Tagged "USD/JPY"

6-4-08

19:39 GMT – USD/JPY is approaching resistance currently around 105.50. Technically I expect the pair to bounce off this resistance. RSI also shows the pair approaching its trendline but is nowhere near severely oversold leaving the risk of a breakout.

Trading Idea: Look for bearish candlestick around 105.5 to confirm reversal and short for targets at 105.10 and 104.75. Channel could extend all the way down to 104.30. If resistance is broken look for a challenge of 105.75.

UPDATE – 00:01 GMT 6-6-08 – Pair charged through resistance and nearly broke 107.00 before coming back down to a 106-105.5 range. No bearish candlestick confirmed trade so no trade was entered.

Result: 0 pips.

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6-3-08

5:56a GMT – Bullish hammer is forming minutes before candlestick close on the 05:00a candlestick GMT. If bullish hammer (wick is twice as long as body) does close then it would indicate a reversal pattern. Since this is right on a support line (in green) I will enter long two lots.

Update – Nice 130-pip rise from the the bullish signal entry to the top of the channel. Image below.

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6-1-08

23:50 GMT – The uptrend in the mid-term remains intact (though the daily downtrend is still technically intact as well). I am looking to buy dips, preferably down to stronger support at 105.00 but I will also look for a strong bullish candlestick on a test of the trending support line currently around 105.25.

Trading Idea: Look to buy dips as long as support level at 104.90 is not broken. Long short term targets are 105.3 and 105.7 with a test of 106 in sight. If support is broken look for further downside to 104.7 and 104.3

UPDATE – USD/JPY, like most dollar pairs today, smashed through support levels. There was no bullish entry signal so no trade was entered. Good no trade. Will look for selling opportunities on rallies.

Result: 0 pips

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5-30-08

00:38a GMT – USD/JPY pair is consolidating above former resisance (now support) at 105.40. Hourlies are overbought but I am looking for this support to hold.

Trading Idea: Above 105.30 look for 105.8 and 106.3. If support is broken look for 105.00 and 104.50

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5-28-08

6:28a GMT – A bullish doji is forming on the USD/JPY pair near former resistance trend line (now support).

Trading Idea: If the candlestick closes as a doji on the 60M charts (30 minutes left) I will buy 2 lots, one with a 20 pip target, the other with a 40 pip target and move to break even on the first limit.

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5-22-08

2:12a GMT – Mixed signals on the USD/JPY pair. Pair charged upward through resistance at 104.00 only to meet tougher resistance at 104.40 (the 68.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 105.4-102.7 drop). Pair bounced hard off that only to return to 104 and bounce off that as well. Two possible trend resistance lines were broken in yesterday’s upward charge but one remains (seen on chart below in blue). Bearish wick just bounced off this trend line making me lean toward bearish underneath it despite the upward pressure of 104.00.

Trading Idea: Mixed signals advise caution and to wait for a clear signal one way or another. I remain bearish under the blue trend line currently at 104.30. Beneath this look for 104.00 and 103.60 as targets. Above this trend line or off another 104.00 bounce look for 104.50 and then 104.90 as targets.

UPDATE – 6:19a GMT – To add to the mixed signals there is what appears to be a triangle consolidation pattern on top of the flagpole, which would indicate a bullish shoot upwards. Pattern and flagpole in yellow below:

Result: +70 pips

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5-21-08

18:21 GMT – Entered flagpole breakout entry above consolidation at 104.00. Consolidation made nice pattern, flagpole was 90 pips and trade is in direction of flagpole. Also pair was making nice horizontal stabs at 104.00 resistance, a large round #. Negatives include the possibly strong trend support below 104.5 (and very close to my limit) and the resistance at 104.50

Buy – 104.195
S – 103.945 (25 pips)
L1 – 104.445 (25 pips, move second stop stop to BE)
L2 – 104.795 (60 pips)

(Having issue with my screen capture, will get a chart up here ASAP)

Alright here’s my screen capture (by the time I got the screen captured we are 14 pips in the profit per lot, hope you weren’t waiting on this!)

UPDATE – Mixed hourly signals. A bearish candle followed our breakout and pair may have bounced off of 61.8% daily retracement of latest drop or the trend line resistance. Positives are that the former resistance at 104.2 should now be strong support. No shame in closing this trade after that bearish candlestick though. I am tightening my stop to 5 pips below the support at 104.147.

UPDATE – Well, as I suggested above I did close that trade out at a small loss of 10 pips, so that will go up into the May Forex performance (top left). According to my ticker the original stop was never hit so this one would be still be open. The technicals on this one are mixed without a clear direction as you will see in my technical analysis I will post soon.

RESULT: -10 pips

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5-21-08

6:29a GMT – Pair has broken below support level at 103.40 and is currently consolidating below that level. We will look for selling opportunities as the pair approaches now resistance at 103.40.

Trading Idea: Wait for a candlestick entry on a clear bounce off resistance to sell. Rising trend line is still currently intact from 5/9 lows and a major channel could be forming. Also, rising RSI trend line from that date is still intact as well. If the pair does not close below 103.40 today then look for buying opportunities above that 103.40.

Result: +70 pips

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6:41a GMT – Looking for a sharp rise in the USD/JPY as it bounces off multi-support currently around 103.80. This support has been tested numerous times over the months and we will await a candlestick signal to confirm. Pair is also bouncing off of a rising RSI trend line on the 60M charts.

Trading idea: look for candlestick signal to confirm the bounce and enter near the support line.

UPDATE – 21:52 GMT – We did see a doji form on the charts but since it closed below the support trend line we did not enter a trade. Pair did rise about 35 pips from that doji before charging down below the trend support line. The pair is now consolidating above strong May support at 103.50. Breakout trades below this make us nervous as the pair has shown that it can and will pierce that line.

Weekly Review: ATR was around 20 so a 25 pip stop would have been used. L1 would have been hit for a 25 pip profit even though the pair rose 35 pips total. L2 would have been at least 104.4 for 50 pips, which was not hit.