Tagged "bounce"

12-4-09

5:41a GMT – Yesterday’s signals produced a trade (which is still open) at 1.5050 (currently a little bit in the profit) though I have tightened the stop as 4h charts are leaning toward a bearish consolidation pattern. Another reason I have tightened the stop considerably is because on the daily chart a bearish shooting star was produced so today could be a bearish profit-taking day for the markets. The AUD/USD trade I mentioned in the comments produced good pips as well :).

As far as yesterday’s news went Bernanke again talked about protecting the dollar – but the markets have heard this many times from Bernanke and never have his actions matched his words. In fact his actions (historically low interest rates) have said the exact opposite: that he at the moment cares very little about the value of the USD. One interesting thing he did say at his Senate meetings was that he would consider using interest rates to “burst” asset bubbles before they got too big.

Daily Outlook: Even as I write this we are seeing a bit of a bounce in the EUR/USD, which is good for our trade, but the signals for today are a bit mixed. The bearish shooting star on the daily chart yesterday and the potential double-top at 1.5140 are signals for a potential return to channel bottom around 1.4880. I will keep my long open from yesterday with a tight stop, though a break of support at 1.5025 will open the short-term bearish challenge of 1.4970. If it reaches this level I will look for bullish candlesticks to buy on.

News Events: Be weary of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data and the US unemployment data due to come out around 13:30 GMT. Markets are usually choppy around news events.

Trading Idea: On a break of 1.5025 look for a challenge of 1.4970 support, around which I will look for buying opportunities with targets at 1.5000, 1.5030 and 1.5065.

(click to enlarge)

Update Graph: Big drop today. Wanted to post this longer term chart to give you some perspective on the drop. Looks like a better buying opp as it approaches that lower trend support doesn’t it?

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11-24-09

7:10a GMT – I’ve got some exciting additions to PipHut to announce – I was going to just tack them on to the bottom of this signal but thought they were exciting enough to warrant a second post so keep your eyes open for a another post a few minutes after this one.

Yesterday we did indeed get a nice bounce off of the channel resistance and I went short after a bearish engulfing on the 15:00 1h charts (with an entry at 1.4980). Took half the profits at 1.4950 and covered the rest at 1.4915.

Daily Outlook: As you can see from the 4-hour chart below we have dropped back into the middle of the short-term bearish channel (which is still in the middle of a longer-term bull channel). I am still net bearish as long as this short-term bear channel is intact and 1.5050 remains to cap any gains. Also, make sure to mind the news events today. A few big events that could make staying out of the markets the best choice at certain times.

Trading Idea: I wouldn’t buy or sell in the middle of this channel as a proper risk/reward would be hard to obtain, so I will wait for a rise to 1.4990 for another shorting opportunity with short targets at 1.4950, 1.4915 and 1.4880.

(click to enlarge)

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11-13-09

6:26a GMT – What is it about Fridays that makes me not want to trade? Huge drop in the EUR/USD yesterday that kicked out my stop for a small loss (that’s why we always use stops and use good money management, right?) The pair did take an initial bounce of of 1.4950, good for any scalpers, but reversed just short of our first target under 1.4985. We also have some big event risks coming up shortly this morning on Eurozone and German economic numbers. I’ve noticed that frequently before a news event big market makers push the market in the opposite direction that the news will push it before a event risk – presumably to stop hunt. If that is the case we could see a big retracement in the pair tomorrow.

The other scenario I see as likely is a consolidation between 1.4930-1.4810.

Trading Idea: Given the event risk, the big jump yesterday and the general lack of clear direction in the market I will be sitting on the sidelines tomorrow. For aggressive traders I might look for a sell signal between resistance zones at 1.4900-1.4930 with targets at 1.4870, 1.4840 and 1.4810.

Side note: I’ve got some exciting stuff I’m working on this weekend for PipHut for you. I don’t want to ruin the surprise or get your hopes up but I should have something pretty neat for you on Monday if all goes well.

(click to enlarge)

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8-20-08

3:26a GMT – While daily analysis remains extremely bearish (except that they are heavily oversold) the weekly view offers a different view below. As you can see despite the recent selling of the pair the uptrend remains very much intact and is actually at strong monthly resistance. Yellow trend line below is drawn on the monthly chart if you are wondering why there are some breakthroughs. While my overall bias remains down pending new news out of Europe or the US (after a slight rise to ease oversold levels) this weekly view gives a good amount of reason to pause.

Trading Idea: the best trade here might be no trade until a clear direction is given, however I will be looking for candlestick entry signals near support and resistance levels. On bullish signals I would look for long targets all the way up to 1.5350. On a bearish breakthrough look for short targets down to 1.4475.

(click to enlarge)

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8-13-08

22:21 GMT – GU remains bearish on all time frames but is approaching strong weekly support just as the pair is reaching highly oversold levels on the weekly chart as well (it is also oversold on everything from 1h-weekly). On signs of bouncing off the support at 1.8500 this might be a good opportunity to hedge your shorts on a bounce back to 1.9000.

Trading Idea: Look for stalling and candlestick signals on the 4H and daily charts at 1.8500 with long targets back to 1.9000 as the oversold levels reset.

(click to enlarge)

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7-30-08

3:18a GMT – AUD/USD pair remains bearish on both the daily, 4H and 60M price charts. However there is strong intraday support at 0.9575 that I expect to stall a drop below. 60M RSI is heavily oversold and has just crossed above 30 indicating a bounce and the RSI on the 4H charts is showing a bullish divergence as well. Depending on how strong resistance is above we may see a return immediately to the downside at resistance levels or we might see a tight range develop between 0.9550-0.9475 pending the unemployment news from the US Fed.

Trading Idea: short term I expect a bounce to the yellow trend resistance currently at 0.9535, or to daily resistance at 0.9550. Midterm look for a re-challenge of 0.9475 and, if broken, a test of 0.9425.

(click to enlarge)

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7-1-08

6:21a GMT – Support for the EUR/USD at 1.5715 is being tested for the second time on the 4H chart after a good bounce on 6/26-6/27. Pair has been crashing against this support for the past 24 hours and I expect it to hold.

Trading Idea: Long positions above 1.5715 are favored while support holds. Targets at 1.5745, 1.5780 and 1.5830. If support is broken look for a return to 1.5675 and 1.5615.

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6-26-08

6:51a GMT – EUR/USD is bouncing upward off a multiday trend support line despite hawkish comments from the Fed. The ECB’s actions are expected to favor the Euro more than the Fed’s words and we will look for candlestick entry points near support currently at 1.5585.

Trading Idea: Look for a dip and then a bullish reversal candlestick to enter the trade for another test of 1.5800.

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6-13-08

1:56a GMT – I expect another bounce in the EUR/USD pair as it heads down to its monthly low of 1.5284. As long as the pair closes above that I will continue to expect a bounce. In the short term I’m looking at support around the 1.5385 area. If I do not see a bullish reversal candlestick in that area I will look for the 1.5284 area.

Trading Idea: Long targets include 1.5450, 1.5570 and possibly 1.5600. If support is broken look for a challenge of 1.5250 and 1.5210.

UPDATE – Pair charged through short term support on the 4H charts with no bullish candlestick reversal. However pair did bounce off of 1.5284 just as the RSI touched 30 and did give a bullish reversal candlestick. Pair has risen for about 50-70 pips after that bounce and we will see where we end up after the weekend.

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6-3-08

19:08 GMT – AUD/USD got heavily sold off thanks in large part to the Fed’s comments about not letting the dollar get too weak. In the short-term, especially with the Dow still struggling to hold any gains I see support at .9510 holding strong against any attempts to break through it. There is also an RSI divergence on the 60M charts further supporting bulls for more gains.

Trading Idea: Long above .9510 with targets at .9540, .9570 and .95610.

Update: AUD/USD has made a clear break of .9510 without giving a bullish reversal candlestick above .9510. Signal is cancelled and we will look to sell on rallies.

Signal Review:  Got the bounce right just the placement wrong. Pair has made lower highs and lower lows for past few days and trend lines on below chart shows it is caught in a bearish channel. Missed that one. The bearish doji above support would have provided a nice entry point as well before a 90+ (so far) pip rise.

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