Tagged "candlestick"

12-4-09

5:41a GMT – Yesterday’s signals produced a trade (which is still open) at 1.5050 (currently a little bit in the profit) though I have tightened the stop as 4h charts are leaning toward a bearish consolidation pattern. Another reason I have tightened the stop considerably is because on the daily chart a bearish shooting star was produced so today could be a bearish profit-taking day for the markets. The AUD/USD trade I mentioned in the comments produced good pips as well :).

As far as yesterday’s news went Bernanke again talked about protecting the dollar – but the markets have heard this many times from Bernanke and never have his actions matched his words. In fact his actions (historically low interest rates) have said the exact opposite: that he at the moment cares very little about the value of the USD. One interesting thing he did say at his Senate meetings was that he would consider using interest rates to “burst” asset bubbles before they got too big.

Daily Outlook: Even as I write this we are seeing a bit of a bounce in the EUR/USD, which is good for our trade, but the signals for today are a bit mixed. The bearish shooting star on the daily chart yesterday and the potential double-top at 1.5140 are signals for a potential return to channel bottom around 1.4880. I will keep my long open from yesterday with a tight stop, though a break of support at 1.5025 will open the short-term bearish challenge of 1.4970. If it reaches this level I will look for bullish candlesticks to buy on.

News Events: Be weary of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data and the US unemployment data due to come out around 13:30 GMT. Markets are usually choppy around news events.

Trading Idea: On a break of 1.5025 look for a challenge of 1.4970 support, around which I will look for buying opportunities with targets at 1.5000, 1.5030 and 1.5065.

(click to enlarge)

Update Graph: Big drop today. Wanted to post this longer term chart to give you some perspective on the drop. Looks like a better buying opp as it approaches that lower trend support doesn’t it?

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12-03-09

6:14a GMT – EUR/USD did indeed bounce off of yesterdays signal’s 1.5050 support and would have provided a quick 50 pips (possibly more, it’s at 1.5107 right now). Unfortunately I didn’t enter a long as I was waiting for a bullish confirmation candlestick to confirm the long signal. I know some of you did take that long and are now in the profit.

Daily Outlook: For the rest of us, I will look to reset longs with a similar trading strategy around 1.5050-1.5030 support zone. Pair remains within the the bullish channel I showed you yesterday after recently making a new 2009 high – so there is little reason to look for shorts at the moment.

Trading Idea: Looking for entry signal between 1.5050-1.5030 support zone. Targets from 1.5030 at 1.5060, 1.5095 and 1.5130.

Event Risk: Lots of news today (thanks for the reminder Nnagozie)! Be cautious around these times as markets could be thin and volatile. Starting at 12:45 GMT we have the EUR interest rate decision, initial jobless claims, nonfarm productivity, and Trichet and Bernanke speaking. No major changes predicted but the dovish/hawkish comments always can move the markets on thin volume. To read more about these events check out the Forex Calendar here.

(click to enlarge)

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12-2-09

5:45a GMT – No trade was entered from yesterday as I held off for the news (which had very little immediate impact). Which is fine with me – as many of you know I prefer less trades with a higher win percentage rather than trying to make lots of trades. Many of you yesterday did ignore the news however and entered long at the 05:00a bullish hammer which pierced our support at 1.4980 – a move which would have yielded 100+ pips within just a few hours.

Daily Outlook: 4-hour chart below, zoomed out so we can see the bullish uptrend of the last few months that we find ourselves in. With many speculative traders attempting to short the pair as it approaches its 2009 high I will continue my strategy of looking to buy on dips. I’d prefer the  1.5015 or 1.4980 supports to buy on but the uptrend is strong right now so I will also keep my eyes open for bullish candles around 1.5050 support. There is USD news event (non-farm payroll) at 13:15 GMT so I will stay out of markets around these times. For more details on it visit the forex calendar here.

Trading Idea: From 1.5015 support targets are 1.5045, 1.5080, 1.5110 and 1.5140. Will also look for a solid entry reason around 1.5050 (such as a reversal candlestick from the candlestick alert service here) as well as uptrend is fairly strong right now, but would still prefer a solid dip to buy into.

(click to enlarge)

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No signals for the EUR/USD pair today as US Banks are closed for Thanksgiving holiday. From wikipedia:

“Thanksgiving Day is a harvest festival celebrated primarily in Canada and the United States. Traditionally, it is a time to give thanks for the harvest and express gratitude in general.”

No need to be from the US to celebrate this holiday – take a little time out to say “thanks” to the people who are important in your life and for all that you have!

Of course PipHut’s Forex Candlestick Signal Service is still running so feel free to check in there for candlestick alerts. Also you can catch up on some of the Learn Forex articles, post in the forums or feel free to discuss your day’s trades in the comments below as usual!

Best,

Mark

I’m proud to roll out a few new services for PipHutters today, services that I think you will find extremely useful to help you trade better. Some of these services you may have noticed recently, others I bet you have not…

By far the most exciting of the new announcements, welcome the Candlestick Alert Service! No matter how good a trader you are sometimes you miss candlestick signals. The best of us do it. Not anymore!

What this little gem does is monitor the 30m and 1h charts of the EUR/USD and show you if any bullish or bearish candlestick signals have been detected! Now this is still in BETA, so I want to remind people that the presentation might still be a little rough around the edges but that is what I need your feedback for!

Right now the service will only detect candlesticks on the 30m and 1h of the EURUSD and I’m starting with only the doji, shooting star, hammer, inverted hammer and hanging man. Once I’m sure it is detecting those properly I will begin to roll out other patterns as well..

Click here to visit the Candlestick Alert Service

What could go better with the Candlestick Alert Service than a Candlestick Quick Reference guide? Not much! This is pretty short right now, because I wanted to only display candles that the alert service is currently detecting (see above for list). But on the quick reference guide if you click on the image or name of any candle it will bring you to a more detailed page.

Click here to visit the Candlestick Reference Guide.

I’ve had quite a few people ask me recently for a forex market hours tool, to see what markets are open and closed. Ask and you shall receive! Pretty self-explanatory. Check it out.

Click here to visit the Forex Market Hours page.

Yes, I know PipHut already had forums but, to be honest, I hated them. They were clunky, looked bad, were hard to navigate. I think these new forums (hopefully you agree) will be much easier for everyone to use. I know that the comments section of the posts are easier (and in many cases better) for discussing the day’s trading, but there are some things much easily discussed in a forum, such as trading systems that you can refer back to, ongoing conversations about a news event, commodities, OR if you want to post a chart or keep a journal thread going.

By the way, if you start a thread and aren’t getting much traction just let me know, I’ll post a link to it front and center on the main site and give you plenty of traffic.

Click here to visit the Candlestick Reference Guide.

6-27-08

5:50a GMT – USD/CHF gave a strong bullish reversal doji candlestick on the 4H charts last period indicating a possible reversal in the USD decline. The signal comes after a 200 pip decline over the day and near support at 1.0225.

Trading Idea: To confirm the trade the next candlestick (ending at 08:00a GMT) needs to close above the previous candlesticks high at 1.0260. More aggressive traders could enter long now but I prefer to wait until the following candlestick confirms the direction change. Look for long targets at 1.0320, 1.0350, and 1.0395.

Stops should be placed below the bottom doji wick (currently at 1.0218) with a little room to breath. Risk is about 40-50 pips with a reward of almost 180 pips.

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6-3-08

5:56a GMT – Bullish hammer is forming minutes before candlestick close on the 05:00a candlestick GMT. If bullish hammer (wick is twice as long as body) does close then it would indicate a reversal pattern. Since this is right on a support line (in green) I will enter long two lots.

Update – Nice 130-pip rise from the the bullish signal entry to the top of the channel. Image below.

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7:46a GMT – USD/CHF is dropping rapidly to the rising trendline support now at 1.0420. The RSI hourlies show the same picture with the RSI dropping to multi-day support.

Trading Idea: look for candlestick entry and then buy above support with stop below support. First target around 1.0450 and second around 1.049.

UPDATE – 21:44 GMT – no bullish candlestick every confirmed the bounce and the pair charged through support. One candle almost gave us a bullish engulfing but ended up dropping 60 pips in the same hour to produce a very bearish long wick on the chart. Good no trade or a breakout trade to the downside.

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7:15a GMT – Pair has reached resistance in the form of a downward trendline that is currently just above .7750. Possible divergence in the RSI hourlies makes me nervous but this is the third time that resistance has been tested over the past 30 days.

Trading Idea: wait for candlestick signal then sell near resistance. Volatility is low so a 20-25 pip stop above resistance should suffice.

UPDATE – 21:47 GMT – No bearish candlestick confirming the bounce off of resistance was ever seen and no trade was entered. Pair is currently consolidating around .7750 as the market decides which direction this one is going. Most 60M support and resistance lines have been trashed. Volatile entry orders above and below might be a good way to take advantage of this scenario and treat it like a squeeze play.