Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Thu Oct 07, 2010 6:08 am

**WAS BEING A COMPLETE MUPPET YESTERDAY - NO GREMLINS ANYWHERE, I GOT MY DAYS MIXED UP AND THOUGHT IT WAS THE 7th WHICH EXPLAINS A LACK OF CHARTS FOR THE 7th WHEN ITS ONLY THE 6th!! I BLAME THE EARLY MORNING BRAIN**


EUR/USD

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


7 Oct 2010 Daily update: Bullish uptrend, continuation of rally and retrace pattern seen over past couple of weeks. Price has moved above upper edge of rising channel and yesterday confirmed top edge as new support.

No new daily candles to enter on.


AUD/USD

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


Hourly chart clearly showing ascending triangle spotted on mondays daily charts. Breakout was expected to upside, news took pair spiking through bottom edge although now this has whipsawed, found top edge of triangle as support and currently resuming uptrend. What a drama! Good thing was that price dawdling around bottom of triangle may have reflected traders thinking prior to actual news which caused the spike down. Another great thing is that CP kicked out a 100% triple with trend hammer at precisely 08:00 GMT on 5 October on the H4 chart. This move is currently 250+ pips!

7 Oct 2010 Daily update: Resistance around 0.9735 has held for last few days. Pair spiked through MA10 a few days ago but closed above. Since then price reconfirmed MA10 as support and today confirmed bottom edge of rising channel again as suppport.

No new dailys.


GBP/USD

Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


7 Oct 2010 Daily update: Pair still very wicky with little actual movement when viewing the day as a whole. Waiting for a decent daily candle to go long on, but wickiness is putting me off due to increased risk of SL getting taken out.
Last edited by candlesurfer on Thu Oct 07, 2010 6:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Thu Oct 07, 2010 6:43 am

USD/CHF

Preview of “X USD-CHF Rolling Daily”.jpg


7 Oct 2010 Daily update: Further bearish moves, price breaching lower edge of long term channel.

Waiting for new daily bearish candle / short term rally to sell although right now this pair just keeps on dropping. MA10 getting lower and lower, signalling that the channel may be about to alter slightly and pushing price into a steeper dive.

MACD still well below zero line and still pointing down.

USD/JPY


Preview of “X USD-JPY Rolling Daily”.jpg


7 Oct 2010 daily update:

New daily + confluence on 4h.

Price still respecting former resistance zone as new support zone after dropping out of sideways range. Price now entering territory at which BoJ intervened recently so there is danger of that reoccuring.

Tempted to trade todays new daily candles with a nice 4h as confluence confirmation. 4h candle puts TP at 82.35. Daily puts TP at 81.44. I would like to be around to see things unfold today but cannot due to my pain in the behind day job. What I would be looking for (my opinion / approach/ speculation only!) is proof that the price move downwards is strong enough to breach both the new support and former resistance levels, currently at 82.68 and 82.40 respectively.

'Proof' would be a close below these levels on the higher timeframes, say 1h or even 4h. Then a nice bearish candle could get price sailing down to 81.44 for around 100-ish pips. There is a risk of BoJ jumping in again, which is why I would want to be around monitoring news etc if I were to take this trade. Will be interesting tomorrow to see what unfolds today on this pair as I am expecting price to jump down today but am unsure how BoJ will view this. Who said finance was boring? This is better than any soap opera!


8:22 GMT - UPDATE FROM BBC NEWS REPORTING THAT BoJ CUT INTERESTS RATES TO ALMOST ZERO TWO DAYS AGO AND IS CONTEMPLATING FURTHER ALTERNATIVE INTERVENTIONS IN ORDER TO WEAKNE THE YEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES

Japan cuts interest rate further

Japan's central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to almost zero as it tries to stimulate the county's faltering economy.

Rates had been held at 0.1% since the end of 2008, but have now been trimmed further.

Falling prices and the strong yen - which eats into the value of overseas earnings for Japanese exporters - have hit the economy.

A "near-zero" policy means that the rate moves within a small range between 0% and 0.1% - though no fixed rate is set.

"Although Japan's economy still shows signs of moderate recovery, the pace of recovery is slowing down partly due to the slowdown in overseas economies and the effects of the yen's appreciation on business sentiment," the Bank of Japan said.

Markets had not been expecting the rate cut.

"It was an utterly surprising and bold move. The bank has sent a favourable message to the markets, which had been expecting it to take only small, gradual steps," said Sieji Shiraishi at HSBC Securities.

He did, however, question the impact the rate cut would have.

"The bank's move is unlikely to impact the overall economy much, even though the yen weakened briefly, as the root of the problems lies in the weakness of the US economy."

The bank also said it would consider pumping money into the economy in an attempt to stimulate demand.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:06 am

EUR/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


8 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price reconfirmed upper edge of rising channel as support yesterday. CP kicked out a 100% double daily bearish candle today. What a shame this was counter trend and strong.

TP on candle puts price down around 1.3771, which would be a pull back/ retest of MA10. Hopeful that this will occur, followed by a strong with trend daily to go long on. No suggestion from MACD or MAs that this large drop will occur, will be interesting to see the days price action unfold.

Daily scene is set for a tear up between bears and bulls, with the trend being with the bulls but some strong technical suggestion of shorter term bearish strength.


AUD/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


8 Oct 2010 Daily update: Former resistance level at 0.9735 now acting as support. Price continuing upward trajectory and so far respecting channel. Ascending triangle now breached to upside for 200+ pips.

No new dailys.

Daily scene set for continuation of up trend.


GBP/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


8 Oct 2010 Daily update: Another very wicky day for the pair yesterday. Not going any where near this pair for now!

100% double strong bearish candle shared with EUR/USD. Expecting price to reach as low as 1.5623 which is approaching strong support at 1.5600. Again this is countertrend and I don't like the wicks on this pair!

Daily scene set for more wickiness (is that even a word?) on the pair, with strong technical downward pressure and stalling medium term moving averages contributing to indecision.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:54 am

EUR/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg



11 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price continuing to hover round mid channel, not really doing much. CP again kicked out a 100% double daily bearish candle today on both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Not such a surprise given they are both Western European currencies vs the US Dollar.

TP on candle puts price down around 1.3851, which again would be a pull back/ retest of MA10. Remain hopeful that this will occur, followed by a strong with trend daily to go long on. Still no suggestion from MACD or MAs that this large drop will occur.

Daily scene is set for more indecision on the pair as price has been tending to hover mid-channel with MACD and MAs suggesting upward momentum to continue and a series of bearish daily candles suggesting otherwise.


AUD/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend


Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


11 Oct 2010 Daily update: Former resistance level at 0.9735 recently confimed as new support. Price back within rising channel and so far today appears to be testing lower edge.

No new dailys.

Daily scene set for test of lower edge of channel. Price could bounce back up into channel or breach and retrace again in a copy of last weeks two extremely wicky days. Upper MACD signal line pointing down, suggesting a bearish outlook.


GBP/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


11 Oct 2010 Daily update: Lots of very wicky daily moves on this pair last week saw me staying clear.

Double bearish daily candle shared with EUR/USD. TP on this puts price way down at around 1.5661, however last weeks candles put price around the same level but did not occur.

Daily scene set for indecision,with price caught between the upward momentum of preceding weeks and contradictory strong technical downward pressure and stalling medium term moving averages.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:27 am

USD/CHF - Strong Flowing Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-CHF Rolling Daily”.jpg


11 Oct 2010 Daily update: Daily price still just about repecting lower edge of long term channel with some wicks breaching.

Pair continues to drop, been locked in a downtrend now since June/July which overall has moved about -2037 pips.

Waiting for new daily bearish candle / short term rally to sell although right now this pair just keeps on dropping. MA10 is getting lower and lower, putting the squeeze on price which is now caught between this MA and lower edge of channel.

MACD still well below zero line and still pointing down although lower signal line appears to be flattening out.

Daily scene set for further retesting of lower support and underside of MA10. I am expecting price to be caught somewhere between these two throughout the day and ending the day within the channel.



USD/JPY - Strong Flowing Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-JPY Rolling Daily”.jpg


Zoomed out longer term chart of USD/JPY showing prices currently trading around 15 year low on the pair.


11 Oct 2010 daily update: Price now tested underside of former support zone as new resistance zone after dropping out of sideways range. Price now well and truly below the territory at which BoJ intervened recently with no signs of a reversal so there is a huge danger of another intervention.

On the fundamentals side, BoJ has been sending strong signals out that it will intervene again as it is so heavily dependent upon exports and must keep the price of these down. Given JPY is at a level last seen way back in 1995, this tells you how pressured BoJ and the government must be feeling.

Daily scene will be interesting but any short term trader could well get caught in the big gun cross fire on this pair. There is nothing to suggest anything other than further gains of JPY on the dollar.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Tue Oct 12, 2010 5:54 am

EUR/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


12 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price testing lower edge of channel. TP on yesterdays double signal was hit around 2:00am. MACD suggesting further bearish moves may be possible, with the signal lines about to cross and possibly about to turn downwards as if a peak has been reached.

MAs still suggest strong uptrend in place.

Daily scene set for a possible reversal as signalled by MACD, but price on the pair has upward inertia due to the rising channel which is now over a month old. This has provided strong support on the lower edge of the channel, which also coincides with MA10 meaning there will need to be a strong confident push in order to push prices down today.

No new daily candles.



AUD/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


12 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price respected lower edge of channel yesterday but today has breached down to MA10 so far. Price is currently testing this support level and below that is former resistance at 0.9735.


No new dailys.

Daily scene set for test of MA10 and former resistance at 0.9735. Price could bounce back up into channel or breach and retrace again in a copy of last weeks two extremely wicky days. MACD signal lines have crossed, suggesting a bearish outlook.




GBP/USD - Uptrend

Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


12 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price currently testing MA10 after dropping slightly below edge of rising channel. Price got nowhere near yesterdays TP at around 1.5661.

Daily scene set for tests of MA10 and lower edge of support as possible new resistance. Strong potential support around 1.5832.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:24 am

USD/CHF - Strong Flowing Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-CHF Rolling Daily”.jpg


12 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price reconfirmed bottom edge of channel as support, now testing underside of MA10.

MACD has crossed over but is still way south of zero line.

This could be a shoterter rally to sell, waiting for new daily bearish candle to support trade. Price is still caught between MA10 and lower edge of channel.

Daily scene set for testing of underside of MA10. I am expecting price to be remain caught somewhere between MA10 and lower channel support, ending the day within the channel.




USD/JPY - Strong Flowing Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-JPY Rolling Daily”.jpg


12 Oct 2010 daily update: Price reconfirmed underside of former support zone as new resistance zone yesterday. Price now well and truly below the territory at which BoJ intervened recently with no signs of a reversal so there is a huge danger of another intervention. Yesterday I pulled up a long term chart showing JPY at a 15 year high against USD (or should that be USD at a 15 year low against JPY?)

Daily scene will be more possible intervention from BoJ in my humble opinion. Again, any short term trader could well get caught in the big gun cross fire on this pair. There is nothing to suggest anything other than further gains of JPY on the dollar which Japan has repeatedly announced is bad for their exports and given this is such a huge section of their economy I cannot see them standing idly by.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:13 am

EUR/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


13 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price action yesterday drove a wick through lower edge of channel but at the end of the day did not sustain the breach. MACD Almost crossed over, but has not yet done this. Price so far today appears to be back in the channel and has found support at lower edge of channel once more.

MAs still aligned so as to suggest a flowing uptrend is still in place.

No new daily candles from CP.

Daily scene set for a bullish move as yesterdays test of both MA10 and lower edge of rising channel found both as support and breached only temporarily, however MACD is still hovering around making a cross over, so there is again a slightly mixed outlook. I am leaning towards a bullish day today though based on their success yesterday.



AUD/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend with MACD & Chart Pattern Bearish Divergence

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


13 Oct 2010 Daily update: Another horrible looking wick yesterday - these must be taking out stops when they occur in the middle of this sustained uptrend and drive prices lower for a while (short squeeze?). Its a shame as I was previously liking 'Aussie' but these regular long bearish wicks are driving me away from the pair as they are stop suckers.

Price yesterday drove a wick through lower edge of channel and MA10, eventually finishing the day within the channel once more. So far today price is dropping below the edge of this channel, possible confirmation as new resistance may occur today in which case prices could be about to fall.

MACD supports this, as it just about completed a cross over and is now pointing downwards.

CP did not kick out any new daily candles.

Daily scene set for a possible change of trend to a bearish outlook for the pair. MAs suggest however that the uptrend is still strong.



GBP/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


13 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price yesterday tested and breached MA10 and later went on to drop quite significantly, breaking support at 1.5832 but reconfimring strong previous support around 1.5750.

Price so far today appears to be retracing back towards channel but MACD yesterday performed a bearish crossover. MA10 also flattenning and MA50 is catching MA20. Price has wicked around former support at 1.5832 and is so far respecting.

Daily outlook is therefore considered to be set for a test of the underside of former supports: 1.5832, MA10 and then lower edge of rising channel. These are a significant set of technical obstacles for price to overcome.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:34 am

USD/CHF - Strong Flowing Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-CHF Rolling Daily”.jpg


13 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price yesterday tested underside of MA10 before ending day beneath lower edge of falling channel. Price today so far picked up from yesterday, pushing down further off the bottom edge of falling channel.

MACD pointing down and still way south of zero line.

CP kicked out a new 50% bearish candle with TP down around 1.9436.

Daily scene set for more bearishness on the pair. Yesterdays sustained breach of channel underside could be significant today, especially with the new bearish daily, MAs aligned to suggest a strong flowing downtrend and MACD pointing down. All adds up to a possibly v bearish day.



USD/JPY - Strong Flowing Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-JPY Rolling Daily”.jpg


13 Oct 2010 daily update: Price again tested then reconfirmed underside of former support zone as new resistance zone yesterday. This is two days on the trot now so is considered bearish.

No new CP daily candles

Daily scene is once more set for further bearish price pushes into BoJ intervention territory.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Thu Oct 14, 2010 6:30 am

EUR/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


14 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price action yesterday one again confirmed bottom edge of rising channel as support. New daily candle put TP around 1.4164 from 1.3983. I feel I have missed most of this move as price is currently trading at 1.4076, with just 88 pips left to go based on this particular candlestick. So, I will wait for a retracement throughout today before going long. Decent potential support zone at 1.4005, so will go long if price gets back donw here, using CP TP.

Trade: Long at 1.4005 SL at 1.3925 (below strong potential support, 80) TP at 1.4160 (155)

MACD Almost crossed over, but has not yet done this. MAs still aligned so as to suggest a flowing uptrend is still in place.

Daily scene set for a bullish move (most of the move may have already occured so I am awaiting retracement of the early push) as 1.40 was breached today and everything else supports more bullish movement. There may be a retest around 1.40, I am hoping this will get me long as I have placed an order just above.


AUD/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend with Wick Danger

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg



14 Oct 2010 Daily update: New CP candle today puts price around top edge of channel - that is some move, but maybe possible given the retraint on this pair over the past few days. Price has been retracing / held back so I am going to take advantage of the potentil pop as per the trading strategy. I like where price is this morning as well, there is plenty of room left for the move.

There have been lots of wicky days recently so I am putting my SL well under MA10

Unfortunately with the major wickiness, my SL will make the r:r unattractive so the rules say I can't place this trade. I amnot around during the day a percieve the risk of a major whipsaw event as too high.

Daily scene set for bearish moves with a possible nasty whipsaw in there at some point.


GBP/USD - Uptrend


Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


14 Oct 2010 Daily update: No new daily candles. Pice yesterday bounced up off strong support at 1.5750 and today back in channel and looking bullish as it overcame the technical obstacles written about yesterday.

MACD crossed back over to bullish arrangement.

Daily outlook is therefore considered to be bullish.
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