Tagged "bounce"

6-2-08

1:36a GMT – AUD/USD is approaching strong support at .9510-.9500. Concerns are an RSI that shows a strong downtrend and a possibly oversold RSI as well.

Trading Idea: Look for a bullish candlestick around .9510 support with long targets at 1.9530, 1.9560 and 1.9580. If support is broken look for further short targets at 1.9475 and 1.9430.

UPDATE: We had a good bullish candlestick with long wick at 02:00a GMT. First target was hit at .9560 for 35 pips.

UPDATE: Took profit around 50 pip on all lots. You can see an updated chart here: http://piphut.com/2008/06/technical-analysis-audusd-bounce-expected/

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6-1-08

23:14 GMT – GBP/USD is approaching several possible support levels, the strongest of which is around 1.9680. I expect the currency to fall to this level and then bounce off of support. Concerns are more gains for the USD. Rising RSI trend line supports the trade.

Trading Idea: The area of support is between 1.9700 and 1.9680 and is strongest at the latter. Look for a bullish candlestick to confirm the trade. Look for targets at 1.9740, 1.9780 and then 1.9810. If 1.9670 is broken look for further downside at 1.9650 and 1.9620.

UPDATE – 6-2-08, 16:43p, GU has smashed through all levels of support and now I’m looking for short opportunities near former support (now resistance). No bullish candlestick ever confirmed trade. Good no trade.

Result: 0 pips

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5-28-08

6:52a GMT – GBP/USD is testing trend support (over the past couple of trading days) and I expect the general uptrend to continue. GBP got oversold and should recover.

Trading Idea: Look for bullish candlestick to confirm the trade and then enter long with targets at 1.9790 and 1.9825. If support is broken look for further losses with targets at 1.9730 and 1.9700.

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5-28-08

GMT – GBP/JPY is approaching trend support (over the past three days) currently around 205.35

Trading Idea: Look for bullish candlestick to confirm trade, then go long with targets at 205.8 and 206.1. If trend support is broken look for targets at 205.00 and 204.80.

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5-28-08

6:28a GMT – A bullish doji is forming on the USD/JPY pair near former resistance trend line (now support).

Trading Idea: If the candlestick closes as a doji on the 60M charts (30 minutes left) I will buy 2 lots, one with a 20 pip target, the other with a 40 pip target and move to break even on the first limit.

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5-27-08

00:57a GMT – EU is approaching strong multi-day trend channel support currently around 1.5675. Despite fundamentals I expect a bounce off this for at least 30-50 pips.

Trading Idea: wait for bullish candlestick close to confirm the trade then enter long. First target is around 1.5700 and then 1.5725. If no bullish candlestick close occurs or support is broken then look for 1.5630 and 1.5560

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5-27-08

23:05 GMT – AUD/USD is touching the 60M trend support line that has been tested several times over past weeks. Fundamentals regarding oil decreasing and stocks rallying give pause but I expect support will hold

Trading Idea: wait for bullish candlestick close to confirm the trade then look for .962 and .964 as targets.

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5-23-08

7:12a GMT – Pair is coming down on two support levels after breaking higher from its already bullish channel. First level of support is the former resistance line that was broken on 5/22. Second is the support (closest line in green on chart below). From a channel which is still intact. RSI is also approaching the bottom of its bullish channel.

Trading Idea: I will wait for a bullish candlestick to confirm the trade and then enter long. First target is 1.98 then 1.985 and higher. If it breaks support levels look for 1.975 then 1.97.

Result: +80 pips

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7:46a GMT – USD/CHF is dropping rapidly to the rising trendline support now at 1.0420. The RSI hourlies show the same picture with the RSI dropping to multi-day support.

Trading Idea: look for candlestick entry and then buy above support with stop below support. First target around 1.0450 and second around 1.049.

UPDATE – 21:44 GMT – no bullish candlestick every confirmed the bounce and the pair charged through support. One candle almost gave us a bullish engulfing but ended up dropping 60 pips in the same hour to produce a very bearish long wick on the chart. Good no trade or a breakout trade to the downside.

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7:15a GMT – Pair has reached resistance in the form of a downward trendline that is currently just above .7750. Possible divergence in the RSI hourlies makes me nervous but this is the third time that resistance has been tested over the past 30 days.

Trading Idea: wait for candlestick signal then sell near resistance. Volatility is low so a 20-25 pip stop above resistance should suffice.

UPDATE – 21:47 GMT – No bearish candlestick confirming the bounce off of resistance was ever seen and no trade was entered. Pair is currently consolidating around .7750 as the market decides which direction this one is going. Most 60M support and resistance lines have been trashed. Volatile entry orders above and below might be a good way to take advantage of this scenario and treat it like a squeeze play.