Recap: All targets were hit on long from yesterday for 90 pips, after the long was triggered at 1.3032 on the resistance break. PRO emails were sent out at 12:33 UTC on the trigger. We welcome a strong start to the week after last week’s choppy price action prevented us from putting too much profit in our pockets :).
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Apr 17 |
01:30 | AUD Reserve Bank Board April Minutes | ||
| 08:30 | GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| 08:30 | GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) | 2.3% | 2.4% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (MAR) | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| 09:00 | EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR) | 19.0 | 22.3 | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Plenty of news coming out of Europe today, but nothing too earth-shattering in our opinion and we will continue with business as normal. The pair has been making nice, large up and down swings – perfect for our swing trade style which paid off yesterday across the pairs we trade.
With a potential bullish flat formation being formed on the 4h charts we will look to take an aggressive long on a resistance break to start our day, while also looking for reasons to get short if a rising support forms and is broken.
Trading Idea: We are looking to get long on a resistance break (pro email signals will be sent out) with targets at 20/20/20/25 for 85 pips profit. As mentioned above we will look to close and get short if a support line forms and is broken.
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Recap: Every once in awhile we really wish we traded Fridays – and last Friday was definitely one of those times. We were technically and fundamentally bearish, we had the correct support drawn, and the market responded with a nice almost 200 pip drop right on queue.
We won’t complain too much though – our “no-friday-trading” rule has prevented us from taking unnecessary losses many times over the years and it fits nicely with our “we’d rather miss out than miss our equity” philosophy :).
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Apr 16 |
12:30 | USD Advance Retail Sales (MAR) | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
After the large drop Friday and this morning we are technically extremely bearish on the pair and will be looking for reasons to sell as our primary trade. However the pair is oversold on the hourlies and has formed a nice aggressive falling resistance that will provide a nice entry point for a long consolidation play.
Trading Idea: We will look to take an aggressive long off of a resistance break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will tighten our SL early and often and look to get into our more conservative trade, a short, on a support break if one develops (pro signals will be sent out if it does get triggered).
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Recap: We are glad for this week to be over as the pair has shaved through our support several times only to bounce back up. For those swing traders taking the bounce this has been very profitable, but we have been looking for the break which led to a small loss earlier this week (in EU) but led to a 50 pip loss yesterday. Losing is always a part of trading strategy (and honestly is more important to have a strategy for dealing with losses than wins. Wins are easy to deal with :), and we continue to keep our losses small and let our profits run :)
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Apr 13 |
06:00 | EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR F) | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 06:00 | EUR German Consumer Price Index – EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR F) | 2.3% | 2.3% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) | 2.7% | 2.9% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAR) | 2.2% | 2.2% | |
| 13:55 | USD U. of Michigan Confidence (APR P) | 76.5 | 76.2 | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Lots of news today, plus it is Friday so we will sit on the sidelines. That aside for aggressive traders we expect a bearish reversal today as the pair appears to have made an extinction burst yesterday.
Trading Idea: We are flat for the day, but are bearish on the pair at this point.
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Recap: We tried two different shorts yesterday on two different support breaks, both of which were closed out for very small losses (5 pips and 15 pips for a 20 pip loss on this pair) after they closed above the support (false breaks). Keep your losses small and let your profits run :).
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Apr 12 |
01:30 | AUD Employment Change (MAR) | 6.5K | -15.4K |
| 01:30 | AUD Unemployment Rate (MAR) | 5.3% | 5.2% | |
| 05:30 | EUR French Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR) | 0.6% | 0.4% | |
| 05:30 | EUR French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) | 2.1% | 2.3% | |
| 08:00 | EUR ECB Publishes April Monthly Report | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
EU continues to slowly consolidate in an upward channel after dropping nearly 400 pips from 1.34 and bouncing hard off of 1.30. While we are ultimately bearish on the pair, technically, the devil is always in the details and the timing of the trade remains a question. We can’t rule out a higher consolidation 1.33 or even another challenge to 1.34 so we will continue to trade the shorter term S/R lines with a leaning to shorts.
Trading Idea: We will try our short again on a clear break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. On a break we will look to close and get long on a resistance break (if one forms) as long as price stays above 1.3050.
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Recap: Late signal today (not quite an “intraday signal”) as our rising support for EU has just developed – in fact setups on all pairs but UJ have develope. No trades entered yesterday as our support line only recently formed and has not broken yet.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous | No news that we consider HIGH importance for Wed Apr 11. |
|---|---|---|---|
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
The pair is still consolidating in a volatile and bearish pattern after the double top of late March (just under 1.3400) made the pair drop almost 400 pips. 1.30 remains a technically and psychologically important barrier and, while we expect it to be broken this month, there is also nothing preventing another rally to the 1.33 or ever 1.34 range beforehand.
Trading Idea: Our rising support finally formed and we are looking to get short on a support break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
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What is an “Intraday Update”? 2-3 times a month we do an intraday update, usually if there are no good setups to trade during the 6a-8a UTC time period we normally publish analysis. This allows the charts to develop a bit more and, hopefully, produce a higher probability setup for us to share with you.
Recap: No trades taken yesterday due to Easter creating thin market conditions in many countries around the globe.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Apr 10 |
03:09 | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 10) | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
The pair has been extremely volatile since early April as the market participants try and determine how to react to “the Bernank” (Bernanke) and his news that further money printing is on hold for the time being.
General feelings on the street are that there is no way that the US can avoid another QE3, especially with problems in other PIIGS countries starting to come to a head.
Technically the pair appears to be in a sloppy bearish flag pattern, meaning we are bearish in general and would look for opportunities to sell.
Trading Idea: We are waiting for a clean support line to form and break so that we can get short on a higher probability setup (flat for now), however we are bearish on the pair in general and would look for opportunities to fade rallies (sell on 4h highs) if we weren’t swing trading.
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No Signal today for Easter monday! Banks are open but most major players and many corporations have the day off so we expect the volume and price movement to be limited. We will pick up first thing tomorrow morning. For PRO members we have drawn S/R lines so swing alerts will continue to go out.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous | No news that we consider HIGH importance for Mon Apr 09. |
|---|---|---|---|
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
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Recap: All targets hit on our short on the support break (pro emails sent out at 8:28 UTC) at 1.3133 for 90 pips profit.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Apr 6 |
12:30 | USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAR) | 205K | 227K |
| 12:30 | USD Unemployment Rate (MAR) | 8.3% | 8.3% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Non farm payrolls are coming out today, along with the usual unemployment rate for the US. Add to that the fact that it is Friday (low volume high volatility) and we will step aside for the day.
Trading Idea: We are flat for the day, for the reasons given above, but if we were in the markets we would continue looking to get short on a support break with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit.
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Recap: No trades taken yesterday as the pair never broke the fallen resistance line that we were tracking. We’d rather miss out than miss our equity, however, so that sits fine with us.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Apr 5 |
11:00 | GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR) | 325B | 325B |
| 11:00 | GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 5) | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
| 14:00 | GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (MAR) | 0.1% | ||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
The pair has fallen hundreds of pips since the Fed announced it was going to be easing its liquidity programs (i.e. no QE3 on the horizon), dropping from just below 1.34 to just above 1.31. Recently price has begun to curl up in a bearish consolidation flag pattern, and we will look to get short again on a support break.
Trading Idea: We are looking to get short on a support break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
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Recap: Our short was activated at 1.33 on the support break yesterday (pro email signals sent out at 14:21 UTC) and came within 5 pips of hitting our 50 pip SL! Luckily it was just enough and we were able to quickly hit all targets for 95 pips profit. Remember – let your profits run and keep your losses small!
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Apr 4 |
09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) | -1.1% | 0.0% |
| 11:45 | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4) | 1.00% | 1.00% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
The fed “announced” that it would not be providing further quantitative easing (money printing) in the near future as the markets have improved enough / inflation is enough of a concern to not warrant further liquidity at the time being.
The news is still bouncing around the markets, and had the immediate effect of rallying the USD in nearly all pairs (e.g. the big drop in EU). We believe this is a bearish break of the daily bearish consolidation pattern we have been watching bounce upward for weeks now and will be looking fr opportunities to get short.
Trading Idea: There is not currently a good short opportunity on the charts as the pair is oversold on the hourlies without a good support line to trade off of. We will wait for a support to form and break for an opportunity to get short with targets at 20/20/20/25 for 85 pips profit. PRO users will be emailed.
There is an aggressive falling resistance currently (last blue line) but, given the bearish break yesterday and the steep slope, we will pass on getting long on a resistance break. For aggressive traders that resistance break would provide a good entry point for a long.
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Yesterday PRO Performance
Pair Result EURUSD No trades AUDUSD -6 pips GBPUSD No trades USDCHF No trades USDJPY No trades Daily Total: -6 pips Feb 2012 664 pips Mar 2012 755 pips Apr 2012 297 pips May 2012 (mtd) 14 pips *Signal results from 2012-05-16. Looking for month-by-month performance breakdown?
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