Tagged "channel"

9-25-08

3:26a GMT – My last signal was a buy at 1.4600. Close that for a 100-pip gain. The horrible housing data in the US actually gave some traders the glimmer of hope that a bottom is forming in the housing market. Plus Congress is actively discussing bailout options to loosen the credit crunch for home buyers. Together some traders see a stronger US housing market in the long-term future.

Technically the pair stalled about 1.4880, bounced off 1.4600 and now seems confined between 1.4750-1.4600.

Trading Idea: With the topside failure I am looking for selling opp around 1.4750-1.4765. Look for a bearish reversal signal in this range with short targets favored down to 1.4600 and 1.4550. If resistance is broken look for a re-test of 1.4800.

(click to enlarge)

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8-6-08

5:00a GMT – The monthly/weekly outlook for EUR/USD remains to the upside, but the daily and especially the 4h charts are showing clear bearish patterns. In the short to mid-term I favor the downside with a possible rise to the red resistance trend line currently around 1.5575 before testing lows again. 4h RSI is just crosses back from oversold but the 60M and daily have plenty of room to fall.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.5550 with targets at 1.5515 and 1.5435.

(click to enlarge)

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8-3-08

17:18 GMT – The GU pair is giving off mixed signals on Sunday afternoon. Overall I expect the downside to hold out on both the 4H and the Daily charts but I will look to sell rallies. Their is a bullish RSI divergence on the 4H charts that indicates a possible rise in the pair to resistance at 1.9800, 1.9840 or even (if the news is strong enough) to the top of the channel resistance (yellow lines below) currently around 1.9875.

Trading Idea: short favored on rallies with targets ultimately down to 1.9675.

(click to enlarge)

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8-1-08

3:26a GMT – Pair briefly spiked today on slower US GDP growth than expected by big money immediately brought that down to previous levels as the picture in the UK is not much better. 1.9840 is our first level of resistance with 1.9905 holding the second resistance point. Pair is still caught in a bearish channel (yellow lines below) and fundmentals support continued GBP weakness. Consolidation over the past days has relieved oversold levels and opened up a fresh downside.

Trading Idea: shorts preferred below 1.9850 with targets at 1.9785, 1.9755 and ultimately 1.9705.

(click to enlarge)

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7-31-08

4:26a GMT – AUD/USD has dropped about 80 pips since my last AUD/USD forex signal, and I think that those losses will continue. Pair is still trapped in an extremely bearish channel (yellow lines below). The biggest threat to the trade is an oversold 60M and 4H RSI and close to it on the daily charts. I would look for something of a bounce to cool off the oversold levels possibly to 0.9475 or even 0.9550 if the US stocks crash tomorrow. If no breaking news comes out a horizontal movement could occur as traders take profit before the weekend.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 0.9550 with targets at 0.9475, 0.9425 and 0.9355.

(click to enlarge)

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7-28-08

14:51 GMT – The GU pair stayed within the triangular breakout pattern overnight (from my last signal), rising to the of channel resistance (yellow lines below) where it is now. I still expect that signal to hold to hold true as the pattern in the same. In the short term I expect the price action to return to the triangle channel bottom (blue line) currently around 1.9875.

Trading Idea: Short-term shorts preferred below yellow channel trend line below, with targets at 1.9915, 1.9885 and 1.9855.

(click to enlarge)

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7-23-08

3:26a GMT – GBP/USD is approaching intraday support on the 4H and daily charts at the bottom of its bullish channel (blue lines on chart below). We also have possible daily support at 1.9835 and this area of double support might provide a good bounce on the pair. Possible event risk at 6:45a GMT with French Consumer Spending (a weak Euro could support the dollar across the board) and the Bank of England minutes at 8:30a (mention of a drop in interest rates could send the GBP downward).

Trading Idea: long positions favored above channel support currently found at 1.9830 with targets at 1.9890, 1.9925 and 1.9985. Look for candlestick signals to confirm. If support is broken look for a retest of 1.9805 and 1.9760.

(click to enlarge)

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7-21-08

3:21a GMT – The USD/JPY appears to have technically entered a bear channel on the 4H charts (and possibly on the dailies though a close below 103.60 is needed to confirm) and the price action has once again crashed against and bounced off of this resistance (blue line on chart below). Additional technical resistance can be seen at 107.55.  As such I expect a return to the downside.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 107.05 with targets at 106.10, 105.75 and 105.25. If resistance is broken look for a test of 107.25 and 107.55.

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7-18-08

7:36a GMT – EUR/USD remains mildly bullish on the daily charts after closing higher than the previous day’s close though the pair is caught in a tight range currently between 1.5890-1.5815. The daily charts remain slightly overbought and leave quite a bit of room for further correction, possibly all the way down to 1.5615 (purple line on 4H chart below is daily support trendline). However with dailies mildly bullish and the 4H caught in a bullish channel my trading direction will remain to the upside. Tight stops will be used as signals are definitely mixed. Red lines show daily support/resistance.

Trading Idea: longs favored above 1.5815 with targets at 1.5875, 1.5895 and 1.5930. If support is broken look for a challenge of 1.5755.

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7-16-08

19:34 GMT – EU dropped today on a strong US stock performance and a declining price of oil. However, I view the drop as a temporary correction and expect the longs to pick back up again at this discounted price. Multiple levels of support can be found between 1.5780 and 1.5755 on the technical charts and I expect these to hold as more buyers are found.

Trading Idea: Longs favored above 1.5755 with targets at 1.5780, 1.5835, 1.5890 and 1.5950.

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