6-3-08
19:08 GMT – AUD/USD got heavily sold off thanks in large part to the Fed’s comments about not letting the dollar get too weak. In the short-term, especially with the Dow still struggling to hold any gains I see support at .9510 holding strong against any attempts to break through it. There is also an RSI divergence on the 60M charts further supporting bulls for more gains.
Trading Idea: Long above .9510 with targets at .9540, .9570 and .95610.
Update: AUD/USD has made a clear break of .9510 without giving a bullish reversal candlestick above .9510. Signal is cancelled and we will look to sell on rallies.
Signal Review:Â Got the bounce right just the placement wrong. Pair has made lower highs and lower lows for past few days and trend lines on below chart shows it is caught in a bearish channel. Missed that one. The bearish doji above support would have provided a nice entry point as well before a 90+ (so far) pip rise.
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6-2-08
0:58a GMT – USD/CHF has a good trend support line from 5/27 and 5/28 lows on the 60M charts. A divergence on the RSI also indicated more USD gains against the CHF. Ultimately uptrend is intact as long as 1.0350 is not broken.
Trading Idea: Look for a dip to support levels at trend support in green (currently 1.037) or 1.035 support and enter long on bullish candlestick. Targets at 1.0410 and 1.0460 with 1.0550 in sight. If support is broke look for further downside at 1.0330 and 1.0280.
UPDATE – 6-2-08, 16:35p, USD/CHF charged through support levels with no candlestick entry to confirm trade. Good no trade.
Result: 0 pips
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5-21-08
18:10 GMT – The RSI divergence in the AUD/USD pair has only gotten stronger as the hours have ticked away. I expect a sharp drop at some point here.
Trading Idea: Look for bearish candlestick entry near channel resistance level.
Result: +60 pips
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5-21-08
7:17a GMT – AUD/USD has entered into a rising channel on the 60M charts. We are looking for a buying opportunity at the bottom of the channel or a selling opportunity if the RSI divergence continues. There was a definite RSI divergence between 5/16 and 5/20 price action as the price made a higher high and the RSI made a lower high.
Trading Idea: Look for a drop to the channel bottom and a candlestick entry along with a drop to RSI channel bottom. If the pair rises to the channel top we will look for selling opportunities if the RSI divergence is still there.
Result: +70 pips
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