Decipher these Trading signals

[JohnR]

I signed up for a signals trading package, and found the first 2 days very spot on and profitable. I like to learn to fish for a lifetime, and was wondering if we could put our brains together and figure out what system would consistently yield these signals.

The signals are generated and posted at 500 GMT. They are then valid until 5pm EDT and should be closed at that time. There are EUR, GBP and CHF signals provided each day.

Since today's signals are close to expiring, I will post EUR as an example of past performance. I respect my subscription's provider's terms and will not violate my contract.

I thought it would be a good educational exercise for all of us to try to crack this system, and eventually create a system for our life-long profitability.

Mar 22nd 2010,
EUR -
Buy 1.3544 , SL 1.3504, TP 40 pips
Sell 1.3504 , SL 1.3544 , TP 40 pips

EUR is targetted 40 pips TP with 15 pip movement breakeven stop loss.
GBP and CHF are targetted 70 pips TP with 30 pip movement breakeven stop loss.

At 0900GMT (1 hours before signals), the 1H candle was O 1.3541 H1.3523 L1.3511.
Notes:
- At 1000GMT, all pending orders will be valid since the current tick would always be away from both B and S entry points.
- The Stop losses are the entry points of each other.

For today,
look at the Statement_032210.pdf attachment for all three signals I entered. Note that I closed the order early. I only waited for 5 hours, and was satisfied for the 70+ pips. If I had held on longer, GBP would have netted several more pips. This was obviously a very good day. Of course, I'm sure there will be draw-downs.

Anybody interested in this group study and more details can email me at johnrmask-fx@yahoo.com
I will not disclose the signal provider, as that would constitute spam.

[markelshark]

John, looks like a relatively basic breakout strategy (I sometimes call it a "wrapper" trade). If these came out at 05:00 gmt shouldn't the EU buy @ 1.3544 been tripped at 10:00 gmt (then stopped out)?

[JohnR]

You can look at my actual history for yesterday (attached PDF), that that buy at 1.3544 never got triggered. Of course, I woke up at 4:30am(1030GMT), and was technically a little late in inputting the signals.

Timing matters I guess.

And you're right, it does look like a breakout strategy of some sort since buy and sell levels are determined at 0500.

I'm experimenting with today's signals again today, and it's not looking so good so far. I have been stopped out on my cable and swissy so far.
I will post the final results later at the end of the day.

How can I determine this wrapper strategy for myself?

[markelshark]

You're doing the right things, namely trying to decipher them everyday. Look for some items of consistency like 1) is the buy/sell always the same # of pips away? 2) are the stops always the same, etc.

[JohnR]

Today's signals

Eur/Usd
Buy 1.3535
Sell 1.3500

Usd/Chf
Buy 1.0625
Sell 1.0593

Gbp/Usd
Buy 1.5068
Sell 1.5000

Check my attached report: -109.12
Yesterday was +85. So today is a minor draw-down, but not devastating.
Swissy has been losing both days so far, while EUR has been profitable on first 15pip targets both days. Cable today lost a big stop at -68 pips.

Things to ponder:
- Omit Swissy ?
- Less aggressive - just take first 15pip on EUR. However, the stop loss of 40 does not justify a 15 pip profit.
- found this link on a basic break-out strategy: http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/si ... out-system . It looks like these signals are similarly based.

I hope to have more profitable days to get back my $99 for the month. Looks highly likely. Just need to be patient to overcome bad days like today.

[JohnR]

3/24
Eur/Usd
Buy 1.3446
Sell 1.3360

Usd/Chf
Buy 1.0687
Sell 1.0607

Gbp/Usd
Buy 1.5024
Sell 1.4952

I stayed away from CHF this time, and adjusted my entries to only take the first 15pips. SUCCESS! Sell EUR 1.3360 and Sell GBP 1.4952 were both good for 15 pips each for a grand total of +30 pips today!
Of course we all know EUR tanked more than that today, but my primary purpose for these breakout signals is to get a decent 15 pips at a very high success rate. So, it looks like I may stick with 15pip range, and may be start increasing lots as my equity grows.
Well...done with my primary 30 pips for the day! On to other pip-hunting for the rest of the day.

[JohnR]

Enough said.

I've deciphered it and programmed my very first EA.

It's got a 90% winning for the month of Mar. Feb and Jan weren't that great. But cumulative from Jan to Mar, it's still up 20% net profit from a $1000 account.

The only weakness with this system is that the SL:TP is almost 2:1. It should be the other way around.
But you can work around it by quitting while you're ahead for the month...etc. I think 20% profit per month is doable.

[Mamur]

John,

Can you send me the name of the signal provider?

My e-mail is msadikov@yahoo.co.uk

Thank you,

Mamur