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 12:16Things aren’t looking good for the euro….. my long term short is still in place….. closed my long…..
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 12:18Going to stick to my guns about not trying to catch the bounce… ughhhh….. weak moment lol :D
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 12:19From the men s room (Making a san.stop and this way quick look in here)…
@Doc, as Dean mentioned earlier, what you make of the Daily? H&S???? If so we may go further down to 2350- ??? Cant see it clearly on my pocket pc …
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 12:20btw closed my long too and went short….i think we have a hs pat and will drop another 100 or so pips?
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 12:20I just want to share with you a little trick I did today: 1 minute before the ECB rate announcement I went both long and short on the EU with a sl of 10 pips on the both sides and tp open for both of them. The long hit the sl and then at 1.2425 I closed the short too.
It’s a bit risky and it doesn’t work all the times, but this time it worked just fine.
Cheers!
BeMoreWild
July 5, 2012 at 12:25hahahhahaha Congrats chip:) an old trick i use to play:)
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 12:26The risk is that the market can play a bit of ping pong before deciding and it can hit both sl’s, this time I got lucky.
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 12:29PUSH up zone i guess
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 12:31we are bearing for REAL?
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 12:39It’s strange isn’t it … BoE raises their QE by 25 bln, ECB cuts rates and markets still fall … investors don’t believe in miracles any more.
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 12:58haha i wont b surprised that tmr will bring strong bulls
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 13:00What do you think will “trigger” the bulls ?
Kay
July 5, 2012 at 12:59if this was caused by IRAN daring to fire a missile i will understand but this is sweet just that i jumped out micro seconds too early
Jim
July 5, 2012 at 12:44Live ECB press conference
http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_120705.en.html
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 13:01@chip went E/U short after July 3 (full moon). You remember after July 3?
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 13:03history did repeat itself after all … we had a good feeling @appie
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 13:08@chip good to know the history :-)
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 13:06went U/J long @79.88
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 13:09Don’t forget – initial jobless claims in the US beat expectations for the first time in 2 months, good news for payrolls tomorrow?
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 13:21@johnny good for USD (make it stronger)?
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 13:25I guess so @Appie :-) We ve noticed already :-)
Still shorting and think it may go even deeper then what Ive set as tp now (2330) ???
Manipulators doing their job just great it seems…, once again….
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 13:57yes tp 2330 for the moment …
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 13:30@Appie have an eye on Gold….If that stops tumbling the euro may also be finishing its fall??? :-)
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 14:00correlation Gold and Euro?
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 13:33Topped up on that last Short I took…All is forgiven (my own mistake y/day) and back in plus plus pippies…Sun is smiling and shining…. not only outside :-)
Johnny (from PocketPc)
July 5, 2012 at 13:35And now turned Long here at 2375 , gold stopped dropping too and I think the H&S has come to its end? Lets see if we may have a minor correction up?
fxtrader
July 5, 2012 at 14:28hey Johnny!
Where is your target for the long?
sahara
July 5, 2012 at 13:59i find a pair to trad !! so easy 10 pips up 10 down from days hahahahahahah eurochf same place from weeks !!
Harry
July 5, 2012 at 14:11Hi all
Chip, did you do OK with GBPAUD and GBPCAD and GBPNZD? I got into GA and GC and closed out for 60 pips. Pity I missed EURAUD which actually was even better!!
I’m short now on GBPJPY
Chip
July 5, 2012 at 14:29@Harry, I only traded EU today with a nice 84 pip profit, but I agreed with you they were a good trade too, for today. I like to focus on what I know best and EU is my favourite, although it’s difficult to trade most of the time, like @doc1 said two weaklings trying to settle a fight.
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 14:11@johnny how’s your new love U/C? went long @1.0125
Johnny
July 5, 2012 at 15:01@fxtrader. Sorry have inexpected visitors. I am still Long from 2375 and MAY close and turn short at 2420/25. My view
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 15:49pending order: E/U short @1.243 SL1.2471 TP1.2322 (valid today)
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 16:08pending order e/j short @99.38 SL99.74 TP98.42 (valid today)
Maria
July 5, 2012 at 16:58Good evening all,
I finally got back home yesterday, but continuing with an absolutely crazy workload and not seeing where this will end, so my posts will probably become more rare here.
I started the day with some small longs again, ended up closing them in a combined 100 pip loss around 1.25 where I entered an extremely big short (both leverage and position size making it about 5 times bigger than the combined longs) thinking that I will look to get about 10 pips out of it, stop was at 5 pips.
This short developed a mind of it’s own and is now in just over 100 pips profit, moved the stop to plus 50 pips, targetting a re-test of yearly lows.
Hope you all had a great and a lot less stressful day than me.
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 17:34@maria glad to hear that you make profits (heavy movings). Break-out yearly low?
Maria
July 5, 2012 at 17:40Wouldn’t bet on it, re-test low, high around 27-28 and then break low would seem logical, but this market doesn’t like logic right now, so we’ll see what comes and trade what we see.
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 17:48@maria I agree not to bet, better to listen to the long/short signals.
Johnny
July 5, 2012 at 17:50Hi again…….Almost 20,00 hrs …finally home at last….Still need to prepare some food….(Which Maria was here to cook for me ? :-) )
I see you are doing just great @Mary :-) And I also see you’re very busy, maybe to busy to watch your trades even ?
Good to see you anywayz :-) GL
Comment left on:
July 2, 2012 at 23:07
maria says:
Good evening all, hope you had a good day.
No trading change for me. Short term short on USD/CAD in progress, short term long on EUR/USD from current levels, mid-term short set will start building from 2750.
Comment left on:
July 3, 2012 at 08:12
maria says:
Good morning and thank you Mark,
no change for me, still short-term long EU and short UC from yesterday. Moving the stop on UC to BE (currently around 30pips in profit).
Wish you a fantastic day
Reply
#
Comment left on:
July 3, 2012 at 08:46
saharaview says:
gm @maria !! nice madame !!! a fantastic day to you too!!!
Reply
#
Comment left on:
July 3, 2012 at 17:44
piphut says:
You are welcome Maria, good morning (afternoon now) to you as well :)
Comment left on:
July 4, 2012 at 05:22
maria says:
Good morning all,
staying long EU, UC short-term took profit on around 30 pips or so. No new trades and monitoring active ones mobile today since I get to go back home!
Will be checking in again when I get back to Germany.
Have a great day!
Johnny
July 5, 2012 at 17:56Btw Guys…..Just checked my charts (since I have a better view home :-) Since I went Long @2375…..I consider keeping this one running…(Nothing thinking to re-short as earlier mentioned around 2420/25!)
2380/90 is a Key to me and as long as we manage to stay around/above this level its (How crazy it may sound to you @Dean ? :-)) UP to me… and…in time to come….2900 will be getting insight again……Only a sustain below 2310 would change my mind (Of course this is longer term thinking and trading :-) GL to ya all…
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 18:08@johnny yes in Friday trading (low volume) is everything possible :-)
Johnny
July 5, 2012 at 18:09Just for the records….Long @2375 – Sl @2280 (Getting a sustain below 2310 would make me poor another strong one, just for the nerves) and looking forward to get 2900 insight again….(Longer term trade) Just my view, and do as you please!!!
Johnny
July 5, 2012 at 18:24How stupid of me !!!!:-( POOR=POUR :-)
Johnny
July 5, 2012 at 18:18@Appie Try finding the song on You Tube (Its Tom T Hall, long forgotten country singer….But a great song with great meaning :-)) Enjoy ….
How old do you think I am he said I said well I didn’t know
He said I turned sixty five about eleven months ago
I was sittin’ in Miami pourin’ blended whiskey down
When this old grey black gentleman was cleanin’ up the lounge
There wasn’t anyone around ‘cept this old man and me
The guy who ran the bar was watching Ironsides on TV
Uninvited he sat down and opened up his mind
On old dogs and children and watermelon wine
Ever had a drink of watermelon wine he asked
He told me all about it though I didn’t answer back
Ain’t but three things in this world that’s worth a solitary dime
But old dogs and children and watermelon wine
He said women think about theyselves when menfolk ain’t around
And friends are hard to find when they discover that you’re down
He said I tried it all when I was young and in my natural prime
Now it’s old dogs and children and watermelon wine
Old dogs care about you even when you make mistakes
God bless little children while they’re still too young to hate
When he moved away I found my pen and copied down that line
‘Bout old dogs and children and watermelon wine
[ harmonica ]
I had to catch a plane up to Atlanta that next day
As I left for my room I saw him pickin’ up my change
That night I dreamed in peaceful sleep of shady summertime
Of old dogs and children and watermelon wine
Appie P
July 5, 2012 at 18:34hahahah !! singing in the hut: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgaDhMg62jI
Johnny
July 5, 2012 at 18:47Tnx Appie , copied that one…Its a great song (to me, perhaps not to many others in here ? :-))
Johnny
July 5, 2012 at 18:49Anyway, better we all go early to bed since I guess no real excitment in the market till NFP comes out……NFP could of course completely destroy my view and trading plan ! :-)
But I think its ok…. :-)
GN and GL