Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Thu Oct 14, 2010 6:43 am

USD/CHF - Strong Flowing Downtrend with Price Squeezed




14 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price pushing down further below bottom edge of falling channel.

MACD pointing down and still way south of zero line.

CP kicked out a new bearish candle but with a poor r:r was rejected.

Daily scene set for more bearishness on the pair although price continues to be squeezed beteen channel and MA10 so this may prove to be limits for any moves.



USD/JPY - Strong Flowing Downtrend with BoJ intervention possible.




14 Oct 2010 daily update: Price moving down into old channel again off underside of top edge yesterday and two days previous. Could be a v bearish day, am staying clear as BoJ intervention is possible, creating a huge whipsaw.

No new CP daily candles

Daily scene is once more set for further bearish price pushes into BoJ intervention territory.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Mon Oct 18, 2010 6:03 am

EUR/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


18 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price action so far today has fallen out of the rising channel and I await to see how it will finish the day. So far though it is sell, sell, sell on EUR/USD.

MA10 has turned down, which in combination with MACD crossover with both signal lines pointing down is bearish. Will see how today unfolds but appears v bearish.

CP did not kick out any new daily candles. Possible retest of 1.40 today?


Last thursdays daily candle put TP around 1.4164 from 1.3983 and played out as predicted. I left an order to enter on a dip back to 1.4005, although this was triggered there was no bounce back up off of 1.40 so my SL got tripped today. Glad its just a demo account!

MACD Crossed over. MAs aligned so as to suggest uptrend is stalling a little.

Daily scene set for bearishness with some possible retesting of 1.40.


AUD/USD - Strong Flowing Uptrend with Wick Danger

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


18 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price today so far below both MA10 and lower edge of channel. Unsure if this is a lower wick forming or maybe the start of a strong bearish move. No new daily candles from CP.

Another uncertain day on this pair. Will wait to see what price does today so as to spot emerging trend for the week ahead.


GBP/USD - Flowing Uptrend

Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


18 Oct 2010 Daily update: No new daily candles. Price so far today challenging MA10 at around 1.5925. Will watch events unfold to see if this possible support level is respected or not.


MACD in bearish arrangement. MAs still aligned to flowing uptrend.
Last edited by candlesurfer on Mon Oct 18, 2010 6:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Mon Oct 18, 2010 6:18 am

USD/CHF - Flowing Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-CHF Rolling Daily”.jpg


18 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price so far today up above MA10. MAs still pointing downwards although MA10 maybe flattening. Will watch today to see is MA10 respected. Waiting for strong bearish candle to sell this rally.

CP did not kick out any new daily candles.

Daily scene set for a shorter term rally with possible retest of MA10.



USD/JPY - Strong Flowing Downtrend with possible BoJ intervention

Preview of “X USD-JPY Rolling Daily”.jpg


18 Oct 2010 daily update:

Price found support last week at 80.87, will wait to see if this is respected again this week. Price so far staying below falling channel and aiming for this support level.

As usual I am staying clear as BoJ intervention is possible.

No new CP daily candles
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:30 am

EUR/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


20 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price crashed yesterday, taking out my SL of the trade I placed on a reversal to 1.40. Price did come back down but did not bounce. This is the reality of not being around during the day to judge setups more accurately so I will take this as a lesson learnt. If the move as predicted by the daily candle has already occured or is a substantial way into the move I will see this as too late to trade. I have to factor in not being around in the day time on the smaller timescales.

So, 1.40 was breached and price looked like heading upwards before finding resistance at 1.4164, reversing and finding 1.4 as new resistance on monday and tuesday with huge bearish move off this leve.

MA10 has turned, signifying a stalling uptrend. However, this is the kind of set up I want. Looking for price to return to its upwards move and will buy this dip on a decent daily candle, wary of the strong level at 1.40.

Price so far today appears to be moving up, after fidning support around 1.37. EUR/USD becoming rangebound between 1.4 and 1.37?

MACD signal lines look v bearish.

Nothing new on the daily CP scan. Waiting for decent daily bullish candle plus MACD / MA10 to be more favourable.


AUD/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


20 Oct 2010 Daily update: Similar story to E/U: strong lengthy period of uptrend came to an abrupt end yesterday with a huge bearish day.

Set up is for buying this dip back into channel.

Price so far today is retracing some of yesterdays drop. CP kicked out a new double daily bearish 3 Out down (44%) this puts price down as low as 0.9456 which is around MA50.

Will wait for a decent daily bullish candle to go long with additional confidence from MACD and price in relation to MA10.


GBP/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


20 Oct 2010 Daily update: Again, huge drops against the dollar are the story here. Pair dropped by over 200 pips yesterday.

CP kicked out a new double daily bearish 3 Out down (44%) this puts price down as low as 1.5346 which is down in a major support zone for the pair. If this candle plays out as predicted there could be further bearish days coming up.

Price so far retracing some of yesterdays huge drop. waiting for strong bullish candle and MACD/MA10 to be favourable to go long again.
Last edited by candlesurfer on Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:40 am

USD/CHF - Flowing Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-CHF Rolling Daily”.jpg



20 Oct 2010 Daily update: Yet again the USD was by far the stronger of the pair yesterday. Price went flying past MA10 but did not reach the other side of falling channel. Price so far today is retracing yesterdays move and hopefully resuming downtrend. Will watch how price behaves around MA10.

MA10 flattened slightly but not reversed. No new bearish candles which is a shame as there could be some juicy pips for going short this pair today.

Alas I am at work all day so cannot take advantage. C'est la vie.



USD/JPY - Flowing Downtrend with possible BoJ intervention

Preview of “X USD-JPY Rolling Daily”.jpg



20 Oct 2010 daily update:

About the only pair out of those I follow which had a muted day yesterday. USD was again the stronger currency, but the move north was quite small in comparison to the crashes and bull runs seen on most other pairs. Interesting.

Price bounced up and hit the upper edge of the lower falling channel zone I have drawn before finishing the day below it.

Price aiming again for 80.87, will wait to see if this is respected again this week. Could be further bearish moves below 80.87.

As usual I am staying clear as BoJ intervention is possible.

No new CP daily candles
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:15 am

EUR/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


21 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price yesterday retraced tuesdays crash. Two good days for pips if you were short at the right time and then also long at the correct time. Price so far today has respected 1.400 as new resistance.

CP interpreted yesterdays move as a bullish engulfing, 12% strength but a double shared with Cable. CP places TP on todays candle up at 1.4150, other side of resistance, with the trend.

I will let price breach 1.4000 before entering, but leaving enough space the other side of this key level to try and avoid any false breaks. I am not around throughout the day so cannot pick the most ideal entry so will have to try and factor this in with my choice of entry.

Long entry @ 1.4030, SL at 1.3970, TP at 1.4150.

MA10 has flattened, signifying a stalling uptrend. This is hopefully about to reverse off todays new daily candle.

As suggested yesterday, price could become rangebound between 1.4 and 1.37, but so far today MA10 has provided some support so lets hope price breaks up throuhg 1.4000 and hits TP later on.

MACD signal lines still looking bearish, warns of potential for price to crash again.

Daily outlook: fresh challenges of 1.4000


AUD/USD - Stalling Uptrend with possible Bearish wedge forming

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg



21 Oct 2010 Daily update: Broadly similar story to E/U: partial reversal of tuesdays crash, however to me the beginnings of a bearish wedge may be forming on the pair.

MACD is definately bearish with the signal lines well spaced and pointing steeply down.

I will wait to see what occurs but based on this potential formation we could be about to see a reveral of the trend although MA50 and 100 are still yet to turn. Remember yesterdays CP daily candle was a double daily bearish 3 Out down (44%) which put price down as low as 0.9456 which is around MA50.

Daily outlook: Watching for further evidence of bearish wedge and watching key support at 0.9660 as if breached price could get as low as 0.9456 over next few days. Price respecting underside of MA10 as support, further strengthening the possibility of a large drop over the next few days.


GBP/USD - Stalling Uptrend


Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


21 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price again retraced againt dollar but I can see the beginnings of a falling channel appearing, which I have drawn on my chart to see if it is respected over the coming days. This pair however is up and down like a fiddlers elbow and has been incredibly 'wicky' of late.

Yesterday CP kicked out a new double daily bearish 3 Out down (44%) putting price down as low as 1.5346 which is down in a major support zone for the pair. If the potential falling channel is forming, this could be the target for the pair and based on the trajectory this level could be hit in around 5 days time. We shall see.

Today CP kicked out a weak bullish candle which has 20% strength but its weakness comes form the r:r and past stats. Not very attractive and may provide further evidence of the large drop which may be aout to occur.

Daily outlook: I feel bearish on the pair.
Last edited by candlesurfer on Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:51 am

USD/CHF - Stalling Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-CHF Rolling Daily”.jpg


21 Oct 2010 Daily update: Yet another day of retracement yesterday as the longer term trend attempts to reassert itself. As suggested yesterday, juicy short pips were definately up for grabs as the pair dropped by about 100 in a day.

However, price on this pair did not get back to the south of MA10, finishing yesterday above it. This could be significant, as today price has bounced up off MA10 and is heading north. However a long upper shadow (wick) has formed and I think the longer term trend will reassert today with the bears returning to the driving seat.

So based on that, MA10 is the key level to watch, currently around 0.9600.

MA10 has definately flattened recently but not reversed.

No new candles.


USD/JPY - Flowing Downtrend with possible BoJ intervention

Preview of “X USD-JPY Rolling Daily”.jpg


21 Oct 2010 daily update: yesterday saw a retracement and retest of 80.85. This is repeatedly repected, with a bearish wedge formation appearing.

V weak new daily CP candle puts price down at 79.40... we'll see what happens as price needs to push over strong support at 80.85 to achieve this.

As usual I am staying clear as BoJ intervention is possible at any minute (am I becoming too fundamental?).
candlesurfer
 
Posts: 87
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:29 am

EUR/USD - Stalling Uptrend

Preview of “X EUR-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


22 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price yesterday again challenged 1.40. Placed my entry at what I thought was a far enough distance above this level to be fairly confident that I wouldn't catch a false break.

As it happens my entry got triggered at 1.4030, was in profit until 1.4050 but then reversed and price collapsed all the way down to the other side of 1.4000. As Mark says, this big round number has the bulls and bears caught in a proper tear up with each fighting as hard as the other.

Lesson learnt? Big round numbers potentially produce major indecision. Perhaps its better to wait for price to be more confident around these large numbers before jumping in. I may stay away from the pair until price is confident enough to close north of 1.4000 for at least a few days.

Price so far today is under 1.4000 yet again and seems to be retracing yesterdays drop. Sideways range on the pair is still intact, so could present buying opportunities at around 1.3700 and selling opps around 1.4000 giving a 300 pips wide range.

Daily outlook: Possible sideways range on the pair with top around 1.4000 and bottom around 1.3700. More indecision and pressure around 1.4000. Maybe best to stay away during this period of indecision around the big 1.4.


AUD/USD - Stalling Uptrend with possible Bearish wedge forming

Preview of “X AUD-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


22 Oct 2010 Daily update: Bearish wedge pattern still intact. MACD continues to be v bearish. No new CP signals but one from Wednesday put price down at around 0.9456.


Daily outlook: Watching for further evidence of bearish wedge and watching key support at 0.9660 as if breached price could get as low as 0.9456 over next few days. Price respecting underside of MA10 and falling upper edge of bearish wedge as resistance, further strengthening the possibility of a large drop over the next few days.


GBP/USD - Stalling Uptrend, Possible Falling Channel

Preview of “X GBP-USD Rolling Daily”.jpg


22 Oct 2010 Daily update: Falling channel formation still being respected. Wednesdays bearish candle did not play out but 1.5346 remains as a possible target for the pair.

MA10 has well and truly reversed, MACD poiting down and heading for zero line so I feel rather bearish and 1.5346 could be where the pair is heading. Based very roughly on the falling channel trajectory this could occur sometime next week.

Daily outlook: I continue to feel bearish on the pair.
Last edited by candlesurfer on Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:42 am

USD/CHF - Stalling Downtrend

Preview of “X USD-CHF Rolling Daily”.jpg



22 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price yesterday found the topside of MA10 as support once more and pushed up off it, ending the day quite far north within the falling channel.

Price so far today is undecided, a doji was forming when I looked. This could signal that price is feeling too exposed and feels better falling and below MA10 (overbought situation).

Will see if price gets back to challenge MA10 as support again or will continue to push off to challenge the top edge of falling channel.

MA10 has now reversed. MACD is supporting a slightly bullish mood although signal lines are still well below the zero line so I don't think trend exhaustion is occuring just yet and this could be short term.

No new candles.


USD/JPY - Flowing Downtrend with Bearish Wedge Forming and possible BoJ intervention


Preview of “X USD-JPY Rolling Daily”.jpg


22 Oct 2010 daily update: Price yesterday tested upper edge of falling resistance and also strong support at 80.85 before finishing the day well between the two. The bearish wedge formation is still being respected.
No new candles.
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Re: Daily Candle Trend Trading + CandlePro

Postby candlesurfer » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:25 am

EUR/USD - Stalling Uptrend




25 Oct 2010 Daily update: Price last week closed below 1.4000 on the daily candles but not before challenging it on the smaller time frames.

Sp far to day we have a fresh cahllenge of 1.4000 with price currently well above this level.

MA10 is looking like possible S/R as it provided resistance for the last two days of last week as price closed below and so far today has acted as support.

As learnt last week, around big round numbers there is always likely to be some tussles going on as half the crowd beleives price is too high and the other half believes price is about to reach the moon.

I said I would stay clear until E/U closes above 1.40 on the daily charts for a few days in a row and will stay true to that.

CP kicked out a new double hanging man (47%) which puts price down at 1.3805. Candle has poor r:r and in the perfomance report this is not the best of formations, so I remain slightly bearish on the pair but ultimately of course and as alwaysl price herself will decide how today unfolds.

Daily outlook: Possibly more indecision around 1.4000 pushing price either side. Waiting for a confident close above 1.40.


AUD/USD - Stalling Uptrend + Neutral Wedge Breach




25 Oct 2010 Daily update: Sideways Wedge pattern broken this morning. MACD flattening. No new CP signals.


Daily outlook: Watching to see if price makes it back to the former rising channel to resume trend. Price so far today broken upper limit of wedge and also above MA10. Will see if this is respected today or whether price just continues regardless.


GBP/USD - Stalling Uptrend, Possible Falling Channel




25 Oct 2010 Daily update: Falling channel formation just about breached this morning - will see at the end of the day how the price action plays out as this could return to finish the day back inside.

MA50 acting as support and has been respected for the past week. MA10 has reversed and is pointing down. Price is therefore trading at a very low relative position to its recent former levels. CP kicked out a double bearish candle, suggesting further drops may be possible. This would keep the falling channel intact as price on the candle formation is placed down at 1.5387. This is the other side of MA100 and could signify a complete reversal as this move would be likely to drag the MAs with it.

MACD is still looking bearish as well.

I felt last week that a low point on the pair could be reached at the end of this week if the falling channel is respected and have included 1.5387 as a target. Will see how price behaves but today there is nothing tradeable with this strategy.

Daily outlook: challenge of MA10 as S/R. Price could do a bearish dive off underside.
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