Tagged "monthly"

9-5-08

3:26a GMT – As the EUR/USD broke through strong support once again, we need to back out all the way to a monthly chart to take a look at where this might go next. The answer: the EUR/USD has more room to fall with the next major support at 1.4000 at the intersection of the 50% Fibonacci level (from the July 2005-March 2008 rise), the monthly trend support and a large round number.

Trading Idea: Look to sell rallies on shorter term charts down to 1.4000.

(click to enlarge)

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8-27-08

4:26a GMT – USD/CAD has plenty of room to fall on the 4-hour and daily charts, which is backed by a strong downtrend on the weekly and monthly charts. Oil prices have hit monthly lows and a rise in oil prices (which is a leading indicator for the CAD) would indicate a fall in the USD/CAD as the CAD strengthens. Pair is consolidating in a triangular pattern (yellow converging lines on chart below). Support is currently found above 1.0400. Below this level I expect a 100 pip fall to 1.0300 at a minimum.

Trading Idea: shorts favored on a break below 1.0400 with initial targets to 1.0300.

(click to enlarge)

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8-20-08

3:26a GMT – While daily analysis remains extremely bearish (except that they are heavily oversold) the weekly view offers a different view below. As you can see despite the recent selling of the pair the uptrend remains very much intact and is actually at strong monthly resistance. Yellow trend line below is drawn on the monthly chart if you are wondering why there are some breakthroughs. While my overall bias remains down pending new news out of Europe or the US (after a slight rise to ease oversold levels) this weekly view gives a good amount of reason to pause.

Trading Idea: the best trade here might be no trade until a clear direction is given, however I will be looking for candlestick entry signals near support and resistance levels. On bullish signals I would look for long targets all the way up to 1.5350. On a bearish breakthrough look for short targets down to 1.4475.

(click to enlarge)

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8-4-08

17:12 GMT – The USD/CAD pair is at strong daily, weekly, monthly resistance (currently around 1.0375, red line on daily chart below) and I will be looking for a sell opportunity. We have been in a short-term uptrend with the USD/CAD as oil prices have retreated but I think both are temporary and that the general USD weakness will bring this pair back down. Because this has been in a short term uptrend you might see a higher high than last time, possibly even up to 1.0400.

Also, the RSI just touched 70 (overbought) on the daily chart, a further indicator that this pair will turn around in the near future.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.0400 with targets at 1.0285, 1.0180, 1.0075 and 0.9990.

(click to enlarge)

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7-24-08

14:51 GMT – The EUR/USD is approaching a daily support line that also shows up on weekly and monthly charts as it has held since August of 2007 (purple line on chart below). The yellow line directly beneath the purple line (about 50 pips away) is another possible strong daily support line so I consider this the area in between these lines to be a buying zone.

Trading Idea: look for the pair to slow down as it approaches the support (currently between 1.5570 and 1.5500) and look for some candlestick confirmations on the 4H or 60M charts. Longs favored above yellow support line with targets at 1.5660, 1.5725, 1.5815 and 1.5900.

(click to enlarge)

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