Tagged "RSI"

7-31-09

5:02a GMT – Here we are, end of the week, end of the month! Time goes too quickly.. Yesterday’s signal for a 1.4115 short was never entered as no candlestick confirmation signal every occured. Looks like we might get one any bar here though, as the price action appears to be stalling out near 1.4125. Otherwise I am looking to reset short near 1.4150 now as the RSI would be oversold on 1hour, slow stock would be flipped and dipping below overbought, and on the 4-hour the RSI would be at resistance and the slow SS would be ready to flip in overbought territory.

Trading Idea: looking to reset short near resistance at 1.4150, with targets at 1.4105, 1.4070, 1.4005 and eventually 1.3955.

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9-4-08

3:19a GMT – EUR/USD is very bearish on all but the weekly and monthly charts (where solid support has yet to be broken) and I am looking to sell rallies. In the short term, however, caution is advised as a bullish reversal hammer formed yesterday on the daily charts right on strong daily support (right above 1.4475). On top of that a bullish RSI divergence has appeared on the daily charts.

Trading Idea: look for a bit of a rally in the EUR/USD before selling bearish reversal signals on strong rallies. At a minimum target back down to support at 1.4475. If you are cautious I would advise sitting this one out until clearer direction is given in the market.

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9-2-08

4:21a GMT – After our last successful short trade on the EU pair we are again looking to sell for another retreat down to 1.4475. Threats to trade are a very oversold level and the weekly/monthly support the pair is currently resting on. Down to 1.4450 would complete a nice double-top reversal and signal further EU losses.

Trading Idea: shorts favored down to 1.4475.

(click to enlarge)

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8-19-08

7:05a GMT – Not much has changed in the technical analysis of EUR/USD for the last few days – the pair remains overall bearish with room to run down to 1.4475. The major threat to the trade is that the dailies highly oversold and the market could be primed to consolidate and bounce toward 1.4900 or even 1.5000 on favorable news for the EUR.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell rallies. Looking for candlestick entries on the 4H and 60M and will be looking closely around resistance at 1.4850. Short targets at 1.4700, 1.4650 and eventually I expect a challenge of 1.4475.

(click to enlarge)

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8-15-08

6:00a GMT – EUR/USD remains bearish on the charts with a sustained break below 1.5000. Pair is stilling heavily oversold but a few more days of sideways movement should ease that. For those doubting which direction the trend is in the shorter term: the pair has dropped 1300 pips in the past 30 days. Remember – it is easier to ride the trend then to bet against it.

Trading Idea: As long as the pair remains below 1.5000 shorts are favored with targets at 1.4865, 1.4775, and eventually all the back to strong support at 1.4450.

(click to enlarge)

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8-8-08

2:26a GMT – After my last EUR/USD full analysis predicting more losses I see more of the same as a major support level was broken this week below 1.5284. The pair is heavily oversold on almost all time frames up to and including daily charts so a slight rise to resistance between 1.5350-1.5380 could occur.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.5380 with targets back down to 1.5284, 1.5190 and eventually back down to 1.5055.

(click to enlarge)

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8-6-08

5:00a GMT – The monthly/weekly outlook for EUR/USD remains to the upside, but the daily and especially the 4h charts are showing clear bearish patterns. In the short to mid-term I favor the downside with a possible rise to the red resistance trend line currently around 1.5575 before testing lows again. 4h RSI is just crosses back from oversold but the 60M and daily have plenty of room to fall.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.5550 with targets at 1.5515 and 1.5435.

(click to enlarge)

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8-4-08

17:12 GMT – The USD/CAD pair is at strong daily, weekly, monthly resistance (currently around 1.0375, red line on daily chart below) and I will be looking for a sell opportunity. We have been in a short-term uptrend with the USD/CAD as oil prices have retreated but I think both are temporary and that the general USD weakness will bring this pair back down. Because this has been in a short term uptrend you might see a higher high than last time, possibly even up to 1.0400.

Also, the RSI just touched 70 (overbought) on the daily chart, a further indicator that this pair will turn around in the near future.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.0400 with targets at 1.0285, 1.0180, 1.0075 and 0.9990.

(click to enlarge)

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7-30-08

1:44a GMT – EU has touched and bounced off of strong daily and weekly support after yesterdays retreat downward found no buyers willing to support the pair. Support can be found between yellow and purple lines on chart below, currently between 1.5585-1.5525. Pair also just crossed above 30 on the 60M RSI, a buy signal.

Trading Idea: Look for buying opportunities between these support levels as pair looks ready to rebound. I expect the pair to make a full recovery to 1.5900 with targets at 1.5660, 1.5725 and 1.5815 along the way.

(click to enlarge)

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7-2-08

5:09a GMT – Looking for an opportunity to buy on the latest consolidation between 106.15 and 105.10. RSI shows that the uptrend is still intact on the 4 hour charts.

Trading Idea: Long targets favored above 105.10 and will look for a candlestick entry, possibly around 105.60. Long targets include 106.15, 106.45 and 106.85. If support is broken look for a test of 104.50.

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