ukfitness trades & ideas

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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Thu Aug 26, 2010 7:26 am

Here is an entry technique (it’s a standard technique) for adding to a position or entering if you have missed the initial move that the CP has signalled & if the trade still has potential. I did give this advice to a member in the chat room before it happened & it played out well.

The CP had already signalled the short from the rejection of R1 on the15m & 1h chart & had stalled at the Pivot. There was potential for price to drop to S1 so an entry opportunity would be a sustained break of the pivot.
Spot FX AUD_USD ttt(26-AUG-10).png


The 1 min chart (Initial short signal @ point 1, stall at Pivot & looking for entry @ point 2 & target S1 point 3) shows price breaking through the pivot & then rallying back up to it & testing it 3 times. Price rejected the Pivot & broke rising support then dropped to target of S1. This play offers a very good RR as target is S1 for +60 & SL is above the Pivot -15.
Spot FX AUD_USD 1m (25-AUG-10).png
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Thu Aug 26, 2010 7:49 am

Wednesday’s 1h signals & Quad plays

Here is an example of using more pairs to confirm a CP signal. The CP gave a Double Play short signal on the 1h chart for EU & AU. Both candles had rejected their respective R1’s which in itself is one of the best signals to trade but a quick look & EJ & AJ shows that they have also formed Bearish signals (AJ Doji @ WS1 & EJ Shooting star at R1 See charts below).
Spot FX EUR_USD q(26-AUG-10).png
Spot FX AUD_USD q(26-AUG-10).png
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Thu Aug 26, 2010 7:51 am

Continued......

As the charts show all pairs dropped to a significant level: AU to double support @ S1 & WS1 for a possible +100, EU dropped to WS1 for a possible +70, AJ dropped to WS2 for a possible +100 & EJ dropped to the Pivot for a possible +70
Spot FX EUR_JPY q(26-AUG-10).png
Spot FX EUR_JPY q(26-AUG-10).png (10.26 KiB) Viewed 3318 times
Spot FX EUR_JPY q(26-AUG-10).png
Spot FX EUR_JPY q(26-AUG-10).png (10.26 KiB) Viewed 3318 times
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:23 am

Drawdown

A member of the chat room asked me yesterday about drawdown figures, which is a very good question. As I’ve always stressed, this system is not the Holy Grail of Forex....because there isn’t one..... but what it does do (when mixed with common sense) is increase the probabilities of a successful trade. As with any system, there will be drawdown & the amount will depend on your trading plan, the timeframe you trade on & also on your own psychology. I don’t list all drawdown because there are too many variables dependant on each trader. My trading style is active so I list the figures that are relevant to that style.

If for example you can only look at the charts every hour or so, then you will have to set your targets & stop loss & manage them every hour & your drawdown will be different to an active trader who watches the charts for signs of reversal on smaller time frames & closes positions with profits where possible. A set and forget style will also have a different set of results.

To demonstrate an example of variable outcome depending on trading style, I'll use the signal from yesterday which the question of drawdown was raised on. The 1h CP gave a Triple Play short signal at point 1 on the charts (when the signal was produced all the 6 pairs formed a Bearish signal), GU had rejected the DR3 & the Weekly pivot & EU had rejected R1 & 740 resistance, AU was under R1 but had not rejected it. This looked like a high probability set up & potentially a reversal to previous lows (WS1) which would offer excellent RR with SL’s being above the signal candles, using Pivots, S+R levels & fibs for targets on the way down.

The trades played out for a few hours & neither first targets nor stop losses (above signal candles) were hit. The US jobless claims announcement was due @1.30 GMT+1 & that had the potential to move the market so it made sense to manage the stops on any positions that were still open. 5 minutes before the news, from the 1h Triple sell signal AU was +20, EU was +25 & GU was +20.
There are several courses of action that could have been taken here but my preferred one is to remove a portion of the trade before the news release & move stops to break even. If the news moves price against your trade, then you will get stopped out but will still have taken some profit from the trade & if the news moves price in favour of your trade then your remaining portion if free to move on to your profit targets (usually very quickly).
Spot FX AUD_USD f(27-AUG-10).png
Spot FX EUR_USD f(27-AUG-10).png
Spot FX GBP_USD f (27-AUG-10).png



What happened next: AU reversed & hit stop loss at be, EU dropped quickly to target 1 for +50 at the Pivot & then reversed hitting stop loss at be & GU formed a Double play long signal (against the short position) so the remaining portion could have been closed there for +20 or closed when price revered & hit stop loss @ break even.
All outcomes depend on how you trade & where you place your stops. For example if you have placed your GU stop above the signal candle & the next resistance level a few pips above DR3 & 600 double zero then you would still be in the trade at +40. If you had placed your EU stop above the signal candle then you would have been stopped out for -30 but if you had placed it above the next resistance level (weekly Pivot) then you would still be in the trade @-10. With AU if you had placed stop above the signal candle then you would have been stopped out for -20 but if you had placed it above the next resistance level R1 & sinking 4h resistance then you would still be in the trade @+5.

With the active trading technique, in this instance, all trades closed in profit & the pairs then produced another profitable Triple short signal 8 hours later.However the active trading style is a lot more stressful than others & requires you be at your screen full time & is definitely not for everybody.
My advice is for every trader to trade the style that suits them but I would suggest that new traders use only Marks daily trading ideas.
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:53 pm

Double Play of the day

The pairs didn’t move much in the morning probably in anticipation of the GDP release & Bernanke’s speech in the afternoon. Extra caution was needed today as it was the last Friday of the month & because of the low range in the morning, a breakout was likely after the news. The CP did signal long positions on AU & EU with 2 consecutive Double Play signals @2.15pm GMT (point 1 on the charts). AU met all criteria for a Double play in that price was above the daily Pivot & 21ma, CCI & RSI were both positive & price went up to DR3 for a possible +80 for AU & up to weekly Pivot for a possible +60 for EU.
Spot FX AUD_USD fri (27-AUG-10).png
Spot FX EUR_USD fri(27-AUG-10).png


GU was under the Pivot all day so most of the CP short signals would have yielded pips (the amount depending how you traded the signals & using above the Pivot to tuck sl)
Spot FX GBP_USD fri (27-AUG-10).png
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:13 am

Trading with the trend

When trading on the 15m chart I find it best to stick to the age old saying of "The trend is your friend" & take trades in the direction of the trend. (That’s not to say there aren’t any good scalping opportunities against the trend but they are of course, more risky).

If I’m looking for a reversal, I’ll look to the 1h or 4h chart for candlestick formations @ S&R levels & not the 15m as a reversal usually takes more than 1 or 2 x 15m candles. Obviously it’s unwise to enter a new long position on the 15m chart that is just below resistance or a new short position that is just above support.
Although the goal is to enter a trend & ride it out as long as possible for maximum pips, on the 15m time frame, personally I find it’s best to be ready to scalp your profits & manage your stops if the trade goes against you & then look for a possible high probability re-entry. Remember a trade will always go against you at some point, it’s just a case of spotting when & maximising your profits .

Here are some examples of trading with the CP Double & Triple signals that were the right side of the trend so far today. Green arrows are CP long signals & red arrows are CP short signals with the double & triples labelled. (The black arrows are CCI zero rejection entries):

AU has given a couple of Double Play long signals along with 1 Double & 2 Triple Play short signals. As the chart shows the signals in the direction of the trend have paid & those against the trend have not.
Spot FX AUD_USD wedd (01-SEP-10).png


EU has given 1 Double Play signal with the trend that has paid (Price has moved +100 from that signal). All of the signals against the trend have failed.
Spot FX EUR_USD wedd(01-SEP-10).png


News was due for Cable @ 9.30 today so it was best to stay out until the release. If you did trade it however, GU gave a Triple that closed below the Pivot but not convincingly but this would have been a loss if you entered & closed on the next double signal against your trade for -6. That long Double Play signal was above the pivot & the 21ma & did pay as did the following Triple that closed below the Pivot & was due to the bad PMI results.
Spot FX GBP_USD wedd(01-SEP-10).png
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:41 pm

Continued...

This was perfect timing because the CP gave a counter trend Triple Play signal after I had posted the update above & what followed is an excellent example of why it’s better to trade with the trend.
The circles on the charts show both the counter trend Triple & the Triple with the trend.

The Triple Play was a short signal (counter trend) but the formations were all shooting stars at significant levels which lent strength to the signal & there was a probability of a successful scalp trade on the pairs. The trade did not develop & 2 candles later the CP signalled another Triple Play but this time the signal was long in the direction of the trend. Closing all 3 short positions at this point would have given a small loss on each pair (EU -5 AU -2 & GU -12). The Triple Play long signal would then have you the right side of the trend & from those entries:

AU went up to strong resistance & DR3 for a possible +20 (Failed t break resistance & price had completed 120% of ATR at this point so position closed)
Spot FX AUD_USD wee(01-SEP-10).png


EU: Once price closed above 800 & DR2 after the signal, price went a possible +40 (Price stalled 5 pips from DR3 & had done 121% of daily ATR so position closed)
Spot FX EUR_USD wee(01-SEP-10).png


GU: Once price closed above WS1 & 400 after the signal, price rose for a possible +80 or +100 from the signal entry (price broke R1 & strong resistance @ 470 but stalled @m4 line so position closed)
Spot FX GBP_USD wee(01-SEP-10).png
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:37 am

NFP day

Non-Farm Payrolls is the biggest release on the USA calendar & normally produces erratic moves that increase risk. Normally if I am already in a trade & a news release is due, then I will hold positions with tightened stops but experience has taught me to stay out on NFP day around release time. If you are a technical trader & ignore the fundamental news then you can profit from the moves if price moves in your direction but in my opinion (& this is only my opinion) it is a gamble to trade around the release time on NFP day. Some people specialise in trading news releases & do very well from it but to do that successfully you need the news release instantly & it’s best left to the big players.

The odds are stacked against retail traders enough already without increasing risk, so why trade on days with high risk event? Protect your money & trade another day on low risk, high probability trades.

Here are the charts from NFP on the 3rd Sept (yesterday), as usual green arrows CP long signals & red arrows CP short signals.

AU: Technically the price is in a nice uptrend after 8am because it has closed above the Pivot & is above the ma’s so looking for longs & the CP gave a Double Play long @8.15am. Once price is above the 21 ma, all short signals can be ignored & the CP gave more 3 long signals (in the circle) at the 61 fib level after a 4 bar pullback from a new high so a possible scenario would have been (if your weren't still long from the Double Play signal) to open a long position with the stop loss @ -15 below the Pivot & previous low with target 1 +15 WR1 Target 2 + 30 R1 & target 3 +45 or let run up to R2 for +60 or to a reversal signal. As the chart shows price hit all 3 targets but I did not take the trade as I stay on the sidelines around the release time.
Spot FX AUD_USD sat2(03-SEP-10).png


EU: A similar situation as AU in that price is above the Pivot, so looking for long entries & all short signals can be ignored as price is in an intraday uptrend. There is a Double Play long signal @8.15 with a Hammer failing to close below the Pivot just under he 21ma & then a long signal just before the news release but as the chart shows price jumps wildly & the 15m news release bar's range is 60 pips. If you were in a long position with your stop under the Pivot & the previous low @-30 you would have survived & price then went on up to 12900 for a possible +80. Personally I don’t like to sit through movements like this if I have open positions but if you don’t watch the charts you would have made a profit on the trade. (I would have tightened my stop up also so would havebeen stopped out)
Spot FX EUR_USD sat (03-SEP-10).png


GU: What a horrible looking chart......Technically the same as EU & AU in that price in an intraday uptrend (above Pivot & ma's) & there were a couple of long signals (one Double Play & one triple Play) that would have paid up to R1 in the morning. There was a news release @ 9.30 for cable which saw price drop to strong support. As usual price didn’t move through lunchtime & then gained +60 in 1 bar on the NFP news & then went nowhere all afternoon.
Spot FX GBP_USD sat(03-SEP-10).png
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:43 am

Continued......

UC & UJ : The same technical picture with these pairs as with EU, AU & GU before the news: Price above Pivot & above ma’s with CP long signals close to the Pivots so SL could be hidden under that with good risk/reward. As the charts show both pairs would have made a very nice profit with UC hitting R2 & UJ hitting R3
Spot FX USD_CHF sat(03-SEP-10).png
Spot FX USD_JPY sat(03-SEP-10).png




Although all the possible trades would have ended in profit if traded technically this time, if the move had gone the other way, then because price movements are so fast, your stop orders can get filled very late causing bigger losses than you planned for.
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Re: ukfitness trades & ideas

Postby ukfitness » Wed Sep 08, 2010 9:10 am

Here’s a very good example of how powerful confluence of signals can be when used with common sense, support & resistance.

There were corresponding Double Play CP signal on AU & GU on the 15m & also the 30m time frames.
Which pair to choose that presents the highest probability of a successful trade:

Although in an intraday downtrend, GU had repeatedly failed to break support at 300 double zero (in the circle on the chart), daily ATR had been exceeded & S1 was 30 pips away & Pivot was 100 pips away so there was plenty of potential for a long trade. Stop loss could be placed under the support with small risk & high potential reward.
Spot FX GBP_USDvvv (08-SEP-10).png
I called this signal in the Chat room as it happened & GU went on to yield a possible +190 pips up to R2 the following day.
Spot FX GBP_USD zz(08-SEP-10).png


AU had found resistance earlier @150 which was around 10 pips from entry so a long was not a viable option on this pair.
Spot FX AUD_USD wed (08-SEP-10).png



Of course not every trade works out as well but this example shows why it is important to have patience & wait for the high probability setups. The worse that could have happened on this trade is stop loss being hit for -15 & with S1 +30 & Pivot +100 it was a trade worth taking.
I took this trade with my normal targets of +20, +40 & +60 (or let 3rd lot run).
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