Tagged "USD/CAD"

7-28-09

4:06a GMT – I don’t normally do USD/CAD signals on PipHut but the USD/CAD is at major daily/weekly support and I thought I would share with everyone. On 4hour we are well oversold with a bullish divergence on the RSI and the slow stoch has just started to the upside. Unfortunately this has been the condition with the USD/CAD for days now and the downtrend has continued. Different this time though, is the daily chart. On the daily chart we can see we are on support that got a 1000 pip bounce last time it hit there. RSI and slow stoch are both oversold on the daily.The weekly confirms this, BUT the RSI on the weekly has not hit 30 (though does have a slightly bullish divergence from the support last time) and the slow stoch has not crossed over (though the stoch line is at 4! highly oversold).

Trading Idea: Long USD/CAD with target at below 23.6% of fib retracement, curently around 1.0640.

(click to enlarge)

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9-2-08

4:00a GMT – USD/CAD is approaching strong daily resistance between 1.0700-1.0730. To strengthen the trade we have Hurricane Gustav touching down today and tomorrow against the US coast which will send shivers down oil speculators about US gulf production. An increase in oil prices will favor the CAD. This trade is against the overall uptrend but I feel that USD/CAD has a tendency to range trade and this looks like a good opp.

Trading Idea: look for bearish reversal candlestick to confirm trade with short targets at 1.0610, 1.0555 and 1.0455.

(click to enlarge)

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8-27-08

4:26a GMT – USD/CAD has plenty of room to fall on the 4-hour and daily charts, which is backed by a strong downtrend on the weekly and monthly charts. Oil prices have hit monthly lows and a rise in oil prices (which is a leading indicator for the CAD) would indicate a fall in the USD/CAD as the CAD strengthens. Pair is consolidating in a triangular pattern (yellow converging lines on chart below). Support is currently found above 1.0400. Below this level I expect a 100 pip fall to 1.0300 at a minimum.

Trading Idea: shorts favored on a break below 1.0400 with initial targets to 1.0300.

(click to enlarge)

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8-4-08

17:12 GMT – The USD/CAD pair is at strong daily, weekly, monthly resistance (currently around 1.0375, red line on daily chart below) and I will be looking for a sell opportunity. We have been in a short-term uptrend with the USD/CAD as oil prices have retreated but I think both are temporary and that the general USD weakness will bring this pair back down. Because this has been in a short term uptrend you might see a higher high than last time, possibly even up to 1.0400.

Also, the RSI just touched 70 (overbought) on the daily chart, a further indicator that this pair will turn around in the near future.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.0400 with targets at 1.0285, 1.0180, 1.0075 and 0.9990.

(click to enlarge)

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6-28-08

6:28a GMT – Shorts remain my favorites for the USD/CAD pair as it traces down from its 1.03 monthly high to its range bottom. Concerns are a possible bullish divergence in the 4 hour RSI charts.

Trading Idea: In the short to mid-term shorts at 1.0125 should hold for a test of 1.0080 and 1.0025. If resistance is broken at 1.0135 look for test of 1.0190 on the upside.

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6-23-08

7:54a GMT – USD/CAD has failed to break its 1.0300 resistance again leaving the charts open for further losses in the pair. I expect shorter term resistance at 1.0210 to hold.

Trading Idea: Below 1.0210 look for short targets of 1.0155 and 1.0105. If 1.0210 is broken look for a retest of 1.0255 and 1.0300.

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6-9-08

3:34a GMT – Part of being a successful trader is looking not only your own “comfort” chart time but also looking at the bigger picture as well. This week I chose to post my daily chart analysis for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY. I do the analysis on all the pairs I trade, and recommend you do the same for the “big picture” but don’t have time to post them all.

Want to see a different pair next week? Post your comments below!

EUR/USD: Since late April the EUR/USD has been trading in a 1.58-1.53 range. If you back out for the year, however, you see that technically speaking the pair has only had a brief retracement on the Euro’s rise. A close below 1.53 would be necessary to open the door for more losses. The fundamentals support the Euro’s rise too with Trichet stating that the ECB may raise rates as soon as the end of the month (talk about a leading indicator). On the daily short, in the short term, we see the two-day rise that Trichet’s comments caused. The pair has yet to break the 1.5820 high necessary to open the door to a 1.59 and 1.60 test. In short, the daily charts are bullish and we will look to buy on dips.

USD/JPY: UJ looks poised for more gains as the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows as many Elliot Wave theorists were calling for a run done after a possible third wave. On the daily chart the pair has the 10, 20, 30, 50 EMAs lined up in an uptrend and the price action has closed above the 100-day EMA several times in the past weeks. Also pair has just bounced off the trend line support (blue line below) and is again on the rise. A challenge of support at 106.00 looks likely with the break challenging 107.00 We will look to buy on dips.

AUD/USD: Pair gained ground last week for another test of .9640, which remains strong resistance for the pair. Though gold (red line on chart) has been dropping since its March high over 1000, general USD weakness has allowed the Aussie to continue to gain against the greenback. The MACD is just flipping to a buy signal but I will wait for a further dip to the .9500 or .9550 trend line support area for a buying opportunity.

CAD/USD: Pair is returning to the top of its .9830-1.0275 range as oil (red line on chart) continues to soar last week, signaling a possible return to the downside with any positive USD news at all. Oil and the loonie share a high correlation. Would look for selling opportunities around a bearish candlestick reversal signal above 1.0250, especially if oil continues to rise this week, however a bullish hidden divergence on the RSI gives me pause. I’m sitting on the sidelines of this one until a better direction is evident.

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5-22-08

2:25a GMT – Pair is nearing resistance (blue line on graph below) that has been tested numerous times over the past month. Trend is down and I don’t expect that to be broken here. Resistance is currently at .9890 and below this look for .9850 and .9800 as targets. If the pair breaks resistance above .9890 look for .9920 and .9950 as targets

Trading Idea: Look for bearish candlestick near resistance line or clear bounce off resistance and enter short.

Result: -40 pips

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6:18a GMT – USD/CAD has been consolidating in a tight horizontal channel now for the second day after the 100 pip drop from 1.000. Due to the declining trend lines, the declining RSI hourlies and the nice horizontal line that the candlesticks are forming along the 0.9900 support I expect the pair will break through. Look for .9975 and then .9950 as the next support levels ( support back in early March).

Trading idea: place an entry sell order 10 to 15 pips below the support level at 0.9900 with targets around the .9950 range.

UPDATE – 8:01a GMT – after a 31 pip decline to .9875 the pair rebounded sharply and produced a bullish engulfing candlestick all the way back up to .9920. This is why breakout orders on the USD/CAD make me nervous ;)

Weekly update – Pair did drop to .98770, a 31 pip decline from where the pair was at the time of analysis. ATR was about 15.7 with a 3 pip spread so a stop/L1 of 20 would have been sufficient, meaning this would have been a profitable trade of +20 pips at least. On this pair, in a strong downtrend I would much prefer buying on rallies though, as the trades have a much higher chance of hitting my L2 and L3 meaning the money management scenario is way better.

USD/CAD is for the third time in three days meeting support around 1.000.

Though this against the downtrend aggressive traders might look for a candlestick entry point or a possible head and shoulders reversal formation.

UPDATE: 19:14 GMT: USD/CAD did bounce off the 1.000 support and rose for 30 pips. It nearly touched its trendline resistance again which was then at 1.0050. Pair is now consolidating around 1.000 again.