Happy Fourth of July to all US piphutters! US Banks are closed today and markets are more or less predicted to drag along. We’ll pick up tomorrow with a new signal and analysis for all pairs.

Happy pipping :)

-PipHut

… is now in your PRO dashboard. We have added more setups with more S/R trend lines in gold to each chart. Please leave any feedback you have on the new addition below.

Many banks across the world are closed today due to Good Friday. Markets are expected to be razor-thin and we do not expect them to move very much, therefore there will be no signal today.

It’s been a great week of trading, both for the free EU signal but especially for the GU, AU, UJ and UCHF in the PRO Analysis section – if you haven’t joined already you should seriously consider joining us in PRO this next week. CandlePRO will continue to operate as normal throughout the day.

Cheers, and we will see everyone next week :).

The following is the full Fed statement following the January meeting:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, while investment in nonresidential structures is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

No free signal today. Analysis would have been same as Friday: short term bullish but ready for a bearish turn around.

Signal will be back tomorrow!

Happy Pipping!

Mark

P.S. link to Part 2 of the CP strategies article here

This is a re-post of today’s signal for new comments. Please start commenting on this post as the last one was acting funny.

Recap: Welcome to another Friday PipHutters! I took a double lot short position yesterday at 1.3265 on a 2h doji with a stop-loss trailing down on the outside of falling resistance (orange line below) and a eventual target back down to 1.3175 for 90 pips. I closed out half of that position at 1.3225 for 40 pips with the remaining lot running risk-free.

Daily Outlook: Looming over the Euro we have the credit downgrades of Greece, Spain and Portugal from earlier this week (which drove the price down over 200 pips). On top of that Moody’s yesterday said that unless Greek aid became less “fragmented” – referring to Germany’s reluctance to publicly and vocally commit – more downgrades would be coming. Such downgrades would undoubtedly push down the EUR/USD.

Reflecting that on the charts the pair is currently caught within two bearish channels – one visible easily on the 1h and 4h charts (orange lines on chart below) and the other is visible on the daily charts and higher (blue lines below). Given this combination of fundamentals and technicals I will continue to look for opportunities to sell.

I have a hunch that smart money will look to shed risk going into the weekend, meaning EURUSD losses, to limit exposure to any bad Euro news over the weekend.

Trading Idea: It is Friday and, as usual, I most likely will not open any new positions today. I do still have my short from 1.3265 open targeting 1.3175 now. If I was looking to reset or add to my short position my primary trade would be to short in the resistance zone of 1.3275-1.3300 (around the falling orange resistance line on chart below) with targets at 1.3255, 1.3225, 1.3200 and 1.3175 (for 100-125 pips profit).

Happy pipping all and check your email this weekend for a new function I’m rolling out called “trading groups”! As always, never trade more than you can afford to lose and always be smart. If I had to give one word of advice to beginning traders it would be to trade less, less less. You don’t need to be in the market all the time and nor should you be -  be selective, be patient and take good setups with good risk/rewards only.

Quick Links:

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
FAQ on these signals
Forex Candlestick Alerts
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forex Forums

Recap: Near perfect day of trading yesterday on the EURUSD as I booked 185 pips off my signals and analysis. First up was my short signal from 1.3380 yesterday, which I entered shortly after posting the signal after the pair rose a bit and allowed me to get a decent risk /reward ratio while hiding my stop above 1.3415. First lot closed at 1.3315 and I manually closed the second at 1.3335 after the bullish gravestone doji at 12:00 GMT on 4h charts for 110 pips.

I then looked for the aggressive long after the gravestone doji just pierced my aggressive signal support at 1.3315. I was concerned that I would not get to enter – the doji closed at 1.3335 and I was not going to enter that high as I could not hide my stop loss under 1.3290 and still get a solid risk/reward ratio at that level – but the priced dropped far enough to trigger my buy at 1.3320. That lots TP was eventually hit just under the strong 1.3400 resistance at 1.3395 for 75 pips profit.

Daily Outlook: Signals are a bit more mixed today as the pair closed a bit more bullish on the day but failed to close above 1.3400 resistance on both the 4h and daily charts. It nearly formed a bearish  hanging man on the daily charts but the body is too big. Yesterday I was leaning bearish on the pair because of the bearish candlesticks on the 4h and today I am literally about 60/40 with a slight lean toward the bulls.

On a side note this a great example of how technical analysis is supposed to show the fundamentals: right now fundamentalists are mixed on Germany’s latest reaction to the possible Greek bailout, the financial overhaul and the positive US economic news and that is showing on the charts with mixed candlesticks, broken support/resistance and random ranges.

Trading Idea: I will continue with the same trade plan as yesterday – I will look for shorting opportunities under 1.3400 (with additional candlestick confirmation – yesterday’s don’t count!) as long as there is no sustained break above 1.3400 (close on 4h). Keeping stop tight and will not enter unless I can get a solid risk/reward ratio – I’m not about to throw away my hard-earned pips from yesterday. Short targets from 1.3400 same as yesterday – 1.3375, 1.3340, 1.3315 for 85 pips profit.

I will also look for a long opportunity around 1.3315-1.3290 and a long on a sustained break above 1.3400 (on 4h charts). Signals are very mixed right now piphutters – wait for confirmation and good risk/reward setups. Patience pays.

(click to enlarge)

P.S. Sorry if I’ve been slow in responding to emails or missed some comments recently. I’ve been very, very busy with some services I’ll be rolling out in the next few weeks, and that effort has been hampered with trying to keep up with the popularity of the new friends features. I’m glad everyone is loving PipHut so much but remember that I am a one-man show at the moment (except for all the PipHut regulars, who I love dearly for helping out with beginner questions!!!)

Quick Links:

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
FAQ on these signals
Forex Candlestick Alerts
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forex Forums

One of the hardest things, I think, about being a new forex trader is that it can be very lonely.

Especially if you are doing it full time. It’s hard to stare at your computer screen for 8, 12 hours with little in the way of breaks or social contact! That was one of the reasons PipHut was started in the first place – to help build a community where traders could get to know each other and learn from each other. Well we’ve taken another step forward as a community this weekend with the addition of the new “Friends” feature. And, in typical PipHut fashion, it’s all free!

What is so cool about this “Friends” feature?

1) Extended profiles – Get to know your fellow PipHutters and express yourself a little! Once you sign up you’ll be able to create a profile and share who you are, how you trade and see other’s profiles as well.

Take a look at my profile here.

*For my profile pic I figured pandas eat bamboo, huts are made of bamboo, Pip”Hut”… it is ok to have a little fun with it ;)

2) Status Updates - Want to know if your friends are long or short? Trading for the day or not? Just check out there latest status update to see. You can also update your own status to let others know what pairs you are looking at.

See an example status update here.

Once you are signed up and logged in you can update your status from any PipHut.com page with the  new “Update Your Status” box in the lower right nav.

3) Make Friends - Once you are signed up and logged in you’ll be able “friend” people, similar to “friending” in facebook and “following” in Twitter. You can friend me as soon as you sign up. Just go to my profile, click “Add Friend” and I’ll approve you! Once we’re friends you’ll be able to follow my updates, and see when I am online in the lower right of any PipHut.com page just like the image below:

4) Private messages – send private messages to any other member. If you get a new private message you’ll get an email notice so you won’t miss anything.

5) Post comments show up in activity stream - This is perhaps my favorite feature. With the setup of the current blog I end up answering a lot of the same questions as new users keep coming to PipHut. Unfortunately I can’t just saw “I answered that question two weeks ago in the comments, go find it”. But now I can just point people to my activity stream and they can view ALL my status updates and ALL of the comments I’ve made on any of my signals.

Check out my activity stream here.

6) Talk @ people – you can now use the @ symbol in front of someone’s username to include them in on a comment, in your status updates, in blog comments, or both. This is a lot like the twitter functionality. So for example I could type “@piphut – did you see that shooting star??” and that message would show up in the @ mentions.

7) Lots more – there are a lot of cool features about this and I don’t have the time to go through them, so instead sign up and explore it for yourself! To sign up hit the big “sign up” buttom below or click “sign up” on the black bar above (you can also log in and navigate the new features from that black bar)

8) Did I mention it is free? ;)

IMPORTANT: When you register make sure your “username” and “email” are LOWERCASE!!

Click here and signup now! >

P.S. Just a warning that is in the beta phase – meaning there might be bugs and I need you to let me know what they are so I can fix them!

Slow day yesterday – in the markets and in the forums. The pair only moved 15 pips from open to close, and it was one of the least volatile days in recent history moving less than 100 pips from high to low. Traders didn’t have much to talk about either with not trades being entered!

Daily Outlook: The pair continues to consolidate in the1.3750-1.3450 range, coming closer and closer to our key falling trend resistance dating back to early December 2009. The last time this resistance was tested (January 13th) the pair flirted with the resistance a few times before ultimately plummeting over 900 pips. Also reinforcing the bearish picture is that bulls were unable to sustain their new rally, failing to make a new high on the day or even sustain their gains (in fact the day ended as a bearish candle with a long bearish wick).

Trading Idea: I will look to sell a challenge of this trend resistance line, currently between 1.3700-1.3730. From 1.3730 the short targets are 1.3700, 1.3665, 1.3625 and 1.3595.

Quick Links:

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
FAQ on these signals
Forex Candlestick Alerts
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forex Forums