Tagged "EUR/USD"

Daily Outlook: Welcome to December, the final trading month of 2011. Decembers tend to be a volatile month as trading volume thins out as many traders begin to relax for the holidays and, more importantly, banks and funds begin to unwind large positions for year-end reporting purposes. We may have seen a bit of that yesterday as the pair turned off of our short and jumped well over 200 pips in an hour. Our primary short from our support break yesterday got +40 into the profit before swinging back and hitting our T1-SL for +20.

Other than the large swing we witnessed yesterday follow through on breaks has been a rare commodity for the EU so far this week as choppy trading has been the norm. Support definitely seems to be holding better than resistance levels, however, helping the pair to form higher lows and higher highs and giving it a bullish tint heading into the end of the week.

Trading Idea: It appears the pair is consolidating between 3530 and 3420 at the moment, and we will look for reasons to trade either level. If the pair turns down here, from current levels around 1.3500 before getting to 3530 then our primary will be to get short on a brekak below 3430 with targets at 20/25/25/25 pips for 95 pips profit.

If pair keeps rising from here we will look to get long on a break above 3530 with targets at 20/20/30/30 for 100 pips. We will close this long and get short if the break is not sustained.

Scalpers can of course look to carve off a few pips on either side of the S/R lines.

Today’s Poll: 

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

PRO Update: We’ve gotten a lot of questions about the new PRO features and we will answer them on a first-come, first-serve basis. One recurring question is: when will the features be rolled out. We are aiming for most of the features to be rolled out this weekend to allow current users to take advantage of them, use them and give us your feedback. If you have a question, as always, we can be reached at support@piphut.com

Daily Outlook: Patience looks like it is going to pay off as we sat on the EU sidelines for most of yesterday (a couple small long scalps off of blue rising support but nothing to write home about) as we finally got the break we were waiting for @ 1.3300 just a couple hours ago (this is something that an email notification will be sent out with the new PRO feature). You can clearly see where price crossed our rising blue support on the chart below:

We are still in the short from 1.3300 which has gotten 40 pips in the profit and is currently at +25. Our SL has been tightened to break even so we are not risking anything at the moment. We are still overall bearish on the pair and prefer shorts over longs.

Trading Idea: For our short we are targeting 20/25/25/30 pips for 100 pips profit. 1.3215 is good support and we will look to close out our short around this area on signs of reversal. We will also look to close and get long as new falling resistance is developed and broken (again, just to drive home the point, these S/R breaks are something that you will receive an email notification for with the PRO features coming out).

Happy pipping, don’t forget to weigh in on the poll!

Today’s Poll: 

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

Daily Outlook: A few times a year (though we should probably do it more often for own benefit) we like to remind you to KISS – Keep it Simple Stupid! Take a look at your chart – is it packed full indicators to confirm other indicators which are used to confirm moving averages which are used in conjunction with PipHut analysis? If this sounds like your chart then you are probably in dire need to simplify your trading style and get back to basics.

No matter how many indicators you throw on your chart the market will always be unpredictable – the only thing we can do as traders is look at the one technical that actually matters – price action. Trend recognition, candlesticks, support, resistance, etc – these are the absolute fundamentals of technical trading. For PipHut’s analysis we use a very simple combination of these four basics and most days we are able to put a few pips away for, well, whatever we want those pips for :). We aren’t telling you how to trade, just asking you to think about how you can simplify your system and get back to what actually matters – the price.

Primary support we were tracking from yesterday’s signal was broken, triggering our short and got +35 in the profit – we closed for less than that however as we were giving the trade room to breath to let our profits run.

Trading Idea: We are backing out our S/R lines today to reflect the large consolidation pattern we are seeing on the hourlies. 1.3275 is our key support at the moment and we will look to get short below that level for a run at closing the weekend’s gap. Targets at 20/20/30/30 pips for 100 pips profit.

If that break is not sustained, however, we will look to get long off the 3275 support for a “trampoline” bounce to the blue intraday falling trend resistance shown on the chart above with targets at 20/30/30/30 pips for 110 pips profit.

Aggressive setups are also shown on the chart above.

PRO Update! As promised here is a small, small peek at some of the exciting features coming to PRO soon.  All of the new features are designed to make CP and PRO Analysis easier to use, trade and – most importantly – easier to profit with right out of the gates.

The below screenshot is actually the new CandlePRO search results with the TP/SL Backtesting being shown (shown and hidden by clicking the “Backtesting” button). On the backtesting you’ll see that TP/SL data is now being provided for several different built in strategies – Pullback strategy, RR Strategy, Scalping and False Signal Strategy.

To the left of the green backtesting button you can also see the “PRO Chart” button (which we might rename “S/R Chart” – we’d be happy to hear your feedback). Click this and an S/R chart will appear for the pair – with S/R levels hand drawn by PipHut and refreshed every 10 minutes so there is no longer any guessing about whether an S/R level is broken on our charts

Exciting stuff! As we mentioned this is only a small glimpse at the new features we will be rolling out soon. Others include email notifications for your CP strategy, email notifications for PRO S/R breaks, Journal Dashboard, etc etc. Stay tuned!

Same poll as yesterday, did you change your mind?

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

Daily Outlook: Holiday hangover and the massive drop last week has created some choppy trading so far this morning. We were holding off the signal in the hopes that some better setups would present themselves but high probability setups are still a bit thin for EU this morning.

There was a respectable 80 pip gap to start the week which has yet to be closed – not that it has to be, but more times than not in our experience gaps get closed within a few days at most. In fact since then the pair has jumped upward on very thin volume, leaving traders scratching their heads as to whether this pair is overbought or oversold. The answer is both – after the last couple week’s big drop the pair is oversold on the dailies, while the hourlies are starting to get into overbought territory. With the longer term trend being down shorts are still our preferred position but we will also look for longs at support as there is still plenty of room for a bullish correction.

Trading Idea: Primary trade is a long on a dip to black rising trend support, currently at 1.3330 and rising, with targets at 20/30/30/30 pips for 110 pips profit.

We will also look to get short on breaks of rising trend support at 1.3320 (and rising) with targets at 20/25/25/30 for 100 pips profit.

We’ll keep an eye on any new S/R lines that appear during the day as well to get short/long on those swings.

P.S. Screenshots of new backtesting and PRO Charts features coming out this afternoon – stay tuned :) We are aiming for a December general release of all features. We were hoping to have them out by now but we want to make sure everything is fully tested before a site-wide rollout! Thanks for your patience!

Today’s Poll: 

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

U.S. Banks are closed today for Thanksgiving. With the banks closed the next two days will be very low volume, and that low volume can lead to big swings on low liquidity or just hours of watching the pair barely move. Either way, our main trading plan is to take some time off and enjoy the time with your family! We have updated the EU chart below with trading setups (we consider all trading especially aggressive/risky these two days and will not be trading ourselves). PRO members will get all charts update for all pairs today and tomorrow.

“Thanksgiving in North America had originated from a mix of European and Native traditions. Typically in Europe, festivals were held before and after the harvest cycles to give thanks for a good harvest, and to rejoice together after much hard work with the rest of the community. At the time, Native Americans had also celebrated the end of a harvest season. When Europeans first arrived to the Americas, they brought with them their own harvest festival traditions from Europe, celebrating their safe voyage, peace and good harvest.” (source: wikipedia).

Thursday’s Chart:

Friday’s Chart:

Trading Idea: Aggressive setups are shown on the chart above – we will not be trading today due to the US Banks being closed for Thanksgiving.

Today’s Poll: 

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

Daily Outlook: Our primary was triggered from yesterday’s signal as the falling trend resistance we were tracking (first/top orange line on chart below) was broken at the 07:00 candle. At that point the falling resistance was around 1.3495 though we waited for the break of 1.3500 for a little added confirmation. That trade got +65 pips into the profit and we closed at +35 per lot – we aiming for 105 pips so we gave it a little room to breath and only closed after it appeared to be breaking through some aggressive rising support.

Today there is no trend S/R super close to our price action so we are looking at the blue falling trend resistance to provide key levels for now, which is still about 40 pips away. Technically the pair is still very bearish – just back out to the 4h charts and peek for yourself – so our medium term outlook and our preferred trades are shorts.

PRO USERS:

Exciting news! PRO is getting some major work done on it right now and will include some sweet new features. We will be rolling them out over the next week or so:

• First off, it will get a major facelift to make it more user friendly and easier to navigate
• PRO Charts – want to see OUR charts, with OUR S/R lines updated every 10 minutes? Never miss an S/R break again
• Full access to our trading system – get a step-by-step guide to trade and analyze the market like PipHut does.
• Email alerts – you don’t have to sit in from of CandlePRO any more to take advantage of it. Select your signals and your email address and you are off!
• lots more… we will have screenshots of the new features coming out this week. Stay tuned.

Trading Idea: Primary trade today is a short under the falling blue resistance – currently at 1.3500 – with candlestick confirmation and targets at 20/25/30/30 pips for 105 pips profit. 1.34 should provide good support so we will look to close and get long around that level.

You can see our other aggressive trade setups on today’s chart above, but our preference will be to wait for better S/R trend lines to form and trade breaks and candlesticks off of those (FYI this is something the new PRO Charts will show you – updated several times an hour).

Lets take another shot at today’s poll – is 1.34 close to getting hit?

Today’s Poll: 

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

Daily Outlook: Our short from yesterday’s signal (which we took in the comments) got +65 pips in the profit but was unable to breach 1.34 and turned back on us. We ended up closing out at +20 and that pair is back to where we entered yesterday at 3490. Today we are tracking another falling trend resistance, shown in blue/black below:

A glance at the 4h charts shows that the EU is extremely bearish, going from above 1.4200 to just over 1.3400 – an 800 pip drop in just 3 weeks! This drop is a good reflection of the problems that have been waving through Europe the past month. Even with the “super” committee in the US failing to find any middle ground on debt reduction the short-term picture for the Eurozone is still worse.

Trading Idea: Despite the bearish technicals and fundamentals we will look for a long on a break above today’s falling resistance to produce a nice *pop*. That resistance is currently at 1.3540 and falling, and we will target 20/25/30/30 pips for 105 pips total.

We will also look for shorts under 3540 with candlestick confirmation and targets at 20/20/25/25 for 85 pips total. 1.3400 is the next major support and we will look to close and long near 1.3400 with good candle confirmation.

Today’s Poll: 

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

Daily Outlook: After a bit of choppy trading last Friday (the exact reason why we don’t trade Fridays) the pair appears to be searching for a clear direction this week with analysts weighing on both sides of the risk on / risk off debate:

What used to be a relatively clear equation (risk on = higher euro, risk off = higher dollar) has been further polluted by mounting European debt questions and their ability and will to handle those problems, along with the US Governments failure to reign in its own debt. Rumors in the US are that the ‘super committee’ assigned to reach a compromise on debt reduction are poised to announce failure on Monday morning. We expect such an announcement will initially be USD negative – until traders remember that the news coming out of the EU is worse.

Technically, which is what we ultimately exit / enter, based off of the pair has been in a tight consolidation channel between 1.3550-1.3490 for the past several hours (into last week) and we expect a break above or below this to produce enough of a *pop* to nab some pips off of. The major threat to the trade is just the lack of direction and conviction the markets have right now may chase off investors from holding any one position for too long and cause the pair to range.

Trading Idea: Primary trade is a short on a downside break of of 1.3490 with targets at 3470, 3445, 3420 and 3390 for 100 pips profit. We will also look for a break to the topside of 1.3550 and targets at 3570, 3595, 3620 and 3645 for 95 pips potential.

Today’s Poll: 

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

Daily Outlook: More solid pips yesterday as the EU continued to play nicely with our support lines – there were pips to be had off resistance breaks too but we were bearish on the pair yesterday and so avoided the longs. Today we are once again tracking a rising support:

Pair continues to consolidate above 1.34 which, if you pop over to the daily chart is at the bottom of a nice bearish consolidation channel – making a bullish rise in the Euro a bit more likely today. Especially since yesterday was an inverted hammer. A weak one, but still a bullish sign.

Trading Idea: However since it is Friday and markets are already thinner than usual as the end of the year approaches we will not be trading (Friday rule!). If we were trading today we would look to our blue rising support as the key pivot, getting short on breaks below and long above with short timeframe candlestick signals. This key support is currently at 1.3475 and rising.

Have a safe weekend everyone, and good pipping this week.

Today’s Poll: 

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums

Daily Outlook: Yesterday was a lot of up and down – in our benefit though as each up and down produced a nice S/R line (shown in orange, yellow and blue below) that was good for solid pips on each break. Even our forecasted support line (black rising support from yesterday’s signal) was almost dead on. We did get caught on the wrong side a couple of times on the last orange support there (we are looking at you, 13:00 and 14:00 candles) but in each case the candle closed back above support so we were able to close out for minimal loss.

Trading Idea: Thanks ‘hutters for pointing out our number error – we would love to be short from 3885 :). Following our S/R strategy we are currently short from the last support break (blue line) from 3485 (current price is 3475 on our charts). The pair has already gotten 35 pips in the profit but is now much closer to our starting point. Targets are: 3465 (hit), 3440, 3410 and 3380 for 105 pips potential. As always we will look to stop and close when the new falling resistance falls and is broken or if our SL is hit at 3520.

We are, in general, bearish on the pair and our vote is for 1.33 to be hit before 1.36 in the coming days. What is your vote?

Today’s Poll:

Want analysis for more pairs? Want candlestick alerts for better entries/exits?
Click here to learn more about PipHut PRO

Sign up for free forex signals via email here
READ ME: Using PipHut’s Free Signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Market Hours
Forums