9-2-08
4:00a GMT – USD/CAD is approaching strong daily resistance between 1.0700-1.0730. To strengthen the trade we have Hurricane Gustav touching down today and tomorrow against the US coast which will send shivers down oil speculators about US gulf production. An increase in oil prices will favor the CAD. This trade is against the overall uptrend but I feel that USD/CAD has a tendency to range trade and this looks like a good opp.
Trading Idea: look for bearish reversal candlestick to confirm trade with short targets at 1.0610, 1.0555 and 1.0455.

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8-29-08
5:11a GMT – The EUR/USD has bounced off 1.4600 this week as it eased off of oversold levels and raised up to 1.4800. The pair is heading south again as the US economy raised its GDP outlook and fears rise of a slowdown in the Europe. I expect the pair to stay beneath its 1.4800 resistance in the short term and fall for another shot at 1.4600.
Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.4800 with a target at 1.4605.

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8-20-08
3:26a GMT – While daily analysis remains extremely bearish (except that they are heavily oversold) the weekly view offers a different view below. As you can see despite the recent selling of the pair the uptrend remains very much intact and is actually at strong monthly resistance. Yellow trend line below is drawn on the monthly chart if you are wondering why there are some breakthroughs. While my overall bias remains down pending new news out of Europe or the US (after a slight rise to ease oversold levels) this weekly view gives a good amount of reason to pause.
Trading Idea: the best trade here might be no trade until a clear direction is given, however I will be looking for candlestick entry signals near support and resistance levels. On bullish signals I would look for long targets all the way up to 1.5350. On a bearish breakthrough look for short targets down to 1.4475.

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8-19-08
7:05a GMT – Not much has changed in the technical analysis of EUR/USD for the last few days – the pair remains overall bearish with room to run down to 1.4475. The major threat to the trade is that the dailies highly oversold and the market could be primed to consolidate and bounce toward 1.4900 or even 1.5000 on favorable news for the EUR.
Trading Idea: Looking to sell rallies. Looking for candlestick entries on the 4H and 60M and will be looking closely around resistance at 1.4850. Short targets at 1.4700, 1.4650 and eventually I expect a challenge of 1.4475.

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8-18-08
3:26a GMT – The GU pair offers perhaps one of the clearest fundamental pictures with the British economy showing clear signs of slowing and signals that their housing market will continue to deteriorate. Technically, as you might expect with those financial events, the GBP/USD is bearish and the pair has fallen over 1500 pips in the past month. The biggest threat to the downtrend is just how incredibly oversold the pair is on the 4 hour, daily and now the weekly charts. At some point traders will take profits or corporations will form some more substantial resistance.
Trading Idea: Looking to sell rallies once the pair is not oversold anymore, possibly around 1.8850 or even 1.9000.

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8-8-08
2:26a GMT – After my last EUR/USD full analysis predicting more losses I see more of the same as a major support level was broken this week below 1.5284. The pair is heavily oversold on almost all time frames up to and including daily charts so a slight rise to resistance between 1.5350-1.5380 could occur.
Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.5380 with targets back down to 1.5284, 1.5190 and eventually back down to 1.5055.

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8-6-08
5:00a GMT – The monthly/weekly outlook for EUR/USD remains to the upside, but the daily and especially the 4h charts are showing clear bearish patterns. In the short to mid-term I favor the downside with a possible rise to the red resistance trend line currently around 1.5575 before testing lows again. 4h RSI is just crosses back from oversold but the 60M and daily have plenty of room to fall.
Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.5550 with targets at 1.5515 and 1.5435.
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8-1-08
3:26a GMT – Pair briefly spiked today on slower US GDP growth than expected by big money immediately brought that down to previous levels as the picture in the UK is not much better. 1.9840 is our first level of resistance with 1.9905 holding the second resistance point. Pair is still caught in a bearish channel (yellow lines below) and fundmentals support continued GBP weakness. Consolidation over the past days has relieved oversold levels and opened up a fresh downside.
Trading Idea: shorts preferred below 1.9850 with targets at 1.9785, 1.9755 and ultimately 1.9705.

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7-31-08
4:26a GMT – AUD/USD has dropped about 80 pips since my last AUD/USD forex signal, and I think that those losses will continue. Pair is still trapped in an extremely bearish channel (yellow lines below). The biggest threat to the trade is an oversold 60M and 4H RSI and close to it on the daily charts. I would look for something of a bounce to cool off the oversold levels possibly to 0.9475 or even 0.9550 if the US stocks crash tomorrow. If no breaking news comes out a horizontal movement could occur as traders take profit before the weekend.
Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 0.9550 with targets at 0.9475, 0.9425 and 0.9355.

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7-29-08
1:43a GMT – The USD/CHF has formed a double-top formation on the 4H and 60M charts (easier to see on the 4H below) with 1.0400 capping possible gains. The double-top formation indicates further losses below the “neckline”.
Trading Idea: Aggressive traders may enter short below 1.0310 whereas more conservative traders might wait until at least 1.0295 to confirm the signal. Short targets at 1.0270, 1.0215 and 1.0160. If top is broken look for more gains and a retest of 1.0435.

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