Tagged "daily"

8-19-08

7:05a GMT – Not much has changed in the technical analysis of EUR/USD for the last few days – the pair remains overall bearish with room to run down to 1.4475. The major threat to the trade is that the dailies highly oversold and the market could be primed to consolidate and bounce toward 1.4900 or even 1.5000 on favorable news for the EUR.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell rallies. Looking for candlestick entries on the 4H and 60M and will be looking closely around resistance at 1.4850. Short targets at 1.4700, 1.4650 and eventually I expect a challenge of 1.4475.

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8-15-08

6:00a GMT – EUR/USD remains bearish on the charts with a sustained break below 1.5000. Pair is stilling heavily oversold but a few more days of sideways movement should ease that. For those doubting which direction the trend is in the shorter term: the pair has dropped 1300 pips in the past 30 days. Remember – it is easier to ride the trend then to bet against it.

Trading Idea: As long as the pair remains below 1.5000 shorts are favored with targets at 1.4865, 1.4775, and eventually all the back to strong support at 1.4450.

(click to enlarge)

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8-4-08

17:12 GMT – The USD/CAD pair is at strong daily, weekly, monthly resistance (currently around 1.0375, red line on daily chart below) and I will be looking for a sell opportunity. We have been in a short-term uptrend with the USD/CAD as oil prices have retreated but I think both are temporary and that the general USD weakness will bring this pair back down. Because this has been in a short term uptrend you might see a higher high than last time, possibly even up to 1.0400.

Also, the RSI just touched 70 (overbought) on the daily chart, a further indicator that this pair will turn around in the near future.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.0400 with targets at 1.0285, 1.0180, 1.0075 and 0.9990.

(click to enlarge)

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7-30-08

3:18a GMT – AUD/USD pair remains bearish on both the daily, 4H and 60M price charts. However there is strong intraday support at 0.9575 that I expect to stall a drop below. 60M RSI is heavily oversold and has just crossed above 30 indicating a bounce and the RSI on the 4H charts is showing a bullish divergence as well. Depending on how strong resistance is above we may see a return immediately to the downside at resistance levels or we might see a tight range develop between 0.9550-0.9475 pending the unemployment news from the US Fed.

Trading Idea: short term I expect a bounce to the yellow trend resistance currently at 0.9535, or to daily resistance at 0.9550. Midterm look for a re-challenge of 0.9475 and, if broken, a test of 0.9425.

(click to enlarge)

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7-30-08

1:44a GMT – EU has touched and bounced off of strong daily and weekly support after yesterdays retreat downward found no buyers willing to support the pair. Support can be found between yellow and purple lines on chart below, currently between 1.5585-1.5525. Pair also just crossed above 30 on the 60M RSI, a buy signal.

Trading Idea: Look for buying opportunities between these support levels as pair looks ready to rebound. I expect the pair to make a full recovery to 1.5900 with targets at 1.5660, 1.5725 and 1.5815 along the way.

(click to enlarge)

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7-28-08

14:51 GMT – The GU pair stayed within the triangular breakout pattern overnight (from my last signal), rising to the of channel resistance (yellow lines below) where it is now. I still expect that signal to hold to hold true as the pattern in the same. In the short term I expect the price action to return to the triangle channel bottom (blue line) currently around 1.9875.

Trading Idea: Short-term shorts preferred below yellow channel trend line below, with targets at 1.9915, 1.9885 and 1.9855.

(click to enlarge)

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7-28-08

1:14a GMT – GBP/USD has been moving slowly downward over the past several weeks (yellow channel lines below), in a larger upward channel over the past few months (blue channel lines below). The downward channel has hit the bottom of the upward channel and has formed a nice triangle pattern (purple lines on chart below) and I believe the the breakout of that triangle will provide us with the direction of the pair to come in the next few weeks. The daily charts show a bearish picture over the past year so that is my inclination for the future, though the shorter term 4H charts (below) show a bullish channel (blue lines).

Trading Idea: look for the pair to breakout of the purple triangle lines below. Pair could go either way. Long targets are 1.9953 and 1.9987 in the mid-term. Short targets are 1.9836 and 1.9765 in the mid-term.

(click to enlarge)

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7-24-08

14:51 GMT – The EUR/USD is approaching a daily support line that also shows up on weekly and monthly charts as it has held since August of 2007 (purple line on chart below). The yellow line directly beneath the purple line (about 50 pips away) is another possible strong daily support line so I consider this the area in between these lines to be a buying zone.

Trading Idea: look for the pair to slow down as it approaches the support (currently between 1.5570 and 1.5500) and look for some candlestick confirmations on the 4H or 60M charts. Longs favored above yellow support line with targets at 1.5660, 1.5725, 1.5815 and 1.5900.

(click to enlarge)

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7-23-08

3:26a GMT – GBP/USD is approaching intraday support on the 4H and daily charts at the bottom of its bullish channel (blue lines on chart below). We also have possible daily support at 1.9835 and this area of double support might provide a good bounce on the pair. Possible event risk at 6:45a GMT with French Consumer Spending (a weak Euro could support the dollar across the board) and the Bank of England minutes at 8:30a (mention of a drop in interest rates could send the GBP downward).

Trading Idea: long positions favored above channel support currently found at 1.9830 with targets at 1.9890, 1.9925 and 1.9985. Look for candlestick signals to confirm. If support is broken look for a retest of 1.9805 and 1.9760.

(click to enlarge)

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7-9-08

00:32a GMT – EUR/USD still remains bullish on the daily charts and I am looking for selling opportunities on the 4 hour and 1 hour charts. Current resistance levels are 1.5715 and 1.5755.

Trading Idea: Between 1.5715 and 1.5755 look for a bearish reversal candlestick signal to confirm the trade. Short targets are 1.5675, 1.5615 and 1.5570.

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