Tagged "AUD/USD"

9-12-08

3:26a GMT – AUD/USD has a nice bullish RSI divergence and the AUD received news today that indicated they might not have to lower interest rates as soon as previously thought. This points toward a possible further bounce in the pair and I see that extending as far as resistance between .8165-.8195.

Trading Idea: Below .8195 shorts are favored back to the targets .8095, .8005 and eventually .7915. If .8200 is broken look for a challenge of .8315.

(click to enlarge)

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator
Discuss this signal with me and fellow traders at the new Forex Discussion Groups

7-31-08

4:26a GMT – AUD/USD has dropped about 80 pips since my last AUD/USD forex signal, and I think that those losses will continue. Pair is still trapped in an extremely bearish channel (yellow lines below). The biggest threat to the trade is an oversold 60M and 4H RSI and close to it on the daily charts. I would look for something of a bounce to cool off the oversold levels possibly to 0.9475 or even 0.9550 if the US stocks crash tomorrow. If no breaking news comes out a horizontal movement could occur as traders take profit before the weekend.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 0.9550 with targets at 0.9475, 0.9425 and 0.9355.

(click to enlarge)

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator
Discuss this signal with me and fellow traders at the new Forex Discussion Groups

7-30-08

3:18a GMT – AUD/USD pair remains bearish on both the daily, 4H and 60M price charts. However there is strong intraday support at 0.9575 that I expect to stall a drop below. 60M RSI is heavily oversold and has just crossed above 30 indicating a bounce and the RSI on the 4H charts is showing a bullish divergence as well. Depending on how strong resistance is above we may see a return immediately to the downside at resistance levels or we might see a tight range develop between 0.9550-0.9475 pending the unemployment news from the US Fed.

Trading Idea: short term I expect a bounce to the yellow trend resistance currently at 0.9535, or to daily resistance at 0.9550. Midterm look for a re-challenge of 0.9475 and, if broken, a test of 0.9425.

(click to enlarge)

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator
Discuss this signal with me and fellow traders at the new Forex Discussion Groups

7-2-08

19:42 GMT – The overall structure of the AU pair remains bullish and I will look to be significant dips in the price action, preferably around the .9550 support area.

Trading Idea: Look for a sustained bounce or a bullish candlestick reversal around the .9550 support area (though a stab toward .9525 or higher at .9580 is possible) with long targets at .9585, .9615 and .9645.

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator
Click here to see recent Technical Analysis posts
Click here to see recent Free Forex Signals (signals that I trade and are performance tracked)

6-15-08

00:36a GMT – AUD/USD has dropped considerably over the past few weeks and I am looking for more of a drop in the coming week as the pair enters a range between .9315 and .9415. Current resistance is around .9415 and we could see a rise to that before another fall.

Trading Idea: On a bearish reversal candlestick short targets will be .9370, .9345 and .9330. If resistance is broken look for a return to a wider channel top at .9475 or .9500.

UPDATE: No bearish reversal candlestick signal was seen on the H1 or H4 charts so no trade was entered. Good thing too because pair rose over 100 pips.

RESULT: no trade

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator
Click here to see recent Technical Analysis posts
Click here to see recent Free Forex Signals (signals that I trade and are performance tracked)

6-9-08

18:33 GMT – AUD/USD is dropping rapidly towards its support level around .9475. Gold has been dropping today (you can see it as the red line on the chart below) and the high correlation between gold and AU is causing the pair to drop as well. I expect weakness of the USD to keep the pair afloat and to turn the pair around, not too mention a drop in gold usually does not last long. RSI is also well below 30 on the 60M charts.

Trading Idea: long above .9475 with stops below. Targets are .9540, .9590 and .9615 for starters. Below this level look for targets at .9440 and .9410.

UPDATE – Pair bounced and rose about 40 pips before piecing back down (PipHut booked a quick 25 pips off the rise). A hidden divergence has appeared on the 60M RSI which indicates more losses so I would sit this one out for now.

PipHut Result: +25 pips

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator

6-9-08

3:34a GMT – Part of being a successful trader is looking not only your own “comfort” chart time but also looking at the bigger picture as well. This week I chose to post my daily chart analysis for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY. I do the analysis on all the pairs I trade, and recommend you do the same for the “big picture” but don’t have time to post them all.

Want to see a different pair next week? Post your comments below!

EUR/USD: Since late April the EUR/USD has been trading in a 1.58-1.53 range. If you back out for the year, however, you see that technically speaking the pair has only had a brief retracement on the Euro’s rise. A close below 1.53 would be necessary to open the door for more losses. The fundamentals support the Euro’s rise too with Trichet stating that the ECB may raise rates as soon as the end of the month (talk about a leading indicator). On the daily short, in the short term, we see the two-day rise that Trichet’s comments caused. The pair has yet to break the 1.5820 high necessary to open the door to a 1.59 and 1.60 test. In short, the daily charts are bullish and we will look to buy on dips.

USD/JPY: UJ looks poised for more gains as the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows as many Elliot Wave theorists were calling for a run done after a possible third wave. On the daily chart the pair has the 10, 20, 30, 50 EMAs lined up in an uptrend and the price action has closed above the 100-day EMA several times in the past weeks. Also pair has just bounced off the trend line support (blue line below) and is again on the rise. A challenge of support at 106.00 looks likely with the break challenging 107.00 We will look to buy on dips.

AUD/USD: Pair gained ground last week for another test of .9640, which remains strong resistance for the pair. Though gold (red line on chart) has been dropping since its March high over 1000, general USD weakness has allowed the Aussie to continue to gain against the greenback. The MACD is just flipping to a buy signal but I will wait for a further dip to the .9500 or .9550 trend line support area for a buying opportunity.

CAD/USD: Pair is returning to the top of its .9830-1.0275 range as oil (red line on chart) continues to soar last week, signaling a possible return to the downside with any positive USD news at all. Oil and the loonie share a high correlation. Would look for selling opportunities around a bearish candlestick reversal signal above 1.0250, especially if oil continues to rise this week, however a bullish hidden divergence on the RSI gives me pause. I’m sitting on the sidelines of this one until a better direction is evident.

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator

6-6-08

00:55 GMT – … must come down. Except in the Forex world ;). However, with AUD/USD approaching solid resistance and overbought hourlies we have a decent chart setup. In the long term I expect the AUD/USD to break the 1.9660 resistance and confirm the uptrend (until the situation in the US turns around or the Australian economy plummets) but in the short- to mid-term I expect the pair to drop back down to channel support. Trend resistance is currently at 0.9630 with intermediate resistance around .9615.

Trading Idea: Enter short on a bearish candlestick close to .9625 resistance with targets at .9585, .9545 and .9515. Stops should be above .9640. If resistance is clearly broken look for some consolidation and then a test of .9660.

UPDATE – 5:27a GMT 6-6-08 – pair is consolidating its gains underneath the .9615 support currently. No bearish sell signal yet, and not close enough to resistance for my taste.

UPDATE – 16:58 MT 6-6-08 – pair never got close to the .9625 resistance, though did start to fall this morning before bad US NFP data sent the dollar plummeting and our resistance line was broken with no bearish signal.

Result: 0 pips

Analysis: Good no trade, though this was a very solid chart setup.

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator

6-4-08

18:12 GMT – AUD/USD has been caught in a bearish channel beginning on 5/18 and I expect trend resistance currently at 1.9630 to hold and repel any stabs upward. RSI also crashed off its bearish channel resistance (near 70) and pair appears to be reversing down. I expect the the pair to encounter firm support around .9550 and would cover any bounce off of this until the charts give us a directional bias at that level.

Trading Idea: Wait for bearish candlestick to confirm trend reversal and enter short around .9620 with targets at .9675 and .9660.

UPDATE – 21:36 GMT – both targets hit for 65 pips. Will enter short again if pair breaks .9550.

Result: +65 pips

Analysis: Good trade. At the same time a single long wick touched resistance the pair also hit 70 AND RSI resistance and then began a bearish RSI divergence.

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator

6-3-08

19:08 GMT – AUD/USD got heavily sold off thanks in large part to the Fed’s comments about not letting the dollar get too weak. In the short-term, especially with the Dow still struggling to hold any gains I see support at .9510 holding strong against any attempts to break through it. There is also an RSI divergence on the 60M charts further supporting bulls for more gains.

Trading Idea: Long above .9510 with targets at .9540, .9570 and .95610.

Update: AUD/USD has made a clear break of .9510 without giving a bullish reversal candlestick above .9510. Signal is cancelled and we will look to sell on rallies.

Signal Review:  Got the bounce right just the placement wrong. Pair has made lower highs and lower lows for past few days and trend lines on below chart shows it is caught in a bearish channel. Missed that one. The bearish doji above support would have provided a nice entry point as well before a 90+ (so far) pip rise.

Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator
Click here to see recent Technical Analysis posts
Click here to see recent Free Forex Signals (signals that I trade and are performance tracked)