EUR/USD Elliot Wave

[Craig]

Hello Everyone,

Well the path in this pair is unclear at the moment. In the chart below you can see my revised wave count and I am not sure if it is correct right now as this pair seems to be defying normal wave action. I felt that 1.36 would be the turning point for the a, b, and c moves to complete wave two of the previous downtrend. However, the pair blew right through that level and came up just shy of the 1.37 level. If this level does hold off the bulls then we should see b wave complete around 1.3150. At this point however it is anyones guess as to where this pair is heading in the longer term. Some analysts believe that we have completed a three wave correction on the very long-term uptrend and that the pair is headed for new all time highs. It will be very interesting to see how things pan out in the next couple of months. Until then I am entering much shorter term trades with the pair than my normal week or longer positions.

Happy pip hunting,

Craig

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[Craig]

Hi Everyone,

It has been a while since my last post as it has been a rough winter here in southern Michigan, lots of snow shoveling (yuk). However, the market has been somewhat erratic the past several weeks as you can see from the attached chart. The most recent price action has the pair coming into close proximity of the 50 day sma and then getting a little bounce. According to my Elliot Wave count this should indicate that the pair is starting wave three (c) of a three wave retracement to form major wave 2 in the continuation of the downtrend that started in December 2009. This should, with strong emphasis on should, take us to the 1.44 area for the pair. As you can also see from the chart, wave iv of the 5 wave impulse move to form major wave 1 was an ugly one, which is often the case with wave iv. For now, I am looking for opportunities to go long on the pair with a target in the 1.44 area. Please remember that I do trade longer term, holding many of my trades for several days to a week or longer.

Happy trading,

Craig

[Craig]

Hello Fellow PipHutters,

As we can see from the attached chart the pair continues on its bullish rampage. We should have seen completion of wave i of a five wave impulse move to complete wave 2 of the next five wave continuation of the downtrend that started in December 2009. I am still looking for places to enter long and will continue to do so until the 50 sma crosses the 200 and they are pointed downward. We should see some pullback before wave iii starts. I anticipate completion of wave 2 to be some where around the 1.44 area give or take a few hundred pips either way. Please remember this is non-farm payroll week and anything can, and often does, happen.

Happy trading,

Craig

[Craig]

Hi Everyone,

As you can see from the attached chart we are now in the last move up towards the completion of the three wave retracement to form wave 2 in the current downtrend. Wave C of this move is forming in a five wave structure. We should see conclusion of this pattern some where above 1.43, most likely around the 1.4350 (this would also give us a double top) give or take a hundred or so pips. At this point we should continue to look for long positions on pull-backs. For those who mainly day trade, right now the market is overbought so a pullback seems likely. Which, for day traders, means you might possible get in a good short trade, that being said, I hold my positions for much longer time frames and do not like going against the current trend, which at this point remains bullish, so I will continue to add to my current long position on pull backs. Always keep in mind that you should never risk more than 2% of your account on any one trade, you can lose a lot of trades and still keep your account, and let those winners run.

Take care, and happy pip hunting,

Craig

(I apologize Puphutters, this comment was very poorly written the first time around.)

[Craig]

Hello All,

Well, as we can see from the attached chart, price continues to move higher. Fridays close of 1.4181 now has price action nearing the completion of wave C of a three wave retracement, which will complete wave 2 in a five wave structured move down. At this point, for position traders, I would not add to any long positions currently held. It may be a good point to start taking some profits off the table and start looking for exhaustion of the current bullish price movement in order to enter short. Friday's candle was a very strong bullish candle which means we could see some consolidation prior to the final push up to the projected target in the 1.43 to 1.4350 area. If your a day trader I would look for this consolidation and only enter on a breakout of a triangle formation with candle confirmation. I believe it will breakout in a bullish direction, but time will tell. As always, never risk more than 2% on any one trade. Patience, patience, patience, it is much better to miss out on a good trade than to enter into several bad ones. Remember, trade your plan, and do not try guess where the market is headed. Trust your plan and follow it no matter what and with proper money management, no matter if you have more losing trades than winners, you will be a successful trader as long as you employ proper money management. Home runs are for baseball players, not FOREX traders!

Take care,

Craig

[Craig]

Hello All,

Well, as we can all see from recent price action, it appears as though we are about to see the end of the long-term downtrend and the beginning of a new uptrend in the pair. Price has recently passed above the start, of what I believed, to be wave 1 in the continuation of the long-term downtrend. With this break, it now appears that this retracement will actually be the formation of wave 1 in a new uptrend. If this is the case, then we will probably see price move to the 1.45 area before we start to form wave 2 of a major uptrend (three wave retracement). I will try and post a chart this weekend with the new wave structure counts. I hope all of you still had some long positions open and have gotten to take advantage of this incredible move up. I did close some of my trades at the 1.4250 area, but did leave a few open and they remain open. I will be looking to add to these positions next week if we have a price retracement, especially if it returns to the 1.4250 area and we have candlestick confirmation of another bullish move.

Happy trading and enjoy the weekend,

Craig

[Craig]

Hello PipHutters,

It has been a while since my last post. I have been following the pair but took a little time off but am now back. Well, as we can see the pair has been very bullish since my last post. If you look at the chart it appears as though we are at the beginning of a new trend. The strong bearish move that started over a year ago may finally be over and we could now have formed wave 1 and wave 2 of an uptrend. If this is in fact the case, we should be near the completion of the first wave of a five wave impulse move. Wave 3 should take us to the 1.62 area. Remember, this analysis is all from a technical view point. Fundamentals have been playing havoc with price action of late. The problems in the Euro zone as well as trouble within the United States economy have emotions running wild on both sides of the ocean. For this reason, I have been very cautious on my entries, always with candlestick confirmation, and always using proper risk management when it comes to stop loss and lot size. So for now I remain very bullish on the pair and hold only long positions and will continue to do so as long as price action continues to be bullish.

Good Luck All,

Craig

[Craig]

Hi All,

It has been a long while since my last update. From the time of this last analysis the market traded sideways until September. I remained bullish until it was clear that wave 3 was not going to form, which was the strong bear candle on June 15th, 2011. I stayed out of the market for a couple of months as I am a position trader holding my trades for at least several days if not weeks, and occasionally months. During this period of time my former broker notified me they were no longer allowed to have customers from the United States so I closed my account with them and went in search of a United States broker. I must admit, those two months off trading was wonderful!

Since August of 2011 the market has been very bearish and we are now in wave 5 of a very strong move down. I expect this wave to conclude in the 1.16 to 1.20 range and I have been short, and adding short positions on retracement, for several months. I have just recently started trading on an MT4 platform again, so I will update a chart and post it later this week. My current broker has their own platform, unfortunately, it does not have the capability to add text, another reason I have not posted to this forum in a while.

I hope all of you have been well and making lots of pips,

Craig

Hello PipHutters,

It has been a while since my last post. I have been following the pair but took a little time off but am now back. Well, as we can see the pair has been very bullish since my last post. If you look at the chart it appears as though we are at the beginning of a new trend. The strong bearish move that started over a year ago may finally be over and we could now have formed wave 1 and wave 2 of an uptrend. If this is in fact the case, we should be near the completion of the first wave of a five wave impulse move. Wave 3 should take us to the 1.62 area. Remember, this analysis is all from a technical view point. Fundamentals have been playing havoc with price action of late. The problems in the Euro zone as well as trouble within the United States economy have emotions running wild on both sides of the ocean. For this reason, I have been very cautious on my entries, always with candlestick confirmation, and always using proper risk management when it comes to stop loss and lot size. So for now I remain very bullish on the pair and hold only long positions and will continue to do so as long as price action continues to be bullish.

Good Luck All,

Craig

[Craig]

Hi All,

Sorry it took so long to get this chart posted. I am currently attending college to advance my nursing degree and it takes up most, if not all, of my free time. As you can see from the attached chart, the Elliot Wave count pretty much coincides with the Head and Shoulder pattern that is forming on the daily chart. I believe that the pair is in a very strong downtrend and I further believe that we will see this continue through the month of April. The 200 sma has not been broken for some time and I have serious doubts that it will happen any time soon. It will be interesting to see if the wave count and the Head and Shoulder pattern work out.

Happy Trading Everyone,

Craig