Signal posted on March 17, 2010, at 5:42 am GMT |
Morning and evening PipHutters! Sorry for the LONG post today. Before the normal recap/daily outlook/trading idea I wanted to re-introduce some trading tips with everyone. It’s worth the 30 seconds to read it, whether you agree or disagree, but you could always just scroll down to today’s signal :).
First off a reminder – forex is a tough gig and it is stacked against beginners in a lot of different ways. I’ve never sugarcoated that with anyone and never will. I get lots of emails each day: lots thanking me, some telling me horror stories about how they took some else’s signal without a stop-loss or an ill-advised trade on a whim and now their account is empty. Still other emails that ask me to provide my personal trades – even offering to pay me for them! And I’ve addressed that question before but I think it is worth discussing again because the point behind it is important. I can understand why this would be tempting in the short-term, basically having someone else trade for you, but it is really not doing you any favors in the long-run. You all know I love analogies so lets talk about sailing.
Trading Forex is a lot like competitive sailing – really!
There are different wind patterns (or trends). You have to adjust your technique whether you are going with the wind or against it. On top of wind you have to add currents into the mix. You have to know all the parts of the sailboat, know how to operate different tools and machines in case something goes wrong. Then there is the depth of the water, the height of the waves, etc etc. And in competitive sailing there are dozens of others boats in the water with you. Now take that and multiply it by a LOT. At any given time there are literally thousands of different things influencing the markets. Would you expect to be a world-class sailor in a couple of days of practicing in your plastic dryboat? Of course not! And if someone else says “today the wind is blowing south: you need to use this much sail, tack at X degrees and bring these tools” that’s great and that helps – but what if that person is no longer around to help? Or what if the wind changes direction mid-voyage and that helper is onshore, not able to give you directions? That’s why PipHut’s signals are designed to help you trade for yourself, not trade for you :). I hope that makes sense.
I don’t tell you this to scare you (well maybe a little), but I just always want to remind people every now again that there is a lot that you don’t know. And that I don’t know. You and I constantly have to be learning and improving ourselves and, most importantly, keeping our equity alive to trade another day! Well I could go on for pages about this but let me point you very quickly to some (I think) helpful articles I’ve written in the past. Hopefully these articles will give a few of you some helpful hints to get you over the hump:
Money Management the PipHut way
Win More Trades
How to Succeed in the Forex Market
Achieve Forex Success in 2010 – this one is almost more of a warning/inspirational note!
and of course:
FAQ for PipHut’s Signals
READ ME: How to Use PipHut’s free signals
and by the way, journalling is one of the best things I ever did for my trading. Every trade I took I would save a screenshot of my chart, type up my rationale for entering the trade and my stop-loss and targets. Kudos to the people who are still doing that in the forums.
Recap: Our conservative trade was never reached yesterday and I personally never took the aggressive sell. As I mentioned in the comments fields the bulls had pushed the pair up 70+ pips in a few hours with the largest lower wick only 7 pips! The only thing aggressive about that at that time were the bulls and I didn’t want to stand in front of a freight train. For those who did, as always, I hope you used good money management and of course stop losses!
Daily Outlook: Well another bullish day on top of an already bullish forecast? That’s right – I’m long hunting! As you can see from the chart there are two rising trend supports to look for and some fibonacci levels. My preference for today is the 61.8% fibonacci, currently just above 1.3690. 1.3800 is the key short term resistance and I would consider selling buying a break above this level.
Trading Idea: Primary trade is a long in the vicinity of 1.3690 (61.8% fib), preferably near rising trend support. Targets from 1.3690 are 1.3725, 1.3750, 1.3775 and 1.3800. A secondary trade is to sell a break of the important resistance at 1.3800.
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Recap: Welcome back for another day PipHutters! I made some good pips yesterday off the false breakout above 1.3800. For those of you who are curious what I was looking for in the “false breakout”: 1) first off 1.38 was strong resistance so I was looking in the first place (if the s/r is not strong I don’t bother looking regardless of the other signals), 2) pair failed to close above 1.3800 on the 30m and 1h and 3) there was a shooting star on the 1h and bearish candle wicks on the 30m.
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