EUR/USD Elliot Wave

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EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Tue Jan 19, 2010 12:09 pm

Hi all,

Here is my current daily chart for EUR/USD (1/19/2010). Looks as though wave 2 may have completed and we're in for the ride down to around 1.31. Let me know what you piphutters think.
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piphut elliot wave.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Sat Jan 30, 2010 3:30 pm

It looks as though the wave count is tracking. I have uploaded my most recent chart and as you can see wave 3 is a 5 wave impulse wave on the daily chart which should conclude somewhere around 1.350. Wave 4 should retrace to Fib level 61.8 or possible 50.0. Wave 5 should then conclude near 1.300
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piphut elliot wave ii.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:39 pm

This is my latest daily chart. I have tried to guess where the waves will eventually end up. Wave three is usually the strongest of the 3 waves in the direction of the impulse (trend). It appears as though it is unfolding as a five impulse wave.
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piphut elliot wave iia.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby markelshark » Fri Feb 05, 2010 3:05 am

Great charts Craig. Keep up the good work!
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm

Thanks Mark, I plan to keep this up as it helps me keep track of the trend. I still have a long way to go as far a being a trader, however, PipHut has definitely helped me gain confidence and practice more patience. For this I am very grateful. Thanks for the awesome site. :D
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Tue Mar 09, 2010 11:30 am

Hi Everyone,

Sorry it has been a while since my last post. I am a nursing student and it takes an incredible amount of time. Since I am now on spring break I did have time to check out the EUR/USD and update my analysis. It looks as though we may have completed wave 4 and are getting ready to start wave 5. Wave 5 should conclude around the 1.2800 area and will more than likely unfold in a 5 wave pattern in and of itself.

Take care,

Craig
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piphut elliot wave iib.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:52 am

Hi Everyone,

Wow, it is hard to believe it has been so long since I last posted! I did finally graduate from nursing school and and glad the first part of that journey is over. Now for the good stuff, in my chart you can see that leg one of the five wave impulse move down is in place at 1.1870. We have now completed both wave a and wave b of a three wave retracement. Wave c should complete around the 50% Fibonacci line which is at the 1.35 level. At this point the retracement should be complete and the downtrend should resume with this being leg three the most powerful of the five impulse waves. This being said I am bullish on the pair until it reaches the 1.35 level at which point I will be looking for shorting opportunities all the way down to below 1.00. Once wave three starts in earnest I will give a better target for completion of wave three. Happy pip hunting all and take care!

P.S. The 1.35 level will determine if we are in a major downtrend or if a reversal has taken place. A sustained break above this level would indicate that the downtrend was completed in five waves and the new reversal will be a five wave structure also. Either way, we should be looking for longs until price reaches 1.35, after which, we need to determine if a reversal has indeed occurred.
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piphut elliot wave 0902.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Fri Sep 17, 2010 1:21 pm

Hello All, Well, so far the pair has continued to move higher as predicted by Elliot Wave analysis. I have taken a closer look and it now seems that the completion of wave 2 (wave 2 consists of three waves) in the major downtrend that started December 2009 should be closer to the 1.40 area which is Fibonacci 1.618 of the first wave of the retracement. However, there is very strong resistance at the 1.272 Fibonacci level which is at 1.37 give or take a few pips. A break of this level will keep me looking for longs up to the 1.40 area. So for now keep looking to go long at least until we reach 1.37. A sustained break of this level will open the door to 1.40, at which point, caution is advised until it is determined if wave 2 is in fact complete and we are ready to enter major wave 3 in the downtrend. This wave would move the EUR/USD close to parity (1.00 level) or slightly below. What a ride it would be! Take care and happy trading!
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:10 pm

Hi Everyone, As you can see from the attached chart the pair continues its bullish posture. We continue to retrace the bearish cycle trend with wave c of the three wave retracement currently forming. Wave c usually extends to 1.618 (golden number) of wave a. As mentioned above, we are currently in an Elliot Wave Cycle meaning it usually lasts for a minimum of one year but can last for several years. All this being said, the current wave c should complete around 1.4222. It is here that we should see wave 3 of the cycle downtrend start. This will be a five wave impulse move lower and should be 1.618 (or greater) of wave 1. If all holds true, this will be the total of wave 1 and wave 2 (1 + 2 = 3). This is of course a perfect world scenario, possible but who knows for sure! I will not give that projection yet as wave 2 is still in progress. Safe to say though, that it should bring the pair back to 1:1 or slightly below that level depending on where wave 2 (a,b,c retracement) finally concludes.
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piphut elliot wave 0922.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:15 pm

Hi Everyone,

Price action continues as predicted by Elliot wave analysis. We are still in wave c of the three wave retracement of downtrend wave 1 of an Elliot wave cycle. As stated above we should see conclusion of the retracement around the 1.4222 area; however, we are now nearing strong resistance in the 1.37 area and need to be cautious at this point with fairly tight stop losses (minimum of 50 pips). As you can see in the attached chart we definitely have bullish momentum at this time with no sign of weakening. Wave c is a five wave impulse wave and is currently forming wave 3 of 5. Soon we should see conclusion of wave 3, my guess is around the strong 1.37 resistance level. From here we should see some pullback to form wave 4. This will be a good entry point for wave 5 which we should see conclude around 1.4222. The closer we get to the target of 1.4222 the more cautious we need to be.

Happy trading and take care

Craig
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elliot wave 3-30-12 (1).gif
Last edited by Craig on Fri Mar 30, 2012 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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