Recap:

Daily Outlook: Since its Friday (probably the worst day of the week to trade, at least for me) I will not be trading, but I still wanted to offer my analysis and a trading idea or two for any brave souls out there. First lets take a look at the daily chart (top right, click to make it bigger). You can see we’ve had a very strong downtrend since early December – it’s dropped over 1600 pips! Currently though we are in a bullish correction pattern (channel in between the blue lines, red support trend is possible support). This is why I check the daily analysis as part of my trade plan every day: 1) to see if there were any obvious candlestick patterns that might give an indication to the next day’s direction and 2) to look at the overall pattern. All those little red lines in there are horizontal support/resistance lines on the 1-hour charts – they don’t seem as sturdy on the daily charts do they?

More to the point for today is that we are just hovering around that bottom rising trend support line right now. Which gives us to clear trades: a long on confirmation signal if price fails to break 1.3590 again or a short if we have a sustained break below 1.3585 (I look for a close on the 1h or 4h charts).

Trading Idea: Long on another failure of 1.3590 with targets at 1.3620, 1.3650, 1.3690. Short on a sustained break of 1.3580 with targets at 1.3555, 1.3530 and 1.3505. Reminder – I’m not trading as its Friday and I’m looking forward to a three-day weekend ;). Happy pipping!

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Daily Bullish Correction
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

Recap:

Daily Outlook: All and all the bears were able to win the day, dropping the pair about 90 pips from high to low and about 20 pips on open to close. We’re currently approaching interday rising trend support and a 61.8 fibonacci retracement as we speak, an area that I will look for a potential buying zone. A sustained break below would probably lead to a challenge of longer term rising trend support and is another area I will look for longs.

Trading Idea: More conservative trade is long from rising trend support at 1.3650. Preferred targets from 1.3655 are 1.3690, 1.3720 and 1.3750. More aggressive trade is long from 1.3700 rising trend support with targets at 1.3725, 1.3750, 1.3775 and 1.3800.

Happy pipping ;)

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Approaching Dual Supports
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

First off a reminder – forex is a tough gig and it is stacked against beginners in a lot of different ways. I’ve never sugarcoated that with anyone and never will. I get lots of emails each day: lots thanking me, some telling me horror stories about how they took some else’s signal without a stop-loss or an ill-advised trade on a whim and now their account is empty. Still other emails that ask me to provide my personal trades – even offering to pay me for them! And I’ve addressed that question before but I think it is worth discussing again because the point behind it is important. I can understand why this would be tempting in the short-term, basically having someone else trade for you, but it is really not doing you any favors in the long-run. You all know I love analogies so lets talk about sailing.

Trading Forex is a lot like competitive sailing – really!

There are different wind patterns (or trends). You have to adjust your technique whether you are going with the wind or against it. On top of wind you have to add currents into the mix. You have to know all the parts of the sailboat, know how to operate different tools and machines in case something goes wrong. Then there is the depth of the water, the height of the waves, etc etc. And in competitive sailing there are dozens of others boats in the water with you. Now take that and multiply it by a LOT. At any given time there are literally thousands of different things influencing the markets. Would you expect to be a world-class sailor in a couple of days of practicing in your plastic dryboat? Of course not! And if someone else says “today the wind is blowing south: you need to use this much sail, tack at X degrees and bring these tools” that’s great and that helps – but what if that person is no longer around to help? Or what if the wind changes direction mid-voyage and that helper is onshore, not able to give you directions? That’s why PipHut’s signals are designed to help you trade for yourself, not trade for you :). I hope that makes sense.

I don’t tell you this to scare you (well maybe a little), but I just always want to remind people every now again that there is a lot that you don’t know. And that I don’t know. You and I constantly have to be learning and improving ourselves and, most importantly, keeping our equity alive to trade another day! Well I could go on for pages about this but let me point you very quickly to some (I think) helpful articles I’ve written in the past. Hopefully these articles will give a few of you some helpful hints to get you over the hump:

Money Management the PipHut way
Win More Trades
How to Succeed in the Forex Market
Achieve Forex Success in 2010 – this one is almost more of a warning/inspirational note!

and of course:

FAQ for PipHut’s Signals
READ ME: How to Use PipHut’s free signals

and by the way, journalling is one of the best things I ever did for my trading. Every trade I took I would save a screenshot of my chart, type up my rationale for entering the trade and my stop-loss and targets. Kudos to the people who are still doing that in the forums.

Recap: Our conservative trade was never reached yesterday and I personally never took the aggressive sell. As I mentioned in the comments fields the bulls had pushed the pair up 70+ pips in a few hours with the largest lower wick only 7 pips! The only thing aggressive about that at that time were the bulls and I didn’t want to stand in front of a freight train. For those who did, as always, I hope you used good money management and of course stop losses!

Daily Outlook: Well another bullish day on top of an already bullish forecast? That’s right – I’m long hunting! As you can see from the chart there are two rising trend supports to look for and some fibonacci levels. My preference for today is the 61.8% fibonacci, currently just above 1.3690. 1.3800 is the key short term resistance and I would consider selling buying a break above this level.

Trading Idea: Primary trade is a long in the vicinity of 1.3690 (61.8% fib), preferably near rising trend support. Targets from 1.3690 are 1.3725, 1.3750, 1.3775 and 1.3800. A secondary trade is to sell a break of the important resistance at 1.3800.

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Trading Tips; Bulls Advance
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

Recap:

Daily Outlook: The pair is more or less ranging at the moment as traders attempt to digest the complex fundamental environment. As most know I view the short-term bullish technicals as a retracement and expect the USD to resume its gains in the longer term picture. We do have some major news events tomorrow that could help shape the market – the largest of which is the USD interest rate decision at 19:15 gmt along with the FOMC minute. Analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged but the FOMC minutes could go a long way to putting the USD back on its bullish path (e.g. depending on how strong they describe the US economy’s growth, this could be taken as evidence that the Fed will raise rates .75 points by year’s end). Read more about the news events at the Forex Calendar here.

Technically the picture is mixed but more short term bullish than bearish.

Trading Idea: My primary trade is the same as yesterday: a long from rising trend support currently at 1.3600. Preferred targets from this area are 1.3625, 1.3660, 1.3690. However if the pair rises before sinking I will consider a more aggressive short (with confirmation) in the 1.3700-1.3725 resistance zone. Ideally in that setup the pair would continue to trickle upwards before kicking a shooting star or other bearish candlestick. Short targets from 1.3700 are 1.3670, 1.3640 and 1.3610.

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Approaching Support; No Clear Trend
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

Recap:

Daily Outlook: The war of words between China and US about the yuan’s pegging failed to start the market off with a bang and fundamentally, as the pair has been for weeks now, traders are seeking direction. In fact in light of the mixed (short-term) fundamentals I view the breakout on Friday as less of a breakout and more that the pair has found a decent fair market value – i.e a range.

Technically though it was a very bullish break especially in combination with the triple dojis on the weekly charts and, if I enter the market, it will be in the form of a long. A setup I will watch closely is a dip to the (former) resistance between 1.3660 and 1.3690. The more conservative trade is the dip to support trend line (bottom blue line on the bottom of the chart).

Trading Idea: Primary strategy is to watch a dip to rising support, currently around 1.3600. If it reaches this level it will be a 130+ pip drop and near the pair’s maximum range recently. From 1.3600 long targets are 1.3625, 1.3655 and 1.3690. The more aggressive setup, if it presents itself is to buy on a dip to 1.3660-1.3690 support range (ideally it would also touch former daily resistance trend currently at 1.3680). Long targets from 1.3660 are 1.3690, 1.3730, and 1.3760.

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Bulls Make a Run For It
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

Yesterday Recap

Daily Outlook: Here we are finally at 1.3700 (after 3 days of waiting) and, unfortunately the price has drifted so far that the technical picture is not as short term bearish as it once was. The price broke through the hourly falling trend resistance yesterday (a bullish sign) but left the daily trend resistance intact (a bearish sign) which is the top blue trend line on the graph below. We have also had two consecutive days of higher highs and higher lows. Toss the bullish candlesticks we’ve had the past few weeks on the weekly charts and their is ample reason to be looking for longs. Which leads me to my strategy to close out the week: given the mixed signals as to the trend I will continue to look for short confirmation candles at 1.3700 and (more importantly) at the daily resistance of 1.3740. But I will also be on the lookout for long opportunities in a return to 1.3625 support.

Trading Idea: It is Friday and we do have USD news (check the forex calendar for more details) coming out at 13:30 GMT so conservative trades are my preferred route today. Primary trade is a short in the area of falling trend resistance around 1.3740, with targets at 1.3710, 1.3680 and 1.3645 OR a long in the vicinity of 1.3625 support with candlestick confirmation. Bull targets from there are 1.3650, 1.3680 and 1.3710. A more aggressive trade (not my cup of tea on Fridays) would be a short at 1.3700 with targets down to 1.3600.

Happy trading today PipHutters and thanks for being such a great community to work with!

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Week of Mixed Signals
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

Yesterday Recap:

Daily Outlook: Despite the large up and down swing the daily outlook didn’t change a bit – the pair continues to consolidate in a tight triangle pattern with the overall downtrend still intact. I will look for a false breakout to occur to the topside, possibly even challenge the stronger falling trend resistance on the daily charts (you can just see the top of it – its the top blue line) currently around 1.3700.

Trading Idea: Not as aggressive today as we are running out of room to maneuver in this pattern. Primary trade is a short on a signal under 1.3700 resistance, with targets at 1.3670, 1.3640, 1.3605 and eventually 1.3560. Secondary trade is a bearish break of 1.3620 support could trigger a run to the trend support again (currently at 1.3570).

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Breakout Trade
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

Yesterday Recap:

Daily Outlook: Luckily there are some interesting times ahead for our favorite pair and a lot of different trading scenarios today! As you can see on the 4-hour chart (now to the upper right and with a pretty watermark when you click on it) the pair is forming a triangle consolidation pattern. This consolidation is a perfect example of how technicals mirror the fundamental world:  the market is trying to figure out how to deal with the Greek (and Portugal, and Spain, and….) issue. If Greece defaults because it can’t fund its debt, to what extent will the EU step in? And then if Portugal defaults, will the monetary fractures in Europe be too deep to fix? I can’t blame the Germans for not wanting to finance Greece’s bad planning.

Trading Idea: I’ve got quite a few options laid out on the day. First I can look to range trade between the bands (i.e. sell falling trend resistance currently at 1.3685  and buy at the rising support currently at 1.3550). Second option is to wait for the market to provide a hint and sell/buy a breakout (sell if 1.3650 is broken and buy if 1.3700 is broken). Third option, and the most aggressive by far, is to take advantage of the mini consolidation pattern forming on the 30m and 1hr charts currently (see second chart down on right hand side). As you can see we’ve had a nice tight range pattern within the overall triangle between 1.3585- 1.3615.  The aggressive trade would be to buy an upside break of this pattern’s resistance (1.3620) and to sell a break of the support (1.3580). Warning on the aggressive trade: it is riskier and I wouldn’t try if if you don’t know what you are doing! Also given the positioning the upside is slightly favored and has more room to move for an upside break.

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Breakout Showdown Looming
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

Daily Outlook: The pair continues to consolidate in the1.3750-1.3450 range, coming closer and closer to our key falling trend resistance dating back to early December 2009. The last time this resistance was tested (January 13th) the pair flirted with the resistance a few times before ultimately plummeting over 900 pips. Also reinforcing the bearish picture is that bulls were unable to sustain their new rally, failing to make a new high on the day or even sustain their gains (in fact the day ended as a bearish candle with a long bearish wick).

Trading Idea: I will look to sell a challenge of this trend resistance line, currently between 1.3700-1.3730. From 1.3730 the short targets are 1.3700, 1.3665, 1.3625 and 1.3595.

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Slowly Approaching Key Resistance
Forex signals from: PipHut.com

Spurring the risk-taking was a speech by the French President offering support for France and saying, resolutely but still lacking any detail, that Europe was ready to support Greece with billions in aid. This sort of “blank check” support could drive risk taking (and the Euro) in the short term but any sign of dissension out of Germany should send the pair back to the depths.

Daily Outlook: short term outlook is bullish, longer-term outlook is bearish. A glance at the daily chart will show that the pair has been in a free fall since early December – a drop of almost 2000 pips since the Dec 3 high of 1.5400. We at PipHut have been selling all the way down and booking great pips as a result, but with the short-term picture a little murkier I will be going with the more conservative trades while still looking to fade rallies. The most obvious point of resistance is the falling trend resistance on the daily charts (connect Dec 3, 2009 high and Jan 14 high) that has not been broken in 2010.

Trading Idea: I will be looking in the resistance zone just below that falling trend line, between 1.3730-1.3750. Short targets from 1.3750 are 1.3715, 1.3680, 1.3650 and 1.3625. A much more aggressive move would be to look for a long in the 1.3585-1.3565 support zone to capitalize on short term bull trend, with longs targeting up to a re-challenge 1.3700.

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Source: Forex Signals – EUR/USD Caution Ahead
Forex signals from: PipHut.com