Tagged "forex market"

Yesterday Recap: Pretty good day of trading yesterday as 3 trades were triggered as I capitalized on the tightening consolidation pattern of the pair. First was the aggressive sell triggered by the bearish break of 1.3580, which dropped for a quick 30 pips to rising support. That activated the primary long at 1.3550 which rose for 100 pips.

Daily Outlook: Despite the large up and down swing the daily outlook didn’t change a bit – the pair continues to consolidate in a tight triangle pattern with the overall downtrend still intact. I will look for a false breakout to occur to the topside, possibly even challenge the stronger falling trend resistance on the daily charts (you can just see the top of it – its the top blue line) currently around 1.3700.

Trading Idea: Not as aggressive today as we are running out of room to maneuver in this pattern. Primary trade is a short on a signal under 1.3700 resistance, with targets at 1.3670, 1.3640, 1.3605 and eventually 1.3560. Secondary trade is a bearish break of 1.3620 support could trigger a run to the trend support again (currently at 1.3570).

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Slow day yesterday – in the markets and in the forums. The pair only moved 15 pips from open to close, and it was one of the least volatile days in recent history moving less than 100 pips from high to low. Traders didn’t have much to talk about either with not trades being entered!

Daily Outlook: The pair continues to consolidate in the1.3750-1.3450 range, coming closer and closer to our key falling trend resistance dating back to early December 2009. The last time this resistance was tested (January 13th) the pair flirted with the resistance a few times before ultimately plummeting over 900 pips. Also reinforcing the bearish picture is that bulls were unable to sustain their new rally, failing to make a new high on the day or even sustain their gains (in fact the day ended as a bearish candle with a long bearish wick).

Trading Idea: I will look to sell a challenge of this trend resistance line, currently between 1.3700-1.3730. From 1.3730 the short targets are 1.3700, 1.3665, 1.3625 and 1.3595.

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3-4-10

4:17a GMT – Euro bulls were able to extend the rally past 1.3700 resistance yesterday. I had a small position much lower down on a bearish doji that was stopped on a very tight stop and did not enter at 1.3700 as their was no candlestick signal to confirm the trade. The Greek worries were set aside for a bit yesterday as risk sentiment improved and the US dollar sank accordingly. Greece is just the tip of the iceberg however, with problems in Portugal, Italy and Spain (PIGS for short) on the horizon. EU is in a bind because aiding Greece is in their best interests in the short-term but long-term how will they respond if one of the other PIGS countries needs help?

Daily Outlook: I’ve posted a possible weekly scenario below for everyone to look at, and circled the double dojis that give me pause and make me concerned this bullish sentiment could continue for a few more days. The pair is still capped by a falling trend resistance on the daily chart however.

Trading Idea: I will play it cautious today as the short-term trend exposes itself. No need to risk my capital on a 50/50 toss. The primary trade I will look for is a short near falling trend resistance (falling blue line below on 1h chart) which is around 1.3800. 1.3800 is also resistance from mid-February. From 1.3800 at 1.3765, 1.3730 and 1.3700. If you are feeling aggressive a long in the 1.3600 area offers a good shot at jumping back up, but I will not be taking that trade.

(click to enlarge)

Weekly Chart with Bullish Dojis:

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12-29-09

5:29a GMT – The markets struggled to move at all yesterday, with virtually nothing happening throughout the entire trading day! I could sum up the entire day with: “the markets rose a little bit, then fell a little”. No new highs, no new lows. The only technical detail worth mentioning was that on the daily chart yesterday formed a (very small) bearish doji. Because it is so small however, on thin markets and not a new high it is a very unreliable bearish signal at best.

Daily Outlook: After failing to make a new high by breaking 1.4420 and the somewhat bearish daily doji discussed above I am back to leaning bearish, however the technical signals are weak at best and the market is without a clear direction at the moment. It would seem bulls and bears are content with the price at the moment as we go into 2010.

Trading Idea: Look for the pair to continue to consolidate in the 1.4420-1.4350 range, with a break of 1.4420 opening the way to 1.4500 and a break of 1.4350 opening up 1.4320 and 1.4275. Remember, markets are razor thin this time of year and tend to either do nothing or make big jumps, so trade carefully, always use stops and good money management!

(click to enlarge)

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12-28-09

6:14a GMT – I hope everyone had a relaxing few days off last week! This is generally the slowest week of the year before the New Year, and I know many of you are still out for the week on vacation, but the markets are open so the signals will continue! We finally saw a breath of life out of the bulls last week as the EURUSD managed to close on a high note, climbing above 1.4400 and almost piercing the 23.6% fibonacci retracement resistance from 12/3-12/22 at 1.4330. Price also managed to break the downtrend resistance we’ve had since December 3rd.

Daily Outlook: So what does this all mean? Well, if we were in a long-term downtrend for all of 2009 I would let this go and continue selling, but given the thin markets and the fact that we have actually been in a strong uptrend all of 2009 these are enough bullish signals to make me a believer – I looking to buy on dips today.

Trading Idea: I’m looking first for bullish signals near support at 1.4320 and, if that gets broken, I’ll look above 1.4275. From 1.4275 targets are 1.4315, 1.4345, 1.4390 and 1.4420. Make sure to keep an eye out for candlestick signals here to confirm the trade.

(click to enlarge)

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12-18-09

5:14a GMT – Before today’s signal I want to say something quick about patience. As you all probably know I talk about NOT trading about as much as I talk about trading. About waiting for a good pullback to buy/sell on, about waiting for confirmation, and about not minding if I miss a trade because there will always be another one. It’s one of the hardest things to learn in becoming a trader but I think the most important. I’m going to write a full article on it this weekend but until then please 30 seconds and read this post by James in the forum on Patience and Trading here. Feel free to share your own thoughts and stories (reply to the forum please) so we can all grow as a community.

On to the signal! Markets will probably be thin today due to it being Friday and so close to the holidays. We’ve definitely seen the end-of-year increase in volatility that many of us were expecting, and Friday’s can make it even worse. As always use stops and good money management. No entry on yesterday’s sell signal as the price dropped like a rock and never looked back. Mind the news event at 9a GMT – details on the forex calendar.

Daily Outlook: Short-term trend is obviously still bearish, and we have a short-term resistance in place at 1.4420 that should provide a good guide as to the direction of the pair on the day. 1.4420 is the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday’s high and Thursday’s low and has been twice tested (7:00 and 14:00 yesterday).

Trading Idea: Below 1.4425 I am bearish. For the day I will look for a bearish confirmation signal (candlestick, failure, etc.) to enter on with short targets at 1.4390, 1.4355 1.4320 and 1.4290. If 1.4425 is broken to the upside look for a re-challenge of 1.4500.

(click to enlarge)

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12-15-09

EMAIL ALERT – I know that no email alert was sent out for today’s signal! I’m upgrading the PipHut mail server to handle the increased load. Should be up and running for tomorrow’s signal and hopefully you will get signals quicker too :).

6:14a GMT – Well we had a whole lot of nothing yesterday with the EUR/USD yesterday. Early in the day we did have a move upwards which stalled out around 1.4675 (the 50% fibo of the Dec 11th high/low) and dropped 50 or so pips but that was really the only action of the day. After that the EUR/USD just stumbled about around 1.4650 without any real direction.

Daily Outlook: Despite the lack of direction yesterday afternoon I am still very bearish on the pair as it continues to make lower lows and lower lows. My real concern at this point is that in these thinner markets (markets thin out toward the end of the year/holiday season) we can see a big spike in volatility, and a big spike in volatility is usually preceded by a tight range day. Just like we had yesterday. So keep that in the back of your mind when deciding whether or not you want to enter that trade :). We do have some sentiment news coming out of Germany around 10a GMT and some inflation news coming out of the States around 13:30 GMT. You can read more about the day’s news events/details at the forex calendar here.

Trading Idea: Looking for selling opportunities, but will look higher up as volatility is a serious concern in these holiday-thin markets. I am looking for short candlestick signals in fairly big band of resistance, currently 1.4700-1.4730. I will look on the 30m, 1h and 4h charts for a good entry signal. Short targets from 1.4730 are 1.4700, 1.4675, 1.4640 and 1.4605.

(click to enlarge)

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12-9-09

6:42a GMT – When I wrote in yesterday’s signal that the bears had circled wagons and looked to be in firm control I still thought the bulls would be able to muster a little bit of a fight. Turns out the bulls played the role of punching bag yesterday as bears continued the downward pressure, smashing through 1.4775 support. Price action never got to yesterday’s signal entry, but there were candlesticks worth entering on all major timeframe charts that captured some nice pips. On a side note – this is why I only trade with me trend direction on the day. Anyone jumping at bullish signals more than likely got punished for doing so. If you go with the trend you can get punished, but usually the punishments are not as harsh.

Daily Outlook: With bulls showing little strength and strong daily support broken signals point toward more EURUSD losses and I will look for shorting opportunities. My preferred shorting zone would be 1.4775 (resistance and a 23.6% fibonacci retracement) as that would offer the best reward/risk ratio, but I will also look for shorter-frame shorts on candlestick signals with very tight stops as bears appear to have a firm grip on the markets at the moment.

Trading Idea: Under 1.4775 shorts are preferred with targets 1.4745, 1.4710 and 1.4670. On a clean break of 1.4775 look for a possible re-challenge of 1.4900.

(click to enlarge)

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12-4-09

5:41a GMT – Yesterday’s signals produced a trade (which is still open) at 1.5050 (currently a little bit in the profit) though I have tightened the stop as 4h charts are leaning toward a bearish consolidation pattern. Another reason I have tightened the stop considerably is because on the daily chart a bearish shooting star was produced so today could be a bearish profit-taking day for the markets. The AUD/USD trade I mentioned in the comments produced good pips as well :).

As far as yesterday’s news went Bernanke again talked about protecting the dollar – but the markets have heard this many times from Bernanke and never have his actions matched his words. In fact his actions (historically low interest rates) have said the exact opposite: that he at the moment cares very little about the value of the USD. One interesting thing he did say at his Senate meetings was that he would consider using interest rates to “burst” asset bubbles before they got too big.

Daily Outlook: Even as I write this we are seeing a bit of a bounce in the EUR/USD, which is good for our trade, but the signals for today are a bit mixed. The bearish shooting star on the daily chart yesterday and the potential double-top at 1.5140 are signals for a potential return to channel bottom around 1.4880. I will keep my long open from yesterday with a tight stop, though a break of support at 1.5025 will open the short-term bearish challenge of 1.4970. If it reaches this level I will look for bullish candlesticks to buy on.

News Events: Be weary of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data and the US unemployment data due to come out around 13:30 GMT. Markets are usually choppy around news events.

Trading Idea: On a break of 1.5025 look for a challenge of 1.4970 support, around which I will look for buying opportunities with targets at 1.5000, 1.5030 and 1.5065.

(click to enlarge)

Update Graph: Big drop today. Wanted to post this longer term chart to give you some perspective on the drop. Looks like a better buying opp as it approaches that lower trend support doesn’t it?

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I’m proud to roll out a few new services for PipHutters today, services that I think you will find extremely useful to help you trade better. Some of these services you may have noticed recently, others I bet you have not…

By far the most exciting of the new announcements, welcome the Candlestick Alert Service! No matter how good a trader you are sometimes you miss candlestick signals. The best of us do it. Not anymore!

What this little gem does is monitor the 30m and 1h charts of the EUR/USD and show you if any bullish or bearish candlestick signals have been detected! Now this is still in BETA, so I want to remind people that the presentation might still be a little rough around the edges but that is what I need your feedback for!

Right now the service will only detect candlesticks on the 30m and 1h of the EURUSD and I’m starting with only the doji, shooting star, hammer, inverted hammer and hanging man. Once I’m sure it is detecting those properly I will begin to roll out other patterns as well..

Click here to visit the Candlestick Alert Service

What could go better with the Candlestick Alert Service than a Candlestick Quick Reference guide? Not much! This is pretty short right now, because I wanted to only display candles that the alert service is currently detecting (see above for list). But on the quick reference guide if you click on the image or name of any candle it will bring you to a more detailed page.

Click here to visit the Candlestick Reference Guide.

I’ve had quite a few people ask me recently for a forex market hours tool, to see what markets are open and closed. Ask and you shall receive! Pretty self-explanatory. Check it out.

Click here to visit the Forex Market Hours page.

Yes, I know PipHut already had forums but, to be honest, I hated them. They were clunky, looked bad, were hard to navigate. I think these new forums (hopefully you agree) will be much easier for everyone to use. I know that the comments section of the posts are easier (and in many cases better) for discussing the day’s trading, but there are some things much easily discussed in a forum, such as trading systems that you can refer back to, ongoing conversations about a news event, commodities, OR if you want to post a chart or keep a journal thread going.

By the way, if you start a thread and aren’t getting much traction just let me know, I’ll post a link to it front and center on the main site and give you plenty of traffic.

Click here to visit the Candlestick Reference Guide.