Tagged "mixed signals"

Yesterday Recap: Good morning or good evening PipHutters – wherever you might live on this globe! It is a funny thing all this great technology that allows a group of people from all across the world (even the South Pole) to meet together and work together every day. As always, PipHut is about you all, the community, so thanks for making PipHut what it is :). Ok, enough of that. Yesterday was a relatively pointless day for the EUR/USD pair. It seemed like we were going to get some action around 1.3680, about 10 hours ago and the pair has more or less just drifted ever since. I took a two shorts on the pair on some bearish candlesticks for a net break even.

Daily Outlook: Here we are finally at 1.3700 (after 3 days of waiting) and, unfortunately the price has drifted so far that the technical picture is not as short term bearish as it once was. The price broke through the hourly falling trend resistance yesterday (a bullish sign) but left the daily trend resistance intact (a bearish sign) which is the top blue trend line on the graph below. We have also had two consecutive days of higher highs and higher lows. Toss the bullish candlesticks we’ve had the past few weeks on the weekly charts and their is ample reason to be looking for longs. Which leads me to my strategy to close out the week: given the mixed signals as to the trend I will continue to look for short confirmation candles at 1.3700 and (more importantly) at the daily resistance of 1.3740. But I will also be on the lookout for long opportunities in a return to 1.3625 support.

Trading Idea: It is Friday and we do have USD news (check the forex calendar for more details) coming out at 13:30 GMT so conservative trades are my preferred route today. Primary trade is a short in the area of falling trend resistance around 1.3740, with targets at 1.3710, 1.3680 and 1.3645 OR a long in the vicinity of 1.3625 support with candlestick confirmation. Bull targets from there are 1.3650, 1.3680 and 1.3710. A more aggressive trade (not my cup of tea on Fridays) would be a short at 1.3700 with targets down to 1.3600.

Happy trading today PipHutters and thanks for being such a great community to work with!

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8-3-08

17:18 GMT – The GU pair is giving off mixed signals on Sunday afternoon. Overall I expect the downside to hold out on both the 4H and the Daily charts but I will look to sell rallies. Their is a bullish RSI divergence on the 4H charts that indicates a possible rise in the pair to resistance at 1.9800, 1.9840 or even (if the news is strong enough) to the top of the channel resistance (yellow lines below) currently around 1.9875.

Trading Idea: short favored on rallies with targets ultimately down to 1.9675.

(click to enlarge)

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7-10-08

4:07a GMT – EUR/USD continues to give off mixed signals as traders look for a direction in the market. Support at 1.5755 was able to fight back the rise of the Euro on a horrible day for the US stock market, most likely on better than expected results with Oil prices. To add to the confusion a hidden bullish divergence (where the price makes higher lows and an oscillator – in this case the RSI – makes lower lows) has appeared on the four hour charts which could mean more Euro gains. I still like short positions on this pair as long as the pair does not close well above resistance between 1.5755 and 1.5765.

Mixed signals are beginning to break down on the daily charts as well, though monthly and weekly still show a bullish bias.

Trading Idea: Short targets below 1.5765 at 1.5715, 1.5675 and 1.5635.

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5-22-08

2:12a GMT – Mixed signals on the USD/JPY pair. Pair charged upward through resistance at 104.00 only to meet tougher resistance at 104.40 (the 68.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 105.4-102.7 drop). Pair bounced hard off that only to return to 104 and bounce off that as well. Two possible trend resistance lines were broken in yesterday’s upward charge but one remains (seen on chart below in blue). Bearish wick just bounced off this trend line making me lean toward bearish underneath it despite the upward pressure of 104.00.

Trading Idea: Mixed signals advise caution and to wait for a clear signal one way or another. I remain bearish under the blue trend line currently at 104.30. Beneath this look for 104.00 and 103.60 as targets. Above this trend line or off another 104.00 bounce look for 104.50 and then 104.90 as targets.

UPDATE – 6:19a GMT – To add to the mixed signals there is what appears to be a triangle consolidation pattern on top of the flagpole, which would indicate a bullish shoot upwards. Pattern and flagpole in yellow below:

Result: +70 pips

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