Tagged "USD/JPY"

12-2-08

0:26a GMT – USD/JPY has fallen 200 pips in the past day and over 1300 pips in the past three months. Though I expect this to slow somewhat I am looking to sell the USD/JPY with the trend, as the bearish outlook persists. Nearest resistance is actually on the 1-hour charts (not very visible below) around 93.75. Eventually I will look for re-challenge of 91.00.

Trading Idea: looking to sell rallies above 93.75 on signs of a bearish reversal for a test of 91.00

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10-17-08

3:00a GMT – I thought I would change it up today and do an analysis of USD/JPY since I haven’t posted on this pair for awhile. The pair has seen some dramatic volatility in the past months, going from a 10-year low 8 months ago, steadily rised 1000 pips for 6 months, and has seen a 1000 pip drop in the past 2 months. In the long term I see this pair bouncing around in the sub-100 area to low-100 area, possibly in a range trade situation. As such, I am looking for bullish reversal signals between the 99.00-99.25 support area.

Trading Idea: Look for bullish reversal signals between the 99.00-99.25 support area, with long targets favored back up to  101.85, 102.85 and 105.00.

(click to enlarge)
 

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9-9-08

5:06a GMT – USD/JPY shows weakness on the 4 hour charts and mixed signals on the dailies, but the technical picture shows more losses in the short term. Resistance is at 108.00 with a downside return to 106.00 likely.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 108.00 with targets down to 106.00. Above 108.00 look for limited gains, possibly to 109.00.

(click to enlarge)

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8-26-08

4:33a GMT – The USD/JPY has been lifted in the past month on a stronger USD and weak news coming out of Japan. As traders look for further direction with the dollar a decent range trade has emerged between 110 and 108. If you prefer buying with the trend then buying at the lower end of this range would be preferred as the pair has been in a steady uptrend for months.

Trading Idea: look for bullish reversal candlesticks to confirm the trade near 108 and bearish candlestick reversals around 110.

(click to enlarge)

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7-21-08

3:21a GMT – The USD/JPY appears to have technically entered a bear channel on the 4H charts (and possibly on the dailies though a close below 103.60 is needed to confirm) and the price action has once again crashed against and bounced off of this resistance (blue line on chart below). Additional technical resistance can be seen at 107.55.  As such I expect a return to the downside.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 107.05 with targets at 106.10, 105.75 and 105.25. If resistance is broken look for a test of 107.25 and 107.55.

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7-10-08

4:22a GMT – The UJ pair presents a pretty technically sound bullish picture as the pair has been in a pretty steady uptrend since mid-March on daily and 4 hour charts. Current support is between 106.50 and 106.25, between which may offer some good entry points.

Trading Idea: Look for a bullish reversal candlestick to confirm the trade with long targets at 106.95, 107.35 and 107.65. I support is broken look for a return to lower support between 105.50 and 105.25.

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7-2-08

5:09a GMT – Looking for an opportunity to buy on the latest consolidation between 106.15 and 105.10. RSI shows that the uptrend is still intact on the 4 hour charts.

Trading Idea: Long targets favored above 105.10 and will look for a candlestick entry, possibly around 105.60. Long targets include 106.15, 106.45 and 106.85. If support is broken look for a test of 104.50.

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6-24-08

7:14a GMT – Pair has remained in a steady uptrend since mid-March and we look to continue to buy on dips. Caution is advised however as corrections are common with the general USD weakness (though news out of Japan is increasingly bleak as well). Make sure solid candlestick signals are given on at least the 4h charts to enter.

Trading Idea: Pair remains in a tight, short-term consolidation channel that could return it to support at either 106.95 or 106.40. Candlesticks will lets us know where to enter with long targets at 107.25, 107.85 and 108.45.

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6-9-08

3:34a GMT – Part of being a successful trader is looking not only your own “comfort” chart time but also looking at the bigger picture as well. This week I chose to post my daily chart analysis for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY. I do the analysis on all the pairs I trade, and recommend you do the same for the “big picture” but don’t have time to post them all.

Want to see a different pair next week? Post your comments below!

EUR/USD: Since late April the EUR/USD has been trading in a 1.58-1.53 range. If you back out for the year, however, you see that technically speaking the pair has only had a brief retracement on the Euro’s rise. A close below 1.53 would be necessary to open the door for more losses. The fundamentals support the Euro’s rise too with Trichet stating that the ECB may raise rates as soon as the end of the month (talk about a leading indicator). On the daily short, in the short term, we see the two-day rise that Trichet’s comments caused. The pair has yet to break the 1.5820 high necessary to open the door to a 1.59 and 1.60 test. In short, the daily charts are bullish and we will look to buy on dips.

USD/JPY: UJ looks poised for more gains as the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows as many Elliot Wave theorists were calling for a run done after a possible third wave. On the daily chart the pair has the 10, 20, 30, 50 EMAs lined up in an uptrend and the price action has closed above the 100-day EMA several times in the past weeks. Also pair has just bounced off the trend line support (blue line below) and is again on the rise. A challenge of support at 106.00 looks likely with the break challenging 107.00 We will look to buy on dips.

AUD/USD: Pair gained ground last week for another test of .9640, which remains strong resistance for the pair. Though gold (red line on chart) has been dropping since its March high over 1000, general USD weakness has allowed the Aussie to continue to gain against the greenback. The MACD is just flipping to a buy signal but I will wait for a further dip to the .9500 or .9550 trend line support area for a buying opportunity.

CAD/USD: Pair is returning to the top of its .9830-1.0275 range as oil (red line on chart) continues to soar last week, signaling a possible return to the downside with any positive USD news at all. Oil and the loonie share a high correlation. Would look for selling opportunities around a bearish candlestick reversal signal above 1.0250, especially if oil continues to rise this week, however a bullish hidden divergence on the RSI gives me pause. I’m sitting on the sidelines of this one until a better direction is evident.

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6-9-08

01:06 GMT – Part of being a successful trader is looking not only your own “comfort” chart time but also looking at the bigger picture as well. This week I chose to post my weekly chart analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. I do the analysis on all the pairs I trade, and recommend you do the same for the “big picture” but don’t have time to post them all.

Want to see a different pair next week? Post your comments below!

EUR/USD: As you can see on the chart below the EUR/USD is still firmly in an uptrend unless a clean break of 1.5284 is made. EMA20 (green line) has been acting as good support for the pair since early 2007 and last week showed us a strong bounce of this support. A close this week above 1.58 would confirm the resumption of the uptrend and is likely. The last time the weekly charts looked as they do now was in late 2007 when the pair was in a 1.43-1.50 range, which ended up breaking to the upside off a bounce of the EMA20 and challenging 1.60. Look for a similar result in the coming weeks with a challenge of 1.70.

USD/JPY: I believe that since 6/07 the UJ pair has been in a good Elliot Wave model drop with the rally below 100 the last hoorah of the 5th leg. Whether we are in the 1st leg or the 3rd leg of the retracement is a matter of debate (what’s not in Forex? ;). Last week’s candlestick was bearish but did make a new high and showed decent buying pressure. I don’t believe the doji means much considering the pair has been in choppy trading for the past several weeks. I expect to see more gains this coming week, but this next week will help to show the direction of the pair. Also the RSI closed above 50 for the first time in almost a year. A concern is definitely the EMA30 which has provided resistance for the pair in the past and also the resistance at 106.35 (former weekly support). A close above 106.50 would clear the way for the EMA50 currently around 108.

The exponential moving averages are still aligned in a downtrend though the EMA10 has flipped up and if the retracement continues will soon cross the EMA20.

USD/CHF: Pair remains locked in a clear downtrend, is getting pushed down by the EMA20 resistance (solid resistance since 7/07) and its RSI has just bounced off of 50 to the downside after posting a bearish hidden divergence a few weeks back. Selling near the EMA20 looks like the best strategy though last week’s candlestick was a bearish engulfing so we may or may not get another opportunity on the weekly chart for awhile.

Major concern is that the pair is in the 2nd retracement leg of a 5-3 Elliot Wave model retracement (since the possible 5 wave drop beginning 7/07), meaning a third retracement to the 1.0750 area could occur before more losses.

GBP/USD: The GU pair continues in its bearish channel since the trend reversal on 11/07. Two weeks ago we had a bearish doji that was NOT confirmed by a bearish close under the previous candlestick. Instead we saw a wave of buying at the end of the week courtesy of the ECB comments about the Euro rate increase. Until we see a close above 2.02, though, the pair remains bearish. From the weekly chart below we can see the best strategy for the week will probably be to sell of channel tops.

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