February 7th @ 7:58 UTC – We will not trade the UJ at these levels because our preference is to short this pair, but the BoJ is lurking at these levels to drive the price up so we will pass. Aggressive traders could look to take a breakout trade in either direction (long on resistance break and short on support break) with targets at 20/20/20/20 for 80 pips profit. We will remain flat for now.
February 3rd @ 7:56 UTC – We didn’t take any trades yesterday as detailed in yesterday’s analysis. It is Friday and we don’t trade on Fridays due to the volatility that generally accompanies the low volume. We have put aggressive setups and S/R lines on the chart above, and all alerts/PRO features will continue to work as normal.
February 2nd @ 6:27 UTC - We stayed flat as promised as price is to low for us to continue getting short (the direction we want to trade) with the BoJ lurking in the depths and we haven’t seen a good reason to get long yet. We will stay flat for the moment until a better technical signal appears.
February 1st @ 7:54 UTC - We stayed flat as promised as price is to low for us to continue getting short (the direction we want to trade) with the BoJ lurking in the depths and we haven’t seen a good reason to get long yet. We will stay flat for the moment until a better technical signal appears.
January 31st @ 6:01 UTC - We stayed flat as promised as price is to low for us to continue getting short (the direction we want to trade) with the BoJ lurking in the depths and we haven’t seen a good reason to get long yet. We will stay flat for the moment until a better technical signal appears.
January 30th @ 12:21 UTC Intraday Update – We had been waiting weeks for a reason to trade UJ and we weren’t going to let the chance escape us! Last week as the price finally got into the 78+ range we had been waiting for and then kicked up a large bearish candlestick that closed below 78.00 causing us to enter and close for our 80 pips from Thursday’s analysis rather quickly. We are, unfortunately, back at a price point that we do not consider wise to trade the UJ as we are still looking to get short primarily but the risk of BoJ intervention looms large at any lower lows (and in fact may already be slowing the descent).
January 27th @ 8:33 UTC – The chart above has also been updated with our aggressive trading ideas. We normally don’t trade on Fridays due to the higher volatility caused by the lower volume of Fridays. CandlePRO and Swing signals will continue to function as normal for PRO members.
January 25th @ 6:17 UTC - We may actually get a chance to trade the UJ today! Pair is up in the 78 stratosphere, where we are wanting to get short – all we lack now is a reason to get short. We will take an aggressive short without confirmation if we see another large leg up into the 78.5 range with targets at 15,15,25,25 for 80 pips profit, otherwise we are waiting for a good support line to form so we can short it.
January 24th @ 8:57 UTC - the problem with UJ is that even when breaks happen the pair barely moves! Yesterday bullish outbreak of our falling resistance looks decent on the above chart, but in reality the pair only moved 35 pips on the break, and that is if you got in immediately! Regardless we are still waiting for some better rallies to get short on and remain on the sideline – we are looking primarily in the 7800 range for shorts.
January 23rd @ 5:37 UTC - 77.30 presents the firmest resistance we have seen in days for this pair that aggressive traders could look to get short below / long above on. Still no movement in the UJ that is worth trading for us swing traders – since beginning the year the pair has not moved out of a tight 70 pip range and most of that has been in an even tighter 50 pip range. We are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 18th @ 7:22 UTC - Still no movement in the UJ that is worth trading – since beginning the year the pair has not moved out of a tight 70 pip range and most of that has been in an even tighter 50 pip range. We are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 17th @ 10:16 UTC - UJ is consolidating in a tight range between 7730 and 7670 – we are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 16th @ 6:16 UTC – UJ is consolidating in a tight range between 7730 and 7670 – we are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 13@ 9:19 UTC - UJ is consolidating in a tight range between 7730 and 7670 – we are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 12@ 10:01 UTC - UJ is consolidating in a tight range between 7730 and 7670 – we are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better opportunity to get short as no setups look juicy enough for us to risk equity on at the moment.
January 11th @ 9:26 UTC - Pair did end up rising and taking out the upper resistance line but, as we mentioned in the intraday update, the setup was not solid enough for us to risk our equity on it so we are still on the sidelines for UJ. Our preference is to wait for a new rising support to form and get broken for a nice short entry but there isn’t a good enough setup on this chart quite yet so we are staying on the sidelines for the time being.
January 10th @ 16:02 UTC INTRADAY UPDATE – We did get long on the resistance break from yesterday and are closing it out at current price for -15 as the pair appears to be consolidating in a tight range shown above, with a breakout in either direction equally likely. The setup is not good enough for us to risk equity on, however, so we will wait for a better trendline to enter on. Aggressive setups on shown above.
January 9th @ 9:42 UTC – UJ has finally started to show some life and we will tentatively look to get long on a break above the falling trend resistance shown as a blue on today’s chart. We will target 15/20/25/30 for 90 pips profit, and will keep our SL tight and moved frequently as this is a fairly aggressive trade.
January 6th @ 9:33 UTC - The chart above has also been updated with our aggressive trading ideas. We normally don’t trade on Fridays, and with the first NFP of 2012 due out today we consider any trading to be extremely aggresive and will sit today out. CandlePRO and Swing signals will continue to function as normal for PRO members.
January 5th @ 7:29 UTC - Our long was triggered as our falling resistance from yesterday was broken. However, like most pairs yesterday with the exception of USDCHF the UJ simply limped along on the low volume after the resistance break. We are still in the long, as it hovers near break even, and will only look to close on a downside break of the support at 76.60. Until then we are still targeting 15/20/25/25 for 85 pips profit.
January 4th @ 10:00 UTC - We are looking to get long on a topside break of falling trend resistance (top blue line), currently at 76.70 and falling, with targets at 15/20/25/25 for 85 pips profit. We are not looking to get short at these levels.
January 3rd 2012 @ 6:27 UTC – UJ finally bit the big one and is plummeting like a rock. Whether this was the BoJ shifting their artificial currency targets for 2012 or they have actually thrown in the towel or impossible to say without some serious insider information, but what is nearly certain is that BoJ will not let this drop continue indefinitely and neither will the market. We are short term bearish on this pair as there is still plenty of room to full, however we don’t currently see any setups worth trading at these levels. We will instead look to add a falling trend resistance when one develops and then get long off a break of the resistance (charts will be updated automatically).
December 29th @ 6:44 UTC - Aggressive setups shown on chart above! We will not be trading today as there are only two days left in 2011 and markets are whisper thin, meaning even slight rumors could whip you out of a position right now. Aggressive setups are shown on the chart above for you brave souls looking to trade these dangerous waters.
Signals will resume again Tuesday, January 3rd and we will embark on yet another year together! Thanks for making PipHut the #1 forex community year after year – we would be lost without you all :). CandlePRO and PRO S/R Breaks and Bounces will continue to work as normal and S/R charts will be updated for PRO members.
See you in 2012!
December 28th @ 7:48 UTC - ”We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 27th @ 7:19 UTC - ”We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 22nd @ 8:05 UTC - We will not be trading today due to the light holiday + end of year volume. Light volume tends to create volatile and unpredictable markets. Normal analysis will resume Tuesday, December 27th, though we will continue to update the S/R Charts and S/R alerts + CandlePRO alerts will continue to operate normally. Happy Holidays and see you on Tuesday! Aggressive setups shown on chart above.
December 21st @ 9:28 UTC - “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 20th @ 9:08 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 19th @ 10:42 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 15th @ 9:41 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 14th @ 9:07 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 13th @ 6:40 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 12th @ 9:45 UTC - Aggressive setups shown above – “We are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 8th @9:58 UTC - We are not trading today due to the new features rollout announced this morning and also because of the extreme market choppiness we expect from the EU Summit. Our chart has been updated above with aggressive setups and of course CandlePRO, breakout alerts and bounce alerts will continue to work just fine :).
December 7th @ 8:05 UTC - Well if you took the support break from Monday you are a whopping 15 pips in the profit at the moment. We did not because “we are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 6th @ 7:02 UTC - There has been a downside break of the rising trend support we’ve been tracking but, as we mentioned in last week’s analysis, we are not looking to get short at these levels regardless of the break. We are still waiting for another BoJ intervention to get short off, preferably in the area of 78.50-79.00. ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 2nd @ 9:41 UTC – We are not trading this pair today due to our Friday Rule (Friday’s have lower volume and higher volatility). Aggressive setups shown on chart above and the long standing trade setup is still in effect: ”"We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
December 1st @ 10:27 UTC - Pair is sitting on rising trend support and is providing a tempting looking short break but we will pass for the details laid out in our long standing UJ trade plan – “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 30th @ 9:06 UTC – Pair continues to climb upward – probably because most traders share our same attitude that we aren’t going to look to sell at these prices when the BoJ is lurking, ready to print us out our positions. Same setup two weeks running (no need to get desperate and try to force a bad or low probability setup): ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 29th @ 9:30 UTC - Pair has just broken below the aggressive rising trend support we’ve had on our chart for a couple weeks but, as we mentioned in yesterday’s analysis we are not taking a short at this level and will wait for rallies higher to get short on. As usual, not a whole lot happening with UJ. ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 28th @ 12:08 UTC - “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 25th @ 7:49 UTC - Chart updated with aggressive setups above. Yesterday was a major bank holiday and most major traders are not trading today – this creates thin market conditions and we will not be trading today due to the greatly increased risk of volatility. Have a good weekend and we will see you Monday!
November 24th @ 6:52 UTC - U.S. Banks are closed today for Thanksgiving. With the banks closed the next two days will be very low volume, and that low volume can lead to big swings on low liquidity or just hours of watching the pair barely move. Either way, our main trading plan is to take the time off and you should too! We have updated the chart above with trading setups (we consider all trading especially aggressive/risky these two days and will not be trading ourselves). PRO members will get all charts update for all pairs today and tomorrow.
November 23rd @ 8:33 UTC - So UJ has been such a bad pair to trade over the past month – we’ve only taken a handful of trades in the past 6 months since the BoJ started daily interventions. Have an idea for which pair we should replace it with for daily analysis and charts? Send your vote to support@piphut.com. ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 22nd @ 6:24 UTC - Our long term falling resistance was broken but, as we mentioned yesterday, we are not looking for longs at this level and are instead looking to get short on a substantial rally. “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 21st @ 7:56 UTC - We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.
November 18th @ 8:21 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from PRO Analysis! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
November 17th @ 9:11 UTC - Remember the days a few years ago when UJ was the most exciting pair to trade? The BoJ has effectively ruined this pair 90% of the time! ”We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 16th @ 9:10 UTC - Another day in UJ, another copy and paste session: “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 15th @ 8:03 UTC - Another day in UJ, another copy and paste session: “We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.”
November 14th @ 8:21 UTC - We are still looking for reasons to get short on this pair but we need a more substantial rally to get short on as we still fear the BoJ going on another buying spree to keep its currency artificially weak for export purposes (look at the late October results of their last buying spree). Therefor we are waiting for their next intervention, probably in the 78.50 region, to get short on, and we will target 78.30, 78.05, 77.75 and 77.45 for 105 pips profit.
November 11th @ 7:14 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from PRO Analysis! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
November 10th @ 9:05 UTC - Reason #342 we don’t like trading UJ: after 2 weeks of tracking support our trade was stopped out at break even. Oh well – better to miss out than to miss equity. At this point we are tracking a new falling resistance around 77.80 and we will look for 1h and 4h signals to get short on below this resistance level, or look to get long on a break above 77.90 with targets at 78.10, 78.35, 78.65 and 78.95 for 105 pips.
November 9th @ 5:12 UTC - We finally had a break below 77.80 support (we’ve been tracking it for the better part of two weeks now) and have a short open at 77.75. It is about 20 pips in the profit and already the pair appears to be losing steam. We have moved our stop loss to break even already to avoid the inevitable BoJ backlash if they start to get too worried, with targets at: 77.55 (hit), 77.30, 77.05 and 76.75 for 80 pips potential. We are bearish on the pair in general and continue to see getting short on rallies as our highest probability trade.
November 8th @ 5:00 UTC - Our setups remain the same as the pair has hardly moved and the technical outlook remains the same: “We are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit.”
November 7th @ 8:31 UTC - We only had one trade last week (good for 100 pips) as the pair continued to trade in a tight range between 78.50-77.80 (most likely on BoJ manipulation). Our setups remain the same as the pair has not moved much: “We are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit.”
November 4th @ 4:31 UTC - No change from yesterday as the pair continued to consolidate in its tight range. We will not look for our breakout trade today because of our Friday rule but for you aggressive traders the aggressive setup remains the same as yesterday: “We are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit, but will also look to scalp the insides of this tight range (shorts at 7850 and longs at 77.80).”
November 3rd @ 5:35 UTC - The pair continues to tightly consolidate between 78.50 and 77.80. We are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit, but will also look to scalp the insides of this tight range (shorts at 7850 and longs at 77.80).
November 2nd @ 6:02 UTC - Same setups as yesterday as the pair barely moved from its consolidation channel: we are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit.
November 1st @ 6:00 UTC - Our short from yesterday took in a cool 100 pips (dropped for 30 more but we will take what we can get off of UJ). Today we are continuing to look for reasons to get short, particularly if there is another rally to the 79-79.50 resistance zone with targets back down to 78.00 for 100-150 pips profit.
October 31st @ 7:24 UTC - We have been looking for a good opportunity to get short on UJ for weeks and the BOJ’s intervention this morning has provided a great setup. We took an aggressive short, no candle confirmation, on the close of the last 4h candle at 79.15 and we are targeting 79.00, 78.75, 78.45 and 78.15 (thanks @fxwiz for the number corrections) for 100 pips potential. The big risk to the trade is that the BOJ will continue to drive the price upward of course, or that we will see another wave of short squeezing but we believe at this price that shorts are the only trades worth taking.
October 28th @ 7:59 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from CP signals! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
October 27th @ 5:58 UTC - Our long once again barely yesterday and is alive to fight another day. Currently pair is at 75.90 and we are still long from 76.25 targeting 76.45, 76.70 and 76.95 for 75 pips profit. There is an opportunity for an aggressive technical short on a rise to 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15 and 75.80 for 80 pips profit.
October 26th @ 3:38 UTC - Our long barely survived the drop to 75.72 yesterday – coming within 7 pips of our SL! Currently pair is at 76.00 and we are still long from 76.25 targeting 76.45, 76.70 and 76.95 for 75 pips profit. There is an opportunity for an aggressive technical short on a rise to 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15 and 75.80 for 80 pips profit.
October 25th @ 7:14 UTC - Our long has gone nowhere since we established it yesterday at 76.25 but we still have it open. For those still looking enter today we would wait until we see a good break of the blue falling resistance above (currently at 76.20), and then look to get long with targets at 76.45, 76.70 and 76.95 for 75 pips profit (the same targets we are looking for on our long from yesterday). There is an opportunity for an aggressive technical short on a rise to 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15 and 75.80 for 80 pips profit.
October 24th @ 6:05 UTC - We have established a long at current price (76.25) in anticipation of another rise in this pair. We are targeting 76.45, 76.70 and 76.95 for 70 pips profit. There is an opportunity for an aggressive technical short on a rise to 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15 and 75.80 for 80 pips profit.
October 21st @ 7:12 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and great pips this week, especially from CP signals! As always if you have any questions we can still be reached at support@piphut.com
October 20th @ 6:44 UTC - UJ continues to range trade in a very tight band and we will look to short any rallies to the 77.50 region, targeting 25 pips chunks down to 76.50 or long any dip to the 76.30 support targeting 25 pip chunks up to 77.30 for 100 pips. Setups shown above.
October 19th @ 6:00 UTC - All targets were (barely) hit on our short from the 17th for 65 pips and we are currently flat. We will look to get short again on a rally to the 77.30-77.50 resistance band to take advantage of the range with targets (from 77.50) at 77.30, 77.10, 76.80 and 76.50 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to get long on dips to 76.60-76.40 with targets at 76.80, 77.00 and 77.30 70-90 pips potential.
October 17th @ 7:43 UTC - We are bearish on UJ and have taken an aggressive short at 77.25 (current price) as it has not failed to drop to rising trend support (blue line) once in the past 2 months. We are targeting 77.05, 76.85, 76.60 for 65 pips. Trend is up so on any rally to support the smart move is to look for longs on small timeframe candlestick signals, but the pair has also been ranging so the same strategy could be employed to take shorts (like the one we took above) on any rallies for a downside challenge of support around 76.60.
October 14th @ 6:30 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday and good pips this week!
October 13th @ 5:38 UTC - And that’s why we wanted a sustained break below 76.60! The break happened – and if you entered on just the break you got 30-40 pips in the profit – but was quickly bought up by, we are guessing, the BoJ as they are trying to draw a line in the sand against too much currency appreciation. Today we will look to short another rally to 77.50 with 30m or 1h candlestick confirmation and targets at 77.30, 77.05, 76.75 and 76.50.
October 12th @ 6:29 UTC - Pair continues to consolidate in a sideways fashion, leaving our primary trade intact for the third day running: “short on a sustained break below 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15, 75.90 and 75.60 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking for any longs at the moment as the long-term technical outlook of the pair is bearish.”
October 11th @ 7:54 UTC - No trades activated yesterday as our sustained break never happened so a short was never tripped. Today the primary setup is the same: short on a sustained break below 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15, 75.90 and 75.60 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking for any longs at the moment as the long-term technical outlook of the pair is bearish.
October 10th @ 9:38 UTC - if the current 4h candle closes below the blue rising trend support at 76.60 (shown above) we will get short with targets at 76.40, 76.15, 75.90 and 75.60 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking for any longs at the moment as the long-term technical outlook of the pair is bearish.
October 7th @ 8:30 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. For you aggressive traders we’ve updated the chart above with new S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday.
October 6th @ 7:45 UTC - Same trade setups as yesterday as pair continues to consolidate: Today we will look to get short if we see another rally into the 77.50 resistance range, targeting 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We are also adding a short on a sustained break below 76.50 with targets at 76.25, 76.00, 75.75 and 75.50 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking to get long at this point.
October 5th @ 6:45 UTC - Today we will look to get short if we see another rally into the 77.50 resistance range, targeting 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We are also adding a short on a sustained break below 76.50 with targets at 76.25, 76.00, 75.75 and 75.50 for 100 pips potential. We are not looking to get long at this point.
October 4th @ 4:55 UTC - Our trading analysis remains unchanged from yesterday as the chart techs remain the same: “We are once again looking to get short on rallies for UJ as this strategy has been very successful for those that have followed it – take a look at all the large rallies that have, one by one, all been sold off for 50+ pips at a time. Today we will look to get short if we see another rally into the 77.50 resistance range, targeting 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We are not looking to get long on the pair at this point as the daily charts are extremely bearish for this pair at this point.”
October 3rd @8:43 UTC - We are once again looking to get short on rallies for UJ as this strategy has been very successful for those that have followed it – take a look at all the large rallies that have, one by one, all been sold off for 50+ pips at a time. Today we will look to get short if we see another rally into the 77.50 resistance range, targeting 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We are not looking to get long on the pair at this point as the daily charts are extremely bearish for this pair at this point.
September 30th @ 5:05 UTC - The aggressive trade paid off for aggressive traders yesterday when once again the pair rose to the 76.80 resistance zone, as predicted, and then kicked out a nice hanging man in candlepro (14:00 on 1h charts). Pair has fallen 50 pips since that bearish signal. Today we are not trading because it is Friday but for you aggressive traders our primary trade would be a short on a sustained break below 76.40 as the recent consolidation appears to be a bearish channel after the break below long-term horizontal support from last week (horizontal blue line on the left side of the chart above). Short targets at 76.20, 76.00, 75.75 and 75.50 for 90 pips potential. Of course there is an opportunity for another short on a rally to the 77.00 resistance zone. We are showing yesterday’s chart above to show what we were looking for – and because the setups are basically identical as today.
September 29th @ 6:45 UTC - Today our primary trade is a short on a sustained break below 76.25 with targets at 76.05, 75.80, 75.55 and 75.30 for 95 pips potential. Aggressive trade could look to get short on a rise to 76.80 targeting back down to 76.30 for 50 pips but we will pass on this trade as the Reward/Risk ratio isn’t good enough even if the probability is high.
September 28th *Intraday Update* @ 15:12 UTC - Our long breakout trade above 75.55 hit the first target (75.75) and got 30 pips into the profit allowing us to tighten our SL to break even but price did reverse and hit our tightened SL for zero trade (which we view as a win). Today our primary trade is a short on a sustained break below 76.25 with targets at 76.05, 75.80, 75.55 and 75.30 for 95 pips potential. Aggressive trade could look to get short on a rise to 76.80 targeting back down to 76.30 for 50 pips but we will pass on this trade as the Reward/Risk ratio isn’t good enough even if the probability is high.
September 27th @ 6:38 UTC - UJ continues to consolidate and we are currently flat as the pair never got high enough or low enough for us to grab an entry yesterday. Today we are switching to a breakout strategy and looking to get long on a sustained break above 75.55 (targets at 75.75, 76.00, 76.25 and 76.50) and short on a sustained break below 76.15 (targets at 76.00, 75.75, 75.50 and 75.25 for 90 pips potential).
September 26th @ 6:10 UTC - After breaking below rising trend support at 7640 last week the pair has been slowly laddering lower and we will look to take advantage of this by getting short on any good rallies, especially with candlepro confirmation. Our primary today is short on a rally to the 76.70 resistance zone with targets at 76.50 (tight), 76.25, 76.00 and 75.75 for 95 pips potential. There is room for an aggressive short on a sustained break below 76.10 with targets at 75.90, 75.70, 75.50 and 75.30 for 80 pips potential, and an aggressive long on bullish candlepro signals around (bottom blue) rising trend support at 76.15 with targets back up to 76.70 where we will close and look to activate our primary short.
September 23 @ 7:01 UTC - Today is Friday and, as usual, we do not trade Friday’s due to the generally low volume and higher risk for volatility. Please see the chart below for the updated S/R lines and trading setups. See you Monday.
September 22 @ 8:13 UTC - We closed our first lot for +40 and got stopped out on our second lot for -40 yesterday, putting us at break even for this frustrating pair. We are still bearish and looking for opportunities to get short on rallies to the 76.50-77.00 resistance zone on good 30m and above candlepro timeframes, targeting another stab at 76.00 and 75.50, though we will enter with only a single lot as this pair has proven hard to profit off of (most likely thanks to BoJ intervention as it struggles to keep its currency weak for export padding).
September 21 @ 6:08 UTC - If we were to write a post title for this pair it would be “BoJ still kicking”. Our short from 76.70 yesterday is doing very well as our SL just survived the rallies by, we presume, the BoJ as it looks to hold 76.00. We also added a lot to our short position on the sustained break below 76.40 (yesterday’s secondary) with targets at 76.20, 75.95, 75.65 and 75.35 for an additional ~100 pips to our existing short.
September 20 @ 6:09 UTC - UJ finally triggered a trade for us as the pair closed below the rising trend support we had been tracking (top blue line) at 76.70 and got about 40 pips in the profit before settling in at current price around 76.50. We close one lot for +30 and still have one lot running with the stop-loss tightened to 76.80 to only risk 10 pips on the remaining lot, meaning the worst we can do at this point is +20 pips for the entire setup (+30 and -10). For those still looking to enter our preferred trading direction for the day are shorts and we will look to add a short to our position on a sustained break below 76.40 with targets at 76.20, 75.95, 75.65 and 75.35 for ~105 pips potential.
September 19 @ 7:00 UTC - UJ gapped but, in typical UJ fashion even the gap was tiny coming in at less than 10 pips. Our primary trade today is to get short on a sustained break of the newest rising trend support (shown in blue above) currently at 76.70 with targets at 76.55 (tight!), 76.35, 76.10 and 75.80 for 90 pips potential. We will watch the 76.30 support area closely to close our short and get long as 76.30 has held repeated bear attempts over the past couple of weeks. Long targets from 76.30 @ 76.50, 76.75, 77.00 and 77.30 for 100 pips potential. Finally there is an opportunity for short-term traders to get long around currently price levels (~76.80) on 15m bullish candlesticks as the pair bounces along its blue support trendline.
September 16 @ 5:21 UTC - Charts udpated with trade setups. Written analysis forthcoming in a few hours today but we wanted to get the charts into your hands. Since today is friday we will not be trading, and view most trading as much more aggressive than normal as Friday trading tends to be light and volatile. Safe pipping and see you next week!
September 15 @ 3:21 UTC - We are beginning to feel a bit like a broken record with this trade but we are finally close enough to the 76.50 support where we think it may actually be activated today on a good CandlePRO signal: we are looking to get long on a drop to 76.50 support with CandlePRO confirmation and targets at 76.75, 77.00, 77.25 and 77.50 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to get long on a sustained break above blue falling trend resistance at 76.85 and targets @ 77.05 (tight), 77.30, 77.60 and 77.90 for 105 pips potential.
September 14 @ 7:30 UTC - no trade entered yesterday as price never fell to our primary setup entry point, which is still our primary trade setup today: “we are looking to get long on a drop to 76.50 support with CandlePRO confirmation and targets at 76.75, 77.00, 77.25 and 77.50 for 100 pips potential.”
September 13 @ 6:16 UTC - We got our aggressive short yesterday (single lot) on the 1h sustained break below support at 77.15 – the trade got 35 pips in the profit before turning back and hitting our tightened SL for +5 pips (we didn’t get more because we were trying to give the trade a little breathing room to drop). Today we are looking to get long on a drop to 76.50 support with CandlePRO confirmation and targets at 76.75, 77.00, 77.25 and 77.50 for 100 pips potential.
September 12 @ 5:23 UTC - We have been looking for opportunities to get short on UJ for weeks now and that will continue today as we believe that traders still wish to buy the yen as a safe haven currency. We will get short on a rally to 78.00 with CandlePRO confirmation (30m and above timeframes) with targets at 77.80, 77.55, 77.25 and 77.00 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to establish a small, aggressive short on a sustained break below 77.15 on 1h charts with targets at 76.95, 76.70, 76.45 and 76.15 for 100 pips potential.
September 9 @ 5:05 UTC - BoJ has succeeded in stabilizing the UJ, that much is for sure: the pair has ranged between 77.75 and 76.35 for the better part of a month now and we have taken very few trades in the pair as a result of the a) lack of movement and b) lack of a clear trend. We continue to sit on the sidelines of this pair and our preferred trade would be a short on any significant rally, especially to the 78.00 resistance zone with targets back down to 76.50.
September 8 @ 7:47 UTC - No trade entered yesterday as price never got low enough for our primary long to be triggered or high enough for our secondary short to get triggered. Today we are looking to get short on a break of latest rising trend support at 77.20 with targets @ 77.00, 76.75, 76.50 and 76.25 for 95 pips potential. We will closely watch our short and CandlePRO around 76.50 support for a chance to close and get long targeting another test of 77.50 resistance.
There is also an opportunity for aggressive longs near current price action at 77.35 with CandlePRO confirmation and targets up to 78.45 – FYI we will not be taking this trade ourselves as we still view longs as against the trend (even though price has been turning up lately).
September 7 @ 3:49 UTC - while we are bearish on UJ fundamentally the pair has been making some slow progress at looking bullish recently with a new higher high in place and a series of higher lows as well over the past couple weeks. While we are not ready to abandon our short setups altogether we are switching our primary trade to a long on a dip to short-term rising trend support currently around 76.75 and CP confirmation with targets at 76.95, 77.25, 77.55 and 77.85 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to get short on any rally above 78.00 with candlepro confirmation and targets back to 77.00 for 100 pips potential.
September 6 @ 8:10 UTC - same song and dance with UJ: the pair is bouncing along strong intraday support at 76.40 (blue line on chart above) and we are looking to get long above this level and short on a sustained break below. At the time of this writing the price has spiked to 71.17 and appears to still be rising. We will look to establish a short on a major rallies with 77.70-78.00 where we will look the most closely for bearish candlepro signals. Short targets from 77.70 are 77.50, 77.25, 77.00 and 76.70 for 100 pips potential.
September 5 @ 6:31 UTC - No signal for today as US Banks are closed for Labor Day. With banks closed the markets will be much thinner than usual. We expect price to drift along with no clear direction until money re-enters the market Tuesday, and we will hold off trading until then. Of course, there is always the alternative in thin markets: that a few players will push the exchange rate further than normal and there will be increased volatility.
September 2 @ 3:26 UTC - Same analysis as yesterday as nothing has changed with this pair, however because it is Friday we will not be trading even if the primary is activated and we view all trades as “aggressive” before the weekend. We are, in general, bearish on the pair and would look to fade any rally. Yesterday’s analysis: “It is a good thing we removed the sustained break below 76.50 as a trade setup yesterday: the pair broke that level briefly yesterday before rallying back up. We are still ultimately bearish on this pair and looking to sell into any rallies, but the real story here is how solid 76.40 has been since early August – we’ve had no fewer than 9 4h candlesticks touch this level and bounce up since August 10th. Our primary trade will be to sell a rally to 77.50 territory with a bearish CandlePRO signal and targets at 77.20, 77.00, 76.75 and 76.50 for 100 pips potential.”
September 1 @ 5:53 UTC - It is a good thing we removed the sustained break below 76.50 as a trade setup yesterday: the pair broke that level briefly yesterday before rallying back up. We are still ultimately bearish on this pair and looking to sell into any rallies, but the real story here is how solid 76.40 has been since early August – we’ve had no fewer than 9 4h candlesticks touch this level and bounce up since August 10th. Our primary trade will be to sell a rally to 77.50 territory with a bearish CandlePRO signal and targets at 77.20, 77.00, 76.75 and 76.50 for 100 pips potential.
We will however look to get short on a sustained break below 76.30 with targets at 76.10, 75.85, 75.55 and 75.25 for 105 pips potential. For this setup we will tighten our SL on each target to avoid the BoJ whipping us out of our profit.
August 31 @ 9:56 UTC - UJ barely moved, once again, which is exactly what the BOJ wants: stability. We have decided to remove our primary trade from yesterday from consideration (short on a sustained break below 76.50) as we believe the Bank of Japan is once again looking for reasons to drive the price upward on any signs of it falling. The pair may well still drop after a sustained break of 76.50 but we believe that the odds have decreased beyond where it is a smart long-term trade. We will instead wait for another rally to get short on – at least to 77.40 with targets @ 77.20, 77.00, 76.75 and 76.50 for 90 pips potential.
August 30 @ 10:25 UTC - Pair barely moved yesterday, leaving us stuck on the sidelines waiting for a better position. Our blue rising trend support line is still intact and we will continue to look for a bearish break below 76.50 with targets at 76.30 (tight t1), 76.05, 75.80 and 75.50 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to get short on another rally to the 77.50 resistance band with CandlePRO confirmation and targets back down to 76.50 for 100 pips potential.
August 29 @ 7:07 UTC - We closed out all lots on our short on Friday (as indicated in our Friday analysis) and are looking to re-enter short on a sustained break below new rising trend support (last blue line) at 76.50 with targets at 76.30 (tight t1), 76.05, 75.80 and 75.50 for 100 pips potential. We will also look to get short on another rally to the 77.50 resistance band with CandlePRO confirmation and targets back down to 76.50 for 100 pips potential.
August 26 @ 9:35 UTC - Nearly perfect trading plan from Wednesday as our long rose to hit all targets for 95 pips and then our secondary trade setup was triggered (“will look to sell in the 77.50 range with CP signals to fade back down”) when a nice Three Down pattern appeared on the 4h charts around 77.30 and we are now short at +30 and targeting 76.20 (but will close out all lots before the weekend). We won’t open any new positions with this pair until Monday when we begin waiting for rallies to get short on.
August 24 @ 9:12 UTC - Updated Chart above. We are still long from 76.65 which has gotten up to +50 in the profit so far but has sunk back down to +10 for remaining lots. As a reminder, we are targeting 76.85, 77.05, 77.30 and 77.60 for 95 pips potential and will look to sell in the 77.50 range with CP signals to fade back down.
August 23 @ 7:35 UTC - We are still long from 76.65 which has gotten up to +50 in the profit so far but has sunk back down to +10 for remaining lots. As a reminder, we are targeting 76.85, 77.05, 77.30 and 77.60 for 95 pips potential and will look to sell in the 77.50 range with CP signals to fade back down.
August 22 @ 2:15 UTC - The break of falling trend support we had been tracking all last week finally happened on a bullish gap at the start of trading late Sunday. We established a long position on the pullback to 76.65 with targets at 76.85, 77.05, 77.30 and 77.60 for 95 pips potential. We will look to ride the stop up as targets are hit as bearish sentiments toward UJ remain.
August 19 @ 9:30 UTC - We do not trade on Fridays due to thin volume conditions in the markets on Fridays which can create choppy, volatile and unpredictable price action. GU and UChf trades got triggered yesterday but we will not open any new positions before the weekend. For those aggressive trader’s looking to brave it we have updated the chart above with trade setups we would be pursuing on a normal trading day. Happy pipping and we will see you on Monday.
August 18 @ 14:06 UTC - Intraday Update - UJ continues to be a bit of a minefield with the BoJ lurking in the depths ready to devour any over-aggressive bears, while the charts still present as extremely bearish. We do have a nice blue falling trend resistance line on the chart above though that could provide a nice *pop* if it is broken, so we are looking to get long on a sustained break above this line at 76.65 with targets at 76.85, 77.10, 77.35 and 77.65 (though we expect 77.15 to provide stiff resistance).
August 17 @ 10:11 UTC - UJ has limped below our rising trend support triggering our short at 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.10, 75.80 and 75.50 for 110 pips potential. Our trade is about +5 pips in the profit currently. We have tight trailing stop to avoid getting whiplashed out by the BoJ (though if we do get stopped out we will look to re-establish a short at the new highs).
August 16 @ 6:06 UTC - The pair has been a scalper’s dream right now as the pair is bouncing off of rising trend support (bottom blue line). We are also now tracking a falling trend resistance (top blue line) which, when combined with the rising support offers us a nice technical consolidation pattern. The preferred direction for this type of pattern is to the downside but we will look to take trades in either direction with a long on a sustained break above 77.00 (targets @ 77.20, 77.45, 77.75 and 78.00) and short on a sustained break below 76.60 with targets at 76.40, 76.15, 75.90 and 75.65.
August 15 @ 9:07 UTC - UJ has been steadily rising (pullback) after a strong bearish week last week as the price crept back down, daring the BoJ officials to intervene once again. We are currently looking to get short on a sustained break below 76.50 with targets at 76.25, 76.00, 75.70 and 75.40 for 110 pips profit. There is also an opportunity to get long on a bounce off of the blue rising trend support line at 76.60, however we expect bearish pressure to start in again around 77.50 and will to tighten our SL around this level.
August 12 @ 7:54 UTC - We do not trade on Fridays due to thin volume conditions in the markets on Fridays which can create choppy, volatile and unpredictable price action. Given this week’s volatility we expect the pair to behave more strangely than normal. For those aggressive trader’s looking to brave it we have updated the chart above with trade setups we would be pursuing on a normal trading day. Happy pipping and we will see you on Monday.
August 11 @ 9:33 UTC - the pair finally limped through our falling resistance line (long yellow line on chart above) and triggered our long. The follow through has been discouraging as dollar bulls have been unable to fight the tidal wave of yen bulls recently. Nonetheless we still have our long open from 76.80 with targets 7705, 7735, 7760, 7790. The charts are technical bearish but are oversold and the BoJ is lurking in the depths ready to eat any greedy bears.
August 10 @ 6:24 UTC - we are looking to get long a sustained break of the falling trend resistance line, currently at 7715 with targets at 7735, 7760, 7790 and 7820 for 105 pips potential. We are avoiding shorts right now for fear of a BoJ intervention.
August 9 @ 14:41 UTC - We are looking to go long on a sustained break of the loooong falling trend resistance shown with a yellow line above on the 4h chart. Specifically we are looking for a close above 77.50 with targets at 77.70, 77.95, 78.25 and 78.55 for 105 pips. We are not looking short at the moment for fear of a BoJ intervention.
August 5 @4:50 UTC - It is Friday (with the increased volatility and low volume that Friday’s bring) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas (arrows represent trading ideas). Have a safe weekend and we’ll see you next week for an exciting week.
August 3 @ 4:47 UTC - We closed yesterday’s short for +30 pips after it got more than 50 pips in the profit. We are looking to basically fade rallies and buy dips today as the pair has been extremely volatile and the markets are looking for direction right now. For dips we will look around 76.40 with targets back up to 77.50 for 110 pips potential. We will also look to short rallies to the 77.70 resistance zone with targets at 77.50, 77.20, 76.90 and 76.60 for 110 pips potential.
August 2 @ 5:20 UTC - UJ is looking very bearish at the moment after our latest rising trend support was broken and a few nice candlesticks appeared in CP. Of course this latest rally comes on the back of the news that the BoJ is ready and willing to intervene in the currency markets if the yen gains too much strength. Nonetheless we have established an aggressive short around current price action (77.50) and have our sights set on 77.30, 77.05, 76.80 and 76.55 for 95 pips potential. We will keep our trailing stop tight to avoid the bank’s intervention risk.
August 1 @ 7:07 UTC - We we were watching rising trend support (last yellow line) when CP kicked up a decent shooting star signal (candle open time was 06:00, signal time was 07:00). We were going to wait for a sustained break of that trend support but with the CP signal we took a single lot short around 7760 with targets at 7740, 7715, 7685 for 75 pips potential. In general we are bearish on the pair and will continue to look for reasons to get short.
July 28 @ 7:37 UTC - We missed the opportunity to get long above 7750 as we were looking for a bit more of a dip before entering, however our arrows from yesterday’s chart (left up above) perfectly explain what our next trade was: short near 78 as we anticipated the market would sell off any rally. We are currently around 35 pips in the profit and and will tighten our stop loss to 7770 when 7750 is reached, though we will leave the position open for a downside challenge of 77.00.
July 27 @ 7:19 UTC - Our charts have held completely true this week for this pair – we just haven’t seen a good enough entry to take advantage of that fact yet. We will look to get long on any dip to 77.00-77.50 with CP confirmation as we expect the BoJ to come in and scare the bears out of the market for a quick 50-100 pip jump. We will then look to get short around 77.80 (where blue falling trend resistance currently is) with targets back down to 77 for 80 pips.
July 26 @ 5:59 UTC - Ask and you shall receive. We were just commenting yesterday about how strange it is that the BoJ has not intervened recently and, sure enough they came in buying very strongly around 02:00 today – pushing the pair up 70 pips in a matter of minutes. We don’t think the BoJ is finished yet and we will look to get short on any more rallies to the 78.50 – with or without CP confirmation.
July 25 @ 12:55 UTC (Intraday Update) - Is the BoJ finally giving up? We doubt it, but we are surprised that they have not stepped in to rally the pair higher as it continues to drop. Our preference is to get short on rallies under 78.50 (with CP confirmation) and targets down to 77.35 by mid-week. We will keep our stops tight on any gain out of fear of a BoJ buying spree.
July 22 @ 6:03 UTC - It is Friday (with the increased volatility and low volume that Friday’s bring) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas. Have a great weekend.
July 21 @ 5:58 UTC - we are flat on this pair for the moment as it looks for a clearer direction (and also less BoJ interference). We have updated the chat above to show the most recent S/R lines and aggressive trade options.
July 20 @ 4:05 UTC - The pair has technically shown some signs of bottoming out as the downtrend has stalled out, and with the BoJ lurking in the depths it is enough for us to pass on any shorts at these levels. We prefer to look for shorts after a more significant rebound has occurred. We will look for an aggressive long above 79.30 with targets at 79.45 (tight t1), 79.65, 79.90 and 80.20 for 90 pips potential.
July 19 @ 4:43 UTC - UJ is going nowhere fast as the BoJ is confining it to a tight range. In non-manipulated markets we would look to get short below 78.80 but will pass on a short at this level as the BoJ is looking to drive the price up on major dips. We will stay flat for today until price gtes back up to a level where we feel comfortable shorting.
July 18 @ 4:40 UTC - Technicals are bearish but the BoJ is circling around 78.00 like a shark with a strong taste for bears, so we will pass on any bearish breaks and instead only look to get long on a sustained break above 79.30 with targets at 73.50, 73.75, 74.00 and 74.30 for 100 pips potential.
July 15 @ 7:17 UTC - It is Friday, markets our choppy and US inflation data is out at 13:00 (making markets even more volatile) so we will not be trading today. For those aggressive traders see our chart above for current S/R lines and trading ideas. Have a good weekend.
July 14 @ 6:08 UTC - Our short from 7935 raced into the profit and hit all targets for 85 pips by the final lot (we’ll leave yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for0. Right now the BoJ is attempting to slow the descent and has just bought the oversold pair up to 7950 but the market does not appear to be biting on the bait and already the price has dropped back down 50 pips in a matter of minutes. Regardless the break did mean a sustained break of falling trend resistance and we have established a long at 79.00 with targets at 79.15, 79.40, 79.65 and 79.85 for 85 pips potential.
July 13 @ 6:59 UTC - we have taken a short recently at 7935 as price has broken below our rising trend support level. We have a very tight stop on our pair at 7965 to avoid the BoJ kiss of death and are targeting 7920 (very tight first target on uj), 7900, 7875 and 7850 eventually (though we will tighten even further before we reach that level as the banks appears to be buying around that level.
July 12 @ 5:52 UTC - All targets hit on our short for +60 pips per lot after the break below our support level. The pair is beginning to look oversold to us and we will look to get long on a sustained break above 80.25 with targets at 80.45, 80.75 and 81.00 for 75 pips potential. We are not looking to get short at the moment because of the high risk of BoJ intervention.
July 11 @ 8:43 UTC - UJ has a nice rising trend support line right now (support currently at 80.70) and this will be our pivot for the day: longs above 80.70 with targets at 80.90, 81.10 and 81.30 for 60 pips potential; shorts below with targets at 80.50, 80.30 and 80.10 for 60 pips potential.
July 7 @ 9:27 UTC - we are still short on this pair currently but we have moved our ultimate target to 80.50 before tomorrow’s new release, tightened our SL to only risk 20 pips and taken profit on half our position at +20. In short: we are hedging our bet before the news event.
July 6 @ 7:58 UTC - We are currently short from 81.00 after two consecutive 1h shooting stars just on our rising support line at 22:00 and 23:00. That trade is currently about 5 pips in the profit and we are still targeting a drop to 80.30 before the week is over. We are tightening our SL to 81.15 to minimize risk.
July 5 @ 7:54 UTC - We are currently flat but closely watching rising trend support (last gold line on chart above) for opportunities to get long above it and short below. This support is currently at 81.00 and rising. Our preference is to get short on a sustained break below as we feel that this direction allows our trade the most space to fall before encountering major support around 80.30 (our target for the trade).
July 1 @ 6:52 UTC - we closed our shorts for a profit of 25 pips per lot and have remained flat on this pair since. We will remain flat going into the 3-day weekend, but for aggressive traders we have posted the pertinent S/R lines, and we are generally bullish on the pair. There are no ideal setups at the moment – but we would generally support buying on dips with CP candlestick confirmation.
June 30 @ 9:18 UTC - our primary trade (short on sustained break below 80.95) was triggered yesterday as the 13:00 candle pierced way down below support. That candle closed at 80.77 and we took up a short position at 80.75 – that position is currently about 40 pips in the profit and we have the SL moved up to +25 to lock in profit, though we are still targeting down to 80.00 in the short term. The first arrow on the chart above representes our primary trade from yesterday, while the arrows on the right represent the aggressive long/shorts we are watching above the current support line – we are looking to get long above 80.30 and short below that level.
June 29 @ 7:51 UTC - We never got a sustained break below 80.65 so our primary was (narrowly) avoided which is a good thing. The topside resistance was broken through several times though which we know was profitable for several of you. We specifically weren’t looking for a long due to the bearish headwind on this pair so we passed on that aggressive long as well. For today we are looking to get short on a sustained break below 80.95 on the 1h charts with targets at 80.75, 80.50, 80.20 and 80.00 for 95 pips potential.
June 28 @ 7:52 UTC - UJ is caught in a bullish up channel on the 1h and 4h charts but it is currently near the top of this channel and we are looking to get short on a break below the latest rising trend support around 80.65 with targets at 80.40, 80.15 and 79.80 for up to 85 pips profit.
June 24 @ 5:49 UTC - there is a simple rule in trading: the more complicated your chart is the more assumptions you likely made and the higher the probability that some of those assumptions are wrong. And we feel like the UJ chart is fairly complicated at the moment, which means the direction for this pair is not clear yet. We will remain flat on this pair before the weekend and most likely look to get short on a rally to 81.00 starting on Monday.
June 23 @ 6:51 UTC - we took the bait on the break below 80.14 and setup a short at 80.05 on the sustained break. Needless to say this one jumped back up through the rising trend support and our trade got stopped out at -50 pips. We are now flat and will look to get short again on a rally to 81.00 with candlestick confirmation and targets at 80.75, 80.50, 80.25 and 80.00 for 100 pips potential. Leaving up yesterday’s chart to show our entry setup.
June 22 @ 6:53 UTC - We took the 4h bullish hammer at 12:00 above rising trend support – it had a nice bullish wick that closed above our trend support. We closed it out after only +10 pips, however, as a very bearish doji appeared on the 4h charts at 0:00 with a solid backtesting profit factor. While we did not enter short on the signal it was strong enough for us to prematurely close our long and we are awaiting this next candlestick close (~60m) – if there is a sustained break below 80.14 then we will open up a short position with targets at 80.00, 79.75, 79.50, 79.25, 79.00 for 114 pips potential. Scalpers and short-term traders can of course continue to get long on these bounces off of rising trend support (bottom black line on chart above).
June 21 @ 6:14 UTC - We hope the scalpers among us loved those bounces off the rising trend support we pointed out yesterday. That support is still holding firm as the price bounces along, those UJ is now resting just above 80.00 at 80.15. We are still looking to get short on a sustained break below 80.00 and yesterdays primary trade holds true for today: “a sustained break below 80.00 on the 1h or 4h charts would be enough for us to get short on this pair for a re-challenge of 79.50, however we will use a tight stop to avoid getting whipped out by the BoJ buying team.”
June 20 @ 7:34 UTC - UJ experienced a big drop on Friday and is now forming a bearish flag pattern on the 1h and 4h charts that indicates there is still more downside to be had in this pair. Specifically a sustained break below 80.00 on the 1h or 4h charts would be enough for us to get short on this pair for a re-challenge of 79.50, however we will use a tight stop to avoid getting whipped out by the BoJ buying team.
June 17 @ 6:03 UTC - We did open a long according to yesterday’s trade plan after a solid 1h bullish doji appeared at 23:00 @ 80.57 – right above our support at 80.50. The pair has not moved much since then and we will look to close the trade after 10 candles as per the 10 candle strategy, meaning there is only a few hours left on this trade. We will not open any more positions before the weekend, but in general if we were trading today we would look to get long above 80.50 and short on a sustained break below 80.40.
June 16 @ 8:08 UTC - we got long on the 4h break above 80.70, first target was hit at 80.95, we tightened the stop to break even and then the pair fell and we exited the trade at break even. So we are back where we started :). We are looking to get long near 80.50 with CP confirmation and targets at 80.75, 81.00, 81.30 and 81.60.
June 15 @ 5:00 UTC - Pair is still consolidating within its wedge between 80.70 and rising trend support (currently around 80.15). Our primary from Monday is the same: “We are looking to get short on a sustained break BELOW the rising trend support (currently around 80.0) with targets down to 79.6 and 79.2″ and we will now also look to take the secondary trade as the pair now appears more bullish than Monday thanks to a successful retest of 80.70 resistance. Secondary trade: aggressive long on a sustained break above 80.70 with targets at 80.95, 81.20, 81.50 and 81.80 for 110 pips.
June 13 @ 10:07 UTC - Pair is forming a wedge between resistance at 80.70 and rising trend support (bottom black line on chart above). We are looking to get short on a sustained break BELOW the rising trend support (currently around 80.0) with targets down to 79.6 and 79.2. There is also an opportunity for an aggressive long on a break above 80.70 but we are not looking to get long on this pair at that price – we will wait for lower stabs where we feel more confident the BoJ will intervene to get long.
June 10 @ 7:33 UTC - We are getting closer to 80.70 – where we have been watching all week for a potential short but bulls collapsed well under 80.50 so we are still flat and will remain that way before the weekend. There is an opportunity to get short at current levels as it appears the bears have broken through a limited consolidation channel leaving a re-challenge of 70.70 as the obvious target.
June 8 @ 9:23 UTC - no change from previous analysis: “pair is treading water as bears/bulls consolidate their respective gains and losses. We are now on the sidelines as the pair gets lower and lower and the chance of BoJ intervention becomes higher and higher. If there is a rise to 80.70 resistance then we will watch CP for bearish confirmations to get short on, targeting 80.20 and 79.70, otherwise we will remain flat until a better opportunity arises.”
June 7 @ 9:16 UTC - pair is treading water as bears/bulls consolidate their respective gains and losses. Yesterday’s trade analysis is still 100% valid: “we are now on the sidelines as the pair gets lower and lower and the chance of BoJ intervention becomes higher and higher. If there is a rise to 80.70 resistance then we will watch CP for bearish confirmations to get short on, targeting 80.20 and 79.70, otherwise we will remain flat until a better opportunity arises.”
June 6 @ 9:31 UTC - We banked good pips off the big UJ drop last week and the pair cooperated nicely, but we are now on the sidelines as the pair gets lower and lower and the chance of BoJ intervention becomes higher and higher. If there is a rise to 80.70 resistance then we will watch CP for bearish confirmations to get short on, targeting 80.20 and 79.70, otherwise we will remain flat until a better opportunity arises.
June 3 @ 7:57 UTC - still flat and still kicking ourselves for not getting a decent entry under 82.00 (where we were looking for one!). We are leaving up the earlier chart to show what we were looking for, but we will remain flat going into the weekend and resume looking for opportunities to get short next week.
June 2 @ 6:08 UTC - Our bearish bias was confirmed yesterday as the pair plummeted down to 80.64 – just below where we were targeting at 80.75. Unfortunately we did not get another entry signal so we were flat through the day. We will look for another rally to 81.50 to get short on for another downside challenge of 80.75. We are also looking for an aggressive long a sustained break below 80.60 for a downside challenge of 80.60. However if the pair closes too far below 80.60 then we will look for a pullback to enter on to get a favorable price.
June 1 @ 9:15 UTC - we took 30 pips off of our primary short yesterday (short between 81.60-82) after two bearish confirmation signals appeared on the 1h charts – bearish doji at 20:00 and shooting star at 21:00. We are currently flat but will look to repeat yesterday’s primary trade if we get a rise: “re-establish a short between current price (81.60) and resistance at 82.00, with targets down to another challenge of 80.75″. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
May 31 @ 10:34 UTC - We got a major break to the downside of our key support level last week and were able to ride it down for good pips. We are now looking to re-establish a short between current price (81.60) and resistance at 82.00, with targets down to another challenge of 80.75. Normally we would hesitate shorting this pair against the BoJ but it has risen enough in recent weeks to carve us a little breathing room against the bank.
May 26 @ 8:34 UTC - got in long as the pair dipped to our primary trade zone yesterday (81.60-81.70) after the 05:00 1h candle just a few hours ago. Saw a pretty quick rise as other traders must have bought into the same support line and closed for a quick 30 pips. We will look to re-establish on another bounce off the trend support line or get short on a break below (see chart arrows above).
May 25 @ 9:29 UTC - we saw a great bounce off rising trend support but just missed out as we were looking for a little bit lower price to get long on. As we always saw – better to miss out then miss your equity! Same trade setups as yesterday: still waiting to get long on a bounce off rising trend support now at 81.60-81.70, or short on a sustained break below 81.50.
May 24 @ 9:25 UTC - We are actually looking to trade UJ for the first time in awhile! We feel the price has risen enough where the threat of a BoJ intervention is lower and there is a clear rising trend support (bottom black line) that we can use as a pivot for any of our trades. The support is currently at 81.50 and a on a sustained break below 81.20 we will look to get short with an eventual target of 80.20. We will also look for short-term longs around 81.55 on bounces off support target 82.00 and 82.50.
May 20 @ 5:57 UTC (updated) - as much as it pains us to begin trading the UJ with the BoJ destroying the free market the pair is actually beginning to look technically bullish and we will begin to look for longs on a dip to rising trend support around 81.00. We will also look to short an overheated rally to 83.25 – though we don’t expect either one of these trades to be activated today as the BoJ has kept a lid on big moved recently.
May 18 @ 8:43 (updated) - BoJ continues to interfere with this pair’s normal market moves and we are flat for the time being. When it gets high enough (82 or so) we will look for a short as the normal market should be able to fight it back down to 80 but until then we remain flat. There are opportunities for aggressive longs on dips to the rising trend support, currently around 80.75.
May 14 @ 8:46 UTC - while we are fundamentally bearish on this pair and remain neutral due to the BoJ’s interference they have been running for the past several weeks our primary trade would be either a) a short near 81.15 on a rise and bearish CP signal with targets down to 80.40 or b) long on a drop to 80.40 support with targets up to 81.15. BoJ has a tight-collar on this pair and that is another reason we are not trading it right now – it takes several weeks just to move a few hundred pips!
May 13 @ 7:32 UTC - we did indeed see the rise and fall we have been waiting for all week. However we already had 3 open positions with EU, GU and Uchf so a) we didn’t want to overexpose ourselves and b) we haven’t been too keen on this pair recently, if you haven’t noticed, thanks to the BoJ interventions. We will look for more opportunities to get short next week, and remain bearish for any traders looking to trade the Friday markets.
May 12 @ 8:23 UTC - no change from yesterday’s late analysis: “We are still on the sidelines because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.50-81.70 is good resistance).”
May 11 @ 18:06 UTC - We are still on the sidelines because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.50-81.70 is good resistance).
May 9 @ 8:00 UTC - *FYI there was a very strong bullish daily signal for this pair today* We aren’t looking to trade this pair right now because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.50-81.70 is good resistance).
May 6 @ 8:32 UTC - *We are not trading today because of Friday-volatility and NFP event risk*. No change from yesterday’s trade “idea” - We aren’t looking to trade this pair right now because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.70 is good resistance), but the conservative strategy is to stand aside today.
May 5 @ 7:03 UTC - no change from yesterday’s trade “idea” - We aren’t looking to trade this pair right now because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.25 is good resistance).” The only part that has changed is that 80.70 is now resistance.
May 4 @ 7:49 UTC - UJ has been consolidated in a tight range yesterday between 81.10-80.80 for the most part. We aren’t looking to trade this pair right now because of the strict control BoJ has over it, or rather the uncertainty that the BoJ interjects into any short we might take. Technically the pair is bearish so if we were looking to trade UJ it would be to short rallies with bearish CP confirmation (81.25 is good resistance).
May 3 @ 7:55 UTC - if you took our aggressive short from last week (we didn’t) you’d be a whopping 30 pips in the profit right now. There was a discussion going on in the chat room about trading this pair, and our feelings can be summed up as follows: technically it is bearish, and if we were trading we would look for opportunities to sell. The problem is that the BoJ is lurking around the lows like a shark ready to knock speculators (that’s us) out of the market. So will pass, but for those brave souls out there our preferred strategy would be to sell on rises and good CP bearish signals.
April 29 @ 6:06 UTC - UJ has went exactly nowhere yesterday, bouncing around in a tight range between 81.40-81.60 for the past 12 hours. Normally we would say this creates a breakout scenario but with the BoJ looming like a shark beneath the short-waters we will pass on this trading setup, especially on a Friday.
April 28 @ 7:24 UTC - Price finally broke through the 4h falling trend resistance yesterday and rose for +100 pips. We remained flat because of the reasons mentioned yesterday and are flat currently, however there does exist an opportunity for an aggressive long around current price action (~81.60) as the pair re-tests the former falling trend line. We will not take this trade as part of this conservative signal because of a) we are seeing broad USD bearishness these past few days and b) the sudden ascent makes us think this latest rise was caused by the BoJ and therefor the break is not on fundamentally sound ground. Any longs from the current area would target 81.95, 82.20, 82.50 and 82.80 for ~120 pips.
April 27 @ 8:45 UTC - our tight stop get tripped yesterday for a small loss of 20 pips. We will remain flat today because of the dual risk of BoJ intervention and FOMC rate volatility (we can only battle one central bank at a time :) but remain bearish and aggressive traders can look around 81.80 for good resistance trades.
April 26th @ 8:14 UTC - we scalped a few pips on the bounce off resistance from yesterday’s analysis but did not capture the ride down as there was never any decent 1h or 4h confirmation in CP. Oh well – the most we would have been able to capture so far would be about 60 pips or so. We have an aggressive long around current levels (81.60) on some bullish CP signals but our stop is tight beneath 81.40 with a target challenging the 82.1 resistance again, where we will look for another short opportunity. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
April 25 @ 8:35 UTC - UJ has formed a bit of a downward channel and is very close to current resistance around 82.30. We will look to take an aggressive short around this level with good CP confirmation, but will keep the stop tight as the trade is in constant risk of the BoJ intervening. Short targets at 82.00, 81.75, 81.50 and 81.20.
April 21 @ 7:35 UTC - CandlePRO has been doing a great job leading the way on this pair. The only bullish signals we saw around 82.7 were both extremely weak both in formation strength and profit factor on the 1h charts. The 4h signals were all bearish and were pretty strong signals at that. For example there was a 4h Three Inside Down that opened at 08:00 with a 77% formation strength and a 3.55 Profit Factor! Not a good signal to bet against. In normal markets we might have gone short on that signal, but with the BoJ sitting on the other side of the table with an infinite stack of chips we decided to pass. While we believe the charts to be bearish technically we will remain flat for the reasons listed below – we don’t want to be caught in a short the next time the BoJ prints a trillion yen to trade for dollars. For those aggressive traders out there a rise to 82.50 would be a nice spot to get short with confirmation.
April 20th @ 6:19 UTC - Any scalpers taking the sustained break above the 10-EMA on 4h charts are at least 30 in the profit right now (trade suggestion from yesterday) and we are now looking to get long again on price indication that the pair is beginning to turn upward. There are support levels at 82.7 and 82.3 and we will watch for both CP bullish signals.
April 19th @ 9:50 UTC - no real change from April 19th’s analysis: “Though we think this pair has plenty of fundamentals to drive a drop (e.g. repatriation flows) we are starting to get that area where we feel going short is a bit like playing with BoJ fire.” the 10-EMA on the 4h charts is being heavily respected by price action and scalpers could look to get in there on small tf signals (or go long on a break above).
April 18 @ 8:09 UTC - Moving our aggressive short down to 84.00 (last analysis) paid off as the pair the pair started spitting out consecutive 1h bearish signals (including a high profit factor bearish doji at 12:00 followed by a 13:00 Three Inside Down on April 13 right after our analysis) around 84.00 that made for a 100 pip drop before the weekend. Though we think this pair has plenty of fundamentals to drive a drop (e.g. repatriation flows) we are starting to get that area where we feel going short is a bit like playing with BoJ fire. We will sit on the sidelines for today, at least, and see what tomorrow’s chart brings us. Leaving last week’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
April 13 @ 5:05 UTC - We were not able to get short again yesterday so we remain flat on the pair. We are moving our aggressive short down to 84.00 for the day which coincides with our 10-EMA shown on the chart above – we will look to get short below this level on a CandlePRO signal and keep our SL tight above.
April 12 @ 9:20 UTC - great 100+ short on the sustained break below 84.50 yesterday. The 1h closed just a few pips below 84.50 enabling us to get a good price on the short and the pair quickly dropped down below 83.50. Pair is rising again and their is an opportunity for another short around 84.50 with confirmation though we will go in with only a single lot as we don’t want to be against the BoJ for too long ;). We are leaving yesterday’s chart open to show what we are looking for.
April 11 @ 11:52 UTC - we have been flat on this pair since our short got stopped out early last week and for the past few days price action has been bouncing between 85.50 and 84.50 – setting up a possible breakout situation. While the preferred direction from this breakout is to the upside we will look at a sustained break below 84.50 as bearish and a sustained break above 85.50 as bullish. There also exists some opportunity to trade within the range with candlestick confirmation (e.g. scalp the levels going long above 84.50 and short below 85.50).
April 6 @ 8:38 UTC - we were stopped out on our UJ trade yesterday as the BoJ continued the rally of the pair. We think they are trying to scare any sellers out of the market and, so far, they are doing a great job. While we think this pair is overbought we are going to step aside until we see some solid daily chart evidence that the bears are returning.
April 5 @ 7:24 UTC - we took a short here at 84.30 for a couple different reasons: 1) 84.50 appears to be holding and have had at least one long daily wick pierce this level and fall back down, indicating selling pressure there, B) with our SL above 84.80 it is pretty easy to get a good reward/risk ratio. The obvious risk is the BoJ intervening but it has gotten high enough in recent days where they might let it slip a little bit before intevening.
April 4 @ 8:53 UTC - we would like to go short now (and there is an aggressive opportunity to do so) but the BoJ just presents too much of an event risk at the moment. We will remain flat for the time being and re-evaluate tomorrow.
April 1 @ 6:20 UTC - we closed our short at 83.40 after 10 candles had elapsed from our entry signal. We still see downside potential as the markets want the yen priced higher, but with potential BoJ intervention presenting a major risk-factor and the weekend looming we didn’t want to push it. We will look to re-evaluate after the weekend and remain flat for now.
Mar 31 @ 7:47 UTC - the setup we’ve been waiting for the BoJ to provide us for weeks has finally arrived: short at 83.00. There was a sweet 4h CP confirmation signal at 04:00 yesterday: a bearish doji with a 6.12 high profit factor, 4.3:1 average RR and 5.8:1 median RR on 14 signals analyzed that was too good to pass up. As mentioned previously our stop is tight as BoJ intervention is a serious concern here that could very easily knock us out of our short. The nuclear situation continues to get worse however and at some point (hopefully this one) we expect the market to re-challenge the BoJ for fair market value of the yen. Leaving up last week’s chart when we started looking for this setup.
Mar 29 @ 6:41 UTC - trade setups are still exactly the same as yesterday as the pair has not moved much due to the BoJ/G7 intervention, however we are adding a setup to the two setups shown on the chart above: opportunity for an aggressive short at 81.90 with good CP confirmation. 81.90 is the underside of the wedge (black lines chart above) and a good technical spot for traders to re-enter short. As always make sure to use a SL – it is doubly important knowing that the BoJ could step in at any moment and shoot the pair up 200+ pips.
Mar 28 @ 8:01 UTC - we were going to update the chart above but the shown trade setups are still our preferred location. The BoJ/G7 is keeping this pair in a tight range (despite the recent rise) and we expect the market to start getting short again around 82.75-83.00
Mar 25 @ 8:52 UTC - flat for the weekend… this pair is going nowhere. The BoJ/G7 have this pair wrapped around their pinky and aren’t letting go anytime soon. Though the 81.30-80.70 might provide a nice breakout scenario above/below next week…
Mar 24 @ 7:33 UTC - We are still right about where we left off on Tuesday so the Bank of Japan / G7 are doing a fine job of rigging their economy at the moment. Pair appears to be turning down in the short-term (currently around 80.80). Tuesday’s setups are still valid so we will leave Tuesday’s chart up above and the analysis below..
Mar 22 @ 8:53 UTC - the G7 has done a good job of stabilizing this pair above 80, but we will look for the market to get short above 82 for a re-challenge of 81 and 80, and we expect the BoJ to get long anywhere around 79 to keep their currency weak enough for their exporters to survive. See chart for graphic representation.
Mar 17 @ 5:47 UTC - Where to begin with UJ… First off we took a loss on our long position yesterday but it could have been a lot worse. We used a 50 pip stop loss (pretty standard for us) but, due to the liquidity problems ended up getting closed out for a 70 pip loss. We were expecting the BoJ to intervene under 80 fairly quickly as they have in the past but we miscalculated. The frustrating part is that the pair has been forming a bearish wedge for weeks now on the weekly charts (thick black lines on chart above) that we’ve been tracking! For any other pair we would have been riding the short for 400 pips but, because we were anticipating the BoJ intervention we traded against our normal philosophy. Lesson learned. Now that the major moves have happened we will stay away from this pair for a bit, except to short on any major rallies as we expect the bearish pressure to continue, but the rally would need to be in the vicinity if 80-81 and have great candlestick confirmation.
Mar 16 @ 7:45 UTC - We did finally get short yesterday after the 02:00 candle pierced above 82.00 and then closed below (false breakout) which was the followed four hours later by a shooting star in CP (06:00 1h). The shooting star itself was not all that impressive stats-wise, but we were itching to get short because of the strong yen-strength and because of the false breakout hours before. We took profit for +80 and are looking to get short again in the 81.50 resistance zone. We will also look to get long near 80.00 on further drops as we believe the BoJ will intervene around this level and shoot the pair up.
Mar 14 @ 19:39 UTC - we should have ignored our own advice and listened to CandlePRO! We circled the two shooting stars on Mar 9, both solid in CP, but then didn’t follow them ourselves because of our fear of over-exposure to USD swings. Well, a 50 pip stop-loss would have been plenty to keep you in the trade for almost 200 pips now. We are currently flat but looking to sell to take advantage of yen strength on repatriation flows into their currency markets. Looking to sell on CP signals around 82-82.50. Leaving Mar 9′s chart up to show the shooting stars we circled.
Mar 9 @ 8:13 UTC - two good shooting stars on 4h charts right now, but we already have two anti-dollar trades open and don’t want to much exposure in case dollar bulls rally.
Mar 8 @ 8:51 UTC - we took a single lot short from 82.50 after a solid CP signal in conjunction with our EURUSD trade to hedge the risk. Targeting the bottom of the channel around 81.80.
Mar 4 @ 8:20 UTC - We are the midpoint of the channel at 82.50 right now, but it is Friday and the daily signal was pretty bullish so we will hold off to see where the pair opens on Monday.
Mar 2, 2011 @ 8:24 UTC - there was actually a strong daily candlestick yesterday (inverted hammer) that CP saw as bullish, but I’m not so sure it isn’t a shooting star. The problem is that there are only two candlesticks before it to go off of. Anyway, when we disagree with CP we usually sit out the fight which is what we did here. We will continue to look for selling opportunities near 82.50 on a strong bearish signal. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
Mar 1, 2011 @ 4:58 UTC - We took some good short pips off this pair last week on the sustained break below 83.00. The pair is bouncing off the bottom of it rising trend support currently (bottom black line on chart above). We are still bearish on this pair and will look for an opportunity to get short again on a rally to the 82.50 resistance zone which is about the midpoint of this consolidation channel. A short from 82.50 would target 81.50 and eventually 80.50.
Feb 25 @ 8:44 UTC - We finally got our 4h sustained break of 83.00 on the 08:00 GMT candle (closed 09:00) of Feb 22 – pretty shortly after our Feb 22 analysis. Luckily it also close very close to 83.00 so we did not miss out on much of the drop by waiting for the sustained break and we were able to ride it all the way down to 81.75 after the 4h kicked up a decent bullish doji on Feb 24 at 16:00 for a decent 120 pips. We are flat before the weekend but will leave the Feb 22 chart up to show what we were looking for.
Feb 22 @ 7:58 UTC - got a break (big drip down to 82.80) but it was not sustained and quickly shot up above 83.00. We are flat on this pair at the moment, but would still take a short below 83.00 *sustained* if the opp presented itself.
Feb 21 @ 9:24 UTC - We took profit on our short from last week as the pair has been meeting support around 83.00 and appears to have possible formed a top at 84.00 in the short-term. To complete the reversal pattern we need a sustained break below 83.00 where we will look to get short again with targets at 82.50 and 82.00 over the week.
Feb 17 @ 9:02 UTC - we are back to break even on this trade now after barely surviving the rally. We’ll leave our stop just above 84.00 for the moment as it is still a rather tight stop with a good RR ratio. Leaving yesterday’s cahrt up to show what we were looking at.
Feb 16 @ 8:25 UTC - Our short from 83.50 is hanging on by a thread at the moment but we are keeping it open despite the rise above falling trend support. That is the nice thing about UJ – even the breakouts don’t move enough to kill your stops in this BoJ-controlled market :). We are looking for a re-challenge of the 82.50 area as our first target.
Feb 15 @ 9:11 UTC - we’ve been watching this pair ping pong between falling trend resistance and rising trend support since late 2010 (take a look at the black lines above and then read the analysis below), and the pair is currently around 83.50. We did take a single lot short at 83.50 on daily hanging man with targets around 82.50 for 100 pips profit. Only a single lot though as the pair has been flirting very strongly with that top falling resistance after a very strong bullish movement.
Feb 10 @ 7:09 UTC - Pair is right smack in the middle of its two support/resistance trend lines which are slowly closing in on itself in a long, drawn-out triangular consolidation pattern. There is a an aggressive short opportunity here (middle trend resistance line) but the reward/risk ratios just aren’t there – down to the bottom of the pattern around 81.50 is only 90 pips away but the pair is technically bearish under its longer term trend resistance line around 83.50. We will wait for an opportunity to sell around 83.50 or buy around 81.50.
Feb 9 @ 9:17 UTC - We did indeed see the break below 82.15 which led to a ~40 pip drop, but the pair quickly reversed and is now trading above 83.50 (the resistance level we were watching). We are flat and will remain flat on this pair for a bit until a clear trend is established. Leaving yesterday’s chart up to show what we were looking for.
Feb 8 @ 6:56 UTC - Pair did indeed bounce hard off of rising trend support just hours after our Feb 4 analysis where we were looking for a bounce. The pair is currently consolidating in a tight 82.15-82.45 range and we expect any sustained breaks above/below these levels to continue – e.g. a break above 82.55 to lead to 83.00 and 83.50, while a break below will lead to another challenge of daily rising trend support around 81.50. Both directions offer good reward/risk ratios though we give a slight edge to the bulls as the USD has been strong this week thus far and the 4h picture presents as a bit of a bullish flag with bullish consolidation pattern.
Feb 4 @ 8:18 UTC - Closed out this week’s short for around 50 pips. Pair is now at rising trend support and we will look into establish a long early next week. CP kicked off a good daily signal on Wednesday for those watching that would have netted 50 pips the next day alone, with possibly more to come as the pair bounces off this rising trend support. Leaving this week’s chart up from Monday to show what we were looking for.
Feb 2 @ 8:49 UTC - Support broke and our long got stopped for a small loss. We stop and reversed below the support level which is now about 50 pips in the profit (we are leaving Monday’s chart up so you can see what we were looking for/at). The problem with UJ these days is that (thanks to BoJ intervention to stabilize the exchange rate) even breakouts hardly move the pair more than 50 or so pips these days. In effect we are investigating raising our lot level per trade with this pair.
For those not in any trade 81.90 now is resistance and would be our next area of resistance where we would look for shorts.
Jan 31st @ 9:32 UTC - Pair is at the fourth re-challenge of 82.00 of January – the previous three times has sparked a major bullish movement (BoJ intervention probably) and as long as this levels holds we will remain short-term bullish with targets of a re-challenge of 83.00.
Jan 28th @ 5:24 UTC - Our long from 82.40 got +80 in the green and we closed out at +60. This after the trade almost got stopped out earlier this week. Flat for now until a new trend line establishes itself, though the pair appears slightly bullish. Today is Friday so any trade should be viewed as riskier.
Jan 27th @ 7:50 a UTC - Still long from the 25th, our SL within a hair of getting triggered, now -15 pips. Leaving the chart from the 25th up to show what we were looking at/for.
Jan 25th @ 6:54a UTC - After another drop we are taking a single lot long from the 82.40 support (former trend resistance), with a SL hidden under 82 and a target (for now) at 83.5 for a re-challenge of resistance.
Jan 24th @ 7:20a UTC - Flat all of last week; we finally saw a break to the bearish channel the pair had been in for weeks, though it was to the topside. UJ has really seemed pretty dead recently. Even these big “breaks” are no more than 70 pips or so, before a correction takes place. Difficult for long-term traders to make any good number of pips when there is no movement, but ideal for scalpers looking to shave a few pips at a time with the reduced risk of a low-volatility pair. Makes us wonder if the BoJ isn’t intervening to steady the exchange rate… Remaining flat until we can make some good, long-term pips.
Jan 20 @ 8:56a UTC - Still flat, with trade setups from Jan 19 still valid (channel trading).
Jan 19 @ 9:04a UTC - UJ has been in a solid downtrend for a couple weeks, but unfortunately has not moved enough to get a decent risk/reward trade out of it. That being said there are plenty of opportunities here for short-term traders to take short positions off of another rally to 82.5 or on a sustained break below 82.00. For a longer-term trade we will remain flat.
NOTE: Due to the server restore we had to do the posts between Jan 9th-Jan 19th are lost forever :( – unless a diligent PipHutter copied them down somewhere!
Jan 7 @ 6:59a UTC - The closest CP got to a bearish signal near 82.5 was a 30m and 1h (a few hours after signal was posted) – both around 82.1. A bit too far away for our taste and either one would end up as a loss (though with 82.5 double-top neckline providing a great place to hide a stop probably not a big one). The bullish break above the neckline, however, did produce quite a pop for any stop-and-reverse traders or false breakout traders trading along with the USD-strength theme. We did not take it but with price currently around 83.5 the pop above 82.5 is already +100. Given the news volatility today we will wait until Monday for higher-probability setups and calmer markets where technical analysis generally works better.
Jan 5 @ 9:12a UTC - We see a double top in the UJ over the past couple months with the two tops peaking around 84.5 and the neckline at 82.5. After the initial break of the neckline last week we saw a healthy 200 pip drop, almost all of which has been erased by a USD rally in the past three days. However this is still a bearish technical break, and that coupled with a various sentiment/position indicators that show retail traders heavily long the UJ pair (contrarian indicator) is enough of a reason for us to look for short opportunities near 82.5 on strong CP signals with targets down to 81.5, 81.0 and 80.50.
Jan 3 2011 - Happy New Year! Bank Holidays in numerous countries today (UK, Australia, Japan, some French banks, etc) so no PRO analysis – markets are too thin for any good analysis/trading in our opinion. CandlePRO will continue to turn out signals, as always, and you can view all bank holidays here. We look forward to an exciting and pip-filled new year with you!
Dec 20-24th - No PRO analysis this week due to holidays and illiquid markets, but CandlePRO will continue to function as normal! When markets have this low of volume (due to traders being gone for the rest of the year) then markets tend to behave in strange ways and are difficult to predict in the short-term. If you do choose to trade we recommend you trade even more conservatively than normal! In general we are bullish on the USD as risk-aversion continues to be the dominant theme. Keep an eye on your emails for the new PRO Scoreboard feature and we’ll see you in 2011! – PipHut
Dec 16th @ 7:04a UTC - We saw resistance and lots of bearish pressure (as expected) under 84.25-84.50 and a drop of 140+ pips from Monday. However there was not much confirmation for the trade in CP or otherwise so we stayed flat (better to miss out than miss your equity!). The USD now looks to be gaining strength and I expect 84.50 to be broken to the upside before the end of the week.
Dec 13th @ 7:38a UTC - I unfortunately stayed on the sideline of last week’s great bullish UJ breakout above the 83.2 resistance because the technical picture called for a short-term drop. No trade is always better than a losing trade though and, as I say, better to miss out than to miss your equity. We are fast approaching on the 84.25-84.50 resistance zone, however, and there is another opportunity to short here on a good CP signal. I will keep it to a single lot (bulls have been strong recently so it is a bit more aggressive than I would like) and will look to do a stop and reverse long on a sustained break above 84.60.
Dec 9 @ 8:47a UTC - If you took the topside break from Monday’s setup (see chart above) then you are 100+ in the profit. I stayed on the sidelines as my analysis called for a bearish break, not a bullish one. Better to miss out then miss your equity ;). Next strong resistance is at 84.35, but I am done with this pair for the week.
Dec 6 @ 9:53a - Pretty self-explanatory chart: we are in a bit of a consolidation period (ranging) between 82.5 and 83.2. There is some opportunity for scalping around those S/R levels, but I will wait for a break to the downside of 82.5 to start shorting with targets down to 81.5 and 81 over the week. I’m looking for a downside break as I expect USD weakness this week. Short from last week hit the stop (which had been moved to lock in profit on Dec 1 update). On a side note there was a great shorting opp last week as the pair broken its downside channel and then produced a 130+ pip drop the next day (Friday).
Dec 1 @ 9:03a UTC - Currently long from Tuesday’s trade (below) from 83.57 after a bullish 1h doji (Dec 1 @ 2:00a) and a bullish 1h inverted hammer (Dec 1 @3:00a). About +40 in profit now and stop has been moved to 83.6 to lock in profit.
November 29th @ 8:23a UTC: The USD/JPY offers perhaps the most compelling trade opportunity early in the week as the pair has been caught in a bullish channel for weeks now, we just had another bullish break above 83.50 and overall we expect USD strength to continue. I will look to enter long above 83.50, former support and now resistance, on a good CP signal with an open target.
6:57a UTC, November 26 2010: We’ve been booking profit off of the short bounce of the 61.8% retracement (83.8) all week, though we are now looking for renewed USD strength as the pair breaks above. We are looking for the top of the bullish channel to be challenged around 84.5 *currently*, though we will remain flat before the weekend and in these thin markets.
Recap: UJ has been one of our most reliable pairs for months now, steadily dropping over 1000 pips as traders dare the Bank of Japan to intervene to weaken the yen (to help exports, basically). If you sold nearly any rally you would have left with a profitable trade, but certain candlesticks have been more profitable than others. Specifically shooting stars and SMALL dojis have been great CandlePRO signals to sell over the weeks, while hanging men have been INEFFECTIVE as shorting signals.
Yesterday PRO Performance
Pair Result EURUSD No trades AUDUSD -6 pips GBPUSD No trades USDCHF No trades USDJPY No trades Daily Total: -6 pips Feb 2012 664 pips Mar 2012 755 pips Apr 2012 297 pips May 2012 (mtd) 14 pips *Signal results from 2012-05-16. Looking for month-by-month performance breakdown?
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