Recap: Sorry about our technical difficulties yesterday with the free EU signal! While PRO members were able to read the EU signal just fine there was an error message being displayed on our main page for free users. We apologize and it should be sorted out now!
Our short from yesterday got 25 pips into the profit before reversing on us to hit our trailing SL for a 25 pip loss.
The pair is back where it started today (1.2760) and appears that investors are willing to call this area fair price for the time being. Probably not because they actually believe this is fair price but because of the uncertainty of the eurozone equation they are at a loss of how many Euros they should sell from their portfolio.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue May 22 |
08:30 | GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| 08:30 | GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.0% | 2.5% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: We are going to establish another aggressive short at current price (1.2760) as we are still bearish and our aggressive rising support was just punctured. Short targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
We will also get long on another resistance break though we will move our SL early and often to minimize risk.
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Recap: We didn’t enter any new positions Friday, as promised, as the markets were predictably volatile and thin before the weekend.
The EU did begin to peel upwards a bit Friday in a bearish consolidation pattern and, given the 630 pip down movement since May 1, our main technical forecast is still for more bearish action down to at least 1.25.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We are going to establish a short at current price (1.2750), which is an aggressive move given the bullish blast from Friday, but the pair appears to have just crossed a support line. Our targets are at 20/20/25/25. We will close and get long on a resistance break if the pair does not get at least 20 pips into the profit on this current 4h candle.
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Recap: Our short from yesterday was triggered on the 10:18 support break, which closed well below our support so we kept the short open (instead of closing it as a false break). Patience has paid off as the pair is currently 50 pips in the profit and appears to still be bearish. With the weekend fast approaching we will close out at 50 pips profit.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri May 18 |
06:00 | EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR) | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
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Trading Idea: We will not open up any new positions before the weekend, but we are still bearish on the pair as it is in a clear technical downtrend thanks to the bad news re-circulating about the PIIGS (remember them?). If we were in the markets today we would look to for reasons to get short on rallies, bearish candlesticks or support breaks.
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Recap: We stayed flat yesterday on EU as no support formed and the pair’s technical outlook was mixed at best, which is why price action simply consolidated and barely moved all day.
The pair is still in a clear technical downtrend and the question, as always in forex, is when will this turn around (or, in other words, how long will this trend continue)? Luckily with swing trading we don’t need to guess – we will just trade what the charts give us. In this case we will take either a short on a support break or a long on a resistance break.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We will take either a short on a support break or a long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/20/20 for a long (we are more bearish) and 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit on a short.
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Recap: We took Tuesday’s long trade on the chin for -50 pips as the pair broke our resistance level and then almost immediately continued downward. We were bearish on the pair, as we stated, but thought the oversold hourlies would provide us enough of a platform to bank some long pips.
Today the pair is still very bearish looking technically, thanks to the fundamental outlook in Europe, but the large stab downward yesterday has the characteristics of an extinction candle. Combined with the 04:00 hammer candle that occurred at the bottom of that dip and we may finally be seeing a bit of a curl upward. Unfortunately there are not any good S/R lines to swing trade off of at the moment.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed May 16 |
08:30 | GBP Jobless Claims Change (APR) | 5.0K | 3.6K |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (APR) | 1.5% | 1.6% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.6% | ||
| 09:30 | GBP Bank of England Inflation Report | |||
| 18:00 | Fed Releases Minutes from April 24-25 FOMC Meeting | |||
| 23:50 | JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) | 1.0% | -0.5% | |
| 23:50 | JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P) | 3.5% | -0.7% | |
| 23:50 | JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) | 0.9% | -0.2% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: We will wait for a clear rising support to form (not yet shown) and then get short on a support break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. PRO emails will be sent on a support break.
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