EUR/USD Elliot Wave

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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Thu Oct 14, 2010 11:13 am

Hi Everyone,

As you can see from current price action in the pair we continue on to the target of 1.4222. As Mark pointed out today in his analysis, we also need to keep an eye on the GBP/USD and the AUD/USD pairs for an indication when to exit any longs on the EUR/USD pair. This could come sooner then the target so please be careful and have your stops in place. The pair seems to be running out of bullish steam and we should see the start of wave three in the major downtrend that started last December to resume soon. This move should take us to below parity, but we must be patient and wait for the turn, not try to predict it.

Take care all,

Craig
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Fri Oct 22, 2010 11:22 am

Hi all,

Things have come to somewhat of a standstill the past several days. We are at a very interesting point in the pair right now. As you can see on the attached chart a wedge pattern is forming on the 4 hr chart. We still have the target of 1.4222 in sight and it is still a possibility we will reach it if not go a little beyond. However, the retrace of the major downtrend that started last December is running out of steam. It is always possible that we have topped out and that the downtrend is set to resume. It is also possible that we are just consolidating prior to the next move up. Elliot Wave supports this theory at the present moment. As you can see on the chart wave three has completed and a three wave retracement is also now complete. Which would be the completion of wave four. Now we are in the final wave of the retracement which will more than likely unfold as an impulse wave and complete above the original target of 1.4222. It is important to remember that at anytime this could change so we should be conservative in our trading over the next several days until a clear direction is established.

Happy trading all and take care,

Craig
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piphut elliot wave 1022.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:03 pm

Hi Everyone,

Just a quick note. We continue on with the retrace in the pair. I have not updated my chart lately so just a little update on what I believe is in the works with the pair right now as far as Elliot Wave analysis goes. On the weekly chart it is quite evident that the pair could rise as high as the 1.48 area, this would be the conclusion of wave 3 of a major uptrend. From there we would see a retrace in three waves to form wave 4 before the final move up in wave 5 that would conclude around 1.50 or so, too early to tell right now. I would continue to look for long entries on pullbacks until we are in the 1.48 range where we should see a retrace, the target will not be evident until after the completion of wave 3.

Keep trading,

Craig
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:11 pm

Hey Folks,

Just keep in mind that when we look at the weekly chart it is for very long-term trades. One would not day trade on this type of analysis. Trades like this are very long-term trades which could be trades held for months if not years. I will, hopefully, post both a day and week chart with Elliot Wave analysis this weekend. I still am quite sure that, after a correction, we will see the pair rise to the 1.48 range. How long this will take is anyones guess right now though! Patience, patience, and more patience, the key to success in the FOREX marketplace.

Happy trading,

Craig
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:24 pm

Hi Everyone,

I have just completed Elliot Wave analysis based off of the monthly chart. As you can see from the chart the pair has been in a long-term uptrend for quite some time, basically since the pair has been trading. Please keep in mind that this is an extremely long-term outlook at where the pair "could" be heading over a very long period of time, for sure months if not years. I did this to just give us some idea what "might be" in the cards for the pair over the next several years. If this will be helpful or not is up to the trader. I, personally, like to have a long-term view as well as several shorter time frame views to base my trading decisions on. I will attempt to post shorter time frame charts on the pair in the upcoming days. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Happy Trading,

Craig
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piphut elliot wave monthly 1118.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby jozef81 » Tue Nov 23, 2010 8:42 am

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P.S.
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Sat Dec 04, 2010 1:18 pm

Hi Everyone,

First off, Happy Holidays to all! Now to some analysis on the EUR/USD day chart using Elliot Wave. If you have a look at the attached chart you will see that the 50 day sma is above the 200 day sma, yet price action dropped below the 200 sma and has since moved back above the 200 sma. What does this indicate one might ask, caution is the answer. As the wave count indicates we could possibly be at the conclusion of wave 2 in continuation of the most recent uptrend, on the other hand it could also be the start of a downtrend where wave 2 is actually wave 1 in the continuation of the longer term downtrend (the one that started a year ago). At this point it is really hard to determine which way the market will go. Typically, in December, currency pairs either make a new high or new low for the year. Of the two scenarios, a new low would seem the most logical as it is the closest; however, this year could very well be an exception to the rule, and neither a new high or new low may be established. I prefer to stand aside and wait for the trend to develop further before jumping into the market. I tend to trade larger time frames and hold my trades for longer than 1 day, so please keep that in mind when making your trading decisions. A break above the small green b on the chart would signal that wave 3 of the uptrend has started, whereas a break below the larger yellow b would signal wave 2 as indicated below is actually wave 1 of a downtrend resumption after a three wave correction.

Happy trading,

Craig
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piphut elliot wave daily 1204.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Tue Dec 21, 2010 12:26 pm

Happy Holidays All,

Well if you have been following the market this week it is obvious that the pair is going nowhere right now. However, if you take a look at the chart below you can see that we have had a close below the (b) so it is likely that this is a continuation of the downtrend that started last year. A close below the larger b in the three wave retracement as well as a close below the 200 sma and finally a 50/200 sma cross will confirm the downtrend resumption and that we are in the strongest wave (wave 3) of the move down. This could provide quite a few pips for an extended period of time. We have now seen a three wave retracement and could be close to wave one completion in the continuation of the downtrend. This should occur around 1.2850 give or take a few pips either way. Currently the 200 day sma is providing support and the 50 day sma is still well above the 200 although it is now pointing downward. What does all of this tell us? Direction is still not clear at the present moment and will more than likely remain so until after the first of the year. Mark's advice of staying clear of the market until after the holiday season is very good advice! I am currently (this being the key word as direction is unclear) bearish on the pair and anticipate resumption of the downtrend to occur during the first half of next year. Please remember that all of this can change rapidly due to the thin markets right now. That being said, I am out of the market right now and will reevaluate the pair after the first of the year before entering any trades.

Happy Holidays and trading,

Craig
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piphut elliot wave daily 1221.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Wed Jan 05, 2011 3:21 pm

Happy New Year Everyone,

The Holiday season saw little movement as far as trend direction goes in the pair. Now that all the big players are back in the market we should start to see movement and if you look at the attached chart, we may be in for continuation of the downtrend. I have projected one possible scenario for the pair.

I am also planning on starting a second discussion following the USD/JPY pair utilizing the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator on the 4 hr and the daily chart. Hopefully I will have this posted later this week. As of now the pair is near a break of the kumo on the daily chart. The cloud is very thin at the current level of price action and a break/close above may indicate that a major trend reversal is in store for this pair.

Happy Trading,

Craig
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piphut elliot wave daily 010511.gif
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Re: EUR/USD Elliot Wave

Postby Craig » Wed Jan 19, 2011 12:55 pm

Hi Everyone,

Well, what a bumpy ride this has been since the start of the new year! As you can see on the attached chart it appears now as though the 1st wave has completed, due in part to fundamentals, mostly the news out of the Euro zone. This being the case, I have revised the wave count. If in fact we are now in a three wave retracement to form wave 2 of the five wave impulse wave to the downside, then we should see conclusion of wave a at 1.36 resistance, with wave b completing some where in the 1.3150 range, and wave c retracing to around 1.40. This should be the completion of wave 2 and, fundamentals aside, start of wave 3. However, one never knows just how much fundamental news will affect the market, especially in these economic times.

Happy and profitable trading,

Craig
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piphut elliot wave 011911.gif
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