Forex Signals – EURUSD Trust the System
PRO Update: This isn’t the announcement we keep teasing you with, but we just wanted to let you know that we are also in the processing of cleaning up the help section of PipHut (called the “Help Center” now) to make it easier than ever to trade with us. Check it out now!
Recap: After a lackluster (but still profitable) August our swing trading hit full stride yesterday with 4/5 pairs getting 50-80 pips into the profit for a 266 pip day. The only pair we didn’t trade, UJ, still got 40 pips into the profit on its support break if you took it. It just goes to show that when you trade a proven system with a track record, you need to trust in that system even when the results are not where you want them to be!
Our long was triggered on the 12:58 UTC resistance break yesterday at 1.2810. Our 80 pip target of 1.2890 was missed by just 5 pips and we are going to close out at current price (1.2866) for 56 pips profit.
EU has been in a very clear uptrend since late July now (when it was flirting with 1.20!). Since that 1.20 bounce the pair has climbed 800 pips. That climb, however, resembles a bearish flag pattern on the daily/weekly charts. However, we will continue to look up on the shorter term 4h charts until the bottom yellow rising support is broken.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 12 |
06:00 | EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG F) | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 06:00 | EUR German Consumer Price Index – EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG F) | 2.2% | 2.2% | |
| 07:00 | EUR EU to Announce Details of Banking Union | |||
| 08:00 | EUR German Constitutional Court Announces ESM Ruling | |||
| 08:30 | GBP Jobless Claims Change (AUG) | 0.0K | -5.9K | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: We would prefer to get long but with a solid rising support as our only S/R at the moment we will take a short on a support break with targets at 80 pips profit.
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smile
September 12, 2012 at 07:58Thanks Mark for the signal
Kobe
September 12, 2012 at 07:59thanks mark!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:10yo yo yo yo !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:17SAID YES GERMANY !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:21pippppppppppppppppppppppppsssssssssssssssss !! hahahahahah !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:221746 closed !!
HarryG
September 12, 2012 at 08:24@saharaview
Well done!
What did I say about GOLD yesterday!!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:26had lines 1731 area and bought in every low !! closed all 1746!!!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:26http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/594/66985047.png/
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:24had my daily pips !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:32all closed now waiting piphut trading ides
doc1
September 12, 2012 at 08:34Gm all… lol… posted in the old forum,,gotta remember to refresh
High courts are ruling that Germany will have unlimited buying UP to 190 billion euros.. after that they will need Parliamentary approval to purchase more bonds.
It’s important to wait and see how the market digests this news… seems bullish in the short term but the market is going to consider if 190 billion is enough to save the euro.
doc1
September 12, 2012 at 08:39My belief is the FEDS will disappoint the market tomorrow on QE3 for political reasons.
More than likely they will present some form of program thaty will benefit consumers and the real estate market and save the QE3 bullet for a later date
Tomorrow should be a great day for the US$
I may eat crow but, if so, it won’t be the first time :)
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:50second kiss 05 @smile !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:50gm @doc!!
doc1
September 12, 2012 at 08:53gm @sahara…. congrats on your gold trades
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:57thanks doc !! QE3 wil fly us again tomorrow
smile
September 12, 2012 at 08:53Only one pip from my tp level
smile
September 12, 2012 at 08:54my eu
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:58did you sree chart aud in PM?
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:592822 ??
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 08:59ah yes 2815 i rmember!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 09:00me i said 2905 !! from 2840 orders !! but closed below 29 area
smile
September 12, 2012 at 09:03Yep take it. But closed my short entry -20pips now waiting
doc1
September 12, 2012 at 09:03EU should reach 130 today…. I don’t believe we will see a rise above 130
Long @ 2885 with sl @ break of todays pre-court ruling of 2872.. tp 1…2950 and close @ 2985
fwiw and Gl to all
smile
September 12, 2012 at 09:05Now eu situation is long is difficult 4H daily stochastic overbought
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 09:05@Doc… Just wanted to remember you on your comment just only a week ago….”Remember Sell in September!” Or what was it again?…..Ah what do ya know, I found the copy of your comment (See below):
aint FX funny as it goes ?
Comment left on:
September 6, 2012 at 13:20
doc1 says:
Gm all
In essence the ECB bond buying plan is akin to setting your children up in the lemonade selling business and then purchasing all the lemonade yourself. Until the issues of growth and unemployment are securely answered then I hold the euro will fall. As I stated weeks ago… “investors are looking for any shed of hope to buy into an extremely oversold euro”
The big boys are returning from summer vacation and September has historically been a “sell” market.
Hold on to your hats for the rest of the story…
Setting up my long term EU short positions again……. i.e. shorting the rallies
Fwiw and best of luck to all
Comment left on:
September 6, 2012 at 13:22
doc1 says:
As a further note… keep in mind that an unlimited bond buying policy is the same as outright currency dillution and this in itself will cause the euro to become devalued
Flag
doc1
September 12, 2012 at 09:16@Johnny…
meaning what?
The market is a fluid medium… as conditions change I adapt…..
Best if you just ignore my comments as they seem to distress you my friend
Happy pipping
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 09:22A more updated comment as yours seems to be tailored to suit your particular needs
Comment left on:
September 12, 2012 at 04:19
doc1 says:
@Andi
I have closed all my short positions once my SL was pierced and support formed. At that point I went long for the short term but I still maintain the euro will decline and eventually reach parity or dissolve altogether.
The US$ is not any better by any stretch of the imagination with it’s sole strong point being it is the reserve currency with a longer track record
I believe we may see a sell off on the news after a big initial run up. The faster this happens the greater the odds for a reversal and subsequent selloff on the news.
I believe we may spike to 130/3020 so these are the levels I am watching.
If the rally is slow and steady then it will probably be longer term and 3200/50 may be in the cards.
This German Court event has been around long enough for the market to have already priced in the news so be aware
GL
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 09:45Yeah, I hear/read you friend! Besides, That comment of yours here above to @Andi was from only yesterday….. And no, I am not distresed (on the contrary).
Nice to see that even Mark is refering in todays daily where we came from….The 2040 level…..Still remember all your posting from that time @Doc…..And how determined you was going/keeping your Shorts….(And kinda made me feel as the Joker in here…Remember?) How funny can it go hey? lol (Btw. I do not see any comments lately from those who were standing at your side back then? Wonder where they’re gone? A Greek holiday or such?
GL… Friend!
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 12:51I am at a loss as to why you feel the need to antagonize @Johnny
I apologize for any outbursts I have comitted towards you in the past…
Let’s endeavor to create a more positive trading atmosphere and work towards
mutual respect and consideration…
I value your insights and feel as though our differences are purely one of time frames and trading styles..
To your health and prosperity
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 09:38As the courts ruled that Germany does NOT have unlimited bond buying power … capped at 190 billion then the fundamentals changed… exactly how the market will digest and react to the news is yet to be seen… the FEDS QE3 decision will be a huge factor in putting the puzzle pieces together
smile
September 12, 2012 at 09:07Aud/usd 4H hanging man?
dd
September 12, 2012 at 09:07@Mark i like the way you use your chart…
PipHut Team
September 12, 2012 at 18:50thanks @dd.
dd
September 12, 2012 at 09:09@ p/a eh!
KRISTOFA OKENTA
September 12, 2012 at 09:19It pays handsomely well to stick with a proven system that works. For it will consistently show its validity
dd
September 12, 2012 at 10:20@ kiristofa are you new?
KRISTOFA OKENTA
September 12, 2012 at 11:58since 2010
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 09:39@smile ?? no HM in aud 4h !!(will close in 1h 20 mn
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 09:48fly camels fly!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 09:50usdyen will back to 78
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 10:34think not god with this triangl 15 !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 09:53after a gold correction will travel 1777 !! (a boeing
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 10:01closed a 2890 2930 @nice doc but still usdyen till 7803 from 7780
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 11:27out usdyen mixed
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 11:31http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/267/65058722.png/
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 11:3215 mn
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 11:57@Mark i have not read correctly daily signal with nice words about swing trading !! This way is great but the problem is trader (first me : sometimes even you are flat in signal ! we go alone in this “dark market” sometimes we can see the issue ,usually we have only our eyes to “cry” ….) I know i have to read more and study again and again and with a nice “discipline” i can go better !! i beleive on it .. analysis is made daily by all of your signals .. the only thing we have to do is “following” (not with closes eyes but R and S is front of us ..we need first to understand how to trad a signal : SL TP and when we exit ………) Great job again ..i know august is “hard to trad” because of volatility and low volume than any technical analysis is “not in the way” …Now market is back and players are here Let s do good month in septembre and a big “boum boum boum” till end of this year Thank you @Mark for all !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 12:59momentum is bearish from 2930 high !! kissed 2800 this morning !! another daily kiss??
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 13:03@sahara
I will close my long position after 0930 EST if we don’t see some momentum from the opening of the NYSE
Tomorrows FOMC will be a big event so it’s best to remain patient and only trade on true momentum
keep those camels watered :)
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 13:06closed long 2930 area now trying a down and buy in any nice low!!
Fred
September 12, 2012 at 13:15sahara please help!! i have been reading through the candlestick patterns and your comments, Need advice, which time frame would be best to view a candle patterns when making a trade, my current equity low building slowly.
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 13:18i use 15 and 30 to entry a trad after analysis with 4 h usually !!
Fred
September 12, 2012 at 16:21thank you for the advice
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 13:07Per Money and Markets.. Weiss Marketing,,,,
——————————————————-
Interesting read
———————
One of the most anticipated ECB meetings in history occurred last week, and with it the European crisis entered a new phase. Generally speaking ECB Chief Mario Draghi and the ECB met most of the market’s lofty expectations, as evidenced by market action. Perhaps even more important, the ECB didn’t disappoint by “kicking the can” down the road as European officials have done so many times over the past three years.
The ECB pledged to act forcefully to defend the EU and euro by potentially buying bonds to reduce crisis-hit euro-zone countries’ borrowing costs, which is a good thing. The market didn’t price in the lofty summer rhetoric. But on balance, the announcement gives reason to be more bullish on the markets … still not a reason to run out and buy stocks with both hands.
I say that because …
Last Week’s Signal Was NOT an “All Clear”
There are multiple risks to monitor over the next several weeks in Europe. Here are three of them:
Risk 1 —
Markets will test the ECB
Spain will likely need rescuing first.
First, you can expect markets to test the ECB’s will at some point over the next few weeks by pushing Spanish or Italian yields higher — just to see if the ECB was bluffing on its bond-buying promise. If I had to guess where, I’d bet we’ll see the first intervention in Spain before the end of October, as there remain multiple troubles brewing there.
Risk 2 —
Spain and Italy have to ask
for help before getting it
One of the disappointments of the ECB meeting last week was that more strict conditions were placed on countries who need the ECB to buy their bonds than had been expected. Economists on the Street are referring to this as “conditionality.”
In order for the ECB to buy bonds, Spain and Italy will have to formally request aid and submit to fiscal oversight by the ESM/EFSF and the IMF. That implies some loss of sovereignty (psychologically, anyway), which will make Spanish and Italian politicians less likely to request aid until it’s absolutely necessary.
As an outlier, there’s a chance that both countries won’t request aid. And then it becomes a game of chicken between those countries and the rest of Europe to see who blinks first. Don’t think it can’t happen either — Greece has basically done it twice, and Europe blinked both times.
Risk 3 —
Will bailed-out nations comply?
What happens if Spain or Italy get the bailouts needed, but after a while stop adhering to the fiscal reforms mandated by the EFSF or ESM?
The ECB seems willing to sacrifice the euro to save the EU.
The ECB’s answer was very clear and another area of disappointment: If countries getting aid stop implementing necessary fiscal reforms, bond buying stops immediately — meaning all this could be an enormous waste of time.
The bottom line: If none of those risks mentioned above come to fruition, the ECB announcement last week was a game-changing event in Europe and a reason to think the crisis is nearing an end. But, if any of those risks actually materialize, the consequences are potentially catastrophic. And even if they don’t fully materialize, if they appear to be gaining momentum, markets will fall and fall hard.
One thing we do know from last week’s announcement is that the euro will be sacrificed to keep the EU together. By the ECB choosing to print euros to buy euro-country bonds, it means we’ll see a lower euro over the long term, even though in the short term we could see the euro continue to rally as investors bet the crisis is solved.
A big rally in the euro over the next several weeks could provide a great opportunity to position yourself for the next big move in the currency, which is bound to be lower.
The ProShares Ultra Short Euro (EUO) remains one of the best ways to play the ultimate decline in value of the single currency. This inverse ETF is meant to rise 2 percent for every 1 percent drop in the euro.
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 13:12the answer is here “investors bet the crisis is solved” hahahahah !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 13:28i mean crisis is here and for a longtime !! no solutions !! the day when politics made a gouvernement very “far” from banks we can hope a exit from crisis but with this banks gouv NO SOLUTION
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 13:18lol… yeah…. we’re in the response stage of the Crises, Response, Disappointment and then Crises cycle…….
Bottom line is eventually the euro will become devalued… simple economics… the greater the supply the cheaper the value….
By printing more euros the ECB is essentially following the same path as the FEDS, that being, firing up the presses and churning out the euros
You can bet the news control agencies will be hard at work
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 13:22This whole crises is not accidental by any stretch of the imagination either….. the elitists have long desired a unified banking system and the only way to sell it is to create a situation where the people beg for their solutions…..
Inflation and depreciation are not natural economic occurrences they are created by banks utilizing interest rates to create and then burst bubbles at will
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 13:25@fred !! we have our support in daily signal !! (there we will entry our trad when s is broken :!!! why i entry a short for quick pips draw a line in hourly 2770 low till 28 low another in high 2869 till our high today … you will see price falling !! follw it with 15 or 30 mn in side this chennel (30 and 15 are bearish !! if you want a chart i can send it !!….hope it s clear
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 13:39http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/211/29340971.png/
smile
September 12, 2012 at 13:29Back again front of desk. Shorted from 2925 till 2820 today’s low.
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 13:33drive it @smile
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 14:36pips again !!!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 14:40new entry long gold 1727 !!!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 14:45quick out 1730
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 14:52http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/856/56692358.png/
Upi
September 12, 2012 at 14:53Still short GU and EU.. aim..2825, 2755 and 6004
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 14:56gu we have to broke 6080 area (triangle) aud 0457 0430 possible
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 15:02gu 15 mn !!!http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/253/75235844.png/
Grace
September 12, 2012 at 15:11@johnny, what do u hav 2 say about doc 1 info, in my opinion we are up move,we’ ll be seing pullbacks and not reverse as his info declear.
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 15:53@Grace
My opinion was that we will see a move to 130 before we see real resistance and if this is pierced then 2300/50
We have to get by the FEDS FOMC first and nobody can predict 100% what the outcome will be.
I think the bulls will try to push to the 130 level before recversing
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 15:54sorry 130/50
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 15:23@Grace We have a push down, in fact the first and only one so far on the road to 1,30, at 2946, its there where I will partially cover my profit on my Longs…..But once touched will leave one running as I think we gonna touch 2995
A break below 2850 would worry me a bit but I think we will stay above 2860…..Anyway,,, Staying above 1,28 is fine enough and we will get 1,30 insight for sure….My view !
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 15:25shoot again 2916 18 area ??
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 15:47long aud !!!!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 15:50an abc in 15 !!
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 15:58@Sahara we had a I-H&S on the smallest tf just before….so we should move up a bit….But we need to breach 2910/15 first !
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 15:29@Grace – We stil have that PL on this nice month of september…As well as a Bullish Engulfing on the Daily (on my charts) and a Bullish Hammer on M30….
Its nice to see that most of what I was telling in here is actually becoming reality :-)
We did go up, …. a lot :-)
QE3 baby will be born…..And it seems Europe is slowly getting away with it….Not to much of discussions as of late but just straight actions :-)
Lets see?
Yeoman
September 12, 2012 at 15:50Hello to all,
Back from a long hectic summer.
I’m long @ 2900. Price is in the bottom half of the 5-day channel, and it’s delivered three bullish 1hr candles after a pull back from this mornings high. Channel top is rising through 3015, and price should reach 3000 on bullish momentum before tomorrows US news. PPI and unemployment claims just after NY open and FOMC later.
tp 2977 sl 2850
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 16:00Well Yeoman,,,,Thats good news for the day….will the bad new follow tomorrow
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 16:00@johnny !! abc extension in aud sorry !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 16:01no trad eu now was short closed all with no bad pips !! will buy if a drop for qe3 if !!
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 16:02No prblm Sahara….
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:02@Johnny
I do not recall anyone trying to make you look foolish… I do recall that you did call the bottom correctly and for that congratulations.
I also recall that the only comments werwe that a few hundred pips initially do not warrant a confirmed reversal.
Markets move up and down and sometimes quite illogically however the key is money management and proper sl’s
as trading styles and length of positions held widely differ opinions are bound to differ and it is up to each trader to determine what style and strategy best suits their temperament.
It’s not a question of who’s right or wrong because there is no right or wrong unless you are losing your capital :)
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:03By you I do not mean “you” personally
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 16:05TRUCE !!! @Doc
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:06YES!!!!! Now let’s put our heads together and kick the “Sht” out of this market.
extends my hand in friendship :)
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 16:19Lets see if you wear boots good enough for the kickin’ ? :-) GL
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:28Back at ya :)
My opinion is collectively, that means all of us, we can wield a pretty big ass kickin if we keep our energy’s correctly directed
BeMoreWild
September 12, 2012 at 16:14that should be the spirit…..hats off to both of u:)
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:08However this doesn’t mean that I won’t disagree with you from time to time only respectfully
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 16:11i prefer to be wrong !! but i need that my account take +++ daily !!! tchin !!
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:17Lol… a long time ago a mentor when asked ” Every trade I make goes against me” and
” How can I change this?” told me
“If you are constantly wrong in every trade then become a contrarian trader to your first instinct until you are wrong in your contrarian trading” :)
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 16:20hahahah!! yes !!
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:20Wednesday, September 12, 2012 ⌚10:00 AM
U.S. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES (JUL) ROSE 0.7% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED AND -0.2% PRIOR.
More negative US news as this means there is more unsold products sitting on the shelves
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:25Even though this is a relatively low impact release if we look at the bigger picture it is far reaching…
Less goods sold means more pressure on business which means going out of business or decreasing the number of employees which means more unemployment which means more money spent on entitlements which means less revenue in taxes which means more stimulus needed to prop up the economy which means more dillution to the US$ and so forth and so forth
Johnny
September 12, 2012 at 16:33Have to go out for quite some time…
I do not hope my yesterdays thought will become true, but I fear so….I am spotting a rather major correction in Gold (May be wrong though!) as I mentioned y/day (1650). ?
If so…what will happen to the rest?
Back late at night and will see it all by then…
Enjoy your pips…
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:50My thoughts are gold will hit the 1767 mark before correcting to your predictions Johnny but I do agree that gold is more than ready for a pullback…..
Also watch the Dow for a big decline soon… if you are holding a position then it would be prudent to take the $ and wait for the smoke to clear after the New Year
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:38So I just want to clarify my style of trading…. it has worked for me but may be unsuitable for some…
Basically I am a long term trader yet trade short term around my long term positions…
In order to do this you need to have the ability to hedge…
I do this in several ways depending on how the market is reacting
1. I hold my long term positions which are smaller than my short term positions… this requires going long and short at the same time… If you are a US citizen then you will need 2 accounts to do this as the trade comission banned hedging 2 positions at the same time for US citizens plus closed foreign accounts held…
2. Correlations.. this is trading a risk appetite pair and a risk adverse pair at the same time in the same direction at key breakout levels and then closing 1 or the other once support/resistance is established. It’s important to make sure that the pairs are correlating or this can hurt you badly
3. ETF’s… Ultra Pro Shares Long or Short depending on the direction you are trading
My long term positions are 1/4 of my short term positions which are 1/4 the size of my scalps… SL’s are naturally smallest while scalping and largest while long term
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:43As I stated way back when Johnny called the reversal at 120 I took a hedge with ETF’s against my long term short positions… as this moves 2:1 I actually made money in my ETF hedge even though my long term trade was going against me…
I doubled my earnings on the reversal as my long term short was losing so for the 7k I lost in the reversal I made 14k on the ETF
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:44Had the market actually pierced the 120 line I would have closed my option for a small loss
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 16:48camels heads need a few months to understand this !! but study it and when i will understand it ! will show it !!
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:51I would be more than happy to clarify any fuzzy areas :)
Jim
September 12, 2012 at 16:53Be back shortly
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 16:54@johnny and @doc gold will kiss 1777 ‘hallilouuuya yayayayayay” than a correction 1600 area perhaps 1570 too than a fllllllllllllllllllllllllllllyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy hahahahahahahahah!! words from golden camels by camelsnews and Co !!
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 17:04Iphone coming will bke resistance go …..apple goooooooooooo
Yeoman
September 12, 2012 at 17:19I wouldn’t venture a guess about the news tomorrow, but from the top of this five day channel it wouldn’t take much to get a significant pull back. I will be looking for $ long positions.
For now there is a fourth bullish 1hr candle and lots of time to left to move up.
george
September 12, 2012 at 19:27Hello m new to this trading can you please tell me where buy i enter 13th september for gold and EUR/USD????and where can i find good stuff to read on forex trading as my silver is giving me huge loss for now.
andi
September 12, 2012 at 19:49Gm, GN@All, very long day back from work and hey my God what for YOYO game??? anyway, my 2 shorts from yesterday evening was closed with good profit on both and not other trades as I was not able to trade today, well the whole theater with this Pair in my view will end sooner or later and we will have again all the news Greece, Spain, Italy,Portugal, moody, S&P, downgrading and further as we know it all very well, September and big guys back from vacation and they need to bring this to the top level where they have their sell orders waiting, I guess they are doing this always by November or???
Comment left on:
September 11, 2012 at 14:25
andi says:
Hello @all , thank you @Mark for second analyze today, I was a little lost but fine, again another bully day on Euro, what for a move, was not behind desk and got @Saharaview alert for long 2755 and well got the order nice closing 2830, now playing the short from @Johnny from 2835 and will also keep it run to first 2803 then 2793 and will see any further downside will stay with my short longer
Comment left on:
September 11, 2012 at 16:12
andi says:
opened another short on Euro, 2870 looking for 28250 first, but it seems really this will touch the highest level before any drop, anyway I let these 2 shorts running and cover the losses with GOLD and options have no interest for any long position on Euro even that is wrong
andi
September 12, 2012 at 19:51The whole upside because of a form Triangle on daily basis which made a support line at the moment at 2830-35, and the real target for this Triangle 2 important points 2970 and 1.3000, however as long as this 2830-35 hold the upside or upper levels targets still intact.
andi
September 12, 2012 at 19:532874 seems to be a good Reversal point at the moment , for Asian opening for another back testing 2913 (Breakout high) and R3 2939
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 19:59hi @andi
andi
September 12, 2012 at 20:02Hello @Saharaview, how r u my friend, how was today trade? I am reading your emails now,
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 20:04was not bad !! nothing open now !! we will see tomorrow morning !!
andi
September 12, 2012 at 20:08good news, wish you and all other friends all the best and more pips in the account
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 20:09thanks friend !!!!
andi
September 12, 2012 at 20:00if any short then watch 2885-88 as first TP and possible revere point too, before that 2874 but weak point, and next strong Reversal point at the moment on the lower levels 2819 if pass then 2803 next and 2788 the last point for bulls but not very realistic at the moment, but if uncle ben will not say Q3 tomorrow then we have to be waiting for another scenario for Euro which is more like a Tragedy, so news trading only and no tech these days , GL and hope to se you tomorrow
sahara
September 12, 2012 at 20:12have a good night all see you tomorrow !! (in pro i closed aud it seems a false brkout 4h closing)
andi
September 12, 2012 at 20:15Good Night my friend,
andi
September 12, 2012 at 20:14For Tomorrow, upcoming News NY Time:
12:30pm US FOMC Interest Rate Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
2:15pm US FOMC Press Conference
I am planning for some USD/JPY trade for tomorrow and I hope I will be able to trade if not then tomorrow off for avoiding losses
HarryG
September 12, 2012 at 20:27Hi all
FLAT!
Still have a feeling we’ll see 13000 tomorrow
HarryG
September 12, 2012 at 20:33EU – buy at 12870
EJ – buy at 10020
if you’re lucky
Jim
September 13, 2012 at 00:56Tomorrow should proveto be one of the most volatile days we’ve seen in months….
A $500-600 billion dollar purchase program that targets Treasury and MBS purchases is the baseline. Anything less (no program, a simple extension of rate guidance) would find a market overextended on hope and therefore has to sell off the buildup positions over the past three months – a move that would send the dollar rallying sharply (especially after the recent push from the Moody’s downgrade warning). ‘Beating’ expectations is, alternatively, difficult to do given the conviction of the markets. A proposed ‘open-ended’ stimulus program that sets the amount of support to the ‘need’ (performance of the economy, employment) could offer such a push but follow through will be slow and choppy.
Johnny
September 13, 2012 at 02:18@Doc – Just home from a night job….(No, didnt rob a bank somewhere!)
Agree with you….the FOMC could let it all well shiver and shake this time :-)
Lets fasten our seat belts tightly later on in the day…
Now going to lay myself down for a couple of hours…To early for breakfast here…
Below an article just to your information…..GL
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) – The Euro is currently sleeping quiet in its 1.2895/1.2900 tiny range but everybody expect a storm in the Thursday’s session. In a recent report, Saxo Bank has turned bullish in the Euro, joining HSBC and Westpac analyst teams.
The EUR/USD “could continue to blow higher”, says The Saxo Bank analyst John J Hardy, “well above 1.300 and possibly to the 1.33 to 1.34 range if we have a risk positive outcome,” from tomorrow’s Fed meeting. “With more sideways to eventually downside and a slower position reduction if market risk appetite quickly sours.”
There is two possible scenarios for tomorrow, “strong Euro, weak USD if risk appetite continues higher,” comments Saxo. “And strong Euro, even stronger USD if risk appetite fades.”
Despite the Euro has been extending last week 300 pips rally against the Dollar with the EUR/USD peaking to its 4-month high at 1.2935 in Wednesday’s Asian session, “the situation for the EURUSD is not as clear as it is for the USD in a more isolated sense, particularly vs. riskier currencies. That’s because we’re in the middle (?) of a massive short Euro positioning unwind.”
Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management shares her vision about possible scenarios:
- Low Rates Pledge Extended to Mid 2015 > Dollar Bearish
- Low Rates Pledge Extended Beyond Mid 2015 > Very Dollar Bearish
- Open Ended QE3 > Very Dollar Bearish
- Limited QE3 > Dollar Bearish but Magnitude to Depend on Size and Length of Program
“Since Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, the EUR/USD has risen from a low of 1.2627 to a high of 1.2936 this morning,” points Lien. “We know that this move is not entirely euro driven because USD/JPY also broke 78 this week, dropping to its lowest level in 3 months.”
“Investors are positioning for QE3 and the majority of economists expect the central to ease,” continued Lien. “After last Friday’s surprisingly weak non-farm payrolls report, even the skeptics were convinced that more stimulus is on its way.”
Finally, a day after reaching its highest close since 2007, the Dow Jones industrial Average has reached even fresh higher levels after closing at 13,333.35, 0.07% above opening level. Market has been trading in a positive note after the German court decision to let pass the bill on ESM and all eyes focused on Tomorrow’s Fed policy meeting. Just to reminder, The Swiss National Bank will have its own interest rate decision and it will hold a press release at 7:30 GMT. Market was speculating on possible hike on the EUR/CHF peg in the previous days.
Johnny
September 13, 2012 at 02:22Oh, and by reading the above article over again…..Remember what I ve mentioned just the other day about reaching the Top of the Mountain medium term…..3434 !!! (My view!) :-)
Once I had a nice 2525 nbr. in mind (There was an old song playing that nbr….But I cant find a similar one for 3434 :-)
Now off to bed….See ya later
Johnny
September 13, 2012 at 02:28@Andi, @Doc, @Sahara….and all the other Gang members in here…. (Couldnt resist posting this one too afore closing my eyes….Broker’s News :-))
Just to your information :
September FOMC Meeting
Eric Viloria, CMT, Senior Currency Strategist
Summary Outlook
On Thursday, September 13, at 1230ET/1630GMT, the FOMC will conclude a 2-day meeting and announce its monetary policy decision. Shortly after, at 1400ET/1800GMT, the Fed will release its updated economic projections for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the appropriate path of the federal funds rate over the next several years. A press conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to follow at 1415ET/1815GMT.
The FOMC is expected to keep the policy rate on hold between zero-0.25%, however of much greater importance will be the Fed’s decision regarding further unconventional monetary policy measures. Given the continued weakness in the labor market and the Fed’s frustration with the pace of the recovery, we expect the Fed to provide further accommodation. At the recent Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed his view that the economic situation remains “far from satisfactory” and specifically that “the rate of improvement in the labor market has been painfully slow”. Furthermore, minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting indicated that many members thought that additional stimulus would likely be warranted “fairly soon” unless incoming data indicated a sustainable strengthening in the pace of recovery.
Recent data has shown a deterioration of job growth rather than improvement with August payrolls increasing by only 96K from the prior month’s downwardly revised 141K. Though the unemployment rate declined to 8.1% from 8.3%, the drop was due to a reduction in the labor force participation rate as job seekers give up or retire. With long term inflation expectations relatively stable, the Committee’s focus has been on its mandate to foster maximum employment.
At the minimum, we envisage the Fed to extend the forward guidance on interest rates into 2015 or beyond. More asset purchases including both Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are likely. The devil will be in the details as the size and length of a new bond buying program presents significant uncertainty. With the diminishing impact of each subsequent round of asset purchases, we would think that the Fed may refrain from giving a concrete size for QE3 and favors an open-ended approach which allows for adjustment as needed. This could be done with a program that would make about $50-100B in purchases each month to conclude based on the progress in economic data. Such an approach may emphasize the Fed’s willingness to do what is needed to support the labor market recovery. From an FX perspective, balance sheet expansion by the Fed would likely have a negative impact on the US dollar.
With the market positioned for another round of QE, the risk is for no action by the Fed. This could hurt Bernanke’s credibility as his recent comments indicated his willingness and urgency to act. Bernanke recently said that labor market conditions are a “grave concern” and that “it is important to achieve further progress”. These comments were made before the disappointing August employment report which adds to the prospect of imminent easing.
Market Strategy
The central scenario for an extended forward rate guidance and new round of asset purchases (QE3) is largely priced in. The dollar index has broken below the base of a long term bullish channel and fell below the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The USD has declined to significant lows against many of the major currencies and as such, further declines from current levels may be limited and a rebound could provide the opportunity for more downside. Of note, Treasury yields have remained relatively well supported amid speculation of more Fed stimulus with yields drifting higher recently. As the USD/JPY pair is closely related to US Treasury yields, we envisage a decline in yields on the back of additional easing to correspond to weakness in USD/JPY. USD/JPY recently formed a double bottom around 77.65/70 and has since rebounded slightly. The key upside pivot is the 100-day SMA which is just above the 79.00 figure and while the pair remains below this level we consider further risk to the downside. A convincing break of the double bottom would likely see a move towards prior lows around the 76.00 figure ahead of the Oct. intervention levels of around 75.50. A sustained break above the 100-day SMA would negate our bearish bias.
sahara
September 13, 2012 at 06:13gm @all
Little brown squirrel
September 13, 2012 at 06:55Good mssg from Johnny, thank you.
What I think is that QE3 is not on the table yet as what bunny mentioned in the last meeting even the data do show disappointment. So, wait for the show of FOMC tomorrow.
Johnny
September 13, 2012 at 07:30GM…Just woke up after a few hours of sleep (Not nearly enough and may jump back in?)
2903 and 2909 were Push Ups and seemed they did well but may be breached after all?…..The Market seems as nervous as a thief in the dark :-) I think we may see anohter test of 2930 and then may come down a bit…. Looks like (my Indis) we will see a small pullback….to around 2880 and from there it may bounce up again…..Lets see…Having some breakfast….See ya later…
Jim
September 13, 2012 at 11:38gm all
thanks for the article johnny and I agree… the FEDS may very well surprise and not put QE3 on the table electing to hold this as a trump card for a later date purely for political reasons.
The markets have priced in QE3 but should it come I believe we will rally to 3200/50 before we see a significant pullback
If the market is disappointed then we have a lot of gains to give back.
Once the announcement hits it’s best to let things settle a bit befoire jumping in as the volatility could be wicked
There will be plenty of time to profit
Jim
September 13, 2012 at 12:27One strong reason why QE3 may not come and that’s inflation….
Each time the Fed launched QE in the past, inflation expectations were already low and sinking — below 1 percent in 2008 and early 2009 when the Fed launched QE1 — and under 2 percent when QE2 and Operation Twist began.
But this time around, inflation expectations have been rising, to 2.38 percent today, up from just 2 percent early this year. In other words, inflation expectations appear to be rising on their own … with no need for more QE to do this job.
The only argument the FEDS have for more easing is the dismal unemployment levels and this may not be enough to play that card yet
Guess it doesn’t really matter what we think though as we don’t trade what we think only what we see :)
Jim
September 13, 2012 at 12:53Bad unemployment claims and the market didn’t even flinch… in fact we sold off a bit…
Looking more and more like a sell the news event…. Really important not to jump too quick on the QE3 train
Jim
September 13, 2012 at 13:14Thursday, September 13, 2012 ⌚06:17 AM
French 2012 social security deficit to reach 14.7 billion Euro, Audit says social security debt is unsustainable.