Tagged "GBP/USD"

10-07-08

3:29a GMT – I thought I would mix it up and give a signal for the GBP/USD since I’ve been giving signals just for the EUR/USD pair for the past few weeks (profitable as they were). GBP/USD has dropped over 1000 pips in the past few weeks and we will stick with the trend. The major risk here is that the pair is oversold and traders will need to cover their shorts at some point. Therefore we will look to sell rallies at 1.7555 resistance.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored at 1.7555 with targets at 1.7465, 1.7405 and 1.7355.

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9-8-08

5:50a GMT – GBP/USD is approaching resistance at 1.8000 as the pair saw its first major corrective action in weeks. I will continue to sell the downtrend and will look for selling opportunities on this latest strength. Wait for candlestick confirmation or other technical indicators, however, as the pair is drastically oversold and any bad news out of the U.S. could cause traders to begin covering their shorts.

Trading Idea: Look for short trade confirmations (e.g. bearish candlestick reversals) around resistance at 1.8000 with short targets at 1.7800, 1.7750, and 1.7650. If 1.8000 is broken look for a challenge of 1.8200.

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8-25-08

4:06a GMT – The GBP/USD continues to look negative technically and fundamentally as another key support level was broken at 1.8525. Fundamentally both the GBP and USD are weak however the USD has been supported by strong buys over the past several weeks and the retreating price of oil. Main risk to the technical trade are the oversold levels (pair just crossed back above the RSI 30 on the 4 hour charts) which have cooled off some from a low of 12.

Trading Idea: shorts favored below 1.8565 with targets down to 1.8205.

(click to enlarge)

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8-18-08

3:26a GMT – The GU pair offers perhaps one of the clearest fundamental pictures with the British economy showing clear signs of slowing and signals that their housing market will continue to deteriorate. Technically, as you might expect with those financial events, the GBP/USD is bearish and the pair has fallen over 1500 pips in the past month. The biggest threat to the downtrend is just how incredibly oversold the pair is on the 4 hour, daily and now the weekly charts. At some point traders will take profits or corporations will form some more substantial resistance.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell rallies once the pair is not oversold anymore, possibly around 1.8850 or even 1.9000.

(click to enlarge)

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8-13-08

22:21 GMT – GU remains bearish on all time frames but is approaching strong weekly support just as the pair is reaching highly oversold levels on the weekly chart as well (it is also oversold on everything from 1h-weekly). On signs of bouncing off the support at 1.8500 this might be a good opportunity to hedge your shorts on a bounce back to 1.9000.

Trading Idea: Look for stalling and candlestick signals on the 4H and daily charts at 1.8500 with long targets back to 1.9000 as the oversold levels reset.

(click to enlarge)

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8-10-08

20:45 GMT – The US dollar made a strong rally last week with the GBP/USD pair falling almost 600 pips in the last 7 days! Several pairs including EUR/USD, USD/CHF and the GBP/USD are at key support and resistance levels leading me to believe that the rise of the US dollar will stall at the least and possibly slighly reversal as overbought/oversold levels are consolidated.

Because of the 600 pip drop I needed to consult the weekly charts (seen below) to find the key support levels as all daily and hourly chart supports were broken. In the long term I expect more USD strength as the economic slowdown catches up to the rest of the world but we will most likely see some overbought USD sales to consolidate the gains.

Trading Idea: Look to sell rallies, possibly in the 1.9450 or 1.9550 resistance areas. Ultimately I see the pair challenging 1.8900 in the coming weeks.

(click to enlarge)

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8-3-08

17:18 GMT – The GU pair is giving off mixed signals on Sunday afternoon. Overall I expect the downside to hold out on both the 4H and the Daily charts but I will look to sell rallies. Their is a bullish RSI divergence on the 4H charts that indicates a possible rise in the pair to resistance at 1.9800, 1.9840 or even (if the news is strong enough) to the top of the channel resistance (yellow lines below) currently around 1.9875.

Trading Idea: short favored on rallies with targets ultimately down to 1.9675.

(click to enlarge)

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8-1-08

3:26a GMT – Pair briefly spiked today on slower US GDP growth than expected by big money immediately brought that down to previous levels as the picture in the UK is not much better. 1.9840 is our first level of resistance with 1.9905 holding the second resistance point. Pair is still caught in a bearish channel (yellow lines below) and fundmentals support continued GBP weakness. Consolidation over the past days has relieved oversold levels and opened up a fresh downside.

Trading Idea: shorts preferred below 1.9850 with targets at 1.9785, 1.9755 and ultimately 1.9705.

(click to enlarge)

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7-28-08

14:51 GMT – The GU pair stayed within the triangular breakout pattern overnight (from my last signal), rising to the of channel resistance (yellow lines below) where it is now. I still expect that signal to hold to hold true as the pattern in the same. In the short term I expect the price action to return to the triangle channel bottom (blue line) currently around 1.9875.

Trading Idea: Short-term shorts preferred below yellow channel trend line below, with targets at 1.9915, 1.9885 and 1.9855.

(click to enlarge)

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7-28-08

1:14a GMT – GBP/USD has been moving slowly downward over the past several weeks (yellow channel lines below), in a larger upward channel over the past few months (blue channel lines below). The downward channel has hit the bottom of the upward channel and has formed a nice triangle pattern (purple lines on chart below) and I believe the the breakout of that triangle will provide us with the direction of the pair to come in the next few weeks. The daily charts show a bearish picture over the past year so that is my inclination for the future, though the shorter term 4H charts (below) show a bullish channel (blue lines).

Trading Idea: look for the pair to breakout of the purple triangle lines below. Pair could go either way. Long targets are 1.9953 and 1.9987 in the mid-term. Short targets are 1.9836 and 1.9765 in the mid-term.

(click to enlarge)

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