Recap: Sorry about our technical difficulties yesterday with the free EU signal! While PRO members were able to read the EU signal just fine there was an error message being displayed on our main page for free users. We apologize and it should be sorted out now!
Our short from yesterday got 25 pips into the profit before reversing on us to hit our trailing SL for a 25 pip loss.
The pair is back where it started today (1.2760) and appears that investors are willing to call this area fair price for the time being. Probably not because they actually believe this is fair price but because of the uncertainty of the eurozone equation they are at a loss of how many Euros they should sell from their portfolio.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue May 22 |
08:30 | GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| 08:30 | GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.0% | 2.5% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: We are going to establish another aggressive short at current price (1.2760) as we are still bearish and our aggressive rising support was just punctured. Short targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
We will also get long on another resistance break though we will move our SL early and often to minimize risk.
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Recap: We didn’t enter any new positions Friday, as promised, as the markets were predictably volatile and thin before the weekend.
The EU did begin to peel upwards a bit Friday in a bearish consolidation pattern and, given the 630 pip down movement since May 1, our main technical forecast is still for more bearish action down to at least 1.25.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We are going to establish a short at current price (1.2750), which is an aggressive move given the bullish blast from Friday, but the pair appears to have just crossed a support line. Our targets are at 20/20/25/25. We will close and get long on a resistance break if the pair does not get at least 20 pips into the profit on this current 4h candle.
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Recap: Our short from yesterday was triggered on the 10:18 support break, which closed well below our support so we kept the short open (instead of closing it as a false break). Patience has paid off as the pair is currently 50 pips in the profit and appears to still be bearish. With the weekend fast approaching we will close out at 50 pips profit.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri May 18 |
06:00 | EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR) | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
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Trading Idea: We will not open up any new positions before the weekend, but we are still bearish on the pair as it is in a clear technical downtrend thanks to the bad news re-circulating about the PIIGS (remember them?). If we were in the markets today we would look to for reasons to get short on rallies, bearish candlesticks or support breaks.
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Recap: We stayed flat yesterday on EU as no support formed and the pair’s technical outlook was mixed at best, which is why price action simply consolidated and barely moved all day.
The pair is still in a clear technical downtrend and the question, as always in forex, is when will this turn around (or, in other words, how long will this trend continue)? Luckily with swing trading we don’t need to guess – we will just trade what the charts give us. In this case we will take either a short on a support break or a long on a resistance break.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We will take either a short on a support break or a long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/20/20 for a long (we are more bearish) and 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit on a short.
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Recap: We took Tuesday’s long trade on the chin for -50 pips as the pair broke our resistance level and then almost immediately continued downward. We were bearish on the pair, as we stated, but thought the oversold hourlies would provide us enough of a platform to bank some long pips.
Today the pair is still very bearish looking technically, thanks to the fundamental outlook in Europe, but the large stab downward yesterday has the characteristics of an extinction candle. Combined with the 04:00 hammer candle that occurred at the bottom of that dip and we may finally be seeing a bit of a curl upward. Unfortunately there are not any good S/R lines to swing trade off of at the moment.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed May 16 |
08:30 | GBP Jobless Claims Change (APR) | 5.0K | 3.6K |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (APR) | 1.5% | 1.6% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.6% | ||
| 09:30 | GBP Bank of England Inflation Report | |||
| 18:00 | Fed Releases Minutes from April 24-25 FOMC Meeting | |||
| 23:50 | JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) | 1.0% | -0.5% | |
| 23:50 | JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P) | 3.5% | -0.7% | |
| 23:50 | JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) | 0.9% | -0.2% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: We will wait for a clear rising support to form (not yet shown) and then get short on a support break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. PRO emails will be sent on a support break.
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Recap: No EU trades were entered yesterday as the pair continued to fall and never broke above it’s resistance level to triggered our long.
Our analysis and setups are very similar to yesterday as not a whole lot has changed: the pair is in a nice technical downtrend with consistent lower lows and lower highs. Fundamentally this downtrend has been brought about by the recent Greek political woes and the increased likelihood of a Greek exit from the Eurozone. While this gives the charts a short and medium term bearish outlook, the hourlies are very oversold at the moment and we will take a short-term long on a resistance break.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue May 15 |
01:30 | AUD Reserve Bank Board May Minutes | ||
| 05:30 | EUR French Consumer Price Index MoM (APR) | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 05:30 | EUR French Consumer Price Index YoY (APR) | 2.2% | 2.3% | |
| 06:00 | EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q P) | 0.9% | ||
| 06:00 | EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P) | 0.1% | -0.2% | |
| 06:00 | EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P) | 0.8% | ||
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q A) | -0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q A) | -0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 09:00 | EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY) | 19 | 23.4 | |
| 12:30 | USD Advance Retail Sales (APR) | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR) | 2.3% | 2.3% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.4% | 2.7% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
No shortage of new today!
Trading Idea: Despite our bearish outlook we will take an aggressive long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
We will look to close and get short on a support break with targets at 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit.
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Recap: We took two trades on Thursday (no trades on Friday) – our first short on the support break was closed out for a 30 pip loss as the entry candle closed above support (false break). The second support break at 19:18 UTC on Thursday got 40 pips into the profit before reversing and hitting our tightened SL for 10 pips profit, for a grand total of a 20 pip loss on Thursday.
Technically there is a very clear downtrend, which is the result of Greece continuing to be the major fundamental driver behind the Euro’s losses. We are bearish on the pair but the oversold nature will give us an opportunity to get long in the short-term.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We are treating Friday’s resistance break as a false break and will look to get long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips (closing the weekend gap). If a support forms we will look to get short on that support break (PRO emails will be sent out).
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Recap: No trades from yesterday’s EU signal were triggered as the pair has flirted with the falling resistance but never broke it.
The resistance is still intact but we are bearish on the Euro at the moment as Eurozone confidence appears to be about to take a large drop among investors (more so than it already has). Germany and Greece are playing a game of chicken over the bailout package after the latest Greek elections, and the threat of a partial EU breakup seems to be more real now than it has been at any time this year.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu May 10 |
01:30 | AUD Employment Change (APR) | -5.0K | 37.6K |
| 01:30 | AUD Unemployment Rate (APR) | 5.3% | 5.2% | |
| 08:00 | EUR ECB Publishes May Monthly Report | |||
| 11:00 | GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY) | 325B | 325B | |
| 11:00 | GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 10) | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
| 14:00 | GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate | 0.1% | ||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: Our primary trade today is a short on a support break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. As much as we’d love to ignore the long opportunity today given our bearish fundamental outlook we will also look to get long on a resistance break (if it occurs before the support break!) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips. We will look to close and get short if a support break occurs on our long.
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Recap: Our long was triggered yesterday at 17:45 on a resistance break, which got 20 pips into the profit. The entry candle then closed below our resistance (false break), which caused us to close the long for a 20 pip loss.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We are bearish on the pair fundamentally as the high risk events in Europe and across the globe should drive demand for the USD, but we are still tracking a nice falling resistance on the oversold hourlies and will look to get long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips.
We will look to close and get short on a support break with the same targets.
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Recap: No trades entered Friday or yesterday as the charts were too mixed for us to feel particularly confident in any single direction or setup. Fundamentally today the markets are as crazy as they get: the Greek coalition government lost its grip in the latest public polls (the party responsible for the bailout and the resulting austerity measures), 12 of 17 EMU governments have been replaced by collapse or election in the past 2 years (read: public disapproval and resentment) and the Bank of Japan admitted to buying $500 million worth equities yesterday (which still failed to prevent the sharp drop in the Nikkei).
So what does that mean for us currency traders? In short: risk off. And when risk is off perceived “safe” or “reserve” currencies such as the USD benefit, as we are now witnessing.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue May 8 |
09:30 | Australian Government Unveils 2012-13 Budget | ||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: Given the USD strength and bearish technicals we are still bearish and primarily looking for reasons to get short. That being said we’ve seen a decent falling resistance form and we will take an aggressive long on a resistance break (perhaps to close the weekend gap?) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit. We will move the SL early and often and look to close and get short on when a support line forms / breaks with the same targets.
Don’t forget to answer the poll today (below)!
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Yesterday PRO Performance
Pair Result EURUSD -25 pips AUDUSD -25 pips GBPUSD No trades USDCHF No trades USDJPY No trades Daily Total: -50 pips Feb 2012 664 pips Mar 2012 755 pips Apr 2012 297 pips May 2012 (mtd) 69 pips *Signal results from 2012-05-21. Looking for month-by-month performance breakdown?
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