February 7th @ 7:58 UTC – We will not trade the UJ at these levels because our preference is to short this pair, but the BoJ is lurking at these levels to drive the price up so we will pass. Aggressive traders could look to take a breakout trade in either direction (long on resistance break and short on support break) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit. We will remain flat for now.
February 3rd @ 7:56 UTC – We didn’t take any trades yesterday as detailed in yesterday’s analysis. It is Friday and we don’t trade on Fridays due to the volatility that generally accompanies the low volume. We have put aggressive setups and S/R lines on the chart above, and all alerts/PRO features will continue to work as normal.
February 2nd @ 6:27 UTC - We stayed flat as promised as price is to low for us to continue getting short (the direction we want to trade) with the BoJ lurking in the depths and we haven’t seen a good reason to get long yet. We will stay flat for the moment until a better technical signal appears.
February 1st @ 7:54 UTC - We stayed flat as promised as price is to low for us to continue getting short (the direction we want to trade) with the BoJ lurking in the depths and we haven’t seen a good reason to get long yet. We will stay flat for the moment until a better technical signal appears.
January 31st @ 6:01 UTC - We stayed flat as promised as price is to low for us to continue getting short (the direction we want to trade) with the BoJ lurking in the depths and we haven’t seen a good reason to get long yet. We will stay flat for the moment until a better technical signal appears.
January 30th @ 12:21 UTC Intraday Update – We had been waiting weeks for a reason to trade UJ and we weren’t going to let the chance escape us! Last week as the price finally got into the 78+ range we had been waiting for and then kicked up a large bearish candlestick that closed below 78.00 causing us to enter and close for our 80 pips from Thursday’s analysis rather quickly. We are, unfortunately, back at a price point that we do not consider wise to trade the UJ as we are still looking to get short primarily but the risk of BoJ intervention looms large at any lower lows (and in fact may already be slowing the descent).
January 27th @ 8:33 UTC – The chart above has also been updated with our aggressive trading ideas. We normally don’t trade on Fridays due to the higher volatility caused by the lower volume of Fridays. CandlePRO and Swing signals will continue to function as normal for PRO members.
January 25th @ 6:17 UTC - We may actually get a chance to trade the UJ today! Pair is up in the 78 stratosphere, where we are wanting to get short – all we lack now is a reason to get short. We will take an aggressive short without confirmation if we see another large leg up into the 78.5 range with targets at 15,15,25,25 for 80 pips profit, otherwise we are waiting for a good support line to form so we can short it.
January 24th @ 8:57 UTC - the problem with UJ is that even when breaks happen the pair barely moves! Yesterday bullish outbreak of our falling resistance looks decent on the above chart, but in reality the pair only moved 35 pips on the break, and that is if you got in immediately! Regardless we are still waiting for some better rallies to get short on and remain on the sideline – we are looking primarily in the 7800 range for shorts.
January 23rd @ 5:37 UTC - 77.30 presents the firmest resistance we have seen in days for this pair that aggressive traders could look to get short below / long above on. Still no movement in the UJ that is worth trading for us swing traders – since beginning the year the pair has not moved out of a tight 70 pip range and most of that has been in an even tighter 50 pip range. We are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 18th @ 7:22 UTC - Still no movement in the UJ that is worth trading – since beginning the year the pair has not moved out of a tight 70 pip range and most of that has been in an even tighter 50 pip range. We are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 17th @ 10:16 UTC - UJ is consolidating in a tight range between 7730 and 7670 – we are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 16th @ 6:16 UTC – UJ is consolidating in a tight range between 7730 and 7670 – we are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 13@ 9:19 UTC - UJ is consolidating in a tight range between 7730 and 7670 – we are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 12@ 10:01 UTC - UJ is consolidating in a tight range between 7730 and 7670 – we are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 11th @ 9:26 UTC - Pair did end up rising and taking out the upper resistance line but, as we mentioned in the intraday update, the setup was not solid enough for us to risk our equity on it so we are still on the sidelines for UJ. Our preference is to wait for a new rising support to form and get broken for a nice short entry but there isn’t a good enough setup on this chart quite yet so we are staying on the sidelines for the time being.
January 10th @ 16:02 UTC INTRADAY UPDATE – We did get long on the resistance break from yesterday and are closing it out at current price for -15 as the pair appears to be consolidating in a tight range shown above, with a breakout in either direction equally likely. The setup is not good enough for us to risk equity on, however, so we will wait for a better trendline to enter on. Aggressive setups on shown above.
January 9th @ 9:42 UTC – UJ has finally started to show some life and we will tentatively look to get long on a break above the falling trend resistance shown as a blue on today’s chart. We will target 15/20/25/30 for 90 pips profit, and will keep our SL tight and moved frequently as this is a fairly aggressive trade.
January 6th @ 9:33 UTC - The chart above has also been updated with our aggressive trading ideas. We normally don’t trade on Fridays, and with the first NFP of 2012 due out today we consider any trading to be extremely aggresive and will sit today out. CandlePRO and Swing signals will continue to function as normal for PRO members.
January 5th @ 7:29 UTC - Our long was triggered as our falling resistance from yesterday was broken. However, like most pairs yesterday with the exception of USDCHF the UJ simply limped along on the low volume after the resistance break. We are still in the long, as it hovers near break even, and will only look to close on a downside break of the support at 76.60. Until then we are still targeting 15/20/25/25 for 85 pips profit.
January 4th @ 10:00 UTC - We are looking to get long on a topside break of falling trend resistance (top blue line), currently at 76.70 and falling, with targets at 15/20/25/25 for 85 pips profit. We are not looking to get short at these levels.
January 3rd 2012 @ 6:27 UTC – UJ finally bit the big one and is plummeting like a rock. Whether this was the BoJ shifting their artificial currency targets for 2012 or they have actually thrown in the towel or impossible to say without some serious insider information, but what is nearly certain is that BoJ will not let this drop continue indefinitely and neither will the market. We are short term bearish on this pair as there is still plenty of room to full, however we don’t currently see any setups worth trading at these levels. We will instead look to add a falling trend resistance when one develops and then get long off a break of the resistance (charts will be updated automatically).
December 29th @ 6:44 UTC - Aggressive setups shown on chart above! We will not be trading today as there are only two days left in 2011 and markets are whisper thin, meaning even slight rumors could whip you out of a position right now. Aggressive setups are shown on the chart above for you brave souls looking to trade these dangerous waters.
Signals will resume again Tuesday, January 3rd and we will embark on yet another year together! Thanks for making PipHut the #1 forex community year after year – we would be lost without you all :). CandlePRO and PRO S/R Breaks and Bounces will continue to work as normal and S/R charts will be updated for PRO members.
See you in 2012!
December 28th @ 7:48 UTC - ”We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 27th @ 7:19 UTC - ”We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 22nd @ 8:05 UTC - We will not be trading today due to the light holiday + end of year volume. Light volume tends to create volatile and unpredictable markets. Normal analysis will resume Tuesday, December 27th, though we will continue to update the S/R Charts and S/R alerts + CandlePRO alerts will continue to operate normally. Happy Holidays and see you on Tuesday! Aggressive setups shown on chart above.
December 21st @ 9:28 UTC - “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 20th @ 9:08 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 19th @ 10:42 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 15th @ 9:41 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 14th @ 9:07 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 13th @ 6:40 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 12th @ 9:45 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 8th @9:58 UTC - We are not trading today due to the new features rollout announced this morning and also because of the extreme market choppiness we expect from the EU Summit. Our chart has been updated above with aggressive setups and of course CandlePRO, breakout alerts and bounce alerts will continue to work just fine :).
December 7th @ 8:05 UTC - Well if you took the support break from Monday you are a whopping 15 pips in the profit at the moment. We did not because “we are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 6th @ 7:02 UTC - There has been a downside break of the rising trend support we’ve been tracking but, as we mentioned in last week’s analysis, we are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 2nd @ 9:41 UTC – We are not trading this pair today due to our Friday Rule (Friday’s have lower volume and higher volatility). Aggressive setups shown on chart above and the long standing trade setup is still in effect: ”"We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 1st @ 10:27 UTC - Pair is sitting on rising trend support and is providing a tempting looking short break but we will pass for the details laid out in our long standing UJ trade plan – “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 30th @ 9:06 UTC – Pair continues to climb upward – probably because most traders share our same attitude that we aren’t going to look to sell at these prices when the BoJ is lurking, ready to print us out our positions. Same setup two weeks running (no need to get desperate and try to force a bad or low probability setup): ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 29th @ 9:30 UTC - Pair has just broken below the aggressive rising trend support we’ve had on our chart for a couple weeks but, as we mentioned in yesterday’s analysis we are not taking a short at this level and will wait for rallies higher to get short on. As usual, not a whole lot happening with UJ. ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 28th @ 12:08 UTC - “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 25th @ 7:49 UTC - Chart updated with aggressive setups above. Yesterday was a major bank holiday and most major traders are not trading today – this creates thin market conditions and we will not be trading today due to the greatly increased risk of volatility. Have a good weekend and we will see you Monday!
November 24th @ 6:52 UTC - U.S. Banks are closed today for Thanksgiving. With the banks closed the next two days will be very low volume, and that low volume can lead to big swings on low liquidity or just hours of watching the pair barely move. Either way, our main trading plan is to take the time off and you should too! We have updated the chart above with trading setups (we consider all trading especially aggressive/risky these two days and will not be trading ourselves). PRO members will get all charts update for all pairs today and tomorrow.
November 23rd @ 8:33 UTC - So UJ has been such a bad pair to trade over the past month – we’ve only taken a handful of trades in the past 6 months since the BoJ started daily interventions. Have an idea for which pair we should replace it with for daily analysis and charts? Send your vote to support@piphut.com. ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 22nd @ 6:24 UTC - Our long term falling resistance was broken but, as we mentioned yesterday, we are not looking for longs at this level and are instead looking to get short on a substantial rally. “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 21st @ 7:56 UTC - We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.
November 18th @ 8:21 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from PRO Analysis! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
November 17th @ 9:11 UTC - Remember the days a few years ago when UJ was the most exciting pair to trade? The BoJ has effectively ruined this pair 90% of the time! ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 16th @ 9:10 UTC - Another day in UJ, another copy and paste session: “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 15th @ 8:03 UTC - Another day in UJ, another copy and paste session: “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 14th @ 8:21 UTC - We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.
November 11th @ 7:14 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from PRO Analysis! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
November 10th @ 9:05 UTC - Reason #342 we don’t like trading UJ: after 2 weeks of tracking support our trade was stopped out at break even. Oh well – better to miss out than to miss equity. At this point we are tracking a new falling resistance around 77.80 and we will look for 1h and 4h signals to get short on below this resistance level, or look to get long on a break above 77.90 with targets at 78.10, 78.35, 78.65 and 78.95 for 105 pips.
November 9th @ 5:12 UTC - We finally had a break below 77.80 support (we’ve been tracking it for the better part of two weeks now) and have a short open at 77.75. It is about 20 pips in the profit and already the pair appears to be losing steam. We have moved our stop loss to break even already to avoid the inevitable BoJ backlash if they start to get too worried, with targets at: 77.55 (hit), 77.30, 77.05 and 76.75 for 80 pips potential. We are bearish on the pair in general and continue to see getting short on rallies as our highest probability trade.
November 8th @ 5:00 UTC - Our setups remain the same as the pair has hardly moved and the technical outlook remains the same: “We are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit.”
November 7th @ 8:31 UTC - We only had one trade last week (good for 100 pips) as the pair continued to trade in a tight range between 78.50-77.80 (most likely on BoJ manipulation). Our setups remain the same as the pair has not moved much: “We are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit.”
November 4th @ 4:31 UTC - No change from yesterday as the pair continued to consolidate in its tight range. We will not look for our breakout trade today because of our Friday rule but for you aggressive traders the aggressive setup remains the same as yesterday: “We are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit, but will also look to scalp the insides of this tight range (shorts at 7850 and longs at 77.80).”
November 3rd @ 5:35 UTC - The pair continues to tightly consolidate between 78.50 and 77.80. We are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit, but will also look to scalp the insides of this tight range (shorts at 7850 and longs at 77.80).
November 2nd @ 6:02 UTC - Same setups as yesterday as the pair barely moved from its consolidation channel: we are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit.
November 1st @ 6:00 UTC - Our short from yesterday took in a cool 100 pips (dropped for 30 more but we will take what we can get off of UJ). Today we are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit.
October 31st @ 7:24 UTC - We have been looking for a good opportunity to get short on UJ for weeks and the BOJ’s intervention this morning has provided a great setup. We took an aggressive short, no candle confirmation, on the close of the last 4h candle at 79.15 and we are targeting 79.00, 78.75, 78.45 and 78.15 (thanks @fxwiz for the number corrections) for 100 pips potential. The big risk to the trade is that the BOJ will continue to drive the price upward of course, or that we will see another wave of short squeezing but we believe at this price that shorts are the only trades worth taking.
October 28th @ 7:59 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from CP signals! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
October 27th @ 5:58 UTC - Our long once again barely yesterday and is alive to fight another day. Currently pair is at 75.90 and we are still long from 76.25 targeting 76.45, 76.70 and 76.95 for 75 pips profit. There is an opportunity for an aggressive technical short on a rise to 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15 and 75.80 for 80 pips profit.
October 26th @ 3:38 UTC - Our long barely survived the drop to 75.72 yesterday – coming within 7 pips of our SL! Currently pair is at 76.00 and we are still long from 76.25 targeting 76.45, 76.70 and 76.95 for 75 pips profit. There is an opportunity for an aggressive technical short on a rise to 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15 and 75.80 for 80 pips profit.
October 25th @ 7:14 UTC - Our long has gone nowhere since we established it yesterday at 76.25 but we still have it open. For those still looking enter today we would wait until we see a good break of the blue falling resistance above (currently at 76.20), and then look to get long with targets at 76.45, 76.70 and 76.95 for 75 pips profit (the same targets we are looking for on our long from yesterday). There is an opportunity for an aggressive technical short on a rise to 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15 and 75.80 for 80 pips profit.
October 24th @ 6:05 UTC - We have established a long at current price (76.25) in anticipation of another rise in this pair. We are targeting 76.45, 76.70 and 76.95 for 70 pips profit. There is an opportunity for an aggressive technical short on a rise to 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15 and 75.80 for 80 pips profit.
October 21st @ 7:12 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from CP signals! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
October 20th @ 6:44 UTC - UJ continues to range trade in a very tight band and we will look to short any rallies to the 77.50 region, targeting 25 pips chunks down to 76.50 or long any dip to the 76.30 support targeting 25 pip chunks up to 77.30 for 100 pips. Setups shown above.
October 19th @ 6:00 UTC - All targets were (barely) hit on our short from the 17th for 65 pips and we are currently flat. We will look to get short again on a rally to the 77.30-77.50 resistance band to take advantage of the range with targets (from 77.50) at 77.30, 77.10, 76.80 and 76.50 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to get long on dips to 76.60-76.40 with targets at 76.80, 77.00 and 77.30 70-90 pips potential.
October 17th @ 7:43 UTC - We are bearish on UJ and have taken an aggressive short at 77.25 (current price) as it has not failed to drop to rising trend support (blue line) once in the past 2 months. We are targeting 77.05, 76.85, 76.60 for 65 pips. Trend is up so on any rally to support the smart move is to look for longs on small timeframe candlestick signals, but the pair has also been ranging so the same strategy could be employed to take shorts (like the one we took above) on any rallies for a downside challenge of support around 76.60.
October 14th @ 6:30 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and good pips this week!
October 13th @ 5:38 UTC - And that’s why we wanted a sustained break below 76.60! The break happened – and if you entered on just the break you got 30-40 pips in the profit – but was quickly bought up by, we are guessing, the BoJ as they are trying to draw a line in the sand against too much currency appreciation. Today we will look to short another rally to 77.50 with 30m or 1h candlestick confirmation and targets at 77.30, 77.05, 76.75 and 76.50.
October 12th @ 6:29 UTC - Pair continues to consolidate in a sideways fashion, leaving our primary trade intact for the third day running: “short on a sustained break below 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15, 75.90 and 75.60 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking for any longs at the moment as the long-term technical outlook of the pair is bearish.”
October 11th @ 7:54 UTC - No trades activated yesterday as our sustained break never happened so a short was never tripped. Today the primary setup is the same: short on a sustained break below 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15, 75.90 and 75.60 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking for any longs at the moment as the long-term technical outlook of the pair is bearish.
October 10th @ 9:38 UTC - if the current 4h candle closes below the blue rising trend support at 76.60 (shown above) we will get short with targets at 76.40, 76.15, 75.90 and 75.60 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking for any longs at the moment as the long-term technical outlook of the pair is bearish.
October 7th @ 8:30 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday.
October 6th @ 7:45 UTC - Same trade setups as yesterday as pair continues to consolidate: Today we will look to get short if we see another rally into the 77.50 resistance range, targeting 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We are also adding a short on a sustained break below 76.50 with targets at 76.25, 76.00, 75.75 and 75.50 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking to get long at this point.
October 5th @ 6:45 UTC - Today we will look to get short if we see another rally into the 77.50 resistance range, targeting 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We are also adding a short on a sustained break below 76.50 with targets at 76.25, 76.00, 75.75 and 75.50 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking to get long at this point.
October 4th @ 4:55 UTC - Our trading analysis remains unchanged from yesterday as the chart techs remain the same: “We are once again looking to get short on rallies for UJ as this strategy has been very successful for those that have followed it – take a look at all the large rallies that have, one by one, all been sold off for 50+ pips at a time. Today we will look to get short if we see another rally into the 77.50 resistance range, targeting 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We are not looking to get long on the pair at this point as the daily charts are extremely bearish for this pair at this point.”
October 3rd @8:43 UTC - We are once again looking to get short on rallies for UJ as this strategy has been very successful for those that have followed it – take a look at all the large rallies that have, one by one, all been sold off for 50+ pips at a time. Today we will look to get short if we see another rally into the 77.50 resistance range, targeting 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We are not looking to get long on the pair at this point as the daily charts are extremely bearish for this pair at this point.
September 30th @ 5:05 UTC - The aggressive trade paid off for aggressive traders yesterday when once again the pair rose to the 76.80 resistance zone, as predicted, and then kicked out a nice hanging man in candlepro (14:00 on 1h charts). Pair has fallen 50 pips since that bearish signal. Today we are not trading because it is Friday but for you aggressive traders our primary trade would be a short on a sustained break below 76.40 as the recent consolidation appears to be a bearish channel after the break below long-term horizontal support from last week (horizontal blue line on the left side of the chart above). Short targets at 76.20, 76.00, 75.75 and 75.50 for 90 pips potential. Of course there is an opportunity for another short on a rally to the 77.00 resistance zone. We are showing yesterday’s chart above to show what we were looking for – and because the setups are basically identical as today.
September 29th @ 6:45 UTC - Today our primary trade is a short on a sustained break below 76.25 with targets at 76.05, 75.80, 75.55 and 75.30 for 95 pips potential. Aggressive trade could look to get short on a rise to 76.80 targeting back down to 76.30 for 50 pips but we will pass on this trade as the Reward/Risk ratio isn’t good enough even if the probability is high.
September 28th *Intraday Update* @ 15:12 UTC - Our long breakout trade above 75.55 hit the first target (75.75) and got 30 pips into the profit allowing us to tighten our SL to break even but price did reverse and hit our tightened SL for zero trade (which we view as a win). Today our primary trade is a short on a sustained break below 76.25 with targets at 76.05, 75.80, 75.55 and 75.30 for 95 pips potential. Aggressive trade could look to get short on a rise to 76.80 targeting back down to 76.30 for 50 pips but we will pass on this trade as the Reward/Risk ratio isn’t good enough even if the probability is high.
September 27th @ 6:38 UTC - UJ continues to consolidate and we are currently flat as the pair never got high enough or low enough for us to grab an entry yesterday. Today we are switching to a breakout strategy and looking to get long on a sustained break above 75.55 (targets at 75.75, 76.00, 76.25 and 76.50) and short on a sustained break below 76.15 (targets at 76.00, 75.75, 75.50 and 75.25 for 90 pips potential).
September 26th @ 6:10 UTC - After breaking below rising trend support at 7640 last week the pair has been slowly laddering lower and we will look to take advantage of this by getting short on any good rallies, especially with candlepro confirmation. Our primary today is short on a rally to the 76.70 resistance zone with targets at 76.50 (tight), 76.25, 76.00 and 75.75 for 95 pips potential. There is room for an aggressive short on a sustained break below 76.10 with targets at 75.90, 75.70, 75.50 and 75.30 for 80 pips potential, and an aggressive long on bullish candlepro signals around (bottom blue) rising trend support at 76.15 with targets back up to 76.70 where we will close and look to activate our primary short.
September 23 @ 7:01 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. Please see the chart below for the updated S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday.
September 22 @ 8:13 UTC - We closed our first lot for +40 and got stopped out on our second lot for -40 yesterday, putting us at break even for this frustrating pair. We are still bearish and looking for opportunities to get short on rallies to the 76.50-77.00 resistance zone on good 30m and above candlepro timeframes, targeting another stab at 76.00 and 75.50, though we will enter with only a single lot as this pair has proven hard to profit off of (most likely thanks to BoJ intervention as it struggles to keep its currency weak for export padding).
September 21 @ 6:08 UTC - If we were to write a post title for this pair it would be “BoJ still kicking”. Our short from 76.70 yesterday is doing very well as our SL just survived the rallies by, we presume, the BoJ as it looks to hold 76.00. We also added a lot to our short position on the sustained break below 76.40 (yesterday’s secondary) with targets at 76.20, 75.95, 75.65 and 75.35 for an additional ~100 pips to our existing short.
September 20 @ 6:09 UTC - UJ finally triggered a trade for us as the pair closed below the rising trend support we had been tracking (top blue line) at 76.70 and got about 40 pips in the profit before settling in at current price around 76.50. We close one lot for +30 and still have one lot running with the stop-loss tightened to 76.80 to only risk 10 pips on the remaining lot, meaning the worst we can do at this point is +20 pips for the entire setup (+30 and -10). For those still looking to enter our preferred trading direction for the day are shorts and we will look to add a short to our position on a sustained break below 76.40 with targets at 76.20, 75.95, 75.65 and 75.35 for ~105 pips potential.
September 19 @ 7:00 UTC - UJ gapped but, in typical UJ fashion even the gap was tiny coming in at less than 10 pips. Our primary trade today is to get short on a sustained break of the newest rising trend support (shown in blue above) currently at 76.70 with targets at 76.55 (tight!), 76.35, 76.10 and 75.80 for 90 pips potential. We will watch the 76.30 support area closely to close our short and get long as 76.30 has held repeated bear attempts over the past couple of weeks. Long targets from 76.30 @ 76.50, 76.75, 77.00 and 77.30 for 100 pips potential. Finally there is an opportunity for short-term traders to get long around currently price levels (~76.80) on 15m bullish candlesticks as the pair bounces along its blue support trendline.
September 16 @ 5:21 UTC - Charts udpated with trade setups. Written analysis forthcoming in a few hours today but we wanted to get the charts into your hands. Since today is friday we will not be trading, and view most trading as much more aggressive than normal as Friday trading tends to be light and volatile. Safe pipping and see you next week!
September 15 @ 3:21 UTC - We are beginning to feel a bit like a broken record with this trade but we are finally close enough to the 76.50 support where we think it may actually be activated today on a good CandlePRO signal: we are looking to get long on a drop to 76.50 support with CandlePRO confirmation and targets at 76.75, 77.00, 77.25 and 77.50 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to get long on a sustained break above blue falling trend resistance at 76.85 and targets @ 77.05 (tight), 77.30, 77.60 and 77.90 for 105 pips potential.
September 14 @ 7:30 UTC - no trade entered yesterday as price never fell to our primary setup entry point, which is still our primary trade setup today: “we are looking to get long on a drop to 76.50 support with CandlePRO confirmation and targets at 76.75, 77.00, 77.25 and 77.50 for 100 pips potential.”
September 13 @ 6:16 UTC - We got our aggressive short yesterday (single lot) on the 1h sustained break below support at 77.15 – the trade got 35 pips in the profit before turning back and hitting our tightened SL for +5 pips (we didn’t get more because we were trying to give the trade a little breathing room to drop). Today we are looking to get long on a drop to 76.50 support with CandlePRO confirmation and targets at 76.75, 77.00, 77.25 and 77.50 for 100 pips potential.
September 12 @ 5:23 UTC - We have been looking for opportunities to get short on UJ for weeks now and that will continue today as we believe that traders still wish to buy the yen as a safe haven currency. We will get short on a rally to 78.00 with CandlePRO confirmation (30m and above timeframes) with targets at 77.80, 77.55, 77.25 and 77.00 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to establish a small, aggressive short on a sustained break below 77.15 on 1h charts with targets at 76.95, 76.70, 76.45 and 76.15 for 100 pips potential.
September 9 @ 5:05 UTC - BoJ has succeeded in stabilizing the UJ, that much is for sure: the pair has ranged between 77.75 and 76.35 for the better part of a month now and we have taken very few trades in the pair as a result of the a) lack of movement and b) lack of a clear trend. We continue to sit on the sidelines of this pair and our preferred trade would be a short on any significant rally, especially to the 78.00 resistance zone with targets back down to 76.50.
September 8 @ 7:47 UTC - No trade entered yesterday as price never got low enough for our primary long to be triggered or high enough for our secondary short to get triggered. Today we are looking to get short on a break of latest rising trend support at 77.20 with targets @ 77.00, 76.75, 76.50 and 76.25 for 95 pips potential. We will closely watch our short and CandlePRO around 76.50 support for a chance to close and get long targeting another test of 77.50 resistance.
There is also an opportunity for aggressive longs near current price action at 77.35 with CandlePRO confirmation and targets up to 78.45 – FYI we will not be taking this trade ourselves as we still view longs as against the trend (even though price has been turning up lately).
September 7 @ 3:49 UTC - while we are bearish on UJ fundamentally the pair has been making some slow progress at looking bullish recently with a new higher high in place and a series of higher lows as well over the past couple weeks. While we are not ready to abandon our short setups altogether we are switching our primary trade to a long on a dip to short-term rising trend support currently around 76.75 and CP confirmation with targets at 76.95, 77.25, 77.55 and 77.85 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to get short on any rally above 78.00 with candlepro confirmation and targets back to 77.00 for 100 pips potential.
September 6 @ 8:10 UTC - same song and dance with UJ: the pair is bouncing along strong intraday support at 76.40 (blue line on chart above) and we are looking to get long above this level and short on a sustained break below. At the time of this writing the price has spiked to 71.17 and appears to still be rising. We will look to establish a short on a major rallies with 77.70-78.00 where we will look the most closely for bearish candlepro signals. Short targets from 77.70 are 77.50, 77.25, 77.00 and 76.70 for 100 pips potential.
September 5 @ 6:31 UTC - No signal for today as US Banks are closed for Labor Day. With banks closed the markets will be much thinner than usual. We expect price to drift along with no clear direction until money re-enters the market Tuesday, and we will hold off trading until then. Of course, there is always the alternative in thin markets: that a few players will push the exchange rate further than normal and there will be increased volatility.
September 2 @ 3:26 UTC - Same analysis as yesterday as nothing has changed with this pair, however because it is Friday we will not be trading even if the primary is activated and we view all trades as “aggressive” before the weekend. We are, in general, bearish on the pair and would look to fade any rally. Yesterday’s analysis: “It is a good thing we removed the sustained break below 76.50 as a trade setup yesterday: the pair broke that level briefly yesterday before rallying back up. We are still ultimately bearish on this pair and looking to sell into any rallies, but the real story here is how solid 76.40 has been since early August – we’ve had no fewer than 9 4h candlesticks touch this level and bounce up since August 10th. Our primary trade will be to sell a rally to 77.50 territory with a bearish CandlePRO signal and targets at 77.20, 77.00, 76.75 and 76.50 for 100 pips potential.”
September 1 @ 5:53 UTC - It is a good thing we removed the sustained break below 76.50 as a trade setup yesterday: the pair broke that level briefly yesterday before rallying back up. We are still ultimately bearish on this pair and looking to sell into any rallies, but the real story here is how solid 76.40 has been since early August – we’ve had no fewer than 9 4h candlesticks touch this level and bounce up since August 10th. Our primary trade will be to sell a rally to 77.50 territory with a bearish CandlePRO signal and targets at 77.20, 77.00, 76.75 and 76.50 for 100 pips potential.
We will however look to get short on a sustained break below 76.30 with targets at 76.10, 75.85, 75.55 and 75.25 for 105 pips potential. For this setup we will tighten our SL on each target to avoid the BoJ whipping us out of our profit.
August 31 @ 9:56 UTC - UJ barely moved, once again, which is exactly what the BOJ wants: stability. We have decided to remove our primary trade from yesterday from consideration (short on a sustained break below 76.50) as we believe the Bank of Japan is once again looking for reasons to drive the price upward on any signs of it falling. The pair may well still drop after a sustained break of 76.50 but we believe that the odds have decreased beyond where it is a smart long-term trade. We will instead wait for another rally to get short on – at least to 77.40 with targets @ 77.20, 77.00, 76.75 and 76.50 for 90 pips potential.
August 30 @ 10:25 UTC - Pair barely moved yesterday, leaving us stuck on the sidelines waiting for a better position. Our blue rising trend support line is still intact and we will continue to look for a bearish break below 76.50 with targets at 76.30 (tight t1), 76.05, 75.80 and 75.50 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to get short on another rally to the 77.50 resistance band with CandlePRO confirmation and targets back down to 76.50 for 100 pips potential.
August 29 @ 7:07 UTC - We closed out all lots on our short on Friday (as indicated in our Friday analysis) and are looking to re-enter short on a sustained break below new rising trend support (last blue line) at 76.50 with targets at 76.30 (tight t1), 76.05, 75.80 and 75.50 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to get short on another rally to the 77.50 resistance band with CandlePRO confirmation and targets back down to 76.50 for 100 pips potential.
August 26 @ 9:35 UTC - Nearly perfect trading plan from Wednesday as our long rose to hit all targets for 95 pips and then our secondary trade setup was triggered (“will look to sell in the 77.50 range with CP signals to fade back down”) when a nice Three Down pattern appeared on the 4h charts around 77.30 and we are now short at +30 and targeting 76.20 (but will close out all lots before the weekend). We won’t open any new positions with this pair until Monday when we begin waiting for rallies to get short on.
August 24 @ 9:12 UTC - Updated Chart above. We are still long from 76.65 which has gotten up to +50 in the profit so far but has sunk back down to +10 for remaining lots. As a reminder, we are targeting 76.85, 77.05, 77.30 and 77.60 for 95 pips potential and will look to sell in the 77.50 range with CP signals to fade back down.
August 23 @ 7:35 UTC - We are still long from 76.65 which has gotten up to +50 in the profit so far but has sunk back down to +10 for remaining lots. As a reminder, we are targeting 76.85, 77.05, 77.30 and 77.60 for 95 pips potential and will look to sell in the 77.50 range with CP signals to fade back down.
August 22 @ 2:15 UTC - The break of falling trend support we had been tracking all last week finally happened on a bullish gap at the start of trading late Sunday. We established a long position on the pullback to 76.65 with targets at 76.85, 77.05, 77.30 and 77.60 for 95 pips potential. We will look to ride the stop up as targets are hit as bearish sentiments toward UJ remain.
August 19 @ 9:30 UTC - We do not trade on Fridays due to thin volume conditions in the markets on Fridays which can create choppy, volatile and unpredictable price action. GU and UChf trades got triggered yesterday but we will not open any new positions before the weekend. For those aggressive trader’s looking to brave it we have updated the chart above with trade setups we would be pursuing on a normal trading day. Happy pipping and we will see you on Monday.
August 18 @ 14:06 UTC - Intraday Update - UJ continues to be a bit of a minefield with the BoJ lurking in the depths ready to devour any over-aggressive bears, while the charts still present as extremely bearish. We do have a nice blue falling trend resistance line on the chart above though that could provide a nice *pop* if it is broken, so we are looking to get long on a sustained break above this line at 76.65 with targets at 76.85, 77.10, 77.35 and 77.65 (though we expect 77.15 to provide stiff resistance).
August 17 @ 10:11 UTC - UJ has limped below our rising trend support triggering our short at 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.10, 75.80 and 75.50 for 110 pips potential. Our trade is about +5 pips in the profit currently. We have tight trailing stop to avoid getting whiplashed out by the BoJ (though if we do get stopped out we will look to re-establish a short at the new highs).
August 16 @ 6:06 UTC - The pair has been a scalper’s dream right now as the pair is bouncing off of rising trend support (bottom blue line). We are also now tracking a falling trend resistance (top blue line) which, when combined with the rising support offers us a nice technical consolidation pattern. The preferred direction for this type of pattern is to the downside but we will look to take trades in either direction with a long on a sustained break above 77.00 (targets @ 77.20, 77.45, 77.75 and 78.00) and short on a sustained break below 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15, 75.90 and 75.65.
August 15 @ 9:07 UTC - UJ has been steadily rising (pullback) after a strong bearish week last week as the price crept back down, daring the BoJ officials to intervene once again. We are currently looking to get short on a sustained break below 76.50 with targets at 76.25, 76.00, 75.70 and 75.40 for 110 pips profit. There is also an opportunity to get long on a bounce off of the blue rising trend support line at 76.60, however we expect bearish pressure to start in again around 77.50 and will to tighten our SL around this level.
August 12 @ 7:54 UTC - We do not trade on Fridays due to thin volume conditions in the markets on Fridays which can create choppy, volatile and unpredictable price action. Given this week’s volatility we expect the pair to behave more strangely than normal. For those aggressive trader’s looking to brave it we have updated the chart above with trade setups we would be pursuing on a normal trading day. Happy pipping and we will see you on Monday.
August 11 @ 9:33 UTC - the pair finally limped through our falling resistance line (long yellow line on chart above) and triggered our long. The follow through has been discouraging as dollar bulls have been unable to fight the tidal wave of yen bulls recently. Nonetheless we still have our long open from 76.80 with targets 7705, 7735, 7760, 7790. The charts are technical bearish but are oversold and the BoJ is lurking in the depths ready to eat any greedy bears.
August 10 @ 6:24 UTC - we are looking to get long a sustained break of the falling trend resistance line, currently at 7715 with targets at 7735, 7760, 7790 and 7820 for 105 pips potential. We are avoiding shorts right now for fear of a BoJ intervention.
August 9 @ 14:41 UTC - We are looking to go long on a sustained break of the loooong falling trend resistance shown with a yellow line above on the 4h chart. Specifically we are looking for a close above 77.50 with targets at 77.70, 77.95, 78.25 and 78.55 for 105 pips. We are not looking short at the moment for fear of a BoJ intervention.
August 5 @4:50 UTC - It is Friday (with the increased volatility and low volume that Friday’s bring) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas (arrows represent trading ideas). Have a safe weekend and we’ll see you next week for an exciting week.
August 3 @ 4:47 UTC - We closed yesterday’s short for +30 pips after it got more than 50 pips in the profit. We are looking to basically fade rallies and buy dips today as the pair has been extremely volatile and the markets are looking for direction right now. For dips we will look around 76.40 with targets back up to 77.50 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to short rallies to the 77.70 resistance zone with targets at 77.50, 77.20, 76.90 and 76.60 for 110 pips potential.
August 2 @ 5:20 UTC - UJ is looking very bearish at the moment after our latest rising trend support was broken and a few nice candlesticks appeared in CP. Of course this latest rally comes on the back of the news that the BoJ is ready and willing to intervene in the currency markets if the yen gains too much strength. Nonetheless we have established an aggressive short around current price action (77.50) and have our sights set on 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We will keep our trailing stop tight to avoid the bank’s intervention risk.
August 1 @ 7:07 UTC - We we were watching rising trend support (last yellow line) when CP kicked up a decent shooting star signal (candle open time was 06:00, signal time was 07:00). We were going to wait for a sustained break of that trend support but with the CP signal we took a single lot short around 7760 with targets at 7740, 7715, 7685 for 75 pips potential. In general we are bearish on the pair and will continue to look for reasons to get short.
July 28 @ 7:37 UTC - We missed the opportunity to get long above 7750 as we were looking for a bit more of a dip before entering, however our arrows from yesterday’s chart (left up above) perfectly explain what our next trade was: short near 78 as we anticipated the market would sell off any rally. We are currently around 35 pips in the profit and and will tighten our stop loss to 7770 when 7750 is reached, though we will leave the position open for a downside challenge of 77.00.
July 27 @ 7:19 UTC - Our charts have held completely true this week for this pair – we just haven’t seen a good enough entry to take advantage of that fact yet. We will look to get long on any dip to 77.00-77.50 with CP confirmation as we expect the BoJ to come in and scare the bears out of the market for a quick 50-100 pip jump. We will then look to get short around 77.80 (where blue falling trend resistance currently is) with targets back down to 77 for 80 pips.
July 26 @ 5:59 UTC - Ask and you shall receive. We were just commenting yesterday about how strange it is that the BoJ has not intervened recently and, sure enough they came in buying very strongly around 02:00 today – pushing the pair up 70 pips in a matter of minutes. We don’t think the BoJ is finished yet and we will look to get short on any more rallies to the 78.50 – with or without CP confirmation.
July 25 @ 12:55 UTC (Intraday Update) - Is the BoJ finally giving up? We doubt it, but we are surprised that they have not stepped in to rally the pair higher as it continues to drop. Our preference is to get short on rallies under 78.50 (with CP confirmation) and targets down to 77.35 by mid-week. We will keep our stops tight on any gain out of fear of a BoJ buying spree.
July 22 @ 6:03 UTC - It is Friday (with the increased volatility and low volume that Friday’s bring) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas. Have a great weekend.
July 21 @ 5:58 UTC - we are flat on this pair for the moment as it looks for a clearer direction (and also less BoJ interference). We have updated the chat above to show the most recent S/R lines and aggressive trade options.
July 20 @ 4:05 UTC - The pair has technically shown some signs of bottoming out as the downtrend has stalled out, and with the BoJ lurking in the depths it is enough for us to pass on any shorts at these levels. We prefer to look for shorts after a more significant rebound has occurred. We will look for an aggressive long above 79.30 with targets at 79.45 (tight t1), 79.65, 79.90 and 80.20 for 90 pips potential.
July 19 @ 4:43 UTC - UJ is going nowhere fast as the BoJ is confining it to a tight range. In non-manipulated markets we would look to get short below 78.80 but will pass on a short at this level as the BoJ is looking to drive the price up on major dips. We will stay flat for today until price gtes back up to a level where we feel comfortable shorting.
July 18 @ 4:40 UTC - Technicals are bearish but the BoJ is circling around 78.00 like a shark with a strong taste for bears, so we will pass on any bearish breaks and instead only look to get long on a sustained break above 79.30 with targets at 73.50, 73.75, 74.00 and 74.30 for 100 pips potential.
July 15 @ 7:17 UTC - It is Friday, markets our choppy and US inflation data is out at 13:00 (making markets even more volatile) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas. Have a good weekend.
July 14 @ 6:08 UTC - Our short from 7935 raced into the profit and hit all targets for 85 pips by the final lot (we’ll leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for0. Right now the BoJ is attempting to slow the descent and has just bought the oversold pair up to 7950 but the market does not appear to be biting on the bait and already the price has dropped back down 50 pips in a matter of minutes. Regardless the break did mean a sustained break of falling trend resistance and we have established a long at 79.00 with targets at 79.15, 79.40, 79.65 and 79.85 for 85 pips potential.
July 13 @ 6:59 UTC - we have taken a short recently at 7935 as price has broken below our rising trend support level. We have a very tight stop on our pair at 7965 to avoid the BoJ kiss of death and are targeting 7920 (very tight first target on uj), 7900, 7875 and 7850 eventually (though we will tighten even further before we reach that level as the banks appears to be buying around that level.
July 12 @ 5:52 UTC - All targets hit on our short for +60 pips per lot after the break below our support level. The pair is beginning to look oversold to us and we will look to get long on a sustained break above 80.25 with targets at 80.45, 80.75 and 81.00 for 75 pips potential. We are not looking to get short at the moment because of the high risk of BoJ intervention.
July 11 @ 8:43 UTC - UJ has a nice rising trend support line right now (support currently at 80.70) and this will be our pivot for the day: longs above 80.70 with targets at 80.90, 81.10 and 81.30 for 60 pips potential; shorts below with targets at 80.50, 80.30 and 80.10 for 60 pips potential.
July 7 @ 9:27 UTC - we are still short on this pair currently but we have moved our ultimate target to 80.50 before tomorrow’s new release, tightened our SL to only risk 20 pips and taken profit on half our position at +20. In short: we are hedging our bet before the news event.
July 6 @ 7:58 UTC - We are currently short from 81.00 after two consecutive 1h shooting stars just on our rising support line at 22:00 and 23:00. That trade is currently about 5 pips in the profit and we are still targeting a drop to 80.30 before the week is over. We are tightening our SL to 81.15 to minimize risk.
July 5 @ 7:54 UTC - We are currently flat but closely watching rising trend support (last gold line on chart above) for opportunities to get long above it and short below. This support is currently at 81.00 and rising. Our preference is to get short on a sustained break below as we feel that this direction allows our trade the most space to fall before encountering major support around 80.30 (our target for the trade).
July 1 @ 6:52 UTC - we closed our shorts for a profit of 25 pips per lot and have remained flat on this pair since. We will remain flat going into the 3-day weekend, but for aggressive traders we have posted the pertinent S/R lines, and we are generally bullish on the pair. There are no ideal setups at the moment – but we would generally support buying on dips with CP candlestick confirmation.
June 30 @ 9:18 UTC - our primary trade (short on sustained break below 80.95) was triggered yesterday as the 13:00 candle pierced way down below support. That candle closed at 80.77 and we took up a short position at 80.75 – that position is currently about 40 pips in the profit and we have the SL moved up to +25 to lock in profit, though we are still targeting down to 80.00 in the short term. The first arrow on the chart above representes our primary trade from yesterday, while the arrows on the right represent the aggressive long/shorts we are watching above the current support line – we are looking to get long above 80.30 and short below that level.
June 29 @ 7:51 UTC - We never got a sustained break below 80.65 so our primary was (narrowly) avoided which is a good thing. The topside resistance was broken through several times though which we know was profitable for several of you. We specifically weren’t looking for a long due to the bearish headwind on this pair so we passed on that aggressive long as well. For today we are looking to get short on a sustained break below 80.95 on the 1h charts with targets at 80.75, 80.50, 80.20 and 80.00 for 95 pips potential.
June 28 @ 7:52 UTC - UJ is caught in a bullish up channel on the 1h and 4h charts but it is currently near the top of this channel and we are looking to get short on a break below the latest rising trend support around 80.65 with targets at 80.40, 80.15 and 79.80 for up to 85 pips profit.
June 24 @ 5:49 UTC - there is a simple rule in trading: the more complicated your chart is the more assumptions you likely made and the higher the probability that some of those assumptions are wrong. And we feel like the UJ chart is fairly complicated at the moment, which means the direction for this pair is not clear yet. We will remain flat on this pair before the weekend and most likely look to get short on a rally to 81.00 starting on Monday.
June 23 @ 6:51 UTC - we took the bait on the break below 80.14 and setup a short at 80.05 on the sustained break. Needless to say this one jumped back up through the rising trend support and our trade got stopped out at -50 pips. We are now flat and will look to get short again on a rally to 81.00 with candlestick confirmation and targets at 80.75, 80.50, 80.25 and 80.00 for 100 pips potential. Leaving up yesterday’s chart to show our entry setup.
June 22 @ 6:53 UTC - We took the 4h bullish hammer at 12:00 above rising trend support – it had a nice bullish wick that closed above our trend support. We closed it out after only +10 pips, however, as a very bearish doji appeared on the 4h charts at 0:00 with a solid backtesting profit factor. While we did not enter short on the signal it was strong enough for us to prematurely close our long and we are awaiting this next candlestick close (~60m) – if there is a sustained break below 80.14 then we will open up a short position with targets at 80.00, 79.75, 79.50, 79.25, 79.00 for 114 pips potential. Scalpers and short-term traders can of course continue to get long on these bounces off of rising trend support (bottom black line on chart above).
June 21 @ 6:14 UTC - We hope the scalpers among us loved those bounces off the rising trend support we pointed out yesterday. That support is still holding firm as the price bounces along, those UJ is now resting just above 80.00 at 80.15. We are still looking to get short on a sustained break below 80.00 and yesterdays primary trade holds true for today: “a sustained break below 80.00 on the 1h or 4h charts would be enough for us to get short on this pair for a re-challenge of 79.50, however we will use a tight stop to avoid getting whipped out by the BoJ buying team.”
June 20 @ 7:34 UTC - UJ experienced a big drop on Friday and is now forming a bearish flag pattern on the 1h and 4h charts that indicates there is still more downside to be had in this pair. Specifically a sustained break below 80.00 on the 1h or 4h charts would be enough for us to get short on this pair for a re-challenge of 79.50, however we will use a tight stop to avoid getting whipped out by the BoJ buying team.
June 17 @ 6:03 UTC - We did open a long according to yesterday’s trade plan after a solid 1h bullish doji appeared at 23:00 @ 80.57 – right above our support at 80.50. The pair has not moved much since then and we will look to close the trade after 10 candles as per the 10 candle strategy, meaning there is only a few hours left on this trade. We will not open any more positions before the weekend, but in general if we were trading today we would look to get long above 80.50 and short on a sustained break below 80.40.
June 16 @ 8:08 UTC - we got long on the 4h break above 80.70, first target was hit at 80.95, we tightened the stop to break even and then the pair fell and we exited the trade at break even. So we are back where we started :). We are looking to get long near 80.50 with CP confirmation and targets at 80.75, 81.00, 81.30 and 81.60.
June 15 @ 5:00 UTC - Pair is still consolidating within its wedge between 80.70 and rising trend support (currently around 80.15). Our primary from Monday is the same: “We are looking to get short on a sustained break BELOW the rising trend support (currently around 80.0) with targets down to 79.6 and 79.2″ and we will now also look to take the secondary trade as the pair now appears more bullish than Monday thanks to a successful retest of 80.70 resistance. Secondary trade: aggressive long on a sustained break above 80.70 with targets at 80.95, 81.20, 81.50 and 81.80 for 110 pips.
June 13 @ 10:07 UTC - Pair is forming a wedge between resistance at 80.70 and rising trend support (bottom black line on chart above). We are looking to get short on a sustained break BELOW the rising trend support (currently around 80.0) with targets down to 79.6 and 79.2. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long on a break above 80.70 but we are not looking to get long on this pair at that price – we will wait for lower stabs where we feel more confident the BoJ will intervene to get long.
June 10 @ 7:33 UTC - We are getting closer to 80.70 – where we have been watching all week for a potential short but bulls collapsed well under 80.50 so we are still flat and will remain that way before the weekend. There is an opportunity to get short at current levels as it appears the bears have broken through a limited consolidation channel leaving a re-challenge of 70.70 as the obvious target.
June 8 @ 9:23 UTC - no change from previous analysis: “pair is treading water as bears/bulls consolidate their respective gains and losses. We are now on the sidelines as the pair gets lower and lower and the chance of BoJ intervention becomes higher and higher. If there is a rise to 80.70 resistance then we will watch CP for bearish confirmations to get short on, targeting 80.20 and 79.70, otherwise we will remain flat until a better opportunity arises.”
June 7 @ 9:16 UTC - pair is treading water as bears/bulls consolidate their respective gains and losses. Yesterday’s trade analysis is still 100% valid: “we are now on the sidelines as the pair gets lower and lower and the chance of BoJ intervention becomes higher and higher. If there is a rise to 80.70 resistance then we will watch CP for bearish confirmations to get short on, targeting 80.20 and 79.70, otherwise we will remain flat until a better opportunity arises.”
June 6 @ 9:31 UTC - We banked good pips off the big UJ drop last week and the pair cooperated nicely, but we are now on the sidelines as the pair gets lower and lower and the chance of BoJ intervention becomes higher and higher. If there is a rise to 80.70 resistance then we will watch CP for bearish confirmations to get short on, targeting 80.20 and 79.70, otherwise we will remain flat until a better opportunity arises.
June 3 @ 7:57 UTC - still flat and still kicking ourselves for not getting a decent entry under 82.00 (where we were looking for one!). We are leaving up the earlier chart to show what we were looking for, but we will remain flat going into the weekend and resume looking for opportunities to get short next week.
June 2 @ 6:08 UTC - Our bearish bias was confirmed yesterday as the pair plummeted down to 80.64 – just below where we were targeting at 80.75. Unfortunately we did not get another entry signal so we were flat through the day. We will look for another rally to 81.50 to get short on for another downside challenge of 80.75. We are also looking for an aggressive long a sustained break below 80.60 for a downside challenge of 80.60. However if the pair closes too far below 80.60 then we will look for a pullback to enter on to get a favorable price.
June 1 @ 9:15 UTC - we took 30 pips off of our primary short yesterday (short between 81.60-82) after two bearish confirmation signals appeared on the 1h charts – bearish doji at 20:00 and shooting star at 21:00. We are currently flat but will look to repeat yesterday’s primary trade if we get a rise: “re-establish a short between current price (81.60) and resistance at 82.00, with targets down to another challenge of 80.75″. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
May 31 @ 10:34 UTC - We got a major break to the downside of our key support level last week and were able to ride it down for good pips. We are now looking to re-establish a short between current price (81.60) and resistance at 82.00, with targets down to another challenge of 80.75. Normally we would hesitate shorting this pair against the BoJ but it has risen enough in recent weeks to carve us a little breathing room against the bank.
May 26 @ 8:34 UTC - got in long as the pair dipped to our primary trade zone yesterday (81.60-81.70) after the 05:00 1h candle just a few hours ago. Saw a pretty quick rise as other traders must have bought into the same support line and closed for a quick 30 pips. We will look to re-establish on another bounce off the trend support line or get short on a break below (see chart arrows above).
May 25 @ 9:29 UTC - we saw a great bounce off rising trend support but just missed out as we were looking for a little bit lower price to get long on. As we always saw – better to miss out then miss your equity! Same trade setups as yesterday: still waiting to get long on a bounce off rising trend support now at 81.60-81.70, or short on a sustained break below 81.50.
May 24 @ 9:25 UTC - We are actually looking to trade UJ for the first time in awhile! We feel the price has risen enough where the threat of a BoJ intervention is lower and there is a clear rising trend support (bottom black line) that we can use as a pivot for any of our trades. The support is currently at 81.50 and a on a sustained break below 81.20 we will look to get short with an eventual target of 80.20. We will also look for short-term longs around 81.55 on bounces off support target 82.00 and 82.50.
May 20 @ 5:57 UTC (updated) - as much as it pains us to begin trading the UJ with the BoJ destroying the free market the pair is actually beginning to look technically bullish and we will begin to look for longs on a dip to rising trend support around 81.00. We will also look to short an overheated rally to 83.25 – though we don’t expect either one of these trades to be activated today as the BoJ has kept a lid on big moved recently.
May 18 @ 8:43 (updated) - BoJ continues to interfere with this pair’s normal market moves and we are flat for the time being. When it gets high enough (82 or so) we will look for a short as the normal market should be able to fight it back down to 80 but until then we remain flat. There are opportunities for aggressive longs on dips to the rising trend support, currently around 80.75.
May 14 @ 8:46 UTC - while we are fundamentally bearish on this pair and remain neutral due to the BoJ’s interference they have been running for the past several weeks our primary trade would be either a) a short near 81.15 on a rise and bearish CP signal with targets down to 80.40 or b) long on a drop to 80.40 support with targets up to 81.15. BoJ has a tight-collar on this pair and that is another reason we are not trading it right now – it takes several weeks just to move a few hundred pips!
May 13 @ 7:32 UTC - we did indeed see the rise and fall we have been waiting for all week. However we already had 3 open positions with EU, GU and Uchf so a) we didn’t want to overexpose ourselves and b) we haven’t been too keen on this pair recently, if you haven’t noticed, thanks to the BoJ interventions. We will look for more opportunities to get short next week, and remain bearish for any traders looking to trade the Friday markets.
May 12 @ 8:23 UTC - no change from yesterday’s late analysis: “We are still on the sidelines because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.50-81.70 is good resistance).”
May 11 @ 18:06 UTC - We are still on the sidelines because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.50-81.70 is good resistance).
May 9 @ 8:00 UTC - *FYI there was a very strong bullish daily signal for this pair today* We aren’t looking to trade this pair right now because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.50-81.70 is good resistance).
May 6 @ 8:32 UTC - *We are not trading today because of Friday-volatility and NFP event risk*. No change from yesterday’s trade “idea” - We aren’t looking to trade this pair right now because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.70 is good resistance), but the conservative strategy is to stand aside today.
May 5 @ 7:03 UTC - no change from yesterday’s trade “idea” - We aren’t looking to trade this pair right now because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.25 is good resistance).” The only part that has changed is that 80.70 is now resistance.
May 4 @ 7:49 UTC - UJ has been consolidated in a tight range yesterday between 81.10-80.80 for the most part. We aren’t looking to trade this pair right now because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.25 is good resistance).
May 3 @ 7:55 UTC - if you took our aggressive short from last week (we didn’t) you’d be a whopping 30 pips in the profit right now. There was a discussion going on in the chat room about trading this pair, and our feelings can be summed up as follows: technically it is bearish, and if we were trading we would look for opportunities to sell. The problem is that the BoJ is lurking around the lows like a shark ready to knock speculators (that’s us) out of the market. So will pass, but for those brave souls out there our preferred strategy would be to sell on rises and good CP bearish signals.
April 29 @ 6:06 UTC - UJ has went exactly nowhere yesterday, bouncing around in a tight range between 81.40-81.60 for the past 12 hours. Normally we would say this creates a breakout scenario but with the BoJ looming like a shark beneath the short-waters we will pass on this trading setup, especially on a Friday.
April 28 @ 7:24 UTC - Price finally broke through the 4h falling trend resistance yesterday and rose for +100 pips. We remained flat because of the reasons mentioned yesterday and are flat currently, however there does exist an opportunity for an aggressive long around current price action (~81.60) as the pair re-tests the former falling trend line. We will not take this trade as part of this conservative signal because of a) we are seeing broad USD bearishness these past few days and b) the sudden ascent makes us think this latest rise was caused by the BoJ and therefor the break is not on fundamentally sound ground. Any longs from the current area would target 81.95, 82.20, 82.50 and 82.80 for ~120 pips.
April 27 @ 8:45 UTC - our tight stop get tripped yesterday for a small loss of 20 pips. We will remain flat today because of the dual risk of BoJ intervention and FOMC rate volatility (we can only battle one central bank at a time :) but remain bearish and aggressive traders can look around 81.80 for good resistance trades.
April 26th @ 8:14 UTC - we scalped a few pips on the bounce off resistance from yesterday’s analysis but did not capture the ride down as there was never any decent 1h or 4h confirmation in CP. Oh well – the most we would have been able to capture so far would be about 60 pips or so. We have an aggressive long around current levels (81.60) on some bullish CP signals but our stop is tight beneath 81.40 with a target challenging the 82.1 resistance again, where we will look for another short opportunity. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
April 25 @ 8:35 UTC - UJ has formed a bit of a downward channel and is very close to current resistance around 82.30. We will look to take an aggressive short around this level with good CP confirmation, but will keep the stop tight as the trade is in constant risk of the BoJ intervening. Short targets at 82.00, 81.75, 81.50 and 81.20.
April 21 @ 7:35 UTC - CandlePRO has been doing a great job leading the way on this pair. The only bullish signals we saw around 82.7 were both extremely weak both in formation strength and profit factor on the 1h charts. The 4h signals were all bearish and were pretty strong signals at that. For example there was a 4h Three Inside Down that opened at 08:00 with a 77% formation strength and a 3.55 Profit Factor! Not a good signal to bet against. In normal markets we might have gone short on that signal, but with the BoJ sitting on the other side of the table with an infinite stack of chips we decided to pass. While we believe the charts to be bearish technically we will remain flat for the reasons listed below – we don’t want to be caught in a short the next time the BoJ prints a trillion yen to trade for dollars. For those aggressive traders out there a rise to 82.50 would be a nice spot to get short with confirmation.
April 20th @ 6:19 UTC - Any scalpers taking the sustained break above the 10-EMA on 4h charts are at least 30 in the profit right now (trade suggestion from yesterday) and we are now looking to get long again on price indication that the pair is beginning to turn upward. There are support levels at 82.7 and 82.3 and we will watch for both CP bullish signals.
April 19th @ 9:50 UTC - no real change from April 19th’s analysis: “Though we think this pair has plenty of fundamentals to drive a drop (e.g. repatriation flows) we are starting to get that area where we feel going short is a bit like playing with BoJ fire.” the 10-EMA on the 4h charts is being heavily respected by price action and scalpers could look to get in there on small tf signals (or go long on a break above).
April 18 @ 8:09 UTC - Moving our aggressive short down to 84.00 (last analysis) paid off as the pair the pair started spitting out consecutive 1h bearish signals (including a high profit factor bearish doji at 12:00 followed by a 13:00 Three Inside Down on April 13 right after our analysis) around 84.00 that made for a 100 pip drop before the weekend. Though we think this pair has plenty of fundamentals to drive a drop (e.g. repatriation flows) we are starting to get that area where we feel going short is a bit like playing with BoJ fire. We will sit on the sidelines for today, at least, and see what tomorrow’s chart brings us. Leaving last week’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
April 13 @ 5:05 UTC - We were not able to get short again yesterday so we remain flat on the pair. We are moving our aggressive short down to 84.00 for the day which coincides with our 10-EMA shown on the chart above – we will look to get short below this level on a CandlePRO signal and keep our SL tight above.
April 12 @ 9:20 UTC - great 100+ short on the sustained break below 84.50 yesterday. The 1h closed just a few pips below 84.50 enabling us to get a good price on the short and the pair quickly dropped down below 83.50. Pair is rising again and their is an opportunity for another short around 84.50 with confirmation though we will go in with only a single lot as we don’t want to be against the BoJ for too long ;). We are leaving yesterday’s chart open to show what we are looking for.
April 11 @ 11:52 UTC - we have been flat on this pair since our short got stopped out early last week and for the past few days price action has been bouncing between 85.50 and 84.50 – setting up a possible breakout situation. While the preferred direction from this breakout is to the upside we will look at a sustained break below 84.50 as bearish and a sustained break above 85.50 as bullish. There also exists some opportunity to trade within the range with candlestick confirmation (e.g. scalp the levels going long above 84.50 and short below 85.50).
April 6 @ 8:38 UTC - we were stopped out on our UJ trade yesterday as the BoJ continued the rally of the pair. We think they are trying to scare any sellers out of the market and, so far, they are doing a great job. While we think this pair is overbought we are going to step aside until we see some solid daily chart evidence that the bears are returning.
April 5 @ 7:24 UTC - we took a short here at 84.30 for a couple different reasons: 1) 84.50 appears to be holding and have had at least one long daily wick pierce this level and fall back down, indicating selling pressure there, B) with our SL above 84.80 it is pretty easy to get a good reward/risk ratio. The obvious risk is the BoJ intervening but it has gotten high enough in recent days where they might let it slip a little bit before intevening.
April 4 @ 8:53 UTC - we would like to go short now (and there is an aggressive opportunity to do so) but the BoJ just presents too much of an event risk at the moment. We will remain flat for the time being and re-evaluate tomorrow.
April 1 @ 6:20 UTC - we closed our short at 83.40 after 10 candles had elapsed from our entry signal. We still see downside potential as the markets want the yen priced higher, but with potential BoJ intervention presenting a major risk-factor and the weekend looming we didn’t want to push it. We will look to re-evaluate after the weekend and remain flat for now.
Mar 31 @ 7:47 UTC - the setup we’ve been waiting for the BoJ to provide us for weeks has finally arrived: short at 83.00. There was a sweet 4h CP confirmation signal at 04:00 yesterday: a bearish doji with a 6.12 high profit factor, 4.3:1 average RR and 5.8:1 median RR on 14 signals analyzed that was too good to pass up. As mentioned previously our stop is tight as BoJ intervention is a serious concern here that could very easily knock us out of our short. The nuclear situation continues to get worse however and at some point (hopefully this one) we expect the market to re-challenge the BoJ for fair market value of the yen. Leaving up last week’s chart when we started looking for this setup.
Mar 29 @ 6:41 UTC - trade setups are still exactly the same as yesterday as the pair has not moved much due to the BoJ/G7 intervention, however we are adding a setup to the two setups shown on the chart above: opportunity for an aggressive short at 81.90 with good CP confirmation. 81.90 is the underside of the wedge (black lines chart above) and a good technical spot for traders to re-enter short. As always make sure to use a SL – it is doubly important knowing that the BoJ could step in at any moment and shoot the pair up 200+ pips.
Mar 28 @ 8:01 UTC - we were going to update the chart above but the shown trade setups are still our preferred location. The BoJ/G7 is keeping this pair in a tight range (despite the recent rise) and we expect the market to start getting short again around 82.75-83.00
Mar 25 @ 8:52 UTC - flat for the weekend… this pair is going nowhere. The BoJ/G7 have this pair wrapped around their pinky and aren’t letting go anytime soon. Though the 81.30-80.70 might provide a nice breakout scenario above/below next week…
Mar 24 @ 7:33 UTC - We are still right about where we left off on Tuesday so the Bank of Japan / G7 are doing a fine job of rigging their economy at the moment. Pair appears to be turning down in the short-term (currently around 80.80). Tuesday’s setups are still valid so we will leave Tuesday’s chart up above and the analysis below..
Mar 22 @ 8:53 UTC - the G7 has done a good job of stabilizing this pair above 80, but we will look for the market to get short above 82 for a re-challenge of 81 and 80, and we expect the BoJ to get long anywhere around 79 to keep their currency weak enough for their exporters to survive. See chart for graphic representation.
Mar 17 @ 5:47 UTC - Where to begin with UJ… First off we took a loss on our long position yesterday but it could have been a lot worse. We used a 50 pip stop loss (pretty standard for us) but, due to the liquidity problems ended up getting closed out for a 70 pip loss. We were expecting the BoJ to intervene under 80 fairly quickly as they have in the past but we miscalculated. The frustrating part is that the pair has been forming a bearish wedge for weeks now on the weekly charts (thick black lines on chart above) that we’ve been tracking! For any other pair we would have been riding the short for 400 pips but, because we were anticipating the BoJ intervention we traded against our normal philosophy. Lesson learned. Now that the major moves have happened we will stay away from this pair for a bit, except to short on any major rallies as we expect the bearish pressure to continue, but the rally would need to be in the vicinity if 80-81 and have great candlestick confirmation.
Mar 16 @ 7:45 UTC - We did finally get short yesterday after the 02:00 candle pierced above 82.00 and then closed below (false breakout) which was the followed four hours later by a shooting star in CP (06:00 1h). The shooting star itself was not all that impressive stats-wise, but we were itching to get short because of the strong yen-strength and because of the false breakout hours before. We took profit for +80 and are looking to get short again in the 81.50 resistance zone. We will also look to get long near 80.00 on further drops as we believe the BoJ will intervene around this level and shoot the pair up.
Mar 14 @ 19:39 UTC - we should have ignored our own advice and listened to CandlePRO! We circled the two shooting stars on Mar 9, both solid in CP, but then didn’t follow them ourselves because of our fear of over-exposure to USD swings. Well, a 50 pip stop-loss would have been plenty to keep you in the trade for almost 200 pips now. We are currently flat but looking to sell to take advantage of yen strength on repatriation flows into their currency markets. Looking to sell on CP signals around 82-82.50. Leaving Mar 9′s chart up to show the shooting stars we circled.
Mar 9 @ 8:13 UTC - two good shooting stars on 4h charts right now, but we already have two anti-dollar trades open and don’t want to much exposure in case dollar bulls rally.
Mar 8 @ 8:51 UTC - we took a single lot short from 82.50 after a solid CP signal in conjunction with our EURUSD trade to hedge the risk. Targeting the bottom of the channel around 81.80.
Mar 4 @ 8:20 UTC - We are the midpoint of the channel at 82.50 right now, but it is Friday and the daily signal was pretty bullish so we will hold off to see where the pair opens on Monday.
Mar 2, 2011 @ 8:24 UTC - there was actually a strong daily candlestick yesterday (inverted hammer) that CP saw as bullish, but I’m not so sure it isn’t a shooting star. The problem is that there are only two candlesticks before it to go off of. Anyway, when we disagree with CP we usually sit out the fight which is what we did here. We will continue to look for selling opportunities near 82.50 on a strong bearish signal. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
Mar 1, 2011 @ 4:58 UTC - We took some good short pips off this pair last week on the sustained break below 83.00. The pair is bouncing off the bottom of it rising trend support currently (bottom black line on chart above). We are still bearish on this pair and will look for an opportunity to get short again on a rally to the 82.50 resistance zone which is about the midpoint of this consolidation channel. A short from 82.50 would target 81.50 and eventually 80.50.
Feb 25 @ 8:44 UTC - We finally got our 4h sustained break of 83.00 on the 08:00 GMT candle (closed 09:00) of Feb 22 – pretty shortly after our Feb 22 analysis. Luckily it also close very close to 83.00 so we did not miss out on much of the drop by waiting for the sustained break and we were able to ride it all the way down to 81.75 after the 4h kicked up a decent bullish doji on Feb 24 at 16:00 for a decent 120 pips. We are flat before the weekend but will leave the Feb 22 chart up to show what we were looking for.
Feb 22 @ 7:58 UTC - got a break (big drip down to 82.80) but it was not sustained and quickly shot up above 83.00. We are flat on this pair at the moment, but would still take a short below 83.00 *sustained* if the opp presented itself.
Feb 21 @ 9:24 UTC - We took profit on our short from last week as the pair has been meeting support around 83.00 and appears to have possible formed a top at 84.00 in the short-term. To complete the reversal pattern we need a sustained break below 83.00 where we will look to get short again with targets at 82.50 and 82.00 over the week.
Feb 17 @ 9:02 UTC - we are back to break even on this trade now after barely surviving the rally. We’ll leave our stop just above 84.00 for the moment as it is still a rather tight stop with a good RR ratio. Leaving yesterday’s cahrt up to show what we were looking at.
Feb 16 @ 8:25 UTC - Our short from 83.50 is hanging on by a thread at the moment but we are keeping it open despite the rise above falling trend support. That is the nice thing about UJ – even the breakouts don’t move enough to kill your stops in this BoJ-controlled market :). We are looking for a re-challenge of the 82.50 area as our first target.
Feb 15 @ 9:11 UTC - we’ve been watching this pair ping pong between falling trend resistance and rising trend support since late 2010 (take a look at the black lines above and then read the analysis below), and the pair is currently around 83.50. We did take a single lot short at 83.50 on daily hanging man with targets around 82.50 for 100 pips profit. Only a single lot though as the pair has been flirting very strongly with that top falling resistance after a very strong bullish movement.
Feb 10 @ 7:09 UTC - Pair is right smack in the middle of its two support/resistance trend lines which are slowly closing in on itself in a long, drawn-out triangular consolidation pattern. There is a an aggressive short opportunity here (middle trend resistance line) but the reward/risk ratios just aren’t there – down to the bottom of the pattern around 81.50 is only 90 pips away but the pair is technically bearish under its longer term trend resistance line around 83.50. We will wait for an opportunity to sell around 83.50 or buy around 81.50.
Feb 9 @ 9:17 UTC - We did indeed see the break below 82.15 which led to a ~40 pip drop, but the pair quickly reversed and is now trading above 83.50 (the resistance level we were watching). We are flat and will remain flat on this pair for a bit until a clear trend is established. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
Feb 8 @ 6:56 UTC - Pair did indeed bounce hard off of rising trend support just hours after our Feb 4 analysis where we were looking for a bounce. The pair is currently consolidating in a tight 82.15-82.45 range and we expect any sustained breaks above/below these levels to continue – e.g. a break above 82.55 to lead to 83.00 and 83.50, while a break below will lead to another challenge of daily rising trend support around 81.50. Both directions offer good reward/risk ratios though we give a slight edge to the bulls as the USD has been strong this week thus far and the 4h picture presents as a bit of a bullish flag with bullish consolidation pattern.
Feb 4 @ 8:18 UTC - Closed out this week’s short for around 50 pips. Pair is now at rising trend support and we will look into establish a long early next week. CP kicked off a good daily signal on Wednesday for those watching that would have netted 50 pips the next day alone, with possibly more to come as the pair bounces off this rising trend support. Leaving this week’s chart up from Monday to show what we were looking for.
Feb 2 @ 8:49 UTC - Support broke and our long got stopped for a small loss. We stop and reversed below the support level which is now about 50 pips in the profit (we are leaving Monday’s chart up so you can see what we were looking for/at). The problem with UJ these days is that (thanks to BoJ intervention to stabilize the exchange rate) even breakouts hardly move the pair more than 50 or so pips these days. In effect we are investigating raising our lot level per trade with this pair.
For those not in any trade 81.90 now is resistance and would be our next area of resistance where we would look for shorts.
Jan 31st @ 9:32 UTC - Pair is at the fourth re-challenge of 82.00 of January – the previous three times has sparked a major bullish movement (BoJ intervention probably) and as long as this levels holds we will remain short-term bullish with targets of a re-challenge of 83.00.
Jan 28th @ 5:24 UTC - Our long from 82.40 got +80 in the green and we closed out at +60. This after the trade almost got stopped out earlier this week. Flat for now until a new trend line establishes itself, though the pair appears slightly bullish. Today is Friday so any trade should be viewed as riskier.
Jan 27th @ 7:50 a UTC - Still long from the 25th, our SL within a hair of getting triggered, now -15 pips. Leaving the chart from the 25th up to show what we were looking at/for.
Jan 25th @ 6:54a UTC - After another drop we are taking a single lot long from the 82.40 support (former trend resistance), with a SL hidden under 82 and a target (for now) at 83.5 for a re-challenge of resistance.
Jan 24th @ 7:20a UTC - Flat all of last week; we finally saw a break to the bearish channel the pair had been in for weeks, though it was to the topside. UJ has really seemed pretty dead recently. Even these big “breaks” are no more than 70 pips or so, before a correction takes place. Difficult for long-term traders to make any good number of pips when there is no movement, but ideal for scalpers looking to shave a few pips at a time with the reduced risk of a low-volatility pair. Makes us wonder if the BoJ isn’t intervening to steady the exchange rate… Remaining flat until we can make some good, long-term pips.
Jan 20 @ 8:56a UTC - Still flat, with trade setups from Jan 19 still valid (channel trading).
Jan 19 @ 9:04a UTC - UJ has been in a solid downtrend for a couple weeks, but unfortunately has not moved enough to get a decent risk/reward trade out of it. That being said there are plenty of opportunities here for short-term traders to take short positions off of another rally to 82.5 or on a sustained break below 82.00. For a longer-term trade we will remain flat.
NOTE: Due to the server restore we had to do the posts between Jan 9th-Jan 19th are lost forever :( – unless a diligent PipHutter copied them down somewhere!
Jan 7 @ 6:59a UTC - The closest CP got to a bearish signal near 82.5 was a 30m and 1h (a few hours after signal was posted) – both around 82.1. A bit too far away for our taste and either one would end up as a loss (though with 82.5 double-top neckline providing a great place to hide a stop probably not a big one). The bullish break above the neckline, however, did produce quite a pop for any stop-and-reverse traders or false breakout traders trading along with the USD-strength theme. We did not take it but with price currently around 83.5 the pop above 82.5 is already +100. Given the news volatility today we will wait until Monday for higher-probability setups and calmer markets where technical analysis generally works better.
Jan 5 @ 9:12a UTC - We see a double top in the UJ over the past couple months with the two tops peaking around 84.5 and the neckline at 82.5. After the initial break of the neckline last week we saw a healthy 200 pip drop, almost all of which has been erased by a USD rally in the past three days. However this is still a bearish technical break, and that coupled with a various sentiment/position indicators that show retail traders heavily long the UJ pair (contrarian indicator) is enough of a reason for us to look for short opportunities near 82.5 on strong CP signals with targets down to 81.5, 81.0 and 80.50.
Jan 3 2011 - Happy New Year! Bank Holidays in numerous countries today (UK, Australia, Japan, some French banks, etc) so no PRO analysis – markets are too thin for any good analysis/trading in our opinion. CandlePRO will continue to turn out signals, as always, and you can view all bank holidays here. We look forward to an exciting and pip-filled new year with you!
Dec 20-24th - No PRO analysis this week due to holidays and illiquid markets, but CandlePRO will continue to function as normal! When markets have this low of volume (due to traders being gone for the rest of the year) then markets tend to behave in strange ways and are difficult to predict in the short-term. If you do choose to trade we recommend you trade even more conservatively than normal! In general we are bullish on the USD as risk-aversion continues to be the dominant theme. Keep an eye on your emails for the new PRO Scoreboard feature and we’ll see you in 2011! – PipHut
Dec 16th @ 7:04a UTC - We saw resistance and lots of bearish pressure (as expected) under 84.25-84.50 and a drop of 140+ pips from Monday. However there was not much confirmation for the trade in CP or otherwise so we stayed flat (better to miss out than miss your equity!). The USD now looks to be gaining strength and I expect 84.50 to be broken to the upside before the end of the week.
Dec 13th @ 7:38a UTC - I unfortunately stayed on the sideline of last week’s great bullish UJ breakout above the 83.2 resistance because the technical picture called for a short-term drop. No trade is always better than a losing trade though and, as I say, better to miss out than to miss your equity. We are fast approaching on the 84.25-84.50 resistance zone, however, and there is another opportunity to short here on a good CP signal. I will keep it to a single lot (bulls have been strong recently so it is a bit more aggressive than I would like) and will look to do a stop and reverse long on a sustained break above 84.60.
Dec 9 @ 8:47a UTC - If you took the topside break from Monday’s setup (see chart above) then you are 100+ in the profit. I stayed on the sidelines as my analysis called for a bearish break, not a bullish one. Better to miss out then miss your equity ;). Next strong resistance is at 84.35, but I am done with this pair for the week.
Dec 6 @ 9:53a - Pretty self-explanatory chart: we are in a bit of a consolidation period (ranging) between 82.5 and 83.2. There is some opportunity for scalping around those S/R levels, but I will wait for a break to the downside of 82.5 to start shorting with targets down to 81.5 and 81 over the week. I’m looking for a downside break as I expect USD weakness this week. Short from last week hit the stop (which had been moved to lock in profit on Dec 1 update). On a side note there was a great shorting opp last week as the pair broken its downside channel and then produced a 130+ pip drop the next day (Friday).
Dec 1 @ 9:03a UTC - Currently long from Tuesday’s trade (below) from 83.57 after a bullish 1h doji (Dec 1 @ 2:00a) and a bullish 1h inverted hammer (Dec 1 @3:00a). About +40 in profit now and stop has been moved to 83.6 to lock in profit.
November 29th @ 8:23a UTC: The USD/JPY offers perhaps the most compelling trade opportunity early in the week as the pair has been caught in a bullish channel for weeks now, we just had another bullish break above 83.50 and overall we expect USD strength to continue. I will look to enter long above 83.50, former support and now resistance, on a good CP signal with an open target.
6:57a UTC, November 26 2010: We’ve been booking profit off of the short bounce of the 61.8% retracement (83.8) all week, though we are now looking for renewed USD strength as the pair breaks above. We are looking for the top of the bullish channel to be challenged around 84.5 *currently*, though we will remain flat before the weekend and in these thin markets.
Recap: UJ has been one of our most reliable pairs for months now, steadily dropping over 1000 pips as traders dare the Bank of Japan to intervene to weaken the yen (to help exports, basically). If you sold nearly any rally you would have left with a profitable trade, but certain candlesticks have been more profitable than others. Specifically shooting stars and SMALL dojis have been great CandlePRO signals to sell over the weeks, while hanging men have been INEFFECTIVE as shorting signals.
February 7th @ 7:38 UTC – We are looking to get short on a support break with targets at 20/20/25/30 for 95 pips profit.
February 3rd @ 7:50 UTC - Our support held yesterday so no trade was taken on UChf. It is Friday and we don’t trade on Fridays due to the volatility that generally accompanies the low volume. We have put aggressive setups and S/R lines on the chart above, and all alerts/PRO features will continue to work as normal.
February 2nd @ 6:29 UTC - We mentioned yesterday that UChf offered “the most promising setup of all” and we were right – our primary break of support occurred at 9202 and dropped 90 pips. That drop just missed our last target at +95 pips and hit our tightened SL at +70 (third target). Price is currently close to horizontal support around 0.9110. We will look to get short on a break of this support for our primary setup with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. Aggressive traders may also look to take longs on bounces off this support targeting 20/50 pips at a time.
February 1st @ 7:55 UTC - We stayed flat yesterday as promised, and today UChf offers perhaps the most promising setup of all with a technical double bottom in place on the 4h chart and a solid resistance at 9240 that we will look to get long on a break. Long targets at 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit. We will also look to get short on a break of rising support (right blue line) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit.
January 31st @ 6:03 UTC - Our rising support broke at 9181 to activate yesterday’s primary trade. We are closing out at current price for +50 profit. There is not a good S/R line at the moment for us to trade but we will update the charts as soon as there is a falling resistance or rising support worth trading (email alerts will be sent out). Sidelines for now.
January 30th @ 12:21 UTC Intraday Update – Nice clean downtrend and a nice clean rising support means we are looking to get short on a break of that support with targets at 20/25/30/30 for 105 pips profit. Traders could look to get long above support taking 20/40 pips at a time – we will pass on this thin end-of-month volume.
January 27th @ 8:33 UTC – The chart above has also been updated with our aggressive trading ideas. We normally don’t trade on Fridays due to the higher volatility caused by the lower volume of Fridays. CandlePRO and Swing signals will continue to function as normal for PRO members.
January 25th @ 6:21 UTC - Pair did rise to 9300 yesterday (and drop for +30) but we never got any confirmation so we remain flat. Today price is ranging between 9230-9300 and we will look to trade a breakout in either direction (topside break of resistance or bottom break of support) with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips.
January 24th @ 8:52 UTC - It is a good thing we recognized our limits and sat out yesterday: if we had gone for anything it would have been a long after the bullish break last week, which obviously would have been a losing trade. Chart is a little bit clearer now (just a bit) as bears clearly remain intact and in control on this pair, giving us the opportunity to get short if price rises to 9300 with candlestick confirmation. Our short targets will be 20/25/25/30 for 100 pips profit. We will also look to close and get long on our short if we see a break above with 9300 with (tight) targets at 15/20/25/30 for 90 pips.
January 23rd @ 5:35 UTC - We finally saw a bullish break to the bearish channel we were tracking last week, so our short-term outlook is bullish but the chart is very mixed at the moment so we will sit the day out on this pair and wait for higher probability setups to develop.
January 19th @ 11:18 UTC - No trades taken yesterday as the UChf continued to drop like a rock on dollar weakness. We are tracking an aggressive falling resistance (blue line) and will look to get long above it on a break with a tight SL and targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit.
January 18th @ 7:22 UTC - Our short from yesterday closed out at +30, followed by our long which got close to +30 before hitting our tightened SL for -10. Such is the way with swing trading! Keep your losses small and let your profits run when you can! No good setups on this pair at the moment; we will sit this pair out until better S/R lines develop with higher probability trades.
January 17th @ 10:15 UTC - Yesterday’s short on the support break is about +50 in the profit at the moment, and we have tightened SL to +30. We will also look to close and get long on a break of the very aggressive falling resistance (last blue line) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit.
January 16th @ 6:16 UTC – UChf is in a tight range at the moment and we will look to get long on a resistance break or short on a support break with targets at 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit. We will move our SL early and often, however, to minimize risk on this aggressive setup.
January 13th @ 9:20 UTC - We may have been a bit too hasty in tightening our stop-loss yesterday as we walked away from our short with only +20 after the trade temporarily turned against us and hit our tightened SL. Overall the pair dropped 120+ pips from our entry point meaning our targets would have been easily hit had we stayed in. We were a bit gun shy on the trade, however, as the previous support break had turned against us for -50 on the false break. Friday’s aggressive setups shown on chart above – as usual we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and greater risk of volatility!
January 12@ 10:01 UTC - Our short from yesterday got stopped out at -50 as the pair rallied to the upside against our break. However we have another break of the same support on our hands at the moment (emails went out at 9526 which has gotten +30 into the profit already. We have tightened our SL to -10 and are targeting 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit on the trade.
January 11th @ 9:26 UTC - We are short at current price (9489) off of the support that just occurred (see chart above; email was sent out for UChf S/R subscribers) with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
January 10th @ 16:02 UTC INTRADAY UPDATE – We did get our long activated yesterday as price finally broke our falling trend resistance just under 9500. Price has currently returned to these levels after dropping several times and we are closing out at current levels (break even) as the pair has not been reacting as we would have liked. There are no other setups worth taking on this pair at the moment, with the exception of a possible long off of 9450 (proximity alert) with good candlestick confirmation.
January 9th @ 9:42 UTC – UChf has a nice falling trend resistance forming (top blue line) that we are waiting to get long on a break above with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips profit. We are passing on the aggressive short on a break under support for now as the pair is pretty oversold on the hourlies so follow through could be limited.
January 6th @ 9:33 UTC - The chart above has also been updated with our aggressive trading ideas. We normally don’t trade on Fridays, and with the first NFP of 2012 due out today we consider any trading to be extremely aggresive and will sit today out. CandlePRO and Swing signals will continue to function as normal for PRO members.
January 5th @ 7:34 UTC - UChf was the only pair that cooperated nicely yesterday as our primary trade was triggered on the topside break of falling trend resistance at 9371 (when alert was sent out). Pair jumped up +75 pips rather quickly after that and we closed out after price began to turn against us at +40. If you are still in the trade it is hovering around +55 currently. For today we are only looking to get long on a break of horizontal resistance at 9450, with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips profit. There is an aggressive short to be had under 9450 but we will pass on this setup as we are dollar bullish at the moment.
January 4th @ 10:00 UTC - No trade was triggered yesterday as falling resistance was never broken to trigger the primary and, unless you took the last proximity alert a few hours ago, never got close enough for a resistance short either. We are looking to get both short and long today: we will look to get long on a break above falling trend resistance (top blue line on chart above) or short on a break below rising support (bottom blue line) with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
January 3rd 2012 @ 6:27 UTC – UChf is consolidating withing a triangle wedge pattern to start 2012 and we are primarily looking to get long on a topside break of the top falling trend resistance (currently at 9400 and falling) with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips profit. We will also look to get short on a bounce off the underside of resistance with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit.
December 29th @ 6:44 UTC - Aggressive setups shown on chart above! We will not be trading today as there are only two days left in 2011 and markets are whisper thin, meaning even slight rumors could whip you out of a position right now. Aggressive setups are shown on the chart above for you brave souls looking to trade these dangerous waters.
Signals will resume again Tuesday, January 3rd and we will embark on yet another year together! Thanks for making PipHut the #1 forex community year after year – we would be lost without you all :). CandlePRO and PRO S/R Breaks and Bounces will continue to work as normal and S/R charts will be updated for PRO members.
See you in 2012!
December 28th @ 7:48 UTC - UChf did not break out of its S/R channels yesterday on the light volume so our trade setups remain the same: “We are tracking topside resistance at 9400 and support at 9330 and will look to trade a breakout in either direction for 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will move our SL early and often in this light end of year volume to lock in profits and minimize potential losses.”
December 27th @ 7:19 UTC - We are tracking topside resistance at 9400 and support at 9330 and will look to trade a breakout in either direction for 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will move our SL early and often in this light end of year volume to lock in profits and minimize potential losses.
December 22nd @ 8:05 UTC - We will not be trading today due to the light holiday + end of year volume. Light volume tends to create volatile and unpredictable markets. Normal analysis will resume Tuesday, December 27th, though we will continue to update the S/R Charts and S/R alerts + CandlePRO alerts will continue to operate normally. Happy Holidays and see you on Tuesday! Aggressive setups shown on chart above.
December 21st @ 9:28 UTC - Support break emails went out at 9340 (if you are subscribed to UChf S/R breaks) and that short has gotten up to 80+ in the profit (currently at +60). We have tightened our SL to +50 to lock in profit. That trade aside we are tracking a new falling resistance (blue line above) and will look to get long on the pair if that resistance is broken with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips. There is also opportunity for shorts below that resistance with smaller timeframe (15m and 30m) candlepro signals with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips.
December 20th @ 9:08 UTC - UChf has been flirting with our horizontal support all day, kicking our proximity alerts if you are subscribed, and there were pips to be had if you were taking small longs off the bounces but we remain flat looking for a break of 9350 with targets at 20/20/25/30 for 95 pips profit. UCHF S/R notification subscribers will get an email alert, of course. There is an opportunity for aggressive longs on top of this level but we will pass on these for now as the recent momentum has been turning downward.
December 19th @ 10:42 UTC - UChf has a nice horizontal support at 9350 that we will look to get short on a break below with targets at 20/20/25/30 for 95 pips profit. UCHF S/R notification subscribers will get an email alert, of course. There is an opportunity for aggressive longs on top of this level but we will pass on these for now as the recent momentum has been turning downward.
December 15th @ 9:41 UTC - All targets were barely hit on long from yesterday for +80 as the pair continues to skyrocket upward. At the moment there are no setups on the chart appealing enough for us to enter on and we will sit this pair out until better setups appear. In general we are bullish on dips.
December 14th @ 9:08 UTC - Our long just got hit our tightened SL +50 pips profit before skyrocketing upward again. We have entered another long on the break of our aggressive falling resistance targeting 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit – however the pair is very overbought and we will look to move our SL early and often to minimize our risk to a major downward correction.
December 13th @ 6:46 UTC - Our break happened (and an email was sent out for S/R alerts) at 9302 so our long got +80 pips in the profit. It has dipped a little since then but we are staying in the trade with a SL of +50 locked in or until the new blue rising trend support is broken – at which time we will look to close and get short on the break, targeting 20/25/30/30 for 105 pips profit.
December 12th @ 9:45 UTC - We are waiting for a bullish breakout of this pair as price is currently hovering just below resistance to get long. On a bullish break we will target 20/20/25/30 pips for 95 pips profit. We are bullish on the pair in general as it is currently forming a bullish ascending triangle, though we would still take a break of the aggressive rising support for a quick ride down and targets at 20/20/25/25 pips for 90 pips profit.
December 8th @9:58 UTC - We are not trading today due to the new features rollout announced this morning and also because of the extreme market choppiness we expect from the EU Summit. Our chart has been updated above with aggressive setups and of course CandlePRO, breakout alerts and bounce alerts will continue to work just fine :).
December 7th @ 8:08 UTC - Our long on the break above horizontal resistance at 9250 gave us a pop of 45 pips (our second target), though we closed out at +20 as the pair reversed back down. We are currently watching a tight consolidation with an imminent downside break. We will short the downside break of blue rising support (currently at 9235 and rising) with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips, however the pair currently looks very bullish with the most recent bearish action looking like a bullish flag. We will therefor be quick to stop and reverse or get long on a break above falling resistance (currently at 9265 and falling) with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips profit.
December 6th @ 7:05 UTC - Pair is consolidating in an ascending triangle and we will look to take a break in either direction though our preferred direction is down today. Primary setup is a bearish break of rising blue support, currently at 9190 and rising, with targets at 20/25/25/30 for 100 pips profit. On a topside break of 9250 we will target 20/25/30/30 for 105 pips. Both breaks will produce email alerts with the new S/R alert feature.
December 2nd @ 9:43 UTC - We are not trading today as it is Friday. Friday’s tend to have lower volume and higher volatility. Aggressive setups shown on chart above for you brave souls. Have a great weekend!
December 1st @ 10:27 UTC - Our trade slowly got to +25 yesterday, enough for us to move our SL to break even and avoid losses on the trade. Remember: keep your losses small and let your profits run. Setups don’t look that tempting on UChf for the moment and we will sit on the sidelines of this pair today and wait for a better S/R line to appear. Aggressive setups shown on chart above.
November 30th @ 9:08 UTC - our long from falling trend resistance (top blue line) is at -15 right now as we entered on the break at 9230. We are still hanging on and looking to target 20/20/30/30 pips for 100 pips. SL is at 9175 currently but we will look to aggressively move up if/when our TP targets are hit. There are more conservative setups to be had if you are still looking to enter near the bottom rising trend support line (blue), currently around 9175, targeting 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips profit.
November 29th @ 9:30 UTC - UChf is in a tight consolidation right now as its triangle space is rapidly coming to a close (see intersection of blue S/R lines above and price action wedged in there). We will look to get long on a break above the falling resistance (currently at 9940) with targets at 20/20/30/30 pips for 100 pips or short below support (currently 9190) with targets at 20/25/25/30 pips for 100 pips profit.
November 28th @ 12:08 UTC - We have seen a significant drop in the UChf the last few hours, which is to be expected on the recent drop in USD across all pairs, but the pair is sitting on support right now and we will look for opportunities to get long near 9170 on MULTIPLE CANDLE signals (3 in up, 3 out up, etc) on the 1h and above timeframe with targets at 20/25/30/30 for 105 pips profit. We will also take a short below 9160 with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips profit (and we will close this short if the break is not sustained as usual).
November 25th @ 7:49 UTC - Chart updated with aggressive setups above. Yesterday was a major bank holiday and most major traders are not trading today – this creates thin market conditions and we will not be trading today due to the greatly increased risk of volatility. Have a good weekend and we will see you Monday!
November 24th @ 6:52 UTC - U.S. Banks are closed today for Thanksgiving. With the banks closed the next two days will be very low volume, and that low volume can lead to big swings on low liquidity or just hours of watching the pair barely move. Either way, our main trading plan is to take the time off and you should too! We have updated the chart above with trading setups (we consider all trading especially aggressive/risky these two days and will not be trading ourselves). PRO members will get all charts update for all pairs today and tomorrow.
November 23rd @ 8:33 UTC - Pair continues to consolidate in a flag pattern (bearish channel) which is ultimately a bullish signal but there is plenty of room for some volatility within the channel. In line with the flag pattern our primary trade will be a long on a break above topside resistance (currently at 9180 and falling) with targets at 20/30/30/30 for 110 pips profit. We will also look for bearish candlesticks to get short off of under the resistance, targeting the bottom support of the channel about 120 pips away. We are bullish on the pair in the medium-term, bearish short-term.
November 22nd @ 6:24 UTC - Our long yesterday got a little into the profit before turning against us and was ultimately closed at -30 pips after a big dip and now some consolidation. That consolidation appears to be in a flag pattern (bearish channel) which is ultimately a bullish signal but there is plenty of room for some volatility within the channel. In line with the flag pattern our primary trade will be a long on a break above topside resistance (currently at 9215 and falling) with targets at 20/30/30/30 for 110 pips profit. We will also look for bearish candlesticks to get short off of under the resistance, targeting the bottom support of the channel about 120 pips away. We are bullish on the pair in the medium-term, bearish short-term.
November 21st @ 7:56 UTC - UChf was our pip workhorse last week (except for Thursday) and we will look to continue riding it today. We have just gotten long on the break above the blue falling resistance on the above chart at current price (91.90) with targets at 9210, 9230, 9360 and 9390 for 100 pips profit. We will close the trade if the break is not sustained on candle close. We are bullish on the pair today technically, and will use this trade as a risk hedge against our EU short.
November 18th @ 8:21 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from PRO Analysis! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
November 17th @ 9:12 UTC - Uchf finally failed to cooperate with our support break yesterday. The trade got 35 pips into the profit but then rallied and hit our tightened SL for -10 pips (we were holding open for the ultimate target of 100 pips). Today there is no clean S/R at the moment and therefore no great setups for this pair. We are in general bullish on the pair and the recent price action suggest a bullish continuation channel but we need more evidence to be sure. Aggressive setups shown with arrows on the chart above but we will remain flat until better S/R appears.
November 16th @ 9:10 UTC - UChf has been one of our start performers over the past several weeks with very clean S/R lines and clean breaks for 100+ pips at a time. Our primary was finally triggered a few hours ago (short on a break below the blue rising support) which occurred at 9175 with targets at 9155, 9130, 9105 and 9075 for 100 pips profit. As always we will look for new falling resistance line to form and will close and get long on a break above that new falling resistance line.
November 15th @ 8:04 UTC - Picture perfect trade yesterday as the 04:00-08:00 4h candle closed as a good hammer – which we did NOT enter on but it gave us more confidence to take our long on the break above 9030 from yesterday’s signal. All targets were hit on that long for 105 pips profit. Today we are once again tracking a good S/R line – this one the blue support above. We will look to get short on a break below – currently at 9090 and rising – with targets at 9070, 9045, 9015 and 8985 for 105 pips. There are also opportunities for small timeframe longs on bounces off the support, especially with 15m and 30m bullish candlepro signals.
November 14th @ 8:21 UTC - We are tracking a falling trend resistance (blue line above) and looking to get short below it and long above it. For the long we are looking to enter on a break above 0.9030 with targets at 9050, 9075, 9100 and 9130 for 105 pips profit. If we see a nice bearish candlestick under 9020 then we will target 9000, 8975, 8945 and 8915 for 105 pips profit.
November 11th @ 7:14 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from PRO Analysis! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
November 10th @ 9:05 UTC - Another great UChf trade yesterday as the pair rose quickly to hit all our target for 100 pips profit. As promised we would get short when a new support line appeared and was broken and we have done that with the blue support line shown above around current price (9090) with targets at 9070, 9045, 9015 and 8985 for 105 pips profit. We will look to close and get long when a new resistance line occurs and is broken to the topside.
November 9th @ 5:16 UTC - picture perfect trade so far as the pair broke our rising trend support on the 07:00 candle at 9015, quickly dropping for 95 pips profit. We closed when the 0:00 candle 4h formed a nice Hammer AND Three Inside Up, breaking the blue falling trend support in the process. We are long from current price (8950) after that break with targets at 8975, 9000, 9025 and 9050 for 100 pips profit. UCHF has been cooperating very nicely with S/R lines so if a new rising trend support forms on this rise then we will look to close and get short on a break below it.
November 8th @ 5:00 UTC - Nearly every bullish 30m signal was good for 30-90 pips yesterday as the pair continued to bounce upward along its steep rising trend support line. The primary was never triggered as the pair never broke below that support. Today setups are similar (breakout below, longs above) but the entry/exit points have obviously changed as the support has moved upward quite a bit – support is currently at 0.90. We will target 20/25/25/25 pips on the downside breakout, so from 0.90 we will target 8980, 8955, 8930 and 8905 for 95 pips profit. There is also room, or course, for longs on the topside of the support but we will not look to get long after a bearish candle and only close to the support level.
November 7th @ 8:31 UTC - UCHF is in a steep uptrend right now (shown as a blue rising trend support on the chart above) and our primary trade this morning will be to get short on a break below this support level. Support is currently at 8930 but, because the uptrend is so steep, you need to check your chart every candle close as the support level will continue to rise meaning we will look for entries higher and higher after every close. We will target 20/25/25/25 pips on the downside breakout, so from 8930 we will target 8950, 8975, 9000 and 9025 for 95 pips profit. There is also room, or course, for longs on the topside of the support but we will not look to get long after a bearish candle and only close to the support level.
November 4th @ 4:31 UTC - Our breakout short from yesteday’s signal got +50 into the profit yesterday and then turned against us, hitting our tightened stop loss for -15 pips. No trading today because of the Friday rule but aggressive setups are shown on the chart above and, other than EU, this pair has the cleanest setups out of all the pairs.
November 3rd @ 5:49 UTC - The dip down to the 8750-8800 support zone was short lived as the pair quickly bounced back up 75+ pips – bouncing too quickly for us to get in a long position. We are currently tracking a blue rising trend support line (shown above) and will take an aggressive short on a break below it – that support is currently at 8830 and rising with each candle that closes. From 8830 we will target 25 pip chunks (first target is 20 pips away): 8810, 8785, 8760, 8735 for 95 pips profit.
November 2nd @ 6:02 UTC - We took a few smaller timeframe longs on the bounce along rising trend support, but stayed flat on our more substantial trades as the pair never dipped enough for us to take a good long off of. The pair is overbought at the moment but with a strong uptrend so we will look for reasons to get long on any good dips to the 8750–8800 support zone with candlestick confirmation and targets at 8825, 8850, 8875 and 8900 for 100 pips profit.
November 1st @ 6:00 UTC - We stayed flat yesterday as the pair never dropped to our entry support. Today we are tracking an even more aggressive rising trend support (top blue line) and will look to take an aggressive short on a break below this level (currently at 8750) with targets at 8730, 8705, 8675 and 8645 for 105 pips profit. We will also be looking for short term opportunities to get long at 8760 support, or on a more substantial dip to 87.00 support. Both longs will target 100 pips profit in 25 pip chunks from entry.
October 31st @ 7:24 UTC - We are tracking a blue rising trend support line on USDCHF this morning and will look for aggressive longs on bounces off of this support, however the medium term tech picture is still bearish and we will look for rallies to 88.00 – 88.30 to get short on with candle confirmation and targets at 87.75, 87.50, 87.25 and 87.00 for 100 pips potential.
October 28th @ 7:59 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from CP signals! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
October 27th @ 5:58 UTC - For the second time this week we got caught trying to get long – our long on a sustained break above 8820 was triggered yesterday (and got 15 pips in the profit) on the 12:00 candle and then turned against us for -50 pips. We are looking for a short as our primary today on a rise to 8900 with candlestick confirmation and targets at 8875, 8850, 8825 and 8800 for 100 pips profit. We will not be looking for longs.
October 26th @ 3:38 UTC - flat yesterday as 8820 held firm as we never had a sustained break to get long on. We are keeping the same trades as yesterday though as the pair barely moved and the technical picture remains the same: Key pivot is currently at 8820 and on a sustained break above we will target 8840, 8875, 8900 and 8930 for 110 pips profit. We will look for shorts on a rally above 8900 with 1h and 4h candlestick confirmation targeting another bearish move down to 8800 for 100 pips.
October 25th @ 7:14 UTC - We got caught long yesterday on the false break above 8870 and took that trade on the chin for -50 per lot. We are tracking the blue falling trend resistance today and will look to get long above. Key pivot is currently at 8820 and on a sustained break above we will target 8840, 8875, 8900 and 8930 for 110 pips profit. We will look for shorts on a rally above 8900 with 1h and 4h candlestick confirmation targeting another bearish move down to 8800 for 100 pips.
October 24th @ 6:05 UTC - We are tracking a blue falling trend resistance for the UChf and will look for very simple setups: short below and long above. A break above 8870 would target 8890, 8920, 8950 and 8980 for 110 pips potential. Shorts around 8850 target: 8830, 8805, 8775 and 8750 for 100 pips profit.
October 21st @ 7:12 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from CP signals! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
October 20th @ 6:44 UTC - We are looking to get short on a break below blue rising trend support, currently at 0.900 with targets at 0.8980, 8955, 8925 and 8900 for 100 pips profit. There is also room for aggressive longs on dips to rising trend support with 15m and 30m candlestick confirmation are targets up to 9150.
October 19th @ 6:24 UTC - Our short on the downside break of 8900 hit the first target at 8880 for 20 pips and then reversed to hit our SL at break even. We then took a long at 8875 on the sustained break above falling trend resistance we were tracking from the 17th’s chart which got 70 pips into the profit. We are currently flat but looking to get short around current price level (8975) on a good candlestick signal with targets at 8950, 8925, 8900 and 8870 for 105 pips potential. We will watch 8900 and 8820 closely as they are good support levels for possibly opportunities to close and reverse to get long (see chart above).
October 17th @ 7:43 UTC - 8900 is a key level on UChf and we will be watching it closely today as it is the neckline for a potential head and shoulders formation on the 4h charts. If it holds then we will look to get long around 8900 with good 1h or 4h candlestick confirmation targeting 8925, 8955, 8985 and 9025 for 125 pips potential – we will also keep a lot open for a challenge of 9100 as that is closer to where the right shoulder should form. If we do see a downside break of 8900 – which looks more likely by the minute – then we will take an aggressive short position targeting 8880, 8855, 8825 and 8800 for 100 pips potential. Pair appears to be turning around or stalling out and we are more bearish at the moment than bullish.
October 14th @ 6:30 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and good pips this week!
October 13th @ 5:38 UTC - Our analysis was dead on as we were looking for a break of 9050 to produce a nice drop, but we were playing it conservative and looking a sustained break which closed well below 9050 and killed the Reward/Risk ratio for our trade so we did not enter. Today we are once again tracking a rising trend support (shown in blue above) but we will instead look for a break below 8900 or a sustained break below 8935 (whichever occurs first). From 8900 targets at 8880, 8855, 8825 and 8800 for 100 pips potential. There is room for aggressive longs above rising trend support.
October 12th @ 6:29 UTC - We continue to track the same rising blue support line from yesterday as no sustained break to the downside means that no trade was entered (no short trade that is – of course there are always long to be had on the topside of a support line with smaller timeframe candlepro signals :). The extended consolidation period and the failed bull rally midday add to the likelihood that a downside break will produce a pop and so that will continue to be our primary trade: short on a sustained break of the blue rising trend support (currently at 0.9050) with targets at 9025, 9000, 8970 and 8940 for 110 pips potential.
October 11th @ 7:54 UTC - we were able to get in a single short on our aggressive shorting plan from yesterday but only for 30 pips even as the pair continued to drop for over 130 pips (there weren’t many rallies). We are currently tracking another rising trend support (bottom blue line) and will look to get short on a sustained brea below 9010 with targets at 8990, 8965, 8935 and 8905 for 105 pips potential.
October 10th @ 9:38 UTC - We are tracking a new falling trend resistance (shown in blue above) and will look to establish aggressive shorts on rallies to the resistance currently at 9160 with bearish 30m and 1h candlepro signals and targets at 9135, 9110, 9080 and 9050 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to get long on a sustained break above 9160 with targets at 9185, 9215, 9245 and 9275 for 115 pips potential.
October 7th @ 8:30 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday.
October 6th @ 7:45 UTC - No trades taken yesterday as no dip occurred. Today we are tracking a much more clear cut rising trend support (blue line) so we are switching our strategy to a break/swing trade: we will look for reasons to get long above rising trend support on 30m/1h/4h signals as we are short term bullish. That support is currently at 9240 and our ideal targets are 9265, 9295, 9325 and 9355 for 115 pips potential. We will also look to get short on a sustained break below 9200 with targets at 9170, 9140, 9110 and 9080 for 120 pips potential.
October 5th @ 6:45 UTC - We are looking to get long on a dip to 9030-9060 support zone with candlepro confirmation and targets (from 9030) at 9055, 9085, 9115 and 9145 for 115 pips potential. We are not looking for shorts at the moment (same as yesterday) as the charts are still extremely bullish and we will not begin to look for reversals until bears show a little more depth.
October 4th @ 4:55 UTC - All targets hit on our long from yesterday for 110 pips profit as the pair just scraped our final target at 9210. Our general analysis remains the same and we will continue to look for reasons to get long above the blue rising trend support shown on the chart above, currently around 9150, with candlestick confirmation and targets at 9170, 9195, 9225 and 9255 for 105 pips potential. We are not looking for shorts at the moment, even on a sustained break below rising trend support as the bullish uptrend has been strong for awhile now (though aggressive traders may look there regardless :).
October 3rd @8:43 UTC - We have gotten long on this pair after the topside break to the orange pennant that we were tracking from last week around current price (9100) and we are targeting 9125, 9150, 9180 and 9210 for 110 pips potential. Our SL is currently at 9115 – well below where the price would go to close the weekend gap. We will look to tighten as our targets are hit. If price does reverse there is room for an aggressive short on a sustained break below blue rising trend support at 9070 (we will stick with our long for right now) with targets at 9045, 9020, 8995 and 8970 for 100 pips potential.
September 30th @ 5:05 UTC - Pair continues to consolidate in its pennant formation and, though we won’t be trading today because it is Friday, our primary trade would remain the same for you aggressive traders: “on a downside breakout and will look to get short below 8900 with targets at 8880, 8855, 8825, 8800 and 8770 for 130 pips potential.”
September 29th @ 6:45 UTC - Pair is consolidating in a pennant formation which is typically a continuation pattern so in this case the trend is bullish. However given the nature of the consolidation along the bottom support we will look to take a breakout trade in either direction. We actually prefer a downside breakout and will look to get short below 8900 with targets at 8880, 8855, 8825, 8800 and 8770 for 130 pips potential.
September 28th *Intraday Update* @ 15:12 UTC - Our long from Monday got stopped out for -80 pips and we are switching our primary trade to a breakout strategy above aggressive falling trend resistance at 0.9000 – we will look to get long on a sustained break above this level with targets at 9025, 9050, 9075 and 9100 for 100 pips potential. Around 9070-9100 we will look to close our long on bearish candlepro signals (aggressive traders could look to get short there). There is also an opportunity for aggressive shorts on rises to 9890 resistance zone with targets back down to 9800 for 90 pips potential.
September 27th @ 6:38 UTC - In line with our primary setup from yesterday we just recently establish a long at 9025 after a series of bullish 4h candlesticks in candlepro. We are targeting: 9045, 9075, 9100 and 9130 for 105 pips potential. For traders still looking to enter we are generally bullish on the pair but we are keeping a tight stop at 8975 and a sustained break below this level will cause us to stop and reverse for a downside challenge of 8900.
September 26th @ 6:10 UTC - UChf has been slowly climbing up along its rising trend support line over the past week, which we appreciate because it makes our trade setups pretty straight forward: we will look to establish longs on dips to the 0.90-0.9020 support with candlepro confirmation candlesticks and targets at 9020, 9045, 9075 and 9100 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to take an aggressive short on a sustained break below 0.90 with targets at 8975, 8950, 8930 and 8900 for another 100 pips potential.
September 23 @ 7:01 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. Please see the chart below for the updated S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday.
September 22 @ 8:13 UTC - The pair continued to be bullish yesterday (as expected), breaking the 9000 barrier (we mentioned yesterday we were looking for this level by week’s end. We will look for a dip to rising trend support to get long, currently at 8900, with candlepro confirmation and targets at 8925, 8950, 8975 and 9000 for 100 pips. We are also adding a short setup on a sustained break below 8900 with targets at 8875, 8850, 8825 and 8800 for 100 pips potential.
September 21 @ 6:08 UTC - We took this pair on the chin yesterday as the false breakout below the rising trend support caused us to stop and reverse on our long for a double loss. Today there aren’t any clear S/R lines on the charts so we will skip the normal swing trade and instead look for opportunities to get long on any good dips to 8800 support with candlepro confirmation and targets up to 9000 before week’s end.
September 20 @ 6:09 UTC - We took an aggressive single-lot long just recently at 8850 (around current price) on a 4h bullish engulfing that occurred two candles back in CandlePRO as the pair appears to be bouncing off the blue rising trend support shown above. We have a fairly tight stop at 8810 and we are targeting 8875, 8900, 8925 and 8950 for 100 pips potential. We will look to stop and reverse if we see a sustained break below 8800 with targets down to 8700 for 100 pips potential.
September 19 @ 7:00 UTC - We are looking for opportunities to get long on the UChf today as the pair opened above the falling trend resistance that we had been tracking for most of last week (blue line on chart above). We are looking as close as 87.50 with candlepro confirmation on any dips with targets at 87.75, 88.00, 88.30 and 88.60 for 110 pips potential. We will watch for solid 4h CandlePRO signals basically anywhere between current price and 86.70 to take aggressive longs on.
September 16 @ 5:21 UTC - Charts udpated with trade setups. Written analysis forthcoming in a few hours today but we wanted to get the charts into your hands. Since today is friday we will not be trading, and view most trading as much more aggressive than normal as Friday trading tends to be light and volatile. Safe pipping and see you next week!
September 15 @ 3:21 UTC - Pair continues to consolidate in a bullish flag pattern (with a bearish consolidation channel) and we are keeping our primary trade from yesterday the same: long on the pair with a rally on a drop to 87.00 support + candlepro confirmation as our primary trade. Long targets from 87.00 @ 87.20, 87.50, 87.80 and 88.10 for 110 pips potential. We are adding a secondary trade: long on a sustained break above blue falling trend resistance at 88.25 with targets at 88.50, 88.75, 89.00 and 89.30 for 105 pips potential.
September 14 @ 7:30 UTC - Swissy is looking strong as the pair continues to hold its own pretty well in the face of a strong dollar on most other pairs. As a result we are still looking for a long near 87.00 and looking to get long in general: “We continue to look for opportunities to get long on the pair with a rally on a drop to 87.00 support + candlepro confirmation as our primary trade. Long targets from 87.00 @ 87.20, 87.50, 87.80 and 88.10 for 110 pips potential.”
September 13 @ 6:16 UTC - the pair limped through it’s rising trend support yesterday (blue line) and has not yet produced much of a drop as we expected. Our primary trade is still intact from yesterday as price hardly moved today: “We continue to look for opportunities to get long on the pair with a rally on a drop to 87.00 support + candlepro confirmation as our primary trade. Long targets from 87.00 @ 87.20, 87.50, 87.80 and 88.10 for 110 pips potential.”
September 12 @ 5:23 UTC - the flag/pennant pattern we pointed out on Tuesday continues to pay dividends as the pair rose ~200 pips in the following days. We continue to look for opportunities to get long on the pair with a rally on a drop to 87.00 support + candlepro confirmation as our primary trade. Long targets from 87.00 @ 87.20, 87.50, 87.80 and 88.10 for 110 pips potential. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long on dips to blue rising trend support on chart above for short-term traders, skimming 10-15 pips off at a time.
September 9 @ 5:05 UTC - Our short got stopped out for around -80 pips but, as laid out in yesterday’s analysis, we did go long on the BREAK above 8670 and we closed out for +80 so we are net zero on the pair for the day. Today is Friday and we are sidelined, as usual, due to Friday’s customary low volume and high volatility, but for those brave traders looking to squeeze out a few more pips before the weekend we are generally bullish on the pair. The 700+ pip rally from a few days ago put up a large bullish flag pole and pennant pattern (see yesterday’s chart above for what we were and still are looking at). There was a topside break to that pennant but so far bulls have no shown much follow through. Our preferred strategy for today would be to get long on any significant dips and good candlepro signals re-targeting the 8750 highs of yesterday.
September 8 @ 7:47 UTC - We are still short with our SL above 8650 as the price did not move very much yesterday after the strong 700+ pip rally. Our targets are 8550, 8525, 8500, 8470 for 100 pips potential. Our short is an aggressive one as the pair appears to be forming a pennant after the long flag pole and the technical direction for this type of chart setup is to the upside. On a break above 8670 or a sustained break above 8650 we will look to close our short and get long with targets at 8675, 8700, 8730 and 8760 for 110 pips potential.
September 7 @ 3:49 UTC - Pair never dropped long enough to get in a long and the pair is currently consolidating underneath 8600 where strong WEEKLY resistance can be found (you can just seen this weekly resistance as the black line on the chart above. We took a short off the last 4h bearish engulfing cp signal at 00:00 (preceded by a bearish doji at 20:00 yesterday) at 8570. Our targets are 8550, 8525, 8500, 8470 for 100 pips potential. We are keeping our stop relatively close as there is a lot of bullish momentum right now but we believe that a pullback to 8400 levels today is entirely possible. There is an opportunity for a long on a dip to 8400 levels as well, targeting a rise back to 8500.
September 6 @ 8:14 UTC - MASSIVE rally in USD/CHF as the pair has rallied for over 700 pips in just a few hours! There is some strong bullish momentum at work here and we are looking to get long on any dip with decent candlepro confirmation. We will first look around 8330 support as the most conservative trade with targets at 8355, 8385, 8415 and 8445 for 115 pips potential. We are also looking for an aggressive opportunity to get long around 84.50 support with targets at 84.70, 84.95, 85.25 and 85.55 for 105 pips potential.
September 5 @ 6:31 UTC - No signal for today as US Banks are closed for Labor Day. With banks closed the markets will be much thinner than usual. We expect price to drift along with no clear direction until money re-enters the market Tuesday, and we will hold off trading until then. Of course, there is always the alternative in thin markets: that a few players will push the exchange rate further than normal and there will be increased volatility.
September 2 @ 3:26 UTC - The pair broke below 7950 without a 4h bullish CP signal so we remained flat. While we are ultimately bullish on this pair and will not be trading since it is Friday there is an opportunity for an aggressive short at currently price level (~7930) with targets at 7905, 7885, 7855 and 7825 for 105 pips potential, because the break below the blue rising trend support line is a very bearish short term signal.
September 1 @ 5:53 UTC - This pair behaved as expected yesterday: it continued to bend down to 7950 resistance (blue line on chart above) where we expect the pair to bounce a bit and we will look to establish a long with a 4h CP signal with targets at 79.70, 79.95, 80.25 and 80.55 for 105 pips potential.
August 31 @ 9:56 UTC - Uchf is finally turning down from its 8250 highs and we are currently looking for a re-challenge of .80 to get long on with targets at 8025, 8050, 8080 and 8110 for 110 pips potential. In general we are looking for bullish signals and will consider ANY good, bullish CP signal.
August 30 @ 10:25 UTC - Still flat on this pair as there has not been any convincing bullish or bearish candlestick signals or S/R breaks recently (we don’t enter trades without solid analysis / confirmation). The pair is definitely bullish on the daily charts after a break of the black intraday resistance line and so our primary trade will be to get short on a dip with .80 being the large round number and support we are watching. On a dip + candlestick confirmation to the .80 support we will target 8025, 8050, 8080 and 8110 for 110 pips potential. In general we are looking for bullish signals and will consider ANY good, bullish CP signal.
August 29 @ 7:07 UTC - UChf continues to move north without kicking up any bearish CP signals (lack of CP confirmation is good for keeping you OUT of bad trades as well) so we have remained on the sideline. The upside has accelerated though which means the bulls could soon lose strength with the right extinction burst. We are looking to sell the pair though around current price level (81.30-81.50) with bearish CP signals and targets at 81.30, 81.05, 80.80 and 80.50 for 100 pips potential.
August 26 @ 9:38 UTC - We have been tracking the same setup with this pair all week – short-term rising trend support (blue line) is approaching intraday resistance (black line) and we are looking to get short on some solid CP signals as we get closer to 0.80, or on a sustained break below 78.75 with targets down to 7750.
August 24 @ 9:12 UTC - Updated Chart above. UChf is reaching closer and closer to the daily and weekly falling trend resistance (black line on charts above) and the price has begun to, predictably, stall out ahead of this levels as bulls lighten their exposure to another bearish plunge. While timing is everything in forex, we will look to get short on a rally under this line at .8065 ( targets at 8040, 8015, 7990 and 7960 – though we will leave at least one lot open for a much deeper correction to 7300 over the week). We are also looking to get short on a sustained break below 7800 with targets at 7780, 7750, 7720 and 7690.
August 23 @ 7:35 UTC - yesterday’s analysis is still valid word for word as know significant S/R levels were broken. See updated chart above. Analysis: “UChf is reaching closer and closer to the daily and weekly falling trend resistance (black line on charts above) and the price has begun to, predictably, stall out ahead of this levels as bulls lighten their exposure to another bearish plunge. While timing is everything in forex, we will look to get short on a rally under this line at .8065 ( targets at 8040, 8015, 7990 and 7960 – though we will leave at least one lot open for a much deeper correction to 7300 over the week). We are also looking to get short on a sustained break below 7800 with targets at 7780, 7750, 7720 and 7690.”
August 22 @ 2:15 UTC - UChf is reaching closer and closer to the daily and weekly falling trend resistance (black line on charts above) and the price has begun to, predictably, stall out ahead of this levels as bulls lighten their exposure to another bearish plunge. While timing is everything in forex, we will look to get short on a rally under this line at .8065 ( targets at 8040, 8015, 7990 and 7960 – though we will leave at least one lot open for a much deeper correction to 7300 over the week). We are also looking to get short on a sustained break below 7800 with targets at 7780, 7750, 7720 and 7690.
August 19 @ 9:30 UTC - We do not trade on Fridays due to thin volume conditions in the markets on Fridays which can create choppy, volatile and unpredictable price action. GU and UChf trades got triggered yesterday but we will not open any new positions before the weekend. For those aggressive trader’s looking to brave it we have updated the chart above with trade setups we would be pursuing on a normal trading day. Happy pipping and we will see you on Monday.
August 18 @ 14:06 UTC - Intraday Update - UChf is very bearish on our medium term charts even though it appears to be a bullish consolidation pattern on the 1h charts. Medium term we are right underneath intraday falling trend resistance (black line on chart above). On the 1h charts we have a potential SHS (though the head is not much higher than the shoulders, so a triple top is probably the better term) and we are looking to take an aggressive short on a break of the 4h rising trend support shown in blue on the chart above. On a sustained break below 7900 we will target 7880, 7855, 7825 and 7800 for 100 pips potential.
August 17 @ 10:11 UTC - UCHf’s technical picture is not very clear today as the price action appears to in a bit of a tight range after the recent gains. The short-term trend appears to be up but we are not ready to fight the risk-aversion sentiment that has been giving the swissy strength so we will instead look for reasons to get short with good 1h and 4h bearish CandlePRO signals under 79.50.
August 16 @ 6:06 UTC - We got our short yesterday on the 10:00 candle as the pair closed 25 pips below 79.00 and hit all targets for 100 pips. We will leave yesterday’s chart up so you can see what we were looking for; for today we are looking for reasons to get short underneath 79.00 with good CP candlestick confirmation. We are still very bullish on the swissy.
August 15 @ 9:07 UTC - We are still very bearish on the UChf as we are bullish on Chf and the idea of a safe currency besides the USD. We will look to get short on a sustained break of 79.00 with targets at 78.75, 78.45, 78.15 and 77.85 for 115 pips potential. We are only looking to get short at this time.
August 12 @ 7:54 UTC - We do not trade on Fridays due to thin volume conditions in the markets on Fridays which can create choppy, volatile and unpredictable price action. Given this week’s volatility we expect the pair to behave more strangely than normal. For those aggressive trader’s looking to brave it we have updated the chart above with trade setups we would be pursuing on a normal trading day. Happy pipping and we will see you on Monday.
August 11 @ 9:33 UTC - No trade taken yesterday as the pair stayed above its rising trend support line (bottom yellow line on chart above). While the pair has continued to rise the result has been a bearish looking consolidation flag pattern and we will continue to favor shorts over longs. Our preferred short is on a sustained break of the rising trend support line currently around 7270 with targets at 7250, 7220, 7190 and 7160. We will also look for aggressive shorts on any rallies to be sold back down to the rising trend support level.
August 10 @ 6:24 UTC - We are bearish on the UChf as the swissy has been a great reserve currency alternative to the dollar and its ties to gold have also given it plenty of strength. We will look to get short on nearly any rally with CP confirmation, or short on a sustained break of 7160 with targets down to 7100 and 7065.
August 9 @ 14:41 UTC - Swissy has been extremely bearish recently (in line with our forecast) and we are going to continue looking for opportunities to sell on all timeframes. There is a nice falling trend resistance right now around 7560 that would offer a nice short on a rally, but we will also be watching support at 7475 with targets back down to 7350 over the rest of the week.
August 5 @4:50 UTC - It is Friday (with the increased volatility and low volume that Friday’s bring) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas (arrows represent trading ideas). Have a safe weekend and we’ll see you next week for an exciting week.
August 3 @ 4:47 UTC - Our short was booked for good pips yesterday and today we are looking to continue the selling as the charts appear extremely bearish. We will look to short any significant rallies (7750 is our primary), very good candlepro signals or breaks of support levels (we are tracking one now – yellow line on chart above). Ultimately we are looking for 7500 to be hit with the next 48 hours. Any break above 7800 is a bullish sign and we will close all shorts.
August 2 @ 5:20 UTC - As promised we stayed flat yesterday to allow the pair to develop a bit more technical direction and the bears came out in force. The pair has been bearish for weeks now but this latest drop gives a solid bearish technical picture on the 1h charts as well. We are looking for reasons to get short and we will look to short any rallies to the 7900 region with candlestick confirmation and targets at 7880, 7855, 7825 and 7800 for 100 pips potential. We are also looking to get short around current price level (7830) as the last falling trend resistance is at this level.
August 1 @ 7:07 UTC - UCHF 1h chart is a bit of a mess right now with the large drop at the end of last week and then the gap to open the week this week. In general we are bearish on the pair (more precisely we are bullish on the Swissy as it is a better safe haven currency than the USD in our opinion at the moment) and would look for reasons to get short. However with the 1h charts looking as choppy as they do above we will stand aside today and wait for more technical direction to emerge.
July 28 @ 7:37 UTC - We stopped (in profit) and longed around 8025 as promised yesterday and have recently closed for a 20 pip loss as bulls were unable to sustain the topside breakout rally were looking for. Today we are looking for an opportunity to get short on a sustained break below .8000 with targets at 7980, 7955, 7925 and 7900 for 100 pips potential. Otherwise we will look to get long above 8000 with CP confirmation and targets to 8075.
July 27 @ 7:19 UTC - Our short is still open from 8050 as the pair basically just treaded water (stayed in the same spot) yesterday. Our downside target is still 79.50 and we will still stop-and-long on a sustained break above 8020
July 26 @ 5:59 UTC - Our long hit its first target and then hit the tightened SL at break even (no loss, no gain) but our subsequent short at 8050 (CP confirmation at 21:00, 23:00 and 0:00) is 50 pips in the profit with an open target at 79.50. We will close on a sustained break back above 8020 and take an aggressive long. We will leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
July 25 @ 12:55 UTC (Intraday Update) - The Swissy is gaining lots of ground against the buck (and other currencies) as the likelihood of a US debt default increases, and it is hard to bet against it at this stage but we will be carefully watching our falling resistance levels for opportunities to get long. If there is news of a US debt deal we will be much more likely to go long with heavier position too. Current resistance is 8050 – we will look to get long on a sustained break above this level with targets at 8065 (tight first target!), 8090, 8115, 8145 and 8175. Without news of a debt deal we will look to sell any rally with good CP confirmation.
July 22 @ 6:03 UTC - It is Friday (with the increased volatility and low volume that Friday’s bring) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas. Have a great weekend.
July 21 @ 5:59 UTC - we established another long around 8200 (which is about 15 pips in the profit at the moment) from yesterday’s trading plan. We are targeting 8220 (already hit), 8245, 8270 and 8295.
July 20 @ 4:05 UTC - Ask and you shall receive. We got a Three Inside Up pattern right at 8180 at 17:00 yesterday and the pair jumped up almost 90 pips in under 2 hours. The pair appears to be picking up speed to the upside so we will once again look to go long on a dip and signal around the 8200 region, or on a sustained break above 8255 with targets at 8275, 8300, 8325 and 8350 for 95 pips potential.
July 19 @ 4:43 UTC - We got a nice Three Inside Down pattern at 19:00 just a few pips below our resistance level at 8180 which hit our tight first target (so we captured pips) and the remaining lots hit the tightened SL at break even. Today we are looking to get long near current price level (8180) with good CP confirmation with targets at 8200, 8225, 8255 and 8285 for 105 pips potential.
July 18 @ 4:40 UTC - We are looking to get short around 8180 with a good CP bearish candlestick with targets at 8160, 8130, 8100 and 8070 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to get short on a sustained break below 8080 with targets at 8060, 8030, 8000 and 7970 for 110 pips potential.
July 15 @ 7:17 UTC - It is Friday, markets our choppy and US inflation data is out at 13:00 (making markets even more volatile) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas. Have a good weekend.
July 14 @ 6:08 UTC - Yesterday’s short from 8310 turned out well as the pair dropped over 200 pips to 0891 putting a nice amount of pips into our coffers ( we are leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking at). We are currently flat. The pair has broken an aggressive falling trend resistance line, a bullish signal, but our preferred positioning is to the downside right now so we will look to sell on steep rallies with CP confirmation or look to get short on a sustained break below 8105 with targets at 8090, 8070, 8045 and 8015 for 90 pips potential.
July 13 @ 6:59 UTC - We are short at 8310 as our rising trend support shown above was just broken a few minutes ago. The first target at 8290 has already been hit and we took profit on one lot and tightened the SL on the remaining lot to 8330 to eliminate risk (+20 on the first lot and risking 20 on the second lot). We are targeting 8290, 8265, 8240 and 8210.
July 11 @ 8:43 UTC - a nice flag pattern has appeared on the 1h charts after the long flag down last Friday and we are looking to get short on a sustained break below 80.65 with targets at 80.45, 80.20, 80.00 and 79.70 for 95 pips potential.
July 7 @ 9:27 UTC - Plenty of confirmation for our long near 8390 yesterday and we are now +35 pips on this pair and still targeting 84.95 for 105 pips before we close out for the event risk this afternoon. We are leaving the earlier chart up as it is still playing out perfectly.
July 6 @ 7:58 UTC - Our short played out perfectly yesterday for +70 pips (it got up to 90 pips in the profit) as price fell through our targets and then kicked up a bullish 4h doji at 84.05 (20:00 UTC) to close out our trade as per yesterday’s plan. We did not enter long as we require more confirmation than a single doji and never got it. Today we are looking for opportunities to get long above 83.90 with targets at 84.10, 84.35, 84.65 and 84.95 for 105 pips potential. We will also watch for a short below 83.80 with targets at 83.60, 83.35, 83.05 and 82.85. We are leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
July 5 @ 7:54 UTC - After several bearish 4h candlesticks the past few candles in CandlePRO – all under falling trend resistance (top black line on chart above) we have established a short around 8475 with targets at 8450, 8425, 8400 and 8370 for 105 pips potential. We will look to close and get long (and this is the secondary trade setup too) on bullish candlesticks near 8380 with targets back up to 8480.
July 1 @ 6:56 UTC - all of our targets were hit on our long from 8330 for 100 pips per lot. We will remain flat going into the weekend but in general we are bullish on this pair and would look to get long on dips, through there is a solid rising trend support line that would make a nice sell signal on sustained break below 8410 with targets down to 8330 for 80 pips profit.
June 30 @ 9:26 UTC - it has been a back and forth day with the USD/CHF – not quite the “set it and forget” low maintenance trades we normally look for. We originally took our primary long from yesterday with the sustained break above 8350 on the 1h charts (it is worth noting there was no sustained break above 8350 on 4h charts). However a very bearish doji occurred in CP on the 12:00 4h candle so we closed out our long and were able to avoid that 50 pip correction – which would not have hit our SL but still always a lot less stressful to avoid a trade that is in the red altogether. We then got long again at 8330 after the 1h hammer occurred in CP. That trade is about 14 pips in the profit currently and we are targeting 8350, 8375, 8400 and 8430. We will look to close and get short on a sustained break below 8300, which is rising trend support on 1h charts, with targets down to 8200. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
June 29 @ 7:59 UTC - Today’s trade setups should be pretty obvious when you look at the S/R on the 4h chart above :). Basically we have strong falling trend resistance currently around 83.50 which means that we will look to get long on a sustained break above this level with targets at 83.70, 83.95, 84.20 and 84.45 for 95 pips potential. We are also looking to continue to take small shorts on rallies anywhere near that falling trend resistance.
June 28 @ 7:52 UTC - The pair has been in an obvious downtrend for months and we are looking to get short on a rise to 8440-8470 resistance with targets down to 8420, 8390, 8360 and 8330
June 24 @ 5:51 UTC - We are bullish on this pair and looking for a bounce up to the 85-8550 stratosphere. We are currently flat for the weekend, but we have our eyes open for a good daily signal for 4h signal – and will have our eyes glued to the 8330 level come Sunday evening / Monday morning trading. For traders looking to enter today 8330 is where we would be looking to get long for a re-challenge of 8430 and higher.
June 23 @ 6:56 UTC - We are seeing the bounce we expected right now but we remained flat because there was no good confirmation in CP. We are currently looking for an aggressive short from around 8450 resistance with targets at 8425, 8400, 8370 and 8340. There is also an opportunity for a more conservative short on a rise to 8550 with targets all the way back down to the neckline of this potential double-top at 8330.
June 22 @ 6:58 UTC - USDCHF continued to (barely) fall yesterday as the pair consolidated above 8400. As the pair has barely moved leaves our trade setup exactly the same: “From current price action (~8430) we are more bullish than bearish as the rising trend support at 8360 is supporting the price at this point. On a solid CP bullish 4h signal around 8400 we will look to close our short and get long, targeting 8550 over the coming days. If we see a rise first than 8550 will also provide an excellent resistance zone to look for bearish confirmation signals.”
June 21 @ 6:14 UTC - we took the initial break below 8350 and are currently short on this pair. The trade is about 15 pips in the profit and because of the lack of enthusiastic follow-through by bears we have tightened our stop to risk next to nothing on the trade (but it will remain open). From current price action (~8430) we are more bullish than bearish as the rising trend support at 8360 is supporting the price at this point. On a solid CP bullish 4h signal around 8400 we will look to close our short and get long, targeting 8550 over the coming days. If we see a rise first than 8550 will also provide an excellent resistance zone to look for bearish confirmation signals.
June 20 @ 7:34 UTC - A bullish trend support has developed with the overall daily consolidation pattern, and we will look to take advantage of this technical development by buying on CP bull signals around 8470 with targets up to 8600 by mid-week. Otherwise a break below 8450 opens up 8350 immediately.
June 17 @ 6:03 UTC - Our final lot got stopped out for break even at 84.80 but we will take our pips from the previous lots and be happy with them. We will not open any more positions before the weekend but if we were trading then 8550 would be our key pivot – we are bearish below for a re-challenge of 84.00 and bullish above for a chance at 86.40.
June 16 @ 8:11 UTC - our long on a sustained break above 84.80 was activated and nearly hit the third target at 8555. We closed out most lots at the second target for 45 pips but still have one lot open with SL at break even and an open target. If it can survive this consolidation period then we still see 8615 as a good upside target. Leaving yesterday’s chart open to show what we are looking for.
June 15 @ 4:54 UTC - pair did indeed fall and then bounce back up but never got low enough for us to seriously consider entering on any of the CP signals (got to follow the trade plan, after all :). As a reminder we were looking for a dip to 83.15 to get long on as our primary. Today we are looking for a long on a sustained break above 8480 (with targets at 8500, 8525, 8555 and 8585) or short near current levels (8470) with good 4h CP confirmation and targets down to 8360.
June 13 @ 10:07 UTC - After our successful trades last week we are looking for the pair to encounter some bearish momentum here down to 83.15 support, where we expect to see a bit of a bounce and will look for good CP signals to get long with targets back up to 84.30. However with the bearish break below rising trend support (bottom black trend support) there is an opportunity for an aggressive short at current levels with targets down to 83.15.
June 10 @ 7:33 UTC - Our third target at 8430 was pierced as bulls shot price through – and then fell back down to be stopped for +80 pips per lot. We are flat but are bullish on the pair and would look for opportunities to get long on good CP signals if we were trading today.
June 8 @ 9:23 UTC - Our long from yesterday got to 35 pips in the profit and is still open about +13 right now. We have tightened our stop, however, to 8320 as the bullish follow through has been less than we were hoping for. We will look to stop and reverse at 8320 to target 8300 and 8250 before the weekend. Otherwise our long is still open with targets at: 8375, 8400, 8430 and 8460.
June 7 @ 9:19 UTC - we are still long from 8350 with targets at 8375, 8400, 8430 and 8460 for 110 pips though our trade is slightly underwater at the moment. We are in light (1 lot) though we will look to add to our long position on a sustained break above 8385. For bears (with trend!) there is an opportunity to get short between 8350-8370 targeting another run down to 8300.
June 6 @ 9:31 UTC - USDCHF has fallen to record lows and, while we milked plenty of pips out of the drop last week we are now looking to get long on this oversold pair as the past several 4h candlesticks have been coming up bullish a well. We established a single lot long at 8350 with targets at 8375, 8400, 8430 and 8460 for 110 pips. We are only using a single lot for now as it is counter-trend, but we will look to add to our position on a sustained break back above 8385.
June 3 @ 8:02 UTC - pair traded sideways yesterday so no good opportunities to enter. Our bias is the same as yesterday: “we will look for opportunities/candlesticks to get short on – especially on rallies to resistance. The primary resistance we are watching is around 84.50-84.70 with targets down to 8380 for a re-challenge.” however we will remain flat before the weekend and look to pick up where we left off next week.
June 2 @ 6:20 UTC - More bearish movement (as expected) as the pair broke below the 84.50 support level we were watching and dropped to touch as low as 8382 on the daily chart. With every major support we can find now broken the pair is either in a prime technical downtrend or drastically oversold. We tend to ignore oversold/overbought analysis and focus on the trend and in this case the trend is definitely down, so we will look for opportunities/candlesticks to get short on – especially on rallies to resistance. The primary resistance we are watching is around 84.50-84.70 with targets down to 8380 for a re-challenge.
June 1 @ 9:18 UTC - no good movement yesterday means that we stayed flat. In fact the chart looks nearly identical. We will stick with yesterday’s analysis for our primary trade: “We are still very bearish on this pair and will look to re-establish shorts on rallies and good CP bearish signals anywhere under falling trend resistance (87.00) with targets down to 84.50. We will also look to get short on a sustained break below 84.50 with targets down to 83.50.” However we will add one aggressive key pivot – 8550. 8550 has held price action for several days now and we see a break above this level as a bullish sign that 8670 is about to come under fire, and this is also a place where aggressive traders could look for scalping opportunities.
May 31 @ 10:34 UTC - Our shorts have been performing very well recently as we have watched the pair fall nearly 420 pips in just 4 days. We are still very bearish on this pair and will look to re-establish shorts on rallies and good CP bearish signals anywhere under falling trend resistance (87.00) with targets down to 84.50. We will also look to get short on a sustained break below 84.50 with targets down to 83.50.
May 26 @ 8:40 UTC - Nice. Our shorts performed very well after 87.50 was broken and we added to our short position, then it only took a few hours for 87.00 to be hit (trade from yesterday’s analysis). We will look to re-establish some shorts on a rise to the 87.60-87.90 resistance zone targeting down in 25 pip blocks all the way to 86.70 (where there is a long opportunity).
May 25 @ 9:32 UTC - We lost out on our long from 88, but stopped and reversed at 87.70 as the pair continues to break below the rising trend support line. Trade is currently about +15 and we are looking for a break below 87.50 to add to our position with 87.00 as the eventual downside target. We are bearish and looking for opps to sell after the downside break..
May 24 @ 9:27 UTC - updated chart with setups above. We will look to get short-term positions with the triangular consolidation wedge with longs near 88.00 and shorts near 88.70.
May 20 @ 6:50 UTC - ask and you shall receive! Well, almost . We mentioned we “will look to get short again on a rise to 8870-8900 resistance zone”. Well, we had the spike up (followed by the selloff and the drop down) – the only thing we were missing (for us, we know some of you entered short) was confirmation of the trade. We remained flat as the pair has dropped about 80 pips from 8875. There is key short-term support at 8800 right now and that would be our key pivot for today – we are bullish above and bearish below on CP signals. As with the other pairs we are sitting out of this thin Friday trading.
May 19 @ 9:01 UTC - our remaining short from May 17 got up 85 pips in the profit and we closed it for another additional 51 pips on the trade. We closed out because the pair appears to be turning up a bit with the recent resurgence of dollar strength. We are flat for now but will look to get short again on a rise to 8870-8900 resistance zone with targets at 8850, 8825, 8800 and 8775. We will also look to get long on another failure around 8790 and a bullish CP signal with targets up to 8900. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show the trade we took.
May 18 @ 8:48 UTC - Our favorite bearish candle appeared on the 1h charts – the Three Inside Down pattern near our aggressive ‘deformed right shoulder” at 11:00 yesterday. We got in a nice short which is currently about 50 pips in the profit on remaining lots. We did get a downside break of the neckline (8800) too so our primary targets from yesterday’s analysis are still in effect: “8775, 8750, 8725 and 8700 for 100 pips profit”. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
May 17 @ 9:46 UTC - thanks @fxtom for pointing out the deformed head and shoulders on the 1h charts. Our chart above actually shows it on the 4h charts and you can see where there is a potentially weak right shoulder. We view weak right shoulders as a bearish positive in dealing with H&S formations but it should be pointed out that a h&s is not complete until a sustained break of the neckline occurs – in this case the neckline is around 8800. So our conservative trade is a short on a sustained break around 8800 with targets at 8775, 8750, 8725 and 8700 for 100 pips profit. We are also looking for an aggressive short around current price action levels (below 8900. Current price is 8860) in anticipation of a H&S, with a target at least back down to the neckline at 8800.
May 16 @ 8:50 UTC - our short last Friday got about 60 pips in the profit before returning and hitting our tightened SL for 35 pips profit. The pair then continued upward in the sweep of USD bullishness last week carving out a new higher high to confirm the short-term bullish trend. The only worriesome thing about the current rally is that on the daily chart we are currently a) butting up against the 50% fib retracement from the April 1st high to the May 4th low (and the 50% fib retracement has held before on this pair) and b) it appears to be a bit of bearish consolidation on the daily chart. For this reason if the pair drops below 8800 we will look to get short with the expectation of more losses toward 8700. Otherwise we will look to get long above 8850 on bullish CP signals for a re-challenge of .900.
May 13 @ 7:34 UTC - our sole remaining short of the week is currently 35 pips in the profit and we will keep it open for just a bit longer as we are still bearish on this pair. We entered on the May 12 0:00 shooting star and still have a few candles left until we’ve reached 10 candles (we try to wait at least 10 candles for every trade we enter – the 10-candles strategy is what all CP results are based off!). We’d like to get 8780 before we close this short down for the weekend.
May 12 @ 8:25 UTC - we took our short at 8860 with a 4h shooting star with good stats in CP. We have a very tight stop just above 8900 are are targeting 8840, 8810, 8780 and 8750 for 110 pips potential.
May 11 @ 18:03 UTC - gains have accelerated in UChf recently and 8900 is now in the crosshairs. While we are bullish on this pair we are looking for 8900 to provide some short-term resistance as the pair appears to have over-extended itself a bit in the past 24 hours to reach this high. We will look for an aggressive short around current levels for a re-challenge of 8800 where we will look to get long again.
May 10 @ 9:45 UTC - We are moving our pivot up to 8800, with a daily close above that level closing any short we have open. We will look for bearish CP signals around 8800 with targets at 8775, 8750, 8520 and 8490.
May 9 @ 8:01 UTC - after the major bullish break last week on the daily charts we are now looking for a long in this pair, preferably on a dip to at least 8670 with confirmation. Targets at 8695, 8720, 8750 and 8780.
May 6 @ 8:40 UTC - *We are not trading today due to Friday volatility and NFP event risk* CP saved us from entering short near 86.20 yesterday as it gave nothing but bullish signals until it was well above our resistance zone and the falling trend resistance we had been watching was smashed. Conservative trade today is to stand aside, but if we were looking to trade then there would be two support zones we watched: aggressive at 8675 and more of a pullback at 8600. Next major resistance is 8770.
May 5 @ 7:16 UTC - Pair never rose enough for us to get a new short order in so we are still flat. Our new resistance zone where we will look for an aggressive short is 86.20 with targets at 86.00 (tight first target), 85.75, 85.50, 85.20 for ~100 pips.
May 4 @ 8:13 UTC - our resistance zone paid off for 47 pips again from yesterday’s trade. We had a near picture-perfect entry as the pair just pierced our 8770 resistance and then closed back below (false breakout). It was a small pierce but, as we mentioned yesterday, this pair has been so predictable recently that we felt confident in an aggressive trade. There was also plenty of confirmation on the 1h and 30m CP signals if you waited. Today we will look for more of the same (short on rallies) but move our resistance zone down to 86.50-86.70 with targets (from 86.70) at 86.50, 86.25, 86.00 and 85.75.
May 3 @ 7:59 UTC - this pair has been predictable and profitable for almost all of April so we see no reason to change up our strategy now. There is a strong falling trend resistance in place where we will look to sell. Currently that resistance zone is between 8670-8700. We will look to get short there with targets at (from 8700) 8640, 8610, 8580 and 8550. Keeping our stop relatively tight above 8700 to avoid a correction loss.
April 29 @ 7:10 UTC - UChf never quite made it our resistance zone yesterday and, like the other pairs, has been consolidating in a very tight range for the past 12 hours. For UChf, that range is between 8725-8750. IF we were trading today (we don’t generally trade Fridays due to volatility and thin markets) we would look for a nearly identical trade to yesterday: “We will look to get in again today with a rise to 8760-8780 resistance with a CP bearish signal. Targets at 8740, 8715, 8690 and 8665 for ~80-100 pips potential depending on where you enter.”
April 28 @ 7:31 UTC - This pair cooperated beautifully yesterday as it rose up to our resistance and then fell like a rock. Why did we sit out the FOMC meeting again ;)? We will look to get in again today with a rise to 8760-8780 resistance with a CP bearish signal. Targets at 8740, 8715, 8690 and 8665 for ~80-100 pips potential depending on where you enter.
April 27 @ 8:52 UTC - We are still bearish on this pair but it is starting to get into oversold territory. Given the FOMC volatility we will remain flat and look to pick back up on our bearish trades (hopefully we’ll get at least a minor correction today) on Thursday. For those looking to trade despite the FOMC then we would be looking for bearish trades on rises *CP confirmation*
April 26 @ 8:19 UTC - good thing we were waiting for confirmation in the 8800-8820 support pocket because the pair just kept sinking and sinking. We should have listened more closely to CP, though, as almost all the 1h signals yesterday were bearish. We are bearish on this pair now, but will wait for a rise to 88.50 at least before we start looking for bearish CP signals to enter on.
April 25 @ 8:37 UTC - There is still an opportunity for an aggressive short at 8900 if you are still feeling bearish on the pair, but after re-evaluating price action this morning we’ve decided that the current consolidation pattern, on top of the bullish 4h candle (long bullish wick) from last week, has tipped the scales a bit back in the direction of bulls for the short-term. While the trend is by no means bullish at the moment (the opposite in fact) we feel 8800-8820 will offer an opportunity to get long on a good CP signal, with targets at 8825, 8850, 8875 and 8900 for 100 pips.
April 21 @ 7:41 UTC - we were looking for 89.00 by the end of the week and instead got it just a few hours after opening the trade. Altogether we were able to squeeze 140 pips out of this pair and we will look to get short again on a rise to 89.00 with bearish confirmation. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
April 20th @ 6:23 UTC - closed our long from yesterday for about +35 pips on indications that 90 was not going to be broken as indicated in yesterday’s signal. The pair now shows indications of turning to the downside and we just took the 4h Three Inside Down pattern with a decent profit factor. We have a tight first target and are looking for another challenge of 89.00 by the end of the week.
April 19th @ 9:55 UTC - we just recently took an inverted hammer long (opened at 0:00, signal time was 04:00 on 4h charts). It is about 25 pips in the profit now and we look to close if .90 can’t be broken
April 18 @ 8:18 UTC - The pair continues to move in our forecasted direction – down! – but without any good corrections to get in on (though all 10-EMA touches on the 4h chart since April 6th have resulted in pips). For the first time since April 6th though we have seen some closes above this 10-EMA and will look for some good bullish CP signals to go long on at current levels (price is 8940 currently) with short term targets around 9050 with a stop-and-reverse on a close below 8900.
April 12 @ 9:26 UTC - Pair continues to be bearish though no trade was taken yesterday as the rally never got high enough for us to seriously consider entering short again. Yesterday’s trade still holds true with the conservative short position being on a rally 9130-9150.
April 11 @ 4:58 UTC - After our great short last week we are looking to reload a short for this week. 0.9250 was our resistance last week and, while still strong resistance, there 0.9135-9150 is also decent resistance now and we will look to reload an aggressive short here with candlestick confirmation. Targets at 9125, 9100, 9070 and 9040 for 110 pips.
April 8 @ 8:00 UTC - all targets were hit on our short for +100 pips and we are now flat. We will leave up our chart from earlier this week for two reasons: 1) so you can see what we were looking for and 2) because the basic trade is still valid. We are still ultimately bearish on the pair under 9250 and will look for more opportunities to get short next week.
April 6 @ 8:44 UTC - Our trade from yesterday is +70 at the moment and downward momentum appears to be picking up some steam so we are keeping it alive. Stop is tightened to break-even so we are risking nothing on the trade with 9130 our target. 9250 is still our key pivot here – bearish below, bullish above and should provide more opportunities today for traders. We are leaving up yesterday’s chart to show what we were looking for.
April 5 @ 7:28 UTC - currently short on a strong daily signal, plus in addition to our UJ short will help hedge our AU and GU shorts. The daily signal was actually somewhat of a double by itself today as it was a bearish engulfing and hanging man all wrapped up into one. Targeting 92.20, 91.90, 91.60 and 91.30 for 110 pips profit.
April 4 @ 8:55 UTC - our primary trade from last week still holds – short around 9350 with good CP confirmation. We almost rallied up there at the end of last week but a) it was Friday so we stayed on the sideline and b) it never quite made it, instead finding sellers at 9330.
April 1 @ 6:37 UTC - the bounce from 9125 earlier this week continues to pay for those hutters who took the trade on March 29th. We are currently flat before the weekend, NFP reports, but will look to short on a rally to 9350 starting next week.
Mar 31 @ 7:56 UTC - we did indeed see a 140 pip rise from our call on March 29th! Unfortunately we did not take it as their was no 1h or 4h CP confirmation. Congrats to those ‘hutters who did take the aggressive trade without confirmation, but we took the conservative road as usual. We are now back where we started – threatening 9140 support. We now view this level as our key pivot and will look to get short below it and long above it with confirmation.
Mar 29 @ 6:44 UTC - Pair has dipped and is currently in our support zone we mentioned yesterday (9120-9150). We are currently flat but looking for good CP signals to get long on in this zone. Targets from 9120 at 9145, 9175, 9200 and 9230 for 110 pips.
Mar 28 @ 8:03 UTC - Our modified target of 9175 was hit Friday for good profit :). The pair has currently furthered its bullish turn from bearish lows and we will look for any dips as opportunities to get long again on 1h and 4h signals. 9150-9120 is our preferred support zone to get long from.
Mar 25 @ 8:54 UTC - our only trade still open entering Friday and we have tightened the SL to 9105 to lock in profit and moved our Friday target down to 9175.
Mar 24 @ 7:37 UTC - Our long from Tuesday is nicely in the profit right now and still open. We got two 4h bullish candlesticks in a row – 08:00 bullish doji followed by 12:00 Three Inside Up. Neither had a knock-your-socks-off profit factor but with USDCHF the support/resistance is usually the most important component of the trade and the candlestick is confirmation. Currently targeting 92.50/93 but there is strong resistance expected in the 9200 region that we will tighten our stop to BE (not cover or close) on a failure.
Mar 22 @ 8:56 UTC - We are looking to get long at these levels on a strong CP signal. While further weakness is possible 89-90 has shown great support that we ultimately expect to hold on another re-challenge – at least this week. SNB recently made comments that the CHF could gain more on any further EUR weakness and we agree, so we will be watching new closely. Finally we expect the market to short any rally to the 92.50 region and we will look to get in at this level too as our alternate trade.
Mar 17 @ 6:01 UTC - flat for the same reasons as UJ, though we expect the price to rebound from the current levels for a re-challenge of 9150 because of the drastically oversold nature of the pair. It got pulled down with UJ, but no central bank bailed it out. We’ll look for a strong CP bullish signal between 8900 and 9000 to go long on.
Mar 16 @ 7:55 UTC - no entry yet as price continues to drop with no rally. The pair is encountering support right now around 91.50, and this pair does stand to gain from a bit of a correction. For this reason we will look for bullish CP signals to trade around 9150-9200 with targets up to 9300, where we will look to short again.
Mar 14 @ 19:42 UTC - we should have trusted CP again – our short would have been 70 pips in the profit right now. Instead we are waiting to re-enter short around 93.0-93.30 on a good CP signal.
Mar 10 @ 8:16 UTC - there was a strong bearish sell 1h signal near 93.50 but, as with UJ, we don’t want all our trades in the same direction so we passed this one, but still a solid looking trade and already in the profit.
Mar 9 @ 8:44 UTC - our bias is to the downside given the downward trend on the daily charts and we will look for a CP sell signal in the 93.50 or 94.20 resistance areas.
Mar 4 @ 8:22 UTC - we did open a short around 93.15 after some bearish 4h signals in CP yesterday but closed it as Friday rolled around and no progress was made with the pair. The 4h candles all look very bearish with nice profit factors so we will look for a bearish entry first thing next week. Leaving up our chart from earlier this week to show what we were looking for.
Mar 2 @ 8:27 UTC - yesterday’s primary trade is still valid and open: “We will look in the area of 93.40-93.70 for a solid CP candlestick to get short on with targets down to 92.00 for 170 pips of profit.” Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we are looking for.
Mar 1, 2011 @ 5:02 UTC - Pair busted through the bottom of its support trend line last week at 93.70, and now that resistance zone is providing our entry point for a short setup in the coming days. We will look in the area of 93.40-93.70 for a solid CP candlestick to get short on with targets down to 92.00 for 170 pips of profit.
Feb 25 @ 8:56 UTC - We did take a long from 0.9370 on a 4h candle signal which got stopped out for a small loss below the rising trend support line. We hesitated when taking the short too because Backtester found the bullish doji we took to be a pretty non-profitable signal. What did we learn? That backtester works! With support busted we are bearish but will remain flat before the weekend. Leaving Feb 22 chart up to show what we were looking for.
Feb 22 @ 8:00 UTC - no change from Feb 21st analysis.
Feb 21 @ 9:28 UTC - Still a bit of room to drop until it means long-term daily rising support at 0.9350. Connect the lows from Dec 31st and Feb 2 to draw the support. So far the pair has bounced wildly off this level that past two times it has touched, rising 300-500 pips each time! We will look to re-establish a long around these levels.
Feb 17 @ 9:07 UTC - No change here. Pairs have been just drifting this week and there is no good reason to get into a pair when the trend is weak or non existent.
Feb 16 @ 8:33 UTC - still flat on mixed technicals. No good trade setups.
Feb 15 @ 9:18 UTC - we are currently flat on this pair as the technicals are a bit mixed, but see chart above for a trading idea.
Feb 10 @ 7:12 UTC - Our last short booked good profit and the pair is right near its falling trend resistance on daily charts. We will remain bearish and look for opportunities to sell under 9350, or look to get long on a sustained break above this level. We expect this trade to get executed during today’s trading as the price is right near the falling resistance now.
Feb 9 @ 9:19 UTC - 4h CP candles have been very profitable for this pair recently. We saw the break above 9600 that caused us to go long – which by the way was preceded by an inverted hammer at 04:00 and then a hammer at 08:00 on 4h (both of which would have netted you 100+ pips), but quickly closed out after some strong 4h CP bearish signals (doji 20:00, almost shooting star, hanging man 04:00) for the past few candles after the rise. We did take a single lot short on those signals, but the stop remains tight. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
Feb 8 @ 7:25 UTC - UChf has been flirting strongly with daily falling trend resistance (the black line cutting through the middle of price action in the chart above). The past three times price has intersected this resistance line it has fallen by a few hundred pips each time – just take a look at the Jan 11, Jan 13 and Jan 20-21 levels. Therefor we are a bit more bearish than bullish but to be sure we will wait for confirmation in the way of a sustained break above 0.9600 or below 0.9515 (the pair’s tight range from the past few days). Above 0.9600 opens up a re-challenge of 0.9700 and below 0.9515 opens up a drop to 0.9400 and 0.9340.
Feb 2 @ 8:53 UTC - We’re glad you were able to get in on the sustained break below 9400 – we missed it. We’ll leave the chart from the 28th/27th up though so you can see what we were looking for. Basically the pair has been consolidating, breaking out, consolidating, breaking out, etc for weeks now and the signal was designed to take advantage of that. 9300 is major support coming up and any stalling there might be cause for a short-term long (especially with good CP confirmation).
Jan 28th @ 5:25 UTC - pair broke 9400 for just a split-second and for only about 10 pips (false breakout) before reversing back up to the top of the resistance channel (where if you sold you are about +30). Flat heading into the weekend.
Jan 27th @ 7:18a UTC - long view (daily) it has been very profitable to sell on rallies to resistance (~9600) but on the hourly chart breakout trades have been working out wellfor example on 1h we had pooled support around 9570 on the 21st, when it broke it was good for 100 pips, then on the 25th it was 9470 when it broke it was good for 70pips. Now support is 9400, when it breaks… ?
There also appears to be plenty of sellers around 9450 resistance. How much lower can it go? 9300 is strong daily support and a re-challenge of there is the most likely low point for the time being though we are a little weary of that bullish doji on the daily charts (good RR in CP); a break below 9400 would invalidate it and confirm the downtrend resumption. Thanks @kiwi for the good swissy questions :).
Jan 25th @ 6:58a UTC - Looks like last week’s trend resistance lines and chart price action predictions (shown on last week’s chart above) were spot on. We stayed flat however, as the setups were never quite appealing enough. We are glad some of you got in on this though :).
Jan 24th @ 7:27a UTC - Price action for the USD/CHF has been erratic and unpredictable (for the most part), and this pair is suffering from the same problem as the UJ: other than a big jump early in the month the pair isn’t moving enough for longer term trades like we go after here to really play out and make some good pips. Scalpers have been having a field day with the lines drawn above (leaving last week’s chart up so you can continue to play with those S/R lines), but long-term traders and big money will wait until a solid correction/breakout takes place to take a position. Leaving last week’s chart up to show what we are anticipating.
Jan 20 @ 8:59a UTC - we stayed away from this pair, but anyone who took the 9550 short (shown on the chart from Jan 19, above) is slightly in the profit (up to +30).
Jan 19 @ 9:07a UTC - We are staying away from this pair, both short- and long- term positions until it established a little bit more consistency in its price action. The prevailing trends appear to be down but even those resistance lines are a bit uneven and difficult to predict where price will turn again. Flat for now.
NOTE: Due to the server restore we had to do the posts between Jan 9th-Jan 19th are lost forever :( – unless a diligent PipHutter copied them down somewhere!
Jan 7 @ 7:31a UTC - The analysis that we thought we be the toughest call turned out to be the most straight forward – the sustained break above 0.9500 came very quickly and never looked back, rising as high as 0.9706 yesterday (+200 pips) and is currently consolidating around 0.9652. Given the news volatility today we will wait until Monday for higher-probability setups and calmer markets where technical analysis generally works better.
Jan 5 9:23a UTC - This is a tough one and we will most likely remain flat. Tough because the pair is very oversold but the longer-term trend is down and we just had a bearish break of strong 9500 support. However, given our anticipation of USD strength in coming days and the oversold daily charts the only trade setup we will be watching is for a long on a sustained rise above 9500 with targets back up the daily falling trend resistance (around 9750).
Jan 3 2011 - Happy New Year! Bank Holidays in numerous countries today (UK, Australia, Japan, some French banks, etc) so no PRO analysis – markets are too thin for any good analysis/trading in our opinion. CandlePRO will continue to turn out signals, as always, and you can view all bank holidays here. We look forward to an exciting and pip-filled new year with you!
Dec 20-24th - No PRO analysis this week due to holidays and illiquid markets, but CandlePRO will continue to function as normal! When markets have this low of volume (due to traders being gone for the rest of the year) then markets tend to behave in strange ways and are difficult to predict in the short-term. If you do choose to trade we recommend you trade even more conservatively than normal! In general we are bullish on the USD as risk-aversion continues to be the dominant theme. Keep an eye on your emails for the new PRO Scoreboard feature and we’ll see you in 2011! – PipHut
Dec 17th @ 9:00a UTC - Pair has dropped 80 pips from yesterday’s analysis though we remain flat before the weekend. Will re-evaluate this pair for trading setups next week.
Dec 16th @ 7:07a UTC - We took a 65 pip loss on this pair as we attempted to long again above 9750 only to have the bottom of the channel broken and our stop taken out below 9700. We are flat on this pair now but technically the picture is bearish after the break of key support. 9750 is now the key resistance zone.
Dec 13th @ 8:44a UTC - 0.9800 is short-term support within this pairs longer-term bullish channel (blue lines on chart above). There is an opportunity to re-enter long above 0.9800 but a break below this level re-opens up a challenge of rising trend support and a break below that bottom support would be a very bearish technical event. Medium-term though we are still closer to the bottom of the channel than the top so I am bullish on this pair as long as the bullish channel holds.
Dec 9 @ 8:49a UTC - Still flat. Showing Monday’s chart above so you can see the setups we were watching for.
Dec 6 @ 10:15a UTC - Well the big drop to the bottom of the channel finally happened last week and I stayed flat through the entire drop. It was the right choice – trading against the trend is never advisable – but it is impossible as a trader not to second-guess your calls. Specifically, in hindsight that top resistance was tested a half dozen times over the past few weeks which gave a good indication it would hold. On top of that we had several bearish daily candles throughout that entire process which shows that the rally is weak. But, like I always say, I’d rather miss out than miss my equity.
The good news is that we are back at the bottom of the channel already and I’m looking for buying opportunities over the coming days around 0.9720, and as long as we stay above 0.97 I will remain bullish on this pair.
Dec 1 @ 9:10a UTC - currently flat. We are still stuck in the bullish consolidation pattern with an upside break of the dollar looking a bit more likely. There is still no compelling trade setup here and we remain on the sideline.
Nov 29 @ 8:28a UTC: The USD/CHF has been going nowhere fast all for awhile now and I don’t see a good trading setup at the moment. The fact that the top resistance in its bullish channel remains could mean the USD will see some weakness soon but, because I am looking for USD strength is most of my trades at the moment I will ignore this setup. If you believe the USD is due for some weakness then this might be a good setup for you to jump on for a re-challenge of at least the 9900 support.
November 26 2010 @ 7:06a UTC: Price still continues to consolidate near the top of its bullish consolidation pattern and we continue to be flat. The pair has so far resisted its strong correlation with the EUR/USD and we don’t believe there are any high probability setups to be found yet. We will look to short this pair when risk-aversion wears off in the coming weeks and the USD/CHF continues its downtrend, but until then there are better trade opportunities to be had.
7:47a UTC, November 18th 2010: Price has not moved much from last week as the pair consolidated in a very tight range between 0.9850 and 1.00. Because 1.00 is a large round number, former strong daily support, psychological resistance, the 23.6% retracement of the June high to October low and also the rising resistance of our consolidation channel we are looking for a bounce off this level to re-challenge the bottom blue line of channel support around 0.9750. Our stops are tight above 1.00 as a break above this level, for all the reasons listed above, is likely to produce a *pop* to send price upward.
Recap: Switzerland’s central bank a few months ago vowed it was done intervening in its currency which prompted a bear attack, though began to find support in mid-October. Since then we have entered a pennant consolidation pattern (see chart above), with the bias being bearish because of the obvious downtrend.
February 7th @ 7:48 UTC – We are looking to get long on a topside resistance break with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit.
February 3rd @ 7:59 UTC - Our short for GU was triggered and we have closed it out for -10 to enter the weekend flat. It is Friday and we don’t trade on Fridays due to the volatility that generally accompanies the low volume. We have put aggressive setups and S/R lines on the chart above, and all alerts/PRO features will continue to work as normal.
February 2nd @ 6:23 UTC - We remained flat yesterday as no credible S/R lines formed intraday. We are currently tracking parallel S/R lines above and below price and will look to take a short or long (short on break of support, long on break of resistance) with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will keep the SL a bit tighter on the short as the trend is definitely bullish.
February 1st @ 7:52 UTC – Our long was activated yesterday on the resistance break, getting to +35 before reversing and hitting our SL for -15. We missed the support break and are currently flat, waiting for a better S/R line to form to trade off of (no good setups are present). We will watch from the sidelines on this pair for now.
January 31st @ 5:56 UTC – No position taken yesterday and we are now tracking an ascending triangle on the 4h charts. The triangle is a bullish signal, so we will look to take a long on a break of the horizontal resistance at 5750 with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips. We will also look to take a short on a break of the rising support (right side of the triangle) with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. We will keep the short SL tight as the primary trend is bullish.
January 30th @ 12:21 UTC Intraday Update – Mixed bag technically with GU right now. We have a strong uptrend for the past week but it has begin to slow down the past couple days. Because the slow down occurred on low volume we will continue looking for reasons to get long but there are not any S/R lines that fit our system at the moment so we will sit this pair out until a better resistance forms that we can long a break on.
January 27th @ 8:33 UTC – The chart above has also been updated with our aggressive trading ideas. We normally don’t trade on Fridays due to the higher volatility caused by the lower volume of Fridays. CandlePRO and Swing signals will continue to function as normal for PRO members.
January 25th @ 6:14 UTC – Our short yesterday never went anywhere as bulls were just too strong, kicking us out of the trade for -50, knocking us back to break even for this pair on the week after Monday’s gain. We are currently flat and looking to get short off our tight rising support break (bottom blue) with targets at 15 (tight!), 20, 30, 30 for 95 pips profit. We will be watching for new falling resistance to get formed and broken for a chance to close our short and get long again.
January 24th @ 8:48 UTC - Our aggressive long got +50 pips yesterday as the GU rallies off of support on overall USD weakness. Our primary short was triggered at 1.5547 and we are currently in that trade with yesterday’s targets: 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit. We will look to add a falling resistance as the day goes on and then close and long our position.
January 23rd @ 5:30 UTC - Price has continued to bounce upward in an overall larger bearish consolidation pattern (short-term bullish), and we will look to get back in on a downward swing on a break below support at 5525 with targets at 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit. There is also space for aggressive longs on top of rising support target 20/30 targets for 50 pips at a time.
January 19th @ 11:15 UTC - Our aggressive longs off of rising support played out well, netting us +50 off of two small +25 positions. The primary short was not activated. we are tracking an aggressive rising support currently and will look to get short on a downside break of it with targets at 20/20/25/30 for 95 pips profit. We expect support to be found at the yellow rising support shown above and will look to redraw our primary support there and re-evaluate our short at that time.
January 18th @ 7:22 UTC - As promised we sat out yesterday on this pair as no setup looked tempting enough for us to enter. We are tracking a better rising trend support today (bottom blue line currently at 5330 and rising) with targets at 20/25/25/35 pips for 105 pips profit. There are also opportunities for aggressive longs off of support proximity alerts as the pair has plenty of bullish upside left after the bullish resistance break from earlier this week.
January 17th @ 10:12 UTC - Our short got almost +30 in the profit before turning on us and hitting our SL for -15. We passed on the long on the resistance break, as we said we would – if you had taken it you would be about +50 at the moment. We are flat for the moment as the momentum appears to be shifting from bearish to bullish with no clear favorite at the moment. We will sit this pair out until a more clear cut (and higher probability) trend emerges.
January 16th @ 6:16 UTC – GU has opened slowly and we are tracking a longer term (for us anyway) falling resistance that spans a couple weeks, connecting the highs of early January with the highs of January 9th and January 12th. We will only look to get short under this falling resistance, not long on a break above, because our normal S/R break strategy does not work as well on longer term S/R’s like these. Targets on this resistance bounce trade will be 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips and we will enter on a proximity alert or a good candlepro signal beneath resistance.
January 13th @ 9:14 UTC - Two resistance breaks occurred yesterday as price broke resistance, fell below and then broke it again. We entered on the first one (5346) so our long only got to +50 before turning against us and hitting our tightened SL for +20. If you entered on the second break (5322) then all of your targets should have been just barely hit for 85 pips profit. Friday’s aggressive setups shown on chart above – as usual we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and greater risk of volatility!
January 12@ 10:01 UTC - All targets hit on our short yesterday (stop loss above 5500 withstood the rally) for 95+ pips. If you stayed in the trade at all you could have up to +180 at the moment as the pair had quite a large drop shortly after yesterday’s analysis. There was an aggressive resistance that was broken intraday yesterday but that break did not appear to be very solid and we are in fact now tracking another falling resistance. We will look to get long off a topside break of this one but we will keep our SL tight and look to tighten it frequently. Targets at 20/20/20/25 for 85 pips profit.
January 11th @ 9:26 UTC - Our primary short was triggered on the break below rising trend support at 1.5460 but only got to +15 before turning back to the upside. We are still in the trade, which is currently hovering around -20 with a stop just above 5500 where we will look to stop and get long on the 5500 resistance break. For our short we are targeting 20/20/25/30 for 95 pips profit.
January 10th @ 15:21 UC INTRADAY UPDATE – After sitting on the sidelines yesterday due to a lack of a good setup we had a solid rising support develop over the course of the past 16 hours or so. We will look to get short on a downside break of this rising support for our primary trade with targets at 20/25/25/30 for 100 pips profit.
January 9th @ 9:42 UTC – GU has shown upward momentum after market open, similar to AU and EU, however the rise has been a bit more tempered leading us to believe that the pair has a bearish tint today. Unfortunately none of the setups and S/R lines look solid enough for us to risk equity on at the moment – we will sit on the sidelines for this pair until a better setup and/or S/R line emerges.
January 6th @ 9:33 UTC - The chart above has also been updated with our aggressive trading ideas. We normally don’t trade on Fridays, and with the first NFP of 2012 due out today we consider any trading to be extremely aggresive and will sit today out. CandlePRO and Swing signals will continue to function as normal for PRO members.
January 5th @ 7:29 UTC - No trade triggered yesterday as price never broke our top resistance level for our primary long, and never got close enough to resistance for our secondary short. The chart is mixed today and we will not take any positions until some better setups appear (better to miss out than miss your equity). In general we are bearish below 1.5675 and bullish above.
January 4th @ 10:00 UTC - GU continued to rally tomorrow, never breaking our rising trend support level and never triggering our trade. We are no longer looking to trade the rising support on this pair because the pair has gotten too far away from it to give us confidence that a *pop* will occur if it were to break. Instead we are now tracking a horizontal resistance at 1.5680 that we will look to get long on a topside break of with targets at 20/20/25/30 for 95 pips profit. We will also look to get short on the underside of 1.5680 with targets at 20/20 for 40 pips profit per pop until the topside break occurs.
January 3rd 2012 @ 6:27 UTC – GU has been very bullish on the thin holiday volume and our primary trade is a short of bottom rising trend support, currently at 1.5530 and rising, with targets at 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit. Similar to AU, we will not get long off a support bounce but will instead look for a new falling resistance when the primary trade does happen and then get long on the break of future resistance (charts will be updated before that break occurs).
December 29th @ 6:44 UTC - Aggressive setups shown on chart above! We will not be trading today as there are only two days left in 2011 and markets are whisper thin, meaning even slight rumors could whip you out of a position right now. Aggressive setups are shown on the chart above for you brave souls looking to trade these dangerous waters.
Signals will resume again Tuesday, January 3rd and we will embark on yet another year together! Thanks for making PipHut the #1 forex community year after year – we would be lost without you all :). CandlePRO and PRO S/R Breaks and Bounces will continue to work as normal and S/R charts will be updated for PRO members.
See you in 2012!
December 28th @ 7:48 UTC - GU has not broken out of its S/R lines from yesterday due to the low volume, so our setups remain the same (though at slightly different levels): “we will look to trade a topside break to resistance (at 1.5650) with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips. That is the only setup we are currently watching on this pair due to the thin holiday volume.”
December 27th @ 7:19 UTC - GU has been one of the few pairs showing a little life and we will look to trade a topside break to resistance (at 1.5650) with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips. That is the only setup we are currently watching on this pair due to the thin holiday volume.
December 22nd @ 8:05 UTC - We will not be trading today due to the light holiday + end of year volume. Light volume tends to create volatile and unpredictable markets. Normal analysis will resume Tuesday, December 27th, though we will continue to update the S/R Charts and S/R alerts + CandlePRO alerts will continue to operate normally. Happy Holidays and see you on Tuesday! Aggressive setups shown on chart above.
December 21st @ 9:28 UTC - We took profit on our long yesterday for +95 pips profit. Today we are once again tracking a rising trend support and will look to get short on a break below with targets at 20/20/25/25 for 90 pips profit. In general we are more bullish on the pair than bearish at the moment and we will look to reset our long at the nearest opportunity and look to move our short SL early and often to lock in profit.
December 20th @ 9:05 UTC - GU flirted with its resistance all day yesterday, breaking it no less than 4 times over the course of the day between 5520-5510. No matter which you took you are in the profit now to the tune of 60-70 pips profit as current price is at 5580. We are keeping our long open for the 95 pips profit but have tightened our SL to +50 to lock in profit. We will also look to close and get short on a break below the aggressive rising support we have drawn on the chart above (currently at 5550 and rising fast) with targets at 20/20/25/30 for 95 pips.
December 19th @ 10:42 UTC - GU has a good medium-term falling trend resistance (blue line) that we will look to get long on a break above and, until that happens, catch pips off bounces below. Resistance is currently at 5525 and falling, and for longs we will target 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit. For shorts we will target 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit.
December 15th @ 9:41 UTC - GU has been consolidating in a pattern most similar to the AU at the moment and our preferred trade is to get short under the falling trend resistance currently at 5530 and falling with targets at 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit. We will also look to get long on a break above this resistance with targets at 20/20/20/20 pips for 80 pips profit.
December 14th @ 9:05 UTC – Our short on the break below rising support was triggered yesterday at 1.5550 (email was sent out to S/R subscribers) and quickly hit all of our targets for +90 pips. Today we are tracking an aggressive rising trend support and an aggressive falling resistance – we will look to trade in either direction on a clear break and target 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips profit.
December 13th @ 6:35 UTC – Our short got +85 in the profit before turning and hitting our tightened SL at +50 pips. We are currently flat as the pair bounced around within its S/R lines but we are primarily looking for shorts on this pair. Our primary trade will be a short on a bounce off of resistance at 1.5725 with targets at 20/25/25/25 for 95 pips. We will also look to get short on a break below the rising support (currently at 5550 and rising) with targets at 20/25/20/25 for 90 pips – we will look to tighten our SL often though as the pair is having difficulties sustaining drops.
December 12th @ 9:45 UTC - GU just broke to the downside of a bearish triangle consolidation pattern (email alert sent out at 5618) and is currently +70 into the profit. We are targeting 35 more pips on the trade and have moved our SL to +40 to lock in profit. We will update with more S/R lines throughout the day for more trade setups, though we are bearish in general on this pair given the downside break and the bearish triangle consolidation pattern.
December 8th @9:58 UTC - We are not trading today due to the new features rollout announced this morning and also because of the extreme market choppiness we expect from the EU Summit. Our chart has been updated above with aggressive setups and of course CandlePRO, breakout alerts and bounce alerts will continue to work just fine :).
December 7th @ 8:03 UTC - Our short on the support break got stopped out at -50 as we had a fairly tight stop and the pair swung upward on volatility. If you used an even slightly bigger SL then your trade got to +40 after the swing. Today we are looking to get short on a rise to falling resistance with candlestick confirmation (currently at 5685 and falling) with targets at 20/25/25/30 pips for 100 pips profit. We will also look to get long on a topside break of falling resistance with targets at 20/25/25/30 pips profit.
December 6th @ 7:00 UTC - Pair is consolidating in a triangle pattern (same as EU) and we will look to get long on a topside break of falling resistance (currently at 1.5700 and falling – we will wait for the email alert from the new S/R alert feature) targeting 20/25/25/30 pips for 100 pips profit. We will also look to get short on a downside break of blue rising trend support, currently at 1.5600 and rising, with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips profit. Scalpers can of course look to carve out a few pips as the pair consolidates within the triangle.
December 2nd @9:39 UTC - currently flat and there is a good falling trend resistance forming (see chart above) that we would look to get long on a topside break if we were trading today but, due to the higher volatility that accompanies Friday’s we are not trading as usual. Aggressive setups shown on chart above for you brave souls.
December 1st @ 10:27 UTC - We unfortunately never got a good 1h bullish signal to get long off yesterday so we missed out on the great rally (congrats to those of you who took the support bounce) but, as we always say: better to miss out than to miss your equity. Today we are long at current price (5720) after the break above our blue top falling resistance with targets at 5740, 5760, 5790 and 5820 for 100 pips profit. We will look to close and get short if the break is not sustained.
Nobember 30th @ 9:02 UTC - All targets hit (just barely!) on our long from yesterday for 105 pips profit. Pair is currently sitting right on our rising trend support and we are looking to get short on a break below this support (currently at 5520) with targets at 20/25/30/30 pips for 105 pips profit, or we will look to take an aggressive long off of a good 1h bullish candlepro signal here (and will look to close and get short for the primary if the trade goes against us).
November 29th @ 9:30 UTC - We are long at current price (1.5550) as pair has just broken above the blue falling resistance (well actually above the dotted green line above the blue resistance) and we are targeting 20/25/30/30 pips for 105 pips profit. We are bullish above the bottom rising trend support and bearish on breaks below.
November 28th @ 12:08 UTC - GU is rising – but not as quickly and aggressively as EU and AU. Not surprisingly this pair also had the steepest drop last week so we will primarily be looking for reasons to get short today. On any good rise we will look for solid 1h/4h CP bearish signals to get short on (following the backtesting for our TP #s), or we will look to take an aggressive long on a dip to 5460 support with targets at 20/25/25/25 pips for 95 pips profit.
November 25th @ 7:49 UTC - Chart updated with aggressive setups above. Yesterday was a major bank holiday and most major traders are not trading today – this creates thin market conditions and we will not be trading today due to the greatly increased risk of volatility. Have a good weekend and we will see you Monday!
November 24th @ 6:52 UTC - U.S. Banks are closed today for Thanksgiving. With the banks closed the next two days will be very low volume, and that low volume can lead to big swings on low liquidity or just hours of watching the pair barely move. Either way, our main trading plan is to take the time off and you should too! We have updated the chart above with trading setups (we consider all trading especially aggressive/risky these two days and will not be trading ourselves). PRO members will get all charts update for all pairs today and tomorrow.
November 23rd @ 8:33 UTC - Our long yesterday got 30 pips in the profit (above 5660 resistance) but we closed out at break even as we were giving the trade a little room to breathe to capture more pips. Today’s falling resistance is in black on the chart above and you know the drill – short above, long below. The long is our primary and with resistance currently at 5630 and falling fast (actually looks like we might have a very steep resistance line here shortly) we will target 20/25/25/30 pips for 100 pips profit on a break. For shorts we will look for small timeframe bearish candlesticks.
November 22nd @ 6:24 UTC - No trade taken yesterday as the pair never crossed our falling resistance to trigger our long. Congrats to short term traders who took the small timeframe bearish candlesticks under resistance for our primary setup yesterday (we passed). Today we are once again looking to get long on a break above blue falling resistance, currently at 5660, with targets at 20/25/30/30 pips for 105 pips profit. We are ultimately bearish on the pair and will look to close our long and get short when a new rising support forms and is broken (with the new PRO Charts feature coming out soon you’ll be able to see updated charts and S/R lines throughout the day!)
November 21st @ 7:56 UTC - Similar to the EU and AU the GU is in a medium term downtrend and we will primarly look for reasons to get short under the current blue resistance or on good rallies above 5800. In the short-term we will get long on a break above the steep blue resistance on today’s chart, currently at 5750 and falling fast, with targets at 20/25/30/30 pips for 105 pips total.
November 18th @ 8:21 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from PRO Analysis! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
November 17th @ 9:08 UTC - no trades taken yesterday as price never rose to trigger our short and as stated we were not looking for longs. We are tracking a blue falling resistance now and will look to get long on a break above (currently at 5770 and falling) with targets at 20/25/25/25 pips for 95 pips. We will then look to get short if/when a new rising support is formed and is broken. There is of course room for smaller timeframe shorts off the underside of the falling support with candlepro confirmation.
November 16th @ 9:10 UTC - Our long got stopped out at 5890 for -25 pips after 5930 (the first resistance level we stated we would start looking to get short at) sharply rejected price action and started the nearly 200 pips fall we are still watching. We never did get our short in yesterday as price dropped too fast to get a solid entry price. Today with price action a bit jagged we will look to get short on a rise to the 5850-5900 resistance band with good confirmation (candlepro or a rising support break) and targets (from 5870) at 5850, 5820, 5790 and 5760 for 110 pips profit. We are not looking for longs at this time though there is a setup for an aggressive long at current price levels for aggressive traders, as the pair is oversold and in need of a minor technical correction.
November 15th @ 7:58 UTC - We ultimately passed on the short we were tracking as the candle closed a little too low for our Risk/Reward taste, but there was good 1h candlestick confirmation just 40 minutes after yesterday signal as the 08:00 candle closed as a nice Three Outside Down that dropped for another 110 pips. Today we have just gotten long on the break above 5915, which is a topside break to the blue consolidation channel shown above. We will play it tight as we are bearish on the pair with targets at 5935, 5960, 5990 and 6020 for 105 pips profit. We will look for signs to stop and reverse all along the way, at 5930, 5970 and on any good CandlePRO confirmation as shorts are our preferred trades right now.
November 14th @ 8:21 UTC - We are bearish on the pair after the breakout of the tight channel shown in black on today’s chart (support was at 6050) and we will look for any pullback close to this area as a reason to get short. From 6040 we will target 6020, 6000, 5970 and 5940 for 100 pips. We will consider entering lower with candlestick confirmation.
November 11th @ 7:14 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from PRO Analysis! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
November 10th @ 9:05 UTC - Looks like yesterday’s aggressive short wasn’t so aggressive after all as all targets were hit rather quickly for 110 pips profit. We have an aggressive long open now around current price (5920) as our blue falling resistance shown above has a break to the topside at the moment. We will look to close if the break is not sustained, otherwise we are targeting 5940, 5965, 5995 and 6025 for 105 pips profit.
November 9th @ 5:08 UTC - We have an aggressive short open from current price at 1.6085 (break of top blue rising support on chart above) with targets at 6065, 6035, 6005 and 5975 for 110 pips profit. Will look to close and get long near 1.6050 support with good candlepro confirmation as the long term trend is still very bullish.
November 8th @ 5:00 UTC - No trades triggered yesterday as the pair never dipped enough for our primary or secondary trades. Today we are looking to trade off of a more aggressive support line (shown in blue above) with our primary setup as a short on a break below this support currently at 1.60 with targets at 5980, 5950, 5920 and 5890 for 110 pips. We will look to close and get long if the break below 1.60 is not sustained and with candlepro confirmation, targets at 1.6020, 6050, 6080 and 6110 for 110 pips profit.
November 7th @ 8:31 UTC - GU was great for us last week, unfortunately the charts are a bit mixed this Monday morning without a clear, high probability setup for us at the moment. The best setup we see on the 4h charts is a long on a dip to 1.5900 (where the black rising trend support is shown above) with candlepro confirmation and targets at 5925, 5950, 5975 and 1.60 for 100 pips. There is also room for an aggressive short below 1.5900 but we will pass on that setup as the overall pair has been in a very solid uptrend for the past month, which also makes us bullish in general.
November 4th @ 4:31 UTC - Yesterday’s resistance was broken a few hours after our signal, which closed out our short for 70 pips and then we got long, as indicated, for another 100 pips. We have been riding this pair up and down all week on S/R breaks and we will look to continue that next week. No setups look good enough today for us to break our Friday rule; we are leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we are looking for.
November 3rd @ 5:34 UTC - Our break below yesterday’s rising trend support has been good for 90 pips so far and is still open. We will close on a break above today’s falling trend resistance (blue line) and also look to get long at that time. GU has been trending cleanly (nice up and down channels works well with swing trades). That resistance is currently at 1.5925 and dropping quickly (as each candle closes the resistance gets lower) and from that level we will target 5955, 5985, 6010 and 6035 for 110 pips profit.
November 2nd @ 6:02 UTC - We got long on a nice hammer at 07:00 yesterday which got stopped out for -50 as the pair dropped on general USD strength. Today we are looking for more reasons to get short starting with a break below 1.5920 opening up 1.5900, 5875, 5850 and 5825 for 95 pips profit. We aren’t opposed to longs but without a decent support line we don’t see a good long setup at the moment.
November 1st @ 6:00 UTC - We saw a nice 150 pip rise from our bullish outlook rise yesterday (leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for) and we are once again looking for reasons to get long on dips above 1.60 with targets at 1.6025, 6050, 6080 and 6110 for 110 pips profit. On a break below 1.60 we will look to get short with targets at 1.5980, 5950, 5925 and 5900 for 100 pips profit.
October 31st @ 7:24 UTC - Like EU and AU the GU has been in a clear uptrend for weeks now despite the recent steep drop and we will continue to look for longs, starting near current price of 1.60 with candle confirmation and targets at 6020, 6045, 6075 and 6100 for 100 pips potential. There is an opportunity for an aggressive short on a rise to 1.61 with candle confirmation and target back down to 1.60 in 25 pip chunks for targets.
October 28th @ 7:59 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from CP signals! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
October 27th @ 5:58 UTC - We had a nice sustained break of the blue rising trend support yesterday on the 08:00 candle (closing at 12:00 UTC) which closed at 5972 – which by that time was below our blue line (shown in orange today). That trade got 80+ into the profit but we closed out for only +30 as we we still looking for more losses toward our ultimate target of 110 pips profit. Today we are tracking 1.6050 as key resistance and will look to get short below and long above this level. On a sustained break above 1.6050 will target 6070, 6095, 6025 and 6055 for 105 pips. On a solid bearish candlestick under 6050 we will take a single lot aggressive short with targets at 6030, 6005, 5975 and 5945 for 105 pips profit.
October 26th @ 3:38 UTC - GU continued to bounce along the blue support we were tracking yesterday giving plenty of 20-30-50 pip opportunities for scalpers to shave a little off each bounce. We stayed flat, waiting for a more solid longer term signal and are still flat currently. We are still tracking the same rising support and looking for the same general setups: long above support and short on a sustained break below. Support is currently at 5970 and a sustained break below this level would open up 5950, 5920, 5890 and 5860 for 110 pips profit. Longs above 5970 are also a valid setup (perhaps more valid given the bullish short term technicals) but we would wait for candlestick confirmation (any timeframe) and keep our targets tight – 20-30 pips per lot.
October 25th @ 7:14 UTC - We were very bullish in yesterday’s analysis and that proved to be correct as the pair continued to rise, unfortunately there was never a good enough dip for us to gain an entry into the pair :/. Today we are tracking the blue rising trend support (above) as our key pivot and will look to get long above it and short below it. Primary is a long with 30m or 1h candlestick confirmation on a dip to support (currently around 5950) with targets at 5975, 1.60, 6025 and 6050 for 100 pips profit. Normally in a setup such as this one there is an opportunity for a short on a sustained break below the rising trend support but given the consistent and persistent bullishness of this pair we have little confidence that a break below would be sustained, so we will pass on that short setup today.
October 24th @ 6:05 UTC - GU is looking especially bullish after the topside break of the blue consolidation channel shown above, but we are currently flat and waiting for a better opportunity to establish a long. Our primary setup to start this week will be a long on a dip to the top of the consolidation channel with candlestick confirmation, around 1.5850, with targets at 5875, 5900, 5930 and 5960 for 110 pips profit. There is an aggressive setup to get short under 1.60 with good bearish candlesticks targeting 1.5975, 5950, 5920 and 5890 for 110 pips potential.
October 21st @ 7:12 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from CP signals! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
October 20th @ 6:44 UTC - The break of rising trend support we were tracking did not occur until the 20:00 candle at 5770 and that has gotten about 70 pips in the profit so far, though we closed out for +50. The support line we were tracking is shown in orange above on today’s chart. Today we are looking to get long on a break above 5760 with targets at 5785, 5815, 5845 and 5875 for 115 pips. If we see some bearish signals around 5800 we will look to close our long and short with targets at 5775, 5745 and 5715 for 85 pips profit.
October 19th @ 6:37 UTC - The pair took a bearish turn as predicted yesterday, but we stayed sidelined as we were waiting for better confirmation – as we always say it is better to miss out than to miss your equity ;). Today we are looking for a downside break of blue rising trend support (currently around 5720) with targets at 5700, 5675, 5645 and 5615 for 105 pips potential. We will also look to get long on a dip to 5550 (black line on chart above) with targets at 5580, 5610, 5640 and 5670 for 120 pips potential.
October 18th @ 6:20 UTC - No trades taken yesterday as neither trade setup was triggered. We are bearish on the pair as the rise has begun to contract and each bullish move has gotten a bit shorter, showing signs of exhaustion and reversal. We are waiting for 4h signals around current price and will look to get short anywhere between 5800-5850 (the closer to 5850 the better). We will target down to 5700 in 25 pips targets (e.g. 5775, 5750, 5725 and 5700).
October 17th @ 7:43 UTC - GU, like AU and EU, has been in an uptrend for most of October – the difference however is that the GU uptrend has been much more volatile, like a dog being jerked along on a leash. The dog of course being the British economy and the holder of the leash being the billions of dollars being injected by central banks to keep the world economy humming. We don’t expect this uptrend to continue forever but, for the time being, we will stick with the trend and look to get long on a break above 5850 with targets at 5870, 5895, 5925 and 5955 for 105 pips potential. We will look to get short on a rally to 1.60 (or even close) with candlestick confirmation as we believe a lot of profit taking will take place in this area and will lead to a 200-300 pip drop.
October 14th @ 6:30 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and good pips this week!
October 13th @ 5:38 UTC - Another great day for our GU trades as the sustained break of 1.5620 we were looking for closed at 1.5622 on the 1h charts – just 2 pips above where we wanted to enter! All targets were hit and then some for 130 pips (105 pips on our first lot) with the entire rise over 170 pips and still climbing.. Today we are looking to breakout trade between 1.5800 and 1.5700 with a break above 1.5800 targeting 5820, 5845, 5875 and 5900 for 100 pips potential and a break below 1.5700 targeting 5680, 5655, 5625 and 5600 for 100 pips potential. There is an opportunity for an aggressive long on a break above 5660 (1h falling trend resistance), though we will be watching 5700 resistance closely to close out that aggressive long.
October 12th @ 6:29 UTC - All targets were hit on our short from yesterday (the tightened stop at 5670 just held several times!) for 115 pips per lot as the pair dropped to just below our last target :). Today we are tracking the blue falling trend resistance and looking to get short beneath it with 30m, 1h and 4h candlepro signals. Resistance is currently at 1.5600 and we will target down in 25 pip chunks (5575, 5550, 5525 and 5500) for 100 pips profit potential. We will also look to get long on a sustained break above 5620 with targets at 5640, 5665, 5695 and 5725 for 105 pips potential.
October 11th @ 7:54 UTC - we finally got our break of rising trend support on the 20:00 candle from yesterday at 5640 which has gotten 25 pips in the profit so far and is about 5 pips in the profit currently. We have tightened our stop to 5670 to only risk 30 pips on the trade and our targets are @ 5645, 5615, 5585 and 5555 for 115 pips potential. We will look to stop and reverse above 5670 with long targets at 5695, 5725, 5755 and 5785 for 115 pips potential.
October 10th @ 9:38 UTC - We are primarily looking for shorts at this level and will look to get short on a sustained break below the blue rising trend support line currently at 5600 with targets at 5575, 5550, 5520 and 5490 for 110 pips potential. There are also opportunities for aggressive longs if we see a drop to the 1.5540 zone with bullish candlepro signals and targets at 5565, 5595, 5625 and 5650 for 110 pips potential.
October 7th @ 8:30 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday.
October 6th @ 7:45 UTC - No trades taken yesterday as our falling trend resistance was broken (cancelling the short setup) but did not sustain a break above 5500 so the long was also not activated. Today we are looking to get short on a sustained break below 5410 with targets at 5390, 5365, 5335 and 5305 for 105 pips potential. We are also looking to get short on a rally to 5600 resistance zone with bearish candlestick confirmation and targets at 5580, 5555, 5525 and 5500 for 100 pips potential.
October 5th @ 6:45 UTC - Our long from yesterday got stopped out for +10 pips after getting +45 pips into the profit. Today our primary trade is to get long on a break above 5500 (where blue resistance line is) with targets at 5520, 5545, 5575 and 5600 for 100 pips potential. We will also get short on a bearish candlestick signal around current price (5440-5450) with targets at 5425, 5400, 5375 and 5450 for 90-100 pips potential.
October 4th @ 4:55 UTC - There was a decent 30m signal to get short on at 10:00 that got 80+ in the profit within 5 hours but we passed on the entry as it was a bit far from the falling trend resistance (at 5580) and signals were a bit mixed. Congrats to those traders who got in short with or without confirmations the pair fell another 150+ pips on the day yesterday. Today we are looking for more of the same – our primary setup is to get short on a rise to falling trend resistance currently around 5520 with candlestick confirmation and targets at 5500, 5475, 5450 and 5420 for 100 pips profit. We did establish an aggressive long at 5420 just recently on the last 4h candle which closed as a decent inverted hammer. Just like AU we believe the recent acceleration in the downtrend could mean a correction is due. Because it is against trend we have already tightened stop to just below 5400 and entered on a single lot only with targets at 5440 (hit), 5465, 5495 and 5525 for 105 pips potential.
October 3rd @8:43 UTC - GU has been a bit choppy of late, first with the topside break of the long term falling trend resistance and now with the downside break of the orange rising trend support we were tracking last week. This latest downside break gives credibility to the analysis that the latest rise was merely consolidation and so we will look for reasons to get short as long as 5700 resistance holds. Our primary trade will be to get short under the blue falling trend resistance we are currently tracking around 5585 with lower timeframe (30m+) candlepro signals and targets at 5560, 5530, 5500 and 5475 for 110 pips potential. There is space for an aggressive long on a sustained break above 5600 with targets at 5625, 5650, 5675 and 5700 for 100 pips potential.
September 30th @ 5:05 UTC - Aggressive long on a topside break of 5675 was triggered and the first target was hit at 5695. Because it was an aggressive trade we only entered on a single lot so we moved the SL to break even instead of taking any profit and when the price swung back down we got closed out at break even (which traders should always count as a win). It is Friday so we are not trading as usual but for you aggressive traders our trading setups are shown on the chart above, with our primary being a short on a rise to the 1.5800 resistance zone with candlestick confirmation and targets at 5780, 5755, 5725 and 5700 100 pips.
September 29th @ 6:45 UTC - Pair is consolidating in a tightening triangular pattern and we will look to take a breakout trade in either direction. A top side breakout of 5675 open up 5695, 5720, 5750 and 5780 for 105 pips potential. A downside break of 1.5550 opens up 5530, 5505, 5475 and 5445 for 105 pips potential.
September 28th *Intraday Update* @ 15:12 UTC - As we laid out in our analysis yesterday we moved our SL to break even on our short after 1h hammer (08:00) only 3 pips away from the support we were watching at 5550. We then closed our short and got long after another, more solid, bullish engulfing TRIPLE signal occurred at 10:00 and all long targets were hit on that long for ~90 pips profit (signal got over 130 pips into the profit). Currently we are flat and looking for opportunities to get long again on a break above 5680 with targets at 5700, 5725, 5755 and 5785 for 105 pips potential. There is room for aggressive shorts under the falling trend resistance we are tracking (top blue line) around 5660 with targets at 5640, 5615 and 5590 for 70 pips potential.
September 27th @ 6:38 UTC - GU continued to consolidate upward yesterday (in line with our aggressive long setup which called for long above the rising trend support) reaching just under 1.5600 – our primary short. We entered on a delayed pullback around current price (5590) after the two bearish 4h signals around 1.5550 (16:00 hanging man and 20:00 bearish engulfing). We are targeting 5570, 5545, 5515 and 5485 for 115 pips potential. We will look to move our SL to break even around if we see some congestion and bullish candlepro signals around 5550 as that is strong 1h rising trend support. Aggressive traders could look to get long at those levels for another swing up to 5600.
September 26th @ 6:10 UTC - GU has been consolidating into a nice triangle wedge pattern over the past several days after the challenge of 1.5300 was turned back on Thursday. The pair is slowly approaching the daily falling trend resistance (top blue line) where we will look to sell with a good bearish candlepro signal around 1.5550 or 1.5600. Targets from 1.5600 are 1.5575, 5550, 5525, 5500, 5470 and 5440. IF the short entry occurs close to 1.5550 we will target 5525, 5500, 5470 and 5440. Finally there is room for aggressive longs on dips to the bottom blue rising trend support (currently around 1.5400) with bullish candlepro signals are targets 5420, 5445, 5475 and 5500 for up to 100 pips per lot.
September 23 @ 7:01 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. Please see the chart below for the updated S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday.
September 22 @ 8:13 UTC - Longs are more aggressive indeed :). Our short from the bearish doji at 0:00 yesterday was dead on and we got more than the original 90 pips were targeting from yesterday as the pair dropped like a bowling bowl through any support it could find. We are looking to get short today on any good rallies, with ~1.5650 providing the best entry point at the moment (the zone where the long blue falling trend resistance is), with candlepro confirmation targeting 5625, 5600, 5575 and 5550 for 100 pips potential. We will also get short on any solid bearish signal on a 1h/30m confluence signal (two bearish signals across both timeframes) targeting 5400.
September 21 @ 6:08 UTC - We got short at 5730 (around current price) on a bearish doji but only with a single lot because the pair appears to be limping through its blue falling trend resistance line. We are targeting 5700, 5670 and 5640 for 90 pips potential. We have tightened our SL to 5770 however, to only risk 40 pips on the trade. For shorter-term traders still looking to enter we believe the pair will likely enter a range and would pick candlepro signals to get short on any good rally or long on any good dip (classic buy low, sell high), though we obviously are more bearish than bullish so we view longs as more aggressive.
September 20 @ 6:09 UTC - We never saw the rise to 1.5800 yesterday so our primary setup was not triggered, which we are OK with. As we always say: better to miss out on a trade than to miss your hard-earned equity. Today we are looking for the same basic setup (short on a rise to blue falling trend resistance) but a bit lower to reflect the fact that the resistance line has moved lower now. Primary is a short near 5750 with candlepro confirmation and targets at 5725, 5700, 5670 and 5640 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to take an aggressive long on a sustained break above 5770 which be a significant break of our long-running falling trend resistance, targeting 5790 (tight), 5820, 5850 and 5880 for 90 pips potential.
September 19 @ 7:00 UTC - GU gapped open beneath our rising trend support from last week and is currently consolidating above 5700 as the markets search for direction on the day. Our primary trade (and the only trade we are currently looking for in this pair) is a short on a rise to 1.58 resistance (falling intraday resistance shown in blue above) with CandlePRO confirmation confirming the reversal and targets at 5775, 5750, 5720 and 5690 for 110 pips potential.
September 16 @ 5:21 UTC - Charts udpated with trade setups. Since today is friday we will not be trading, and view most trading as much more aggressive than normal as Friday trading tends to be light and volatile. Safe pipping and see you next week!
September 15 @ 3:21 UTC - No trades were triggered yesterday as the pair never rallied to the blue falling trend resistance to trigger our short and never broke above our yellow, more aggressive, falling trend resistance to trigger aggressive long trade. Today we are looking for nearly the exact same trades just in a little different price zones as the resistance levels have continued to fall. Primary setup is a short on a rally to falling trend resistance currently at 1.5900 with candlepro confirmation and targets at 5875, 5850, 5825 and 5800 for 100 pips potential. We are still looking for an aggressive long on s sustained break above 5800 (1h or 4h) with targets at 5820 (tight), 5845, 5875 and 5900 though we will only use a single lot on that aggressive trade as the trend is very clearly bearish at the moment.
September 14 @ 7:30 UTC - All targets were hit on aggressive short yesterday (sustained break below 5815) for ~75 pips and today we are once again looking for short opportunities. The pair does not currently have any good rising trend supports to offer us an opportunity for a sustained break, so instead we will just stick with our primary trade setup which is a short on a rally to falling trend resistance currently at 1.5900 with candlepro confirmation and targets at 5875, 5850, 5825 and 5800 for 100 pips potential. There IS an opportunity for an aggressive long on s sustained break above 5800 (1h or 4h) with targets at 5820 (tight), 5845, 5875 and 5900 though we will only use a single lot on that aggressive trade as the trend is very clearly bearish at the moment.
September 13 @ 6:10 UTC - We are moving our short entry point down to 1.5930 to reflect the falling trend line’s progress since yesterday, with targets at 1.5905, 5875, 5845 and 5815 for 115 pips potential. We are also looking for an aggressive short on a sustained break below 5815 with targets at 5800 (tight!), 5775, 5750 and 5720 for 95 pips potential.
September 12 @ 5:23 UTC - We are primarily looking to get short on a rise to the blue falling trend resistance on the chart above, currently around 1.5970, with CandlePRO confirmation on the smaller timeframe charts. Targets are at 1.5950, 5920, 5890 and 5860 for 110 pips potential. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long above 1.5800 support with a 1h or above candlepro confirmation and targets at 5825, 5850, 5880 and 5910 for 110 pips potential.
September 9 @ 5:05 UTC - We closed out yesterday’s short for +60 after the pair rallied and chewed into our profit a bit. Today is Friday so we are sidelined (we consider Friday trading to be riskier than usual do to low Friday volume) but for those looking to trade our primary today would be a short on a sustained break below 1.5950 with targets at 5925, 5900, 5870 and 5840. Or a long a sustained break above 1.6050 with targets at 6075, 6100, 6130 and 6160.
September 8 @ 7:47 UTC - We were tempted to get short on the 08:00 hanging man (100% formation strength with 3.89 profit factor) as the price did not get close enough to our primary resistance at 1.0650. However when the following candle got to 1.0640 (within 10 pips) we did get short after the candle close around 1.0600. That short is currently +80 in the profit and still open (see yesterday’s chart above for what we were looking for).
For those still on the sidelines our primary trade is still get short on rallies to the falling trend resistance currently around 1.5980 with targets at 5960, 5935, 5905 and 5880 for 100 pips potential. We are overall bearish on the pair but are also very aware that the pound is oversold and in need of a correction soon.
September 7 @ 3:49 UTC - resistance held yesterday and our short was triggered under falling trend resistance off of a 08:00 1h DOUBLE Shooting Star that boasted 100% formation strength and a high profit factor. It dropped for 200+ pips after that shooting star but we stuck to the plan and closed out with ~100 pips. Today we are looking to continue getting short on the pair, especially on rallies to falling trend resistance currently around 1.0650 with targets at 0625, 0600, 0570 and 0540 for 110 pips potential.
September 6 @ 7:51 UTC - We are bearish on this pair and will look to get long on a rallies with 1.6180 support being the primary place we will look. We want decent to good CandlePRO confirmation around this level to confirm our short before entering. Targets from 6180 @ 6155, 6125, 6100 and 6070 for 110 pips potential. There is an opportunity for an aggressive long on a sustained break above 6130 though are only looking for the more conservative short at the moment as we are taking aggressive positions in other pairs today already.
September 5 @ 6:31 UTC - No signal for today as US Banks are closed for Labor Day. With banks closed the markets will be much thinner than usual. We expect price to drift along with no clear direction until money re-enters the market Tuesday, and we will hold off trading until then. Of course, there is always the alternative in thin markets: that a few players will push the exchange rate further than normal and there will be increased volatility.
September 2 @ 3:26 UTC - All targets were hit on our short from yesterday for 110 pips profit. Our calls for shorts on bearish CP signals also would have produced a nice profit on nearly any timeframe. For today we are still bearish and would be looking to short on rallies to 6230 as our primary trade, but because it is Friday and markets are thin we will leave the trading to our more aggressive traders. Targets from 6230 @ 6205, 6180, 6150 and 6120 for 110 pips potential.
September 1 @ 5:53 UTC - We got our hourly sustained break of 6280 yesterday to activate our primary trade, catching the candle close at 6265. This trade is currently about 30 pips in the profit and we are targeting: 6240 (hit), 6215, 6185 and 6155 for 110 pips potential. We have tightened our SL to break even at 6265. to For those looking to enter we are still currently bearish on the pair and would look to re-enter on any rallies. There is a descending consolidation pattern on the charts currently (blue lines) but we hesitate to call it a continuation pattern quite yet with the steep curve weak support. More likely we will see a rise above the top blue line which would lead to a rally in the pair. We would then look for any good CandlePRO signal under 6300 resistance to re-enter short.
August 31 @ 9:56 UTC - GU never rallied high enough for us to get another short entry established, however we are currently tracking the 4h charts which show a potential sustained break of the latest rising trend support (blue line). We are looking for this pair to continue zig-zagging downward so a sustained break below 1.6280 would open up 6255, 6225, 6200 and 6170 over the following days. A more conservative trade would be to wait for more of a rally to 1.6350 resistance (our primary zone from yesterday) with targets at 6325, 6300, 6270 and 6240 for 110 pips potential.
August 30 @ 10:25 UTC - We saw a beautiful shooting star yesterday with an extremely high profit factor (over 6!) in CP yesterday that was just under the 6450 resistance we were watching. Whether you got in on that signal or on the sustained break below the blue rising trend support you made good pips yesterday as the pair is currently down around 1.6300. We are leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for (which more or less played out perfectly). Today we are going to continue looking for shorts on USD strength, with our primary trade being a short on a rally to 1.6350 resistance + bearish candlestick confirmation and targets at 6325, 6300, 6270 and 6240 for 110 pips potential.
August 29 @ 7:07 UTC - Good thing we stood aside last Friday on low volume: the pair continued to rise and has re-challenged 1.6400 resistance. As we always say – most time the best trade is no trade at all. The pair has been making higher highs and higher lows (bullish trend) the past couple days and this has been accelerating since the markets opened this morning with steeper curve. Given the acceleration in the bullish channel since market open we expect the rally to end and will be primarily looking for shorts in a rise to 6450 or even 6500 with candlestick signals, targeting a re-challenge of 1.6300 over the week. For more short-term traders we are looking for a dip to get long on (short-term trend is bullish) near rising trend support at 1.6350 with targets at 6375, 6400, 6430 and 6460 for 110 pips profit. We will also look to get short on a sustained break below 1.6330 with targets at 6305, 6275, 6250 and 6220.
August 26 @9:28 UTC - our long form earlier in the week got stopped out for a small loss after hitting its first target (we tightened the SL on the first target but still gave it some room to breath). We did take a short position on the sustained break below the bottom support line of our consolidation wedge (blue lines on chart above) which did hit all targets for a nice profit. We will not be trading today (Friday + Bernanke speech) but for aggressive traders we would be looking to get short again on a sustained break below 1.6295 (black rising trend support) with targets down to 6230 and 6150.
August 24 @ 9:12 UTC - Our long got triggered yesterday on the sustained break above 6530 and that position is currently still open with targets at 6555, 6585, 6615 and 6645. We will add to our position with any break above 6600 and remain very bullish with the current 4h consolidation period.
August 23 @ 7:35 UTC - We got caught in our short yesterday which closed below our support level by a mere 1 pip. Our SL was tripped for 35 pips on each lot. Today we are looking to get short under 1.6425 primarily, but will look to long any sustained break above 6530 as well. Short targets from 6425: 6400, 6375, 6345 and 6315. Long targets from 6530: 6555, 6585, 6615 and 6645.
August 22 @ 2:15 UTC - GU hit a consolidation period last week which shows that bulls are less sure about the value of the pound vs the dollar and have begun to shed some long positions ahead of 1.70. We will look to go short on a sustained break of 1.6450 to try and ride the potential bearish correction, with targets at 6425, 6400, 6370 and 6340 for 110 pips profit. There is room for aggressive longs around 1.6450 with candlestick confirmation as the rising trend support line that we are looking to trade in the primary (on a break) can also act as a trampoline for bulls looking to re-enter. On a long from 6450 we would keep targets tighter at: 6470, 6495, 6520 and 6545 for 95 pips potential.
August 19 @ 9:30 UTC - We do not trade on Fridays due to thin volume conditions in the markets on Fridays which can create choppy, volatile and unpredictable price action. GU and UChf trades got triggered yesterday but we will not open any new positions before the weekend. For those aggressive trader’s looking to brave it we have updated the chart above with trade setups we would be pursuing on a normal trading day. Happy pipping and we will see you on Monday.
August 18 @ 14:06 UTC - Intraday Update - GU has been laddering up for the past several days and the latest “rung” in this ladder is blue falling trend resistance on our chart above. We are looking for bearish CandlePRO signals on 30m and above timeframes to get short on under 6515 with targets at 6500 (very tight first target), 6475, 6450 and 6420 for 95 pips potential. Our preferred trade is actually to long on a sustained break above 6520 with targets at 6540 6565 6595 and 6625 for 105 pips potential. On a dip we expect 6360 to provide initial support and will look for bullish CP signals and resistance breaks.
August 17 @ 10:11 UTC - We saw our sustained break of 6375 resistance (our primary trade level from yesterday’s analysis) at the 10:00 candle and our long ended up being good for almost 100 pips per lot we left open. We will leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for, but for today we are switching to looking for a short for our primary trade, and we will start looking at 6385 – on a sustained break below this level we will short with targets at 6365, 6340, 6310 and 6280 for 105 pips potential. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long in the neighborhood of 6340 with targets back up to 6450.
August 16 @ 6:06 UTC - +85 pips yesterday as our long on a sustained break above 6315 jumped to our third target after a slow start. Today we are again looking for a long on sustained break above 6375 resistance (top blue line on chart) with targets at 6400, 6430, 6460 and 6490. We will also take a short on a sustained break below 1.6350 (where rising blue line is acting as intraday support) with downside targets at 6325, 6300, 6270 and 6240.
August 15 @ 9:07 UTC - GU is short term bearish and has recently begun to form a nice pennant pattern on the 1h charts (shown with blue lines on chart above). We are primarily bullish given the past few days of action and will be looking to get long on a sustained break above 1.6315 with targets at 6340, 6370, 6400 and 6430 for 115 pips potential. we will also look to get short on a sustained break of 6250 with bearish targets at 6225, 6200, 6170 and 6140 for 110 pips potential. We will be cautious around 6200 for bullish reversal signals in CP as there is a rising trend support line in that area.
August 12 @ 7:54 UTC - We do not trade on Fridays due to thin volume conditions in the markets on Fridays which can create choppy, volatile and unpredictable price action. Given this week’s volatility we expect the pair to behave more strangely than normal. For those aggressive trader’s looking to brave it we have updated the chart above with trade setups we would be pursuing on a normal trading day. Happy pipping and we will see you on Monday.
August 11 @ 9:33 UTC - Our primary trade yesteday booked 100+ profit as the pair dropped through our primary entry level and continued to plummet. We will leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for; today we are looking to get short under 6180 (falling trend resistance) with candlestick confirmation and targets at 6160, 6130, 6100 and 6075. There is also an aggressive long on a sustained break above 6180 with targets up to 6270.
August 10 @ 6:24 UTC - Well pretty much no matter which trade setup you went with yesterday you were in the profit – our short hit all its targets for 105 pips in a few short hours. The pair then bounced off of 6180 and kicked up some bullish CP signals just under the 6230 area we were watching for a long. Then the pair rallied up to the 6300s only to kick up some bearish candlesticks and fall back down.
Today we are looking to get short on a sustained break below 6250 with targets at 6225, 6200, 6170 and 6140 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to get long on a sustained break above 6300 with targets at 6325, 6350, 6380 and 6410 for 110 pips potential.
August 9 @ 12:33 UTC - We have just established a short position on the sustained break of the latest rising trend support line (see chart above) with targets at 6305, 6280, 6250 and 6220 for 105 pips total. For those still looking to enter we are primarily bearish today and would look to re-enter short on a substantial rally with a good CP signal, targeting 6230. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long at 6230 (strong daily support) with targets back up to 6300 and 6360.
August 5 @4:50 UTC - It is Friday (with the increased volatility and low volume that Friday’s bring) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas (arrows represent trading ideas). Have a safe weekend and we’ll see you next week for an exciting week.
August 3 @ 4:47 UTC - Our short from yesterday got about 80 pips in the profit before hitting our trailing stop loss for +45 pips per lot (we were looking for the full 110 pips targeted in yesterday’s analysis). We are looking for more opportunities to get short today, particularly around 1.6300 resistance with targets back down to 1.6275, 6250, 6225 and 6200 for ~100 pips profit.
August 2 @ 4:20 UTC - We have just established a short position above 1.6300 as the pair has limped through our last rising trend support line (yellow lines on chart above). Our short targets are 1.6275, 6250, 6220 and 6190 for 110 pips potential.
August 1 @ 7:07 UTC - Like the EU and AU, the GU has a lot of recent bullishness which shifts our technical outlook to have a much more bullish tint. To take advantage of this we will look to get long on a dip and break of falling trend resistance and 1.6360 is where we will start looking on any dip. Long targets from 6360 are 6385, 6415, 6445 and 6475.
July 28 @ 7:37 UTC - Our short from yesterday hit all targets for and then some for ~80 pips profit. We then opened and closed a long near 6330 as price limped through our falling resistance line but failed to go anywhere. We are currently looking to get short on a sustained break below the latest rising trend support line around 6315, our short targets will be 6300, 6275, 6245 and 6215 for 100 pips.
July 27 @ 7:19 UTC - Bullish 1h signals at 08:00, 09:00, 12:00, 15:00, 15:00 all provide nice opportunites to get long in line with our trading idea from yesterday for 40-50 pips each. We will leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for, and today we will continue the same strategy of looking to get long on dips. We do have an aggressive short currently open from 6420 (about 5 pips in the profit right now) and we are looking for a re-challenge of 6360 for ~60 pips, though we will tighten the SL at +25 pips if it gets that far, and we will look to long on good CP signals anywhere under 1.6400 (especially around 1.6360) with targets at 6380, 6405, 6435, and 6465 for 105 pips potential.
July 26 @ 5:59 UTC - We did not take the aggressive long yesterday (though it would have generated great pips in hindsight), but we did take a long on the sustained break of our falling trend support top line from yesterday’s analysis at 1.6340. The pair got 25 pips in the profit, we tightened our SL to break even and now we are once again flat for no loss / no gain as the pair turned back down. We will look for any dips and CP signals to get long off of, and there is also an opportunity to get short on the latest rising trend support (last yellow line), which is currently at 1.6330, with targets back down to 1.6305, 1.6285 and 1.6255.
July 25 @ 12:55 UTC (Intraday Update) - Finally turned up last week after a bearish run throughout almost all of June, and the latest consolidation pattern appears bullish as well. We will watch the bottom 1h support line (yellow line on chart above) and look to get long around 1.6280 with good CP confirmation (targets at 1.63, 6325, 6350 and 6380) or short on a sustained break below 6270 with targets at 6250, 6225, 6200 and 6170.
July 22 @ 6:03 UTC - It is Friday (with the increased volatility and low volume that Friday’s bring) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas. Have a great weekend.
July 21 @ 5:51 UTC - Our short from yesterday hit our first target and got 30+ pips in the profit before turning and hitting our tightened SL for a small loss. We declined to take the primary long as the falling resistance line was clear enough at that stage, but we do have a nice support line forming on the charts right now that will offer an opportunity for aggressive traders to get long off of (currently around 1.6150) or for us to get short off a sustained break below 6150 with targets at 6130, 6105, 6080 and 6055 for 95 pips potential.
July 20 @ 4:05 UTC - We stayed flat yesterday as the short we were looking for never developed a sustained break. Congrats to those aggressive traders who took the long off the rising support we were watching yesterday and booked good pips on the rise. Today we are tracking another wedge and will look to get long on a sustained break of 1.6130 with targets at 1.6150, 6175, 6200 and 6230 for 100 pips potential. We will also get short on a sustained break of 1.61 with targets at 1.6080, 6055, 6025 and 1.60 for 100 pips.
(Thanks @upi for catching our numbers mix up!)
July 19 @ 4:43 UTC - We stayed flat yesterday and today we are looking to get short on a sustained break below the latest rising trend support line at 1.6055. Short targets at 1.6035, 6010, 5980 and 5950 for 105 pips potential.
July 18 @ 4:40 UTC - We considered taking an aggressive long as the pair broke our latest falling trend resistance line around 1.61 on the last candle but ultimately passed as the upside is currently capped by 1.6150 (strong 1h falling trend resistance. We will look to get long on a break above 1.6160 with targets at 6180, 6205, 6235 and 6265. We will also look to get short under 6150 on a good CP signal with targets at 6130, 6105, 6080 and 6050.
July 15 @ 7:17 UTC - It is Friday, markets our choppy and US inflation data is out at 13:00 (making markets even more volatile) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas. Have a good weekend.
July 14 @ 6:08 UTC - Our long hit all targets and then some as we kept our last lot open to 1.6120 as our position shot into the profit yesterday (we’ll leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking at). Today we have established an aggressive short around current price level (1.6125) as the price has just broken an aggressive rising trend support line. We are targeting 1.6105, 6080, 6050 and 6020 for 105 pips potential. There is good support around 6040 and we will watch this area closely for a stop-and-buy on our short with targets back up to 6100 and 6160 for 120 pips potential.
July 13 @ 6:59 UTC - We are long from 1.5945 as the price just broke our resistance line (pictured above in black) just a few minutes ago. We are targeting 5965, 5990, 6020 and 6050 for 100 pips. Our stop is below 1.60 where we will stop and sell as that is a major support trend line now.
July 12 @ 5:48 UTC - We took a short on a sustained break below 5940 (drawn on yesterday’s chart above) and closed out for +70 pips. Today we are looking to keep getting short, this time under 5900 with candlestick confirmation and targets at 5880, 5855, 5825 and 5800. We will also look to get long on a sustained break above 5915 with targets up to 6050.
July 11 @ 8:21 UTC - Like our other pairs the recent movement has stretched out our S/R lines so we are now watching a modified triangle consolidation on the GU. We are more interested in the falling trend resistance around 5990 and will look to get long on a sustained break above or get short on a decent CP candlestick below. Short targets from 1.5980 are 5960, 5930, 5900 for 80 pips. Long targets from 1.5990 are 1.6010, 6040 and 6070 for 80 pips.
July 7 @ 9:27 UTC - GU is reaching a bit of an inflection point with fanned resistance line on the topside and rising trend supports underneath – we are looking for a breakout scenario as price breaks out to the topside or bottom, probably with the interest rate decision today as the catalyst. We will look to get long on a break above 6020 with targets at 6045, 6075, 6100 and 6130 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to get short on a sustained break below 5960 with targets at 5935, 5905, 5880 and 5855.
July 6 @ 7:58 UTC - We took yesterday’s GU trade on the chin as pair rallied almost immediately after we took our short which meant -80 on the trade. If we zoom into the 1h chart above we can see that the GU pair is in the midst of some very choppy up and down price action with what appears to be some bearish tendencies as more support lines are being broken than resistance lines. To take advantage of the choppy trading we will look for aggressive longs around 60 on upside breaks of resistance and strong CP buy signals with targets up to 6050-6070, where we will look to get short again with targets back down to 5970.
July 5 @ 7:54 UTC - We have just taken an aggressive short at current price level (6020) after the sustained break below rising trend support (bottom gold line on chart above) and the bounces off falling trend resistance indicate further losses. Our targets are at 6000, 5970, 5940 and 5910 for 110 pips potential. We will close and go long on a sustained break above the falling trend resistance around (currently around 6050) with targets up to 6100 and 6200.
July 1 @ 6:48 UTC - we never got our dip to 1.60 to get long on but the pair was bullish throughout the day and is currently threatening to be a sustained break on the topside of the falling trend resistance at 6075. We will not be trading this pair ahead of the long weekend (US banks are closed on Monday) but if we were we would look to get long on an aggressive buy above 6075 with targets up to 6095, 6125 and 6150.
June 30 @ 9:11 UTC - our setups from yesterday played out as good as you can ask in forex as the pair rose to our target zone of 1.6050-6100 (a shade above actually), kicked up some nice bearish CP signals on the 1h charts and then promptly fell 120+ pips to the rising trend support where is is now. Our short has already been close for solid profit and we are looking to get long again near 1.60 with good confirmation signals (1h at least) and targets to 1.6025, 1.6050, 1.6080 and 1.6110 for 110 pips potential. We are also watching for a good falling trend resistance line to trade off of but we need another minor correction to properly draw a falling trend resistance line – hopefully our primary long will provide that correction :). Leaving yesterday’s chart open to show the setups we were watching for. The bottom rising trend support on that chart (gold line) is the support for today’s primary as well.
June 29 @ 7:40 - we took aggressive longs off of the rising trend support all day but the resistance zone of 1.6050-1.6100 was never reached so our primary short was never engaged. Because no major S/R lines were actually broken or formed yesterday our trade setups remain identical (we are leaving up yesterday’s chart too to show the setups we were looking for): “We will look in the resistance zone between 1.6050-1.61 for bearish confirmation signals, especially on 4h charts, with targets from 1.6050 shorts at 1.6025, 6000, 5970 and 5940. Aggressive short on a a sustained break below rising trend support too (bottom yellow line on chart above and) and aggressive long on a bounce / bullish signal off of that rising trend support.”
June 28 @ 7:52 UTC - GU has been bearish for weeks and months and we are looking to get short to take advantage of these bearish winds. We will look in the resistance zone between 1.6050-1.61 for bearish confirmation signals, especially on 4h charts, with targets from 1.6050 shorts at 1.6025, 6000, 5970 and 5940. Aggressive short on a a sustained break below rising trend support too (bottom yellow line on chart above and) and aggressive long on a bounce / bullish signal off of that rising trend support.
June 24 @ 5:38 UTC - all targets have been hit on our open shorts for good pips and we are now flat for the weekend. All and all we are very bearish on this pair right now and when we resume trading Monday we will be looking to short rallies, especially to 1.6100 with targets at 1.6070, 6040, 6010 and 5980 for 120 pips potential. We will also be looking for opportunities to get short on profitable CP bearish signals (4h preferred).
June 23 @ 6:36 UTC - Our long got 50 pips in the profit and then reversed and hit our tightened stop for +25 pips profit on each lot. We are now short on at 1.6130 and this one appears to be moving much faster in the right direction as we have already closed out one lot for 100 pips profit and have one lot open for +80 right now. 6130 was where rising trend support that we have been watching all week was (see chart above with the original trade setups) that we followed. All and all the pair played out nearly exactly as we anticipated; for those looking to enter today we would be looking for opportunities to short on rallies, especially with solid CP bearish signals to confirm, with targets back down to 1.60. We are leaving up Monday’s chart which shows the trade setups we are still following :)
June 22 @ 6:43 UTC - Our long from 6204 is still about 50 pips in the profit and still open. We have open targets at 6300 and 6350 by weeks end and for traders looking to enter the markets we would look to do so on bullish CP signals on any dips, especially to 1.6180-6200. Leaving Monday’s chart open to show our entry pattern.
June 21 @ 6:14 UTC - We got a sustained break to the topside of 6200 at 6204 (very close!) and entered into our aggressive long, which has gotten up to 50 pips in the profit so far. The long is still open and, as we mentioned yesterday, targeting 6300 and 6350 in the coming days. In general we are now bullish for those looking to enter the markets, however watch for a beak below 6150 to open up further downside risk.
June 20 @ 7:34 UTC - the pair is forming a small wedge on the 1h charts and we will look for opportunties to get short under 1.61 on a sustained break or break and bearish CP confirmation. There is an opportunity for an aggressive long on a sustained break above 1.6200 as well with a further rise to 1.6300 and 6350 expected.
June 17 @ 6:03 UTC - No good rallies yesterday meant no good entry points for us and we are flat before the weekend. Yesterday’s trade plan still holds true for any aggressive traders looking to enter markets today: “We are now flat again but looking for opportunities to get long on rallies to 1.6200 or any really good looking consolidation + bearish CP signals with targets all the way down to 1.6050.”
June 16th @ 8:04 UTC - we almost didn’t enter our short when the 1h candle closed at 1.6300 – even though the trade plan called for a short on a sustained break below 1.6340 – because it seemed so far from our pivot that it was doomed for a correction. Well as always we followed the plan and were pleasantly rewarded when the pair dropped an additional 150 pips from 1.6300. We are now flat again but looking for opportunities to get long on rallies to 1.6200 or any really good looking consolidation + bearish CP signals with targets all the way down to 1.6050.
Jun 15th @ 4:47 UTC - we ignored our own trading plan on Monday and ended up taking this trade on the chin. We were looking to get short below 1.6300 and long above 1.6300. Well, we had a very bearish looking shooting star close above 1.6300 that we couldn’t pass up even though our plan called for a long. We are willing to live with the loss though – for regular followers of PRO analysis you know that good CP signals end up leading the way better than any trade plan. For today we are watching as the pair flirts with falling trend resistance at 1.6415. This is a key level as a sustained break above would open up a re-challenge of 1.6500 and even 1.6700 in the coming weeks. We will look for opportunities to get short below 6415 and long above 6415.We will also look to get short on a sustained break below 1.6340 as an aggressive breakout trade for a re-challenge of 1.6300 and 1.6250.
June 13 @ 10:07 UTC - We are moving our key pivot down to 1.6300 even though we are still overall bearish on this pair. We will look to get short around 1.6300 with good CP confirmation and targets at 1.6275, 6250, 6220 and 6190. On a sustained break above 1.6300 then we will look for 1.6325, 6350, 6380 and 6410.
June 10 @ 7:33 UTC - We got a solid 4h signal from Wednesday’s analysis when there was a 3 Inside Up with a 2.81 profit factor on the 4h charts right on top of our support line at 6360. We rode it up for 65 pips per lot before closing out. We are flat before the weekend but would look for opportunities to get short on smaller timeframe charts if we were trading today.
June 8 @ 9:23 UTC - Pair fell back into its wedge yesterday and is currently consolidating on top of its rising trend support line now. Our key pivot for this level is 1.6360 – we will look to get short on a break below this level or long on a decent candlestick above it targeting another run up to 1.6460.
June 7 @ 9:03 UTC - GU bounced perfectly within the consolidation wedge we charted yesterday dropping 100 pips from resistance to support and then rising another 100 pips to break above resistance. We are currently looking for, and very close to, getting in on yesterday’s top side breakout trade: “On a sustained break above 1.6450 we will target a rise to 1.6550 resistance for 100 pips”. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
June 6 @ 9:31 UTC - GU is currently consolidating in a tight wedge between 1.6550-1.6300. It has just bounced off the top of this wedge and, while our bias is bullish, we will look to trade a breakout on either side of this wedge. On a sustained break above 1.6450 we will target a rise to 1.6550 resistance for 100 pips, and on a downside breakout of 1.6300 we will target a fall to 1.6200 for 100 pips as well.
June 3 @ 8:00 UTC - we got a nice rise and drop from our resistance zone yesterday but no CandlePRO confirmation on the 4h charts so we stayed flat and will remain flat before the weekend. For any aggressive traders, or for our early trading next week our bias is bearish at the moment after an ugly head and shoulder formed a few days ago, with resistance at 1.6400 providing the nicest entry zone in our opinion.
June 2 @ 6:04 UTC - all targets were hit on our short for +100 pips and we are now flat. Our bias is still bearish and we will look to re-enter on this pair on a rally around 1.6400 on bearish CP confirmation signals, targeting a re-challenge of 1.6340 and 6300 for another 100 pips.
June 1 @ 9:12 UTC - we shorted this one on the sustained break below 1.6450 and started to get nervous as it turned upward but are now about 40 pips in the profit and have a not-so-pretty head and shoulders on the 4h charts now. We are keeping our short open for yesterday’s targets: 6425, 6400, 6370 and 6340 for 110 pips profit. We will leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
May 31 @ 10:34 UTC - 1.6450 is our key support entering the week. This pair is a bit mixed technically with no clear indication either way, but it has broken major resistance several times over the past few weeks (though has met with heavier resistance the past few days). We will look to get long with bullish signals above 1.6450 with targets at 1.6475, 6500, 6530 and 6560, and short below 6450 with targets at 6425, 6400, 6370 and 6340 for 110 pips profit.
May 26 @ 8:29 UTC - no short signals around 1.6180 yesterday so no shorts taken. The pair has busted out of its short-term bearish channel and the short-term sentiment has turned bearish. There is an opportunity for longs (very aggressive) near current price (1.6280) with some smaller timeframe bullish CP signals, targeting a run at 1.6325 and eventually 1.6425. A more conservative long can be found on a dip to 1.6180 support with targets back up to 1.6280.
May 25 @ 9:25 UTC - we didn’t take any longs yesterday (though there was a 100 pips rise from our aggressive long spot) and we are currently looking for a short in the vicinity of 1.6180 (around current price) with targets at 1.6155, 6125, 6100 and 6070 for 110 pips potential.
May 24 @ 8:59 UTC - we saw a downside breakout to our wedge last week and now are looking to sell on rallies as our primary strategy to take advantage of the downtrend. However the pair is at the bottom of its channel as you can see from the above chart so a more likely trade scenario for today would be longs in the vicinity of 1.6100 support or even 1.6050 support, with upside targets to the top the channel around 1.6180.
May 20 @ 6:44 UTC - we closed the remainder of our short out on this pair for a small profit, after booking half for +50 pips the previous day, as the pair rallied and managed to break above the 1.62 resistance level. 1.6250 is key resistance on the 1h charts right now, and a break above opens up a re-challenge to 1.6300 and 1.6360, while a failure opens up a re-challenge of rising trend support at 1.6165 (where there is an aggressive long to be found). We are sidelined in the thin Friday trading.
May 19 @ 8:52 UTC - We finally got an entry we liked with a 1h sustained break below 1.6200 (yesterday’s last trade setup) as the pair broke its rising trend support line and continued to fall for nearly 100 pips. We booked 50 of that so far with a short still open from 1.6180 targeting another stab at 1.6100 and a SL just above 1.6200, so that if it were hit we would still be net positive on the trade. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for. For those still looking to enter our preferred strategy would continue to be getting short on rallies to 1.6180-6200 with targets down to 1.6100.
May 18 @ 8:38 UTC - we never did get the entry we were hoping for yesterday and now the pair has fallen back down to rising trend support around 1.6200. Technically this appears to be bearish consolidation pattern with an eventual downside breakout the most likely scenario, but until that happens our short-term trades will be to buy on dips to the rising trend support (bottom black line on chart above) with bullish smaller timeframe signals. The primary trade will be to get short around 1.6300 with good bearish confirmation, targeting a re-challenge of 1.62 and 1.6150. There is also a short setup on a break below 1.6200 with targets down to 1.61.
May 17 @ 9:33 UTC - we did see our topside break to 1.6250 as the UK inflation data came in higher than expected leading traders to bet on a rise on GU interest rates sooner than expected to help flight the inflation. The break was too quick for us to get a decent reward/risk on (we waited for a sustained break) so we are currently flat, but will look to get long on a pullback and bullish CP confirmation targeting a re-challenge of 1.6360 and 1.6400 over the coming days. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
May 16 @ 8:39 UTC - last Friday we left you with “we would only be considering shorts if we were trading today” – which turned out to be very true to those who traded the PRO analysis to the tune of a 150 pip drop. The pair is currently very bearish technically, if a bit oversold, and we will look to continue taking advantage of this bear trend with a short-term aggressive short at 1.6250 support zone with CP confirmation and targets at 1.6225, 6200, 6170 and 6140 for 110 pips. On a topside break of 6250 we will look for another short-entry around 1.6300 with CP confirmation with targets down to 1.6180 for 120 pips.
May 13 @ 6:54 UTC - we took yesterday’s short on a 1h sustained break below 1.6300 at 1.6284 – which was 10 pips below the previous close on May 9th. It dropped for about 50 pips so far and we shaved off about 30 pips of that for ourselves. We are flat heading into the weekend now, but after the bearish moves of this week and last, plus the bearish break yesterday, we would only be considering shorts if we were trading today. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
May 12 @ 8:21 UTC - the pair is still flirting with 1.6300, where we will look to get short on a sustained break below (yesterday’s primary): “We are still bearish and, after being tested twice over several days, we are looking to get short under 1.6300 on a sustained break. Targets at 1.6270, 6240, 6210 and 6180. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long (e.g. scalping) near 6300 but we see bullish follow-through as very limited following the market’s big sell-off.”
May 11 @ 17:58 UTC - Volatility kicked a lot of short-term traders out of their shorts – and then out of their longs – as the pair rose 150 pips in just a few short hours and fell the same amount in the same amount of time. We are still bearish and, after being tested twice over several days, we are looking to get short under 1.6300 on a sustained break. Targets at 1.6270, 6240, 6210 and 6180. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long (e.g. scalping) near 6300 but we see bullish follow-through as very limited following the market’s big sell-off.
May 10 @ 9:30 UTC - 1.6450 is still a key pivot, but the pair has shown more bearish strength that we anticipated and did not rise much at all yesterday. While our primary is still a short near the neckline of 6450 with confirmation (targets are at 6425, 6400, 6370 and 6340 for 110 pips potential) we are adding an aggressive pivot at 1.6400. We will look for short CP signals below 1.6400 with targets down to 1.6300 in this setup. We will not look for longs above because 1.6450 looms large and ruins the reward/risk ratio of any trade we would attempt.
May 9 @ 7:54 UTC - this pair performed very well last week as we shorted it at the right time along with EU. While we sat out last Friday those of you who shorted the neckline (our primary if we had been trading) were greeted with more pips before week’s end. To start this week we will use the neckline at 1.6450 as our key pivot: we will look to get short on good CP signals below 6450 and get long on a sustained break above. From 6450 our targets are at 6425, 6400, 6370 and 6340 for 110 pips potential.
May 6 @ 8:32 UTC - *We are not trading today because of Friday-volatility and NFP event risk*. Our short from yesterday hit pay dirt along with our EU short putting some nice pips in our pocket for the weekend. With most major support lines that we’ve been watching smashed, if we were trading our preferred strategy would be to get short on rallies to 1.6400-6430 resistance, but the conservative strategy is to stand aside today. Next major daily support is 1.6250.
May 5 @ 6:54 UTC - we are short from 6520 after a wicked looking shooting star in CP, with a solid profit factor. Our trade got about +30 (we booked 1 lot at +25) but is currently into the red as the pair has rallied a bit. We are targeting 6495 (already hit), 6470, 6440 and 6410 for 110 pips profit. If we weren’t in a trade then we would still be looking for yesterday’s trade setup: “We will look to get short under 1.6600 with targets at 1.6570, 6540, 6510 and 6480. If we see a dip before a rise then 1.6400-1.6425 is key support and we will look to get long there in anticipation of a rise to 1.6600 to fulfill the head and shoulders.” We are leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
May 4 @ 7:42 UTC - we just missed our entry on this pair yesterday as it closed at 1.6580 – 5 pips above our trigger support (on a sustained break) at 1.6575. We missed out on 100 pips because of it but, as we always say: it is better to miss out then miss your equity. Today we notice that we have a potential head and shoulders forming on the 4h charts. 1.6600 is where the second shoulder should be and this is where we will find our key pivot for the day. We will look to get short under 1.6600 with targets at 1.6570, 6540, 6510 and 6480. If we see a dip before a rise then 1.6400-1.6425 is key support and we will look to get long there in anticipation of a rise to 1.6600 to fulfill the head and shoulders.
May 3 @ 7:40 UTC - GU is currently at a key rising trend support level around 1.6600 (it has actually just begun to break below it and is down to 1.6575 at the time of this writing). 1.6575 is our key pivot – on a sustained break below we will get short, and on a failure to sustain below this level we will look to get long. On a short our targets are 1.6550, 6520, 6490 and 6460. Long targets at 1.6600, 6630, 6660 and 6690.
April 29 @ 6:59 UTC - GU almost dipped down to our support at 1.6600 yesterday but turned up just a bit before hand and did not kick up a very strong CP signal to prompt us to enter higher up. The pair then has more or less consolidated between 6625-6650 for the past 12 hours. This has led to a potential breakout correction scenario with 1.6600 as the support and a sustained breakout below leading to 1.6520. Despite it being Friday if we can get a good enough price on this trade setup we will look to enter. The longer-term trend is the to upside, and the conservative trade would be to wait for a dip to 6520 to enter long with targets back up to 1.6750.
April 28 @ 7:06 UTC - The one pair we did trade yesterday as per the analysis yielded a healthy +150 pips (more if you stayed in longer). We did indeed have a 4h candle close above 6520 and then provide a bit of a pullback for us to enter long on. Today we are looking for more of the same – long on dips. with 1.6600 with confirmation the first support area we will watch. Targets at 1.6625, 6655, 6685 and 6710 for 110 pips potential. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
April 27 @ 8:32 UTC - markets flirted with our 1.6520 resistance for much of yesterday before finally piercing it on the 01:00 candle earlier this morning and then closing back below (false breakout). We took that as a bearish signal that the falling trend resistance we were tracking was still intact and entered short which proved to be good for +75 pips. Price has risen quite a bit since our chart snapshot even 15 minutes ago (price is now at 6520 at the time of writing) and we will look to get long on a close above 6520 on the 1h charts. Targets at 6545, 6575, 6605 and 6635. If price closes above 6545 then we will wait for a pullback to get a better RR. As with the other pairs we will give a wide-birth to the FOMC announcements to avoid getting whipped out of our trade.
Update: GDP came in at 0.5% growth (expectation) and is the cause of the recent bullishness - http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192
April 26 @ 8:07 UTC - The pair is currently in a bearish channel on the short-term charts, though the medium-term outlook is bullish. We are looking to get long on a sustained break above 1.6520 on the 4h charts. If the sustained break is further away than 6540 then we will wait to buy on a pullback. Long targets at 6545, 6575, 6600 and 6630. There exists an opportunity for an aggressive short around current price (6515) with confirmation (assuming we see no break to the upside).
April 25 @ 8:32 UTC - Pair is still very bullish but appears to have lost a bit of steam from last week. Hard to tell if the 1h consolidation is valid or fool’s gold as it mostly occurred during last week’s Friday think markets. Either way we are treating 1.6480 as solid support and will look to get short on a sustained break below, or take a long around current price level (1.6520) with good CP signal as the pair appears to bounce off of rising trend support on the 1h and 4h charts.
April 21 @ 7:23 UTC - our aggressive long yesterday was good for another +100 pips. We were originally looking for a short on a sustained break below 1.6320 – luckily that never came and instead we had a sustained break above 6360 to trigger our aggressive long. Whether you entered on that 1h sustained break or waited for the 08:00 candle and its false breakout below 6320 the pair climbed quickly shortly afterword. Today we are closely watching the rising trend support (which also currently corresponds nicely with the 10-EMA on 4h charts) – shown as the black line on your charts above. With this support intact we will continue to look to buy bounces off of it (support currently at 1.6400) with a sustained break below 1.64 causing us to begin looking for shorts. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long around 1.6450 with confirmation.
April 20th @ 6:14 UTC - We are right at the resistance zone we were watching yesterday so we are zooming in to the 1h chart above to take a closer look at some possible entry points. First off we haven’t seen any great 1h/4h bearish confirmation signals and the price action has not given any indications that it is turning quite yet so that is why we are still flat – no need to stand in front of a freight train. We are waiting for a good sustained break below 1.6320 or some solid bearish signals for confirmation to get short around these levels. There is also an aggressive opportunity to get long on a 1h break above 1.6360 or on a dip and bounce off of 1.63 support.
April 19th @9:46 UTC - there was opportunity to make profit in both directions yesterday as the volatility made the pair whiplash but we stayed on the sideline as our EUR/USD trade was running strong. 1.6350 is now the key resistance on our charts and we will look to re-establish a short here with a good CP signal – or go long with a close above 1.6360 on 4h charts.
April 18th @ 7:57 UTC - We stayed flat at the end of last week as our pivot came and when amid a flurry of inconclusive/contradictory candlestick signals. Actually we showed have listened to CandlePRO for more trades – most of the decent signals, though they didn’t correspond to our pivot, still produced between 40-80 pips at a time. For today the bulls are showing weakness again with 6250 being a key pivot – a close below this level on the 4h charts is a bearish signal and we will look to get short there. Otherwise there is an opportunity for an aggressive short on a rise to 1.6330.
April 13 @4:47 UTC - We are still flat as no signal or candlestick looked appealing enough to enter in either direction. Given the volatility in the pair the prudent things to do seemed to be to let the price action play out a little bit and give us some more direction. We’re not entirely convinced that the direction is there now, but bears definitely showed some staying power yesterday as the price settled and is consolidating in the 1.6275-1.6235 range. We think the most likely technical move in the pair is currently to the downside and still view 1.6275 as a key short-term pivot: we will look for a good candlestick signal to get short under this level (around current price) and will remain flat above (an aggressive move would be to get long on a sustained break above for a re-challenge of 1.6350). Our short will target 1.6180 by week’s end.
April 12 @ 9:03 UTC - we took a short on the sustained 1h break to the underside of our wedge at 1.6320. Our stop was relatively tight and got hit unfortunately, otherwise we would be well into the profit right now. Actually we should have followed CP signals more closely – they were right to the tune of 70-90 pips for most of the day on the 1h charts. Right now we are seeing a major bearish downleg – again forecasted by CP 4h signals – and will look to get short on a rise to 6275 (aggressive) or 6340 with confirmation.
April 11 @ 4:26 UTC - As stated on Friday we were flat heading into the weekend with no plans to change that. Today, Monday morning, we can see that the pair is has been consolidating around 1.6360 in a bullish triangle wedge pattern. While we would take either direction on a sustained break out our preferred direction is an upside breakout which, at this point, would mean a sustained break of 1.6400 to the upside. We will also look for a strong 1h signal or above along the bottom rising trend support line (bottom red line) for a bullish bounce to the top of the wedge.
April 8 @ 7:57 UTC - we are flat on this pair heading into the weekend, but for those brave souls will to brave it 1.6360 and 1.6400 are our key pivots on the day. The chart above was drawn with arrows at 1.6360 as that will become the key pivot if we see a sustained break to the upside of 1.6400. So, to reiterate: 1.6400 is our key pivot on the day so we are bullish above and looking for bear signals below. If we see a sustained break of this level then 1.6360 then becomes the key pivot. 1.6360 will also offer good opportunities to get long from but we remain flat into the weekend.
April 6 @ 8:29 UTC - our second lot got taken out at -30 so we ended up with 0 pips on this pair. We will take a zero trade any day. Pulling a stop-and-reverse above 1.6180 would have netted +70 pips so far, as the pair is now hovering just below 1.6350 resistance. 6350 is our key pivot on the day as we will look t get bearish below it and look for opportunities to get long above it.
April 5 @ 7:22 UTC - closed one lot of our short for +30 pips with the rest running for a -20 loss at the moment. We see 1.6180 as the key resistance and will look to remain short below this level. Daily bearish signals adds to our confidence but the lack of bearish follow through is concerning and we will look to tighten our SL shortly.
April 4 @ 8:49 UTC - we just got a 4h shooting start closed at 04:00 that had very good backtesting results, and the wick just pierced our resistance line drawn above (leaving last week’s chart up to show what we were looking for). Targeting 1.61, 6050 and 5970.
April 1 @ 6:11 UTC - The pair appears to be turning up a bit above 1.5900 after the large drop we captured last week. We do see short-term resistance around 1.6100-1.6130 and will look to short below this level and long above this level – next week. We are flat heading into the weekend.
Mar 31 @ 7:36 UTC - We did get stopped out on a small GU short yesterday that we probably should not have entered. The 4h CP signal under 1.61 was a very weak hanging man (only 1 past signal) followed by a false break above 1.6100. We are currently flat but right our our new key pivot level – 1.6150. We would like a right shoulder to appear (which would bring price down to 1.6090) for any break above 1.6140-50 to have meaning (inverse head and shoulders). To sum it up – we are bearish below 1.6150 and bullish above. A short around current levels on good CP confirmation is a valid, aggressive trade but watch 1.6090-1.61 for support and a potential long opportunity.
Mar 29 @ 6:36 UTC - flat yesterday on not much movement yesterday as markets stalled. 1.61 is now our key pivot and we will look to get short on some CP signals around this level. There is also a short term opportunity to get long on a sustained break above 1.6040 with targets to 1.61.
Mar 28 @ 7:52 UTC - Our GU analysis hit the nail square on the head last week with the predicted drop for 250 pips. The pair is at support now around 1.60-1.5980 and this could provide a little bit of a bounce to the pair and a chance to get in short again. Ultimately we expect the pair to challenge 1.5750 as our weekly target and will be looking for good 4h CP signals to get short on (during rallies).
Mar 25 @ 8:51 UTC - flat for the weekend.. all targets hit on our short for 250 pips :). We hope for this pair to be just as profitable next week!
Mar 24 @ 7:28 UTC - Great short taken late Tuesday as we approached 1.6400 (our resistance zone we were looking to sell) and got three 1h bearish signals in a row: 18:00 Hanging Man (DOUBLE), 19:00 Bearish Engulfing (TRIPLE) and 20:00 Three Outside Down (DOUBLE). If that is not a show of resistance then we don’t know what is :). The pair has dropped 150 pips since then and continues to fall and we ultimately target 1.6100 for 250 pips with our SL at 100 pips locked in. 1.6200 (right around current price) is strong support though and could provide a bounce. On failure we will cover our profits and look for short-term long opps and wait for another break below 1.6200 to get short on again. Leaving Tuesday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
Mar 22 @ 8:51 UTC - the technicals of this pair are still a bit thrown off from the theatrics of last week but it is clear that we’ve seen some very strong bullish intentions over the past 72 hours. While short-term traders may look in the bullish direction to surf the trend a correction is needed and 1.6400 will provide a convenient location to do so – all the shorts have been covered and there is now room to fall.
Mar 17 @ 5:54 UTC - There were plenty of bearish signals yesterday that would have turned a nice profit but we stayed flat, full on pips from EURUSD. Our trading setups remain unchanged – looking to get short on a rally to the 6170 resistance area but we will not also loon in the 6100-6130 area for an aggressive short with confirmation.
Mar 16 @ 7:42 UTC - Took a long position on a decent candlestick signal around 1.6120 but got stopped out for a small 30 pip loss. We are dropping back to the daily chart for a better perspective on this pair and, as you can see, the pair has broken to the downside out of a strong bullish channel. This gives the price action a bearish tint for the coming days and we will look to short a rally to the underside of former trend support around 6170-6200.
Mar 14 @ 17:39 UTC - Our long from last week was stopped out at break even. We are looking to re-establish a long near 1.6120-6150 support on a good CP signal.
Mar 10 @ 7:22 UTC - still long from 6150, about 20 pips in profit. It got up to 60 pips in the profit yesterday. Tightening the stop a bit to minimize potential loss.
Mar 9 @ 8:10 UTC - single lot long from 1.6150 (bottom of channel) after two bullish dojis (not particluarly profitable in backtesting) and a Three Inside Up (very profitable) in 3 candles on 4h charts yesterday. Looking for 90 pips with stop below channel bottom. Single lot because we already have an anti-dollar trade open with AU. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
Mar 8, 2011 @ 8:46 UTC - pair continues to bounce hard off of the upper channel resistance that we have been watching for the better part of a couple weeks. We will look for an opportunity to buy near the bottom of channel around 1.61-1.6130.
Mar 4, 2011 @ 8:18 UTC - as mentioned we left our short open from earlier this week and got stopped out at BE after going 60 pips in the profit. We are flat for the moment and will look to re-enter next week. Pair is currently bouncing off the top of its bearish channel. We will leave our chart up from earlier this week to show what we were looking for.
Mar 2, 2011 @ 8:21 UTC – ask and you shall receive! We got a strong GU shooting star on the 4h charts at 08:00 yesterday that has been good for about 50 pips so far and is still open. We are currently short with a target around 6160 for an additional 60 pips. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for and the alternative trade setups.
Mar 1, 2011 @ 4:54 UTC - well we never saw a move down to complete the “a” wave we were looking for on Feb 25 but no trade was entered so no harm, no foul. The pair is resting just under the belly of 1.6300 currently and, while we would take a short on a solid 1h or above CP signal, we are primarily looking for longs near the bottom of the bullish channel shown above, around 1.6100 for another re-challenge to the top of the channel around 1.6300.
Feb 25 @ 8:12 UTC - closed our short from Feb 22 for a small profit shortly after opening for a small profit and have been flat since. The pair almost had a sustained break of our rising trend support line (bottom black line on our chart above) yesterday but the pair pulled back in time. The pair does appear to be losing steam with a possible 5-wave count in place from 1.4550 to 1.6270 (where we have strong resistance from late 2010). If this is the case then an A wave would take use down to at least the 1.60 region over the coming week and makes shorts from this area particularly appealing.
Feb 22 @ 7:54 UTC - got a STRONG CP sell signal that is now about ~80 pips in the profit: yesterday’s close was a bearish engulfing on the Daily charts, with a backtest result of 3.32 (HIGH), a median RR of 3.1 (HIGH) and an average RR of 4:1 (HIGH). We will stay short and watch the 1.61 level closely as a close below is necessary to really open up a downside correction. Weekly target is 1.60 and 1.59. We are leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we are looking for.
Feb 21 @ 9:12 UTC - GU buying has reached a feverish pitch and we are rapidly approaching 1.6300, a strong daily and weekly resistance level for the #$ pair. We expect to see some selling pressure, long-covering in this are that will offer scalpers and plenty of short-term opportunities to get short. We will be watching for good signals to get short on from any rallies
Feb 17 @ 9:00 UTC - got stopped out on our GU trade. Flat for now until a better trend appears – lots of whiplash at the moment, which does offer opportunities for short-term traders to sell high and buy low around the edges.
Feb 16 @ 8:28 UTC - just took a decent decent 1h hanging man double around 1.6170 (07:00 1h) – backtesting looks solid and the pair has made a nice rally so it is a correction trade. It also offers a nice hedge against our UJ trade (GU short = dollar bullish, UJ short = dollar bearish). Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
Feb 15 @ 9:09 UTC - flat currently but looking to re-establish a short on a good 4h or 1h CP signal (solid backtesting results) near 1.6100 for a challenge of 1.5950 (150 pips).
Feb 10 @ 7:06 UTC - Still flat here. There were some bullish signals near the rising trend support around 1.6050 but nothing compelling enough to risk equity on. Chart above shows to aggressive options. Short term outlook is bullish above the rising trend support and bearish below.
Feb 9 @ 9:12 UTC - Aggressive trade from yesterday’s analysis triggered (“Finally on the 1h and 30m charts we are tracking a very aggressive rising trend support (connect the Jan 31st lows with the Feb 4th lows) which puts current short-term support around 1.6100 – a breach below this levels opens up the fall to the 5980 support we are watching from the conservative trade above for 120 pips profit.“) on the break below rising support. Trade got up to 70 pips in the profit and we are flat again, awaiting opportunities to buy on dips to the support lines mentioned on Feb 8 (conservative trades), or rallies to fade on good CP signals. We’ll leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were watching for.
Feb 8 @ 7:18 UTC - GU has been very volatile the past week or so, meaning there has been lots of whiplash up and down buying high and selling low has been a consistently good strategy. As such the most conservative setup is a long on a dip to the 1.5980 support area (about 170 pips away from current price action). Ideally we would see a sharp move downward, as we have sen on the past month’s dips – almost all of which led to profitable long positions. A long from the 1.5980 would target a re-challenge of 1.6200 for 220 pips profit. Finally on the 1h and 30m charts we are tracking a very aggressive rising trend support (connect the Jan 31st lows with the Feb 4th lows) which puts current short-term support around 1.6100 – a breach below this levels opens up the fall to the 5980 support we are watching from the conservative trade above for 120 pips profit.
Feb 4 @ 8:15 UTC - good thing we stayed flat on Feb 2′s signal – pair did finally see a bit of a retracement. We’ll look to establish a new long early next week. Stay tuned.
Feb 2 @ 8:36 UTC - GU smashed through our 5950-5975 resistance with no CP confirmation so no trade was entered. If we had stuck around a little longer then we could have longed on the stop-and-reverse breakout trade above 1.5980 resistance (but we had a snow to dig ourselves out of). We don’t feel comfortable buying at these current overbought levels, nor do we like selling when bulls have just showed this much strength. We will wait for a dip to former resistance (now support) to continue buying, or for some serious consolidation to buy on. GU has also been following a short-term bullish step pattern (see arrows and resistance/support on chart above) – if it continues it should give off plenty more profitable buy signals. Flat for now.
Jan 31st @ 9:18 UTC - We cleaned up last week with the GU and we will look to keep it going with plenty of trade setups detailed on the chart above: the obvious setup that we have been milking is the short around the falling trend resistance with CP confirmation. That resistance line is currently around 5950-5975. However, in the short-term, as long as we stay above 5815 then we will be short-term bullish for another re-challenge of the 5950 resistance region. If 5815 is broken to the downside then it opens up another re-challenge of 5750 and 5715 very quickly.
Jan 28th @ 5:16 UTC - Trend trading paid off again here: the bounce off our falling trend resistance produced ~60 pips per lot and there were good 1h signals to confirm. First at 13:00 we had a bearish doji DOUBLE that got up to 67 pips. Then at 15:00 we had a bearish engulfing that netted up to 60 pips. Both of these signals were 100/100 forecast strength. Finally at 16:00 we had a Three Outside Down that got up to 57 pips. The forecast strength was 0/100 on this one but was just confirmation on top of the previous engulfing and resistance bounce.
Since resistance held the setups we are watching remain the same: look for bearish signals to sell around resistance (shown on chart above) and stop-and-reverse above resistance. Because it is Friday all trades should be looked at as riskier than usual. We will leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for (resistance lines still valid).
Jan 27th @ 7:44 UTC - Pair has gone beserk ever since it broke to the downside of the channel we were watching last week. Hopefully you got short and heavy – the dropped 150 pips, came back up and then dropped 250 pips. Not bad. It is currently bouncing back up and it leaves us to wonder if a downward trend line isn’t forming by connecting the Jan 19th high with the Jan 25th high, which would put current support around 1.5990 and give us another opportunity to sell. A sustained break above would kill the trade and be a bullish signal.
Jan 25th @ 6:50a UTC - short from yesterday got +70 into the profit before reversing and hitting our BE (break-even) stop-loss. Flat for now.
Jan 24th @ 8:15a UTC - BIG dip put the the short from Jan 19th/20th well into the profit zone at ~150 pips maximum, though we didn’t capture all that because the TP at 1.5800 was never hit and instead hit the tightened SL (still for good profit). Price has since returned for a re-challenge of 1.60 and we have taken a single lot short at 1.5990 at the open of this market as a pure reward/risk trade (our SL is hidden behind 1.6050 resistance and the TP is down around 1.5800 for another 190-pip re-challenge. This is all after the bearish break of the rising bullish channel from last week. We will leave last week’s chart up to show what we were looking at for the trades.
Jan 20 @ 8:50a UTC - Short triggered yesterday on the break of rising trend support (we will leave yesterday’s chart above for today to show what we were looking at) as the 1h limped through the support and gave a solid close below around 1.5990. First lot close for +35 and second lot remains open with a SL above 1.60, targeting another run at 1.58 for 190 pips profit. 1.5920 is providing strong support, however, and we may look to close (or at least tighten the SL to BE to lock in profit) on another failure here. Trade got up to +80 in the profit before correcting a bit to the 5970 area where price currently is.
Jan 19 @ 8:55a UTC - Pound/Dollar has been in a STRONG uptrend since early January, as you can see on the chart above. This uptrend has produced a nice bullish channel, with plenty of buying opps at the bottom of the channel, after a flagpole and consolidation, and also on the 30 EMA (1h). While these strategies may continue to work for short-term traders (going long near the bottom of the bullish channel) a correction is overdue for the pair and there is a longer-term opportunity to short on a sustained break below the channel bottom. We will watch the 1h charts for this break, and also will watch the top of the channel with CP signals to get a great entry price. For the primary trade (short below rising trend support), we are targeting a re-challenge of 1.5800 so there is plenty of room for profit.
NOTE: Due to the server restore we had to do the posts between Jan 9th-Jan 19th are lost forever :( – unless a diligent PipHutter copied them down somewhere!
Jan 7 @ 7:25a UTC - We saw the anticipated drop, which was preceded by a number of bearish 30m and 1h candlesticks from 09:00 on, at least 5 of which were +100 on the 10-candle strategy results by our count. Price is currently re-challenging 1.5400. Given the news volatility today we will wait until Monday for higher-probability setups and calmer markets where technical analysis generally works better.
Jan 5 @ 8:36a UTC - GBP/USD is approaching strong 4h/daily falling trend resistance (connect Nov 5 and Dec 13 highs) that we will look for good CP signals to short around. GBP/USD has a tendency to pierce its support/resistance lines so keep that in mind for any stop-losses or entries you are looking for in this region. Key resistance is between 1.5620-1.5650 and this is the area we are looking for shorts in with targets down to a re-challenge of 1.5459 for 200 pips.
Jan 3 2011 - Happy New Year! Bank Holidays in numerous countries today (UK, Australia, Japan, some French banks, etc) so no PRO analysis – markets are too thin for any good analysis/trading in our opinion. CandlePRO will continue to turn out signals, as always, and you can view all bank holidays here. We look forward to an exciting and pip-filled new year with you!
Dec 20-24th - No PRO analysis this week due to holidays and illiquid markets, but CandlePRO will continue to function as normal! When markets have this low of volume (due to traders being gone for the rest of the year) then markets tend to behave in strange ways and are difficult to predict in the short-term. If you do choose to trade we recommend you trade even more conservatively than normal! In general we are bullish on the USD as risk-aversion continues to be the dominant theme. Keep an eye on your emails for the new PRO Scoreboard feature and we’ll see you in 2011! – PipHut
Dec 16th @ 6:58a UTC - As expected the pair did turn down (see Dec 13th analysis) and we got a great CandlePRO signal to confirm the entry – a STRONG daily bearish engulfing from Tuesday. The average RR was 3:1 and the median RR was 3.3:1 (a good sign when the median RR is higher than the average RR). Take a look at the performance report here. Yesterday quickly produced 200+ pips from that short alone. Currently flat and see no immediate setups, though bears definitely seem to be gaining strength and we expect more USD strength and GBP weakness (GBPUSD weakness).
Dec 13th @ 7:34a UTC - close out the long at break even on Friday as the pair continues to consolidate. Technical setups are not that strong at the moment so I will stay on the sideline of this pair for now, but it certainly appears that the pair is turning down so short-term traders might look for short-term bearish opportunities (but this is a more aggressive trade).
Dec 9 @ 8:40a UTC - short was stopped out for -50 and then a stop-and-reverse long as the pair broke above the falling resistance is now +50 in profit. Leaving the long open for a challenge of 1.59 at least, maybe 1.60. Also I’m leaving Monday’s chart up to show the trading setup we were looking at.
Dec 7 @ 7:01a UTC - second target hit at 1.5665 and then trailing stop hit at 5685 for +50 pips. The falling trend resistance line is still be respected, though, so I will look to short around the current level on a good CP bearish signal. 30m is the min timeframe I will look for CP signals, and a 30m signal would have to be close to resistance (1.5775 currently) and at least a solid double. Targets from 5775 at 5755, 5745, 5715, 5680 and 5645 for 130 pips. A sustained break above 5775 is a bullish signal and I will look to exit any shorts and go long if that happens.
Dec 6 @ 10:09a UTC - single lot short taken from 1.5739 on a strong CandlePRO 4h TRIPLE at 04:00 UTC (Dec 6) that occurred just below our falling trend resistance line drawn above. This trade is still active so you can re-enter on another CP signal around this level if we get a retrace. Targets at 1.5705 (first target hit), 1.5665, 1.5610 and 1.5560. 1.58 is my key short-term pivot – above this level I am bullish and below I am bearish.
December 1 @ 8:58a UTC - still flat. Conservative short is still at 1.5800 near falling trend resistance and 38.2% retracement. Aggressive short is at 1.57 and 23.6% retracement. Both target a re-challenge of 1.55 in the coming weeks.
November 29th @ 8:02a UTC: Our last downside target was before the weekend at 1.5650 for a total of +220 on that last lot. Add that to the +200 on the previous to trades and subtract -80 for the two losses and we netted 340+ pips on this pair last week – not bad. I am still bullish on the USD and I will patiently wait for a good opportunity to sell the GBP/USD – there is no reason to jump back into a trade just yet and risk our hard earned equity. The nearest resistance I will look for a short pullback to is 1.5730 (23.6% retracement of latest drop) or 1.5800 (potential falling trend resistance). We are currently flat in the pair.
November 26th @ 7:09a UTC: Stopped out of the risk/reward long (-35 pips – trade below) but the stop-and-reverse short (“Stop is tight below 1.59 and I will look to short below this level for a challenge at 1.5850 and 5800″) netted another quick 100 pips with one lot still open for +170 pips. Profit is locked in on this trade with a stop at 1.5750. I expect further GBP/USD weakness before the weekend and will not keep the position open over the weekend. 1.5650 is the downside target.
6:56a UTC, November 23 2010: We were stopped out on our long from GU yesterday but the secondary trade – “If 1.60 fails then that opens up an immediate downside challenge of the daily rising trend support at 1.5900″ – just put 100 pips into the equity pile.
We’ve taken out a reward/risk long above strong rising trend support at 1.5900 for another shot at 1.5930/60/90, though I am less optimistic about the trade given the lack of risk appetite today than I was at the end of last week when we booked 100+ off the pair. Stop is tight below 1.59 and I will look to short below this level for a challenge at 1.5850 and 5800
Yesterday PRO Performance
Pair Result EURUSD No trades AUDUSD -6 pips GBPUSD No trades USDCHF No trades USDJPY No trades Daily Total: -6 pips Feb 2012 664 pips Mar 2012 755 pips Apr 2012 297 pips May 2012 (mtd) 14 pips *Signal results from 2012-05-16. Looking for month-by-month performance breakdown?
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