Recap: We took yesterday’s trade on the chin for a 50 pip loss as the weight of the Aussie interest rate downgrade ultimately caused traders to fatten their USD positions across the board.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed May 2 |
07:55 | EUR German Unemployment Change (APR) | -10K | -13K |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
With medium-term support broken – support that has lasted the better part of a month – we are short term bearish now as we are looking for the dollar strength to continue on poor global economic news. We will look for technical entries (support breaks, bearish candlestick signals, etc) to re-establish our shorts.
Trading Idea: Our primary trade today is to wait for a solid rising trend support to form and break for a short entry, with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
We will establish an aggressive short on a proximity alert to our falling resistance with targets at 20/20/20 for 60 pips.
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Site Update: Good morning piphutters! We’ve got a lot of exciting updates coming this week including a brand-new performance page (with swing trading breakdowns and graphs for our peformance for the past several months!), a new PRO interface that makes it even easier to make quick trading decisions and a re-vamped help system! So if you run into any problems you might want to refresh your browser, re-log in or, if the problem persists, shoot us an email at support@piphut.com :)
Recap: Neither trade was triggered yesterday (resistance or support break) as the pair slowly but surely continued its upward climb.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue May 1 |
04:30 | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAY 1) | 4.00% | 4.25% |
| 14:00 | USD ISM Manufacturing (APR) | 53 | 53.4 | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
The news of the day has got to be the Aussie Reserve Bank cutting its interest rate a full 50 basis points to 3.75% when this bank has traditionally been one of the most hawkish institutions. The news has led to a massive sell off in AU which is a combination of unwinding carry trades, news algos processing the news and speculative trades about what this means for the Aussie economy.
EU has remained surprisingly buoyant despite the large drop in AU but if the selling continues then we expect the weight of that dollar buying to begin pull down the EU as well.
Trading Idea: The resistance was just broken a short while ago and we are taking an aggressive long at current price (1.3265) with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will close if the current candle closes below 1.3265 (false break) and then look to re-enter or get short on a support break.
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Recap: Our SL was hit Friday for 10 pips profit as the pair began to retrace on our short during the bullish pre-weekend trading.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Apr 30 |
07:00 | EUR Spanish GDP Constant SA (QoQ) (1Q P) | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| 07:00 | EUR Spanish GDP Constant SA (YoY) (1Q P) | -0.6% | 0.3% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Italy CPI – EU Harmonized [APR P] (YoY) | 3.6% | 3.8% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Italy CPI – EU Harmonized [APR P] (MoM) | 0.8% | 2.5% | |
| 12:30 | USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (MAR) | 1.9% | 1.9% | |
| 12:30 | USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (MAR) | 2.2% | 2.3% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
As we come to the end of April and embark on another month it is worth it to glance back at the larger timeframe charts for some perspective on recent moves and, of course, to predict future moves :). Looking at the monthly charts we can see that the pair has been in a ever-tightening consolidation pattern since early 2005. Price peaked against a falling resistance in late mid-2008, late-2009 and again in mid-2011. The price is currently resting at the bottom of this monthly consolidation pattern, raising the likelihood that we will see a bullish breakout of the wedge pattern we are tracking on today’s 4h chart.
Trading Idea: We are primarily looking to get long on a resistance break of the 4h consolidation pattern, with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will also take a short (or close our long and get short) on a support break, but we are more concerned with a false break of the support line than we are with the resistance.
There is also an aggressive opportunity for a long bounce off the rising trend support around 1.3200.
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Recap: After the first two breaks were closed out as false breaks for 10 and 20 pip losses, we were hesitant to pull the trigger on the third support break, but, sticking with the system is paying off as the third short from 3221 is currently 50 pips in the profit.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Apr 27 |
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 27) | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| 12:30 | USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q A) | 2.5% | 3.0% | |
| 12:30 | USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q A) | 2.2% | 0.9% | |
| 12:30 | USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q A) | 2.1% | 1.3% | |
| 13:55 | USD U. of Michigan Confidence (APR F) | 75.9 | 75.7 | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: Our short is still open as we are targeting 3130 for about 90 pips profit before the weekend. We have moved our SL to lock in 10 pips profit and we will also close if either a) the weekend rolls around and no targets have been reached or b) if there is a resistance break. We will not open any new trades before the weekend.
Happy Pipping and have a good weekend!
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Recap: Yesterday’s short signal was not triggered as our support held firm, bouncing along the top of it all day – four proximity alerts (bounces) were kicked out in total. For those traders taking longs off the bounces it was a very profitable day :).
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Apr 26 |
12:00 | EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR P) | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| 12:00 | EUR German Consumer Price Index – EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR P) | 2.2% | 2.3% | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
The pair has been in a clear uptrend for weeks now after a period of consolidation, leaving us with a very clear rising trend support. But with the hourlies starting to look overbought and the last 4h candle failing off of 3250 we will look to get short off of our very aggressive rising trend support. It is aggressive because you can see that late yesterday we’ve already had two false breaks off of the line.
Trading Idea: We are looking to get short off of a support break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will try and give our short a little room to run at the end if possible as there is plenty of downside opportunity. We will also close and look to re-enter on a false break (if the entry candle closes above support).
Good pipping!
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Recap: No EU trades triggered from yesterday’s signal as the pair continued to rise without every challenging our rising trend support.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Apr 25 |
08:30 | GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q A) | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| 08:30 | GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q A) | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 12:30 | USD Durable Goods Orders (MAR) | -1.5% | 2.2% | |
| 16:30 | USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (APR 25) | 0.25% | 0.25% | |
| 18:00 | USD FOMC to Release Projections of Economy and Fed Funds Rate | |||
| 18:15 | USD Fed’s Bernanke Holds Press Conference | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Expect some choppy moments in the markets today with plenty of news coming out. British GDP, US Rate Announcements and the Bernanke press conference – just to name a few – are all expected to be market movers.
British GDP is forecasted to be both positive and an improvement over the previous reporting – we expect any negative growth to send the GBP/USD down. The US rate decision is expected to remain at 0-0.25% for the foreseeable future and we do not expect the markets to react so much to that, as to any potential language changes in the FOMC announcement.
Technically the pair is struggling to get on top of 1.3225 resistance and are tracking an aggressive support just under the last few hours of consolidation to catch a potential downward swing.
Trading Idea: We are looking to get short off of a support break with targets at 20/20/25/30 for 95 pips profit. If the current candle closes above 1.3225 we will not take the short off the current support line and will instead look to re-draw a more aggressive support if it develops and take that break instead.
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Recap: Welcome back PipHutters! No trades were taken yesterday as the markets remained too choppy/risky for us to get a high probability swing signal off. We are not wild about the current market conditions either but a) we wanted to provide you a market update and b) there are some setups (not just this pair) that are worth trading today.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Apr 24 |
01:30 | AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (1Q) | 2.2% | 3.1% |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Choppy price action has been a direct reflection of the choppy fundamental conditions we are seeing in the world economies of late. Those fundamental conditions have illustrated a global recovery that is uneven and at best, and it doesn’t help that it appears to be driven almost entirely by central bank action – not true market growth.
Technically we are slightly more bullish than bearish in the short term thanks for the higher high of last week on top of the string of higher lows the past couple weeks (mild uptrend).
Trading Idea: In the midst of of these mixed charts we are tracking a rising trend support (bottom blue line) and we will look to get short on a break below with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will look to close and get long if a new falling resistance forms and breaks.
Aggressive traders could look to get long on a bounce off this rising support with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips.
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Recap: It looks like bulls finally won out in the battle of the consolidation wedge with a topside break coming early yesterday. The pair is currently flirting with 1.3200 (the next strong resistance) with 1.3250, 1.33 and 1.3350 as the big resistance levels above that.
Fundamentally the pair is being driven by risk appetite, which is a direct reflection of how the global economies are doing, which is a direct reflection of corporate earnings and profit, which is ultimately a reflection of consumer and business confidence in the “recovery” (got all that? :).
Technically the pair has made a bullish break out of its consolidation triangle – a short-term bullish swing signal – however we remain long term bearish on the daily charts and after the bearish double top in late March.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Apr 20 |
06:00 | EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (MAR) | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| 13:00 | USD G-20 Finance Ministers, Central Bankers Meet in Washington | |||
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
Trading Idea: Due to the mixed technicals, and the fact that it is Friday (9/10 times we don’t trade Fridays due to the low weekend volume) we will remain flat for the day.
Have a good weekend!
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What is an “Intraday Update”? 2-3 times a month we do an intraday update, usually if there are no good setups to trade during the 6a-8a UTC time period we normally publish analysis. This allows the charts to develop a bit more and, hopefully, produce a higher probability setup for us to share with you.
Recap: No trades taken from Wednesday morning’s analysis as the proximity alert we were looking didn’t occur yesterday – we did get one this morning around 7:11 but by that time it had already been almost 24 hours.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous | No news that we consider HIGH importance for Thu Apr 19. |
|---|---|---|---|
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | |||
The pair has been in a large consolidation triangle, absorbing news of a worse jobs picture in the US, China’s furthing easing of its currency peg and, of course, the fiscal situation of various European countries.
Overall we are still bearish on the pair technically, but the market is in an inflection point right now, waiting for more clear fundamental direction. If no positive news comes out we see the EU continuing to sink.
Trading Idea: We will remain flat for the day as their are no solid S/R lines to trade at the moment.
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Recap: Our long was triggered at 1.3140 yesterday (PRO signals sent out at 7:28 UTC) on the bullish blast upwards, quickly getting 30 pips into the profit before slowly settling down over the next several hours and eventually hitting our tightened SL at break even. A wash, but we will settle for that in swing trading while the pair searches for direction.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Apr 18 |
08:30 | GBP Bank of England Minutes | ||
| 08:30 | GBP Jobless Claims Change (MAR) | 6.0K | 7.2K | |
| *To see a more extensive list of news events (not just those we consider important), visit our Forex Calendar. | ||||
For the most part the pair consolidated yesterday without finding a clear direction. Overall the 4h charts are in a very mild downward trend given the lower lows and lower highs of late, but we are very near the price level we were at 30 days ago so the trend is weak at best.
Overall we are still looking for reasons to get short.
Trading Idea: We are going to take an aggressive short on another approach to the falling resistance (“proximity alert” for PRO members) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips. We will look to close and get long on a resistance break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
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Yesterday PRO Performance
Pair Result EURUSD No trades AUDUSD -6 pips GBPUSD No trades USDCHF No trades USDJPY No trades Daily Total: -6 pips Feb 2012 664 pips Mar 2012 755 pips Apr 2012 297 pips May 2012 (mtd) 14 pips *Signal results from 2012-05-16. Looking for month-by-month performance breakdown?
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