Recap: We stayed flat yesterday on EU as no support formed and the pair’s technical outlook was mixed at best, which is why price action simply consolidated and barely moved all day.
The pair is still in a clear technical downtrend and the question, as always in forex, is when will this turn around (or, in other words, how long will this trend continue)? Luckily with swing trading we don’t need to guess – we will just trade what the charts give us. In this case we will take either a short on a support break or a long on a resistance break.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We will take either a short on a support break or a long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/20/20 for a long (we are more bearish) and 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit on a short.
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Recap: We took Tuesday’s long trade on the chin for -50 pips as the pair broke our resistance level and then almost immediately continued downward. We were bearish on the pair, as we stated, but thought the oversold hourlies would provide us enough of a platform to bank some long pips.
Today the pair is still very bearish looking technically, thanks to the fundamental outlook in Europe, but the large stab downward yesterday has the characteristics of an extinction candle. Combined with the 04:00 hammer candle that occurred at the bottom of that dip and we may finally be seeing a bit of a curl upward. Unfortunately there are not any good S/R lines to swing trade off of at the moment.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed May 16 |
08:30 | GBP Jobless Claims Change (APR) | 5.0K | 3.6K |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (APR) | 1.5% | 1.6% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.6% | ||
| 09:30 | GBP Bank of England Inflation Report | |||
| 18:00 | Fed Releases Minutes from April 24-25 FOMC Meeting | |||
| 23:50 | JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) | 1.0% | -0.5% | |
| 23:50 | JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P) | 3.5% | -0.7% | |
| 23:50 | JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) | 0.9% | -0.2% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: We will wait for a clear rising support to form (not yet shown) and then get short on a support break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. PRO emails will be sent on a support break.
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Recap: No EU trades were entered yesterday as the pair continued to fall and never broke above it’s resistance level to triggered our long.
Our analysis and setups are very similar to yesterday as not a whole lot has changed: the pair is in a nice technical downtrend with consistent lower lows and lower highs. Fundamentally this downtrend has been brought about by the recent Greek political woes and the increased likelihood of a Greek exit from the Eurozone. While this gives the charts a short and medium term bearish outlook, the hourlies are very oversold at the moment and we will take a short-term long on a resistance break.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue May 15 |
01:30 | AUD Reserve Bank Board May Minutes | ||
| 05:30 | EUR French Consumer Price Index MoM (APR) | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 05:30 | EUR French Consumer Price Index YoY (APR) | 2.2% | 2.3% | |
| 06:00 | EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q P) | 0.9% | ||
| 06:00 | EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P) | 0.1% | -0.2% | |
| 06:00 | EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P) | 0.8% | ||
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q A) | -0.2% | -0.3% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q A) | -0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 09:00 | EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY) | 19 | 23.4 | |
| 12:30 | USD Advance Retail Sales (APR) | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR) | 2.3% | 2.3% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) | 2.4% | 2.7% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
No shortage of new today!
Trading Idea: Despite our bearish outlook we will take an aggressive long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
We will look to close and get short on a support break with targets at 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit.
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Recap: We took two trades on Thursday (no trades on Friday) – our first short on the support break was closed out for a 30 pip loss as the entry candle closed above support (false break). The second support break at 19:18 UTC on Thursday got 40 pips into the profit before reversing and hitting our tightened SL for 10 pips profit, for a grand total of a 20 pip loss on Thursday.
Technically there is a very clear downtrend, which is the result of Greece continuing to be the major fundamental driver behind the Euro’s losses. We are bearish on the pair but the oversold nature will give us an opportunity to get long in the short-term.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We are treating Friday’s resistance break as a false break and will look to get long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips (closing the weekend gap). If a support forms we will look to get short on that support break (PRO emails will be sent out).
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Recap: No trades from yesterday’s EU signal were triggered as the pair has flirted with the falling resistance but never broke it.
The resistance is still intact but we are bearish on the Euro at the moment as Eurozone confidence appears to be about to take a large drop among investors (more so than it already has). Germany and Greece are playing a game of chicken over the bailout package after the latest Greek elections, and the threat of a partial EU breakup seems to be more real now than it has been at any time this year.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu May 10 |
01:30 | AUD Employment Change (APR) | -5.0K | 37.6K |
| 01:30 | AUD Unemployment Rate (APR) | 5.3% | 5.2% | |
| 08:00 | EUR ECB Publishes May Monthly Report | |||
| 11:00 | GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY) | 325B | 325B | |
| 11:00 | GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 10) | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
| 14:00 | GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate | 0.1% | ||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: Our primary trade today is a short on a support break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. As much as we’d love to ignore the long opportunity today given our bearish fundamental outlook we will also look to get long on a resistance break (if it occurs before the support break!) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips. We will look to close and get short if a support break occurs on our long.
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Recap: Our long was triggered yesterday at 17:45 on a resistance break, which got 20 pips into the profit. The entry candle then closed below our resistance (false break), which caused us to close the long for a 20 pip loss.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| There are no events scheduled. | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
Trading Idea: We are bearish on the pair fundamentally as the high risk events in Europe and across the globe should drive demand for the USD, but we are still tracking a nice falling resistance on the oversold hourlies and will look to get long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips.
We will look to close and get short on a support break with the same targets.
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Recap: No trades entered Friday or yesterday as the charts were too mixed for us to feel particularly confident in any single direction or setup. Fundamentally today the markets are as crazy as they get: the Greek coalition government lost its grip in the latest public polls (the party responsible for the bailout and the resulting austerity measures), 12 of 17 EMU governments have been replaced by collapse or election in the past 2 years (read: public disapproval and resentment) and the Bank of Japan admitted to buying $500 million worth equities yesterday (which still failed to prevent the sharp drop in the Nikkei).
So what does that mean for us currency traders? In short: risk off. And when risk is off perceived “safe” or “reserve” currencies such as the USD benefit, as we are now witnessing.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue May 8 |
09:30 | Australian Government Unveils 2012-13 Budget | ||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: Given the USD strength and bearish technicals we are still bearish and primarily looking for reasons to get short. That being said we’ve seen a decent falling resistance form and we will take an aggressive long on a resistance break (perhaps to close the weekend gap?) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit. We will move the SL early and often and look to close and get short on when a support line forms / breaks with the same targets.
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The charts are very mixed / volatile at the moment, following the large gap over the weekend, and we will sit aside for now until better S/R lines develop. We will release an intraday update for all pairs around 15:00 UTC for the second half of the US session.
Needless to say, we are bearish today and looking for reasons to get short.
Recap: Our long from yesterday’s signal was triggered at 3160 on the resistance break, right around the interest rate volatility, and quickly jumped to 20 pips in the profit before settling around 3150 for the remainder of yesterday and well into this morning. After going nowhere for 12 hours we closed out the long for a 10 pip loss.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri May 4 |
01:30 | AUD Reserve Bank Board – Statement of Monetary Policy | ||
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR) | -1.1% | -2.1% | |
| 12:30 | USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (APR) | 165K | 120K | |
| 12:30 | USD Unemployment Rate (APR) | 8.2% | 8.2% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Technically speaking the outlook is mixed at best. We had a very bearish support break earlier this week and that has us leaning bearish now, but the consolidation yesterday showed that the market is still undecided.
Trading Idea: Since it is Friday we will not be entering any new trades, but if we were we would be looking for reasons to get short as we are still bearish on the pair. No good S/R lines at the moment.
Have a good weekend and the site will likely be down for some upgrades this weekend. We are getting a new home page, new pro dashboard and more. See you Monday!
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Recap: No trades were triggered from yesterday’s signal as the price never rose enough for us to get a good short price. Price continues to consolidate after the large drop from yesterday morning.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu May 3 |
09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| 11:45 | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAY 3) | 1.00% | 1.00% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Biggest news out today is the ECB interest rate decision, which we expect will be held steady at 1.00% and therefore won’t impact price action much.
Poor european economic performance continues to be the fundamental driver behind the USD strength, with employment rates among Euro countries at a 15-year high and no clear sign of improvement for the future. Luckily this is forex and we profit no matter which way the exchange rate is going :).
Technically after the big drop yesterday morning the pair has taken out several intraday supports and has a bearish outlook, so we will primarily look for reasons to get short.
Trading Idea: Despite the bearish outlook we will first look to establish an aggressive long on a resistance break (as there is a decent resistance at the moment) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit. We will move our SL early and often to minimize risk and also look to close and get short on a support break when one forms.
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Yesterday PRO Performance
Pair Result EURUSD No trades AUDUSD -6 pips GBPUSD No trades USDCHF No trades USDJPY No trades Daily Total: -6 pips Feb 2012 664 pips Mar 2012 755 pips Apr 2012 297 pips May 2012 (mtd) 14 pips *Signal results from 2012-05-16. Looking for month-by-month performance breakdown?
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