Tagged "flagpole"

12-17-09

Email update: Server upgrade for signals is complete, but it has to be phased in for reasons out of my control so about half of you should have received an email letting you know there was a new signal, and about half of you didn’t receive anything. Almost everyone should get tomorrow’s signal and everything will be working smoothly by this weekend I promise :).

4:40a GMT – If you braved the news the yesterday’s signal yielded you good pips – no matter which trading idea you used (sell at 1.4580-1.4600 or sell on break of rising support) all targets would have been hit for over 100 pips. I did open 1 short on the initial jump to 1.4580 and took profit on first lot but second was stopped out at break even for no profit/loss.

Dollar gained heavily against the Euro yesterday, establishing a new low of the quarter amidst Bernanke’s words that the job situation was stabilizing. Traders see job data as the key factor in determining when the Fed will begin raising interest rates, and coupled with the positive non-farm payroll data from a week ago this makes rate hikes much more likely in the early part of 2010. Does this mean the dollar will continue gaining until next year? Of course not. The market will attempt to find a ‘fair value’ price for the pair. And in that fair value the Euro has the advantage because its interest rate is already higher than the dollar’s.

Daily Outlook: I am bearish below 1.4600 and will look for good areas to short around Fibonacci levels.  I expect to see a pattern similar to what we have seen over the past week where we have a long bearish flagpole followed by hours of bullish consolidation. As I mentioned before I am conservative in these thin-markets before the end of the year, so if I miss a trade there will always be another one.

Trading Idea: Shorts preferred below 1.4600, looking first at 61.8% fibonacci retracement around 1.4500. From this level short targets are 1.4455, 1.4420 and 1.4385. If 1.4500 is broken to the upside look for a re-challenge of 1.4600.

(click to enlarge)

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6-9-08

4:48 GMT – Hey we finally got a chart setup for a “free forex signal” – the first of June! USD/JPY rose 86 pips after bouncing off of strong daily support currently around 104.50. Pair made a nice flagpole over 4 hours and is currently consolidating between 105.25-105.40. Entry is 10%, or roughly 9 pips above the top of the pole at 105.45 (top of pole is 105.36).

RSI has plenty of room to run (right below 50).

Buy – 105.45
S – 105.20 (25 pips, pair True Range is currently around 22 plus 3 for spread)
L1 – 105.70 (25 pips, equal to risk)
L2 – 105.95 (50 pips, at bottom of 6/5-6/6 consolidation)

5:50a – SIGNAL CANCELED – Unfortunately our first free forex signal of June is canceled because of the false breakout (pair was fractional pips from catching my entries) and then a break to the downside. We will look for buying on dips. Aggressive traders can leave their entries but I would move them to 105.55, as their is obviously selling interest ahead of 105.50.

UPDATE – 17:26 GMT – Well I hope some of took my advice above and moved the trade to 105.55 or even left it alone. I set it up in my demo account to watch the results and both targets were hit for 75 pips gain (if I had been awake I could have trailed it up for another 20 or so). So the result of the signal is 0 pips, but the result of the aggressive trader is 75 pips.

Result: 0 pips

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5-22-08

2:12a GMT – Mixed signals on the USD/JPY pair. Pair charged upward through resistance at 104.00 only to meet tougher resistance at 104.40 (the 68.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 105.4-102.7 drop). Pair bounced hard off that only to return to 104 and bounce off that as well. Two possible trend resistance lines were broken in yesterday’s upward charge but one remains (seen on chart below in blue). Bearish wick just bounced off this trend line making me lean toward bearish underneath it despite the upward pressure of 104.00.

Trading Idea: Mixed signals advise caution and to wait for a clear signal one way or another. I remain bearish under the blue trend line currently at 104.30. Beneath this look for 104.00 and 103.60 as targets. Above this trend line or off another 104.00 bounce look for 104.50 and then 104.90 as targets.

UPDATE – 6:19a GMT – To add to the mixed signals there is what appears to be a triangle consolidation pattern on top of the flagpole, which would indicate a bullish shoot upwards. Pattern and flagpole in yellow below:

Result: +70 pips

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5-22-08

18:53 GMT – Flagpole trade entry orders placed below current pair consolidation. Pair has nice flag consolidation pattern after 60 pip drop and is near large round # at .9550. Negatives include strong resistance at .95 and oversold hourlies (but dailies are overbought).

Sell – .9538
S – .958 (20 pips)
L1 – .9518 (20 pips, move second stop to BE)
L2 – .94750 (67 pips)

UPDATE – Trade parameters adjusted above.

UPDATE – 20:52 GMT – This trade has been put on hold until Tokyo market comes online to avoid a false breakout in thin markets. Entry price not yet hit.

UPDATE – Trade Cancelled on a break to the upside. Good no trade.

Result: 0 pips

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5-21-08

18:21 GMT – Entered flagpole breakout entry above consolidation at 104.00. Consolidation made nice pattern, flagpole was 90 pips and trade is in direction of flagpole. Also pair was making nice horizontal stabs at 104.00 resistance, a large round #. Negatives include the possibly strong trend support below 104.5 (and very close to my limit) and the resistance at 104.50

Buy – 104.195
S – 103.945 (25 pips)
L1 – 104.445 (25 pips, move second stop stop to BE)
L2 – 104.795 (60 pips)

(Having issue with my screen capture, will get a chart up here ASAP)

Alright here’s my screen capture (by the time I got the screen captured we are 14 pips in the profit per lot, hope you weren’t waiting on this!)

UPDATE – Mixed hourly signals. A bearish candle followed our breakout and pair may have bounced off of 61.8% daily retracement of latest drop or the trend line resistance. Positives are that the former resistance at 104.2 should now be strong support. No shame in closing this trade after that bearish candlestick though. I am tightening my stop to 5 pips below the support at 104.147.

UPDATE – Well, as I suggested above I did close that trade out at a small loss of 10 pips, so that will go up into the May Forex performance (top left). According to my ticker the original stop was never hit so this one would be still be open. The technicals on this one are mixed without a clear direction as you will see in my technical analysis I will post soon.

RESULT: -10 pips

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5-21-08

23:46p GMT – Placing two entry orders above current consolidation just below large round # at 1.5800. Current price action is around 1.5786. Treating the four candlestick, 50 pip rise from 1.5750 as a flagpole and placing entry 5 pips above flagpole and large round # at 1.5805. Stop and first exit are relatively tight as RSI is pretty overbought at this point but fundamentals back more EUR gains. In the direction of the trend and have a nice down curl consolidation below 1.58 as bears try and fight back but I think bulls will win this one.

Buy – 1.5805
S – 1.5780 (25p)
L1 – 1.5830 (25p, move second stop to break even)
L2 – 1.5870 (65 pips, at the bottom of former support levels)

UPDATE – 3:57a GMT – Signal cancelled, again. Break to the downside negates signal. We will look to buy dips.

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5-21-08

17:07 GMT – EUR/USD has broken to the upside and crashed through known channel resistance. Their might be one more channel resistance that I redrew that matches current price action (see chart below) so I have placed my buy entries 13 pips above the possible channel resistance. Nice flagpole, in the direction of the trend and wicks are more or less levelling off at a horizontal level. This is a combination of a breakout trade and a flagpole trade. Also note that because of the rising resistance line these entry orders will only remain open for a few hours at most.

Buy – 1.5795
S – 1.5765 (30 pips)
L1 – 1.5825 (30 pips, move second stop to break even)
L2 – 1.5865 (70 pips, I may actually remove this limit and let price action run depending on the signals as the rising support will provide a profitable exit in any case)

UPDATE – 19:24 GMT – Buy entries, both stops and L1 were all raised 2 pips as we enter the new hour because the resistance slope is about 2 pips. So the entry is now 1.5797, for example.

UPDATE – 20:22 GMT – SIGNAL CANCELLED. Last hour closed above my channel resistance and no quick rise happened. Also the hourlies are heavily overbought which might limit the gains and a slight divergence has peaked out over the past 10 hours.

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5:54a GMT – AUD/USD pair is consolidating beneath .9600 after a 70 pip flagpole rise 6 hours back. My inclination is that the pair will shoot through the 0.96 resistance after consolidation but because the entry would be just below a large round # and because of the overbought hourlies I am not placing a signal or entry order on this one. A rising RSI trendline does confirm the direction.

UPDATE – Pair did rise 30 pips, hitting as high as 0.9615 which is a 20-year high. since then pair has retreated back below .9600 but has been unable to break support at .9570. Our overall bias is still up.

Weekly Review: Good no trade. Pair rose 30 pips before falling back down to .9560. A standard flagpole trade would have called for an entry at .9596. The pairs high before dropping back was .96170 so a 20 pip stop would have barely squeaked by while a 25 pip stop would have been a loser (remember first lot is equal to risk or the stop). The ATR was around 18 with a 3 pip spread so a 20 pip stop would have been acceptable (especially given the caution of the large round number) but a 25 pip stop would have been more conservative.

Placed entry orders above the current EU consolidation below 1.5600. Nice 145-pip flagpole leading up to this consolidation, and a nice horizontal run of the pricing action. Also a nice rising trend on the 60M RSI with a clear break of its squeezing consolidation channel that was broken to the upside last week.

Buy – 1.5616
Stop – 1.5581 (35 pips; ATR is at 28 and 35 is 25% of flagpole)
L1 – 1.5651 (35 pips, will raise second stop to break even)
L2 – 1.5745 (129 pips; almost the height of the flagpole, at the bottom of multi-day resistance and just short of the 145 pip pole)

UPDATE: This signal has been canceled effective immediately due to a fluctuating consolidation pattern.

Weekly Review: Good no trade. The pair ended up having a false breakout before dropping 150 pips. Once the consolidation pattern is broken or abnormal a signal is cancelled.

Result: 0 pips

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23:42p GMT – Placed breakout flagpole entry above current NZD/USD consolidation and trend channel resistance. RSI shows positive trend but Slow SS shows mixed signals on the 60M charts.

Buy – 0.7655
Stop – 0.7630 (25 pips)
L1 – 0.7680 (25 pips, raise second stop to break even)
L2 – 0.7705 (50 pips)

UPDATE – 7:05a GMT – Pair is still consolidating horizontally to resistance at 0.7650. The pair has not made any deep stabs to challenge Fibonacci 38.2% retracement so I am keep the signal and entry orders in place for now.

UPDATE – 7:45a GMT – Resistance was broken and entry points were hit to trigger the trade so PipHut.com is now active in this trade.

UPDATE – 8:21a GMT – First limit hit for 25 pip profit (equal to risk)! Second stop raised to break-even for a risk free shot at 50 pips.

UPDATE – 8:32a GMT – Second limit moved down 10 pips to 0.7695 due to expected resistance at .7700

UPDATE – 18:48p GMT – Second limit hit for additional 40 pips. Trade closed.

Signal Result: +65 pips profit!